4:24 I have to disagree. Sealed boxes of any kind more often than not don’t reflect the value of the cards inside. The sealed box itself becomes the rare item not the cards in it.
The only 'issue' I have with it is that there is technically an underlying value to the collectible. If it's just a single card, then it's worth whatever the market deems it to be worth. I don't know if this is why vintage magic is also on the decline, but it seems odd that the contents wouldn't at least equal the value of the sealed collectible item. Just my take / opinion though, that market is gonna market.
@ it works both ways. How can a box be worth more than the singles inside?…… well how can a box be under the singles inside allowing you to arbitrage. Boils down to perceived value, demand of the product, and availability of the product explicitly if it’s out of print. Each opened sealed box make the next sealed box worth more than the cards inside because it’s a sealed box. How is a revised started deck 1100 when the highest duel land is $700? The box becomes the collectible not the cards inside. Long term gain in tcg anything is buy and hold sealed. Short term and daily profit is singles.
Was able to get 6 boxes of MH3 for about $184.22 all in - nice to hear the expected value is so high - appreciate the videos - I’ll get my many extra singles to market eventually
When you buy your lot of boxes, is your objective to open every single one for selling singles? Or do you choose to open some for singles and keep a set amount sealed to sell whole? Just curious.
It depends I suppose. I make large orders on sets that have solid upside, so in that case I don't need to rip them open and flash sell them right away, I'm already in the green. The thing is I am focusing on selling singles, so inventory drops off quickly in direct. I like being able to rotate through openings and keep everything stocked at a rate that works for me at this moment in time. Meaning if I opened 30 boxes of something and listed it all at once, it might sell out quick and here I am with no inventory. Every time I buy some I do plan on keeping some sealed though, just for collecting / investing purposes.
For recent sets you can run iterations on MTGBoxSim (it doesn't always work though), in the video I mention MoxAlpha which I mainly use now, but that does cost money. You can also create the probability calculations based on pull rates that WOTC outlines.
Let's say a set had 100 commons, 50 uncommons, 25 rares, 10 mythics and 1 extended You'd compile the price of all of those for each rarity individually, divide them to get an average for each rarity, and then multiply by the pull rate for the given set It's easier if a set has specific expected numbers for a booster box/case, but even if you don't, if you compile enough data you can figure out rough numbers and just multiply by the average price. So if the average mythic in a set is $11, and you get 25 mythics in a case, then the EV from those mythics should be $275. Obviously you can go below or above that, but that's why you need scale.
Nobody wants curled foils anymore, they just want to play with cards. Wizards destroyed quality. It won't take long till they get back to one booster pack again.
I’m assuming bulk single market is going to increase. Especially with the EV closing closer to sealed boxes. As well with magic being more player game focused compared (imo) to pokemon collectible style.
It seems it has a bit.. for example when I started out on Karlov Manor, EV was $180, boxes were $100, now the boxes have climbed to $125ish and the EV has climbed to $205. So pretty proportional... But some gaps have closed incredibly quick. Depends on the set I guess!
I'm curious about where you're getting your EV statistics from. My experience with Bloomborrow was exceptionally good, but primarily from the chase foils that were mostly part of the Bloomburrow Commander ID, despite being in the Collector boxes. Is the EV you're seeing including those chase mythics? 6 boxes net me 3 different ones, including Baylen and Mrs. Bumbleflower, the two singles of which paid for nearly four of my collector boxes. The full art three tree cities also sold well. I guess I just got exceptionally lucky?
I currently use MoxAlpha for ease -- but it has been wrong before. It does include the high value chase cards, but I've seen it mess up before where it's overstated EVs as well. That does sound like a pretty solid hit rate though! Were you net positive across all the boxes?
@@GameVitamins I was break even or even negative on 4 boxes, but positive in the other 2 enough to net about +40 per box. A tiny over 250 positive. I'm guessing it's just very high variance due to the chase cards being extremely high value. Side note - thanks for doing what you've been doing. It's a really nice look into what it takes to get into it all.
I am watching Thanks again!
You saw it before anyone else!
almost 2 k! love your channel
Thanks for the support, almost there!
Love the videos, very informative. Keep it up!
Appreciate the support! Glad the videos are helpful!
4:24 I have to disagree. Sealed boxes of any kind more often than not don’t reflect the value of the cards inside. The sealed box itself becomes the rare item not the cards in it.
The only 'issue' I have with it is that there is technically an underlying value to the collectible. If it's just a single card, then it's worth whatever the market deems it to be worth. I don't know if this is why vintage magic is also on the decline, but it seems odd that the contents wouldn't at least equal the value of the sealed collectible item. Just my take / opinion though, that market is gonna market.
@ it works both ways. How can a box be worth more than the singles inside?…… well how can a box be under the singles inside allowing you to arbitrage. Boils down to perceived value, demand of the product, and availability of the product explicitly if it’s out of print.
Each opened sealed box make the next sealed box worth more than the cards inside because it’s a sealed box. How is a revised started deck 1100 when the highest duel land is $700? The box becomes the collectible not the cards inside.
Long term gain in tcg anything is buy and hold sealed. Short term and daily profit is singles.
Was able to get 6 boxes of MH3 for about $184.22 all in - nice to hear the expected value is so high - appreciate the videos - I’ll get my many extra singles to market eventually
Great cost basis!
When you buy your lot of boxes, is your objective to open every single one for selling singles? Or do you choose to open some for singles and keep a set amount sealed to sell whole? Just curious.
It depends I suppose. I make large orders on sets that have solid upside, so in that case I don't need to rip them open and flash sell them right away, I'm already in the green. The thing is I am focusing on selling singles, so inventory drops off quickly in direct. I like being able to rotate through openings and keep everything stocked at a rate that works for me at this moment in time. Meaning if I opened 30 boxes of something and listed it all at once, it might sell out quick and here I am with no inventory. Every time I buy some I do plan on keeping some sealed though, just for collecting / investing purposes.
People don't talk about this aspect it takes a lot to keep up with the market and adapt to it there's a lot of chasing the Tail of the Dragon
Always need to be watching the market to find the opportunities that’s for sure!
how do you go about figuring the EV?
For recent sets you can run iterations on MTGBoxSim (it doesn't always work though), in the video I mention MoxAlpha which I mainly use now, but that does cost money. You can also create the probability calculations based on pull rates that WOTC outlines.
Let's say a set had 100 commons, 50 uncommons, 25 rares, 10 mythics and 1 extended
You'd compile the price of all of those for each rarity individually, divide them to get an average for each rarity, and then multiply by the pull rate for the given set
It's easier if a set has specific expected numbers for a booster box/case, but even if you don't, if you compile enough data you can figure out rough numbers and just multiply by the average price.
So if the average mythic in a set is $11, and you get 25 mythics in a case, then the EV from those mythics should be $275. Obviously you can go below or above that, but that's why you need scale.
Nobody wants curled foils anymore, they just want to play with cards. Wizards destroyed quality. It won't take long till they get back to one booster pack again.
Curling foils.. bane of my existence. I have put them under weights for days and no change.
@@GameVitamins i try and move foils fast specifically for this reason. Non-Foils are where it's at.
@@GameVitaminstry using bovida 62% packs and put them in Tupperware or if your doing a ton buy a cigar humidor. Straightens them up.
@@MrMADMADHATTER1 Agreed, it's painful to pull a foil and see the C shape.
Add humidity to your cards and they won't curl still annoying tho
I’m assuming bulk single market is going to increase. Especially with the EV closing closer to sealed boxes. As well with magic being more player game focused compared (imo) to pokemon collectible style.
It seems it has a bit.. for example when I started out on Karlov Manor, EV was $180, boxes were $100, now the boxes have climbed to $125ish and the EV has climbed to $205. So pretty proportional... But some gaps have closed incredibly quick. Depends on the set I guess!
I was able to find the LOTR Commander decks discounted at Costco and bought a few and flipped for a lil profit.
Nice! Gotta find any deal you can out there
I'm curious about where you're getting your EV statistics from. My experience with Bloomborrow was exceptionally good, but primarily from the chase foils that were mostly part of the Bloomburrow Commander ID, despite being in the Collector boxes. Is the EV you're seeing including those chase mythics? 6 boxes net me 3 different ones, including Baylen and Mrs. Bumbleflower, the two singles of which paid for nearly four of my collector boxes. The full art three tree cities also sold well. I guess I just got exceptionally lucky?
I currently use MoxAlpha for ease -- but it has been wrong before. It does include the high value chase cards, but I've seen it mess up before where it's overstated EVs as well. That does sound like a pretty solid hit rate though! Were you net positive across all the boxes?
@@GameVitamins I was break even or even negative on 4 boxes, but positive in the other 2 enough to net about +40 per box. A tiny over 250 positive. I'm guessing it's just very high variance due to the chase cards being extremely high value.
Side note - thanks for doing what you've been doing. It's a really nice look into what it takes to get into it all.
Bloomburrow Commander Decks restocked and can be had for $150-$170. Seems like a great entry point..
I may or may not have already placed a large order in that price range 👀 (I did)