My approach to drafts (which have been usually quite successful) is to print out my personal list of tiers for each position. As the draft progresses, I cross off players that get taken. This way I can monitor how many are left at a given tier. So, if it's my turn and there are only a couple RBs left in a good tier, but still several WRs left in the current tier, I know to go RB while I still can. It's a simple, tried and true, approach that has worked well for me through many seasons. Come draft day it's important to have your plan condensed to something you can work with under pressure.
Lyncoln Delporte, agreed. Going RB heavy sounds good but if I’m picking late in the 1st round and everyone is going RB heavy I’m def gonna consider going WR heavy and avoid those land mines at RB.
@@seanjacobson3736 I look at consensus rankings (FantasyPros) and listen to channels like this. Read a little here and there. After a while I will have a feel for who I like and dislike. I will then create a 1-pager "cheat sheet" in the following way: My first tier is elite players. These are the highly sought after players. Generally the top 7 or so at each position. Although TE will only have 3-5. It's less about numbers per tier as it is about how intensely valuable they are. Then I have "High End." I list for each position all the players I feel are just a touch below elite, but still excellent options. Then I keep going down from there for maybe 2 or 3 more tiers. The last tier is a mix of guys who I think are likely underrated or could be surprise stars. Maybe I just like them because they have a solid role on their team. For instance, Marquis Brown would be one. In the better tiers I will list guys I might not really love but I can't deny their value should they fall to me (players like keenan allen). The key is to cross off guys as they go. This way, at a glance, you can see if options from a certain tier of position are almost gone. Then you know that you should grab one before they are all gone from that tier. It also helps make sure you don't forget players you like. Last tip... if you think you can score a great value late in the draft, you may focus more heavily on another position in the early rounds. For instance, if you really think Marquise Brown could be a solid WR with some upside, maybe focus on RB when you are on the fence (because in all likelihood, you can get your WR sleeper later)
Exactly same strategy since 1992. That was the way I started and the way I still do it. Also have been very successful, more trophies than anyone in our Yahoo leagues, more $ and the only one with diamond ranking. Started in 2001 by computer, before that we had to call each team or the commish with your starting lineup before kickoff and we all kept score by the newspaper stats. Question? Do you all evaluate how good or bad an offensive line, strength of schedule and (slightly) look at how good that defense is? Example; let's say you are targeting a rb to draft because of the strength of schedule first maybe you like the rb's in a certain division and their division is week defenses overall so they automatically play each other twice and the rest of season is pretty decent matchups and the team rb you draft had a decent offensive line and added a player or two that should be a good improvement this year BINGO that's my guy and if that defense happens to be the best in that division.... That's a big YAHTZEE on my BINGO. Last year I had Christian McCafferty on every team I had seems like he caught everyone by surprise. Also helped that I got either a #1 or the #2 draft spot in every league last year. I had Gurley, Kamara and Zeke along with an upper tier wr and Caff in the 3rd. Two championships and one 2nd. So what is anyone elses strategy? Or do most just listen to others like here and go off someone else's rankings? I am bi-curious...lol Good luck to all of you... don't matter how good you are, luck is still a big part of it.
Great video, but I'd caution Yahoo users to take it with a grain of salt- Yahoo standard roster size includes 3 WR to start, plus a flex. So there is still value in grabbing the WR studs when you can.
Very useful video. Thanks. However, in one of my leagues last season, I went heavy at RB to start and I lost so many of them to injuries and whatnot. I had McKinnon, Freeman, Hunt, and Collins! So, when I do target WRs earlier than RBs, it's because I think they are less risky. In fact, I think it may have been on this chanel where I learned that about a quarter to a third of RBs will not finish the season. The other thing is that each season there are a few sleeper RBs that emerge as huge point scorers to help win a season - often due to the fact that one of the other RBs went down. I think late round pickers should do the RB zero approach for that reason. Not only do you get safety at the WR spots... but then, because of the late draft spot, you also get a good waiver priority. So, when those RBs emerge on waivers, you have a great chance of getting one. But, yeah, if you have an early pick, go RB for sure.
@@rickmartinez7834 For sure. It was very bad luck. And I was taking the same approach you described - to give myself insurance at the position. But, even though that was very bad luck, it is true that a significantly larger percentage of RBs won't finish the season. So it is a riskier position for sure.
I agree 100%. Recently in mocks I've been drafting WR with my first 2 picks. When it comes back to me there is still a bunch of good rbs available. I go 4-5 rbs in a row from there
Long time listener...your first point about how there are many different strategies to draft due to point systems is spot on. This is why I wished Fantasy Football Analysts, such as yourself, would focus on 1 particular point system specifically. This would allow so much more attention to detail and make much more sense to the listener. Sometimes I’ll watch your videos, then realize you’re drafting for a PPR league, and immediately stop watching. At least put the point system you’re referring to in the title. End rant. Keep up the good work!
Very well-made video nick. I'm sure you have a ton of good content on the pipeline but maybe a cool idea to consider is analyzing some of your 2018 predictions focusing on mistakes you made. I got recommended some of your 2018 content and found it really interesting thinking about the takes with the advantage of hindsight. something to consider
through doing a billion & 1 mocks, I found the info in this video 2 b fundamentally true...in fact I've come up with a position by round draft order (keeping in mind that I'm in a 1-player keeper) that leads 2 best value at that particular spot imo & solid overall team structure...spoiler: I go TE in the 5th
Bruce Simmons yea I had Kelce last year and he had more points every game then my wrs plus you always need a good te every week and you can switch out your wr weekly
A good draft is important. But let's be clear, working Waivers is just as important. Always keep your mind a few weeks ahead. Predict the future if you will. If your WR3 has his bye in 3 weeks go ahead and look at the schedule and find some WRs with easy matchups in that week. Don't wait till the last minute. Other team owners may try to block you from that if you wait.
Yup, exactly what I was thinking. I use to try this with Gronk. My thinking if there's really only that good of a TE, then yes. Cameron Brate has always been my favorite sneaky TE. Winston loves him in the redzone.
Hey nick, I play in 2qb league where u get 1 pt every 5 passing yards and 1 pt every 2 receiving or rushing yards. TDs r 10 pts. In that case r wr and qb more valuable in early rds than TEs.
Fantastic video Nick, this is some high end content. I’m prepping for my hometown 12 team .5 point PPR Auction draft more than any other league. What strategy would you deploy in an Auction draft pertaining to this content?
Don't be afraid to spend up on the guys you like. You can get a QB for basically nothing, spend $1 on D/ST and K, and there will be great late round guys that go for $2-$3. You don't need to break the bank on a player, but don't be afraid to pay above market value. And don't draft a team of only mid round players. You need some studs to win
Just going to ignore injury risk in this video I see. The majority of running backs going in the second and third rounds have very extreme injury risks. That's why the WRs are going where they are. You need to capitalize on the first 3-5 rounds of a draft, otherwise you are throwing your season away on draft day. A top tier WR who is a low risk pick is a perfect follow up to a first round back, if you're lucky enough to get one. Otherwise don't be afraid to go double WR and then grab RBs. I have lots of money tied up in drafts and that is definitely a solid strategy this year if you get a back end spot.
Does this mean you should be taking RB's over Hopkins, Adams, Julio, OBJ? (after the big 4 RB's are gone) For instance, I have the #5 pick...and I was thinking Hopkins, but I also was thinking Connor. Connor is WAY down the list on rankings, so I just felt that wasn't smart....
What about using your first two pics on quarterbacks? I got Brady and brees so I had a good quartback but I also stole a quarterback I was to play against. I find danger in running backs because it is the spot with the most turn over eg injury. KC if you take Damien Williams do you have to take Ware as well because it’s running back by committee? I find everyone is drafting the running backs in the first 4 rounds and some are just hot and cold. Look at the Pats they have no solid rb because they change their strategy every week. If I am wrong please let me know
Literally how my wife won our fantasy league a few years back. All this planning is great, but in actuality most people following all this draft advice won't see the playoffs
My wife made a guest appearances in our league one year...that was her strategy and she won it all. Just goes to show, all this game plan flys in the wind once the season starts rolling. We are all going to pissed, when*fill in the blank* breaks his ankle in week 2. It happens every year. AB is still going to kill this year. So will Bell. GO EAGLES!
I did a Mock about 5 mins ago and this is how I started off my team - WR1 Michael Thomas, TE - Travis Kelce, WR2 - Amari Cooper, then Flex - Brandon Cooks. With my first 4 picks I landed Amazing value in my honest opinion. Sure I did not get a Stud RB, but I landed Lindsey, and J White, and L Murray. My QB was Matty Ice. I think if I can land that in a real draft, I don't mind having those kinds of RBs. What you think? Thoughts?? Thanks as always amazing Content!!
I think you are going to struggle unless you unearth a stud RB in FA. There's too much pressure on those first 4 picks to put up an avg of 15 points per player and relying on that from pass catchers...is hard. you will have a couple amazing weeks, you could also have a couple weeks where your team is destroyed. The variance would be way too high for my liking.
@@marcsousa4904 It depends where you pick in the draft. Everyone is going on and on about how important a rb is in the first couple rounds....however if you just play it safe you will not win your fantasy league either. If you just follow trends(everyone starts picking rb you pick rb or everyone picks a wr you grab one in fear of them all being gone) you will always be behind against your opponents teams.
I'm from Pittsburgh and that is tough, but I'd go Conner. If you watch Cook run he is not shifty, he goes down easily and he is often injured. Cook's biggest weapon is his speed, but Conner is fast with power and is somewhat elusive.....
Alley Oop ! I’ve been feeling the same way. With the run on RBs to start the draft, there’s a spot in the first round where your choice is between Hopkins/Adams or a second tier RB, most of whom have some significant risk factor. Those two are just too good to pass on in favor of a risky RB that I’m not much more comfortable with than I’d be with an RB in the Mack/Henry tier. That said, if my first round pick falls where I can’t pass on Hopkins/Adams, I’m absolutely going RB with my next two if not three picks.
Noah Homyak if you can’t get one of the top-tier RBs, I’m comfortable taking one of those two, although they’re pretty much the only two WRs I’m feeling in the first round. In my mocks, this tends to be most likely if you’re drafting in the 7-9 range. Before 7 you’re going to have a top-tier RB available, and after 9 Hopkins and Adams are probably gone and I’m taking two of the next tier RBs at the turn. Basically I’ve been trying to get three RBs in the first four rounds, and in mocks so far that means I end up taking a WR in the 4th with a top-6 pick, in the 1st with a 7-9 pick, and in the 3rd picking 8 or later. That’s just how my personal tiers tend to be falling. It seems like the only time I’m not taking an RB in the 2nd is if Kelce is available and the second tier RBs are all gone.
I ultimately agree with your conclusions. But the argument is that the bust rate is higher amoung early rbs, as is the turnover rate in top 12 finishes. For example, I didn't draft an rb until round 3 in 2017 and ended up with Gurley, Hunt and Kamara. Granted. I got very lucky that year. Last year I drafted DJ and Fournette with my first 2 picks and they sucked, although I made up for it with Chubb and Mack later. Had I known that Chubb and Mack were going to end up being my starters, I would have been WAY better off taking AB and D.Adams with my first 2 picks. Same goes for my buddies who took D.Cook, D.Freeman and L.Bell. Very rarely do you see top WRs bust like that, and the turnover rate is lower. If you draft a top 10 WR you are more than likely going to get a top 10 finish with that guy. If you draft DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson as your starters, I'm sorry, but they are not going to finish as top wrs, as much as you are trying to convince yourself that they will. *of course this does not apply to picks 1:01-1:04, take the backs...but it applies if you are picking in the bottom half of round 1 and all the elite Wrs are on the board.
@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA Maybe top 4 or 5 running backs that's true with. Here is the main problem...I have a draft tomorrow and I pick 7th overall. It's a 2qb ppr league so I would assume someone is definitely going to pick mahomes before I come up(I wouldnt pick him in first round anyway). That leaves 5 other picks before I go. The smart move would be the picks are the 4 top runningbacks and Hopkins. I would be an idiot not to pick d Adam's at this point according to rankings. The ranked 5th and 6th rbs dont make me as comfortable as a top 3 guy who could easily be number 1 this year(especially with a roster that holds 3 wr). That also could cause a ripple affect to have the 10 picks between my 1st pick and second go ham on wrs and I can still grab a great rb in the 2nd or kelce. Or they could ignore me and keeping plugging at rb and I can grab a 2nd top 10 or top 15 wide receiver and just g ok for rb when everyone turns attention on qb or wr theirselves. It's all about starting a trend not about following one.
I'm curious if that graph was the finish of the RBs v WRs, or the finish of the drafted RBs v WRs. Iow, ho predictible are the upper RBs compared to the upper WRs? If the upper RBs are more predictible (in addition to scoring at a higher rate), then it would make sense that you should pound RBs early and often and kinda go zero-WR. But if the upper RBs aren't as predictible / if upper WRs bust less often, then it might still be worth it to draft WRs early. Thanks for the info!
If passing touchdowns are 6 points where do you recommend to take top qbs and other qbs? Some people take qb round 1 in this league idk if that’s the right strategy
Alexander Chao just draft Philip rivers in the 300th round ....in all seriousness you can grab rivers in like 12rd usually and he steady gets 20+ points
I did a few mocks to test some of your ideas and I have to say your advice is spot on. I like the looks of my teams, there is great QB value in the late rounds, and most of your sleepers are flying under the radar at this point. Though I can't predict injuries and point projections will vary somewhat, I feel much more confident going into the season.
Chubbs definitely gonna produce first 8 weeks. I wouldn’t go hill/Beckham first 2 picks though. No guarantee Chubb is still there and you’re passing up a lot of solid rbs
It’s all about value. If people are reaching on RB and you have a late first round pick then RB Zero is viable. I said at the beginning that there is no one best strategy. You need to understand all of them and be able to adapt to how your league drafts. Not every draft opens itself up for RB Zero
what he said...look @ ADP & tiers, do a ton of mocks, think about how u want ur team structured & who u like/don't like...u can come up with ur own strategy/system
I didn't realize what x and y were on the graph until the end of the video. no idea why based on your graph why Kelce was good to take in late 1st round
applying this thought process to my own roster format: [2RB, 3WR, 0-flex] Given now the comp of a start-worthy/highly drafted WR with a bench WR is different, how is value effected when you’re on the clock? In this case (using your analysis), could one mark the case that drafting a WR in the mid 1st round ‘could’ be considered a good idea? A response from anybody would be appreciated! Thanks.
Under that format I just wouldn't go as RB heavy early. You can only start 2, so I wouldn't take 3 in the first 4 rounds. Could start out the first three with some combo of 2 RB and a WR
I really want to get your guys draft kit. With my mocks I’m always having difficultly in the 4th round. Also do you guys keep your draft kit up to date throughout the season for like maybe waiver wire or something?
So would you rather draft Gordon/Conner/Mixon than Adams/Hopkins on pick 7? I‘m in a 14 teams league and dont know what to do if Ezekiel, Kamara CMC DJ and Saquon are gone
In a 14 team league I'd lock up an RB with my 7th pick. RBs will be gone very quickly with those extra teams in your league. You can safely assume that the top 5 RBs will be gone by your turn.
@@lsommer77ls Well, if you don't like a player, I guess don't draft them. So, I suppose it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if you took a WR like Adams. I'd just be sure to not miss out on the next batch of RBs after the first round. You can get away with going WR in round 1. But don't wait much longer than that to get your RBs in a 14 team league. If I were in your position I'd go for Gordon (in spite of his contract concerns).
Being that late in a league that size, I likely go for the best RB available. Especially with it being standard. In standard leagues, pretty much lock up as many good RBs as you can in the early rounds.
@Nick Zylak: What happened with SOTD from Thursday, which was RB with highest YPC from shotgun? The Friday video was out of order and didn't list the answer.
I want to purchase the draft guide and all that jazz... But I think my league will be 6 pts per TD pass for Quarterbacks and I believe -2 pts per interception I don’t want to make a purchase for no reason. Am I overthinking this?
Would it be stupid to trade my 2nd and 3rd round picks for the #2 over all pick? I have the number 1 pick. Or should I trade my 1st pick for a 2nd and 3rd round pick?
@@blu_thunder1580 ya that's a good point..there seems to be so many WRs this year..Who you going #1? I think im going Kamara..I was on Barkely but the giants blow and all teams have to do is focus on him
@@blu_thunder1580 why are you hesitant on Kamara? I have no interest with CMC..i just don't see hum as a #1 pick but i could be wrong..As fir Zeke no friggin way will i take him. This holdout could go on for a while
well said, mate! take the advice of these fantasy "experts" but have some individuality | creativity & come up w ur own baseline for a strategy to ur draft🏈🐨🇳🇿🏈🐨🇳🇿
In standard leagues if you don't draft 3 rbs in ur first 4 rounds u are fucked especially since wrs are deep qbs are deep and te are literally 2 good ones and the rest are about the same
My approach to drafts (which have been usually quite successful) is to print out my personal list of tiers for each position.
As the draft progresses, I cross off players that get taken. This way I can monitor how many are left at a given tier. So, if it's my turn and there are only a couple RBs left in a good tier, but still several WRs left in the current tier, I know to go RB while I still can.
It's a simple, tried and true, approach that has worked well for me through many seasons.
Come draft day it's important to have your plan condensed to something you can work with under pressure.
Lyncoln Delporte, agreed. Going RB heavy sounds good but if I’m picking late in the 1st round and everyone is going RB heavy I’m def gonna consider going WR heavy and avoid those land mines at RB.
Lyncoln Delporte How do you determine tiers? How many tiers do you build?
@@seanjacobson3736
I look at consensus rankings (FantasyPros) and listen to channels like this. Read a little here and there. After a while I will have a feel for who I like and dislike.
I will then create a 1-pager "cheat sheet" in the following way:
My first tier is elite players. These are the highly sought after players. Generally the top 7 or so at each position. Although TE will only have 3-5. It's less about numbers per tier as it is about how intensely valuable they are.
Then I have "High End." I list for each position all the players I feel are just a touch below elite, but still excellent options.
Then I keep going down from there for maybe 2 or 3 more tiers.
The last tier is a mix of guys who I think are likely underrated or could be surprise stars.
Maybe I just like them because they have a solid role on their team. For instance, Marquis Brown would be one.
In the better tiers I will list guys I might not really love but I can't deny their value should they fall to me (players like keenan allen).
The key is to cross off guys as they go. This way, at a glance, you can see if options from a certain tier of position are almost gone. Then you know that you should grab one before they are all gone from that tier.
It also helps make sure you don't forget players you like.
Last tip... if you think you can score a great value late in the draft, you may focus more heavily on another position in the early rounds.
For instance, if you really think Marquise Brown could be a solid WR with some upside, maybe focus on RB when you are on the fence (because in all likelihood, you can get your WR sleeper later)
@@seanjacobson3736 you can find them spreadsheets online for free, try reddit
Exactly same strategy since 1992.
That was the way I started and the way I still do it. Also have been very successful, more trophies than anyone in our Yahoo leagues, more $ and the only one with diamond ranking. Started in 2001 by computer, before that we had to call each team or the commish with your starting lineup before kickoff and we all kept score by the newspaper stats.
Question? Do you all evaluate how good or bad an offensive line, strength of schedule and (slightly) look at how good that defense is?
Example; let's say you are targeting a rb to draft because of the strength of schedule first maybe you like the rb's in a certain division and their division is week defenses overall so they automatically play each other twice and the rest of season is pretty decent matchups and the team rb you draft had a decent offensive line and added a player or two that should be a good improvement this year BINGO that's my guy and if that defense happens to be the best in that division.... That's a big YAHTZEE on my BINGO. Last year I had Christian McCafferty on every team I had seems like he caught everyone by surprise. Also helped that I got either a #1 or the #2 draft spot in every league last year.
I had Gurley, Kamara and Zeke along with an upper tier wr and Caff in the 3rd. Two championships and one 2nd.
So what is anyone elses strategy?
Or do most just listen to others like here and go off someone else's rankings?
I am bi-curious...lol
Good luck to all of you... don't matter how good you are, luck is still a big part of it.
Great video, but I'd caution Yahoo users to take it with a grain of salt- Yahoo standard roster size includes 3 WR to start, plus a flex. So there is still value in grabbing the WR studs when you can.
Very useful video. Thanks.
However, in one of my leagues last season, I went heavy at RB to start and I lost so many of them to injuries and whatnot.
I had McKinnon, Freeman, Hunt, and Collins!
So, when I do target WRs earlier than RBs, it's because I think they are less risky.
In fact, I think it may have been on this chanel where I learned that about a quarter to a third of RBs will not finish the season.
The other thing is that each season there are a few sleeper RBs that emerge as huge point scorers to help win a season - often due to the fact that one of the other RBs went down.
I think late round pickers should do the RB zero approach for that reason. Not only do you get safety at the WR spots... but then, because of the late draft spot, you also get a good waiver priority. So, when those RBs emerge on waivers, you have a great chance of getting one.
But, yeah, if you have an early pick, go RB for sure.
I look at drafting RB's early helps absorb a loss or two to injury. What you went thru is just bad luck.
@@rickmartinez7834
For sure. It was very bad luck. And I was taking the same approach you described - to give myself insurance at the position.
But, even though that was very bad luck, it is true that a significantly larger percentage of RBs won't finish the season. So it is a riskier position for sure.
I agree 100%. Recently in mocks I've been drafting WR with my first 2 picks. When it comes back to me there is still a bunch of good rbs available. I go 4-5 rbs in a row from there
Everything different no straggety you welcome have a good year guys
Long time listener...your first point about how there are many different strategies to draft due to point systems is spot on. This is why I wished Fantasy Football Analysts, such as yourself, would focus on 1 particular point system specifically. This would allow so much more attention to detail and make much more sense to the listener. Sometimes I’ll watch your videos, then realize you’re drafting for a PPR league, and immediately stop watching. At least put the point system you’re referring to in the title.
End rant. Keep up the good work!
Bigga if you play standard please stop lol
Nearly 100% of our content is for half PPR
Good job as always Nick the work you’ve put in is greatly appreciate 👍🏾
Those graphs have no labels so we dont know what they mean
Very well-made video nick. I'm sure you have a ton of good content on the pipeline but maybe a cool idea to consider is analyzing some of your 2018 predictions focusing on mistakes you made. I got recommended some of your 2018 content and found it really interesting thinking about the takes with the advantage of hindsight. something to consider
I made 2 vids for that to start the summer
through doing a billion & 1 mocks, I found the info in this video 2 b fundamentally true...in fact I've come up with a position by round draft order (keeping in mind that I'm in a 1-player keeper) that leads 2 best value at that particular spot imo & solid overall team structure...spoiler: I go TE in the 5th
Rob Johnson, OJ Howard?
@@Meemeeseecoo or Henry...but I get OJ 9 out of 10 times
This was sum useful insight, depending on who's available, a top tier TE now holds more weight than a top tier WR.
Bruce Simmons yea I had Kelce last year and he had more points every game then my wrs plus you always need a good te every week and you can switch out your wr weekly
My top three picks in a 12 man league at pick 11
1. Hopkins
2.Hill
3.Ertz
Krame Game yea I heard you got ray rice and a foster as your backs tho lol just teasing that’s a good start
Frenchy8329 haha no I got Derrick Henry & Kenyan Drake. Trying to wheel and deal a little to get an RB2
How does Hopkins fall to the 11th pick? Are you in a non ppr?
NPC#789132 .5 PPR MY TEAM NOW
Barkley
Chubb
Hill
Boyd
Wilson
Krame Game Barkley fell to the 11th pick?
Great way to start my morning! 👌🏾
Great approach! Good job! :D
QB graph vs 1st bench QB graph would be awesome. Thanks!
A good draft is important. But let's be clear, working Waivers is just as important. Always keep your mind a few weeks ahead. Predict the future if you will. If your WR3 has his bye in 3 weeks go ahead and look at the schedule and find some WRs with easy matchups in that week. Don't wait till the last minute. Other team owners may try to block you from that if you wait.
Nick, but then your zero RB teams dominate evry year. Haha. Fantasy football is so much fun
Good point.
Yup, exactly what I was thinking. I use to try this with Gronk. My thinking if there's really only that good of a TE, then yes. Cameron Brate has always been my favorite sneaky TE. Winston loves him in the redzone.
@@BigstickNick
Mine used to be Rudolph the Redzone Reindeer, but Cousins ruined everything for me.
Hey nick, I play in 2qb league where u get 1 pt every 5 passing yards and 1 pt every 2 receiving or rushing yards. TDs r 10 pts. In that case r wr and qb more valuable in early rds than TEs.
Fantastic video Nick, this is some high end content. I’m prepping for my hometown 12 team .5 point PPR Auction draft more than any other league. What strategy would you deploy in an Auction draft pertaining to this content?
Don't be afraid to spend up on the guys you like. You can get a QB for basically nothing, spend $1 on D/ST and K, and there will be great late round guys that go for $2-$3. You don't need to break the bank on a player, but don't be afraid to pay above market value. And don't draft a team of only mid round players. You need some studs to win
.....and this is why I am a subscriber!!
Just going to ignore injury risk in this video I see. The majority of running backs going in the second and third rounds have very extreme injury risks. That's why the WRs are going where they are. You need to capitalize on the first 3-5 rounds of a draft, otherwise you are throwing your season away on draft day. A top tier WR who is a low risk pick is a perfect follow up to a first round back, if you're lucky enough to get one. Otherwise don't be afraid to go double WR and then grab RBs. I have lots of money tied up in drafts and that is definitely a solid strategy this year if you get a back end spot.
Cole Train the bust rates are nearly identical. It’s just public perception that they’re riskier
Does this mean you should be taking RB's over Hopkins, Adams, Julio, OBJ? (after the big 4 RB's are gone)
For instance, I have the #5 pick...and I was thinking Hopkins, but I also was thinking Connor. Connor is WAY down the list on rankings, so I just felt that wasn't smart....
Please break down the quarterback position and why the later rounds are ideal for draft day. Great content though!!
Awesome video, Nick!
What about using your first two pics on quarterbacks?
I got Brady and brees so I had a good quartback but I also stole a quarterback I was to play against.
I find danger in running backs because it is the spot with the most turn over eg injury. KC if you take Damien Williams do you have to take Ware as well because it’s running back by committee?
I find everyone is drafting the running backs in the first 4 rounds and some are just hot and cold. Look at the Pats they have no solid rb because they change their strategy every week. If I am wrong please let me know
aight Wil Lutz round 3 it is
Literally how my wife won our fantasy league a few years back. All this planning is great, but in actuality most people following all this draft advice won't see the playoffs
SOTD jaylen samuels
Make sure and grab your kicker and team D in rounds 3 and 4!
My wife made a guest appearances in our league one year...that was her strategy and she won it all. Just goes to show, all this game plan flys in the wind once the season starts rolling. We are all going to pissed, when*fill in the blank* breaks his ankle in week 2. It happens every year. AB is still going to kill this year. So will Bell. GO EAGLES!
I did a Mock about 5 mins ago and this is how I started off my team - WR1 Michael Thomas, TE - Travis Kelce, WR2 - Amari Cooper, then Flex - Brandon Cooks. With my first 4 picks I landed Amazing value in my honest opinion. Sure I did not get a Stud RB, but I landed Lindsey, and J White, and L Murray. My QB was Matty Ice. I think if I can land that in a real draft, I don't mind having those kinds of RBs. What you think? Thoughts?? Thanks as always amazing Content!!
I think you are going to struggle unless you unearth a stud RB in FA. There's too much pressure on those first 4 picks to put up an avg of 15 points per player and relying on that from pass catchers...is hard. you will have a couple amazing weeks, you could also have a couple weeks where your team is destroyed. The variance would be way too high for my liking.
@@marcsousa4904 It depends where you pick in the draft. Everyone is going on and on about how important a rb is in the first couple rounds....however if you just play it safe you will not win your fantasy league either. If you just follow trends(everyone starts picking rb you pick rb or everyone picks a wr you grab one in fear of them all being gone) you will always be behind against your opponents teams.
@Nick great video like most of the content you produce. I’m interested to hear TFFBA on draft strategies of 6 pt passing TD leagues .
danny a thanks
Nice video I agree with this strategy.
given the opportunity, james Connor or Dalvin cook...which one you taking?
Connor
I'm from Pittsburgh and that is tough, but I'd go Conner. If you watch Cook run he is not shifty, he goes down easily and he is often injured. Cook's biggest weapon is his speed, but Conner is fast with power and is somewhat elusive.....
Whenever I mock and I pass on DHop or Adam's I regret it because I like the rbz that I can get a little later,Carson,Mack,Henry,Lindsay,Ingram etc
Alley Oop ! I’ve been feeling the same way. With the run on RBs to start the draft, there’s a spot in the first round where your choice is between Hopkins/Adams or a second tier RB, most of whom have some significant risk factor. Those two are just too good to pass on in favor of a risky RB that I’m not much more comfortable with than I’d be with an RB in the Mack/Henry tier. That said, if my first round pick falls where I can’t pass on Hopkins/Adams, I’m absolutely going RB with my next two if not three picks.
@@bovinejoni4243 do you think Dhop or adams is worth a first round or always go with a RB as first pick?
Noah Homyak if you can’t get one of the top-tier RBs, I’m comfortable taking one of those two, although they’re pretty much the only two WRs I’m feeling in the first round. In my mocks, this tends to be most likely if you’re drafting in the 7-9 range. Before 7 you’re going to have a top-tier RB available, and after 9 Hopkins and Adams are probably gone and I’m taking two of the next tier RBs at the turn. Basically I’ve been trying to get three RBs in the first four rounds, and in mocks so far that means I end up taking a WR in the 4th with a top-6 pick, in the 1st with a 7-9 pick, and in the 3rd picking 8 or later. That’s just how my personal tiers tend to be falling. It seems like the only time I’m not taking an RB in the 2nd is if Kelce is available and the second tier RBs are all gone.
@@noahhomyak9477 I always go top wr, because the 2nd tier of rbz is not much better than the 3rd...Sometimes I'll go wr,wr then rb the next 3....
@@bovinejoni4243 I'll take Thomas,Kelce or Julio, bottom of the first and I have no problem going wr,wr and then rb with the next 3.
I ultimately agree with your conclusions. But the argument is that the bust rate is higher amoung early rbs, as is the turnover rate in top 12 finishes. For example, I didn't draft an rb until round 3 in 2017 and ended up with Gurley, Hunt and Kamara. Granted. I got very lucky that year. Last year I drafted DJ and Fournette with my first 2 picks and they sucked, although I made up for it with Chubb and Mack later. Had I known that Chubb and Mack were going to end up being my starters, I would have been WAY better off taking AB and D.Adams with my first 2 picks. Same goes for my buddies who took D.Cook, D.Freeman and L.Bell. Very rarely do you see top WRs bust like that, and the turnover rate is lower. If you draft a top 10 WR you are more than likely going to get a top 10 finish with that guy. If you draft DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson as your starters, I'm sorry, but they are not going to finish as top wrs, as much as you are trying to convince yourself that they will. *of course this does not apply to picks 1:01-1:04, take the backs...but it applies if you are picking in the bottom half of round 1 and all the elite Wrs are on the board.
The bust rate is nearly identical in the early rounds for WRs and RBs
@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA Maybe top 4 or 5 running backs that's true with. Here is the main problem...I have a draft tomorrow and I pick 7th overall. It's a 2qb ppr league so I would assume someone is definitely going to pick mahomes before I come up(I wouldnt pick him in first round anyway). That leaves 5 other picks before I go. The smart move would be the picks are the 4 top runningbacks and Hopkins. I would be an idiot not to pick d Adam's at this point according to rankings. The ranked 5th and 6th rbs dont make me as comfortable as a top 3 guy who could easily be number 1 this year(especially with a roster that holds 3 wr). That also could cause a ripple affect to have the 10 picks between my 1st pick and second go ham on wrs and I can still grab a great rb in the 2nd or kelce. Or they could ignore me and keeping plugging at rb and I can grab a 2nd top 10 or top 15 wide receiver and just g ok for rb when everyone turns attention on qb or wr theirselves. It's all about starting a trend not about following one.
In standard, TEs drop off way more than that. Last year if you didn’t have Kelce kittle or ertz it’s whoever catches a TD that week
Got Barkley Conner and brown first three picks 10 team ppr. Someone is offering Hilton and Damien Williams for Conner. Do I do it?
Yes!
tish nepal if you don’t then you’re stupid
tish nepal you got any room in this league :-) yea take the deal
Frenchy8329 you aren’t scared with Andy Reid saying they are definitely doing a running back by committee this year?
Hydro Archives idk. Andy Reid came out and said he’s definitely going to do a running back by committee.
I'm curious if that graph was the finish of the RBs v WRs, or the finish of the drafted RBs v WRs. Iow, ho predictible are the upper RBs compared to the upper WRs? If the upper RBs are more predictible (in addition to scoring at a higher rate), then it would make sense that you should pound RBs early and often and kinda go zero-WR. But if the upper RBs aren't as predictible / if upper WRs bust less often, then it might still be worth it to draft WRs early. Thanks for the info!
This is what I did. Got mcCaffery, Mixon, Cook, and Carson in a deep league.. and a bunch fringe and boom or bust WRs 😂😂😂
Engram is a good value at his ADP with so many targets.
Do you have to purchase the draft rankings/projections this year? I remember it was free last year. However I'd still be interested in purchasing it!
Yea the projections are new this year, and the rankings are now behind the pay wall
Please list the players name/s on screen so we can skip if we need to
If passing touchdowns are 6 points where do you recommend to take top qbs and other qbs? Some people take qb round 1 in this league idk if that’s the right strategy
Alexander Chao just draft Philip rivers in the 300th round ....in all seriousness you can grab rivers in like 12rd usually and he steady gets 20+ points
I did a few mocks to test some of your ideas and I have to say your advice is spot on. I like the looks of my teams, there is great QB value in the late rounds, and most of your sleepers are flying under the radar at this point. Though I can't predict injuries and point projections will vary somewhat, I feel much more confident going into the season.
10 team league, banking on everyone sleeping on Chubb in the third and going Hill/Beckham 1&2. Anyone agree Chubb has top 5 RB potential weeks 1-8?
Someguy1302 Chubb should not be there in the 3rd in most leagues
Chubbs definitely gonna produce first 8 weeks. I wouldn’t go hill/Beckham first 2 picks though. No guarantee Chubb is still there and you’re passing up a lot of solid rbs
Dmetal#1 indeed he’s up and down. In half ppr he had 8 weeks with 11 points or less. Plus chiefs have a really tough schedule this year
Chubb def has top 5 upside. There’s no guarantee K. Hunt is even going to take away from his work load come Week 10 like everyone keeps saying.
I've practiced over 20 mock drafts using your rb zero strategy.. now you release this...contradicts no?
It’s all about value. If people are reaching on RB and you have a late first round pick then RB Zero is viable. I said at the beginning that there is no one best strategy. You need to understand all of them and be able to adapt to how your league drafts. Not every draft opens itself up for RB Zero
what he said...look @ ADP & tiers, do a ton of mocks, think about how u want ur team structured & who u like/don't like...u can come up with ur own strategy/system
Good break down.
RB early and often is the way to go 11 times out of 10.
I signed up for your draft package threw DraftKings how long usually till I get my package
we get updates 3 times a day. So not too long
SOTD tarik cohen
SOTD: James White
Stat of the day: Jalen Richard
I didn't realize what x and y were on the graph until the end of the video. no idea why based on your graph why Kelce was good to take in late 1st round
Sotd Jalen Richard
ANY ADVICE ON DRAFTING IN AN AUCTION DRAFT?
So by this data would you say that going back to back rb with first 2 picks is a good strat?
Usually yes
SOTD: Duke Johnson
SOTD - Gurley ??
applying this thought process to my own roster format:
[2RB, 3WR, 0-flex]
Given now the comp of a start-worthy/highly drafted WR with a bench WR is different, how is value effected when you’re on the clock? In this case (using your analysis), could one mark the case that drafting a WR in the mid 1st round ‘could’ be considered a good idea?
A response from anybody would be appreciated! Thanks.
Under that format I just wouldn't go as RB heavy early. You can only start 2, so I wouldn't take 3 in the first 4 rounds. Could start out the first three with some combo of 2 RB and a WR
Fantasy Football Advice love it, thanks for the response
SOTD: Alvin Kamara
I really want to get your guys draft kit. With my mocks I’m always having difficultly in the 4th round.
Also do you guys keep your draft kit up to date throughout the season for like maybe waiver wire or something?
Man this is the best draft kit you can get in the industry not even close! Get it follow the advice, and you will be in the playoffs
Yea you get the in season content as well
So would you rather draft Gordon/Conner/Mixon than Adams/Hopkins on pick 7? I‘m in a 14 teams league and dont know what to do if Ezekiel, Kamara CMC DJ and Saquon are gone
In a 14 team league I'd lock up an RB with my 7th pick. RBs will be gone very quickly with those extra teams in your league.
You can safely assume that the top 5 RBs will be gone by your turn.
Which one? I dont like soneone like Conner, Mixon, Bell or at the moment Gordon instead of Adams
@@lsommer77ls Well, if you don't like a player, I guess don't draft them. So, I suppose it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if you took a WR like Adams. I'd just be sure to not miss out on the next batch of RBs after the first round.
You can get away with going WR in round 1. But don't wait much longer than that to get your RBs in a 14 team league.
If I were in your position I'd go for Gordon (in spite of his contract concerns).
Thank you! Maybe there are some further informations til 20th august, our draft day
Nick thanks for doing all the heavy lifting so we don't have to 🏋️🏋️🏋️
SOTD: Tarik Cohen
14 team standard league. You have the 13th pick who are you looking at ur first 2 picks.
Adamantium_TV Live who still does standard leagues???
@@DontbemadUPSishiring this guy
Being that late in a league that size, I likely go for the best RB available. Especially with it being standard. In standard leagues, pretty much lock up as many good RBs as you can in the early rounds.
Great Advice. I'm going to beat my co-workers this year
Nice vid bro. Ur too smart for me with ur big econ words😁 im still scared to draft kelce cuz of injury concerns but we shall see
Chris Thompson
@Nick Zylak: What happened with SOTD from Thursday, which was RB with highest YPC from shotgun? The Friday video was out of order and didn't list the answer.
Dalvin Cook
@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA sweet, thanks!
Does you package work for non PPR leagues
Yes
I want to purchase the draft guide and all that jazz... But I think my league will be 6 pts per TD pass for Quarterbacks and I believe -2 pts per interception
I don’t want to make a purchase for no reason. Am I overthinking this?
The projections have a column for 6 point passing TDs
Fantasy Football Advice Not your first rodeo huh? Thanks man. I’m gonna trust you guys. Try not to blow it man 😂
What about double qb league? Do I target at least one qb early? (1-5)
B White draft qb 5-6
Would it be stupid to trade my 2nd and 3rd round picks for the #2 over all pick? I have the number 1 pick. Or should I trade my 1st pick for a 2nd and 3rd round pick?
I would trade #1 for 2 and 3..I have the 1st overall pick and that sounds great to me
squalman 85 I don’t like any of the 2nd or 3rd round RBs and I like a lot of the late WRs
@@blu_thunder1580 ya that's a good point..there seems to be so many WRs this year..Who you going #1? I think im going Kamara..I was on Barkely but the giants blow and all teams have to do is focus on him
squalman 85 I want to get Zeke and Kamara. But I’m a little hesitant on kamara so maybe CMC.
@@blu_thunder1580 why are you hesitant on Kamara? I have no interest with CMC..i just don't see hum as a #1 pick but i could be wrong..As fir Zeke no friggin way will i take him. This holdout could go on for a while
Sotd.....Christian mccaffrey
So, you don't value Evan Engram as much as O.J. Howard and Hunter Henry?
I think engram was grouped with ertz etc he just didnt mention him
I went rb heavy and still got Adam thielen and Kenny Gollday
I can draft at any # in my league ...... what # you going with ? 1-12
C. D. 6
Has to be Alvin Kamara
Duke Johnson SOTD
Stat of the day: David Johnson
Don’t take him i drafted him first round last year and now i have 0 hope for him
Ben Dova I have first pick first round last year and got him and he was such a bust. Totally should’ve picked gurley instead
Juju?
eckler - SOTD
Do a ppr one
Tarik Cohen is the answer
Sotd Tarik cohen
Dion lewis
Duke Johnson for sotd
SOTD Cooper Kupp
AMAZING
Damn! This content is too smart for me...my head hurts...all these numbers! 😆
Michael Reyes and the graphs had no labels so i had no clue what they were supposed to represent
Just draft the guys that you like, all this info is just a guide to break a tie really.
Stat of the day: Theo riddick
lol yall gonna purchase the draft kit and still end up bombing the draft. Just do your own research and create your own strategy.
well said, mate! take the advice of these fantasy "experts" but have some individuality | creativity & come up w ur own baseline for a strategy to ur draft🏈🐨🇳🇿🏈🐨🇳🇿
Kamara
Do the QB video like this
The unlabeled X&Y axis are burning my brain cells.... sooooo confused!!!!
Sotd Alvin kamara
Stat James white
The drop-off from kelce to ertz is gonna be very small. This is ertz year.
jared burgess with adding Jackson, white side and more running backs plus goedert? I don’t think so
Nope
Duke Johnson jr
My league is 6 pts per touchdowns, even qb's. Also ppr. Now where does kelce get drafted?
Does T.Hill's no suspension effect D.Williams current ADP?
Nope
In standard leagues if you don't draft 3 rbs in ur first 4 rounds u are fucked especially since wrs are deep qbs are deep and te are literally 2 good ones and the rest are about the same
Is this the guy that used to make madden videos
Nope