@@yellowfolder thanks and the result of starting the analysis about 7pm and finishing starting the upload at 5am :) Net result no fancy B roll ! That said hope the spreadsheet and the commentary get the discussions going as I always enjoy that bit.
Thanks for dropping by. I was listening to you with Matt Fox last night when was doing some of the analysis. As you may recall, I have featured him in previous editions. He seems confident "yet again" of also finally breaking 2:20 in Chicago so will be watching that with interest.
Did both @aubreyrunning and Thomas gave out their Garmin watches to Chris coz both have close finishing. I watched your video, insightful, you had decent prediction. PR for Robb was off, Kofuzi and Thomas you were close, and so were some of the other runners. Good job on what you put up. @robb, don't take it personally, dude. You ran an amazing run
@@immortal7007 Aubrey & Thomas ran together the whole way so hence the same times. Good job there but my “guess” was assuming they were running solo as it were. Otherwise yeah like to think I was generally in the ballpark.
@@TimGrose aubrey smashed your prediction. TBH, he did way better than I thought he would too. First time doing a marathon is always kinda hard to guess
I had quite a few goes at that bit trying to get over the light hearted side of some of this stuff. Yeah it is going to be a good morning's viewing and tracking for sure. Are any of your coaching clients running?
@@TheFODRunner will have to see about doing one for Chicago. One of my friends who has done all of the majors thinks, with good weather, Chicago can be the fastest of all of them.
Thanks. Nearly all of us are "slow" compared to the likes of Nick Bester and Phily Bowden! Otherwise yeah like to think there was a good range of ability levels here which is reflective of running UA-camrs in general of course.
@@SagasuRunning this was very rushed. I finished it at 5am but only really started the bulk of the analysis at about 7pm. Crash training in running terms. Think you are right that the format for each runner isn’t too bad and I did not try and spend too long on any one runner. With more time would have liked to done a summary and dive in say pace of long runs for different ability levels. I have a feeling better runners speed up on race day and slower ones often inevitably can’t match their training speed as not conditioned to the full distance. How the Pro 4 does will be interesting too. Especially does it work for everybody well if they actually try although how race shoes perform not really racing is always a strong, if sometimes puzzling, theme in some shoe reviews.
@@TimGrose Inlike this format and the video moved well. Definitely riff on this format for future ones like this. Now they some of the hype is dying down on the AP4 it will be interesting to get actually reviews of the shoe and also see how it wears over time. Really looking forward to the long term reviews on the AP4.
Yeah will do. Note to self don’t do too many all nighters though. Hope the AP4 won’t be a shoe we are “bored” of before it even comes out. Can see why adidas did this for Berlin but ones like the Saucony Elite 2 and this where it is glimpsed for a tiny window with an actual release miles in the distance just make me look to what have got and often those ones we seem to like more than others if you know what I mean !
@@TimGrose Addias is ALWAYS going to do a big release at Berlin…. Always. I am growing tired of these early releases when the shoe actually releases 4-6 months later. Showing of next year shoes at TRE is one thing… but the World Athletic regulations are forcing all sorts of odd things…
@@SagasuRunning yeah good point about Berlin and perhaps also helps it starts the autumn marathon season. AFAIK it is only for the Olympics and Worlds that you cat't wear "development" shoes and so not ones yet on sale to the public in any way. So I wonder if they are actually selling any in Berlin. The Saucony Elite 2 seemed very odd - almost if they had to "hand make" a few pairs for the Olympics but the tooling was not fully there for a release? I see the OG Elite is back on sale at full price. Who is going to pay all that when a new version is sort of in the warehouse. Very odd marketing. Maybe you should do a comment video on the practice. Presume are some "reasons" other than sure World Athletics rules as ones like say the NOVABLAST have had 100 mile reviews before have been on an sale at all.
The forecast looks really good for tomorrow, I've run it twice and cooked there twice because of the relatively late start. With 14c forecasted I could see Nick Bester pull off the sub 2.20
I guess they're all out on the course as I type this and will soon be furiously editing race vlogs with their massage boots on. Thanks for the very thoughtful commentary and for all the effort that went into putting this together, even if you say that you didn't have as much time as you'd have liked. I'm looking forward to seeing how the races played out.
Looks like everybody featured has now finished. Some very good runs and indeed in a few cases better than I thought - Bester will obviously be delighted with a 2:19:45 and so he should, big breakthrough for Phily Bowden with a 2:25:47 and Aubrey have to admit surprised me with a very very respectable debut (for anybody) 4:25:06. Otherwise a few cases where lack of enough marathon training this time made for a harder day than previous races. But all in some good running for sure. Anything else you observed?
@@TimGrose Yes, sub 2:20 for Nick, he'll be pleased with that. And life in Flagstaff with Molly Seidel's team obviously agrees with Phily. Big props to Aubrey for exceeding most expectatoins, and I see that Thomas from Believe in the Run finished with the same time so credit to him as well for the pacing job. Also, Kofuzi and Matt B finished 8 seconds apart on both clock and chip times, so they probably spent some time running together. Not sure about Ko but I think Matt will be OK with 3:13.
@@largeeddie I did hear subsequent to this video that Kofuzi was trying for sub 3:10 but he started a bit slower (1:36:57 HM) and seemed to be running with Drew Whitcomb for a while. So was there or thereabouts and clearly not an "A" race for him. About what I expected for Matt and a solid run for sure.
Another great “Runners & Riders” analysis. Was expected a Paid for Promotion with a Betting company. Brilliant Tim and hope your recovery is going well. 👏👏
Thanks for dropping by and true to my word of featuring you. Have to be honest and only "remembered" you in the small hours and had to "pivot" a bit with my model for the others with all the walking you do. When I was at my worst in the summer I also did a lot of walking and felt it helped to at least help "remember" how to move especially as was otherwise either doing nothing for a while and then cycling on Zwift so interesting you do a bit of cycling and even "IRL" at times. Good luck tomorrow. I wasn't quite sure if this a full on sub 3 attempt (or at least PB one) or whether you feel aren't quite there? I had that same issue when we met at London in 2021 and realised I had to lower my sights and "get round" as well as possible. I doubt I even get round at all right now short of a very long hobble.
@PoetWithPace in real life. Yeah a mileage of combined run/walk/bike is meaningless. Well done today BTW. Hope it won’t be your last proper marathon go as think the sub 3 still in there. That said not sure I could do another one. Need to get my Achilles area better before can race again regardless.
@@TimGrose hope your Achilles heal up soon! I spent too much time weaving around people for first half of race, which didn’t help. I will have a few more goes for fun, not sure about any more sub 3 attempts as training has never gone well past few years. Some interesting predictions from one commenter saying I wouldn’t even run a 3:30?!? 🤪
@@amandawalker4510 yeah surely it will be on some live stream (need to check where) and will have live tracking of course anyway which will need for those featured in this video
Such an interesting perspective. Marathon training, preparation and racing is fascinating, because for most it is pushing to the limit and so much being fortunate on the day. Interesting observation on Bester, for me it is all about individual physiology and tailoring training to that. I could not take any high mileage so relied totally on intensity, multiple hill sessions and pray ! It worked once (2:19:56) and for all the others the wheels came off at 17-19 miles ! I could run a decent 1500m to 1/2m. My own feeling is to be able to run a sub 2:20 you have to be capable of a sub 50 minute 10 miles and 66 minute half.
Ah that must be very satisfying in hindsight and sure Nick would want to have done the same. I was really an 800/1500 runner and only really dabbled in marathons when I stopped being able to break 2 one season when was 36. I did my PB 2:33:53 2 years later back in 2005. I felt what I was most lacking was "endurance" as obviously that MP was "easy" - well for a while so I did lots of time on feet long runs plus lots of 10-13 mile MP runs. Back then I did not really know about doing MP intervals within a long run as is the vogue these days although that always seems very demanding anyway especially if do it every week. Interestingly Nick did do a 66 HM in 2022 - the year he did his 2:20:08 PB. Will see tomorrow if he can also do that "worked once" performance.
Pretty close on a lot of these. Impressive considering you’re doing it without much info on sicknesses, injuries, etc. I was impressed by Aubrey and Matt’s performances in particular because they executed exactly according to their plans.
Thanks for dropping by and well done! Yeah some of these runners I feel I know a lot better than others and obviously Nick Bester was going for a sub 2:20. I didn't actually give a prediction for him but thought he might just fall short but equally knew he had a chance so that was a sort of toss of the coin prediction of whether he would do it or not. Great he did. With you and say Kofuzi I wasn't sure if you would be going for a time or going a bit more within yourself. I later heard Kofuzi was going for a sub 3:10 so would likely have estimated that and been quite close anyway. Yes in a way Aubrey surprised me the most as I thought it likely the distance would get to him but no it was very solid pacing and expertly done by Thomas who I also had some doubts as to whether would need to slow down at some point. Matt B did well but I did recall some of his other recent marathons were around that time so hence that estimate. With you it was largely based on what you did in London with a bit taken off based on your recent lowish 4 week mileage on Strava.
@@TimGrose I got Covid 4 weeks ago so that changed my whole last month of training. Not sure it was the primary limiting factor in my performance though.
@@Drew.Whitcomb ah that won't have helped for sure! You did very well then to do what you did. When I had it felt like I had never run before on my first run back. Took a few months not weeks to start feeling myself again.
I always look forward to your analysis before a major marathon ... VERY interesting!!! My very first ever marathon (with 450m gain) I ran exactly 4h30, and my stats were certainly worse than Aubrey's then! On the other hand I'm much much older (did my first at 59) so I have more determination to keep suffering perhaps!😆😁 Mind you I suppose having a popular youtube channel would add quite a bit of pressure his determination, so we'll see!🤷♀ My heart is really out for Nick, he has been soooo close to that 2h20 and soooo disappointed in the past, but as you say maybe he's crammed a bit too much into too short a time!!! GO GO NICK!!!💪🏃💪 THANKS Tim!!!
@@bev9708 should be flatter on Sunday LOL but the distance catches up with everybody if go out too boldly. Wow that’s an impressive debut age. I haven’t quite made 59 myself yet (am 57 going on 58 in Nov). I can barely run at all at moment so certainly a lot of envy seeing everybody preparing in their own race for the race.
Indeed. Have to admit I had my doubts but an excellently executed race leaving something in the tank for late on (I see his 30-35 5K was his fastest) where it really counts.
This was actually pretty entertaining, even with the underhanded side comments :) You should do a follow-up one though, I think people would enjoy it. Also, next time just DM and ask me what prediction my Coros says, it was way closer than yours 😂
@@robbereddinger1128 thanks for watching. I like to try and inject a little “humour” along with the spreadsheets :) You did a lot better than I predicted so well done but like to think was fairly close otherwise. I shall ask next time and/or watch your stuff more closer for clues ! Are you all at Chicago? Could well be my next one of these. Look forward to hearing more about how you all found the Adios Pro 4.
@@TimGrose All good, if I were running for fun then 3:50 is about correct. Even with ~45-50/week of marathon training, on a good day with good conditions and adequate sleep I'm able to run a bit faster than my "on paper" training would suggest. I will be running Chicago, but leading an unofficial 4-hour pace group, so you can put me down for a 3:59, haha. (FWIW Coros had my marathon prediction at 3:23:39, my actual time for the 26.2 mile distance was 3:23:54, so pretty spot on.)
Another top level analysis Tim! I hope one day I will be included in one of these videos if I ever throw myself back into a road marathon. Let's see how everyone gets on. 😎🤘
I bet you would enjoy it for something different Ben!!! Though I guess it would be hard to fit it in your schedule ... now that I run mostly 45k-50k trails, it's soooo hard to fit a marathon in!!!
@@BenNotley it will be very interesting now to see what you could do. Haven’t you been sub 4 off road to get going in a few ultras. Stephen Cousins Film my Run good example of somebody who can do well in both ultras and road marathons. Still you might need more time on flatter towpaths and far far more goal pace work at a faster pace than a single goal.
I guess Ben could run the odd marathon as a training run knowing he needs to back off goal pace bit after halfway as got an ultra in a few weeks time. You could also save the risk of getting your ultra shoes ruined if there is any mud on heels risk.
I also think Kofuzi will exceed your prediction, based on the training I have seen him do, it closely mirrors mine. And given his previous history, I suspect he will come in low 3hrs or better. But the kicker will be, if he focuses 100% on the race or just influences it up all weekend. Which is pretty much the problem for all of them....with maybe the exception on Nick B and Philly, they seem focused and intend to get help with producing their content or making the content secondary for this race. Wishing everyone a great race!
@@timtrenholm3698 I really wasn’t sure if he is going to try in this one. Maybe I haven’t been following his vids too closely recently but usually before a marathon I hear a lot of talk about it and have heard nothing on this. These days he always does a good base of miles but seem to recall him saying his heart had gone out of chasing times. So my estimate was more based on a guess he won’t be trying too hard.
These pre race analyses are always great to listen to, especially when you give your honest views about the runners training. With Nick he seems to have gone for the more quality and faster paces to make marathon pace feel easier approach. But he has done decent mileage, so it might work. I seem to recall Matt adopting a similar approach a couple of years ago and only getting specific around 5 weeks out or so: it didn’t work for him, but you never know with Nick, different runners respond to different approaches. On his shoe choice, if he runs in the Pro4 then I can only assume he’s done that to keep Adidas happy as this shoe is clearly far more marketable to a wider market than the Evo.
@@josephgonzalez_ maybe it just makes me tired reading it as back to back 100 mile weeks with a race on a lot of the weeks certainly shows massive commitment and drive and hard to think of a more positive attitude to it - at least in public. I do contrast it with Phil Sesemann in my last one however who did not race at all but could argue the end result wasn’t perhaps as good as I thought might have been a possibility. Think with Nick may depend if can stay in a group long enough to smell the finish. He seemed to have isolated a bit too early in most of his recent marathons then I feel at his level it becomes a very tough ask. Re shoes I don’t think he is on the must wear Pro 4 influencer list and maybe he wonders if the Evo 1 are somehow not to his liking but otherwise it would appear odd to race in the second tier shoe for sure.
@@TimGrose I’m going to predict Nick scrapes in under 2:20! Could also completely blow up! I’ve opted to not buy the Evos after all. Just can’t justify the cost in my head.
@@josephgonzalez_ I did enter the draw :) Sue has had delivery of a new phone and shoes "as instructed" so feel I might get away with it! I like your prediction tactics. Whatever he does, you can I say told you so. One thing is for sure is that he will give it his best shot and increasingly that is not happening in these events and maybe that is starting to irritate some of us.
@@briantimson1397 yes indeed will be good to see how everybody does. Seems more runners in this I feel I “know” than for a good while outside a London marathon. Aubrey certainly brings a whole new dimension to the space and he is getting very good at it. His actual running is coming along well too.
NB hasn’t a hope in hell of running sub 2:20. He hasn’t even run under 31 for 10k and 69 for a half. Even his 3k time is decidedly average . 2:26 I’d he’s fortunate. Great analysis Tim - keeping doing this style it’s great ❤
Agree that the lack of those markers does not bode well. That said he has done 2:20-2:22 in I think nearly all of his most recent marathons and he has certainly been training hard of late and does not appear to be massively off where has been in some of them so will see. He certainly seems confident to say he is going for it.
@@tazzer6959 yes, I did acknowledge I got it very wrong . Mind you my running career was scattered with doubters I could do x,y or z but still did. Chapeau to Nick 😊
Great breakdown Tim....Will be interesting to see how accurate the crystal ball is!....Hope you're doing a follow up with looking at the actual results..... Great Vid!
@@TimGrose yes, NB 2:19:45 and Philly Bowden sub 2:26! Looks like BP is on for just under 3 and Unfortunately looks like Ben Felton who started to pick up a bit on Philly between 35 and 39 km has stopped at the 40km point??????
Could well be but I have never heard of him doing intervals and a little oddly what actually goes on at club nights never seems to get any airing on his channel. Maybe not everybody attending are budding UA-camrs!
As usual Tim, A very interesting post. Nick and Aubrey are probably the best influencer performance range marker you could have made . I will also be very interesting to see the results on Sunday. I was listening to a podcast from Stephen Scullion the other day where he was talking about the extra effort to make that different at elite level (not too dissimilair to the Sky Cycling team when that was around) .. and I did wonder , in a way does that exta effort also need to be applied at the bottom of the performance scale (the new runner , or the give it a go marathon runner) in their own way.. this kind of will touch on that possibly. With people like me ..' the median' just coasting at 80% to get our achievments completed (any harder and something goes pop).
I am almost certain Aubrey is not a full time UA-camr as he refers now and again to the day job. Even if he earns 10 times what I do on UA-cam (and our view counts aren’t in a different orbit) he could not even afford to look after himself net alone his full family. He has progressed from running only up to 10K and I did note he ran a 10K PB earlier these year. I think though it is clear he is more motivated by increasing his running related abilities and influence in more ways than just his personal performance as measured by a stopwatch.
Yes to be an elite you have to make more effort and of course hope got the genetic gifts to maximise that effort. Stephen himself think has struggled in recent times to put in the effort he knows he really needs to and he has the problem of having done it a long time and so improvements are harder to come by. At the other end of the scale I think it is the distance that is the thing to overcome especially if say a couch to 5K programme has been a difficult challenge. On the other hand newer runners should improve quickly lsrgejy whatever they do and in a way I miss the fact I just now seem to get ever slower whatever I do through advancing years. Still I can at least talk about what everyone else is doing !
Me love the spreadsheets! Fantastic work, you own this niche. Have you factored into your predictions who will be carrying selfie sticks and cameras!?! I expect you have an algorithm for it!
Thanks and good point. I did hear Nick Bester is not going to wear a headcam this time but may be passed one in the last 5K if he thinks won't impact his performance. Clearly then the wearing of a headcam could cost you 9 seconds over a marathon :) I do recall when I have pulled out my GoPro from my back pocket and muttered a few words about how I was doing, my HR went up 5 bpm. Indeed in Seville last year, I decided not to pull it out at all and good job as I recorded 2:59:52. One bit to camera and I could have ended up with a 3:00:00 Clearly prospective UA-camrs need to work on their arm strength to hold a GoPro for a long time or just be a lot fitter to offset these "obstacles" !
People need to really commit to running 75-90sec/km slower than their goal MP for anything they mark as easy/recovery. So many people live in the dreaded "grey zone". This is how I run 7days a week and still fit in 2 workouts a week and able to get in a long run that is flexible enough to be anything required as a 50yr old. As for the shoes, the AP V4 really seems more like a 3.5, and still have concerns with heel lift. But that Evo SL is going to be a MASSIVE hit....think Superblast popularity. I'm running Chicago in 2 weeks, and hoping to go sub 3:10 after I went 3:16:24 in May 2024 (with a 2min porta potty stop). I was also lucky enough to get into Boston 2025 with my 8:36min buffer, where I will hopefully do well enough to BQ at Boston (it's only a 7hr drive to Boston for me) and maybe I become one of those dirty streakers! Great analysis as always!
Yeah sure all runners have at times been guilty of going a bit faster than they should on easy days. Equally though when I look back at my best days I can point to some very hard training and perhaps a regret did not (or rather could not) put in the volume likes of Nick does. Last few years I thought I had also worked out this 50 something runner can tick along ok but has been frustrating this summer when could not. Need to go and analyse more what else I should be doing !
How can Aubrey be a running influencer with that little mileage in a marathon block? If someone told me they did that little I'd have doubts about completion. They'd likely be much quicker with a consistent 25-30mpw.
@@nath9091 I think just the word influencer is the key. It is giving out a feeling that you too could do a marathon and it is not all about elites or near elites running paces most of us can’t really even do for a sprint. From a shoe point of view there is often a lot of talk of whether a “Pro” shoe can work for anybody at any pace. Guess we will see on Sunday.
Love this content-do you get much feedback from these runners? I think Chris is out in Berlin more as a coach to some of his club runners and is now targeting Yorkshire marathon in Oct more. I feel like Fordy has done alot more in the gym and with the Physio in this block due to his injury in April which might not be detailed on Strava. I really really hope Bester breaks 2:20! Great critique-thx Tim
I see Nick Bester and Aubrey have already commented. Nick sometimes mentions some of my analysis on his Insta and I met him briefly in Seville last year. As you may recall I met with Aubrey in person for a run last summer when he had somewhat less subscribers than me. Largely what you see is what you get with him and I don't think that is always the case with some UA-camrs. I think he has pivoted slightly to more being the most UA-camr/influencer he can be rather than the best runner but, to a certain extent, one helps the other. I was on one of Fordy's earliest Friday live shows a few years ago. I have met briefly Donato at London Marathon few years and sure Ben Parkes knows who I am as has replied to many of my comments on his stuff. Fordy may surprise us tomorrow especially when I noticed one of his 20 mile long training runs was actually at a very similar pace to his PB but, as you say, I suspect he won't want to give it everything but got to think even 90-95% at Berlin could well end up a lot faster than 100% at Yorkshire.
@@TimGrose I feel like you need to re visit the Fordy Long Run show or the Monday one, I think you went to early in its evolution to get the best content value! Looking forward to seeing how your predictions for Berlin go tomoz!
@@alfdickinson1971 yeah wasn’t far out. Have to be honest and was doubtful Nick Bester would do a sub 2:20 but knew it was possible and indeed he delivered. Aubrey did a lot better than I thought he might.
@@PoetWithPace think we are a bit too old to be influencers like this :) Besides I am in no shape to even "try" in a parkrun right now net alone a marathon and I have no desire to just "get round".
I did follow a 20 week Garmin training workout, I have put myself a sub 2hrs goal. Went 1:53:07, more than pleased for now. My next goal will be 2025 Frankfurt Marathon.🙏
@@gabesaquatics8495 well done! Keep ticking over for the next month or so, maybe look to do a 5K and/or 10K race then start to thinking about marathon training.
@@TimGrose I did a 10k 6days after, started way too strong and melted down after 6k. Went on hero-mode just to finish it!🤦♂️(24 on first 5 and then 29 for the 2nd half). And want to thank you for your replies, it means alot, much appreciate it!🤝
@@gabesaquatics8495 ah! I did a 10K sort of like that earlier this year. Went off probably about 5K effort and the 2nd 5K well wasn't so good :) All good experience though and in the shorter events you can just have another a go a lot more easily sooner rather than later.
Love these videos, Tim, no one else does it. 💪 Do you happen to know what is going on with Patrick Martin from the YT channel @patrickmartinrunning? He used to run very fast, daily but since Aug he stopped posting both on Strava and YT. Hopefully he's taking a break from social media, and not from running.
Ironically his last recorded run on Strava back in August took down a long segment on the Downs Link I once held. I see some of the comments there www.strava.com/activities/12117208772 do seem to imply he is still injured but it does seem that he has stopped posting anything on Strava. I do often wonder how sustainable these endless 100 plus mile weeks are. I have only done so think twice ever and TBH felt exhausted and also it felt like I was running all the time - either doing so or trying to recover. His videos were usually based on a narrative of success for his age due to the hard work and mileage. If you can't actually do that any more what do you then do/say... I recall Seth James deMoor had similar issues at times.
@@TimGrose Thanks Tim. 100 mile weeks are extremely hard especially at his pace. He suffered the sacral joint injury and took time to rest. Anyway, I'm glad he's back. 🤘
My biggest dream is being featured in one of these videos Haha. But quite a way off Influencer Status right now:) Don' t really follow any of these too closely. But with Nick B you can' t help but notice he seems to be doing a very similar block every time. But it did get him within a few seconds of the elusive sub 2:20 once, so who knows if it will work someday.
@@robin29991 got any plans to do a marathon major anytime soon? If so may well catch my eye! Yeah very true if you can do 2:20:08 training a certain way you can certainly do 2:19:59 doing exactly the same with just a marginal gain on say pacing strategy, kit/shoes, weather, groups to run with and just feeling good. Sure we have all done races when have done better than thought and vice versa but without any massive differences in approach. How is your injury now? Bruised rib wasn’t it ?
@@TimGrose Hannover in April but no Majors. I spend the money on Shoes as you knoe haha. It' s been a very fast Marathon but won't be attracting too many Influencers I think:) Thanks for asking! Yeah, bruised rib from a fall on the Trails. Kept me more or less out for 4 weeks. But got much better now suddenly and actually strung together a decent training week now:)
@@robin29991 look forward to your Peg Plus review. If you can only run 6 miles in them due to a lot of "ground feel" and bottoming out I might need to unsubscribe :)
@@robin29991 I will certainly get you on before long. Does not always have to be a marathon but, in a way, the training is sort of simpler - largely need to run a lot! Well at least at our level.
@@ramore1000 do you think I should ? The actual results are of course easy enough to look up. Whatever I will certainly try and do a similar preview one for Chicago.
How about me Tim? I'm training for Valencia, maybe you can geek out on my training too, all on Strava or do I have to be an "influencer" to be on these vids 😅 Enjoy your vids as always
Happy to feature you in the future but not quite sure how to "find" you on Strava? A lot of this is having a reasonable understanding and knowledge of the runners in advance so when doing the spreadsheets it is largely putting on the detail of what I might have imagined. E.g. no prizes for guessing Nick Bester does far more training miles than the others well with the possible exception, from time to time, of Ben Parkes.
Great summary Tim and you were not far off on a lot of them so well done. Philly Bowden smashed it in fairness to her and so did Nick Bester. Like you I have found the Adidas pro good for training but I never raced in them. Find them a bit clunky for all out racing and still prefer the Vaporfly and now the asics metaspeed too.
@@davidleonard37 yeah thanks. I recall I forecast 2:28:00 for Phily but said she could do a lot better and she did. I did not give an actual estimate for Nick but thought he might just miss 2:20. As it was he just made so in time terms I was at least close ! Think in future I will give an estimate for everybody. I guess there is an element that if an athlete says they are going for a certain time then I ought to at least say if I think they will or not! Further Aubrey was perhaps the one who surprised me the most although I was sort of right that he had no target other than to finish.
yeah TBF I thought he might just come up short but of course wished he would not. 2:19:45 is some run and negative split too when it looked like was dropping off. He seemed to lay down a really quick 5K 30-35K and then held on. Look forward to his analysis and video. Suspect he will be "pleased" :)
@@yianpap6093 It is a good distance that you can race often if you want to and I typically found I could run a decent one off marathon training. Not so much vice versa. Guess will see tomorrow.
Not sure why you are always so soft with Aubrey, he has been running roughly the same time as me, around 2 years. But has had little to no consistency for someone who is supposed to be a shoe reviewer. His block just shows what he is, an Influencer first, a runner second. He barely does 20ks in most shoes he posts about claiming it's the best of this or that, basically either following what others have said or he is hoping to work with the brand more. He will get round, which was his goal, but he spent as much time running as he did with clever edits on his video he could be on for a sub 4.
I thought I was going reasonably "hard" on everybody else I feel there is little point in doing something like this as it my personal opinion, coupled with my own experience, in what they have done at the level they are at and probably how it would have compared to what I might have done especially when I was at least "somewhere" near the ability level of Nick Bester and Ben Parkes. I think with Aubrey he has fairly clearly stated (or at least implied) that he is trying to be the best UA-camr/influencer he can and not necessarily the best runner full stop. I guess the question is ultimately does that help the brands he works with sell more product than perhaps more focusing on "better" runners who may or may not have the same personality - like it or not. I thought it was very noticeable that I saw no real "elite" athletes at these adidas marketing events in Berlin and that is despite them trying to sell a "Pro" shoe to us. Well you could argue the actual adidas Pros will opt for the Evo 1 anyway. I also think there is a vast percentage of runners for whom completing a marathon at any speed is a massive achievement and ultimately if shoes were only marketed to sub 3 runners like say racing flats used to be then they would not sell any and we could well have not had the explosion in shoe tech we have seen as the profit return would not have been so obvious. That all said if anybody can run a marathon to their true potential doing just 21 miles a week then I doubt we would find any.
Re "poser" I guess the question is do the likes of Aubrey help sell more product than those who are not "influenced" by this sort of marketing. Increasingly running related brands are seemingly more pinning their hopes on such people rather than elite athletes who have little or no social media presence.
@TimGrose I think there are some valid points there, maybe it was delivery (of very good well thought out content) seemed a little warmer to Aubrey then to some of the others maybe that's my own biased head making me feel that way. On the point of marketers going for influences rather than elites, I full understand, That's also some thing callum (tdp) has often spoken of, that for running and track and field in general to continue to move forward more elites should be doing more "socially" to show personality and who they are as people, if the sport is to continue to develop and harness attention.
Thanks for the summary as always! Helpful, insightful and motivating 🦁
Time to leave nothing out there! 🤞🏻🇩🇪🚀
@@justalilbester thanks for dropping by. One thing I am confident of - you will try hardest of all these featured here. Good luck !
@@justalilbester good luck in Berlin!!!
🎉🎉🎉🎉 Congrats!
@@justalilbester fantastic run Nick - 2:19:45. Have to admit was unsure but you got it done - amazing.
No--one does Tim Grose-style videos better than Tim Grose... which I guess isn't too surprising.
Yes he is getting a following!
agree - the best in the business
@@yellowfolder thanks and the result of starting the analysis about 7pm and finishing starting the upload at 5am :) Net result no fancy B roll ! That said hope the spreadsheet and the commentary get the discussions going as I always enjoy that bit.
These are some of my favorite type of videos you do .
Thanks for dropping by. I was listening to you with Matt Fox last night when was doing some of the analysis. As you may recall, I have featured him in previous editions. He seems confident "yet again" of also finally breaking 2:20 in Chicago so will be watching that with interest.
Good luck to all taking part. I wish you all nothing but great health and happiness through it.
And good luck to you! Hope Chris Beale gave you back your Garmin - just watched his video with your cameo :)
Did both @aubreyrunning and Thomas gave out their Garmin watches to Chris coz both have close finishing.
I watched your video, insightful, you had decent prediction. PR for Robb was off, Kofuzi and Thomas you were close, and so were some of the other runners.
Good job on what you put up.
@robb, don't take it personally, dude. You ran an amazing run
@@immortal7007 Aubrey & Thomas ran together the whole way so hence the same times. Good job there but my “guess” was assuming they were running solo as it were. Otherwise yeah like to think I was generally in the ballpark.
@@TimGrose aubrey smashed your prediction. TBH, he did way better than I thought he would too. First time doing a marathon is always kinda hard to guess
That intro 😂 really enjoyable video as always, I’ll be trying to track all of these on the day 🎉
I had quite a few goes at that bit trying to get over the light hearted side of some of this stuff. Yeah it is going to be a good morning's viewing and tracking for sure. Are any of your coaching clients running?
@@TimGrose no not at Berlin, I have 3 at Chicago though in 2 weeks!
@@TheFODRunner will have to see about doing one for Chicago. One of my friends who has done all of the majors thinks, with good weather, Chicago can be the fastest of all of them.
Always enjoy these deep dives - thanks for putting the time into them, Tim!
@@IRunDaily bit of an all nighter this one but got to seize the moment !
Always enjoy these summaries, as a slower runner i'm always glad you include some slower people too. Great 2:25:47 by philly bowden.
Thanks. Nearly all of us are "slow" compared to the likes of Nick Bester and Phily Bowden! Otherwise yeah like to think there was a good range of ability levels here which is reflective of running UA-camrs in general of course.
Great analysis once again. Looking forward to sunday and getting back to the sheet to recheck. Thanks.
Yes indeed. I think I will be doing the same!
I'm glad to see this posted, well done. Love this new spreadsheet format. Great insights all around. Well done as always.
@@SagasuRunning this was very rushed. I finished it at 5am but only really started the bulk of the analysis at about 7pm. Crash training in running terms. Think you are right that the format for each runner isn’t too bad and I did not try and spend too long on any one runner. With more time would have liked to done a summary and dive in say pace of long runs for different ability levels. I have a feeling better runners speed up on race day and slower ones often inevitably can’t match their training speed as not conditioned to the full distance. How the Pro 4 does will be interesting too. Especially does it work for everybody well if they actually try although how race shoes perform not really racing is always a strong, if sometimes puzzling, theme in some shoe reviews.
@@TimGrose Inlike this format and the video moved well. Definitely riff on this format for future ones like this.
Now they some of the hype is dying down on the AP4 it will be interesting to get actually reviews of the shoe and also see how it wears over time. Really looking forward to the long term reviews on the AP4.
Yeah will do. Note to self don’t do too many all nighters though. Hope the AP4 won’t be a shoe we are “bored” of before it even comes out. Can see why adidas did this for Berlin but ones like the Saucony Elite 2 and this where it is glimpsed for a tiny window with an actual release miles in the distance just make me look to what have got and often those ones we seem to like more than others if you know what I mean !
@@TimGrose Addias is ALWAYS going to do a big release at Berlin…. Always.
I am growing tired of these early releases when the shoe actually releases 4-6 months later. Showing of next year shoes at TRE is one thing… but the World Athletic regulations are forcing all sorts of odd things…
@@SagasuRunning yeah good point about Berlin and perhaps also helps it starts the autumn marathon season. AFAIK it is only for the Olympics and Worlds that you cat't wear "development" shoes and so not ones yet on sale to the public in any way. So I wonder if they are actually selling any in Berlin. The Saucony Elite 2 seemed very odd - almost if they had to "hand make" a few pairs for the Olympics but the tooling was not fully there for a release? I see the OG Elite is back on sale at full price. Who is going to pay all that when a new version is sort of in the warehouse. Very odd marketing. Maybe you should do a comment video on the practice. Presume are some "reasons" other than sure World Athletics rules as ones like say the NOVABLAST have had 100 mile reviews before have been on an sale at all.
The forecast looks really good for tomorrow, I've run it twice and cooked there twice because of the relatively late start. With 14c forecasted I could see Nick Bester pull off the sub 2.20
@@al_conroy yeah no doubt he is capable for sure and agree the weather looks good for a marathon as you say.
Awesome results so far for Nick Bester,Phillipa Bowden and Ben Johnson!👏Hope the others ran great too!👍
Yes very good runs from all of them. Aubrey had a very good debut 4:25. The others were more or less as I expected.
HEY TIM... did you see Nick's time?? ... 2:19:45!!!!!!!!!! 🥳🥳🎉🎉
@@bev9708 I did - yes fantastic run.
I guess they're all out on the course as I type this and will soon be furiously editing race vlogs with their massage boots on. Thanks for the very thoughtful commentary and for all the effort that went into putting this together, even if you say that you didn't have as much time as you'd have liked. I'm looking forward to seeing how the races played out.
Looks like everybody featured has now finished. Some very good runs and indeed in a few cases better than I thought - Bester will obviously be delighted with a 2:19:45 and so he should, big breakthrough for Phily Bowden with a 2:25:47 and Aubrey have to admit surprised me with a very very respectable debut (for anybody) 4:25:06. Otherwise a few cases where lack of enough marathon training this time made for a harder day than previous races. But all in some good running for sure. Anything else you observed?
@@TimGrose Yes, sub 2:20 for Nick, he'll be pleased with that. And life in Flagstaff with Molly Seidel's team obviously agrees with Phily. Big props to Aubrey for exceeding most expectatoins, and I see that Thomas from Believe in the Run finished with the same time so credit to him as well for the pacing job. Also, Kofuzi and Matt B finished 8 seconds apart on both clock and chip times, so they probably spent some time running together. Not sure about Ko but I think Matt will be OK with 3:13.
@@largeeddie I did hear subsequent to this video that Kofuzi was trying for sub 3:10 but he started a bit slower (1:36:57 HM) and seemed to be running with Drew Whitcomb for a while. So was there or thereabouts and clearly not an "A" race for him. About what I expected for Matt and a solid run for sure.
Another great “Runners & Riders” analysis. Was expected a Paid for Promotion with a Betting company. Brilliant Tim and hope your recovery is going well. 👏👏
Ha ha that made me laugh. Doing a bit of running again which is at least something.
Thank you for the insightful review Tim, which is greatly appreciated! 🏆
Thanks for dropping by and true to my word of featuring you. Have to be honest and only "remembered" you in the small hours and had to "pivot" a bit with my model for the others with all the walking you do. When I was at my worst in the summer I also did a lot of walking and felt it helped to at least help "remember" how to move especially as was otherwise either doing nothing for a while and then cycling on Zwift so interesting you do a bit of cycling and even "IRL" at times. Good luck tomorrow. I wasn't quite sure if this a full on sub 3 attempt (or at least PB one) or whether you feel aren't quite there? I had that same issue when we met at London in 2021 and realised I had to lower my sights and "get round" as well as possible. I doubt I even get round at all right now short of a very long hobble.
@@TimGrose IRL? Shame Strava doesn’t break down the walking as a lot of my walks involve stopping for breaks and enjoying the views 🤪
@PoetWithPace in real life. Yeah a mileage of combined run/walk/bike is meaningless. Well done today BTW. Hope it won’t be your last proper marathon go as think the sub 3 still in there. That said not sure I could do another one. Need to get my Achilles area better before can race again regardless.
@@TimGrose hope your Achilles heal up soon! I spent too much time weaving around people for first half of race, which didn’t help. I will have a few more goes for fun, not sure about any more sub 3 attempts as training has never gone well past few years. Some interesting predictions from one commenter saying I wouldn’t even run a 3:30?!? 🤪
@@TimGrose out of interest Tim did you delete any previous comments on here? If not, it would appear some have deleted their own comments?
Press conference from SCC is missing this year but Tim delivers again 🙌
Ha ha only just. I finished this at 5am this morning :)
Always love the analysis
Thanks !
Interesting insights as usual. Good onya Tim
@@benchandler3220 thanks !
“Too much boom shakala” 😂. That made my evening! Hope Nick gets his sub 2.20 tomorrow
Yes I certainly hope so as well but thought I would try and be "objective" in this. Maybe just then "Let's go" :)
Brilliant summary 👏 🎉 can't wait to watch it ❤
@@amandawalker4510 yeah surely it will be on some live stream (need to check where) and will have live tracking of course anyway which will need for those featured in this video
Such an interesting perspective. Marathon training, preparation and racing is fascinating, because for most it is pushing to the limit and so much being fortunate on the day. Interesting observation on Bester, for me it is all about individual physiology and tailoring training to that. I could not take any high mileage so relied totally on intensity, multiple hill sessions and pray ! It worked once (2:19:56) and for all the others the wheels came off at 17-19 miles ! I could run a decent 1500m to 1/2m. My own feeling is to be able to run a sub 2:20 you have to be capable of a sub 50 minute 10 miles and 66 minute half.
Ah that must be very satisfying in hindsight and sure Nick would want to have done the same. I was really an 800/1500 runner and only really dabbled in marathons when I stopped being able to break 2 one season when was 36. I did my PB 2:33:53 2 years later back in 2005. I felt what I was most lacking was "endurance" as obviously that MP was "easy" - well for a while so I did lots of time on feet long runs plus lots of 10-13 mile MP runs. Back then I did not really know about doing MP intervals within a long run as is the vogue these days although that always seems very demanding anyway especially if do it every week. Interestingly Nick did do a 66 HM in 2022 - the year he did his 2:20:08 PB. Will see tomorrow if he can also do that "worked once" performance.
Pretty close on a lot of these. Impressive considering you’re doing it without much info on sicknesses, injuries, etc.
I was impressed by Aubrey and Matt’s performances in particular because they executed exactly according to their plans.
Thanks for dropping by and well done! Yeah some of these runners I feel I know a lot better than others and obviously Nick Bester was going for a sub 2:20. I didn't actually give a prediction for him but thought he might just fall short but equally knew he had a chance so that was a sort of toss of the coin prediction of whether he would do it or not. Great he did. With you and say Kofuzi I wasn't sure if you would be going for a time or going a bit more within yourself. I later heard Kofuzi was going for a sub 3:10 so would likely have estimated that and been quite close anyway. Yes in a way Aubrey surprised me the most as I thought it likely the distance would get to him but no it was very solid pacing and expertly done by Thomas who I also had some doubts as to whether would need to slow down at some point. Matt B did well but I did recall some of his other recent marathons were around that time so hence that estimate. With you it was largely based on what you did in London with a bit taken off based on your recent lowish 4 week mileage on Strava.
@@TimGrose I got Covid 4 weeks ago so that changed my whole last month of training. Not sure it was the primary limiting factor in my performance though.
@@Drew.Whitcomb ah that won't have helped for sure! You did very well then to do what you did. When I had it felt like I had never run before on my first run back. Took a few months not weeks to start feeling myself again.
I always look forward to your analysis before a major marathon ... VERY interesting!!! My very first ever marathon (with 450m gain) I ran exactly 4h30, and my stats were certainly worse than Aubrey's then! On the other hand I'm much much older (did my first at 59) so I have more determination to keep suffering perhaps!😆😁 Mind you I suppose having a popular youtube channel would add quite a bit of pressure his determination, so we'll see!🤷♀ My heart is really out for Nick, he has been soooo close to that 2h20 and soooo disappointed in the past, but as you say maybe he's crammed a bit too much into too short a time!!! GO GO NICK!!!💪🏃💪 THANKS Tim!!!
@@bev9708 should be flatter on Sunday LOL but the distance catches up with everybody if go out too boldly. Wow that’s an impressive debut age. I haven’t quite made 59 myself yet (am 57 going on 58 in Nov). I can barely run at all at moment so certainly a lot of envy seeing everybody preparing in their own race for the race.
Love these videos Tim.
@@bigz1296 thanks, good to make them if this time was up all night so doing !
Nick did it! 🎉
Indeed. Have to admit I had my doubts but an excellently executed race leaving something in the tank for late on (I see his 30-35 5K was his fastest) where it really counts.
Top class as ever.
@@stevecolders thanks !
This was actually pretty entertaining, even with the underhanded side comments :) You should do a follow-up one though, I think people would enjoy it. Also, next time just DM and ask me what prediction my Coros says, it was way closer than yours 😂
@@robbereddinger1128 thanks for watching. I like to try and inject a little “humour” along with the spreadsheets :) You did a lot better than I predicted so well done but like to think was fairly close otherwise. I shall ask next time and/or watch your stuff more closer for clues ! Are you all at Chicago? Could well be my next one of these. Look forward to hearing more about how you all found the Adios Pro 4.
@@TimGrose All good, if I were running for fun then 3:50 is about correct. Even with ~45-50/week of marathon training, on a good day with good conditions and adequate sleep I'm able to run a bit faster than my "on paper" training would suggest. I will be running Chicago, but leading an unofficial 4-hour pace group, so you can put me down for a 3:59, haha. (FWIW Coros had my marathon prediction at 3:23:39, my actual time for the 26.2 mile distance was 3:23:54, so pretty spot on.)
Another top level analysis Tim! I hope one day I will be included in one of these videos if I ever throw myself back into a road marathon. Let's see how everyone gets on. 😎🤘
I bet you would enjoy it for something different Ben!!! Though I guess it would be hard to fit it in your schedule ... now that I run mostly 45k-50k trails, it's soooo hard to fit a marathon in!!!
@@BenNotley it will be very interesting now to see what you could do. Haven’t you been sub 4 off road to get going in a few ultras. Stephen Cousins Film my Run good example of somebody who can do well in both ultras and road marathons. Still you might need more time on flatter towpaths and far far more goal pace work at a faster pace than a single goal.
I guess Ben could run the odd marathon as a training run knowing he needs to back off goal pace bit after halfway as got an ultra in a few weeks time. You could also save the risk of getting your ultra shoes ruined if there is any mud on heels risk.
I also think Kofuzi will exceed your prediction, based on the training I have seen him do, it closely mirrors mine. And given his previous history, I suspect he will come in low 3hrs or better.
But the kicker will be, if he focuses 100% on the race or just influences it up all weekend. Which is pretty much the problem for all of them....with maybe the exception on Nick B and Philly, they seem focused and intend to get help with producing their content or making the content secondary for this race. Wishing everyone a great race!
@@timtrenholm3698 I really wasn’t sure if he is going to try in this one. Maybe I haven’t been following his vids too closely recently but usually before a marathon I hear a lot of talk about it and have heard nothing on this. These days he always does a good base of miles but seem to recall him saying his heart had gone out of chasing times. So my estimate was more based on a guess he won’t be trying too hard.
Love these vids.
Thanks appreciate that!
These pre race analyses are always great to listen to, especially when you give your honest views about the runners training.
With Nick he seems to have gone for the more quality and faster paces to make marathon pace feel easier approach. But he has done decent mileage, so it might work. I seem to recall Matt adopting a similar approach a couple of years ago and only getting specific around 5 weeks out or so: it didn’t work for him, but you never know with Nick, different runners respond to different approaches.
On his shoe choice, if he runs in the Pro4 then I can only assume he’s done that to keep Adidas happy as this shoe is clearly far more marketable to a wider market than the Evo.
@@josephgonzalez_ maybe it just makes me tired reading it as back to back 100 mile weeks with a race on a lot of the weeks certainly shows massive commitment and drive and hard to think of a more positive attitude to it - at least in public. I do contrast it with Phil Sesemann in my last one however who did not race at all but could argue the end result wasn’t perhaps as good as I thought might have been a possibility. Think with Nick may depend if can stay in a group long enough to smell the finish. He seemed to have isolated a bit too early in most of his recent marathons then I feel at his level it becomes a very tough ask. Re shoes I don’t think he is on the must wear Pro 4 influencer list and maybe he wonders if the Evo 1 are somehow not to his liking but otherwise it would appear odd to race in the second tier shoe for sure.
@@TimGrose I’m going to predict Nick scrapes in under 2:20! Could also completely blow up!
I’ve opted to not buy the Evos after all. Just can’t justify the cost in my head.
@@josephgonzalez_ I did enter the draw :) Sue has had delivery of a new phone and shoes "as instructed" so feel I might get away with it! I like your prediction tactics. Whatever he does, you can I say told you so. One thing is for sure is that he will give it his best shot and increasingly that is not happening in these events and maybe that is starting to irritate some of us.
@@TimGrose can’t be wrong 😂
Good luck to all the runners taking part. I am more on the Aubrey scale of things. Even if I could make that distance
@@briantimson1397 yes indeed will be good to see how everybody does. Seems more runners in this I feel I “know” than for a good while outside a London marathon. Aubrey certainly brings a whole new dimension to the space and he is getting very good at it. His actual running is coming along well too.
Absolutely love these Tim , keep them coming! I’d welcome your view on my training one day, I’m in Berlin myself PB chasing .
@@seanwarburton2664 good luck ! Please leave another comment after the race to let us know how it turned out.
These are so interesting!
@@BumbleNut59 thanks !
NB hasn’t a hope in hell of running sub 2:20. He hasn’t even run under 31 for 10k and 69 for a half. Even his 3k time is decidedly average . 2:26 I’d he’s fortunate. Great analysis Tim - keeping doing this style it’s great ❤
Agree that the lack of those markers does not bode well. That said he has done 2:20-2:22 in I think nearly all of his most recent marathons and he has certainly been training hard of late and does not appear to be massively off where has been in some of them so will see. He certainly seems confident to say he is going for it.
See he ran 2:19:45, so there is that…
@@tazzer6959 yes, I did acknowledge I got it very wrong . Mind you my running career was scattered with doubters I could do x,y or z but still did. Chapeau to Nick 😊
@@DavidBlack-ki5fcfair enough!
Ko is running, getting his 6th star.
Wow! What a massive achievement.. 👏
Ah good point. Just not sure if he is going for a time or just to enjoy the ride as it were.
Great breakdown Tim....Will be interesting to see how accurate the crystal ball is!....Hope you're doing a follow up with looking at the actual results..... Great Vid!
Thanks. Looking at the tracker things seem to be generally as expected so far.
@@TimGrose just following now...seems like you were spot on 👍
@@stuartwalker6786 looks like, at 40K, Bester will just do sub 2:20 which is great of course.
@@TimGrose yes, NB 2:19:45 and Philly Bowden sub 2:26! Looks like BP is on for just under 3 and Unfortunately looks like Ben Felton who started to pick up a bit on Philly between 35 and 39 km has stopped at the 40km point??????
@@stuartwalker6786 yeah amazing runs by the first two. I was wrong to doubt Bester this time.
FYI Tim, I believe that Fordy may do more than he let's on, with the club stuff etc
Could well be but I have never heard of him doing intervals and a little oddly what actually goes on at club nights never seems to get any airing on his channel. Maybe not everybody attending are budding UA-camrs!
As usual Tim, A very interesting post. Nick and Aubrey are probably the best influencer performance range marker you could have made . I will also be very interesting to see the results on Sunday. I was listening to a podcast from Stephen Scullion the other day where he was talking about the extra effort to make that different at elite level (not too dissimilair to the Sky Cycling team when that was around) .. and I did wonder , in a way does that exta effort also need to be applied at the bottom of the performance scale (the new runner , or the give it a go marathon runner) in their own way.. this kind of will touch on that possibly. With people like me ..' the median' just coasting at 80% to get our achievments completed (any harder and something goes pop).
I've been surprised Aubrey hasn't progressed further in his running since he went full time you tuber.
I am almost certain Aubrey is not a full time UA-camr as he refers now and again to the day job. Even if he earns 10 times what I do on UA-cam (and our view counts aren’t in a different orbit) he could not even afford to look after himself net alone his full family. He has progressed from running only up to 10K and I did note he ran a 10K PB earlier these year. I think though it is clear he is more motivated by increasing his running related abilities and influence in more ways than just his personal performance as measured by a stopwatch.
Yes to be an elite you have to make more effort and of course hope got the genetic gifts to maximise that effort. Stephen himself think has struggled in recent times to put in the effort he knows he really needs to and he has the problem of having done it a long time and so improvements are harder to come by. At the other end of the scale I think it is the distance that is the thing to overcome especially if say a couch to 5K programme has been a difficult challenge. On the other hand newer runners should improve quickly lsrgejy whatever they do and in a way I miss the fact I just now seem to get ever slower whatever I do through advancing years. Still I can at least talk about what everyone else is doing !
Me love the spreadsheets! Fantastic work, you own this niche. Have you factored into your predictions who will be carrying selfie sticks and cameras!?! I expect you have an algorithm for it!
Thanks and good point. I did hear Nick Bester is not going to wear a headcam this time but may be passed one in the last 5K if he thinks won't impact his performance. Clearly then the wearing of a headcam could cost you 9 seconds over a marathon :) I do recall when I have pulled out my GoPro from my back pocket and muttered a few words about how I was doing, my HR went up 5 bpm. Indeed in Seville last year, I decided not to pull it out at all and good job as I recorded 2:59:52. One bit to camera and I could have ended up with a 3:00:00 Clearly prospective UA-camrs need to work on their arm strength to hold a GoPro for a long time or just be a lot fitter to offset these "obstacles" !
I'm looking forward to see what french youtuber / elite runner "muss life" does in his first marathon.
Ah can’t say have heard of him. What is his real name to put in the tracker ?
I would love to see a youtuber marathon. That should be a thing. Your own little UA-cam league.
Interesting concept but I guess the mass nature of these big marathons is what being part of them provides good content.
People need to really commit to running 75-90sec/km slower than their goal MP for anything they mark as easy/recovery. So many people live in the dreaded "grey zone". This is how I run 7days a week and still fit in 2 workouts a week and able to get in a long run that is flexible enough to be anything required as a 50yr old.
As for the shoes, the AP V4 really seems more like a 3.5, and still have concerns with heel lift. But that Evo SL is going to be a MASSIVE hit....think Superblast popularity.
I'm running Chicago in 2 weeks, and hoping to go sub 3:10 after I went 3:16:24 in May 2024 (with a 2min porta potty stop). I was also lucky enough to get into Boston 2025 with my 8:36min buffer, where I will hopefully do well enough to BQ at Boston (it's only a 7hr drive to Boston for me) and maybe I become one of those dirty streakers!
Great analysis as always!
Yeah sure all runners have at times been guilty of going a bit faster than they should on easy days. Equally though when I look back at my best days I can point to some very hard training and perhaps a regret did not (or rather could not) put in the volume likes of Nick does. Last few years I thought I had also worked out this 50 something runner can tick along ok but has been frustrating this summer when could not. Need to go and analyse more what else I should be doing !
How can Aubrey be a running influencer with that little mileage in a marathon block? If someone told me they did that little I'd have doubts about completion. They'd likely be much quicker with a consistent 25-30mpw.
@@nath9091 I think just the word influencer is the key. It is giving out a feeling that you too could do a marathon and it is not all about elites or near elites running paces most of us can’t really even do for a sprint. From a shoe point of view there is often a lot of talk of whether a “Pro” shoe can work for anybody at any pace. Guess we will see on Sunday.
Love this content-do you get much feedback from these runners?
I think Chris is out in Berlin more as a coach to some of his club runners and is now targeting Yorkshire marathon in Oct more. I feel like Fordy has done alot more in the gym and with the Physio in this block due to his injury in April which might not be detailed on Strava.
I really really hope Bester breaks 2:20!
Great critique-thx Tim
I see Nick Bester and Aubrey have already commented. Nick sometimes mentions some of my analysis on his Insta and I met him briefly in Seville last year. As you may recall I met with Aubrey in person for a run last summer when he had somewhat less subscribers than me. Largely what you see is what you get with him and I don't think that is always the case with some UA-camrs. I think he has pivoted slightly to more being the most UA-camr/influencer he can be rather than the best runner but, to a certain extent, one helps the other. I was on one of Fordy's earliest Friday live shows a few years ago. I have met briefly Donato at London Marathon few years and sure Ben Parkes knows who I am as has replied to many of my comments on his stuff. Fordy may surprise us tomorrow especially when I noticed one of his 20 mile long training runs was actually at a very similar pace to his PB but, as you say, I suspect he won't want to give it everything but got to think even 90-95% at Berlin could well end up a lot faster than 100% at Yorkshire.
@@TimGrose I feel like you need to re visit the Fordy Long Run show or the Monday one, I think you went to early in its evolution to get the best content value!
Looking forward to seeing how your predictions for Berlin go tomoz!
@@alfdickinson1971 I do often watch at least some of both of them.
@@TimGrose wow you were bang on the money with most of your predictions! Like the Sam 'Ace' Rothstein of Strava lol V.Impressive
@@alfdickinson1971 yeah wasn’t far out. Have to be honest and was doubtful Nick Bester would do a sub 2:20 but knew it was possible and indeed he delivered. Aubrey did a lot better than I thought he might.
The devils in the details. Great work sir 👍🏽
yeah no prizes for B roll or fancy transitions in this but hopefully some useful insight.
@@TimGrose I don't need any of that. Analytics are the key 🗝
@@gw4550 and yeah about 4am last night, I decided nor did I :)
@@TimGrose 4am. Goodness me. Get some rest. Long run Sunday coming up
@@gw4550 had a nice Saturday replying to all these great comments and got in an hour run too. Look forward to following the race tomorrow.
well I believe Thomas from BITR is pacing for Aubrey .., we will see how it goes.
Good shout. According to the tracker they do indeed appear to be running together.
Why are Adidias not sending Tim to Berlin gratis, that’s what I wanna know
@@sharkeyboe probably good job TBH as I can only barely manage an hour long run and a bit laboured of late.
I wanna know that too!
@@PoetWithPace think we are a bit too old to be influencers like this :) Besides I am in no shape to even "try" in a parkrun right now net alone a marathon and I have no desire to just "get round".
@@TimGrose indeed each to their own. BTW i did have a good chat with an Adidas supplier who naturally was wearing the Pro 4
Great video, could have used such inputs 2 weeks ago when I did my 1st HM!🤦♂️😜
@@gabesaquatics8495 ah how did it go ?
I did follow a 20 week Garmin training workout, I have put myself a sub 2hrs goal. Went 1:53:07, more than pleased for now. My next goal will be 2025 Frankfurt Marathon.🙏
@@gabesaquatics8495 well done! Keep ticking over for the next month or so, maybe look to do a 5K and/or 10K race then start to thinking about marathon training.
@@TimGrose I did a 10k 6days after, started way too strong and melted down after 6k. Went on hero-mode just to finish it!🤦♂️(24 on first 5 and then 29 for the 2nd half).
And want to thank you for your replies, it means alot, much appreciate it!🤝
@@gabesaquatics8495 ah! I did a 10K sort of like that earlier this year. Went off probably about 5K effort and the 2nd 5K well wasn't so good :) All good experience though and in the shorter events you can just have another a go a lot more easily sooner rather than later.
Love these videos, Tim, no one else does it. 💪 Do you happen to know what is going on with Patrick Martin from the YT channel @patrickmartinrunning? He used to run very fast, daily but since Aug he stopped posting both on Strava and YT. Hopefully he's taking a break from social media, and not from running.
Ironically his last recorded run on Strava back in August took down a long segment on the Downs Link I once held. I see some of the comments there www.strava.com/activities/12117208772 do seem to imply he is still injured but it does seem that he has stopped posting anything on Strava. I do often wonder how sustainable these endless 100 plus mile weeks are. I have only done so think twice ever and TBH felt exhausted and also it felt like I was running all the time - either doing so or trying to recover. His videos were usually based on a narrative of success for his age due to the hard work and mileage. If you can't actually do that any more what do you then do/say... I recall Seth James deMoor had similar issues at times.
@@TimGrose Thanks Tim. 100 mile weeks are extremely hard especially at his pace. He suffered the sacral joint injury and took time to rest. Anyway, I'm glad he's back. 🤘
👏👏👏
Thanks!
My biggest dream is being featured in one of these videos Haha. But quite a way off Influencer Status right now:)
Don' t really follow any of these too closely. But with Nick B you can' t help but notice he seems to be doing a very similar block every time. But it did get him within a few seconds of the elusive sub 2:20 once, so who knows if it will work someday.
@@robin29991 got any plans to do a marathon major anytime soon? If so may well catch my eye! Yeah very true if you can do 2:20:08 training a certain way you can certainly do 2:19:59 doing exactly the same with just a marginal gain on say pacing strategy, kit/shoes, weather, groups to run with and just feeling good. Sure we have all done races when have done better than thought and vice versa but without any massive differences in approach. How is your injury now? Bruised rib wasn’t it ?
@@TimGrose Hannover in April but no Majors. I spend the money on Shoes as you knoe haha. It' s been a very fast Marathon but won't be attracting too many Influencers I think:)
Thanks for asking! Yeah, bruised rib from a fall on the Trails. Kept me more or less out for 4 weeks. But got much better now suddenly and actually strung together a decent training week now:)
@@robin29991 look forward to your Peg Plus review. If you can only run 6 miles in them due to a lot of "ground feel" and bottoming out I might need to unsubscribe :)
@@robin29991 I will certainly get you on before long. Does not always have to be a marathon but, in a way, the training is sort of simpler - largely need to run a lot! Well at least at our level.
interesting
Thanks for dropping by! Have a good one.
Are you going to do a follow up to this, with the actual results?
@@ramore1000 do you think I should ? The actual results are of course easy enough to look up. Whatever I will certainly try and do a similar preview one for Chicago.
Evo sl has my attention
Yeah looks interesting as a lightweight training shoe that is not super expensive for sure.
How about me Tim? I'm training for Valencia, maybe you can geek out on my training too, all on Strava or do I have to be an "influencer" to be on these vids 😅 Enjoy your vids as always
Happy to feature you in the future but not quite sure how to "find" you on Strava? A lot of this is having a reasonable understanding and knowledge of the runners in advance so when doing the spreadsheets it is largely putting on the detail of what I might have imagined. E.g. no prizes for guessing Nick Bester does far more training miles than the others well with the possible exception, from time to time, of Ben Parkes.
Thomas Neuberger was pacing Aubrey.
@@silvermandavid yes and very well. As it was my estimate for Thomas running his own race wasn’t too far off anyway.
Great summary Tim and you were not far off on a lot of them so well done. Philly Bowden smashed it in fairness to her and so did Nick Bester. Like you I have found the Adidas pro good for training but I never raced in them. Find them a bit clunky for all out racing and still prefer the Vaporfly and now the asics metaspeed too.
@@davidleonard37 yeah thanks. I recall I forecast 2:28:00 for Phily but said she could do a lot better and she did. I did not give an actual estimate for Nick but thought he might just miss 2:20. As it was he just made so in time terms I was at least close ! Think in future I will give an estimate for everybody. I guess there is an element that if an athlete says they are going for a certain time then I ought to at least say if I think they will or not! Further Aubrey was perhaps the one who surprised me the most although I was sort of right that he had no target other than to finish.
😂 shows how much I know ! NB did . I’ll shut up from now on 😮
yeah TBF I thought he might just come up short but of course wished he would not. 2:19:45 is some run and negative split too when it looked like was dropping off. He seemed to lay down a really quick 5K 30-35K and then held on. Look forward to his analysis and video. Suspect he will be "pleased" :)
I have similar thought about Nick. He went too much on 5k spree and instead he should do marathon pace more
@@lowzyyy guess will see tomorrow. Can’t argue with the effort for sure.
Perhaps he loves the 5K's more.
@@yianpap6093 It is a good distance that you can race often if you want to and I typically found I could run a decent one off marathon training. Not so much vice versa. Guess will see tomorrow.
@@TimGrose yes and he did it. BEAST
Morning
@@richardrendell9363 yes first winner !
Not sure why you are always so soft with Aubrey, he has been running roughly the same time as me, around 2 years. But has had little to no consistency for someone who is supposed to be a shoe reviewer.
His block just shows what he is, an Influencer first, a runner second. He barely does 20ks in most shoes he posts about claiming it's the best of this or that, basically either following what others have said or he is hoping to work with the brand more.
He will get round, which was his goal, but he spent as much time running as he did with clever edits on his video he could be on for a sub 4.
Bro he is a poser like most of the influencers.
@@lowzyyy that's why my favourite runner tubers are the ones who are runners first and do the tube to support their lives
I thought I was going reasonably "hard" on everybody else I feel there is little point in doing something like this as it my personal opinion, coupled with my own experience, in what they have done at the level they are at and probably how it would have compared to what I might have done especially when I was at least "somewhere" near the ability level of Nick Bester and Ben Parkes. I think with Aubrey he has fairly clearly stated (or at least implied) that he is trying to be the best UA-camr/influencer he can and not necessarily the best runner full stop. I guess the question is ultimately does that help the brands he works with sell more product than perhaps more focusing on "better" runners who may or may not have the same personality - like it or not. I thought it was very noticeable that I saw no real "elite" athletes at these adidas marketing events in Berlin and that is despite them trying to sell a "Pro" shoe to us. Well you could argue the actual adidas Pros will opt for the Evo 1 anyway. I also think there is a vast percentage of runners for whom completing a marathon at any speed is a massive achievement and ultimately if shoes were only marketed to sub 3 runners like say racing flats used to be then they would not sell any and we could well have not had the explosion in shoe tech we have seen as the profit return would not have been so obvious. That all said if anybody can run a marathon to their true potential doing just 21 miles a week then I doubt we would find any.
Re "poser" I guess the question is do the likes of Aubrey help sell more product than those who are not "influenced" by this sort of marketing. Increasingly running related brands are seemingly more pinning their hopes on such people rather than elite athletes who have little or no social media presence.
@TimGrose I think there are some valid points there, maybe it was delivery (of very good well thought out content) seemed a little warmer to Aubrey then to some of the others maybe that's my own biased head making me feel that way.
On the point of marketers going for influences rather than elites, I full understand, That's also some thing callum (tdp) has often spoken of, that for running and track and field in general to continue to move forward more elites should be doing more "socially" to show personality and who they are as people, if the sport is to continue to develop and harness attention.