Stick with this one; it gets easier to understand as it goes along! But if you’re struggling👇🏻read more👇🏻 The software used is this video is designed to stress test a retirement plan (and investment portfolio) to see how it would have held up if we had initiated the plan at any point over the last 105 years. I use this to show clients how the plan I have built for them would have held up even if the Great Depression of the 1930’s, or the high inflation of the 1970’s, was to start next year. In this example, it’s a 40 year plan (55yo to 95yo), so it’s taking into account every possible starting month between 1915 and 1981 (780 scenarios in total) and analysing if the plan would have run out of money or not. If the success rate is 75% it means 25% of the scenarios would have run out of money before the clients reached 95. The software takes into account portfolio allocation (I have used a passive portfolio that matches the makeup of global equity markets) the tax treatment of income, investment wrappers, and inflation. Extreme scenarios that fall below the 10th and above the 90th percentiles are not shown on the graph. But they are accounted for in the success score. The success score only goes up to 99% because although the plan may have held up in the past, there is no certainty that it will hold up in the future...
@Wooly Chewbakker well, some like to ensure they are leaving a legacy pension to the kids if they don’t live until Betty sends us a letter, or to make sure they don’t run out of money to live on.
This is a good grounding for us all, it’s not a one to one consultation which in reality a lot of us require as we get closer to 55 upwards. Watching videos like this will chivvy many to seek professional advice.
I’m never quite sure why we aren’t taught anything like this in school - so thank you for putting it on the internet, breaking it down brilliantly for normal people!
The reason it's not taught in schools is because the elite need farm animals, ie ordinary people, to keep them there. If everybody was educated at childhood, who would do the crap jobs? State education has one purpose, to create menial workers. Sadly for many of us, there was nobody to help us understand this at the time. The youngsters have the benefit of time and the internet. Those of us over 45 grew up without the internet, and got old before the knowledge became widely accessible.
@@thesesweetpages Well I wouldn't use learning about pi as an example of something less relevant. It's critical to maths skills which in turn are critical to any kind of financial literacy. However I agree with your point. More teaching of life skills would be a good thing. Sadly in my day I don't think the teachers had any life skills to pass on.
@@H-Zazoo 'in school you think you'll live forever'. Indeed that's true. And it's right that kids should be allowed to be optimistic. But as adults, it's surely our duty and privilege to guide the next generation to help them make good decisions. Sadly school doesn't do that. Or it certainly didn't when I was a kid. We were taught that a good life comes from relentless hard work doing the worst jobs, and gradually working our way up, if we could convince someone else we were worthy. There's nothing wrong with starting at the bottom of the ladder, except what they don't tell you is it's not your ladder. Everything you do, if you follow school guidance, is about lining someone else's pockets, while staying poor enough, tired enough, and sufficiently naive that you don't try to change the broken system. Thankfully kids today have access to far more information than any generation before them, so for us oldies, while it might be too late to make a massive difference for ourselves, we at least have a better chance of guiding our kids down a better path.
I'm actually rather astonished at how helpful this video has been in just 15 minutes! What wise, compassionate and insightful advice, thank you so much James
Thanks James. I watched this video 2 years ago, & it helped me get my head in the right space to plan & know I’ll be ok. I was made redundant last year at 53! & I’m not going to full time work! I’m now ‘working’ 4 months a year in European ski resorts. The rest of the year I’ll study, go to the gym, travel & visit my elderly folks. I don’t plan to touch my pension until 67. Thankfully I have other income streams
You are bloody brilliant! I'm 60 and I've been self employed all my working career. I've invested in markets and count myself as someone interested in and quite savvy in finance. However, retirement - when to, how much to have etc is a minefield. In 15 mins you have managed to make so much sense of the landscape and I now feel much for knowledgable about how to progress. Thank you, thank you. I'm going to share to all my friends
Increase the risk? Increase risk? … I was so happy, when I heard you said that, 50% of the way through ! YES YES YES ! I think I’m these “high inflation “ times, many of us need to expose ourselves to a little more risk. (With the safeguards you describe)
Great video showing how one dimensional the simple drawdown calculators available online are. I haven't seen any calculator online from any of the major providers cover things like taking more income from 55-67 and then taking less drawdown income from state pension age. Similarly no option to reduce income from age 75 or 80. These are quite simple concepts which could potentially be the difference between being able to retire early and "just working a few more years".
Really interesting to know about the guardrails - I'd seen lots of monte carlo simulations, and knew about the 4% rule - but I'd never seen guardrails and monte carlo simulations run together - very interesting and definitely going to play around with timeline.. Really enjoying your videos and had a good look through a lot of them this weekend. Thanks.
Thanks for this one James! I'm only 37 but these videos give me the confidence to realise that I can hopefully retire a lot earlier than I'd planned on doing 😁
Recently found your channel and really enjoying the content. Very easy to understand. Would really like a dedicated video to the guard railing strategy
James, thank you so much for this. I am 66 and retired last year. I have a plan with variable income levels, so I will compare what I am doing now with the plan here. I am also looking forward to the next video where you say you will be looking at other strategies.
I’ve watched a lot of content recently on FI and pension ages etc.. All have been pretty helpful and given me some good ideas. This one though… I feel like I’ve just found out the one piece of critical information that all the pension calculators in the world will not show you. Thank you very much for the advice I will keep a close eye on your channel and recommend you to anyone (even my dad who was a financial adviser as well). Cheers!
What an amazing video! Very pleased I found your channel at 24 so that I can make smart, strategic financial decisions towards retirement. Thanks James 😊
Excellent watch, thank you. My question though is this. ‘Pulling levers’, what are these levers and how do you pull them? I suspect this is a subject all of its own.
As a recently retired teacher, I completely agree with you. We do teach basic economics to special needs students but not to the wider student body, and they do need it.
@@kickedinthecalfbyacow7549 You can't predict much, but you can try to make them financially literate, to think for themselves and not to rely on state benefits if they can start early.
I think this is great and picks apart some of the issues with the 4% rule really well. I think it is important to be realistic about likely spending patterns in retirement though. In theory it's definitely possible to adjust spending to cope with market ups and downs. In reality I think the evidence shows that people almost always spend most in the early years of retirement when their health is (hopefully) still good and they have lots of plans and free time. I think it would be really hard to push those plans back while waiting for markets to recover (if they have dropped). So the theory may be very difficult to carry out in practice! Great content as always though, really well explained!
Yes that’s right. I like to present people with the data and let them decide. If the markets fall and you still want to spend more, sure, just go into it with your eyes open. Understand what you may be sacrificing down the line.
James, this content is gold. For all the trash that’s out there on UA-cam, you and a couple of other channels still give me hope. Easiest sub I’ve given, and I’m looking forward to continuing binging all of your old videos. Keep it going!
Personally, I think this video is the best I have watched and not least because it is very pertinent to my situation. I just wish I had James as my FA.
Another epic video, great explanation and visual demonstrations throughout 👍 Can’t wait for the video on how to safely increase the risk of our portfolios 🧐
Fascinating analysis, and really gives me more confidence about managing the risks of investment in retirement. The one thing I’d loved to have seen is how low or high the drawdown was within the guardrails you mentioned. Are we talking £0 one year and £40k another?
Hey James! Love your videos. Tried to book a session with you but looks like you're so popular I'll have to wait until next year as the page doesn't let me book past the end of December! Look forward to learning about your services having finally got myself on track, about to complete on a house purchase etc. Speak soon!
James once again thank you for an informative and approachable video. It just really underlines the importance of getting proper, reliable and trustworthy financial advise.
I look forward to the video on the protections in place you mention 7:00 . A video on lifetime allowances would be good and the risks of investing too much. Great content James.
Hi James - love your videos on retirement - I retired this year at 55 when I did the maths and realised I could actually earn as much if not more From my investments and Sipp than I did working. I have a 12 month cash buffer. My investments / sipp are split 50% in dividend / income investment trusts and REITs paying 5 to 8% divs to create a secure ( as can be ) income per year ( none of my investment trusts reduced divs during covid crisis ) and 50% in growth / global investment trusts. Loved your previous video about not relying solely on dividends for income in retirement , I twigged this about 18 months ago when I realised The returns on investment trusts not paying dividends were far greater than those that paid higher dividends
I hadn’t heard of Guyton guardrails. Thanks. I have been nervous of retiring early. I know I can afford to retire but I can’t withdraw funds until I reach 59.5 without penalties.
Very well explained and I just subscribed! Just to supplement this excellent video:Vanguard came out with a research paper in June 2021 talking about safe withdrawal rates based on (lower than historical) future return expectations and how you can improve your possible outcomes by being mindful of expense ratios, diversifying equities internationally and by following a dynamic approach to spending levels, very much like explained in this video.
Great video James. Of the various FI calculators out there I quite like FICalc as it has a simple user interface and can model various draw down scenarios, including Guyton Klinger. Although it does not allow the user to reduce income later on in the financial independence (retirement) period.
Excellent illustration of this way of planning how robust your pension scheme is. Having a fixed income base such as a defined benefit scheme is imho critical for succesful retirement investments because it allows you to put more free money in stocks. Also diversification helps a lot. I advise 1/3 real estate to hedge inflation, 1/3 stocks for growth and 1/3 fixed pensions. This will allow people to defer some excess spending from their stock market investments in "down" years while avoiding holding bonds altogether.
@@JamesShack think the way US and UK annuities are built with high Bond inputs are much to blame for the very low returns. I got 11.5% in 2021. Yes, its certainly lower than the stock market - but I'm not complaining at all.
@@meibing4912 Wow, yes clearly the products do very different things. In the UK an annuity buys you a fixed income, or one that increase with inflation, in return for a lump sum of capital. Rate at the moments can be as bad as 2-3%, and that's fixed for life.
Great video, saw it recommended on Twitter by the pension twitterati I follow. I have read Abraham’s book about the 4% rule so had heard about guardrail approach before. Saving hard to be in a position to explore my options in 3 years time at age 55! also interesting to see you drop bonds early in the case study, I had this discussion with Abraham on Twitter a while back - bonds just don’t seem to make sense to me as an investment at the moment…
Great explanation - thank you! What do you think of the idea of long, low-rate fixed mortgages, never paid off unless the rates balloon, as a means of reducing the tax burden on drawdown in the upper rate tax band? The theory is that if you owe, say £100k, and you draw down additional income to repay the capital, then the marginal drawings to repay it will have cost you £167k, so you’ll have paid £67k in tax to repay the capital. When you die inheritance tax on the increased estate value will take another £40k, so you’ll pay an additional £107k in tax. By not repaying it you’ll reduce the drawdown load on you pension at the cost of the risk of rising interest rates, which you can always hedge against by securing long fixes when available, and if the numbers stop working you can still change tack and repay the debt.
If you’re over the residential nil rate band, or you know you want to downsize at some point in the future anyway it may be a good way to access capital tied up in your home. You do need to be comfortable with the fact that you are levering up to keep more money invested in stocks. But like you say the longer you can fix it the less risk.
Great videos thank you. I really want to finish work at 45 but I’m not sure how much I should have in my work pension pot at age 45 for it to look after itself and grow to a suitable amount by age 60. 😅 For example can I assume that it could grow by 5% average a year. For example: £350k pot at age 45 nothing else paid in until age 60 could grow to about £700k Would would cover the gap between 45 and 60 with other money.
Some stocks aren't back to the Dotcom bubble levels, so some could definitely loose money in the market. It only gets worse with margin, as margin calls are real
Hi James, I am a new follower, and I like your data-based/psychology-based style. I decided to retire early (and often - I took a year off every five or six years to travel) very early in life because I met a guy who was dying of cancer when he was 64, just before traditional retirement age. Even though I was only 19 I thought to myself "sod that! I’m going to retire well before I die!" At about the same time I read an article called ‘the miracle of compound interest’ or something like that. Well….I seem to be there! I have about £900K in my pension (I’m 53). Now I have discovered that I could fall foul of the lifetime allowance! I used to think the lifetime allowance was about how much money one puts INTO a pension but now I know (I think) that this is not the case. So a video about how to avoid any major tax penalties due to breaching this limit would be much appreciated.
Look on the bright side, those of us likely to breach LTA limits are in a good financial position. As I understand it this isn't the bogeyman people make it out to be, it just means paying more tax on some of what you draw out of your pension. Provided that's the same or less than the tax breaks on paying in (which it will be if you're staying under 100K net to preserve the personal allowance) then I believe it's still a win.
Hi, really like your videos. 51 and looking to retire soon (ish). In this video you talk about the couple having £40k of costs. You then model drawing £40k from the pot. Surely the drawdown will be taxable so they will need to draw down in excess of £40k. Due to the 25% tax free and the fact the pot is split between them, £20k each, £5k tax free, £15 taxable, less allowance = not much tax. In my case the pot is in my name so a much bigger tax hit unless I can transfer half my pot to my wife or take her allowance.
Thank you very much James - this is such an interesting and thought provoking video! I'm still slightly(!) worried about what might happen if I was unlucky enough to retire during a period of high inflation and/or low growth. For example, during the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation peaked at around 25% and even if averaged over a 10 year period it was over 14%. Did Guyton's Guardrails hold up during this time? If so, what happened? Did stocks grow even more so that they compensated for the inflation rise?
You would only ever need to use guardrails if you happen to be really unlucky and get a bad sequence of returns right at the beginning or retirement. But yes the guardrails are there hold you in check whatever happens, but obviously the worse the markets get the bigger clip you'll have to take on retirement income.
James, do you think that this is better than Nick Murrays idea to go into retirement with 5 years of living expenses in cash. So if the market goes down you dip into your cash reserve.Also what do you think of the idea of spending down your capital to say the age of 90 but leave a seperate pot invested to either leave to your heirs or to be used if you survive that long. Are we all becoming obsessed with NOT spending our retirement pot. Jim
Most people are totally unrealistic about how much they should need for retirement. Never aim for a percentage of your salary but what you can reasonably live on, otherwise you'll work until you are 75.
I would like to propose a different approach to determine the drawdown rate. I have tried to spreadsheet those Guyton's rules but the end results seems overcomplicated and it looks like those guardrail rules reduce the DD to below the poverty line. Maybe getting it wrong. It did show thought how badly can sequencing risk be. Trying to think openly, I suggest to set the drawdown to an increasing fraction of the pension funds. So if I want funds to last 40 years, I would DD 1/40th of it the first year, 1/39th the second, and so on. Simple. Spreadsheet seems to work well. Any growth in the funds increases the following years DDs, and viceversa. Works top down, gives how much you can DD for a given capital. It also works bottom up. If you want to reach a given level of DD, you can work out how much savings you need. Do you see any drawbacks?
The problem with the proportional strategies is that they don't match natural expenditure. You would also need a hell of a lot of money to do this strategy. If you want to spend £50k per year, and you're drawing 1/40th you need to start with a £2m portfolio. With such a low withdrawal rate it's highly likely that your yearly budget is going to keep increasing. So you'd end up with the lowest spending budget at the start of retirement, and the highest at the end. No one wants that. The main problem with these proportion based strategies is that they don't match natural expenditure. Your budget will jump around a lot with the markets, perhaps even 20% or 30% per year. It's hard to plan life and holidays 12 or 18 months in advance if you don't know what your budget is going to be. Retirees like more certainty than that. If you experience a poor sequence of returns, the least disruptive adjustments you can make is not to make inflationary upwards adjustments to your expenditure for a period of time. You barely notice the change from year to year and yet it adds up to a huge amount over the course of a lifetime. It's best not to treat this as a science, it's something you should assess every year with a flexible framework around how you make decisions. I would also start by asking "What do I want to spend?" rather than "What's the maximum income I can get?".
Amazing thank you James. Would you recommend building up a cash position to draw down upon in bad years? Either could use it to avoid taking money out of stocks altogether on a bad year, or to partially supplement a reduced drawdown from stocks?
A cash buffer can help smooth out the bad years. So you draw less income when the market is down but you also eat into your cash buffer so make it less painful.
Thanks for the great video. I wasn't aware of Guard Railing. How does one go about setting up guardrails? What is the difference between guardrails and ratcheting?
Thank James, great video. Looking forward to your video on Guyton paper. I’m struggling to understand the application of the Decision rules ‘Guardrails’. Is this paper suggesting that the withdrawal rate is increased by CPI, Preservation Rule or Prosperity Rule? Or is the initial withdrawal $ amount being adjusted by the CPI, Preservation Rule or Prosperity Rule?
Hi there. Thank you for this. My first view of your videos. Very interesting. Does your scenario factor in that you might need to move into an aged care home?
Hi James, excellent video as always, thanks. Can you do a video on when is the best time in the year to draw down money from a pension. Eg is the stock market usually higher in a particular month, or is it random? Thanks
It’s random. Any patterns that may developed are quickly recognised and eroded away. As in, if people started noticing the market went up in Jan, they’d start buying more in Dec, which would push the market up so that it stopped going up in Jan!
It would be useful to have shown the amount that you set for the lower bound on the guardrails and been clear on how many years that lower bound will be taken in order to get to 99%. It's one thing to to say "I want 40k but am willing to drop to 30k for a few years" but then to find that you can only draw the lower bound for 20 of the years in many of the scenarios would be a disappointment. Too much focus on the total and not enough on the annual spending. Can you fill in the full picture please?
Speaking of flexibility, you can retire overseas! Say you own [no mortgage] a property in Britain that is worth 250,000 pounds. If you sell it and move to Australia, you could probably buy at property worth at least AUS $ 500,000, probably more, depending on the exchange rate. Unless you go and live in inner Sydney, you can get a nice house [detached] and a quarter acre in the South West of Australia, or the South East. [especially Tasmania]. What about the heat? Well, the UK and Europe is experiencing heat waves more often and more severe, so the heat shock would probably be less than you think. And as I said, your money will go much further in regional/country Australia, so you can afford to have heaps of solar power, insulation, air conditioners, and devise a micro-climate for your property with tress, shade-cloth, etc. And an air conditioned car. Most are able to still receive their UK pension, and acquire at least some Australian pension, but obviously, these are means tested for assets and income. You place of residence [the family home, NOT an investment property] is free form the assets test, and so is your superannuation fund [while it is in accumulation mode, not drawing a pension from it].
Great video James helping to confirm all my plans! One question though: has anyone ever modelled a 3% or even 2% rule and if so how much does this de-risk any plan?
James, I’m really enjoying your vids. I am 31 and you are helping me navigate my retirement planning. Small question, how do I account for inflation? Ie- if I say I would like to recreate my current income for retirement how do I account for 30~yr inflation?
If your doing an excel model, just reduce the growth rates by 2-2.5%. 2.5% is a conservative estimate of inflation. If you reduce the growth rates it keeps everything in todays money.
I'm retired at 51, but worked average 60 hour weeks from 20 to 40 and did some great investments. Why don't more work harder when they are younger? And why do I feel so humble now?
Hi James, another great video, thanks. I was hoping you might compare the historic rate of return from the stock market with returns from Buy To Let (capital and revenue). I have enough, perhaps, for a BTL on a 60% LTV mortgage, would it be simpler/safer to invest in a tracker fund?
The practical aspect of the original 4% rule always baffled me, why would anyone fix their draw down rate at the very beginning of retirement based on 4% and NEVER adjusting it regardless of market conditions. I actually thought at first that the 4% rule meant recalculating the amount every year to get a new 4% amount for that year.
I Love your videos I am 55 in 3 months I have a fair pension pot and I own a 2 properties without mortgages I live in one rent the other but I love my job and I don’t want to retire I work from home most of the time get 8 weeks paid leave a year a needs car full healthcare which as you get older becomes even more important! and the company pay £750 a month into my pension whatever I do so why would I retire😊
In the example where you first achieved 95% success rate, which included the state pension kicking in at 67 (but beforethr art time work), as the couple's original target was £40,000 annually for at least the first 20yrs, what was the ceiling and floor values that you calculated for them, could I ask please? Could it for example have dropped to as low as £20,000 total, which potentially could have not left them with enough to do much more than exist? Thanks in advance, I'm really enjoying your content 😊
Good video James, but I do wish you would do one based on much more modest levels of income. Your example of a couple at 55 years old having assets worth £650k is a pipe dream for the average working couple. What advice would you offer a couple who had £100k at 55? or a couple in their 30s with a combined income of £50k?
Excellent video, i love the way that you follow the peaks and troughs, it would have been great though to see what the actual estimated money taken out would have looked like. I,e on a bad year would 20k have been a realistic figure or maybe 30k? same for the peaks, maybe 50k ?. Also how about having an emergency cash reserve of say 10k, so even with a bad year or two, your take home money would still be within the livable range.
Ah yes, this was the part I omitted. The worst case shortfall was £25k running for 15 years. But again that’s the worst possible scenario in the whole period. Best case was £55k (it’s capped so can’t go higher than this) but most scenarios had a lot of money left over at the end.
In reality you can be even more tactical than this, especially if you’re disciplined or using an adviser. So you could have 3 years cash, much higher risk portfolio, but in some years take almost no income.
@@JamesShack Yes, My situation is a bit different from normal, as my wife is 14 years or so younger than me and i have a 4 year old son(i am 49). so I am in a sort of interesting position where there will be income into the household well past my retirement date, but I dont want to leave her/my son short at the end either. So a tricky one :)
In a way, I try not ti be too prescriptive with these long term projections as it’s all so uncertain anyway. So keep it simple with things like reduced expenses at 75, or push this out to 80 if they’re healthy at 70. But I do always factor in long term care. Which is super expensive.
Pension £300k - WHAT! Sole reason I can even think about retiring is owning a house in London (mortgage free) but my 'pension' is non-existent, be lucky if I had £100k in total but I'm still going to retire early, if things get tight sell the house. That's my plan. A lot of people my age have NO pension.
So using this strategy, and I know this is just an example, once you've got the £650k pensions and savings, you can retire if you're happy with an income between these particular guard rails for the rest of your life? What were the guard rail values in this case? 50k ceiling and 24k floor (I guess that would be a no holiday year)? Obviously I guess this presumes a fully paid off mortgage too ahead of time. Edit: I see it's £55k and £25k. Obviously if your cash buffer is full, there's no need to take the £55k either (i.e., a long run of good years), so you can then follow a 'middle rail' of £40k if you don't want to have a splash out year.
Yes. The sequence of returns are so important. If you have a good first 5 years, you're away. But if it goes against you, that's when you need to adjust.
Please, please cover NHS pensions. Have no idea where my £££ is going and for what purpose... All i know is, I'm allegedly getting a good deal and it isnt the same as other pensions!
Interesting , i have £395,000 of private pensions all invested in the markets , i am 57 and would like to retire at 58 and could manage on an income of around £17 k , realistic following these principles ?
I never hear anyone mention the option of spending all the money. The 4% rule is based on never spending the principal. What is the actual point in that? If I have 300k when I'm 70 and I spend 15k every year + my state pension. And when I'm 90 (if alive) I have nothing. Why is that such a problem? Its like everyone wants to be the richest person in the grave yard.
@@JamesShack Yes, I get that. Maybe if they donated to charity whilst alive & gifted to family too then they'd enjoy their legacy while alive. I think the larger sums in pots, the larger % money managers make. It's not within the industries interest to tell people to spend their money.
Stick with this one; it gets easier to understand as it goes along!
But if you’re struggling👇🏻read more👇🏻
The software used is this video is designed to stress test a retirement plan (and investment portfolio) to see how it would have held up if we had initiated the plan at any point over the last 105 years.
I use this to show clients how the plan I have built for them would have held up even if the Great Depression of the 1930’s, or the high inflation of the 1970’s, was to start next year.
In this example, it’s a 40 year plan (55yo to 95yo), so it’s taking into account every possible starting month between 1915 and 1981 (780 scenarios in total) and analysing if the plan would have run out of money or not.
If the success rate is 75% it means 25% of the scenarios would have run out of money before the clients reached 95.
The software takes into account portfolio allocation (I have used a passive portfolio that matches the makeup of global equity markets) the tax treatment of income, investment wrappers, and inflation.
Extreme scenarios that fall below the 10th and above the 90th percentiles are not shown on the graph. But they are accounted for in the success score.
The success score only goes up to 99% because although the plan may have held up in the past, there is no certainty that it will hold up in the future...
Thank you Sir…very much appreciated. 👏🙌
@Wooly Chewbakker well, some like to ensure they are leaving a legacy pension to the kids if they don’t live until Betty sends us a letter, or to make sure they don’t run out of money to live on.
I just can’t believe these videos are free, brilliant content as always!! The most underrated youtuber
Cheers Reece!
Reece ! I agree
Take a peek at Nomad Capitalist too …
I was thinking the same thing. Financial education should be taught more in schools
@@maxflight777 cheers Max!
This is a good grounding for us all, it’s not a one to one consultation which in reality a lot of us require as we get closer to 55 upwards. Watching videos like this will chivvy many to seek professional advice.
I’m never quite sure why we aren’t taught anything like this in school - so thank you for putting it on the internet, breaking it down brilliantly for normal people!
The reason it's not taught in schools is because the elite need farm animals, ie ordinary people, to keep them there. If everybody was educated at childhood, who would do the crap jobs? State education has one purpose, to create menial workers. Sadly for many of us, there was nobody to help us understand this at the time. The youngsters have the benefit of time and the internet. Those of us over 45 grew up without the internet, and got old before the knowledge became widely accessible.
Because when you are in school you think that you are going to live forever, that's why.
@@H-Zazoo Surely that doesn’t have any impact on what you’re taught - children don’t design a syllabus, and are taught pi instead of life skills
@@thesesweetpages Well I wouldn't use learning about pi as an example of something less relevant. It's critical to maths skills which in turn are critical to any kind of financial literacy. However I agree with your point. More teaching of life skills would be a good thing. Sadly in my day I don't think the teachers had any life skills to pass on.
@@H-Zazoo 'in school you think you'll live forever'. Indeed that's true. And it's right that kids should be allowed to be optimistic. But as adults, it's surely our duty and privilege to guide the next generation to help them make good decisions. Sadly school doesn't do that. Or it certainly didn't when I was a kid. We were taught that a good life comes from relentless hard work doing the worst jobs, and gradually working our way up, if we could convince someone else we were worthy. There's nothing wrong with starting at the bottom of the ladder, except what they don't tell you is it's not your ladder. Everything you do, if you follow school guidance, is about lining someone else's pockets, while staying poor enough, tired enough, and sufficiently naive that you don't try to change the broken system. Thankfully kids today have access to far more information than any generation before them, so for us oldies, while it might be too late to make a massive difference for ourselves, we at least have a better chance of guiding our kids down a better path.
Great videos james . I have just hit 55 and this has helped me plan better to retire earlier than 67..
I'm actually rather astonished at how helpful this video has been in just 15 minutes! What wise, compassionate and insightful advice, thank you so much James
Thanks James. I watched this video 2 years ago, & it helped me get my head in the right space to plan &
know I’ll be ok.
I was made redundant last year at 53! & I’m not going to full time work! I’m now ‘working’ 4 months a year in European ski resorts. The rest of the year I’ll study, go to the gym, travel & visit my elderly folks. I don’t plan to touch my pension until 67. Thankfully I have other income streams
You are bloody brilliant! I'm 60 and I've been self employed all my working career. I've invested in markets and count myself as someone interested in and quite savvy in finance. However, retirement - when to, how much to have etc is a minefield. In 15 mins you have managed to make so much sense of the landscape and I now feel much for knowledgable about how to progress. Thank you, thank you. I'm going to share to all my friends
I'm glad you found it useful!
Increase the risk? Increase risk?
… I was so happy, when I heard you said that,
50% of the way through !
YES YES YES !
I think I’m these “high inflation “ times, many of us need to expose ourselves to a little more risk. (With the safeguards you describe)
You do great work James, one of the best UK financial UA-cam channels going 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Thanks Chris!
Great video showing how one dimensional the simple drawdown calculators available online are. I haven't seen any calculator online from any of the major providers cover things like taking more income from 55-67 and then taking less drawdown income from state pension age. Similarly no option to reduce income from age 75 or 80. These are quite simple concepts which could potentially be the difference between being able to retire early and "just working a few more years".
Very valid points. Let's face it who really needs a big pension at 80+.
@@bikeman123Care costs and not being able to do all the jobs you used to that now need to be paid for.
Really interesting to know about the guardrails - I'd seen lots of monte carlo simulations, and knew about the 4% rule - but I'd never seen guardrails and monte carlo simulations run together - very interesting and definitely going to play around with timeline.. Really enjoying your videos and had a good look through a lot of them this weekend. Thanks.
And welcome to the 6,000 new subscribers that have joined since I last posted! 🙌
That’s a massive figure…. But deserved!
James none of these scenarios normally take account of receiving the state pension at retirement age - glad you have added these in
Thanks for this one James! I'm only 37 but these videos give me the confidence to realise that I can hopefully retire a lot earlier than I'd planned on doing 😁
Fantastic!! Been watching UA-cam since it's conception, and that was one of the most informative videos I've seen 👍
Wow what an accolade! Thank you!
Thank you James, grateful for your generosity. Well presented and to the point.
Recently found your channel and really enjoying the content. Very easy to understand. Would really like a dedicated video to the guard railing strategy
James, thank you so much for this. I am 66 and retired last year. I have a plan with variable income levels, so I will compare what I am doing now with the plan here. I am also looking forward to the next video where you say you will be looking at other strategies.
Brilliant James! Especially your criticism and analytical skills regarding the decision making processes
I’ve watched a lot of content recently on FI and pension ages etc.. All have been pretty helpful and given me some good ideas. This one though… I feel like I’ve just found out the one piece of critical information that all the pension calculators in the world will not show you. Thank you very much for the advice I will keep a close eye on your channel and recommend you to anyone (even my dad who was a financial adviser as well). Cheers!
Hi Chris, thats epic! I'm glad it was helpful, and yes please do share!
What an amazing video! Very pleased I found your channel at 24 so that I can make smart, strategic financial decisions towards retirement. Thanks James 😊
Excellent watch, thank you. My question though is this. ‘Pulling levers’, what are these levers and how do you pull them? I suspect this is a subject all of its own.
The fact that personal finance education such as this is never even touched upon during secondary school/A-levels etc. is absolute madness.
As a recently retired teacher, I completely agree with you. We do teach basic economics to special needs students but not to the wider student body, and they do need it.
@@Crusty_Camper how can you teach school children what the pension rules will be in fifty years?
@@kickedinthecalfbyacow7549 You can't predict much, but you can try to make them financially literate, to think for themselves and not to rely on state benefits if they can start early.
Best retirement planning presentation I have seen ever.
Glad you liked it!
I think this is great and picks apart some of the issues with the 4% rule really well. I think it is important to be realistic about likely spending patterns in retirement though. In theory it's definitely possible to adjust spending to cope with market ups and downs. In reality I think the evidence shows that people almost always spend most in the early years of retirement when their health is (hopefully) still good and they have lots of plans and free time. I think it would be really hard to push those plans back while waiting for markets to recover (if they have dropped). So the theory may be very difficult to carry out in practice!
Great content as always though, really well explained!
Yes that’s right. I like to present people with the data and let them decide. If the markets fall and you still want to spend more, sure, just go into it with your eyes open. Understand what you may be sacrificing down the line.
James, this content is gold. For all the trash that’s out there on UA-cam, you and a couple of other channels still give me hope. Easiest sub I’ve given, and I’m looking forward to continuing binging all of your old videos. Keep it going!
Thanks Mark - glad to be of service!
This is excellent. If only I could find advice like this in Finland where I now live (with previous UK defined benefit pension due too).
Looking forward to the next post, which hopefully delves more into the guard rail model and what that looks like for a real example
Great video, particularly good for me as many of the parameters used match my situation so I’m very reassured that I’m on the right path!
Personally, I think this video is the best I have watched and not least because it is very pertinent to my situation. I just wish I had James as my FA.
👍🏻
Extremely well explained in layman’s terms - Thank you James.
I like your message and the manner in which you communicate. Well done and new Subscriber. Thanks. D
Thank you. The video really helped my confidence in planning.
Your top man, so good stuff in your videos. Keep the good work up and share the wisdom you have :)
Thanks Ivo!
Another epic video, great explanation and visual demonstrations throughout 👍 Can’t wait for the video on how to safely increase the risk of our portfolios 🧐
Thanks! 👍
Fascinating analysis, and really gives me more confidence about managing the risks of investment in retirement. The one thing I’d loved to have seen is how low or high the drawdown was within the guardrails you mentioned. Are we talking £0 one year and £40k another?
The minimum is £25k and max is £55k. You would then ideally have a cash buffer to help smooth out the bad years.
Hey James! Love your videos. Tried to book a session with you but looks like you're so popular I'll have to wait until next year as the page doesn't let me book past the end of December! Look forward to learning about your services having finally got myself on track, about to complete on a house purchase etc. Speak soon!
Did you have your session? How did it go?
Just discovered this channel today, it's awesome
James once again thank you for an informative and approachable video. It just really underlines the importance of getting proper, reliable and trustworthy financial advise.
Thanks for watching Adrian!
I look forward to the video on the protections in place you mention 7:00 . A video on lifetime allowances would be good and the risks of investing too much. Great content James.
It would be very helpful if you put up a US dollar equivalent graphic on videos. Thanks for the help in planning my retirement. great video.
Loving your videos James. Thank you.
Hi James - love your videos on retirement - I retired this year at 55 when I did the maths and realised I could actually earn as much if not more
From my investments and Sipp than I did working. I have a 12 month cash buffer. My investments / sipp are split 50% in dividend / income investment trusts and REITs paying 5 to 8% divs to create a secure ( as can be ) income per year ( none of my investment trusts reduced divs during covid crisis ) and 50% in growth / global investment trusts. Loved your previous video about not relying solely on dividends for income in retirement , I twigged this about 18 months ago when I realised The returns on investment trusts not paying dividends were far greater than those that paid higher dividends
Thank for watching, keep learning and your style will evolve!
I hadn’t heard of Guyton guardrails. Thanks. I have been nervous of retiring early. I know I can afford to retire but I can’t withdraw funds until I reach 59.5 without penalties.
Fantastic info-video. I’m in this exact position now
Outstanding. I need to do this analysis.
Such great content and info for us FI nerds. Thanks James and I’m not surprised your channel is flying right now
Also please cover the LGPS if you can. It’s the largest single pension fund in the country (I think)
Thanks Atul!
Brilliant video. It really stands apart from most of the nonsense you see on most personal finance UA-cam videos. Thanks
Thanks Michael!
Very well explained and I just subscribed! Just to supplement this excellent video:Vanguard came out with a research paper in June 2021 talking about safe withdrawal rates based on (lower than historical) future return expectations and how you can improve your possible outcomes by being mindful of expense ratios, diversifying equities internationally and by following a dynamic approach to spending levels, very much like explained in this video.
Great video James. Of the various FI calculators out there I quite like FICalc as it has a simple user interface and can model various draw down scenarios, including Guyton Klinger. Although it does not allow the user to reduce income later on in the financial independence (retirement) period.
James, as always this is so brilliantly and clearly explained. Thank you!
Awesome Video. Lots of things to consider towards retirement. Thanks for idea how to look at it.
You’ve welcome Lukas!
Excellent illustration of this way of planning how robust your pension scheme is. Having a fixed income base such as a defined benefit scheme is imho critical for succesful retirement investments because it allows you to put more free money in stocks. Also diversification helps a lot. I advise 1/3 real estate to hedge inflation, 1/3 stocks for growth and 1/3 fixed pensions. This will allow people to defer some excess spending from their stock market investments in "down" years while avoiding holding bonds altogether.
If you're lucky enough to have a final salary pension, then yes then can be great! Otherwise, annuity rates are very poor right now!
@@JamesShack think the way US and UK annuities are built with high Bond inputs are much to blame for the very low returns. I got 11.5% in 2021. Yes, its certainly lower than the stock market - but I'm not complaining at all.
@@meibing4912 Wow, yes clearly the products do very different things. In the UK an annuity buys you a fixed income, or one that increase with inflation, in return for a lump sum of capital. Rate at the moments can be as bad as 2-3%, and that's fixed for life.
Great video, saw it recommended on Twitter by the pension twitterati I follow. I have read Abraham’s book about the 4% rule so had heard about guardrail approach before. Saving hard to be in a position to explore my options in 3 years time at age 55! also interesting to see you drop bonds early in the case study, I had this discussion with Abraham on Twitter a while back - bonds just don’t seem to make sense to me as an investment at the moment…
Oh really, that’s great. Can you link me to the Twitter post?
Amazing videos, I will keep sharing them!
Great explanation - thank you! What do you think of the idea of long, low-rate fixed mortgages, never paid off unless the rates balloon, as a means of reducing the tax burden on drawdown in the upper rate tax band? The theory is that if you owe, say £100k, and you draw down additional income to repay the capital, then the marginal drawings to repay it will have cost you £167k, so you’ll have paid £67k in tax to repay the capital. When you die inheritance tax on the increased estate value will take another £40k, so you’ll pay an additional £107k in tax. By not repaying it you’ll reduce the drawdown load on you pension at the cost of the risk of rising interest rates, which you can always hedge against by securing long fixes when available, and if the numbers stop working you can still change tack and repay the debt.
If you’re over the residential nil rate band, or you know you want to downsize at some point in the future anyway it may be a good way to access capital tied up in your home.
You do need to be comfortable with the fact that you are levering up to keep more money invested in stocks. But like you say the longer you can fix it the less risk.
Great videos thank you.
I really want to finish work at 45 but I’m not sure how much I should have in my work pension pot at age 45 for it to look after itself and grow to a suitable amount by age 60. 😅
For example can I assume that it could grow by 5% average a year.
For example:
£350k pot at age 45 nothing else paid in until age 60 could grow to about £700k
Would would cover the gap between 45 and 60 with other money.
Some stocks aren't back to the Dotcom bubble levels, so some could definitely loose money in the market. It only gets worse with margin, as margin calls are real
Thanks James,
Another great video 👍🏽….
I TOTALLY agree with your comments about this “4%” rule!
Semper Fi!👍🏽🇺🇸
The best pension video I've ever seen.
Thank you!
Hi James, I am a new follower, and I like your data-based/psychology-based style. I decided to retire early (and often - I took a year off every five or six years to travel) very early in life because I met a guy who was dying of cancer when he was 64, just before traditional retirement age. Even though I was only 19 I thought to myself "sod that! I’m going to retire well before I die!" At about the same time I read an article called ‘the miracle of compound interest’ or something like that.
Well….I seem to be there! I have about £900K in my pension (I’m 53). Now I have discovered that I could fall foul of the lifetime allowance! I used to think the lifetime allowance was about how much money one puts INTO a pension but now I know (I think) that this is not the case. So a video about how to avoid any major tax penalties due to breaching this limit would be much appreciated.
Hi Warren, yes sure thing!
Look on the bright side, those of us likely to breach LTA limits are in a good financial position. As I understand it this isn't the bogeyman people make it out to be, it just means paying more tax on some of what you draw out of your pension. Provided that's the same or less than the tax breaks on paying in (which it will be if you're staying under 100K net to preserve the personal allowance) then I believe it's still a win.
@@owensmith7530 well Said Owen, there are plenty of situations when it makes sense to kept paying into a pension regardless of the LTA limit.
Another great informative video James, looking toward to your next one
Hi, really like your videos. 51 and looking to retire soon (ish). In this video you talk about the couple having £40k of costs. You then model drawing £40k from the pot. Surely the drawdown will be taxable so they will need to draw down in excess of £40k. Due to the 25% tax free and the fact the pot is split between them, £20k each, £5k tax free, £15 taxable, less allowance = not much tax. In my case the pot is in my name so a much bigger tax hit unless I can transfer half my pot to my wife or take her allowance.
Unfortunately you can’t. So yes it will be slightly tighter from a tax position.
Great video as always James
Thank you very much James - this is such an interesting and thought provoking video!
I'm still slightly(!) worried about what might happen if I was unlucky enough to retire during a period of high inflation and/or low growth. For example, during the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation peaked at around 25% and even if averaged over a 10 year period it was over 14%. Did Guyton's Guardrails hold up during this time? If so, what happened? Did stocks grow even more so that they compensated for the inflation rise?
You would only ever need to use guardrails if you happen to be really unlucky and get a bad sequence of returns right at the beginning or retirement. But yes the guardrails are there hold you in check whatever happens, but obviously the worse the markets get the bigger clip you'll have to take on retirement income.
James, do you think that this is better than Nick Murrays idea to go into retirement with 5 years of living expenses in cash. So if the market goes down you dip into your cash reserve.Also what do you think of the idea of spending down your capital to say the age of 90 but leave a seperate pot invested to either leave to your heirs or to be used if you survive that long. Are we all becoming obsessed with NOT spending our retirement pot. Jim
Most people are totally unrealistic about how much they should need for retirement. Never aim for a percentage of your salary but what you can reasonably live on, otherwise you'll work until you are 75.
Great presentation- thanks 🙏
I would like to propose a different approach to determine the drawdown rate.
I have tried to spreadsheet those Guyton's rules but the end results seems overcomplicated and it looks like those guardrail rules reduce the DD to below the poverty line. Maybe getting it wrong. It did show thought how badly can sequencing risk be.
Trying to think openly, I suggest to set the drawdown to an increasing fraction of the pension funds. So if I want funds to last 40 years, I would DD 1/40th of it the first year, 1/39th the second, and so on.
Simple. Spreadsheet seems to work well.
Any growth in the funds increases the following years DDs, and viceversa.
Works top down, gives how much you can DD for a given capital.
It also works bottom up. If you want to reach a given level of DD, you can work out how much savings you need.
Do you see any drawbacks?
The problem with the proportional strategies is that they don't match natural expenditure. You would also need a hell of a lot of money to do this strategy.
If you want to spend £50k per year, and you're drawing 1/40th you need to start with a £2m portfolio.
With such a low withdrawal rate it's highly likely that your yearly budget is going to keep increasing.
So you'd end up with the lowest spending budget at the start of retirement, and the highest at the end. No one wants that.
The main problem with these proportion based strategies is that they don't match natural expenditure. Your budget will jump around a lot with the markets, perhaps even 20% or 30% per year.
It's hard to plan life and holidays 12 or 18 months in advance if you don't know what your budget is going to be. Retirees like more certainty than that.
If you experience a poor sequence of returns, the least disruptive adjustments you can make is not to make inflationary upwards adjustments to your expenditure for a period of time. You barely notice the change from year to year and yet it adds up to a huge amount over the course of a lifetime.
It's best not to treat this as a science, it's something you should assess every year with a flexible framework around how you make decisions.
I would also start by asking "What do I want to spend?" rather than "What's the maximum income I can get?".
And another excellent video James 👍👌
James, such an interesting plan. I cant wait for the next one.
Thanks for watching Edmund!
Amazing thank you James. Would you recommend building up a cash position to draw down upon in bad years? Either could use it to avoid taking money out of stocks altogether on a bad year, or to partially supplement a reduced drawdown from stocks?
A cash buffer can help smooth out the bad years. So you draw less income when the market is down but you also eat into your cash buffer so make it less painful.
Thanks for the great video. I wasn't aware of Guard Railing. How does one go about setting up guardrails? What is the difference between guardrails and ratcheting?
It’s similar, take a look at the paper in the description.
Absolutely amazing as usual. Thanks.
You’re welcome!
Thank James, great video. Looking forward to your video on Guyton paper.
I’m struggling to understand the application of the Decision rules ‘Guardrails’.
Is this paper suggesting that the withdrawal rate is increased by CPI, Preservation Rule or Prosperity Rule? Or is the initial withdrawal $ amount being adjusted by the CPI, Preservation Rule or Prosperity Rule?
Great video James. Very useful. Thank you.
Glad it was helpful!
Hi there. Thank you for this. My first view of your videos. Very interesting. Does your scenario factor in that you might need to move into an aged care home?
Great video James! As insightful as ever!
You’re welcome!
Hi James, excellent video as always, thanks. Can you do a video on when is the best time in the year to draw down money from a pension. Eg is the stock market usually higher in a particular month, or is it random? Thanks
It’s random. Any patterns that may developed are quickly recognised and eroded away. As in, if people started noticing the market went up in Jan, they’d start buying more in Dec, which would push the market up so that it stopped going up in Jan!
Brilliant and thought provoking as ever, scary as well :-)
It would be useful to have shown the amount that you set for the lower bound on the guardrails and been clear on how many years that lower bound will be taken in order to get to 99%. It's one thing to to say "I want 40k but am willing to drop to 30k for a few years" but then to find that you can only draw the lower bound for 20 of the years in many of the scenarios would be a disappointment. Too much focus on the total and not enough on the annual spending. Can you fill in the full picture please?
Speaking of flexibility, you can retire overseas! Say you own [no mortgage] a property in Britain that is worth 250,000 pounds. If you sell it and move to Australia, you could probably buy at property worth at least AUS $ 500,000, probably more, depending on the exchange rate.
Unless you go and live in inner Sydney, you can get a nice house [detached] and a quarter acre in the South West of Australia, or the South East. [especially Tasmania].
What about the heat? Well, the UK and Europe is experiencing heat waves more often and more severe, so the heat shock would probably be less than you think. And as I said, your money will go much further in regional/country Australia, so you can afford to have heaps of solar power, insulation, air conditioners, and devise a micro-climate for your property with tress, shade-cloth, etc. And an air conditioned car.
Most are able to still receive their UK pension, and acquire at least some Australian pension, but obviously, these are means tested for assets and income. You place of residence [the family home, NOT an investment property] is free form the assets test, and so is your superannuation fund [while it is in accumulation mode, not drawing a pension from it].
Great video James helping to confirm all my plans! One question though: has anyone ever modelled a 3% or even 2% rule and if so how much does this de-risk any plan?
A lot, but then you’d just end up with even more money left over! 4% is too conservative.
Great video James, thanks for sharing!
You’re welcome, as always!
Really top advice, right up my street at present.
James, I’m really enjoying your vids. I am 31 and you are helping me navigate my retirement planning. Small question, how do I account for inflation? Ie- if I say I would like to recreate my current income for retirement how do I account for 30~yr inflation?
If your doing an excel model, just reduce the growth rates by 2-2.5%. 2.5% is a conservative estimate of inflation.
If you reduce the growth rates it keeps everything in todays money.
@@JamesShack that makes complete sense, thanks!
Brilliant video - thanks 😀
I'm retired at 51, but worked average 60 hour weeks from 20 to 40 and did some great investments. Why don't more work harder when they are younger? And why do I feel so humble now?
Great stuff, simply put!
Hi James, another great video, thanks.
I was hoping you might compare the historic rate of return from the stock market with returns from Buy To Let (capital and revenue). I have enough, perhaps, for a BTL on a 60% LTV mortgage, would it be simpler/safer to invest in a tracker fund?
Yes i'll have to do a big video on this as somepoint.
The practical aspect of the original 4% rule always baffled me, why would anyone fix their draw down rate at the very beginning of retirement based on 4% and NEVER adjusting it regardless of market conditions.
I actually thought at first that the 4% rule meant recalculating the amount every year to get a new 4% amount for that year.
I Love your videos I am 55 in 3 months I have a fair pension pot and I own a 2 properties without mortgages I live in one rent the other but I love my job and I don’t want to retire I work from home most of the time get 8 weeks paid leave a year a needs car full healthcare which as you get older becomes even more important! and the company pay £750 a month into my pension whatever I do so why would I retire😊
Loving what you do is the great advantage in personal finance. You just keep on doing it!
In the example where you first achieved 95% success rate, which included the state pension kicking in at 67 (but beforethr art time work), as the couple's original target was £40,000 annually for at least the first 20yrs, what was the ceiling and floor values that you calculated for them, could I ask please? Could it for example have dropped to as low as £20,000 total, which potentially could have not left them with enough to do much more than exist?
Thanks in advance, I'm really enjoying your content 😊
Well in 5% of the scenarios it failed. But the rest the minimum floor was £24k and the ceiling was £55k.
Good video James, but I do wish you would do one based on much more modest levels of income. Your example of a couple at 55 years old having assets worth £650k is a pipe dream for the average working couple. What advice would you offer a couple who had £100k at 55? or a couple in their 30s with a combined income of £50k?
Hi David, the principles are all the same. You just need to reduce the ratios. But yes will do in the future!
Excellent video, i love the way that you follow the peaks and troughs, it would have been great though to see what the actual estimated money taken out would have looked like. I,e on a bad year would 20k have been a realistic figure or maybe 30k? same for the peaks, maybe 50k ?.
Also how about having an emergency cash reserve of say 10k, so even with a bad year or two, your take home money would still be within the livable range.
Ah yes, this was the part I omitted. The worst case shortfall was £25k running for 15 years. But again that’s the worst possible scenario in the whole period.
Best case was £55k (it’s capped so can’t go higher than this) but most scenarios had a lot of money left over at the end.
In reality you can be even more tactical than this, especially if you’re disciplined or using an adviser. So you could have 3 years cash, much higher risk portfolio, but in some years take almost no income.
@@JamesShack Thats great. so on average they would have been taking out around what they budgeted for :)
@@JamesShack
Yes, My situation is a bit different from normal, as my wife is 14 years or so younger than me and i have a 4 year old son(i am 49). so I am in a sort of interesting position where there will be income into the household well past my retirement date, but I dont want to leave her/my son short at the end either. So a tricky one :)
Great video James. Do you ever factor in the go go/ slow go/ no go phases of retirement to decreasing income needed over time?
In a way, I try not ti be too prescriptive with these long term projections as it’s all so uncertain anyway. So keep it simple with things like reduced expenses at 75, or push this out to 80 if they’re healthy at 70.
But I do always factor in long term care. Which is super expensive.
Pension £300k - WHAT! Sole reason I can even think about retiring is owning a house in London (mortgage free) but my 'pension' is non-existent, be lucky if I had £100k in total but I'm still going to retire early, if things get tight sell the house. That's my plan. A lot of people my age have NO pension.
I am 54 and have a pot worth £550k but I don't feel confident enough to retire for several more years.
So using this strategy, and I know this is just an example, once you've got the £650k pensions and savings, you can retire if you're happy with an income between these particular guard rails for the rest of your life? What were the guard rail values in this case? 50k ceiling and 24k floor (I guess that would be a no holiday year)? Obviously I guess this presumes a fully paid off mortgage too ahead of time. Edit: I see it's £55k and £25k. Obviously if your cash buffer is full, there's no need to take the £55k either (i.e., a long run of good years), so you can then follow a 'middle rail' of £40k if you don't want to have a splash out year.
Yes. The sequence of returns are so important. If you have a good first 5 years, you're away. But if it goes against you, that's when you need to adjust.
Please, please cover NHS pensions. Have no idea where my £££ is going and for what purpose... All i know is, I'm allegedly getting a good deal and it isnt the same as other pensions!
Interesting , i have £395,000 of private pensions all invested in the markets , i am 57 and would like to retire at 58 and could manage on an income of around £17 k , realistic following these principles ?
I never hear anyone mention the option of spending all the money. The 4% rule is based on never spending the principal. What is the actual point in that? If I have 300k when I'm 70 and I spend 15k every year + my state pension. And when I'm 90 (if alive) I have nothing. Why is that such a problem? Its like everyone wants to be the richest person in the grave yard.
Very true. But some people want to leave a legacy.
@@JamesShack Yes, I get that. Maybe if they donated to charity whilst alive & gifted to family too then they'd enjoy their legacy while alive. I think the larger sums in pots, the larger % money managers make. It's not within the industries interest to tell people to spend their money.
@@JamesShack Is the 4% ruled based on not spending the principle??? I thought it was based on spending the principle but not reducing it to zero?