Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions, no offense. I remember years back, amid covid-19 outbreak, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, thus researched for licensed advisors, and thankfully came across someone of excellence. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $350k to nearly $1m as of today.
True, I’m quite lucky exposed to personal finance at early age, started full time job 19, purchased first home 28, got laid-off work at 36 amid covid-outbreak, and at once consulted a well-qualified advisor to stay afloat. Thankfully, my portfolio has maintained steady growth ever since, amassing nearly $1m after subsequent investments to date.
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Jane Nina Pickett turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
Brent - a couple of things you can do to minimize reflections on your glasses : Try turning down your monitor brightness to the lowest level at which you can still read; buy a hood for your screen if its a desktop; angle your monitor slightly away from perpendicular ( or shift your viewing angle) ; use a matt i.e non shiny surface monitor ; . .. Best regards
Thank you for all of your work and the great information you provide. I'm retirement age and am taking management of my own retirement funds. It's a bit daunting, but leaving them in Bank or savings has not proven very profitable. I also have a shark mentality, keep moving...keep learning. I have learned so much in the last 2 years about investing, Options, and Crypto but still have mountains more to learn. It's not as daunting when I come across someone like you who is wanting to share your knowledge to help others and truly cares about bringing others along with you....... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 210k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Alison Bruce, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Brent, anyone predicting recession as imminent after the fed started raising rates is not looking at history. The history shows that recession is imminent after they've been cutting rates for a few months. Which is pretty intuitive, b/c the reasons why they raise and lower rates. They raise when economy is too hot or inflation is too hot. They cut when unemployment is rising, and economy is weakening. Unemployment spikes occur on the tail end, after the fed begins to cut rate. And unemployment spiking coincides with every recession we have on record. We have never seen unemployment get into an uptrend, (let alone a 2 year uptrend like we have now) , and it not result in a recession. Every time without fail. I am all for theorizing about hw this time could be different, but history suggests this time is likely the same.
It would be great if he had a couch in the background and Gus could take a nap on it. People would tune in either to hear the economic forecast or to see Gus peacfully sleeping on the couch. And some for both.
So, interest rates rise lowering the value of the bonds. The lowering of the value of the bonds means the people who believe the dollar collapse is imminent can reinforce their belief by confusing lowered value with sales.
how exactly does a Constitutional Republic work. my view is that just about any kind of political system inevitably gets corrupted because humans are inherently corruptable.
It should be noted on the foreign ownership of US Bonds that in Ireland's case the US bonds are owned mostly by US entities domiciled in Ireland for tax purposes i.e not the Irish central bank. I wonder if you were to look at the other foreign ownership would a similar pattern emerge particularly the UK. How much of these foreign holdings are actually owned by US companies and banks?
The FED keeping rates higher for longer probably delays any form of dedollarization, because no-one wants to sell their treasuries at a loss (the FED made them bagholders 😀). It is a risky game, because they can't know for sure how the corporate sector will react when they have to refinance (debt maturity wall) in the next few years at higher rates. Based on history, it will probably backfire at some level, when they realize they can't control everything (as usual).
Yep and everyone will default first before a world war. Then if and when china is ready to be a world leader they will a “win” a war and get their terms to have 2 world reserve currencies at one like 1921.
Great content! Very interesting from the start. These are challenging times and I appreciate the sensitivity with which you discuss global finance. Trading and investing are great ways to build wealth and I have no doubt about the profitability of the cryptocurrency market. Earning a weekly income of $35,000 even during a recession and high inflation is impressive. John Preston is doing a fantastic job and is the perfect person to lead these investment activities.
Primary Dealers are required to bid at Treasury auctions to maintain their relationship with the Federal Reserve. Note that banks are required to hold Treasury securities as part of their liquidity requirements.
100,000 subscribers by Christmas. No problem. Thanks for having a channel. It’s show-time for the milkshake theory to play out which will quickly give way to PMs. Your biggest fan here…
This is why I stopped listening to a lot of analyst out there, Brent is one of the only ones that presents things in a relative manner and understands how the system is set up. While most people only want to talk about the narrative and speak in hyperboles, which Brent doesn’t deny, he always mentions how this is a relative game and it’s happening around the world, not just the US!
I agree. I think Brent is one of the best voices out there and I've spent way too much time on this over the last 15 years. I would say Brent is "right" and a voice of absolute truth in a crowded scene where almost all voices have less truth in what they say, however, Brent fails to understand the role of petroleum. If you notice, he takes energy as a given economic input. This is the only, but fatal, flaw in his thinking. He says the crash isn't imminent and it could go on for years, no, it can't. Global petroleum production peaked in 2018 and we got the easy to get stuff first. This is the second half of the game and the rules will be very different.
Hi Brent! Might seems silly but you can tape a sheet of grease proof paper (I think you call it wax paper or baking paper in the US) over the light as a diffusor. Should help cut down on the reflections.
If light is from an overhead light, turn off and use back lighting with a lamp to your left and right. If light is coming directing towards you, set up a piece of card board or sheet in front of your desk to block the path or diffuse the light
Milkshake Theory = Dollar will rise or sustain its reserve currency status? This is nice marketing story, but it is nonsense. Each currency has multiple values based on what it is exchanged into. If you are referencing DXY as the US Dollar value you are comparing the USD to other paper currencies (which yes support massive debt & deficits and yes DXY will rise, it is the best house in bad neighborhood analogy, but misleading as a measure of value). When you exchange USD into commodities with limited supply and a demand over time you can identify true value. When you look at quote on Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Corn, Real Estate, etc we can start to identify true value. Many commodities may see short term swings in supply or demand which dramatically effect price relative to all currencies. That is why Gold has been considered money for over 2000 years. So true value of a currency is how many units (dollars, pounds, pesos) does it take to buy an ounce of GOLD. When the Milkshake Theory = "both the dollar will rise & Gold will rise" may have been true 200 yrs ago, but today it Is an oxymoron. In 1778 it took about $20 dollars to buy an ounce of gold, In 1920 it took about $20 to buy an ounce of gold. US debt to GDP was below 20% and dollars where exchangeable into gold. After WWII US paid down debt to GDP it took about $35 dollars to buy an ounce of gold, $39 dollars in 1970s..... still below 30% debt to GDP and until 1971 USDs were exchangeable into gold. After 1971 US dollar is only backed by the "full faith & CREDIT of the government" , history proves any rich person, company or government can see their credit worthiness fall as they increase the debt and liabilities on their balance sheet. 2024 the usdebtclock.org shows US debt to GDP is over 120% (over 35.8 Trillion debt, $2 Trillion deficit, + $200 Trillion in unfunded liabilities) the site & CBO all project much higher debt, deficits and liabilities by 2028 and beyond. Historically after wars, crisis a country runs up debt and it takes more units to buy the ounce of gold. Approximate USDs to aquire an oz of gold in; 2005 $500 oz, 2010 $1300 oz, 2021 $1800 oz, 2024 $2700 oz. In the 1800s the dollar was strong because it was exchangeable into gold. Today the USD is backed by a creditor that has borrowed so much money, they print to cover shortfall or deficits. Oz. of Gold has no liabilities, supply is limited, it can not be printed.
The large USD Treasury bonds held by Japan, China and other countries will likely be the major sources of funds to use to rescue their national debt repayments in 2025 ? For example, if a family has a lot of household debts, and why bother to keep the reserve savings when the debts are drowning the family's finances?
I love high rates! My savings make me easy safe income! Like Mike Norman notes: Raising rates adds income into the economy. Do supposed lower lending and borrowing due to higher rates offset this income? Doesnt seem like it, the stock market boomed during high rates. Countries with low rates have no inflation (eg Japan). While countries with high rates have big inflation (assorted latin american countries).
Charts sometimes lack resolution or legends. Makes it hard to comment. Chart at 29:23 is hard to read , including axis labels. I suppose I should take your word for it?
One mechanism was to periodically manufacture crisises/insecurity and that would be justification for everybody to run to the "safety" of treasuries. That rush would make treasuries rise. That is no longer happening.
At what point in time does the inevitable become the imminent? How many red flags (eg wars in ME and Ukraine, China's economic drama, major world commodity producers now trading outside the USD system, China's constant threat to take back Taiwan, USA's burgeoning debt issue with interest payments quickly rising to equal tax receipts, and the list goes on) does it take to get to the realisation that we are at imminent point?
Brent your theory was solid. But dollar holders didn't noticed they are screwed by the real negative interest rate. The perception of the powerfull economy and strong dollar relied completely that the dollar inflation wasn't above the interest rate in general. Which has nothing to do with the reality. Inflation is manipulated I really believe there's no insentive on holding dollars anymore. Look at the difference between gold appreciation and the interest. Everyone who thinks they are good with it should leave the scene of finance immediately. Unless that agenda is pushed maliciously on purpose.
The US Dollar is also going away the same way the British Sterling did after Breton Woods of 1944. USA will seat there and see it going and can't stop it, like the Brits in 1944 @ Breton Woods. Also thanks to USA from the signing by Japan onto the Plaza Accord in 1985, China now the major manufacturing in Asia
Bonds prices fell from 1940-80s as inflation trended higher. The C banks have tools for inflation. They have none for deflation. Deflation as defined as the destruction of money the value of that remaining currency worth more as is the debt. The Central banks found out last decade you can print the money, but you can't control it's direction a,k,a Velocity .Seems negative rates, wherein the holder of the bond pays to hold it is deflationary in nature.
I agree that the "collapse" of the dollar & debt has taken longer but the US didn't have any competitive/alternative financial systems the previous 2 - 3 decades. Yes, I'm going to say it. BRICS is developing alternative systems to the West. It'll take some time, but when they are up and running I expect 2/3rds of the world population will end up using it. The world is TIRED of being told what to do or else (regime chg / sanctions / military coups / bombing). There's been a dramatic change in the way other countries talk about the West just in the last few years. I give our system a decade but the migration away will be very evident before that.
Wait until the already ongoing collapse of the Chinese economy takes further off and getting increasingly worse … during your mentioned ‚next ten years‘. With Chinese economy crumbling the BRICS „currency“ will be gone. Maybe in 30 years India will become a comparable competitor to the USA as China seemed (it actually never was) but it doesn’t make sense to speculate about that
All that is just speculation, might happen, might not happen, what we know is that as dysfunctional the west is, all those other countries are even more dysfunctional and bigger messes. If what you're saying were true why is that the flows of money in the world go from all those countries that supposedly are going to take dow the US and the rest of the west, INTO the west? No one wants their money stuck in some ridiculous brics or brics-adjacent country, they want their money in the US and Europe.
LMAO! The demise of the dollar only requires lifelong enemies China and India to agree to work together. Also, only requires the world to have more faith in Putin and the mafia state of Russia as well as the theocracy of Iran OVER the United States and their military. GTFO with the BRICS pipe dream. In South Africa and Brazil we trust...
hi Brent, please keep your lights at 10 o'clock or 2 o'clock and preferably above your head ! Any lights within 11 -1 o'clock at your eye level is likely to reflect in your glasses... Thanks for your discipline to share your insights, much appreciated !
Before the BRICS Meeting , I commented on a dozen Financial Y-Tube Channels that the outcome of the OCT. Meeting will be a statement that say's "We are working on it! " and of course that was dismissed by many that wanted to believe the hype of a new BRICS Unit currency announcement going live statement to be released and it just didn't ring true with me and sure enough , they are still working out the details ! This will keep happening going into every BRICS Conference !
You need to make the glasses MORE reflective. You'll look like the hard core hacker able to control anything he wants with a keyboard. 'Yeeeees. Yeeees" click click click, '"I'm in!"
I have been trading 30Y bonds with one of the UST Primary Dealers since September 2003 >__< Banks make 0.5% for a purchase and 0.5% for a sell of 30Y bonds (Service Commission is still banks’ primary source of income, I think).
Well explained again! So holdings may/should show rising again if tresuties start increasing as a flight to safety assuming rates decline in the market
There are many layers of money. There is a layer we can see. There is a layer we can not see. And there is a layer deep down, only few people can see. What we see in media and graph, is only first layer.
But when interest rates go higher, the US deficit grows even more and even faster. And it grows exponentially. Because US public debt is already so big. If interest rate increases 1% US deficit increases with 1% of 35 trillion (whatever that is). Compounding the debt.
Would you please one day cover (if you have time and if you are interested in covering that topic) - How $ value is decided against other currencies. Like dollar to Riyal / rupee or Yuan etc. I understand one part is demand and supply. But If China demands more vs. Riyal or Rupee, Shouldn't it be more expensive for China? There has to be something. Thanks in advance.
The next big new tool could be CBDC. If Congress gave the Fed permission to create digital currency, they would have the ability to unilaterally create reserves AND currency. The new reserves would facilitate flow of CBDC through the financial system. CBDC would be programmable. Could be programmed to expire if not spent within a certain time period. It would create inflation without the US Treasury having to issue net new Treasuries to stoke stimulus/inflation. Stimulus could be funded by new CBDC without Congress having to fund through US Treasury issuance. US national debt growth slows AND we get inflation that reduces Debt to GDP ratio. Thoughts?
I was confused with your COT graphs because you kept saying the short positions got bigger, but you didn't identify what the pink and black lines represent.
angle the light from the side. The angle or incidence equals to the angle of reflection, or is the screen reflection. that's hard to fix. could get a polarizer on it.
There are so many things that i would like to discuss that i don't know where to start from... 1. Since those are charts of current US bonds values that don't represent buying and selling why in a free market economy we don't have a chart with the real amount of bond trade? Should this chart be relevant at all then and displayed as a proof of one view or another? And are these charts inflation adjusted as there is a big difference between having a record high debt held by foreign entities in nominal and inflation adjusted terms! At least inflation adjustment is a big deal to any other trade 2. The world today is nowhere near what it was 10 or even 5 years ago! All those economic "basics" that were used 10 years ago are simply irrelevant today for so ma y reasons! Just look at the price of gold and silver, the amount of bileteral trade deals and swaps carried out today and growing even though there is not a brics currency or exchange system currently at play yet. 3. Do you believe that without military dominance the US dollar would keep its global reserve status? Do you remember what happened to Saddam and Gadafi? Isn't it strange that those two were assassinated right after they wanted their oil traded in a gold backed currency? How about Syria, still occupied by the US who were NOT invited but yet there to exploit exactly the oil rich fields and not a single square meter out! 4. Do you think that blowing up Europe's cheap source of gas and forcing it into submission to buy YOUR LNG at quadriple the price will make the EU stronger economically so that it will continue to buy your goods at a higher price? Good luck! The EU will play servant for a while more, but with its biggest economy already shutting down manufacturing plants and already in recession the rest of Europe will follow suit! Good luck finding market for your manufacturing especially with the economic war with China expanding! If you think the US is a big enough market for all your production so that you can impose tariffs and live happily ever after, thin again! China and India are almost 10 times your market combine! Good luck competing with that
At 13’min you speak of what the treasury/ central bankers CAN do to force the uptake of treasuries. They are already doing it to Insurers and Reinsurers by applying 0% charge on gov bonds as investment for their regulatory capital and applying up to a 49% charge on other types of investments. In EU /UK under Solvency 2 it could even be more restrictive. Was a real issue for the market in 2012/13 with PIGS debt having no charge YET Apple shares or property carried hefty (49%) charge.
i was told most US eye glass does not have publish process because of the price. It is cheap to make a pair of eye glass with polish process cheap in asia.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions, no offense. I remember years back, amid covid-19 outbreak, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, thus researched for licensed advisors, and thankfully came across someone of excellence. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $350k to nearly $1m as of today.
True, I’m quite lucky exposed to personal finance at early age, started full time job 19, purchased first home 28, got laid-off work at 36 amid covid-outbreak, and at once consulted a well-qualified advisor to stay afloat. Thankfully, my portfolio has maintained steady growth ever since, amassing nearly $1m after subsequent investments to date.
this is great! think your advisor would get on the phone with an unknown? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I found her outstanding and excellent resume when I made a research of her full names online. I count it a gift that I went over this remark.
I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, Jane Nina Pickett turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.
Don’t waste much time worryingly about how you look to us. We’re here in gratitude because you are generous with your knowledge.
Brent - a couple of things you can do to minimize reflections on your glasses : Try turning down your monitor brightness to the lowest level at which you can still read; buy a hood for your screen if its a desktop; angle your monitor slightly away from perpendicular ( or shift your viewing angle) ; use a matt i.e non shiny surface monitor ; . .. Best regards
29:22 - 31:17 China not dumping treasuries. Its just the price.
Few understand this
Thank you for all of your work and the great information you provide. I'm retirement age and am taking management of my own retirement funds. It's a bit daunting, but leaving them in Bank or savings has not proven very profitable. I also have a shark mentality, keep moving...keep learning. I have learned so much in the last 2 years about investing, Options, and Crypto but still have mountains more to learn. It's not as daunting when I come across someone like you who is wanting to share your knowledge to help others and truly cares about bringing others along with you....... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 210k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Alison Bruce, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Alisonbruce… that’s her name on
TE LEGRAM…
Alison Bruce Crypto knowledge is like a secret recipe for success!
Mrs Bruce has delivered solutions above my expectations over a year we have worked together. I would refer her in all forms.
Spot-on, I would always rate her signals as one of the best ever used 100% accurate.
0:40 polarizing filter in front of camera. They can filter out reflections if they are oriented correctly.
Brent, anyone predicting recession as imminent after the fed started raising rates is not looking at history. The history shows that recession is imminent after they've been cutting rates for a few months. Which is pretty intuitive, b/c the reasons why they raise and lower rates. They raise when economy is too hot or inflation is too hot. They cut when unemployment is rising, and economy is weakening. Unemployment spikes occur on the tail end, after the fed begins to cut rate. And unemployment spiking coincides with every recession we have on record. We have never seen unemployment get into an uptrend, (let alone a 2 year uptrend like we have now) , and it not result in a recession. Every time without fail. I am all for theorizing about hw this time could be different, but history suggests this time is likely the same.
Buckle up, we are entering the liquidity crisis.
is Cayman Islands cover for Tether USDT on US treasury foreign holdings?
Your glasses look good on you. We are all accustomed to visually filtering out those reflections. And it is important to see clearly. Gus is too cute!
Maybe your dog Mr. Gus wanted to weigh in on the markets; I think Mr. Gus should be a regular on your show.
New mascot
Like to see a debate between, or maybe a YT channel co-hosted by Gus and Rudy, Maneco64's dog...
It would be great if he had a couch in the background
and Gus could take a nap on it.
People would tune in either to hear the economic forecast
or to see Gus peacfully sleeping on the couch.
And some for both.
So, interest rates rise lowering the value of the bonds.
The lowering of the value of the bonds means the people who believe the dollar collapse is imminent can reinforce their belief by confusing lowered value with sales.
This is one of the best most informative economic videos I have seen in a while!
The Constitutional framers were the smartest people to walk this planet. No two party system. Just a Constitutional Republic.
Thank you for typing that correctly and not typing that disgusting "D" word thrown around all the time
They didn't plan for infestation of dual citizens in Congress.
Didn't know that
how exactly does a Constitutional Republic work.
my view is that just about any kind of political system inevitably gets corrupted
because humans are inherently corruptable.
@mth469 "A Republic, not a Democracy." by Dan Smoot. A great 10 minute video.
It should be noted on the foreign ownership of US Bonds that in Ireland's case the US bonds are owned mostly by US entities domiciled in Ireland for tax purposes i.e not the Irish central bank. I wonder if you were to look at the other foreign ownership would a similar pattern emerge particularly the UK. How much of these foreign holdings are actually owned by US companies and banks?
The FED keeping rates higher for longer probably delays any form of dedollarization, because no-one wants to sell their treasuries at a loss (the FED made them bagholders 😀). It is a risky game, because they can't know for sure how the corporate sector will react when they have to refinance (debt maturity wall) in the next few years at higher rates. Based on history, it will probably backfire at some level, when they realize they can't control everything (as usual).
Yep and everyone will default first before a world war. Then if and when china is ready to be a world leader they will a “win” a war and get their terms to have 2 world reserve currencies at one like 1921.
you can raise the lighting above your eye level
Brett, use a light diffuser like photographers use. Ellimates glare.
Great content! Very interesting from the start. These are challenging times and I appreciate the sensitivity with which you discuss global finance. Trading and investing are great ways to build wealth and I have no doubt about the profitability of the cryptocurrency market. Earning a weekly income of $35,000 even during a recession and high inflation is impressive. John Preston is doing a fantastic job and is the perfect person to lead these investment activities.
Please how do I go about it, am still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profit?🙏
HE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH THE BELOW NAME.
@Coachpreston ⭐⭐⭐
Thanks for the information... I will contact him as soon as possible. I also want to gain good knowledge and stop losing...☺🙏👍
Bitcoin is going crazy these days but if you are smart you should know that it is the best exchange especially under the right guidances ..
Primary Dealers are required to bid at Treasury auctions to maintain their relationship with the Federal Reserve. Note that banks are required to hold Treasury securities as part of their liquidity requirements.
Thank you. Useful, well organized and delivered.
Gus is awesome.
100,000 subscribers by Christmas. No problem. Thanks for having a channel. It’s show-time for the milkshake theory to play out which will quickly give way to PMs. Your biggest fan here…
I didn't know you have your channel. Glad found you. subscribed.
In Gold we Trust!
Nah
Excellent reminder and breakdown of the arguments!
This is why I stopped listening to a lot of analyst out there, Brent is one of the only ones that presents things in a relative manner and understands how the system is set up. While most people only want to talk about the narrative and speak in hyperboles, which Brent doesn’t deny, he always mentions how this is a relative game and it’s happening around the world, not just the US!
I agree. I think Brent is one of the best voices out there and I've spent way too much time on this over the last 15 years. I would say Brent is "right" and a voice of absolute truth in a crowded scene where almost all voices have less truth in what they say, however, Brent fails to understand the role of petroleum. If you notice, he takes energy as a given economic input. This is the only, but fatal, flaw in his thinking.
He says the crash isn't imminent and it could go on for years, no, it can't.
Global petroleum production peaked in 2018 and we got the easy to get stuff first. This is the second half of the game and the rules will be very different.
Thank you Brent, great session.
Sure beats the madness of sunday news shows
Wow! This was such a good video!
Highly informative. Thanks for helping us understand the madness in monetary markets.
Thanks!
Hi Brent! Might seems silly but you can tape a sheet of grease proof paper (I think you call it wax paper or baking paper in the US) over the light as a diffusor. Should help cut down on the reflections.
come on dont worry milk shake bug ... dont wory about BRICS ...just keep stacking USD
If light is from an overhead light, turn off and use back lighting with a lamp to your left and right.
If light is coming directing towards you, set up a piece of card board or sheet in front of your desk to block the path or diffuse the light
Wow, that is a great point about not just UST that is not being bought!! Thanks Brent!
Milkshake Theory = Dollar will rise or sustain its reserve currency status? This is nice marketing story, but it is nonsense. Each currency has multiple values based on what it is exchanged into. If you are referencing DXY as the US Dollar value you are comparing the USD to other paper currencies (which yes support massive debt & deficits and yes DXY will rise, it is the best house in bad neighborhood analogy, but misleading as a measure of value). When you exchange USD into commodities with limited supply and a demand over time you can identify true value. When you look at quote on Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Corn, Real Estate, etc we can start to identify true value. Many commodities may see short term swings in supply or demand which dramatically effect price relative to all currencies. That is why Gold has been considered money for over 2000 years. So true value of a currency is how many units (dollars, pounds, pesos) does it take to buy an ounce of GOLD. When the Milkshake Theory = "both the dollar will rise & Gold will rise" may have been true 200 yrs ago, but today it Is an oxymoron. In 1778 it took about $20 dollars to buy an ounce of gold, In 1920 it took about $20 to buy an ounce of gold. US debt to GDP was below 20% and dollars where exchangeable into gold. After WWII US paid down debt to GDP it took about $35 dollars to buy an ounce of gold, $39 dollars in 1970s..... still below 30% debt to GDP and until 1971 USDs were exchangeable into gold. After 1971 US dollar is only backed by the "full faith & CREDIT of the government" , history proves any rich person, company or government can see their credit worthiness fall as they increase the debt and liabilities on their balance sheet. 2024 the usdebtclock.org shows US debt to GDP is over 120% (over 35.8 Trillion debt, $2 Trillion deficit, + $200 Trillion in unfunded liabilities) the site & CBO all project much higher debt, deficits and liabilities by 2028 and beyond. Historically after wars, crisis a country runs up debt and it takes more units to buy the ounce of gold. Approximate USDs to aquire an oz of gold in; 2005 $500 oz, 2010 $1300 oz, 2021 $1800 oz, 2024 $2700 oz. In the 1800s the dollar was strong because it was exchangeable into gold. Today the USD is backed by a creditor that has borrowed so much money, they print to cover shortfall or deficits. Oz. of Gold has no liabilities, supply is limited, it can not be printed.
One day I hope to find a woman who likes me as much as Brent loves the dollar. I like Brent but it's hilarious watching him defend the dollar.
The large USD Treasury bonds held by Japan, China and other countries will likely be the major sources of funds to use to rescue their national debt repayments in 2025 ?
For example, if a family has a lot of household debts, and why bother to keep the reserve savings when the debts are drowning the family's finances?
Brent, thank you for update on silver and gold for Commitment of trades. Great episode like always
Thanks as ever for the insight Brent. Have a great week!
Thank you, Brent ! I learned a lot from you and George from your recent interview with MacroVoices.
I'm headed out to fish on my kayak and relisten to both of those vids. Should be a great day!!
Me too ! 😂 The more I listen the more I learn.
I love high rates! My savings make me easy safe income! Like Mike Norman notes: Raising rates adds income into the economy. Do supposed lower lending and borrowing due to higher rates offset this income? Doesnt seem like it, the stock market boomed during high rates. Countries with low rates have no inflation (eg Japan). While countries with high rates have big inflation (assorted latin american countries).
Charts sometimes lack resolution or legends. Makes it hard to comment. Chart at 29:23 is hard to read , including axis labels. I suppose I should take your word for it?
Brent, my first comment for you is, thank you, I enjoy and appreciate your time; glasses are the last thing most would think about. :-)
"Why hasn't it ended yet?" TINA, literally There Is No Alternative to the US dollar in terms of volume.
Exactly, trade would have to nearly hault if another currency with less debt and reputation is used
There's plenty of yen, yuan out there, that argument is invalid
@therealscot2491 maybe in aggregate, but one currency fulfilling the same role at a similar volume as the $ does now?
One mechanism was to periodically manufacture crisises/insecurity and that would be justification for everybody to run to the "safety" of treasuries. That rush would make treasuries rise. That is no longer happening.
At what point in time does the inevitable become the imminent? How many red flags (eg wars in ME and Ukraine, China's economic drama, major world commodity producers now trading outside the USD system, China's constant threat to take back Taiwan, USA's burgeoning debt issue with interest payments quickly rising to equal tax receipts, and the list goes on) does it take to get to the realisation that we are at imminent point?
Thanks mate please keep up the commitment of traders updates
was watching that interview .... you're not doing much interviews nowadays
Awesome...
Thanks for clearing that up.
Mark to market value of the treasury holdings is dropping.
Brent your theory was solid. But dollar holders didn't noticed they are screwed by the real negative interest rate. The perception of the powerfull economy and strong dollar relied completely that the dollar inflation wasn't above the interest rate in general. Which has nothing to do with the reality. Inflation is manipulated I really believe there's no insentive on holding dollars anymore. Look at the difference between gold appreciation and the interest. Everyone who thinks they are good with it should leave the scene of finance immediately. Unless that agenda is pushed maliciously on purpose.
Change the angle of your camera to fix the light reflection problem
Thanks for talking about China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury. Very helpful.
Love the mascot, Gus.
Thanks for the great analysis, I will consider your considerations
You're awesome Brent
The US Dollar is also going away the same way the British Sterling did after Breton Woods of 1944.
USA will seat there and see it going and can't stop it, like the Brits in 1944 @ Breton Woods.
Also thanks to USA from the signing by Japan onto the Plaza Accord in 1985, China now the major manufacturing in Asia
Love Gus! And love your specs! I consider eyeglasses to be a miracle, and you should never be hassled over wearing them! 💯
Bonds prices fell from 1940-80s as inflation trended higher. The C banks have tools for inflation. They have none for deflation. Deflation as defined as the destruction of money the value of that remaining currency worth more as is the debt. The Central banks found out last decade you can print the money, but you can't control it's direction a,k,a Velocity .Seems negative rates, wherein the holder of the bond pays to hold it is deflationary in nature.
The DOOOOGGGGG!!!! Reflection is no issue for me anyway..love coming here and learning this stuff!
"Its a relative game" -Brent Johnson
"Compared to what?" -Jason Hartman
And even
"All things considered" -BBC 😂
These guys get it
China have big unrealized loss on their UST holding, they might not sell much but i doubt they buy to replace maturing one .
They dropped $50 billion when we accrued the interest on Russia frozen assets😊
I agree that the "collapse" of the dollar & debt has taken longer but the US didn't have any competitive/alternative financial systems the previous 2 - 3 decades. Yes, I'm going to say it. BRICS is developing alternative systems to the West. It'll take some time, but when they are up and running I expect 2/3rds of the world population will end up using it. The world is TIRED of being told what to do or else (regime chg / sanctions / military coups / bombing). There's been a dramatic change in the way other countries talk about the West just in the last few years. I give our system a decade but the migration away will be very evident before that.
Wait until the already ongoing collapse of the Chinese economy takes further off and getting increasingly worse … during your mentioned ‚next ten years‘. With Chinese economy crumbling the BRICS „currency“ will be gone.
Maybe in 30 years India will become a comparable competitor to the USA as China seemed (it actually never was) but it doesn’t make sense to speculate about that
What advantage do you expect the BRICS nations will have over the dollar-backed system?
All that is just speculation, might happen, might not happen, what we know is that as dysfunctional the west is, all those other countries are even more dysfunctional and bigger messes. If what you're saying were true why is that the flows of money in the world go from all those countries that supposedly are going to take dow the US and the rest of the west, INTO the west? No one wants their money stuck in some ridiculous brics or brics-adjacent country, they want their money in the US and Europe.
LMAO! The demise of the dollar only requires lifelong enemies China and India to agree to work together. Also, only requires the world to have more faith in Putin and the mafia state of Russia as well as the theocracy of Iran OVER the United States and their military. GTFO with the BRICS pipe dream. In South Africa and Brazil we trust...
When did this channel go online?!
Hi Bret, you’ll need anti-reflective lenses to prevent your glasses from reflecting light.
Brent forgets that the music always stops eventually. No way it’s infinite.
hi Brent, please keep your lights at 10 o'clock or 2 o'clock and preferably above your head !
Any lights within 11 -1 o'clock at your eye level is likely to reflect in your glasses...
Thanks for your discipline to share your insights, much appreciated !
Before the BRICS Meeting , I commented on a dozen Financial Y-Tube Channels that the outcome of the OCT. Meeting will be a statement that say's "We are working on it! " and of course that was dismissed by many that wanted to believe the hype of a new BRICS Unit currency announcement going live statement to be released and it just didn't ring true with me and sure enough , they are still working out the details ! This will keep happening going into every BRICS Conference !
I didnt know you ad a Milkshake Pod?!?
Wish you and Jeff Snider would combine forces to expand the Eurodollar University.
You need to make the glasses MORE reflective. You'll look like the hard core hacker able to control anything he wants with a keyboard. 'Yeeeees. Yeeees" click click click, '"I'm in!"
🤣🤣🤣
U gotta to find some screen filter to reduce the light source from the monitor
I have been trading 30Y bonds with one of the UST Primary Dealers since September 2003 >__< Banks make 0.5% for a purchase and 0.5% for a sell of 30Y bonds (Service Commission is still banks’ primary source of income, I think).
Well explained again! So holdings may/should show rising again if tresuties start increasing as a flight to safety assuming rates decline in the market
Thanks for the talk
There are many layers of money. There is a layer we can see. There is a layer we can not see. And there is a layer deep down, only few people can see. What we see in media and graph, is only first layer.
But when interest rates go higher, the US deficit grows even more and even faster. And it grows exponentially. Because US public debt is already so big.
If interest rate increases 1% US deficit increases with 1% of 35 trillion (whatever that is). Compounding the debt.
Would you please one day cover (if you have time and if you are interested in covering that topic) - How $ value is decided against other currencies. Like dollar to Riyal / rupee or Yuan etc. I understand one part is demand and supply. But If China demands more vs. Riyal or Rupee, Shouldn't it be more expensive for China? There has to be something. Thanks in advance.
The Yuan would depreciate against the Rupee. That's how it gets more expensive. Because you would need more and more Yuan to exchange for Rupee.
The next big new tool could be CBDC. If Congress gave the Fed permission to create digital currency, they would have the ability to unilaterally create reserves AND currency. The new reserves would facilitate flow of CBDC through the financial system. CBDC would be programmable. Could be programmed to expire if not spent within a certain time period. It would create inflation without the US Treasury having to issue net new Treasuries to stoke stimulus/inflation. Stimulus could be funded by new CBDC without Congress having to fund through US Treasury issuance. US national debt growth slows AND we get inflation that reduces Debt to GDP ratio. Thoughts?
Absolutely excellent episode
Great show
I was confused with your COT graphs because you kept saying the short positions got bigger, but you didn't identify what the pink and black lines represent.
Excellent! Thank you.
angle the light from the side. The angle or incidence equals to the angle of reflection, or is the screen reflection. that's hard to fix. could get a polarizer on it.
There are so many things that i would like to discuss that i don't know where to start from...
1. Since those are charts of current US bonds values that don't represent buying and selling why in a free market economy we don't have a chart with the real amount of bond trade? Should this chart be relevant at all then and displayed as a proof of one view or another? And are these charts inflation adjusted as there is a big difference between having a record high debt held by foreign entities in nominal and inflation adjusted terms! At least inflation adjustment is a big deal to any other trade
2. The world today is nowhere near what it was 10 or even 5 years ago! All those economic "basics" that were used 10 years ago are simply irrelevant today for so ma y reasons! Just look at the price of gold and silver, the amount of bileteral trade deals and swaps carried out today and growing even though there is not a brics currency or exchange system currently at play yet.
3. Do you believe that without military dominance the US dollar would keep its global reserve status? Do you remember what happened to Saddam and Gadafi? Isn't it strange that those two were assassinated right after they wanted their oil traded in a gold backed currency? How about Syria, still occupied by the US who were NOT invited but yet there to exploit exactly the oil rich fields and not a single square meter out!
4. Do you think that blowing up Europe's cheap source of gas and forcing it into submission to buy YOUR LNG at quadriple the price will make the EU stronger economically so that it will continue to buy your goods at a higher price? Good luck! The EU will play servant for a while more, but with its biggest economy already shutting down manufacturing plants and already in recession the rest of Europe will follow suit! Good luck finding market for your manufacturing especially with the economic war with China expanding! If you think the US is a big enough market for all your production so that you can impose tariffs and live happily ever after, thin again! China and India are almost 10 times your market combine! Good luck competing with that
At 13’min you speak of what the treasury/ central bankers CAN do to force the uptake of treasuries. They are already doing it to Insurers and Reinsurers by applying 0% charge on gov bonds as investment for their regulatory capital and applying up to a 49% charge on other types of investments. In EU /UK under Solvency 2 it could even be more restrictive. Was a real issue for the market in 2012/13 with PIGS debt having no charge YET Apple shares or property carried hefty (49%) charge.
Very informative. Thank you.
Very insightful, please tell Greg we said hi
Great stuff, thanks again!
As a reired Professional Photograper...they make non-reflective coating for most glasses, but $$$
We have to get you stacking silver Brent, not buying paper.
i was told most US eye glass does not have publish process because of the price. It is cheap to make a pair of eye glass with polish process cheap in asia.
The Sunday reality check. If investors buy more US- Bonds because higher interest rates, wouldn't they increase the bond-prices by doing so?
Thank you for the information. Blessings 🙏🏾
Watch what happens to treasuries in the next dump. People will be scooping up 2yr like crazy.
Treasury bonds can be loaded onto the Fed balance sheets as before if no buyers.
Subscribed. Thanks!
A lot of grew up in the 70’s . The wheel keeps spinning.
Gus doesn’t have any of these ‘vanity issues’ with mirroring glasses 😂😂😂
The primary dealer argument was rather silly. Its circular logic and speaks nothing about function.
Where is my stapler?
The UK and Cayman will be the active buyers !
Interesting and different perspective from much of what we here.