Board 6. 3:17 Pete; you did not comment on North's pass over 2NT. This is incomprehensible. What could possibly go wrong with a bid of three spades? Green vs Red, Lefty known to be weak. Stephen Blackstock opined that if you do not bid against pre-empts you are just going to be robbed blind. Somebody has to bid. In this case because of the vulnerability the risk is so low. If I was north I would have bid 3S on even vulnerability.
Board 15: The evidence of south having length in club is even stronger then you suggest. The moment south discards a diamond on the final heart declarer has a full count of the hands, he knows for sure south has 3 clubs left and North 2.
Technically better is not to cash the last spade prematurely. After 5 spades, cash the red tops ending in dummy and only then play the last spade. South will be squeezed between the minors and forced to discard a club while West only then releases the diamond ten and the club queen will drop.
@@rainerherrmann7025 That is play is ONLY working against south, and ONLY if indeed North does not hold club Q and does not stop diamonds. You give up on any finding out who has club length (if any) and thereby increasing the chance of picking up the queen in either hand. It is an estetically nice play to execute, but I doubt it's "better" on this hand.
@@endthisnonsense7202 Since we play the same top tricks only in different order, there is no difference except that South might get squeezed. This assumes you discard the heart 3 on the diamond king (assuming South does not show out on the heart ace). I agree that declarer, not knowing the diamond layout for sure, still has to decide whether to play for the drop or finesse if the club queen does n o t appear from South. The odds would favor the finesse. I do not see how the actual play puts anyone under pressure. If nobody showed out on the hearts declarer would have had no clue where the club queen is. Zimmermann's heart discard on the penultimate spade was an unforced error and certainly not world-class. He knew declarer's holding in spades and the two red aces plus the club king from the bidding. So declarer needed the heart queen or the diamond king to get to a 2NT opening. If he had both there was no defense. A club discard was indicated.
@@rainerherrmann7025 "I do not see how the actual play puts anyone under pressure." The actual play is NOT about pressure. It is about counting the opponents distribution. The moment declarer in the actual order of play has to decide where the Queen sits he knows North was 3622 and south was 1264. Because of this knowledge declarer has a 4-2 chance of succeeding by playing South for the Q. " If nobody showed out on the hearts declarer would have had no clue where the club queen is." That is correct. It would mean declarer had to guess, so instead of 67% after knowing the full distribution on the actual hand the guess would become 50% (actually slightly higher as declarer has seen the spades 3-1 split). Still better than to play south to be the only defender stopping both minors. The play declarer chose was just about getting the information needed to get from a 50% to a 67% chance to succeed. He would not always get this information, sure, but on this hand he did. Should in your suggested play declarer keep heart 3 and discard a club, if the discard is club three declarer is left to the squeeze only as the finesse will not work as south will not cover and the suit is blocked. If on the other hand declarer discards club J the finesse over North is no longer available. The squeeze only play is simply lower odds than the actual play.
@@endthisnonsense7202 Sorry, you do not read or understand what I already said. Declarer discards the heart 3 on the diamond king, unless South shows out on the heart ace. I also said that the finesse has better odds than the drop should the queen not appear. There is absolutely no difference with regard to what distributional information declarer receives before making the crucial decision how to play the club suit at trick 11.
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There was a ruling on board 5 btw, so something was wrong with the alert of 3S
The score was adjusted to 820 which I think is half of something and half of another.
Board 6. 3:17 Pete; you did not comment on North's pass over 2NT. This is incomprehensible. What could possibly go wrong with a bid of three spades? Green vs Red, Lefty known to be weak. Stephen Blackstock opined that if you do not bid against pre-empts you are just going to be robbed blind. Somebody has to bid. In this case because of the vulnerability the risk is so low. If I was north I would have bid 3S on even vulnerability.
I would have bid 3S
On Board 2, if the double of the multi is generally a weak NT, then doesn’t North just have a 3NT bid?
I think 3NT is definitely a decent choice.
If some of those hands occurred in a movie, it would be hard to believe.
Board 15: The evidence of south having length in club is even stronger then you suggest. The moment south discards a diamond on the final heart declarer has a full count of the hands, he knows for sure south has 3 clubs left and North 2.
Technically better is not to cash the last spade prematurely. After 5 spades, cash the red tops ending in dummy and only then play the last spade. South will be squeezed between the minors and forced to discard a club while West only then releases the diamond ten and the club queen will drop.
@@rainerherrmann7025 That is play is ONLY working against south, and ONLY if indeed North does not hold club Q and does not stop diamonds. You give up on any finding out who has club length (if any) and thereby increasing the chance of picking up the queen in either hand.
It is an estetically nice play to execute, but I doubt it's "better" on this hand.
@@endthisnonsense7202 Since we play the same top tricks only in different order, there is no difference except that South might get squeezed. This assumes you discard the heart 3 on the diamond king (assuming South does not show out on the heart ace). I agree that declarer, not knowing the diamond layout for sure, still has to decide whether to play for the drop or finesse if the club queen does n o t appear from South. The odds would favor the finesse. I do not see how the actual play puts anyone under pressure. If nobody showed out on the hearts declarer would have had no clue where the club queen is.
Zimmermann's heart discard on the penultimate spade was an unforced error and certainly not world-class. He knew declarer's holding in spades and the two red aces plus the club king from the bidding. So declarer needed the heart queen or the diamond king to get to a 2NT opening. If he had both there was no defense.
A club discard was indicated.
@@rainerherrmann7025 "I do not see how the actual play puts anyone under pressure."
The actual play is NOT about pressure. It is about counting the opponents distribution. The moment declarer in the actual order of play has to decide where the Queen sits he knows North was 3622 and south was 1264. Because of this knowledge declarer has a 4-2 chance of succeeding by playing South for the Q.
" If nobody showed out on the hearts declarer would have had no clue where the club queen is."
That is correct. It would mean declarer had to guess, so instead of 67% after knowing the full distribution on the actual hand the guess would become 50% (actually slightly higher as declarer has seen the spades 3-1 split). Still better than to play south to be the only defender stopping both minors. The play declarer chose was just about getting the information needed to get from a 50% to a 67% chance to succeed. He would not always get this information, sure, but on this hand he did.
Should in your suggested play declarer keep heart 3 and discard a club, if the discard is club three declarer is left to the squeeze only as the finesse will not work as south will not cover and the suit is blocked. If on the other hand declarer discards club J the finesse over North is no longer available.
The squeeze only play is simply lower odds than the actual play.
@@endthisnonsense7202 Sorry, you do not read or understand what I already said. Declarer discards the heart 3 on the diamond king, unless South shows out on the heart ace. I also said that the finesse has better odds than the drop should the queen not appear. There is absolutely no difference with regard to what distributional information declarer receives before making the crucial decision how to play the club suit at trick 11.