Why the ‘Great Recession’ never came | DW Business
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- Опубліковано 6 чер 2024
- It's been a tumultuous few years for the global economy. Between the shock of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, analysts had been telling us to brace for a "Great Recession." But this hasn't come to pass - and the United States in particular has been doing far better than expected - outperforming all other major economies last year despite a slew of interest rate hikes. DW Business speaks to Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner at Beacon Economics about why this has happened and whether heavy stimulus spending could come back to bite.
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#recession #economy #ukraine
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
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I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Amber Dawn Brummit ” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
I like this lady, always smiling whether the news is good or bad.😂😂😂
Borrowing $1 Trillion every 100 days is not thriving. Pathetic!
That's the job of a pawn... Americans and ppl everywhere are struggling, but at long as the top tells you that they are hoarding enough to now become billionaires, the false hope and lies somehow keeps that smile on faces of those who hope instead of facing reality with solutions.
😂😂
@@bubuneowoo6161 what do you think was gonna pay for the 400 Billion Inflation Reduction Act? The 1.2T infrastructure Bill? The 200 Billion CHIPS and Science Act? The student loan cancelation program? Indeed, there's been alot of spending lately lol. That still doesn't negate the 3% growth last year. The highest in a decade or two lol.
Whether she lies or not.
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. What are your thoughts on this? I'm contemplating investing more than $300k. While this can generate short-term excitement, their long-term impacts can be unpredictable.
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I used to depend on UA-cam videos but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Your advisor seems competent. Could you share how I can reach out to them? I've recently sold some property and am interested in investing in stocks, and I'm seeking guidance.
I work with *Jennifer Leigh Hickman* , a licensed advisor. Simply search the name to find the necessary details to schedule an appointment.
I'm pleased with the advisor's prompt and knowledgeable assistance. Their professionalism instills confidence. Looking forward to further discussions.
They’re lying about inflation. Some services have doubled in price. The cost of basic materials have doubled. You can’t base inflation off a few staple items
I love how he has a child's drawing of Voldemort on his wall 😃
thats his portrait 😂
He leaves out the most important part when discussing wealth inequality, because his argument would collapse if he didn't. The price of key assets/purchases (houses, cars) have increased proportionally far more than wages. This, and with higher interest rates, means the most expensive, important purchases for working (and especially, young) people are further out of reach.
Just because your $/hr is a higher number than it was in 2019 doesn't mean you are receiving more value for your work.
The top .1 saw their wealth increase about as much as the COVID relief packages. I cannot take his statements seriously. The top .1% don't have earnings, they have morbidly large networks of wealth. And the top 50% largely include people benefiting from interest income streams, not necessarily taken as income. Then add in the absolute leap in cost of living.
Yeah this man is full of 💩 and cherry picked facts.
Right, and both divergent trends have been like this for decades. A minor slow down in that doesn't mean anything.
America is a-ok, if you're rich.
OR working/Have a real job.
Just. Like. Everywhere. Else.
@@bumpy783 Not really because they have social welfare.
Like everywhere else. But this has been motivated by gains in the poor, not the rich.
@@eatcarpet The US has social welfare programs. The only program they don't have is socialized health care; although they do have medicaid (health care) for those who are impoverished.
Dude really said “ consumer incomes have grown more than corporate incomes” where, when, wtf are you talking about
Wages have actually increased faster than inflation.
@@unconventionalideas5683Yeah, I have no idea how they calculate these things. I think they mean people making $15/hr are now making $20. But what about the rest of us?!? My income has drastically decreased since the pandemic, and that's only when I'm able to find a job, which is ridiculously difficult right now.
It has for some, my pay went up 7% last year.
If you haven't got a significant raise in the past 2 years, you're getting screwed
@@mordant221economics is discussed in generalities, in averages. Except where specific examples are discussed.
The economy is great for everyone except workers, the middle class, and the poor.
Apart from those groups, everything is going gangbusters.
"Don't confuse the narrative with the reality"
You got that right. I'm so tired of seeing all this "positive" financial news, and not feeling an iota of it. Unemployment is so low... Then why is it near impossible to get a job right now?!? (At least in tech). And I know A LOT of people feel the same way. I have NO CLUE what this guy is talking about "trillions in reserve.". Those "firehose payments" were so people could still afford food. Once again, having the rich detail financials is always a bad idea.
There is no true middle class anymore, at least not like there was when I was a kid. You now have the poor and the struggling and the truly wealthy.
Right! It's outrageous hope the robots and ai treat them better than us.
@@therealking6202And I think i got about 15 bucks of that firehose money. But everything else you said is right on.
Tax the very wealthy that always paid the least. CEOs shouldnt be making 1750 times more than workers. WTF
That could be considered misinformation According the IRS:The average income tax rate in 2020 was 13.6 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a 25.99 percent average rate, more than eight times higher than the 3.1 percent average rate paid by the bottom half of taxpayers.
The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 20.1 percent in 2019 to 22.2 percent in 2020 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 38.8 percent to 42.3 percent.
Internal Revenue Service (2021) data indicates that the wealthy in America are bearing the heaviest share of the income tax burden than in any time in recent memory. On the other hand, more than 53 million low- and middle-income taxpayers pay no income taxes after benefiting from record amounts of tax credits, and six out of 10 households receive more in direct government benefits than they pay in all federal taxes.
Why don't you work on improving your life instead of envying what other people have made? That just makes you bitter.
@@carlanderson7618The only problem is that the most wealth gains from the top 1 % are not from income.
@@markorojs670 That is not a problem if you realize that most wealth is not money in the bank income but is unrealized, nonexistent funny money. It s things like stocks and bonds , or hard assets like property that real value (except maybe as collateral) is only realized upon sale where it is then taxed, mostly capital gains taxes.
Wealth also fluctuates more in estimated value than real money income. If you are one of those who want to tax unrealized non-existent money aka wealth, are you going to allow people to deduct unrealized non-existent losses? So far this year Musk has lost $40 Billion in wealth, Zuckerberg was lost $100 billion in 2022.
Are you going to tax every ones wealth?
Over 50% of Americans own stock. There are trillions of dollars tied up in 401ks and other retirement funds. Do we tax their unrealized value? What about people's homes? Do we tax whatever monetary gains they would have made IF they were to sell it NOT WHEN they sell it?
The Rich pay all net taxes, cut spending first.
This man: The economy is fine.
Also This man: But people are not.
Pure comedy!
He actually said consumers are spending a lot, and inequality went down.
You may have misunderstood. By "people are not" he is referring to attitudes, not financial health. The people are doing very well right now.
This is the paradox we're living in. If people are fine the economy's bad. If the economy's good, the people are bad. This economical paradigm is busted, that's why. It's dead since 2010 but no one seems to realise.
The problem with looking at these aggregated figures ("how much cash do Americans hold?" is the extreme inequality in the country. What do the numbers look like if you ignore the top 3% of households?
inequality is not a big problem, see how many people want to get inside the US from Mexico...
I see people in the US who'd rather live on the streets in San Francisco than go to No. Dakota and make $80k/year
The cash in Americans pockets only lasted about 2 weeks, everything it's ridiculous expensive after the pandemic so I have to disagree with the host 😑
Remember that the US consists of 50 individual states and they run their own affairs. Some states are just doing economically better than other states.
Yes, that's true. Few look at it in that detail though.
Most states are doing fine. But indeed, some grew more than others which will/has always been true lol
There are also State regulated interstate agreements made between States with one or more economic goal. Requires federal consent.
11:52. Notice he says labor shortage problem. When inequality declines it’s often presented as a series of ‘problems’.
And look how he words it, "worker shortage" he avoids talking about how businesses dont want to increase wages. Its a wage problem, but the solution the government will reach for is to just import the 3rd world illegally and via H1B visas. Its the reason why people dont have kids anymore
@PilarfiaPlucked and @ArchesBro, thanks!
The average American household didn't get $50,000 or anywhere near that. So who's pockets were greased? We don't have excess cash.
A lot of that went to buy fixed income assets with the intent to lower interest rates. It’s called quantitative easing. Now we’re experiencing the inverse of that with them selling those assets
You dont know what your talking about go watch actual number before talking
Do you not remember the checks showered on you by both the Trump and Biden administrations? If you lost your job during the pandemic, did you notice that the unemployment payments actually gave you more money than you would’ve made had you retained your 2019 job? The US fiscal firehose unleashed during the pandemic was the most successful recession response in economic history, and the fact people are so grumpy about the aftermath means the next recession will be many, many times worse.
@@jcliu Most people were not unemployed, they did not collect $50,000 and unemployment insurance is a program that is paid for in advance by taxes on businesses. A lot of scammers collected PPP loan money that was supposed to be a loan, but they were all forgiven. Most people were hurt by the government shutdowns, higher inflation, less bonuses, etc.
"we never had a pandemic start a depression before, I don't know why we had so many forecasters with this point of view"
I'm not aware of any pandemic before causing governments to force mass shutdowns of businesses and essentially the economy. You can't just stop the economy and not expect a recession, it was very much an understandable prediction.
The only reason it didn't come to fruition was because of unprecedented stimulus, which has caused problems of its own down steam.
He says corporate profits "are not" at an all time high level.
A graphic showing corporate profits at an all time high immediately pops up.
Thank you DW.
He"s not lying, just using what Kellyanne Conway refers to as "alternate facts".
He said the rate of growth was low over the last year. Yes the profits are high but it was flat over the last year.
@@willardfaraday8022I’m looking at the graph literally right now, and no, line go up.
The only issue we face in the US is the GREAT economic divide.
The rich (top 1%) have WAY to much of the money and are refusing to pay what they should pay to help the average person in their employment and are just sitting on their fortunes.
top 1 percent starts at 600,000 dollars per year. how much should they being paying?
Problem is they convince the rest of us that their interests like minimizing tax payments through maximizing exceptions - which conveniently only they have the funds to pay specialist staff to get an appreciable return on - is the regular citizen’s interest too.
The amount of lobbying for a complex tax environment full of arcane exemptions is why the rich keep getting richer at our expense. There’s a reason why they’re so hostile to tax liabilities above everything other concern you’d hear from them.
@@echochamber1234 yeah their should be more tiers.
Going up to the millions.
That 600 k isn't quite accurate
The wealthiest help the average person by smart capital allocation..... investing in the economy and creating new companies... If they instead pay more of that money in tax.... the money is mostly wasted.... Of course there are some just sitting on their money.... they should be punished
True
The future is so bright that I have to wear shades.
Bit premature, huh?
The patient is very busy...
I'm not so much worried for the economy or even my job, both are doing well. While I love the bigger paychecks and 401k, I think the stock market is inflated.
Recession now pushed back another 6 months? How many times are you literally gonna push the goalposts? Normally when I'm consistently wrong, I look at the reasons and adjust my thesis. Not you people, you just barrel on with your nonsensical "theories" no matter the evidence piling up against it or how many times you are proven flat out wrong. It's both incredible and sad.
For those at the bottom of American economic assessment, who live paycheck to paycheck, have no savings, will never be able to afford their own home, and are falling further and further behind because their pensions and minimum wage paychecks have NOT kept pace with housing shortage inspired rents and a 15%
increase in the cost of food, this sunny description of the American consumer's financial status is just so much baloney. Averages -- the numbers everyone thinks are representative -- are incredibly misleading. The bottom 1/3 of Americans who are struggling can tell you all about it. The upper 2/3 are far too comfortable to care.
Then find another job you’re not earning a minimum wage paycheck…?
I think the problem there is continuing to work a job with a minimum wage paycheck lmao find another job
Wages have been rising for the poor tho
I am not an economist but did he just question Fed‘s goal to to 2% inflation cause the government debt not sustainable, and economy is too hot. However, does reducing interest rate will further boost consumption and drive the economy even hotter?
He also said he's fine with 3% inflation which might be fine for him but it's not okay for poor people.
Wall Street is fine what about Main Street ?
PERFECTLY FINE LIKE MANY OTHERS don t start your anti american anti biden bias it s not going to work
Did you watch the video? He specifically mentioned “Main Street” as the consumer having significantly more cash now and higher incomes. more than overall inflation. And the wage gains in % terms are higher at the lower income levels. People who used to make $8/hr and now making $15/hour. That’s an 87% increase when prices of goods and services have only risen 25% since the pandemic
Wall Street could collapse and 80% of Americans would be fine because only 20% are affected by stocks. People like us are unaffected because we can grow our own food, can live off the grid, and don't need government to manage our lives. Communities would survive if the global market were to crash.
@@ludda42 When the wage increases every enterprise has three options. 1) layoff, 2) Reduce the work hours. Videos of robots doing mundane jobs might be a foretelling of what will happen in the future. According to ING average work hours reduce to 34.1 hours which in their terms is recession territory which shows instead of layoffs, enterprises is reducing work hours. US BLS report shows that most added jobs are part time not full time. According to Philadelphia Fed US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 and all the new jobs in the past year have been part-time jobs. According to St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank total household wealth of $139.1 trillion 74% was owned by just 13.2 million families, or roughly 10% of the population. And if everything is OK why US government social hand out raise +$39BN MoM in 2024.
So US economy is transforming instead of recession. What it's transforming to, do not seems to be a good place for employees.
@@assassinsrequiem The MAJORITY of Americans would be affected by stocks. Most adults have a either a brokerage or retirement account which invests in things like index funds. Regardless, I think the number last time I checked is over 60% of Americans.
If the stock market goes down, it directly means LESS retirement savings for Americans.
We will survive, but don't think for a second that the health of the stock market doesn't directly affect Americans. It absolutely does, and this goes for anyone in the developed world.
But I do also see that your point is really trying to rationalize an environment of self-sustaining anarchist communes. Believe me when I say that if it ever gets to this point-we are BEYOND screwed. But also, it would never happen due to stock market collapse-we would have to get nuked for that scenario to play out. Society needs GOVERNMENT and STRUCTURE and ORDER to function.
In your scenario, you would survive... until a rival gang murdered you for food.
I got so sick of economic doom and gloom, as if the pandemic wasn't bad enough! It's like "they" wanted us to all be depressed. Fyi: One business in China lost 78Billion dollars JUST LAST YEAR! And there's many of these who are currently as bad in debt! Why no moaning on and on about the global impact of these facts? 😮
Ask yourself why a German news company broadcasts in English.
Propagranda for the US govt.
You're right in part but actually there are a lot of articles and online videos talking about how the decline of the Chinese economy could effect the entire world.
There are many “big shorts” in the market, they short on economy doing bad so every day they keep repeating the doom and gloom. The worst thing is they have avenue to do it and have people believe them.,
It was a good threat against either a possible future of The Purge or complete class war. Either way, they were willing to take the loss for a while to calm the masses.
Ask the common people in the rust belt .......
Or anywhere
@@marklihsu Right,as long as you work productivly youre getting effed - anywhere,because you are not perceived
as a human being but a serf...
Should have divested away from single-industry towns in the ’90s. No one's fault but theirs for not doing so.
The rust belt's troubles are not new, though.
Working class Americans who are struggling are delusional if they think that Trump and Republicans care about them or will do anything to help them.
Trump and Republicans aren't going to raise the minimum wage, give unions greater rights,
create universal health care,
create paid maternity leave,
increase worker safety,
ensure access to safe abortion,
tighten restrictions on guns,
ensure products are safe,
transfer more money from the rich to the poor or take action to reduce climate change that is going to cause the most harm to the poor and the working class.
Quite the opposite.
Democrats might be too close to the rich but Trump and Republicans are.locked in a tight embrace with the rich.
So, in summary: the U.S. economy is "performing well" due to both massive and unsustainable deficit-spending (which amounted to $2 trillion of new federal debt in 2023). Also, according to this analyst, things are getting better for the lower classes, despite how 63% of Americans now live paycheck-to-paycheck.
Eh, no. To summarize: the economy is performing well, but it has issues. It is "overheated", which means (among other things) people are spending too much and unemployment is too low (this is a thing... you don't want unemployment to be too low). This economist blames the US government for basically giving Americans too much money to spend, which has helped overheat the economy. He blames this for causing inflation, and of course he blames it for unsustainable levels of deficit spending.
According to PYMNTS, the percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck has been about the same since 2020... but there are issues with polls that use that question, because the responses have a lot to do with respondents' attitudes, rather than the actual material circumstances.
FED printer is going very well.
01 trillion in 4 months, no funds.
Fed has been in QT mode for over a year now.
what do you think was gonna pay for the 400 Billion Inflation Reduction Act? The 1.2T infrastructure Bill? The 200 Billion CHIPS and Science Act? The student loan cancelation program? Indeed, there's been alot of spending lately lol. That still doesn't negate the 3% growth last year. The highest in a decade or two lol.
what do you think was gonna pay for the 400 Billion Inflation Reduction Act? The 1.2T infrastructure Bill? The 200 Billion CHIPS and Science Act? The student loan cancelation program? Indeed, there's been alot of spending lately lol. That still doesn't negate the 3% growth last year. The highest in a decade or two lol.
And you think Republican budget cuts would of been the safer choice in this economy exiting a global pandemic? yeah that's exactly what the economy needs, a retraction.....these bills and acts passed lately has been to keep the economy rolling, what do you suggest instead?
Debt and spending it's a different monster altogether, call it whatever you want, but things could of been way way worse, if you have a solution for the draining healthcare system in place and the defense spending then go ahead shout it out, we're listening.
The financial system requires healthy business to lend to, if the middle class does not have the money to spend outside of necessities a lot of business will suffer and may end up firing people which then increases the unemployment rate. You really want to hear candidates like Trump and co. to talk about the economy and sound like a jackass don't you?
Sure you can argue about the nuances of the policy but the US is in a better state than most other economies in the world right now. Because there is such a high demand for dollars, the US can get away with printing more of them. Most European countries would kill to have the economic conditions that the US has.
Imagine being loved like americans love their capitalism
I saw many Europeans who just don't want to admit American economy performs way far better than European economy. What they always saying is, only wall street is doing well, but general public are suffering and describe America as such a distopia. That might be partially true, but things are even worse in Europe. Innovation is completely gone in this continent. Who is leading the future industry like AI, Electric car, semiconductors? Can you name a single competent European company in these fields?
The people complaining about the USA aren't Europeans. It is MAGA. They hate that the economy is doing better than most.
Zeiss, Siemens, SAP, Airbus, ABB, Aldi, Spotify and so on .... Dont be so focused on only High Tech and on USA vs Europe. Most companies are operating international
"US economy flying" how is it flying? The company I work for from 95 employees are down to 29 and we cant provide them forty hours!
Bro, remove the government spending and then show the figures.
7% increase in debt to achieve 3% GDP increase. Great economy in clown world.
Going out in the states, restaurants are full, so are shopping malls. I only know what I see.....
I can only give ONE opinion, am a RETIRED oil and gas professional that date was July 5th, 2017, healthy happy hunting and fishing. During 2020 the states of OKLAHOMA (where I live) Missouri and Arkansas deer hunters harvested the MOST deer ever recorded. Most people have always raised a garden, hunted and fished which means food on the table. Now during 2023 and into 2024 a lot of business in my town Norman, Oklahoma had to CLOSE. So this report (my opinion is) see what is happening in your USA town and state.
I'll save this video. It seems the song could be changed soon...
You obviously didn’t watch the entire thing
Wow, USA is going so well, no social problem within, no tension outside, a country as solid as a bridge!
@mys0076 freedom of speech
Freedom of speech my *ss, people died.
@@mys0076Lighten up, Francis!
@@mys0076 30’000 and counting are because of the gun USA sends to their genoziofriends . But my joke is not funny.
Watch the whole video...
oh that's because its only a recession for average folk... They only call it a recession when the rich are affected
DW needs to find better economists for the US. This guy doesn't seem to have a real touch on what is going on here with the average person.
DW always lie.
He for sure know better what he talking about than you
@@gabriellarose6126If you think so, then why don't you back it up with something other than a one line slam??
@@michaellynch1132 your country probably in recession so your salty
@@gabriellarose6126I guess nothing but one liners. oh well. And as far as salt, you started it.
As an American consumer every time the stock market is doing good I as American consumer make less money because Thay cut hours so I see the stock market as a terrible thing. Because the stock market only benefits the 1%
That's nonsense. Almost American has a retirement account of some sort, and they are mainly exposed to equity market. A rising stock market benefit them as well. Also, there's really no barrier to entry to invest your money in the market as soon as today
You have to give credit to DW to have found someone so delusional and insulated from reality that his opinion regarding the American economy could be so upbeat. What’s driving the anger of the American people is the economy, is the inequality and the despair of a dysfunctional political system.
Economy is great, yet, you will never be able to purchase a house.
I can never purchase a house and I work in the noble profesion started my sixth decade of my life. I am inventor too my algorithm is everywhere and no one has paid me one euro. I have my interests but seems that they think only for their profit, I dont exist for them.
Thornberg is a smart guy and he speaks so well! I was not aware income inequality has been dropping for a decade...
It's always interesting to hear a capitalist say that "America has a shortage of people". Maybe he should try driving through Atlanta and get back to us on that one.
I think they mean a shortage of able people.most of them folks are running food... Not much contribution to society
When companies offer high wages, they certainly aren't running out of people.
@@thewingedhussar4188 Ummmm. That's WHY companies have to offer higher wages - a shortage of qualified employees.
It's a shortage of qualified and skillful labor, we are short of nurses, builders, and manufacturers, that's why our immigration issue needs to be resolved to root out the unskilled and take in people who are ready to work.
student loan, credit card and auto loan debt is surging meanwhile and variable interest rates are spiking. Sure, those who have refinanced their mortgage at the right time are in a good position, but rising rents are squeezing countless consumers.
its coming in property market office buildings are empty
The only reason it hasn’t happened already is because big money/private equity owns more properties than ever, and they can, if they so chose, afford to hold onto the properties without earning rent payments in order to artificially prop of the value of said properties, and because they all own so many, this has worked.
If these commercial properties where owned by smaller firms that would rely more on the cash flow provided by tenants we would have seen a crash already I think. Not an expert of course.
7:50 So people keep in mind, in 4-5 years this may end and when it does. it may not have to do with whoever was or is in the administration then. It will have to do with with the Federal Reserve Bank artificially keeping interest rates they are currently. Isn't the Fed privatly owned by like the 8 biggest US banks? So banks may complain outwards, but aren't they themselves choosing to keep the interest rates the way they are?
What I don't understand is why people are mad at Biden. The economy isn't doing bad, it's that wages didn't always keep up, and that for example grocery store chains decided to increases prices even more than inflation just because they could. What do you want biden to do about this? And more importantly, what do you think trump would do better about it?
Great recession maybe never came but the insane amout of greed from our US capitalist financial system is making life very hard for ordinary Americans. We're moving closer to a dystopian, corporate run society.
It won't happen because it's unsustainable. Once it reaches a breaking point, things will have to change. It is destined to happen
I'm tired of 'experts' telling us how we're supposed to feel
Another area where the economic models are off is that most of them are based on the post Bretton Woods US Economy, where the US sacrificed its economy for security. With that ending, you have to go turn to the Post Reconstruction Models (post 1875) where the US Economy expanded & built out. This too was inflationary, pushed by limited raw material supplies & skilled labor vs industrial built out demand.
Sure, when you only look at numbers everything looks fine. Word on the street is people struggle though.
Because it's election year. Same happens in my country... All looks great right before the elections.
I live in US in California. This is all bull$h!t. People suffer greatly and most people work 60-80 hours a week and barely paying bills. Inflation since 2020 is every year at least 10% (official figures), but most likely close to 20-30% in reality. People cannot afford basic necessities and national debt is 30-40 Trillion USD. We are on a verge of collapse. This will be eventually resolved via major world conflict or Huge global recession or both.
SPEAK FOR YOURSELF i m doing just fine like many others you just don t have the monney ti live in california your bad choices are the reason why you r strugling now
Inflation since 2020 has not been at least 10% according to official figures. 2020: 1.2%, 2021 4.7%, 2022 8%, 2023 4.1%. And in 2024, we can expect it'll be something between 3 and 4 percent.
There is no impending catastrophe as you suggest, but it is true that our current policy isn't sustainable.
Sure isn't the California I live in. In the CA I live in the economy is doing incredibly well, the middle class is larger and more prosperous than ever, wages are maybe the highest in the world, and the standard of living is just incredibly high. People like to complain. And what the heck is wrong with working 60-80 hours a week? The more you work the more money you make.
@@mikeincaliforniaWhat is wrong with working 60-80 hours a week? Seriously? Humans just aren’t made for that. It’s unhealthy.
Solid interview
Household income as a proportion of real estate prices is actually decreasing.
Tell me the economy is good when we have fair wages and reasonable prices.
Who defines what's "fair" or "reasonable", you??
Here where I work people have no many to go to the doctor, just try to survive this difficult situation, the inflation is destroying everyone.
He's a monday morning quarterback thinking the Fed acted weird during a pandemic and high inflation. Your typical rich financial analyst's take.
weird how germany never got over their cognitive dissonance.
I can tell you without even watching the video why it never came: increased government spending. They've expanded the deficit to stimulate and prop up the economy, but gdp growth is only about half the additional spending, meaning without the IRA, the US economy would currently be shrinking substantially.
Right on.
No. Without Bretton Woods the US economy would currently be collapsing.
So, in other words, capitalism can't stand on its own two feet.
@@100perdido It's more realistically, like not even capitalism can survive a corrupt government. Neither can socialism nor communism survive a corrupt government.
Yes, but other developed economies engaged in greater amounts of COVID and post-COVID stimulus and saw relatively little growth. That's what the big question is.
I wish they had just gave every household 50k
Lol😊😊😊
how would they do that if they have 34 trillion in debt?
You mean 250k
@@god6384 The same way they got into 34 trillion in debt. Just print it up. It won't be paid back anyway so might as well party down.
If I recall correctly in 1972 Presidential candidate George McGovern promised to give every household (or every American)
$100.
But your suggestion is on a whole other level.
Our economy has been out of whack for decades now. We need to raise taxes on corporations and high-income earners to increase revenue to reduce the deficits. Interest rates should remain higher. In good times, taxes and interest rates should increase at responsible rates so the economy doesn’t overheat and surpluses can be put away, and in bad times, they decrease to spur growth and consumer spending. It’s been basically the opposite for a long time.
The Interviewee just exudes greed. Companies still have a higher income vs wages. He is an asset manager for sure, only cares about his clients and himself. An actual wolf of wall street
And who do you care for? Looking for handouts?
If you care about income inequality, go after professional athletes. Professional baseball player being paid $30 million a year. For playing a game.
@@shoot-n-scoot3539lol, what a pitiful argument you are making. The median wage adjusted for inflation has been declining in the US for the past 30 years and you tie yourself into a pretzel to find a worker who is making a lot of money to excuse the power imbalance between the working poor and the oligarchs. Just import more illegal immigrants and H1B visas and depress wages so they can print more money without affecting CPI. Its the biggest rigged game and why people have stopped having kids.
Question?
What about the oil reserves in the States?
War and wreaking havoc boosts American economy.
It could have been very tumultuous !
The game its rigged they are manipulating until when ?
Rubbery figures ALWAYS look good at the top. Talk the guys on the street.
This guy, cherry picking facts and not telling the entire story. I think the only truth he stated was how angry we the people are.
This guy lies a lot. The Pew Research Center, the Center on budget Policy Priorities, and the Census, all state that wealth inequality in the US have been growing for decades now, with only the Census stating that there was a minor fall in inequality during the period of great resignation after the pandemic.
What a coincidence that all of the "experts" imagined facts all lead to a government policy solution that makes him richer at the cost of the working class. Coincidence coincidences
He is here to say only good stuff. Consumers are not OK. Household debt is now at an unprecedented level and maxed out. National debt is going up $1trillon per 100 days, not $1.8 trillion per year as he claimed. And he didn't talk about the elephant in the room. BREEKS countries are outcompeting US companies.
Thanks to Germany.....
So why I've been out of job for over a year now???
try moving.....to where jobs are.
“Nobody wants to work anymore” as the unemployed submit hundreds of applications and consider moving (with made up money, I guess) to somewhere where maybe they can find a job they’ll hate, depend on, and, if our great economy holds, eventually become trapped in
The last point was interesting - “we just don’t have enough people” - because the number of inactive people is growing and growing. Managers and business owners treat their employees so badly that the reason for shortages in skilled labour is that no one wants to work for them.
It actually seems that more people are returning to the labor force because managers and business owners are starting to have to relearn how to treat people after COVID, or at least enough of them are.
I agree with everything he had to say except when he mentioned wealt inequality is decreasing. Sure the blue collar worker have seen a rise in pay, but I think that is minute compared to the upper class that owns assets. If you weren't lucky enough to have bought a house or car before 2021, you're cost of living sucks.
Analysts really just be winging it huh ?!
It never seems to help the average person, does it?
It does. It just doesn’t help the median person.
Before every recession, economy seemed going up for few months.
This is actually bad news, because this looks like Great Depression 2.0
Inflation is still nowhere near the 2% target, with material purchases like groceries really hurting the average consumer. Dismissing this target as too conservative is tone deaf. Mortgate rates are unaffordable in most markets. Blue collar jobs are doing better, but that's supply/demand in the labor market from neglecting the trades for years. White collar layoffs are still frequent, and corporate long term debt financing has yet to fully revolve. The "strength of the consumer" varies highly by generation and is coming mostly from Boomers. This doesn't feel like objective journalism. At least DW mentioned the national debt.
Record deficits... spending like a drunken sailor... a Trillion here, a Trillion there... interest payments are financed by new debt... good luck with that
This is some crazy gaslighting. Inflation is up over 10% for about everything necessary. We are in a recession
I wish people from both sides listened to this…
What does the US really produce and export? Weapons, energy (LNG) at exorbitant prices and most importantly inflation.
The LNG costs are just a response to a dip in supply due to Russian sanctions lol. One thing you left out, the US exports Intelectual Property far more than any other nation. This is a key factor of 21st century economic strength. The amount of patents filed by US firms and individuals (especially tech/software) but also medicine, dwarfs even China, a society that values engineering greatly, and who has way more engineers/engineers per capita but a fraction of the IP to lease to international companies. This is money that may come with very little overhead compared to producing physical goods, it is the product of r&d investments and strong sales/marketing/branding strategy paying dividends.
The US does export low end manufacturing stuff. They do export aircrafts, rockets, satellites, engines, weapons, gaz/oil, services, minerals (refined) among others. In fact, the US is the second largest exporter of goods in the world after China with $260B while China was at $300B.
@@rorytribbet6424 The high prices of LNG represent opportunistic behavior, which has disadvantaged European allies. This behavior escalated conflicts and diminished reliance on Russian gas, subsequently leading to the sale of American LNG to Europe at 'market' rates.
Eurogas President Didier Holleaux stated that the recent increase in US LNG imports to Europe has not completely filled the gap left by the gas previously sourced from Russia. He emphasized the necessity for additional LNG imports from the US to address this supply shortfall. He stressed the importance of the US supporting Europe, particularly during times of conflict, and urged against intentionally causing price volatility in Europe due to policy-driven LNG shortages. He highlighted the significance of additional volumes of US LNG for European energy security, especially in mitigating potential supply shortages arising from geopolitical instability in the future. This is in response to US LNG 'pause' in Jan2024.
Additionally, American jurisdiction's extensive reach restricts allies from fully benefiting from their own intellectual property, particularly when it involves American elements. Many countries in Asia have entered the IP arena relatively late but are rapidly catching up since joining the WTO. Consequently, previous Japan and now China are perceived as threats to Western hegemony. It's likely that numerous European companies are experiencing negative impacts due to American foreign and trade policies, as well as the influence of American officials on European political leaders.
The american influence can be seen as parasitic on the global stage, taking advantage of both allies and foes alike to prop up its economy.
Are you for real DW News? WTF?
Keep in mind DW is the equivalent of “Radio Free America.”
Our country is happy to see US growth rate but what about our growth rate???
india?
The US is not doing as well as you think. Inflation is making us look like we are growing, however if one was to account for Inflation you would see that our economy has shrank by 1% since 2020
@joshuabogert8893 the growth rate quoted by economists is real gdp growth rate. (adjusted for inflation). 🤦♂️
@@joshuabogert8893If you account for inflation, you'll see our economy has grown from about $20T to $23T between 2020 and 2023.
Please fact check next time before making up bogus statistics.
@saiyedakhtar3931 So riddle me this then. Because I must be misunderstanding the way these things are framed. Even in 2019 Dollars, the US GDP was 21.7 trillion dollars. When factored into how much the dollar inflated (21.4%) since 2019, the US economy in today's dollars should have sat at. 26.34 Trillion dollars. The US economy today is sitting at 25.44 trillion dollars. For 2019s lower GDP estimate it would have sat at 25.96 trillion in today's dollars. Am I reading this wrong? Because I went through old news articles and they even claimed that was the US's GDP that year from 2020.
You can’t buy a car or a house or groceries but other than that it’s great 🤣
Don't worry. It will come. It may be a couple of years, but it will probably beat the famous 30's a hundred years ago.
Too late for most 🤓 🖕
because the war in ukraine funds american arms industry duhhh
I guess 100 billion is driving the economy of trillions. Spending on defence is over 800 billion war or no war. The spending on Ukraine is miniscule
That cash the American people is seated on belongs to the 1% billionaires. What is this person talking about? Inflation it is a huge problem, the average American can barely save money and is living check by check.
I barely watched the video, went immediately to the comments, was not disappointed. This is what is referred to as “gaslighting”…. Regular people see this and count their blessings and assume their struggles are their own, “job creators” reassure themselves that actually the poors are doing better than ever.
I wish more people would see this
This will not age well
US saying something is under control, usually means it's chaotic.
"Lower inflation" my a- why are you lying? Food prices at the grocery store are outrageously high.
From the high inflation in 2022 maybe? The one there is now is in fact low.
The middle class they are addressing are FAANG employees... 250K salary and above.
@@Vatnik_tschistilka I see you've been drinking the Krugman Kool-Aid from the New York Slimes.
@@Floating.Swords I am German so I don't follow US media. I just know how the economy works. Unless there is gonna be a deflation the price hike from 2022 is just gonna be the new normal permanently.
Higher interest rates often lead to a double edged sword. It often means less demand but also less supply.
If someone is locked into a 3.5% mortgage rate they're less likely to list their home for sale when they would likely have to get roughly 6.5% on their new home.
That could mean the difference of hundreds of dollars a month.
So maybe one change that could be implemented is that for individuals locked into a 15 or 30 fixed rate can take their old mortgage with them when they but and sell a house in the same year.
Both scenarios work for me.
The wealth gap has NOT been decreasing in the U.S. for 10 years; it has been decreasing for 3.5 years. Trump era tax cuts for the rich broadened the wealth gap. Biden's covid response and policies, especially the expanded Child Tax Credit, Infrastructure support, and the Chips act, are what has lead to greater employment levels and wage increases.
He left out the fact that while wages have increased… the COST of living, specifically medicine and housing, is so much higher. The quality of life that those increased wages buy you is still lower because of overpriced essential assets.
The reality is inequality is a base case. I'm not sure there can be equality in capitalistic economy. After all everyone can't be rich. Everyone can't be a business owner..etc. What i do know for sure. If you want to close the wealth gap. It's a solo mission. Government or anybody else will not help with that. So if you're just the consumer. You will never close the wealth gap. Sadly the poor/middle class are generally just the consumers. You have to own assets to close the gap ( And i'm not talking about the home we live in). With no assets we will never be able to benefit from inflation or even corporate greed.
Child tax credit was beneficial when it was there but it has been removed and because of that child poverty is double again.
And no inequality did reduce in 2018 and 2019. There’s even an article saying inequality increases for the first time in 10 years in 2021.
🤪😜😂🤣🥸🥺😩
"Consumer incomes have grown more than corporate incomes"... On what planet? And how much are they paying you to say that???
Doesn't this basically demonstrate that MMT folks may actually be right?
I think it demonstrates US is the largest and safest economy to invest nowdays instead... Debt is one thing but it is relative to other numerous factors...
Growth is concentrated at the top. The bailouts are still going on......