Thx, China factor is an important factor, but as long as these Chinese companies can generate a reasonable stream of cash flow, profits and dividended, they shoudl also have a reasonable PE level. And 24000 is not a particularly high level.
We dont know, but some of the money may be from hk investors. They may also aware of the risks of us stock market. So we have to wait and see. The thing is it is unlikely all the money leaving us deposit will go to us market. My guess is at least half will still invest in hk. You may observe that HKD is going to the strong side, if it hits 7.75, meaning the conversion of usd to hkd is obvious.
Everytime when I say sth about the HK market, there are a lot of people who already have political stance will leave dirty words on the comment place. I welcome rational discussions. Disgreement is ok if they also state which part they disagree, provide their reasons and data. My channel is not a platform for people to express their feeling and for public debate. It is not about freedom of speech, it is about mutual respect. I welcome high quality audence, but dont like people who only scold and argue without rational argument and data. People can still express their vies in other platform, or contact me via my email and other methods if they would like to have a rational discussion. Please state your questions here. And please do not repeatly put down same comment on different videos, as you claim you are also a doctor, so should not have behavior like a child.
As people coming to hk to study and travel keep increasing, rent will still be rising. If housing price goes further down, then rental yield will reach 4 to 5 or even 6 percent. Given time deposit interest rate will drop below 3 percent due to US rate cut, if you think housing price will have further big drop, you must explain why investors will not choose to buy property with 6 percent rental yield, but still put money in a 2 percent time deposit. If you cannot explain this, there is no reason to believe housing price will drop simply because of political believe.
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 but this is just a calculated scenario. How to explain that the developer still accumulated over 30000 new flats but the sale is not satisfactory. Besides, as Hong Kong will continues to blend and merge into Greater Bay Area, and the flat price of Hong Kong would be re-evaluated. How is your justification that Hong Kong flat price will continue to rise only based on the reduction of interest rate?
@@albertchan4101 it is just a matter of how much the cut of interest is, and we have to see what happen if there is a cut of say 2 to 3 percent or even higher. Excess supply is only a short term issue, and will be digested as time goes by and no more land supply in these few years will also create a future cycle of not enough housing after 5 years. HK still have big demand for it living space from outsiders, especially students from mainland and east asia, these people will not go to mainland GBA cities as there is no top universities, where hk has 5 university ranks to 100 globally, it is difficult to find a city that has 5 top 100 universities. Once HK becomes an international education hub, its rent will become stable no matter the economy is good or bad, just like London, rent is still very high even in economic downturs. So the rent in HK will not be converging with the GBA, and the housing price convergence will only up to a certain degree. So we just wait and see what will happen in the coming year when interest rate keeps dropping. No meaning to argue for sth that has not happened.
Bit coin can help people moving money out of their own countries anonymously, this function cannot be served by any legal institutitions like banks, but the demand is huge. Among all the crytos, people only trust bitcoin for this function. So its major value comes from this shipping function. Also, as there are already legal exchanges for bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs, these infrastructure are irreplacible. In the future, many funds may include a certain percentage of bitcoin in their portfolios. So bitcoin performance will be better than other crytos.
It is not China or HK that started all these trade war and sanctions. If other countries are sanctioning us, a normal attitude is to counter act, not to welcome. US did all these just for its own interest. China and HK never started conflicts with US, we just react. If other people are beating you, will you just let them beat?
感謝莊教授十分有用的分享！
Welcome Ron
減息對大環境在刺激作用。起碼供緊高息既借貸人供少左息，多返錢再做其他投資
觀點客觀，中肯。小巿民需要呢種聲音，坊間充斥唱衰或唱好的言論，小巿民難免受到影響，作出錯誤的投資決定。
Thx Simon
Thank you Prof Chong
Welcome Charles
謝謝莊教授的分享。請教莊教授兩個問題。1. 教授提到恆生指數可能會上升到24000，恆生指數中概股佔有相當權重，可是中國經濟不好，除了減息的因素外，是否也將中國經濟的因素考慮進去呢？2. 美元利息降低了，是否有甚麼穩定的投資，可以取代美元呢？
Thx, China factor is an important factor, but as long as these Chinese companies can generate a reasonable stream of cash flow, profits and dividended, they shoudl also have a reasonable PE level. And 24000 is not a particularly high level.
教授請問有幾大可能在港美元留低 , 但唔係兌換港幣, 而用美元在港買美股, 咁咪即係對港股或港樓承托昨用影響細???
We dont know, but some of the money may be from hk investors. They may also aware of the risks of us stock market. So we have to wait and see. The thing is it is unlikely all the money leaving us deposit will go to us market. My guess is at least half will still invest in hk. You may observe that HKD is going to the strong side, if it hits 7.75, meaning the conversion of usd to hkd is obvious.
教授我始終認為聯儲局餘下兩次會議總減0.5%,每次0.25%即2024底前減1厘,香港銀行也有極大機會再減0.25%.即今年底香港也有可能減0.5%.
明年第二季香港也有機會再減多0.5%,總減1厘,美國減1.75%（明年6個月內再減0.75%）,原因聯儲局都有政治責任,雖然話獨立,但是局內有投票權委員都應該傾向支持賀錦麗.
因為特當選反而會換鮑威爾,從而改革聯储局委員.
關於樓市,始終貨尾23000-25000伙+將會落成20000伙, total 45000-50000 伙未來3-4年,尤其是啟德、屯門、西沙,要清25000伙貨尾,今年沒有補充地皮儲備,製造4年後樓宇斷層,只要貨尾跌至10000伙（包括超級豪宅在內）.
自自然,傳媒便會大合奏.
製造剛需.
這兩、三年輸入專才、人才、學生來滿足租賃需求便不會令樓價再下跌.
因為供平過租,供樓始終有55-60%是本金,到時會有一班（只要有5千個人出來買樓,不論一手定二手）,便會有蝴蝶效應出來.
謝謝！
Thx Ping
鮑威爾已經到期退休根本不需要看任何人面色；聯儲局目標是對方通脹不是刺激經濟，經濟好不是靠低利息這是基本邏輯，租金比定期高不代表有錢人會投資香港物業（因為有其他投資工具），而且大家不提香港人對現在跌了27％後還是世界最高價的樓市的負擔能力和政府對長遠房屋政策觀點，百物騰貴根本源於地產，這是導致香港競爭力下降的元兇，包括大陸學生在香港付出昂貴的租金是不正常的，高材通的人材肯定有錢，但他們大部分累積的財富主要是在國內的人民幣和資產，他們不能合法地隨便換成港幣來香港或海外買資產，否則會被利用成走資渠道！減息會使得收租的業主傾向保留物業這個是肯定的！
@@wongwesley4147 我嘗試回應你的問題,但是大家已有既定立場,當然我一定會堅持我的觀點.
1）鮑威爾好像任期至明年（2025年）.我個人觀感來的,因為特已講明他的經濟感覺是不比聯儲局任何一個人差.作為現任主席,和其他委員聽後,每人必有自己盤算.
2）減息會否直接刺激經濟,我覺得等於經濟不好時做基建工程,私人大企業借平錢作投資,唔多唔少也會帶動經濟.
3）香港租金昂貴,影響小商戶營運這個是香港特殊產品.過往已經影響30-40多年經商環境,但是香港這麼被壟斷,已經很難改變,超級市場家樂福也敗在兩大超市, Wendy's,Jack in the box 輸比麥當勞,這個改變不了,香港人鐘意一窩蜂,當樓市出現獲利新聞,這自然便有投資者出來買樓投資.
此外,只要租金有3.5厘扣除稅、差餉、管理費,仍然有1.5厘回報,都會有人把錢泊在私人住宅,因為買樓的人是會望10多年后有樓收租回報多於短期的微利回報.
定息一減至低於3.5厘-3厘（P)-1.75%:P 約4.825%,供樓利息約2.5%-3%便會供平過租,但都要落實減息才能看到到時有多大威力.
最後銀行也會把定息存款降低,這是雙向刀,兩邊永遠行相反方向.銀行不會行單邊.
謝
@@pinglam2391 見到回覆交流一下：1）對於猜度鮑的心態和人格我沒有資格，但鮑不需要看他人面色的條件是明顯的 。 2）減利息如果可以刺激經濟，那麼日本一早就擺脫通宿了 3）歐美正常供樓是人工的5到6年，就是最高的時候也是 10 到 11 年，而香港供樓要不食不住16 年，之前是21 年。在這個基礎上，你認為香港政府願意和有能力維持前政府的高地價的政策嗎？我不排除有人在這價位買樓收租，但正常人要看到負擔比率要跌到香港人平均收入的12 年以下和長期低利息成為趨勢後，才會有長期投資者入市，更何況2047 年後有關界限街以北樓房的年期續約和地租問題還待政府公佈。謝謝！
謝謝莊教授。
請問減息會否推高貴金屬和資源價格？但通常在經濟衰退時減息的。減息時，市場又會憂慮經濟衰退，沽資源和能源商品。
好像有互相衝突的因素影響資源價格。
Price of gold may rise, but oil is independent of us interest rate, more on geo politics.
定期資金邊到嚟就一定去返邊到？
18000同30000就拎24000中位數？
完全冇推論㗎喎😂
Thank you for providing figures in the direction of fund flow in the current years!
Welcome Sabrina
想问一下Prof 点解在你最新的港股同中国股市视频中Block 咗comment 部分而唔俾人发言? 我重等你回复我三点问题！係唔係驚咗我这个中国通的经济学博士 （我唔係Professor 级别）?
Everytime when I say sth about the HK market, there are a lot of people who already have political stance will leave dirty words on the comment place. I welcome rational discussions. Disgreement is ok if they also state which part they disagree, provide their reasons and data. My channel is not a platform for people to express their feeling and for public debate. It is not about freedom of speech, it is about mutual respect. I welcome high quality audence, but dont like people who only scold and argue without rational argument and data. People can still express their vies in other platform, or contact me via my email and other methods if they would like to have a rational discussion.
Please state your questions here.
And please do not repeatly put down same comment on different videos, as you claim you are also a doctor, so should not have behavior like a child.
好！入股市炒一轉🎉🎉🎉
樓就讓俾有勇之士喇！😂😂😂
教授，計減息所以利息支出細咗再化返落樓價個7.5% ，本身供樓個tenor係30年，咁suppose個息差洗唔洗計返time value of money?
Just a rough calculation, of course you may add more considerations in the calculation
Thanks professor chong
@@JL-zd3je welcome
感謝教授。由銀行存款分佈去分析股市，獲益良多。
Welcome KH
唔太同意，我認為應該要包括埋中美博栾的政治因素再作分析。另外，想問問樓市是否只是死貓彈一下就再跌？你看法如何？
As people coming to hk to study and travel keep increasing, rent will still be rising. If housing price goes further down, then rental yield will reach 4 to 5 or even 6 percent. Given time deposit interest rate will drop below 3 percent due to US rate cut, if you think housing price will have further big drop, you must explain why investors will not choose to buy property with 6 percent rental yield, but still put money in a 2 percent time deposit. If you cannot explain this, there is no reason to believe housing price will drop simply because of political believe.
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 but this is just a calculated scenario. How to explain that the developer still accumulated over 30000 new flats but the sale is not satisfactory. Besides, as Hong Kong will continues to blend and merge into Greater Bay Area, and the flat price of Hong Kong would be re-evaluated. How is your justification that Hong Kong flat price will continue to rise only based on the reduction of interest rate?
@@albertchan4101 it is just a matter of how much the cut of interest is, and we have to see what happen if there is a cut of say 2 to 3 percent or even higher. Excess supply is only a short term issue, and will be digested as time goes by and no more land supply in these few years will also create a future cycle of not enough housing after 5 years. HK still have big demand for it living space from outsiders, especially students from mainland and east asia, these people will not go to mainland GBA cities as there is no top universities, where hk has 5 university ranks to 100 globally, it is difficult to find a city that has 5 top 100 universities. Once HK becomes an international education hub, its rent will become stable no matter the economy is good or bad, just like London, rent is still very high even in economic downturs. So the rent in HK will not be converging with the GBA, and the housing price convergence will only up to a certain degree.
So we just wait and see what will happen in the coming year when interest rate keeps dropping. No meaning to argue for sth that has not happened.
請問 人民幣 會 上升？ 升多少？ 因為 我高位 賣了 國內單位！
If rmb falls below 7, may reach 6.8
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 多謝謝您的意見！💐💐💐
@@lou8797 welcome
請問教授點睇比特幣？
Bit coin can help people moving money out of their own countries anonymously, this function cannot be served by any legal institutitions like banks, but the demand is huge. Among all the crytos, people only trust bitcoin for this function. So its major value comes from this shipping function. Also, as there are already legal exchanges for bitcoin and bitcoin ETFs, these infrastructure are irreplacible. In the future, many funds may include a certain percentage of bitcoin in their portfolios. So bitcoin performance will be better than other crytos.
呢條友仔分析能力喺香港都算數一數二
外資却鄉步， 長遠 香港經濟 難樂觀!!
莊教授, 謝謝分享, 減息幅度大, 美國通脹會否重臨？ 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
If the economy collapses, will not have high inflation
錢平了！更係買股票！700升到700$😊
钱会继续贬值 我都会买楼 宜家楼ok 特别大陆
人民币升值，不利出口，香港也得不到好處，
hello 教授 減息幅度咁大會唔會預示美國會大蕭條？
聯儲局可能有些數據我們看不見，從加息的速度可看出Powell的作風，加減息會比較快和激進，但美國經濟暗病很久，會有一次大調整。
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391 教授會唔會有預測幾時會有比較既大調整？
@@ShortChinatil47 I think first must have a stock market crash first, it is likely within this year.
@@profterencechongtheeconomi8391咁即係東升西降?
@@ShortChinatil47 这个可能不低
美國佬減少少息原來可以救香港所有經濟，點解正苦又耍向美國開戰，佢系你衣食父母
It is not China or HK that started all these trade war and sanctions. If other countries are sanctioning us, a normal attitude is to counter act, not to welcome. US did all these just for its own interest. China and HK never started conflicts with US, we just react. If other people are beating you, will you just let them beat?
👍👍👍👍