Sgt. Flat you got this info well ahead of the major news outlets...youre on to something..be encouraged people dislike what they think is the "underdog"...exactly what you said 10 hours ago is being reported right now! Thank you!
Thank you for this video. I live in Central FL and recall the four back-to-back hurricanes we had in 2004 (I think) so will be thankful if this one stays out of FL.
Man with you and that APP, we no longer need services from professional meteorologists. I'm really glad you downloaded this application and shared your expertise. Stop trying to tell others what this storm will do, the prossesionals are having a hard enough time doing so.
Don't understand the NHC. Their latest track ignores the current GFS and ECMWF projections. What are they doing? It currently looks like the Carolinas will get landfall Monday evening. Things will change until then but that's the current outlook. Edit: Ventusky.com relies primarily on the GFS model.
NHC is located in Florida and not to sound like a dick but hurricane means more money for businesses even if the hurricane hits or not us as a current Floridian
Because Fox and this guy don't know shit.. These storms can change in an instant. Especially if they are being directed by man made means. GET OUT OF FLORIDA.. You have nothing to loose if you get out, you can always go back. BUT IF YOU DON"T GET OUT and you stay and this thing does hit you, you will most likely die.
Chill it's gonna trail along the east coast here and I'm a native Floridian whose been through Andrew and I'll tell you this Everyone is not gonna die just a lot of homes will be destroyed sadly
You need to look back to just a year ago when Matthew took that path! It was smaller and places along Fl east coast are STILL trying to rebuild and clean up! It passed 20 miles off the coast of Tybee Island in Savannah Ga as a cat 2 and we are still trying to clean up!! We had very significant damage!! Matthew hit next to Hilton Head Island Sc at a cat 1! They are still trying to get over it! Never mind the mess it caused in NC and Va!!! I get not trying to over dramatize something but do NOT just blow it off as no big deal!In 89 Hugo came by and slammed Chatleston , Ga had major damage then as well!You can't just blow it off as no big deal because that can cause more damage to lives! You can state facts of the what it can cause without dramatizing it!
Native Floridian living in Coastal NC. This is exactly what the winds are looking like it is going to be very similar to Matthew. Skirt the Florida east coast and will come up and hit SC/NC line
Either way, this storm is on its way to my home, I'm done reinforcing as much as I can, and I'm leaving, I'm not about to stick around and find out the wrong way that this was wrong
It's the strongest storm ever recoded in the Atlantic.......fear mongering most certainly in order. I pray the happy ending models hold up but always prepare for the worst. Godspeed Florida
Irma is so huge that even if it does not hit directly , it will cover a huge area with high winds and rain. Once it finally hits it should be a Cat 3 by then.
There is one nuclear power plant at the tip of Floridas coast ! We have to meditate and send calmness with the help of Ether (fifth element expansion of the sky) to calm down Irma and José and conduct them away from the coast. We have to help not only watch, people need help from us all.
Who are you????? What you are saying 100% contradicts what all of the meteorologist and moose channels and broadcasters and forecasters are saying. How can you say such things with such confidence knowing that people watch this channel?
AMERICABALLS OFSTEEL the weather station always lies about us getting hit. i remember they had a hurricane track where the hurricanes went into the gulf and turned ALL the way around and hit us and I was like wtf.....it didnt happen lol
Sgt. Flat, I feel for you. The anger in tje comments here. You should perhaps have made it clear that you personally weren't predicting anything but rather just reading from the most recent projection. I saw the change in the models independently from you by viewing the EMCWF, GFS, GEM and several others.
All these people hating on this app and the guy is right. Ive even been saying this about Irma that it will shift more east then what they expect. No doubt always take precaution but these storms usually at this time of year end up in SC, NC. I live in wilmington and Ive always kept a close eye on hurricanes and they always miss FL and skirt up the coast. (Meaning the eye hitting land)
When I run this same model I get her lingering over the Keys then on the 10th the eye wall brushes Miami and the eye stays just barely off shore then comes inland just below Myrtle Beach SC // until that FL front meets Irma we have NO CLUE where Irma is going,.
I hope you are right. It is my understanding the Euro models are more accurate over the last years. Time will tell. If you are right, I will eventually subscribe to your channel. Otherwise, I am preparing to evacuate in a few hours.
I like the app. I like the visuals . I live in Florida. If it scrapes along the coastline it damages the beaches, . Great surf for a while. This app and from aboout 3 days ago I predict a NY hit;. Its going NE. wait for it:)
Wonder why no one is talking about the simularities in this track to the great sea island storm of 1893 or 1896 in which the death toll was thousands for GA SC even though none of us were born yet obviously the track is very simular and it sounds like it must have been a cat 5 thanks for your channel, it seems to stay one step ahead
LOL @ way to sound sure of yourself Sarge ! It might Miss Florida but then again it might not , Oh wait a Minute , this is going to be a significant hurricane no doubt about it . . . . Last time I checked it already is a significant hurricane, the Islands are getting pounded with a light breeze clocked at close to 200 MPH in some spots , that is pretty significant . . . .Sure the model looks great though :)
This track is one of several possibilities, and for now, still everything is possible! Don´t rely on this forecast! Many forecast are showing still a dangerous 890hpa Hurricane directly over Florida...and even this forecast showing a 892hpa Hurricane heading north, the eye wall would be directly hitting Miami and all other big cities on the east coast with winds up to 250km/h.
Good luck. Irma is "trapped" by Katia (cat1 ) and followed by Jose ( still cat 1), no chances for the perfect storm ( thankfully) but many chances that will be stationary for longer on the same spot. Like Harvey was. :(
That 11 pm advisory says otherwise and the GFS is considered most accurate next to European models and everyday the storm prediction keeps shifting east
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION! everyone must STILL do and act as though they are going to get a direct hit. better to be safe than sorry. (Just like Sgt. Flat IS saying.)
Considering this storm is the size of our entire state of Florida even if the eye goes up the coast were still gonna get some nasty stuff. And the fact I live right there on the coast I'm still gonna say we need to worry ....
Being from Florida, I hope the model holds...but I also hope Irma isn't Hugo Revisited. As far as predicting it is concerned, that far out it's a tossup, there's no reason to think it's any more or less accurate than what the news media is saying.
He is not saying people should not prepare?! If anything this could be a little bit of hope. Anybody who uses this video as a guide on their preparation will get what they have coming. I would hope most will be smarter than that. Whether it does just skim the coast or not it's still something everybody should prepare for! Nobody can 100% predict where this monster will go?! Not even your local meteorologists. He is not messing with people's lives quit being so dramatic people holy sheeshus! People amaze me. BTW that is an amazing app! Awesome to look at all the details whether it's 100% accurate or not that is so amazing!
As she TEARS her way North. Tare is when you zero out a scale before weighing something. So, so many people don't know how to write or use proper words.
Staying off shore could be a WORST case scenario, because over the water it will continue to stay strong. . . My friend, you obviously have never lived through a Cat 5.
Actually, this would be one of the worst case scenarios. The eye wall is the strongest part of the Hurricane, and right now it has the left edge of eye wall riding the east coast of Florida (That includes Miami) and then making landfall in Georgia. The issue with that is Irma would still largely stay on water, and that Florida isn't very mountainous. That means she won't lose much strength while she's causing damage, which means she will last longer (all the way up to Georgia), which means she will cause more damage (as I just said), which means she will take more lives. Not good. What we want is for Irma to make a direct hit on the southern tip of Florida, then move up the center of the peninsula until it's fully finished. It will lose strength much quicker, plus the eye will take up a good portion of the width of the peninsula so Florida would be largely okay and Irma will be sapped of most hurricane force winds long before it hits any other states.
I'm on the east coast, and let me tell you buddy, we're gonna get fucked. I have to crowd in my bathroom with one dog, 2 chickens, 2 ducks, a rabbit, and 4 pet birds and another person. for hours or days. Really lookin foward to the smell.
I live in downtown Charleston how your basically saying it's hitting us but it's no big deal and not as bad as we think. I fucking cat 4 or 5 hitting Charleston sc that is already below sea level and floods badly when it just rains, what the hell man?
Where do you get your info,The Disney Channel? It is not forecasted to be as far off shore,as you showed. The other info does not match to what is going on in the upper atmosphere and the highs and steering currents. Get facts before you post
Wait.. He said GFS model. *Not from National Hurricane Center* maybe GFS info are wrong or inccorect The correct from National hurricane center. That hurricane will hit florida. REALLY HIT FLORIDA
No, it's not good news! I'm in the Carolinas and it is not good news! Forecasters say it will be a Cat 3 when it comes to the Carolinas. I've been thru 3 hurricanes while I lived in FL. In 2004, I went thru Frances and Jean (twice taking the eye - major damage to homes from these two hurricanes). The last one I went thru was Wilma in 2005 and as a Cat 2 hurricane it totaled my car and damaged some of the houses around me. I hunkered down and rode out all these hurricanes and they were one of the most scariest experiences in my life (especially Wilma). I hope for all Floridians and my family down there that the hurricane steers eastward and misses the state but the only good news would be if it totally went out to sea!
I think stating that there will be minimal effects from a storm like this is a bit irresponsible. These forecasts are nothing but educated guesses and can change at a moment's notice. This storm is big and very, very powerful so even if it skirts the coast you are going to see major damage.
This is not weather forecasting. This is simply saying what a weather model is telling you without regarding the actual driving forces in the atmosphere. First, you are using the model's surface output conditions which are simply extrapolated from above surface conditions using climatologically averaged conditions for the last two years. Furthermore, the GFS surface output usually verifies as trash under normal conditions and even worse under extreme conditions. This hurricane is not climatogically normal and the surface output is almost certainly garbage. Furthermore, weather models are heavily based on an atmosphere operating under climatological normals and therefore perform best when the atmosphere is operating in near normal conditions. Under extreme conditions, a forecaster must have an understanding of the atmospheric features at play and understand how the model is interpreting these conditions. For example, since yesterday I have noticed that the Bermuda High was being forced to retreat by this hurricane, which models at that time did not anticipate (that was why they showed the storm hitting South Florida or going in the Gulf of Mexico). Therefore, I and my colleagues realized that this storm could potentially turn northwards and spare Florida from the worst of the storm. Recent model runs have picked up on this idea as well and we will likely see a final landfall elsewhere in the Southeast which will ultimately be determined by the strength of a trough over the Mid-Atlantic and New England. I could explain more of what is going on here but I will refrain. What you are doing here is misleading, unprofessional, and potentially deadly.
i will be back on here to laugh at all you laughing at his video. this tracker is more accurate than the mainstream medias. i will be back..as i am in orlando, floroda right now, so i will tell you exactly what this will be for Florida. laugh it up now, than you will all just say " better safe than sorry" when you see he is correct.
Sgt. Flat you got this info well ahead of the major news outlets...youre on to something..be encouraged people dislike what they think is the "underdog"...exactly what you said 10 hours ago is being reported right now! Thank you!
Thank you for not scaring these people like the news want ..
Thank you for this video. I live in Central FL and recall the four back-to-back hurricanes we had in 2004 (I think) so will be thankful if this one stays out of FL.
Sgt, keep up the good work. You have the best vids on UA-cam regarding this topic.
thank you !!! you are really keeping us up to date thank you !!
I'm inclined to agree with you considering the strong jet stream we're experiencing. Prayers for all in the path of this monster. Good job man
Man with you and that APP, we no longer need services from professional meteorologists. I'm really glad you downloaded this application and shared your expertise.
Stop trying to tell others what this storm will do, the prossesionals are having a hard enough time doing so.
Don't understand the NHC. Their latest track ignores the current GFS and ECMWF projections. What are they doing? It currently looks like the Carolinas will get landfall Monday evening. Things will change until then but that's the current outlook.
Edit: Ventusky.com relies primarily on the GFS model.
NHC is located in Florida and not to sound like a dick but hurricane means more money for businesses even if the hurricane hits or not us as a current Floridian
haha so inaccurate
If wasn't enough having Irma there's also Jose !? Lol 😆
Fox 4 just showed Irma possibly taking this same route right off the east coast idk why people are condemning this guy
Because Fox and this guy don't know shit.. These storms can change in an instant. Especially if they are being directed by man made means. GET OUT OF FLORIDA.. You have nothing to loose if you get out, you can always go back. BUT IF YOU DON"T GET OUT and you stay and this thing does hit you, you will most likely die.
agree
Chill it's gonna trail along the east coast here and I'm a native Floridian whose been through Andrew and I'll tell you this Everyone is not gonna die just a lot of homes will be destroyed sadly
Mike Perry Check the latest update! Fox4 said it's moving west!
Thanks for your work. I like this model. :)
FalconMoose but NHC New euro model is much accurate. Don't fall on him or you will be killed because that fake info!
Trust me. Don't fall him. Trust TWC (The Weather Channel) or Accuweather
Wow so good news for Florida but what about the group of islands called to Bahamas next to it
You need to look back to just a year ago when Matthew took that path! It was smaller and places along Fl east coast are STILL trying to rebuild and clean up! It passed 20 miles off the coast of Tybee Island in Savannah Ga as a cat 2 and we are still trying to clean up!! We had very significant damage!! Matthew hit next to Hilton Head Island Sc at a cat 1! They are still trying to get over it! Never mind the mess it caused in NC and Va!!! I get not trying to over dramatize something but do NOT just blow it off as no big deal!In 89 Hugo came by and slammed Chatleston , Ga had major damage then as well!You can't just blow it off as no big deal because that can cause more damage to lives! You can state facts of the what it can cause without dramatizing it!
Native Floridian living in Coastal NC. This is exactly what the winds are looking like it is going to be very similar to Matthew. Skirt the Florida east coast and will come up and hit SC/NC line
Susie Tilley you rigth
Either way, this storm is on its way to my home, I'm done reinforcing as much as I can, and I'm leaving, I'm not about to stick around and find out the wrong way that this was wrong
Awesome Fan98 that's the right attitude, same thing I'd do.
It's the strongest storm ever recoded in the Atlantic.......fear mongering most certainly in order. I pray the happy ending models hold up but always prepare for the worst. Godspeed Florida
Irma is so huge that even if it does not hit directly , it will cover a huge area with high winds and rain. Once it finally hits it should be a Cat 3 by then.
I was just thinking of you the other day and wondered how you been and what you been up to. I hope all is well with you my friend.
There is one nuclear power plant at the tip of Floridas coast ! We have to meditate and send calmness with the help of Ether (fifth element expansion of the sky) to calm down Irma and José and conduct them away from the coast. We have to help not only watch, people need help from us all.
Who are you????? What you are saying 100% contradicts what all of the meteorologist and moose channels and broadcasters and forecasters are saying. How can you say such things with such confidence knowing that people watch this channel?
Terry P Dennison what if he is right?, meteorologists have been wrong before.
Terry P Dennison he's trying to help people. No one on 100% right but there's nothing wrong with him giving people the info that he has.
Not just to you, BUT to all of you... According to the updates of CNN. He predicted this scary accurately. LMAO... Go figure... Good job bro.
I'm in Ormond beach, where are you located? It's calm here, but I know that people are nervous.
AMERICABALLS OFSTEEL the weather station always lies about us getting hit. i remember they had a hurricane track where the hurricanes went into the gulf and turned ALL the way around and hit us and I was like wtf.....it didnt happen lol
Bruh a 3rd hurricane lol I'm in NYC I hope it miss me with that but please be safe out there guys & remember ! No FEMA camps
I noticed, that when I watched your videos. the new media report the same info abot 10hours later
Hey Flat thought this was pretty good info. Cajun navy was seeing hints of a turn north this morning from their sources.
as well.
Thanks. I like you're reporting. People just want to get freaked out about something.
Is it coming to Albuquerque
Morning bud. Hope this is correct
Love this guy. Like listening to a coach go over film.
I'm a born Floridian and have always said "Those who stay are what's called natural selection".
this guy is good.. he posted this around 6am now the palm beach post just released a shift to the east at 11pm
Sgt. Flat, I feel for you. The anger in tje comments here. You should perhaps have made it clear that you personally weren't predicting anything but rather just reading from the most recent projection. I saw the change in the models independently from you by viewing the EMCWF, GFS, GEM and several others.
Do they really get brushed by hurricanes all the time
How is a cat 5 skimming up the east coast good news?
All these people hating on this app and the guy is right. Ive even been saying this about Irma that it will shift more east then what they expect. No doubt always take precaution but these storms usually at this time of year end up in SC, NC. I live in wilmington and Ive always kept a close eye on hurricanes and they always miss FL and skirt up the coast. (Meaning the eye hitting land)
funny comments are bad when this was put out but buy the afternoon it is spot on with the major news channels
omg! it will tear the East side of Florida like a BUZZ SAW what are you talking about!
When I run this same model I get her lingering over the Keys then on the 10th the eye wall brushes Miami and the eye stays just barely off shore then comes inland just below Myrtle Beach SC // until that FL front meets Irma we have NO CLUE where Irma is going,.
I hope you are right. It is my understanding the Euro models are more accurate over the last years. Time will tell. If you are right, I will eventually subscribe to your channel. Otherwise, I am preparing to evacuate in a few hours.
I like the app. I like the visuals . I live in Florida. If it scrapes along the coastline it damages the beaches, . Great surf for a while. This app and from aboout 3 days ago I predict a NY hit;. Its going NE. wait for it:)
I've had a TBI...What Sept.11th have to with anything(...besides 9/11 event)?
Correction;(9/11/2001)!
Wonder why no one is talking about the simularities in this track to the great sea island storm of 1893 or 1896 in which the death toll was thousands for GA SC even though none of us were born yet obviously the track is very simular and it sounds like it must have been a cat 5 thanks for your channel, it seems to stay one step ahead
YES YES! Praying for this to not hit Florida.
LOL @ way to sound sure of yourself Sarge ! It might Miss Florida but then again it might not , Oh wait a Minute , this is going to be a significant hurricane no doubt about it . . . . Last time I checked it already is a significant hurricane, the Islands are getting pounded with a light breeze clocked at close to 200 MPH in some spots , that is pretty significant . . . .Sure the model looks great though :)
Yea, not going to take anyone serious that refers to people that live in Florida as Flora-Danians
Can we actually moab these while they were still far away from land?
Floridainians! That's a new one. That's Floridians. Lil guy
This app is terrible, nothing like what the weather station is saying
exactly they don't know where it's going it's all speculation smh
In my country the site said: at 2 pm the sky will covered with clouds then it did at 4pm there will rain and it started to rain at 4:02 pm
Zach Hib if this actually happens, then it is great news tho.
Zach Hib the weather station almost always lies about hurricanes hitting Florida though. it's like they want florida to get destroyed
UnforsakenAssassin they want them prepared not destroyed.
I'm hoping and praying you are right.
I've been tracking it using this and it's gone exactly were it's shown to be so not getting excited but I'm confident
This track is one of several possibilities, and for now, still everything is possible! Don´t rely on this forecast! Many forecast are showing still a dangerous 890hpa Hurricane directly over Florida...and even this forecast showing a 892hpa Hurricane heading north, the eye wall would be directly hitting Miami and all other big cities on the east coast with winds up to 250km/h.
Good luck. Irma is "trapped" by Katia (cat1 ) and followed by Jose ( still cat 1), no chances for the perfect storm ( thankfully) but many chances that will be stationary for longer on the same spot. Like Harvey was. :(
Will it last to nj
Whats the program you use to show this stuff?
I was thinking about you brother and hope you are doing well. please get back to me and let me know you are ok.
Incorrect, more than 80 percent of the models, including the most accurate Euro model show it going to toward the middle of Florida to the west
That 11 pm advisory says otherwise and the GFS is considered most accurate next to European models and everyday the storm prediction keeps shifting east
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION! everyone must STILL do and act as though they are going to get a direct hit. better to be safe than sorry. (Just like Sgt. Flat IS saying.)
"Good new" it's good it's not going to Florida but it comes to Carolinas I'm there it's fine!
Considering this storm is the size of our entire state of Florida even if the eye goes up the coast were still gonna get some nasty stuff. And the fact I live right there on the coast I'm still gonna say we need to worry ....
I hope you are right!!
nanaPhyllis Bennett me too
nanaPhyllis Bennett are you in FL?
Mya Cusimano no North Carolina
ME TOO! I'm in FLORIDA. About 20 mins from the Kennedy Space Center, and about 45 mins away from Orlando, Daytona beach js I hope he's right! :/
+Mya Cusimano I am in FLORIDA. js Take care.
Not just to you, BUT to all of you... According to the updates of CNN. He predicted this scary accurately. LMAO... Go figure... Good job bro.
Being from Florida, I hope the model holds...but I also hope Irma isn't Hugo Revisited. As far as predicting it is concerned, that far out it's a tossup, there's no reason to think it's any more or less accurate than what the news media is saying.
Yea tuff ....I'm worried about my house !!
Please help I live in orlando Florida
You forgot one thing, the government is going to make sure and stir the storm directly into Florida.
we know hurricanes well enough to know it can go anywhere on shore or off light will be out, work will be closed, tree's will be down
He is not saying people should not prepare?! If anything this could be a little bit of hope. Anybody who uses this video as a guide on their preparation will get what they have coming. I would hope most will be smarter than that. Whether it does just skim the coast or not it's still something everybody should prepare for! Nobody can 100% predict where this monster will go?! Not even your local meteorologists. He is not messing with people's lives quit being so dramatic people holy sheeshus! People amaze me. BTW that is an amazing app! Awesome to look at all the details whether it's 100% accurate or not that is so amazing!
We're interested in the Irma affecting planet earth. Boom!
MAN.. I PRAY YOU ARE CORRECT!
Where does he get his info from?
Is this guy a real meteorologist???
As she TEARS her way North. Tare is when you zero out a scale before weighing something. So, so many people don't know how to write or use proper words.
The hurricane is like yeah people going move away from Florida aand into other states and the hurricane like sike I'm following y'all
What's a Flordainian?
Do not underestimate the winds in Florida.
Staying off shore could be a WORST case scenario, because over the water it will continue to stay strong. . . My friend, you obviously have never lived through a Cat 5.
Let's ALL THINK POSITIVE.
Irma is going to go on the left side, the cold front from the north is going to dip down way to the south on friday night
FLORIDIANS BRO , We are Floridians
Actually, this would be one of the worst case scenarios. The eye wall is the strongest part of the Hurricane, and right now it has the left edge of eye wall riding the east coast of Florida (That includes Miami) and then making landfall in Georgia. The issue with that is Irma would still largely stay on water, and that Florida isn't very mountainous. That means she won't lose much strength while she's causing damage, which means she will last longer (all the way up to Georgia), which means she will cause more damage (as I just said), which means she will take more lives. Not good.
What we want is for Irma to make a direct hit on the southern tip of Florida, then move up the center of the peninsula until it's fully finished. It will lose strength much quicker, plus the eye will take up a good portion of the width of the peninsula so Florida would be largely okay and Irma will be sapped of most hurricane force winds long before it hits any other states.
I'm on the east coast, and let me tell you buddy, we're gonna get fucked. I have to crowd in my bathroom with one dog, 2 chickens, 2 ducks, a rabbit, and 4 pet birds and another person. for hours or days. Really lookin foward to the smell.
i give up
my friend's family lives in Flordia
I live in Palm Beach County so you better be fucking right!!!
I live in downtown Charleston how your basically saying it's hitting us but it's no big deal and not as bad as we think. I fucking cat 4 or 5 hitting Charleston sc that is already below sea level and floods badly when it just rains, what the hell man?
Panzer Blitz ppl from all over the us come to visit Charleston you have obviously never been
You can't fully correct a hurricanes path. It can change at any moment on the direction.
Man are you the weatherman
Where do you get your info,The Disney Channel? It is not forecasted to be as far off shore,as you showed. The other info does not match to what is going on in the upper atmosphere and the highs and steering currents. Get facts before you post
What's the mmmmkkaaayyyyy guy from south park.... Yeah this has to be him In real life
Mr Mackie hurricanes are bad mmmkay
I want to go to Alabama .. ;C
Hope your right.. pshh.. I live in florida and when it storms it storms..
Kassandra Byrd God be with you
I been saying this from Jump Street that Irma wll not make Florida landfall............
Wait.. He said GFS model. *Not from National Hurricane Center* maybe GFS info are wrong or inccorect
The correct from National hurricane center. That hurricane will hit florida. REALLY HIT FLORIDA
yeah there is now a 3rd hurricane katia in gulf of mexico
You are the best
Did he say what the origin of this model is? Anyone?
No, it's not good news! I'm in the Carolinas and it is not good news! Forecasters say it will be a Cat 3 when it comes to the Carolinas. I've been thru 3 hurricanes while I lived in FL. In 2004, I went thru Frances and Jean (twice taking the eye - major damage to homes from these two hurricanes). The last one I went thru was Wilma in 2005 and as a Cat 2 hurricane it totaled my car and damaged some of the houses around me. I hunkered down and rode out all these hurricanes and they were one of the most scariest experiences in my life (especially Wilma). I hope for all Floridians and my family down there that the hurricane steers eastward and misses the state but the only good news would be if it totally went out to sea!
I think stating that there will be minimal effects from a storm like this is a bit irresponsible. These forecasts are nothing but educated guesses and can change at a moment's notice. This storm is big and very, very powerful so even if it skirts the coast you are going to see major damage.
This is not weather forecasting. This is simply saying what a weather model is telling you without regarding the actual driving forces in the atmosphere. First, you are using the model's surface output conditions which are simply extrapolated from above surface conditions using climatologically averaged conditions for the last two years. Furthermore, the GFS surface output usually verifies as trash under normal conditions and even worse under extreme conditions. This hurricane is not climatogically normal and the surface output is almost certainly garbage. Furthermore, weather models are heavily based on an atmosphere operating under climatological normals and therefore perform best when the atmosphere is operating in near normal conditions. Under extreme conditions, a forecaster must have an understanding of the atmospheric features at play and understand how the model is interpreting these conditions. For example, since yesterday I have noticed that the Bermuda High was being forced to retreat by this hurricane, which models at that time did not anticipate (that was why they showed the storm hitting South Florida or going in the Gulf of Mexico). Therefore, I and my colleagues realized that this storm could potentially turn northwards and spare Florida from the worst of the storm. Recent model runs have picked up on this idea as well and we will likely see a final landfall elsewhere in the Southeast which will ultimately be determined by the strength of a trough over the Mid-Atlantic and New England. I could explain more of what is going on here but I will refrain. What you are doing here is misleading, unprofessional, and potentially deadly.
Good news my ass, it's heading full speed with great fury that the world has never seen before towards Mar A Lago.
i will be back on here to laugh at all you laughing at his video. this tracker is more accurate than the mainstream medias. i will be back..as i am in orlando, floroda right now, so i will tell you exactly what this will be for Florida. laugh it up now, than you will all just say " better safe than sorry" when you see he is correct.
Maybe many prayers are being answered!!!
A Push will come off the gulf also Driving both storms east... i Think
Good news! We can go back to driving our H2 Hummers!