Silicon Bites #66 - Putin and Patrushev Threaten Trump with Unsubtle Warnings - What do They Expect?

Edition No66 | 01-12-2024 - It is an illusion that Putin wants the war to end. In fact, he needs the war not to end, to perpetuate his regime. There are no limits to how many Russians he will sacrifice to save his own neck, how much blood he will spill to save the 10.5 pints in his own body. He is quite prepared to burn all of Russia’s economy and resources, for as long as that keep him in power.
So, the determination of President-elect Donald Trump to achieve a settlement of the war, any deal in fact, so he can boast to his supporters that he delivered on campaign promises. As we’ve suggested in a recent episode, it would seem Putin and Trump are on a collision course.
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1. He escalates the situation so that no parties can agreed to a settlement. This is risky, as it enters the territory of extreme brinksmanship. Whereas Biden’s policy has been to self-deter and cede Putin escalation dominance, there are strong indicators from the choice of General Kellogg that this will not be Trump’s approach. I’ve argued that he understands Putin’s gangster mindset, operating under Moscow rules, and that to win against such a strategy you need to show implacable strength against Russia, not weakness and concessions.
2. Putin escalates to grab more territory and have a stronger hand in future negotiations, which he may now see as unavoidable. No cost will be too high in material and human life, but Putin needs something that his propagandists can spin to the Z-patriots.
3. If the information Putin is getting from commanders on the ground as well as military leadership is still inaccurate, sugar-coated, manipulated, then he may be deluded enough to think he can continue to prosecute the war through 2025, and achieve his maximalist objectives; that is take all of Ukraine, or at least Kyiv and Odesa. If he thinks there is a chance for ‘full’ victory, then why would he capitulate now? Especially, as he may view that a pause in hostilities for a few years may benefit Kyiv as much as, or even more than it does Russia.
4. Finally, if his information is more realistic, and his understanding of his own political environment as accurate as it traditionally has been, then he may understand that the end the war will mark the beginning of the end for his regime and his life. He may see no way to a comprehensive or even partial victory in Ukraine but has no option but to continue. It’s possible Russia’s economic and political collapse would accelerate if the war stopped. Especially as other dominoes of Russia’s foreign policy are wobbling, in Syria, Ukraine and sub-Saharan Africa. Any end to the war may be seen as failure.
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NEWS SOURCES:
www.ukrinform....
www.express.co...
www.indiatoday...
www.independen...
www.hindustant...
www.bbc.co.uk/...
www.express.co...
kyivindependen...
www.newsweek.c...
www.themoscowt...
www.politico.e...
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Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen
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NGO “Herojam Slava”
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kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemysl
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