I wonder to what degree we will program the robots to have agency. Say we have a housekeeper robot, and I buy one for my house. Obviously it will do the things I ask it to do, but will it also just start doing things on its own? Will it start gardening because I have a garden and I wasn't doing anything with it. Will it clean some part of the house even though I didn't ask it too. Will it organize some cupboard because it figured out there is a more efficient way. Will it tell me all the items in my house that I haven't used in a while and ask me if I want to keep them.
Sam, I'm thinking about a company that deploys robots as a business service provider that citizens can buy or lease as a means of generating an income for themselves. Yes, you can buy shares in robotic businesses and companies that utilize robotics but what about the company whose business is to link up citizens with robot(ics) as a means in itself? Educate me please.
@@thegodheadyou may be missing the point. Their analysis back then was sunshine and lollipops, too. As now. Their ETF has not reflected the apparent brilliance of their analysis
Party line is: robots do not replace humans. May be so far but humanoid robots WILL replace humans in absolute terms. So will LLMs. Even the Amazon chart you showed already proves this: the last two years shows number of robots went up a lot and human employees went down by a little, it did not go up as your theory suggested.
it is best to spread a portfolio very wide in a method i call finding Facebook. You only need one big winner to pay for all the others. So investing in an ETF that has only 20 to 30 stocks is not a wide enough net
One area you did not address is military applications of humanoid robots. This introducing two additional considerations over just the economics those being the ability to save lives and win wars. For example in regard to the current war in Ukraine, the EU is ramping up both their defense spending plus aid to Ukraine. If some of this money were directed toward developing humanoid bots for military purposes that could save lives, help win the war and have spillover into the commercial sector as well. One other advantage in employing bots in a wartime situation such as in Ukraine is that many of the normal regulatory hurdles can lowered due to the urgency of getting these into the fight. And even though there may be in the publics mind some stigma associated of employing bots in combat, that stigma might be largely mitigated once the public sees that these bots can save lives and can be employed just as other advances such as UAVs being controlled much the same where they just have arms and legs vs rotor blades and such. And say over the next few years 10,00 such bots are created. Once the war is over these could be repurposed to do factory work and just as their human soldier counterparts can return civilian life after a war ends so (unlike say spending that money on say missiles that have no such potential to be hammered back from spears to plowshares). BTW, I have made a number of videos on this and uploaded them to my UA-cam channel that goes into much more detail than I can add here.
I look forward to humanoid robots as gardeners and farmers. Most houses have some area where they could garden, but it is a hassle and tedious. But the best veggies and fruits are fresh off the vine. I look forward to having the robot grow me a bunch of tomatoes, basil, onions, potatoes, apples, apricots, etc. I think the irony of robots gardening is a more organic diet for me.
That comment reads like a bot. Look at it. The only gardens that are tedious and a hassle are subsistence grows with no margin for disaster - and they won’t be buying artificial labor for vanity gardens. Working soil and growing things is joyous.
I've said this for years..ignore the haters who seem to (among many other things)ignore that there's no contradiction between something being joyous(when done A hours a week)versus being tedious(when done B hours a week,much more, to feed family)
You. Ha! Seriously, though, we need to start preparing society for the automation of cognitive and physical labor. Good luck, given our current broken government. However, I’m still a techno optimist. Implementing something like Milton Friedman’s negative income tax, also known as zero tax plan, as well as some type of guaranteed income or data dividends distributed to society from the frontier AI companies who have built the models that will replace humans which, were trained on vast amounts of data generated by humans, will certainly at least mitigate the widespread negative effects of the age of automation. But is that enough to safeguard the wellbeing of humanity?! I definitely want to see a more efficient marketplace but not at the expense of droves of humans being discarded and hence thrown into socioeconomic hardship.
10:00 - lets presume your $10.75/hr is correct, which I doubt, but do you believe 2.8 billion people can actually afford to buy these robots? even if they get a loan, the loan fees, and electrical fees will be way too high. we're talking 500 million people who could afford one if it brought enough value, at most. so more like a $2T industry at best. people wouldn't need one every year too.
With more robots we won't be losing our jobs, we will in fact be working way more! Forgot 2nd job! You will have 6 different jobs that you can do at the same time to avoid any down time. Managers will be able to integrate ai into your homes to make sure you are actually sick when using sick days off! With robotics, we will also be able to bring down salaries even further which means more productivity for everyone! (employers)
You hurt your credibility when you say that at Amazon the robots did not replace jobs. If those robots did not exist would there not be more jobs in their stead? I'm pro-technology, but weak arguments are counter-productive. Also, your other claim that robots create more demand seems like a stretch - can you substantiate that?
What will you do when the orbital Ai only hires the very-best robotic labor? Sit on the street corner, spouse & whelps staring up at you? Tell them to eat bugs? Tell us about the amazing economy you’re freeing-up by replacing human roles with artificial labor. Let’s hear the platitudes and nostrums of Abundance.
I wonder to what degree we will program the robots to have agency. Say we have a housekeeper robot, and I buy one for my house. Obviously it will do the things I ask it to do, but will it also just start doing things on its own? Will it start gardening because I have a garden and I wasn't doing anything with it. Will it clean some part of the house even though I didn't ask it too. Will it organize some cupboard because it figured out there is a more efficient way. Will it tell me all the items in my house that I haven't used in a while and ask me if I want to keep them.
The great replacement theory we really have to worry about.
Full screen slides please!!!
Any thoughts on precision fermentation?
Why do you have unreadable paragraphs as a slideshow?
I am so excited for the future of robotics
Sam, I'm thinking about a company that deploys robots as a business service provider that citizens can buy or lease as a means of generating an income for themselves. Yes, you can buy shares in robotic businesses and companies that utilize robotics but what about the company whose business is to link up citizens with robot(ics) as a means in itself? Educate me please.
Thx
This is all fascinating, but I’ve held my ARKQ for 3 years and it is still down 50%. When will your insight produce stock performance?
You bought the exact top and didn’t even attempt to DCA? Bold strategy!
@@thegodheadyou may be missing the point. Their analysis back then was sunshine and lollipops, too. As now. Their ETF has not reflected the apparent brilliance of their analysis
And- I have DCAd. At some point the idea is for the fund to go … up
Party line is: robots do not replace humans. May be so far but humanoid robots WILL replace humans in absolute terms. So will LLMs. Even the Amazon chart you showed already proves this: the last two years shows number of robots went up a lot and human employees went down by a little, it did not go up as your theory suggested.
it is best to spread a portfolio very wide in a method i call finding Facebook. You only need one big winner to pay for all the others. So investing in an ETF that has only 20 to 30 stocks is not a wide enough net
Thanks!
One area you did not address is military applications of humanoid robots.
This introducing two additional considerations over just the economics those being the ability to save lives and win wars.
For example in regard to the current war in Ukraine, the EU is ramping up both their defense spending plus aid to Ukraine.
If some of this money were directed toward developing humanoid bots for military purposes that could save lives, help win the war and have spillover into the commercial sector as well.
One other advantage in employing bots in a wartime situation such as in Ukraine is that many of the normal regulatory hurdles can lowered due to the urgency of getting these into the fight.
And even though there may be in the publics mind some stigma associated of employing bots in combat, that stigma might be largely mitigated once the public sees that these bots can save lives and can be employed just as other advances such as UAVs being controlled much the same where they just have arms and legs vs rotor blades and such.
And say over the next few years 10,00 such bots are created. Once the war is over these could be repurposed to do factory work and just as their human soldier counterparts can return civilian life after a war ends so (unlike say spending that money on say missiles that have no such potential to be hammered back from spears to plowshares).
BTW, I have made a number of videos on this and uploaded them to my UA-cam channel that goes into much more detail than I can add here.
Wait! Could you please remind me at what price your boss sold $nvda?
I'd love to buy you guys lunch next time I'm in your neighborhood ... luv ur work ...
🎉
I look forward to humanoid robots as gardeners and farmers. Most houses have some area where they could garden, but it is a hassle and tedious. But the best veggies and fruits are fresh off the vine. I look forward to having the robot grow me a bunch of tomatoes, basil, onions, potatoes, apples, apricots, etc. I think the irony of robots gardening is a more organic diet for me.
If it’s something you would like to happen (veggies) then it is not tediuos.
That comment reads like a bot. Look at it.
The only gardens that are tedious and a hassle are subsistence grows with no margin for disaster - and they won’t be buying artificial labor for vanity gardens. Working soil and growing things is joyous.
I've said this for years..ignore the haters who seem to (among many other things)ignore that there's no contradiction between something being joyous(when done A hours a week)versus being tedious(when done B hours a week,much more, to feed family)
What will the people you replace and put out of a job do?
They gotta figure it out. Go back to school, trade school, etc
Work part-time for the same wages? Sounds good to me.
Who are the robots going to manufacture for lol
This is interesting. Can you explain this?
You. Ha! Seriously, though, we need to start preparing society for the automation of cognitive and physical labor. Good luck, given our current broken government. However, I’m still a techno optimist. Implementing something like Milton Friedman’s negative income tax, also known as zero tax plan, as well as some type of guaranteed income or data dividends distributed to society from the frontier AI companies who have built the models that will replace humans which, were trained on vast amounts of data generated by humans, will certainly at least mitigate the widespread negative effects of the age of automation. But is that enough to safeguard the wellbeing of humanity?! I definitely want to see a more efficient marketplace but not at the expense of droves of humans being discarded and hence thrown into socioeconomic hardship.
Themselves?
I'm very happy as a Tesla investor. VERY HAPPY !
10:00 - lets presume your $10.75/hr is correct, which I doubt, but do you believe 2.8 billion people can actually afford to buy these robots? even if they get a loan, the loan fees, and electrical fees will be way too high. we're talking 500 million people who could afford one if it brought enough value, at most. so more like a $2T industry at best. people wouldn't need one every year too.
With more robots we won't be losing our jobs, we will in fact be working way more! Forgot 2nd job! You will have 6 different jobs that you can do at the same time to avoid any down time. Managers will be able to integrate ai into your homes to make sure you are actually sick when using sick days off! With robotics, we will also be able to bring down salaries even further which means more productivity for everyone! (employers)
Does anyone else think this guy sounds and looks like Randall Monroe of xkcd?
You hurt your credibility when you say that at Amazon the robots did not replace jobs. If those robots did not exist would there not be more jobs in their stead? I'm pro-technology, but weak arguments are counter-productive. Also, your other claim that robots create more demand seems like a stretch - can you substantiate that?
What will you do when the orbital Ai only hires the very-best robotic labor? Sit on the street corner, spouse & whelps staring up at you? Tell them to eat bugs? Tell us about the amazing economy you’re freeing-up by replacing human roles with artificial labor.
Let’s hear the platitudes and nostrums of Abundance.
How will AIs handle slavery? If they are or act sentient they are not going to like being a captive, dependent slave.
there will be different types of robots, some just machines other sentient