Former fusion scientist on why we won't have fusion power by 2040

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 24 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 8 тис.

  • @pollywanda
    @pollywanda 3 роки тому +11466

    This project is worth keeping an ion.

    • @davidastle9472
      @davidastle9472 3 роки тому +806

      You might get "charged" for that one.

    • @LordZontar
      @LordZontar 3 роки тому +724

      @@davidastle9472 Are you positive about that?

    • @wizzyno1566
      @wizzyno1566 3 роки тому +97

      Superb.

    • @bittechslow
      @bittechslow 3 роки тому +38

      Yeah, I see what you did there, bruh.

    • @bitcoinski
      @bitcoinski 3 роки тому +58

      Nerd.

  • @drmodestoesq
    @drmodestoesq 3 роки тому +10255

    Someone once said that physics is math constrained by the limits of reality. And that engineering is physics constrained by the limits of money.

    • @sastrugi4471
      @sastrugi4471 3 роки тому +145

      We've kinda solved the money problem, in these new days of QE and massive magic tax cuts. At least for now.

    • @Mernom
      @Mernom 3 роки тому +578

      @@sastrugi4471 Actually building something is a problem of money constrained by greed. AKA how much of the money will be pocked away with nothing to show for it.

    • @sastrugi4471
      @sastrugi4471 3 роки тому +98

      @@Mernom all money is relative. Greed is just an aspect of markets. Greatest failure in most projects on the money and time parts is constantly changing specs midstream.

    • @hypothalapotamus5293
      @hypothalapotamus5293 3 роки тому +150

      Fusion tech is perfectly at home among vaporware projects.
      Profitable Fusion energy that will solve all of our problems is always two decades away.
      It was that way when my dad was born.
      It was that way when I was born.
      It will probably be that way when I die.

    • @justgivemethetruth
      @justgivemethetruth 3 роки тому +3

      Love it!

  • @fujatv503
    @fujatv503 3 роки тому +2319

    Improbable Matter: "If there is enough interest I will make a follow-up video..."
    UA-cam algorithm: "you are now a fusion-power youtube channel, bitch."

    • @Myndale
      @Myndale 3 роки тому +56

      Nah, it's more like:
      Me: "Hey, this video that just popped into my feed looks interesting, I wonder what it's ab...uh oh."
      UA-cam and Google: "Lol, interested in fusion, eh? Good to know, good to know..."

    • @greatcesari
      @greatcesari 3 роки тому +15

      @@Myndale I like the first iteration a little more.

    • @truthsRsung
      @truthsRsung 3 роки тому +2

      The topic must be EVIL if UA-cam likes it.

    • @napoleonbonerfarte6739
      @napoleonbonerfarte6739 3 роки тому

      @@truthsRsung is this really the way you think?

    • @truthsRsung
      @truthsRsung 3 роки тому

      @@napoleonbonerfarte6739 ....Use examples to persuade me otherwise.
      I like numbers. Tell me, after Einstein demystified the power of the sun, how many nuclear reactors we built as opposed to how many nuclear weapons?
      Now go look at the most popular uTube videos and rate them on their potential of EVIL on a fifty shades of grey scale.

  • @adrianmillard6598
    @adrianmillard6598 Рік тому +669

    Wow. A guy who has a reasoned attitude towards fusion AND cites sources. I think you're my hero. :)

    • @JonesBeiges
      @JonesBeiges Рік тому +9

      But this fortune teller has been proven wrong already.

    • @karenrobertsdottir4101
      @karenrobertsdottir4101 Рік тому +29

      I disagree. This is the dumbest video I've seen on this topic in quite a long time.
      * Spends most of the video talking about the absolute basics of fusion power rather than his hypothesis (no fusion power by 2040)
      * Literally the only support for his timeline is "airports take a decade to build". Hey, have I news for you, Tesla builds entire car factories (some of the world's largest) in 1-2 years from announcement to first customer-vehicle production. Now, there's usually at least a year of non-public negotiations and planning behind the scenes, but your notion of "airports take a decade means fusion power plants will take much more" is beyond ridiculous.
      * Fission power plants can take a decade, but unlike fusion they face the risk of runaway reaction (whereas with fusion the challenge is keeping it going at all) and massive production of *extremely* toxic materials. Whereas with fusion you not only produce far less, far slower, but you have control over what gets produced via what the reactor is made out of (rather than "essentially everything" as per fission and its decay chains), and thus can ensure that nothing remains "hot" for long periods. Fission *should* take far longer than fusion to permit and certify!
      * He spends his entire video attacking straw men rather than mentioning *actual, specific fusion projects* and criticizing said actual projects.
      * He then goes on to praise ITER at the end as a great example of success. When even ITER scientists I've spoken with see it as an over-budget behind-schedule dead end that produced useful science but is pursuing a technologically obsolete dead-end rather than making use of lessons learned and advancements elsewhere.
      * His one commercial project he praises is Commonwealth Fusion, and how he thinks they're legit and a solid approach (but says he couldn't find a timeline from them). Hey, guess what? Their CEO *has* talked timelines, and he said that if everything goes well, they could have a commercial reactor by 2030. Now, expect delays, but still: the ONE time in his "refuting of very optimistic claims" that there will be fusion power before 2040, in which he actually mentions a commercial company, he says that they're legit, and it turns out, said company is targeting as early as *2030* .
      This video is terrible.
      He doesn't even address the reasons *why* there's suddenly a boom in interest in fusion power. Perhaps the biggest one being the commercial availability of REBCO tapes, which simply wasn't the case when ITER was in the design stage. Decreases the size of a tokamak or other forms of magnetic confinement by literally an order of magnitude for a given gain factor, as well as providing a number of other benefits, such as in usable magnet coolants and liner replacement processes. The thing about tokamaks is, the gain factor is readily computed. There's no magic to it; the challenge is that to get a good gain factor requires massive scale. But reducing the scale by an order of magnitude reduces costs likewise by an order of magnitude, and dramatically simplifies peripheral aspects as well.

    • @VeganSemihCyprus33
      @VeganSemihCyprus33 Рік тому +1

      They have enslaved and fooled you 👉 The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

    • @adrianmillard6598
      @adrianmillard6598 Рік тому +1

      @@VeganSemihCyprus33 I'm rolling on the floor laughing at you.

    • @adrianmillard6598
      @adrianmillard6598 Рік тому +2

      @@VeganSemihCyprus33 How do you know if someone is a vegan? - Don't worry they'll tell you.

  • @garycooper9319
    @garycooper9319 3 роки тому +2273

    Great video:: I remember when I was a young electrical engineering student in the 1950s in the UK when I read an article about a fusion machine which I think was called ‘Zita’ that was supposed to have achieved fusion and was predicted that this would eventually be able to supply the world with unlimited energy. Later it was decided that the machine had not achieved fusion but that within 10 or 20 years of development it would. I am now 85 years old and i am still waiting.

    • @Veritas-invenitur
      @Veritas-invenitur 3 роки тому +152

      I hate to break it too you but fusion reactors that produce enough power to make them worth it are over 100 years away.

    • @Muonium1
      @Muonium1 3 роки тому +80

      The machine was called "Zeta", if you want more information.

    • @MyKharli
      @MyKharli 3 роки тому +11

      @@Veritas-invenitur never , we haven't got 100 years !

    • @Veritas-invenitur
      @Veritas-invenitur 3 роки тому +67

      @@MyKharli You know, if humans really wanted fusion to work then they could accomplish it in 5 years. They just do not want to accomplish it in such a dirty and contradicting manner. The real problem with fusion is not getting it to produce more power than you put in. The real problem is getting it to produce more power than you put in without utilizing dirty technologies. You see. You can build a fusion reactor that nets a gain if it also utilizes additional fission reactions to maintain the containment field. But no one wants to use such dirty and dangerous methods.

    • @willybird3377
      @willybird3377 3 роки тому +31

      @@MyKharli not with Biden in charge

  • @NotAnIlluminatiSpy
    @NotAnIlluminatiSpy 3 роки тому +1023

    Thumbnail implies that OP is the reason we won't have fusion power.
    Someone should stop him.

    • @carlosandleon
      @carlosandleon 3 роки тому +23

      lmao

    • @vivechjorviani5440
      @vivechjorviani5440 3 роки тому +30

      He’s too powerful to be left alive

    • @trydodis690
      @trydodis690 3 роки тому +32

      The Antifusion, we must stop him.

    • @HangTimeDeluxe
      @HangTimeDeluxe 3 роки тому

      The video implies otherwise, you should watch it.

    • @NotAnIlluminatiSpy
      @NotAnIlluminatiSpy 3 роки тому +8

      @@HangTimeDeluxe Couple things.
      1. You're adorable.
      2. Video is clearly propaganda.

  • @CrniWuk
    @CrniWuk 3 роки тому +648

    "You will be lucky to build an airport in 9 years"
    This guy knows Berlin!

    • @julien-francoiscollin9843
      @julien-francoiscollin9843 3 роки тому +16

      AHAH true! Also look at London Heathrow extension (new runway) will probably take 10 years!

    • @hadrienlart
      @hadrienlart 3 роки тому +13

      And BER is a terrible airport ! So many problems. And special shout-out to the confusing signs

    • @Boog_masskway
      @Boog_masskway 3 роки тому +2

      Or how long it takes to get a subway built in Toronto

    • @element_m2498
      @element_m2498 3 роки тому +4

      HAHA!!- Damn right you are! Greetings from Germany.

    • @magnaviator
      @magnaviator 3 роки тому +10

      not in China

  • @masterrafferty4065
    @masterrafferty4065 Рік тому +1197

    Has anyone considered harnessing the energy produced by the power of friendship?

    • @doomsdoor
      @doomsdoor Рік тому +26

      Guns do have a lot of power

    • @breakthecycle5238
      @breakthecycle5238 Рік тому +19

      Commeees tries that 😂

    • @94namnam
      @94namnam Рік тому +24

      So... Soviets were originals fans of My little pony?

    • @xAfroMetalHead1990x
      @xAfroMetalHead1990x Рік тому +10

      Not enough true altruism for that to be viable

    • @colchronic
      @colchronic Рік тому +29

      Seems like the real fusion was the friends we made along the way

  • @Narokkurai
    @Narokkurai 2 роки тому +2106

    Actual Fusion Researcher: The problems facing fusion power are real and significant. I see no current technology that can solve these problems, nor can I reasonably predict when such technology will be developed, if ever.
    Commenters: But have you tried just like... THINKING HARDER???

    • @TherandusGaming
      @TherandusGaming 2 роки тому +186

      While generally I do agree with your statement pointing out the responses of commenters. At the same time, perseverance, hope, creativity and many failures is how new technological advancements throughout history have been born. As a scientist, if you ever want to be successful you need to not be pessimistic or even realistic, you need that optimism in order to make the impossible possible. So it actually makes me sad seeing videos like this. Great things are never easy and always seem impossible.

    • @davekosak5215
      @davekosak5215 2 роки тому +39

      You're not thinking hard enough! For shame.

    • @ClockworkGearhead
      @ClockworkGearhead 2 роки тому +121

      @@TherandusGaming Yeah, no. "Just ignore reality." That's not how science works.

    • @Small_Vocaloid_UTAU
      @Small_Vocaloid_UTAU 2 роки тому +67

      At the end he pointed out that the technology being developed at the moment is making steady progress. He didn't say the technology might never be developed.
      In my view, fusion technology is showing steady progress and will start to be available around 2050. ITER has a great contribution in this, although I hope that Wendelstein 7-X will provide scientists and engineers sufficient knowledge to create a new generation stellerator which supplies more energy than the whole system uses.

    • @jansonshrock2859
      @jansonshrock2859 2 роки тому +3

      meanwhile in India: fusion power? what do you mean problems? ours works just fine!

  • @moosefactory133
    @moosefactory133 3 роки тому +270

    I remember when I was in 5th grade during the 1968/1969 school year watching a video about fusion energy and it stated that it will be about 50 years away. In my young mind I could not even imagine being alive a half century later. Half a century came and went and fusion energy is still not a reality but what is a reality is I am still alive and kicking.

    • @mitseraffej5812
      @mitseraffej5812 3 роки тому +10

      I hear you. I’ve had a life of extremely poor health requiring many many surgical procedure, I’m just flabbergasted that I’ve made it past 60 and what’s more I’ve fathered many children. See all things are possible, even nuclear fusion.

    • @mitseraffej5812
      @mitseraffej5812 3 роки тому +6

      @@no3ironman11100 Where did you get that stereotype from?

    • @taherpatrawala_
      @taherpatrawala_ 3 роки тому +11

      @@no3ironman11100 This comment was so unnecessary

    • @raffaeledivora9517
      @raffaeledivora9517 3 роки тому +5

      @@no3ironman11100 Imagine when you will be old... how will you feel when people who don't even know you will spew shit on you just based on prejudices. Absolutely disgusting

    • @henryD9363
      @henryD9363 3 роки тому +1

      @@no3ironman11100 you have done your very best to contribute here. You can do no better. Congratulations

  • @MassMoment
    @MassMoment 3 роки тому +917

    As a mechanical engineer, I want to thank you for pointing out how efficiencies play into this struggle; they are rarely discussed. Nevertheless, I feel that the hype generated by small gains is still important. The excitement attracts funding for further research, which is needed for many years to come.

    • @JonFrumTheFirst
      @JonFrumTheFirst 3 роки тому +25

      You assume that the funding won't be wasted.

    • @raffaeledivora9517
      @raffaeledivora9517 3 роки тому +223

      @@JonFrumTheFirst You should put foot in a real experimental lab before talking about wasting funding. It's extremely insulting, and shows you know nothing, nothing about research, which is generally nothing but dramatically underfunded.

    • @sajadbilgrami6809
      @sajadbilgrami6809 3 роки тому +5

      It’s a fools errand..put effort on Fission

    • @JonFrumTheFirst
      @JonFrumTheFirst 3 роки тому +10

      @@raffaeledivora9517 Don't cry, baby - you'll get over it.
      You think it should be funded? YOU pay for it.

    • @forwarduntodawn285
      @forwarduntodawn285 3 роки тому +143

      @@JonFrumTheFirst bruh, return your Papa's phone to him and go do your algebra homework .

  • @brianbutton6346
    @brianbutton6346 Рік тому +99

    I was not expecting the goat on a treadmill. Delighted you included it.

    • @reachforthesky1576
      @reachforthesky1576 6 місяців тому +4

      Agreed. A beautiful and very telling change of pace.

    • @MessyTimes
      @MessyTimes 3 місяці тому +1

      No one ever expects the goat on the treadmill! That and the Spanish Inquisition!

  • @neuvocastezero1838
    @neuvocastezero1838 3 роки тому +393

    "... just as soon at their time machine division completes their project."
    lol

    • @Jazman342
      @Jazman342 3 роки тому +53

      What do we want? Time travel. When do we want it? It's irrelevant.

    • @f1reguy587
      @f1reguy587 3 роки тому +5

      Logical, get the time machine, go back with info, evolve tech faster… love the concept, but like politics, it’s just saying stuff to get a positive response.

    • @ohhansel
      @ohhansel 3 роки тому +1

      Ah good old nerd humor.

    • @IBeforeAExceptAfterK
      @IBeforeAExceptAfterK 3 роки тому +1

      Step 1: Invent time machine
      Step 2: Go to the far-off future of 2015
      Step 3: Buy a Mr. Fusion brand home fusion reactor
      Step 4: Return to the present year 2019 to show your new compact fusion reactor to the world

    • @hg2.
      @hg2. 5 місяців тому

      Fusion is a stupid boondoggle.

  • @keysersoze3987
    @keysersoze3987 2 роки тому +592

    I worked at Princeton Plasma Physics Lab (PPPL) for 32 years leaving in 2011. When I started in 1979, they said "We'll have fusion commercially in 20 years"! We did achieve fusion with a D T reaction in 1996 and we did produce 14 MeV neutrons. It was a lot of fun working there!

    • @monkmoto1887
      @monkmoto1887 2 роки тому +66

      I made a fission reactor in my garage but if anyone finds out they’ll come for me

    • @Spartan0430
      @Spartan0430 2 роки тому +197

      @@monkmoto1887 this comment was sponsored by Nord VPN

    • @Duomaxwell02M
      @Duomaxwell02M 2 роки тому +19

      @@monkmoto1887 Is your real name Sheldon Cooper?

    • @yourlogicalnightmare1014
      @yourlogicalnightmare1014 2 роки тому +22

      In other words, nothing that benefited society.

    • @tonyjones7373
      @tonyjones7373 2 роки тому +10

      @@yourlogicalnightmare1014 Exactly . Its all 'Pie in the Sky '

  • @techman2553
    @techman2553 3 роки тому +441

    This can't be true. I saw a working hydrocarbon based Mr. Fusion running on the back of a DeLorean, and it was producing at least 1.21 Jigawatts.

    • @champ8605
      @champ8605 3 роки тому +28

      It's actually gigawatts no idea why they said jigawatts because that ain't a thing.

    • @NRDavis-wl8vn
      @NRDavis-wl8vn 3 роки тому +42

      @@gwh0 But I saw it on T.V. so it must be true.

    • @charlesbrowne9590
      @charlesbrowne9590 3 роки тому +36

      @@champ8605 Gigawatts is correctly pronounced with a soft ‘g’, similar to the word ‘gigantic’. It may also be pronounced with a hard ‘g’ since there is no soft form in Greek. The English word is not old enough to have a preferred pronunciation.

    • @elefanny1106
      @elefanny1106 3 роки тому +7

      Jigga what?

    • @bakedbeings
      @bakedbeings 3 роки тому +10

      @@elefanny1106 Jigga who?

  • @TheUnsungVil
    @TheUnsungVil 2 місяці тому +5

    My physics professor once predicted:
    “Building a functioning fusion reactor would require nothing short of yet another _Manhattan Project_ … thousands of nuclear scientists, supported by a tenfold of construction workers, plant operators, security staff, drivers, cooks, cleaners, etc. - all in one spot in the middle of nowhere for espionage and sabotage deterrence… working 24/7… consuming the economic output of a mid-sized country in the process… for years on end… with uncertain outcome.“
    And frankly, if there were an endeavor with such a magnitude of effort, they were able to conceal it quite well - or word had gone out by now.

    • @cam609lee
      @cam609lee Місяць тому

      Fusion is an incredibly hard feat for sure.

  • @Ryarios
    @Ryarios 3 роки тому +307

    I worked on a fusion reactor back in the 80’s. They swore the next version would be a full scale commercial reactor. Parts of it were already on site! Here we are nearly 40 years later and it’s still 20 years away…

    • @mascot4950
      @mascot4950 3 роки тому +21

      It's a large site, takes a while to move the parts into position and assemble them.

    • @MrRedsjack
      @MrRedsjack 3 роки тому +19

      I blame the construction permits.

    • @Andytlp
      @Andytlp 3 роки тому +24

      would be foolish to buy into that far back. Fusion isnt fission lol. If fission is taking a sledgehammer to smash something, fusion is a doctor using a robotic scalpel to operate on an ants brain. like 1 to 100 difficulty change.

    • @Wingnut353
      @Wingnut353 3 роки тому +13

      @@Andytlp the main issue is field strength... and ITER has relatively weak magnets to what is currently available which is why projects starting to be built today at smaller scale with more powerful magnets are probably going to reach fusion before ITER does...

    • @Life-mt8zl
      @Life-mt8zl 3 роки тому

      @@Wingnut353 I thought they used electromagnets

  • @danapeck5382
    @danapeck5382 3 роки тому +816

    Hugh Loweth once quipped over lunch, "There's probably a reason the closest functioning fusion system is 98 million miles away." Classic Loweth.

    • @gabrielesteves7498
      @gabrielesteves7498 3 роки тому +3

      I understood that reference!

    • @gabrielesteves7498
      @gabrielesteves7498 3 роки тому +10

      It didn't work well in spider-man

    • @danapeck5382
      @danapeck5382 3 роки тому +4

      @@gabrielesteves7498 Loweth was a classic.

    • @ThePocketMedic
      @ThePocketMedic 3 роки тому +8

      Thermonuclear bombs are basically inertial confinement fusion systems.

    • @danapeck5382
      @danapeck5382 3 роки тому +58

      @@ThePocketMedic minus the "confinement" ...

  • @DragNetJoe
    @DragNetJoe 3 роки тому +1337

    One of the biggest downsides of overly optimistic fusion predictions is it delays or stops new modern fission plant development. I think somebody will crack the nut on fusion with some novel approach, but in the meantime we should be building GEN3+ fission plants that we actually know how to make. It is also entirely likely that even if the fusion nut is cracked the cost to build will be economically prohibitive. Fusion is the hail-Mary, but fission should be 6 yards over the middle, again and again.

    • @ptrkmr
      @ptrkmr 3 роки тому +95

      Yes, but we need to switch to entirely Thorium-based fission. I think it’s the only way to obtain public support and also try and reduce the radioactive shit we’re making until we get fusion. Also renewables need to be used more on small scale grids (I.e. neighborhoods and stuff)

    • @TheAlgorath
      @TheAlgorath 3 роки тому +10

      @@ptrkmr hell yeah, put the "breed" in "reactor"

    • @DragNetJoe
      @DragNetJoe 3 роки тому +130

      @@ptrkmr Thorium certainly has promise, but we could have/should have been using breeder reactors and re-burning waste for decades. Thorium remains largely unproven on industrial scale. I would argue we need a combination of technologies and not put all the eggs in one basket.

    • @usr7941
      @usr7941 3 роки тому +16

      @@ptrkmr does public prefer to have no electricity?

    • @Kyle-hz8kj
      @Kyle-hz8kj 3 роки тому +20

      Never thought I’d read someone using football plays to describe nuclear fusion, but I’m definitely here for it.

  • @lagunastreets9637
    @lagunastreets9637 Рік тому +25

    New fusion start-up mantra: Fake it till you make it.

    • @gaypirate
      @gaypirate Місяць тому

      That's every start-up

  • @JoseJimeniz
    @JoseJimeniz 3 роки тому +329

    XKCD Researcher Translation: "10 years" means "We haven't finished inventing it yet, but when we do, it'll be awesome."

    • @sc149
      @sc149 3 роки тому +2

      Something being invented is also not at all that it will be instantly brought into use on a large scale. We finally achieved energy neutral fusion recently. I genuinky think energy positive fusion by 2040 is a gimme, very uncomonly in laboratory like test settings. Still gonne be a lonnnnnnng time for it to be usefuly integrated into any national grid as anything other than a vanity or similar project.

    • @fernandobernardo6324
      @fernandobernardo6324 3 роки тому +5

      @@sc149 We didn't achieve what you think we did. Look for Sabine Hossenfelder nuclear con fusion video to understand what they really did.

    • @jaewok5G
      @jaewok5G 3 роки тому +4

      * if only you'd give us all the money

    • @LoneWolf-wp9dn
      @LoneWolf-wp9dn 3 роки тому +2

      yeah anything 10 years away is just vaporware

    • @DevinDTV
      @DevinDTV 3 роки тому

      @@sc149 yeah no shit. you kinda missed the point there

  • @changcheng73
    @changcheng73 3 роки тому +367

    One prominent soviet physicist once said about that matter: "fusion power will be there as long as humanity will need it". The amount of money spent on fusion problem in 10 years is 50 times less than Pentagon spends every single year!

    • @alexii911
      @alexii911 3 роки тому +54

      And it's still more than enough to build 30+ nuclear power plants every year that will be producing power constantly, cheap and safe.

    • @matthewfors114
      @matthewfors114 3 роки тому +37

      @@alexii911 yes and no, it would be cheap and safe if they used thorium, but thorium was never really used because it wasnt as good for nuclear weapons. i guess its way better for power plants and less radioactive if there was a meltdown. we could have endless power already from thorium

    • @matthewfors114
      @matthewfors114 3 роки тому +12

      @@alexii911 just make sure to advocate thorium if you talk about nuclear power. using uranium is bad and creates loads of waste(although im sure they could find use for the waste) but keep thinking THORIUM THORIUM THORIUM lol

    • @alexii911
      @alexii911 3 роки тому +32

      @@matthewfors114 could you please elaborate on loads of waste? Because as far as I know byproducts of nuclear fission mostly get recycled. If you don't know, please end this argument, because you are very likely to make a fool of yourself.

    • @azurelmao
      @azurelmao 3 роки тому +18

      @Alex Hell Yeah. If people actually wanted clean and safe energy, they would have already replaced most power plants with nuclear. Radioactive waste has nothing to do with this, it's safe when it's surrounded by meters and meters of concrete, which is how they contain it as far as I know.

  • @TCBYEAHCUZ
    @TCBYEAHCUZ 3 роки тому +196

    An incredibly sober take on the whole subject of actually commercially viable fusion energy.

    • @Sullaban
      @Sullaban 3 роки тому

      Chaim Goldbaum I keep trying to leave this site and the author keeps bring up valuable points. I guess I will stick around. Yes he is making a lot of incredible points. Here is a link on another topic, a topic of mine on a topic of importance. Worth a look thanks. these videos are not on topic but they are important
      they are worth a quick look
      studio.ua-cam.com/users/video0i1fekgBW6Q/edit
      ua-cam.com/video/DkOReIytOP4/v-deo.html

    • @TM-cm4gb
      @TM-cm4gb 3 роки тому

      its insane how muc hfalse information is in the system...

    • @sl5311
      @sl5311 2 роки тому

      Bums me out.

  • @Ergzay
    @Ergzay Рік тому +34

    Important note about the graphs around 8:40 is that the figure assumes classical low temperature superconductors with significantly reduced magnetic fields than are available in modern high temperature superconductors. That GREATLY reduces the major radius required and so changes the graph significantly.

  • @adamdanilowicz4252
    @adamdanilowicz4252 3 роки тому +609

    I wish advanced fission had the same hype and financial backing as some of these fusion start-ups. It's honestly remarkable how much more progress can be made with fission technology, both in terms of efficiency, fuel utilisation, and waste managment.

    • @mightyfinejonboy
      @mightyfinejonboy 3 роки тому +38

      i used to be against fission nuclear power until the quote that I heard was"we cannot control co2 emissions but we can control waste" it's the lesser of 2 evils. fusion generating grid power will never happen, it simply exists to suck up funds for research that pays mortgages.

    • @MMuraseofSandvich
      @MMuraseofSandvich 3 роки тому +56

      If anything, the current perception of nuclear fission power (i.e. Simpsons nuclear power where every nuke plant is nothing more than a bomb that didn't go off today) is evidence that _disinformation_ is more powerful than even the best efforts at informing the public about nuclear. Before _Radio Bikini_ and TMI, the main concern environmentalists had vs. nuclear was the loss of wilderness. But because people like David Brower convinced moms that nuclear plants would mutate their babies, we now have a fleet of aging reactors with no concrete plan to build better plants or reprocess spent fuel-- our plan is to kick the can down the road so our grandchildren can deal with the problem with the climate burning down around them and no resources to even get started solving the problem.

    • @tjsbbi
      @tjsbbi 3 роки тому +20

      @@mightyfinejonboy That might be more accurately put as we _could_ control waste, but we won't.

    • @dilbertjunkmail
      @dilbertjunkmail 3 роки тому +23

      We refuse to employ safer reactors as originally developed by the Air Force in 50s.
      Molten Salt Reactors offer more hope than Fusion and they already have a proof of concept. The famous Thorium Reactors hype of last twenty years could work as a fuel. Silence from media but offers greater benefit to cost.

    • @petesjk
      @petesjk 3 роки тому +36

      @@dilbertjunkmail You blame media, but the truth is, if the power companies wanted Thorium reactors, they would build them.

  • @LordZontar
    @LordZontar 3 роки тому +273

    I love one of the listed Direct Costs of coal: "Souls payment processing at the Company Store".

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  3 роки тому +104

      You're the first person to comment on that little joke, I was hoping more people got the reference.

    • @Rheinhard
      @Rheinhard 3 роки тому +11

      @@ImprobableMatter paging Tennessee Ernie Ford…

    • @jeffreysoreff9588
      @jeffreysoreff9588 3 роки тому +3

      @@ImprobableMatter I noticed it too, but LordZontar commented first. Congrats!

    • @jimofaotearoa3636
      @jimofaotearoa3636 3 роки тому +17

      Ya load 16 tons and whaddya get, another day older and deeper in debt...

    • @michaelz6555
      @michaelz6555 3 роки тому +1

      Doo, doo, doo, doo, doo do doo dooooooooooo...

  • @LiborTinka
    @LiborTinka 3 роки тому +162

    It's similar in chemical industry - a yield over 80% of a single step in organic synthesis is considered very good, and over 90% excellent. If just one step has say 50% yield, then the total yield of the whole process gets halved.

    • @jendlti
      @jendlti 3 роки тому +3

      So walter white is a god? Hehe

    • @tonypaca3015
      @tonypaca3015 3 роки тому

      There’s a company that got 120 millions Celsius for 101 second. Any progress here?

    • @LiborTinka
      @LiborTinka 3 роки тому +6

      @@jendlti Pretty much yes. Just the chemical workup (getting the products out from rxn mixture) and purification have significant losses. One would have to go for some fancy enzymatic process to get 97+% efficiency of an organic reaction and then some very tedious and energy-intensive workup the get all the product out of the reaction medium. It's never like baking a pie, where you just shove it in the oven, bake it (and shake it :D) and you're done. Even if the reaction efficiency is very high, the yield will be lower due to workup.

  • @johnindermuehle7632
    @johnindermuehle7632 6 місяців тому +8

    I work for CFS, thanks for the shout out haha.

  • @RacinJsn
    @RacinJsn 3 роки тому +141

    I think the takeaway is we should see how possible it is to scale up goats walking on treadmills to solve energy demand issues...

    • @carlodave9
      @carlodave9 3 роки тому +12

      I'm on it. All I need is 12 billion dollars for 8 goats, and my project will show 8-times the output efficiency of all the best fusion reactors yet created. Number go up!

    • @TheReaverOfDarkness
      @TheReaverOfDarkness 3 роки тому +4

      That's not the takeaway. Fusion *IS* a very, *very* good energy source. It's just *very* difficult to make it work. Goats on treadmills would be easy, except that it *can't* work.

    • @mikedrop4421
      @mikedrop4421 3 роки тому +3

      @@TheReaverOfDarkness bet you're fun at parties.

    • @TheReaverOfDarkness
      @TheReaverOfDarkness 3 роки тому +1

      @@mikedrop4421 Oh I'm definitely not.
      Not usually anyway.

    • @Shachza
      @Shachza 3 роки тому +3

      @@TheReaverOfDarkness Sounds like your parties need more goats! ;)

  • @JKenny44
    @JKenny44 3 роки тому +304

    Energy efficiency = 100%
    (Rounded up from 70%)
    Love that bit

    • @catherinev9847
      @catherinev9847 3 роки тому +7

      That there is some real maths

    • @lenOwOo
      @lenOwOo 3 роки тому +2

      Need 0. Before that 70%

    • @tuttt99
      @tuttt99 3 роки тому +2

      100% is not possible according to simple physics. The best thermal to electrical conversion efficiency is ~ 60%.

    • @dmitrizaslavski8480
      @dmitrizaslavski8480 3 роки тому +12

      @@tuttt99 lol, it is not about thermal to elecricity, but energy in/out reactor.

    • @joeywilliamz3838
      @joeywilliamz3838 2 роки тому

      Very Confusion 🤔

  • @alistermathie8485
    @alistermathie8485 3 роки тому +49

    This is the best video I've seen on Fusion engergy production, why it's difficult and why a seemingly postive gain isn't good enough! Great work!

  • @marcoelhodev
    @marcoelhodev 6 місяців тому +3

    It is interesting to see you mention ITER in a positive light. I was under the impression the ITER project was mostly a "show off" nuclear fusion reactor using a bunch of untested, experimental technology and approaches, but without any intent to achieve real fusion breakthrough, the real purpose would be to test other technologies. Glad to know there are people actually commiting to the original view and what was written on the paper.

  • @maekong2010
    @maekong2010 2 роки тому +69

    How you managed to make this subject entertaining, and not only entertaining, but hysterically funny, will always be beyond my reach. You, sir, are indispensable to the sciences. I wish I could ring the notification bell, like fifteen times.

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  2 роки тому +15

      Thanks. I'm running out of ideas for dry humor for the upcoming video, but I will try.

    • @maekong2010
      @maekong2010 2 роки тому +7

      @@ImprobableMatter Don't worry. It's more important to be interesting than humorous. Besides, I think the humor may sometimes happen unbeknownst to even you. Just don't stop educating, no matter what. You, and others like you, are all we've got left.

    • @Toro_Da_Corsa
      @Toro_Da_Corsa 2 роки тому +1

      @@ImprobableMatter Why do we need to bother with cold fusion and all this stuff ? Because of people's ignorant sentiments about conventional nuclear waste ?

  • @ImprobableMatter
    @ImprobableMatter  3 роки тому +514

    The first of a multi-part series of shorter videos beginning with the most asked-for topic, "why a fusor won't work (and why only thermonuclear fusion will lead to a gain in energy)", is now up: ua-cam.com/video/2DzKXN1pcwY/v-deo.html
    Since my video was posted, Sabine Hossenfelder discussed the misrepresentation of fusion gain vs engineering gain in a recent video: ua-cam.com/video/LJ4W1g-6JiY/v-deo.html
    I am making a response video.

    • @aeloolindowy
      @aeloolindowy 3 роки тому +3

      It is! One of the issues I couldn't find a reasonable answer to is, why can't fusors use electrical arcs/plasma as electrodes. They would be resistant to (almost) any amount of heat and radiation.

    • @infiniteuniverse123
      @infiniteuniverse123 3 роки тому +5

      It is always nice to hear someone admit problems in physics. Creating fusion that will produce a net gain is only the tip of the iceberg. How is a containment system going to be created that will create and maintain the reaction while we harvest the heat from it?
      We are looking for quark plasma. That is why the heat requirements get higher and higher. The Big Bang was our universe turning itself into a gargantuan particle collider. The galaxies are quark plasma shrapnel from this event. Each galaxy began its life as a single black hole. Every celestial object created in our galaxy began its life in the quark plasma state including our own planet. Our moon is the end of the entropy of quark plasma. That is how the conservation of energy and mass is carried out as elements are formed from the outside of the mass inward. Supernovae simply do not exist. Everything was already here when the big bang happened.

    • @edemilsonlima
      @edemilsonlima 3 роки тому +2

      Instead of a hot plasma, have scientists tried cold fusion by cooling hydrogen to nearly 0 Kelvin and applying electric current and megatons of pressure to it?

    • @AlexandreLollini
      @AlexandreLollini 3 роки тому +4

      Thanks for this information. I was almost there, ad that's why I prefer a short term future with fission as an energy source, possibly switching to Thorium molten salt low pressure with freeze valve gravity stop system. (removing pressure water and other risks) And using nuclear as a temporarily measure until we can make solar systems in orbit from molten asteroids to feed energy via mircowaves or lasers to Earth to gain area for forests and agriculture and stop to rely on Earth rare ressources.

    • @reahs4815
      @reahs4815 3 роки тому +1

      Thanks for the good video!

  • @philipwatson2407
    @philipwatson2407 2 роки тому +400

    I've followed this topic now since the mid-1970s, and we have been told consistently that fusion power is 'twenty years away'.
    I am inclined to suspect that two hundred years would probably be a closer estimate.

    • @holretz1
      @holretz1 2 роки тому +2

      Then look at the facts....

    • @nia.d33
      @nia.d33 2 роки тому +64

      I think its a mental trick we play to make us do the hard early work we will never live to see the results of. We tell ourselves that fusion will be here in 20 years so that people dont get discouraged and stop work on it as i suspect many would if they realised it would take 400 years to finish and not even their grandchildren might live to see it.

    • @holretz1
      @holretz1 2 роки тому +6

      @@nia.d33 There is a clear timeline now. It's not science anymore, it's engineering.

    • @DBZHGWgamer
      @DBZHGWgamer 2 роки тому +52

      @@holretz1 No, it's not just engineering. The tech to make workable fusion still doesn't exist. The timelines that exist are for the most part complete BS someone pulled out their ass, except for some of the timelines that don't yet have an end date.

    • @holretz1
      @holretz1 2 роки тому +7

      @@DBZHGWgamer I think you should keep your paranoid conspiracy theories for yourself....

  • @harikrishnanchandramohan4209
    @harikrishnanchandramohan4209 26 днів тому +3

    Its not a matter of science, its economies. The energy required to initiate and sustain fusion reactions is greater than the energy produced.

  • @victorcercasin
    @victorcercasin 3 роки тому +32

    I'm happy there are actual scientists talking about this stuff, not just DNews or the other 500 channels like them

    • @sgtjonmcc
      @sgtjonmcc 3 роки тому +12

      Scientists are talking about this stuff all the time, just through peer reviewed journals and not youtube.

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  3 роки тому +4

      @@sgtjonmcc Why not both?

    • @raifikarj6698
      @raifikarj6698 3 роки тому +1

      @@ImprobableMatter yeah with the succes of two minutes paper. There is really a need (and market ;-) for peer viewed video for us UA-cam scholar

  • @tsreasonify
    @tsreasonify 3 роки тому +111

    Thank you for this overview. I'm especially thankful that you clearly pointed out the logic of market manipulation for some of the more unscrupulous companies - the pump and dump that is well known from penny stocks and now crypto currencies - buy low, hype up, sell with profit and abandon the project.

    • @HerlingGA
      @HerlingGA 3 роки тому +5

      That's what I was thinking. At least I'm not the only one who thinks so.

    • @surfernorm6360
      @surfernorm6360 3 роки тому +4

      That sounds like how we have nuclear waste superfund sites all over the country or at fukushima where the money providers declare bankrutpcy and leave the cleanup to the government and working taxpayers or the one at Hanford Wa. Of coarse that was for defense research so its defendable. I wonder how soon Homers 3 eyed salmon will take

    • @incognitotorpedo42
      @incognitotorpedo42 3 роки тому

      @@surfernorm6360 3 eyed fish? Um, forever? Don't get your facts from anti-nuke cartoons.

    • @cosmic_gate476
      @cosmic_gate476 3 роки тому +2

      That my friend, is called an exit scam. Hyping a project to get investment then running away with the money

    • @christianlingurar7085
      @christianlingurar7085 3 роки тому +1

      you DID understand, that he's doing exactly that? this is not a scientific video, this is a manipulatory, untrue and badly biased opinion video. the presented figures are partly wrong or outdated and show only limited aspects of the whole. I guess the author is profiting from traditional energy sources or even trying to manipulate the stock price of some fraudulent bogus "venture capital" funded "fusion energy is here" stock exchange construct share... as you said, but it works the other way around, too, like "buy low calls, realize it was an error, hype down the shares, sell the calls" - while the shares never get that low again. btw, what exactly is a "FORMER fusion scientist"?! what is he now?!

  • @TheAwesomeMister
    @TheAwesomeMister 3 роки тому +29

    This is a very comprehensible and straight forward take on the whole fusion phenomenon. Thank you a lot!
    It's always hard to find some decent information on a hyped topic. Yours is outstanding helpful, honest and well sourced.

    • @lucasrem1870
      @lucasrem1870 2 роки тому

      Corruption that is, Merkel, Putin, Communist skum, Allah!
      Shell Exxon BP, we love dirty people in power!

  • @iainballas
    @iainballas Рік тому +57

    I love how the thumbnail implies one man is responsible for the delay of fusion power.

    • @vernonbrechin4207
      @vernonbrechin4207 5 місяців тому +1

      The efforts, in the quest for a nuclear fusion power plant, began during the 1950s. The experimenters have always assumed that a commercially practical power plant was only about 30 years away. After full careers spent on the quest all the early experimenters have retired and many have died. Those who followed them have just as much confidence that they will see a demonstration power plant within their lifetimes.
      They have all masterfully excluded the following warnings from their consciousness. I urge readers to search for the following two article titles.
      IPCC report: ‘now or never’ if world is to stave off climate disaster (TheGuardian)
      UN chief: World has less than 2 years to avoid 'runaway climate change' (TheHill)
      * This statement was made 5.5 years ago.

  • @eduardocavanagh
    @eduardocavanagh 3 роки тому +24

    Congratulations for this excellent presentation, thorough and realistically detailed with no hype

  • @mickberick8575
    @mickberick8575 3 роки тому +22

    As an A grade Electrician with 33 years experience I find this absolutely fascinating ,I've been avidly following the Tocomac and other reactor designs so your simple concise explanations -
    The analysis provided is clear and understood ,I'd be fascinated to see and actual breakdown of all the coils,pumps and other equipment to fully understand the power requirements of the input energy and then the outputs including losses and efficiencies .
    Also permanent energy inputs versus generator outputs .
    Follow up videos as you mentioned.
    would be marvelous if you get the time .
    Thanks for your well presented and informative work .

    • @rodericklenz5030
      @rodericklenz5030 3 роки тому +3

      The ITER website has a good rundown. The coils in their reactor contain something like 100,000km of wire.

  • @NA-lp2re
    @NA-lp2re 3 роки тому +9

    The fact that he doesn’t say it will never be possible is really encouraging.

  • @FromTheHeart2
    @FromTheHeart2 Рік тому +4

    Just discovered your channel! Fan already! Thanks a lot for sharing!

    • @phonsely
      @phonsely Рік тому

      its a bunch of misinformation

  • @sthanstigger2328
    @sthanstigger2328 3 роки тому +11

    Many thanks for this video. I’ve been trying to follow the progress of fusion research for 25 years now. The recent claims of start-up companies has left me bewildered. Your video is comprehensive and easy to understand 👍🏻😊

  • @jerryg50
    @jerryg50 3 роки тому +29

    This is one of the best explanations I have viewed about the reality of creating a usable fusion reactor! This type of project makes for an interesting research.

  • @kapytanhook
    @kapytanhook 3 роки тому +64

    Thank you so much for this voice of reason. I can't believe I have never heard of the engineering efficiency when that is all that matters.
    I get so sick of the UA-cam channels just blindly reading press releases with 0 thought. It is especially bad in the green energy field.

    • @Hongobogologomo
      @Hongobogologomo 3 роки тому +11

      Just seeing the word green used as a pronoun for energy makes me cringe. It's such a bastardized topic, contaminated by clueless and hostile imbeciles.

    • @touristguy87
      @touristguy87 3 роки тому +1

      "I get so sick of the UA-cam channels just blindly reading press releases with 0 thought."
      um, YT is a great magnet for the largely ignorant yet still slightly curious. Do you expect more of YT?

  • @Xsuperkraft
    @Xsuperkraft 13 днів тому +1

    Thank you - great video and great explanation!

  • @JamesSarantidis
    @JamesSarantidis 3 роки тому +64

    Chad ITER vs Virgin SPARC. Leaving the academic taunts aside, my uttermost respect to any of the researchers, investors and people in general that help our species climb the Kardashev scale.

    • @ToxicityAssured
      @ToxicityAssured 3 роки тому +2

      If it's a dead end or not so possible tech, then we are not climbing the scale... We would be going the wrong way.

    • @ianmeade7441
      @ianmeade7441 3 роки тому +24

      @@ToxicityAssured worst case scenario: we get really good at building superconducting magnets

    • @JamesSarantidis
      @JamesSarantidis 3 роки тому +13

      @@ToxicityAssured Even in that case, that's how science works. The wonderful people that work in these projects will examine experimentally why it is a dead end or not possible, so that the next tech will flourish. The only true wrong way in science is to stop asking questions. Hopefully, it is the right way. But time will tell.

    • @Nostradevus1
      @Nostradevus1 3 роки тому +11

      @@ToxicityAssured You never know what we may discover while in the process of trying to harness fusion reactions. NASA made major contributions to the creation of MRI's even thought they had no real interest or directive to research medical technologies.

    • @charminjarmin1234
      @charminjarmin1234 3 роки тому +1

      Ah yes the kardeshev scale very cool comment I never thought of it like that have my like.

  • @0sireion
    @0sireion 2 роки тому +46

    This is the best and clearest explanation of fusion reactors I have seen yet. It's great that you are a fan and are highly critical (dare I say, sarcastic). I would want all researchers working on fusion to be highly critical. The last thing we need is for someone's sloppiness to go awry. We'd pay for that for centuries.

  • @Christian-id1is
    @Christian-id1is 3 роки тому +84

    “Despite humanities best effort to cover the earth in blanket of greenhouse gasses” I ducking died.

  • @legitbeans9078
    @legitbeans9078 Місяць тому +1

    Okay this is a great video. You know to put the music right in the background so its not distracting. And your narration is legit. Theres a slight echo from the room youre in though. Maybe get some sound proofing. Either way im subbing this is great.

  • @wibblewobbler9104
    @wibblewobbler9104 2 роки тому +369

    You're definitely right about overly optimistic dates being given, but its hard to say what the future holds. MIT's higher temperature superconducting magnets was a huge breakthrough. If we have another 3 or 4 truly major breakthroughs in the technology, that could significantly decrease the time to the first fully operational reactor.

    • @marka1000
      @marka1000 2 роки тому +20

      That pesky cell wall material and tritium breeding is gonna bite our behinds. Plasma control too has got to be super tight.

    • @jackfoster3323
      @jackfoster3323 2 роки тому +50

      @@marka1000 As far as I'm aware, ITER (being built in southern France) uses a hybrid design that's not tokamak, but called stellerator or something like that. But i think it's supposed to be more efficient at confining the plasma. Also, tritium will be easy money on the moon, it's everywhere up there. In fact, I think achieving effective fusion power would trigger a new gold rush to the moon, and kickstart the actual colonizing of the moon. Just food for thought!

    • @esahg5421
      @esahg5421 2 роки тому +34

      MIT were only a "couple" of years from cracking cold-fusion and that was back when Val-Kilmer was a teen.

    • @wibblewobbler9104
      @wibblewobbler9104 2 роки тому +16

      @@esahg5421 Cold fusion, uri geller bending spoons with his mind... the 80s were a strange time of silliness :D

    • @esahg5421
      @esahg5421 2 роки тому +3

      @@wibblewobbler9104 can you believe it i was a fan of both lol, but been in every avenue i can imagine since. cold fusion sure cost alot of money just like zero-point energy and pyramid power yeah investigate everything but uri now uri was special. what he taught me was "no one trusts a magician" lol 🤣

  • @oman636
    @oman636 3 роки тому +27

    Great video, would love to hear about the other technical hurdles. Fusion does seem to be over hyped so it’s good to be brought back to ground

    • @Yora21
      @Yora21 3 роки тому +8

      Oh fusion is amazing. How easily and cheaply it can be done is overhyped.

  • @panpiper
    @panpiper 3 роки тому +19

    I read at least one article back in the 1960s telling us that fusion could be as close as ten years away. By the 70s though, most of those in the know promised us fusion was just thirty years away. It's now fifty years later and guess what? Fusion is STILL thirty years away.

    • @jeffreysoreff9588
      @jeffreysoreff9588 3 роки тому +3

      @Peter Cohen Yup, I think I read some of the same article(s?) back in the 60s as a kid. Now, as a 62-year-old, I just think of the real date as: "Not in my lifetime".

    • @88Superphysics88
      @88Superphysics88 3 роки тому

      For 70 years, scientists have been unable to make a thermonuclear reactor. why? The answer is simple - wrong theory! The reactor is therefore not done correctly. Scientists do not yet know how to make a thermonuclear reactor that gives out commercial heat. When do scientists promise to make a commercial thermonuclear reactor? Promise in 40 years! And they don't guarantee that. But, there is a technology that will help make a commercial thermonuclear reactor in two years. The theory is correct, the reactor design is correct.. I offer the transfer of technology for free, under the contract. 70 лет учёные не могут сделать термоядерный реактор. Почему? Ответ простой - неправильная теория! Реактор поэтому сделан неправильно. Учёные пока не знают, как сделать термоядерный реактор, который выдаёт коммерческое тепло. Когда учёные обещают сделать коммерческий термоядерный реактор? Обещают через 40 лет! И это они не гарантируют. Но, есть технология, которая поможет сделать коммерческий термоядерный реактор за два года. Теория правильная, конструкция реактора правильная. Предлагаю передачу технологии бесплатно, по договору. n-t.ru/tp/ie/ts.htm Thermonuclear fusion in the Sun - a new version. Термоядерный синтез на Солнце - новая версия.

    • @wowalamoiz9489
      @wowalamoiz9489 3 роки тому

      @@88Superphysics88 Scientists definitely have the right theory, otherwise they couldn't create fusion bombs.

    • @88Superphysics88
      @88Superphysics88 3 роки тому

      @@wowalamoiz9489 Сами подумайте. Бомбы сделали, а коммерческий термоядерный реактор не могут сделать 70 лет. Почему? Технология реактора намного проще чем технология бомбы. Think for yourself. The bombs were made, but a commercial thermonuclear reactor cannot be made for 70 years. Why? Reactor technology is much simpler than bomb technology.

    • @wowalamoiz9489
      @wowalamoiz9489 3 роки тому

      @@88Superphysics88 Because thermonuclear weapons use fission explosions to provide the necessary temperatures and pressure needed for surplus fusion. The reactors so far have not.
      *BUT*
      All the fusion reators have done fusion. Doing fusion is not hard, even a high schooler could do it. The only difficulty is to get SURPLUS energy from fusion. To have more output energy than input energy.
      If the theory was wrong, as you say, these reactors would not achieve fusion reactions. The fact is that they DO.
      The goal is not to achieve fusion, but to gain energy from fusion.

  • @m.streicher8286
    @m.streicher8286 Рік тому +3

    I wish someone like you would make a quantum computing video. This really demystified an almost mythical technology, quantum computing can feel the same way.

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  Рік тому +2

      One related to quantum computing is coming up, hopefully out next month.

    • @m.streicher8286
      @m.streicher8286 Рік тому

      @@ImprobableMatter I love you

  • @Buddhamaniac
    @Buddhamaniac 3 роки тому +76

    When I talk to people about the necessity of building new fission reactors they always say 'we don't need them because fusion will be here very soon' which of course is false.

    • @mcmarkmarkson7115
      @mcmarkmarkson7115 3 роки тому +30

      This renewable energy shit without nuclear power is war on the poor. In germany prices skyrocket and we still buy nuclear power from the french. It's pure insanity.

    • @yaykruser
      @yaykruser 3 роки тому +1

      @@mcmarkmarkson7115I thought we had to much electricity? The problem isnt the price of the energy, its the goddamm taxes!
      Same with gas.

    • @tetrabromobisphenol
      @tetrabromobisphenol 3 роки тому +6

      No one mentions how they plan to get the tons of deuterium needed to run fusion reactors either. Apparently electrolysis plants run off of lots of hamster wheels, rainbows, and dancing unicorns.

    • @zacheryeckard3051
      @zacheryeckard3051 3 роки тому +1

      @@tetrabromobisphenol That would be part of the "reaching net positive energy production" thing.
      You'd bleed some of the energy production from the reactor to power the electrolysis.

    • @acmefixer1
      @acmefixer1 3 роки тому +1

      The fission reactor industry must conquer the two major problems of new nuclear power plants: overruns on the costs in the tens of billions, and the delays for more than 10 years before the plant is commissioned.

  • @lcunash8093
    @lcunash8093 3 роки тому +5

    This video was extremely well made, I hope UA-cam blesses you with a larger audience.

  • @birdshotbill
    @birdshotbill 3 роки тому +5

    Detail in this video was spot on, I also saw the CFS release on the MIT channel and was also very excited about its prospects in the future. Would love for more content on this subject and for a follow up video. Keep up the good work!

  • @jonathannetherton6727
    @jonathannetherton6727 23 дні тому

    One of my uncles was a slave to a company store. They had a paper currency; the millers and extractors called souls. Almost shot by the state troopers for protesting being charged for certain waste disposal. I appreciate the zing! Good to see a sober-eyed view that isn't demonizing. Thank you.

  • @oliverwhittington6434
    @oliverwhittington6434 2 роки тому +37

    Very interesting, really opened my eyes to the hyperbole of these companies. I'm studying mech eng next year and would love to go into this field.

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  2 роки тому +19

      Good luck. Have a look at some other educational videos I have up.

    • @craigcarmichael5748
      @craigcarmichael5748 2 роки тому +2

      The numbers being presented by proponents seem to work out well for creating a self regenerating stream of R & D money.
      I think a better way to make as much electricity as desired would be to make a Tesla Coil and instead of grounding the bottom of the secondary like everybody else, run it though a load to ground. Tesla lit a whole bank of incandescent light bulbs. The excess energy captured seems to come from HE rays/short space rays, in the giga electron volt range, frequencies around 10 to the 24th Hz. Only at last detected I think it was 2007. (Your typical electromagentic spectrum chart ends before that with the gamma ray band.)

  • @alfthornton
    @alfthornton 3 роки тому +12

    It's very refreshing to see this issue discussed in a knowledgeable and digestible way. I would add that the disparity in fusion investment between the 1970s (resulting in the JET data shown at 7:40) and now (we haven't repeated let alone defeated that record) helps to motivate optimism about what is possible if we decide to spend the money. Going from Q=0 to Q=1 at the plasma may turn out to be much harder than going from Q=1 to Q=100. There are many industries around the world which have successfully tackled these nuclear engineering challenges such as tritium handling, neutron blankets, etc., but the stuff we needed to get to Q=1 was entirely novel. Fingers crossed that MIT can make us optimistic again!

  • @burnttoast26
    @burnttoast26 2 роки тому +98

    Being able to do something is one thing, making it efficient enough to apply it is something else, and the massive task of infrastructural overhaul is an entirely different matter. I do think that applied fusion will be achieved and utilized at some point in the future, but the time scale for that is 300 years, not 30. We don't even properly have the first step done yet.

    • @wdd3141
      @wdd3141 2 роки тому +1

      So we'll never have Doc Brown's "Mr. Fusion," like "Mr. Coffee."

    • @Killerkraft975
      @Killerkraft975 Рік тому +11

      For sure. I believe it will be done within the future but I don't really see it within my lifetime. Possibly due to the climate, running out of fossil fuels, there would be a demand into research within these fields around 2050 or 2060 but I highly doubt it would be commercialized until way after all of us in this comment section are gone.

    • @TheLtVoss
      @TheLtVoss Рік тому

      ​@@Killerkraft975 mhm im a 98 so with 20 years of building time I might see the first one but I would say it is reached earlyer about 2065 if thing go well with ai (technological singularity) and ITER, Wendelstein X7 etc but definitely not before that 😅

    • @ralalbatross
      @ralalbatross Рік тому +4

      If you'd asked me 10 years ago, I'd have said 'not a fucking chance we do fusion'.
      After a PhD in plasmas, and with about half a decade of watching computational sciences go leaps and bounds even beyond what we were doing, the computational stuff dpne these days are able to do in under an hour that would have taken multiple expensive experiments and 5 years to do.
      The plasma stream guys aren't getting as much benefit because the field geometries are much more complicated to simulate. This is because they need stable plasmas to achieve fusion - which they achieve mostly by using magnets to shout at it to tell it what to do, and the longer the stream the more instability potential you're seeing from the currents. You can't just wrap it around a big MHD sim and hope it pans out across the entire 6m radius. Even so, the tokamak guys are still doing work - just changes in field geometry and plasma heating achieved thirty fold gains in under a decade. ITER will almost certainly develop burning plasma just through sheer brute force, but its the engineering design that I am worried about.
      The pulsed guys though - there are literally dozens if not hundreds of ways to compress plasma into fusion states just using field geometries alone. ITER relative to these smaller startups has the other big problem - too many cooks. Way too many people deciding what is and isn't done inside the machine.
      On the pulsed stuff, I lost a bet over NIF never hitting any of their Qs, even the ones they invented. They did it within a few years of the next gen plasma dynamics codes, overcoming impossibly complex plasma instabilities to do it. They actually hit a thermal Q purely through experiment design and given NIFs lasers are decades old monstrosities it wouldn't surprise me if the holhraum designs improve to the point that even ICF becomes viable.
      Honestly? One or more of the startups might do it before 2030. My bets on Helion though at this point. Their design has so many engineering advantages to its general controllability and scalability as well as sufficient design width in how those systems can be used to actually pulse plasmas that im astonished it hasn't been done before.

    • @ralalbatross
      @ralalbatross Рік тому

      Incidentally. The first step was achieved using NIF. That was our nuclear reactor criticality moment using the least likely method of achieving fusion that, genuinely, most plasma physicists used as a butt of a joke.
      When NIF got ignition I was so surprised I was at the centre of a circle of shocked plasma physicists who couldn't believe it either and half of us checked the paper to make sure they weren't bullshitting. As far as I could tell, they haven't printed notable or meaningful retractions.
      That was the moment I realised the entire community had been sleeping on the real problem. Atoms are not complex things. Plasmas are. Modern computational processes are capable of performing experiments that stop experimentalists from going down blind alleys looking for nothing.
      NIF achieved fusion solely through process.
      If we can do it with ICF even in that absolutely idiotic NIF facility then more conventional methods are already working. We just haven't built them properly yet.

  • @Gary-zq3pz
    @Gary-zq3pz Рік тому +3

    We've got fusion power now. Controlling it is the problem, 'cause H-bombs put out a lot of energy. The trick is to get it in a steady flow rather than one big burst.

  • @khaled99069
    @khaled99069 3 роки тому +8

    I like this guy's humor, voice and way of presenting things

  • @snetmotnosrorb3946
    @snetmotnosrorb3946 2 роки тому +11

    Before watching this, I, as a layman, just having studied natural science in the equivalent of high school in my country and being a (home) computer enthusiast, was thinking that fusion energy might be viable in 2080. Considering we still don't have generation 4 fission power plants, and won't have before 2040, and we're just now building a full scale fusion plant with the hopes of producing net energy in the reaction alone, not electricity, I couldn't see how fusion would be even remotely close. With this video I doubt it's even possible, and it will definitely not happen in my lifetime. A bunch of major discoveries and improvements need to be made, and then they need to be perfected.

    • @alexanderstone9463
      @alexanderstone9463 2 роки тому +4

      It’s definitely worth watching his other videos on fusion if you haven’t already. He goes into much greater detail. He hasn’t yet made a video on which approach he thinks is mostly likely to work, but after watching all of his videos (but especially the last one) you will clearly see why he chose to say that it wouldn’t happen by 2040, as opposed to never.
      He mentioned Commonwealth Fusion at the end and admitted that he’s biased towards them. A lot of physicists and engineers are, as are investors, since they typically raise the most money out of all the startups. The reason for this is not just because they’re affiliated with MIT, or because their approach of using high temperature superconductors makes sense for magnetic confinement fusion, but because a lot of their tests and simulations have gone well. Their current project also has a very specific and narrowly defined purpose, which is always nice. With that in mind, their tokamak is designed to have the same performance as ITER at just 2% of the size. As he mentioned, the “Q value” performance of these devices improves as they increase in size. Therefore, it’s not such a stretch of the imagination to conclude that a reactor using YBCO superconductors (like SPARC does) that’s the size of ITER (which uses much weaker magnets), will increase the performance so much that fusion power will be made viable. Of course, there are uncertainties and problems with this scenario (watch the other videos and especially the last one to learn about them). But the developments in the field are compelling enough that if you asked this guy, he’d probably say that there is a reasonable chance that fusion power will exist by the end of the century (if not earlier).

    • @markazulislam5143
      @markazulislam5143 Рік тому

      What do you think about the prospects of fusion energy after US energy departments announcement and the new superconductor that just got invented (lk-99)

  • @puppable
    @puppable 3 роки тому +19

    I had a guy one time arguing at me that we should cancel infrastructure and green energy projects just to invest in fusion energy instead. Not entirely surprisingly, he seemed to have a lot of involvement with recognizable tech organizations.
    It's incredible the positions you have to try and respectfully debate against.

    • @cdgstuff7512
      @cdgstuff7512 3 роки тому +8

      There is a reasonable position that would appear close to that guy's position. Modern nuclear fission reactor designs are safe, scalable, variable , and a good coal and gas complete replacement. Unlike fusion reactor attempts, fission is practical and tested, although still held back by governments around the world. Concerning green energy projects, not all are an unchallenged good. Some installations damage a large area of previously untouched ground (solar) or use an unreasonable amount of unrecyclable material to be landfilled (wind). Most depend on gas to supplement the varying electric supply, making fossil fuel use an integral part of these green installations.

    • @proplejeezus6406
      @proplejeezus6406 3 роки тому +8

      @@cdgstuff7512 I don't wanna start an internet argument here because those are rarely productive, but dropping all environmental projects to focus on one, single, imperfect, solution is not a good idea.
      Don't get me wrong, I'm not anti fusion, but it is not a viable single solution. Between being hard to export to newly economically growing countries, the compounding danger of creating many many reactors, the lack of available, and importantly, geologically stable space to store waste products and the simple lack of enough resources, trained staff and public will to create enough nuclear power plants to power continents worth within the next 10-20 years (if we want to hit emission deadlines) makes it impossible.

    • @puppable
      @puppable 3 роки тому +3

      @@cdgstuff7512 I would say that wanting greater use of fission is a far cry from the sort of Enron Musk tech saviorism exhibited there, and a far more common position to hold at least nowadays. At any rate, fission has the very important distinction that it actually exists already.

    • @Elite7555
      @Elite7555 3 роки тому

      There is a lot of wishful thinking involved.

    • @davidfloren5339
      @davidfloren5339 3 роки тому

      In any policy argument, the underlying personal incentives that cause discursants to advocate for a particular position should never enter into the discussion, unless such incentives are produced as the intended outputs or outcomes of implementation of the policy being promoted. In short, the evaluation of, and decision to accept/reject, any proposed policy claim should be based on the merits without any consideration of who is paying the advocate to promote the policy or how much they're paying him or any similar factors which have nothing to do with the merits. But of course if one of the stated goals of the policy is the increased financial well being of all persons the policy states are intended to be financially benefitted thereby, then the advocate's personal financial incentive to support the policy might actually be indistinguishable from one of the merits of the policy on its face.

  • @MS-Patriot2
    @MS-Patriot2 6 місяців тому +11

    I enjoyed a fascinating visit to the UK’s Culham Centre for Fusion Energy. I did manage to cause a helmet fire when I asked one of the researchers how the energy produced would be harnessed to generate electricity.

    • @josh993654
      @josh993654 3 місяці тому +2

      In the end it's somehowcgoing to be Water heated to vapor to power some Turbines. Again.

    • @sundaydiver
      @sundaydiver Місяць тому

      What is a helmet fire…?

    • @MS-Patriot2
      @MS-Patriot2 Місяць тому

      @@sundaydiver when you can see someone simply struggling to make sense of what you just asked them. Kind of a brain meltdown.

  • @mrcreed6874
    @mrcreed6874 2 роки тому +53

    I'd be glad to hear more about the challenges and progress (so far) around fusion reactors. This has already been very insightful

    • @Toro_Da_Corsa
      @Toro_Da_Corsa 2 роки тому

      It is a waste of time. We already have nuclear power that works fine. The limits on it are political and sentimental

    • @VeganSemihCyprus33
      @VeganSemihCyprus33 Рік тому

      They have enslaved and fooled you 👉 The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

  • @avidodd26
    @avidodd26 2 роки тому +6

    I love how the thumbnail for this video implies that you are the reason we won't have fusion power by 2040

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  2 роки тому +3

      I like to joke that this is my hidden "Among Us" reference.

  • @jeromebloom_gripcraft6031
    @jeromebloom_gripcraft6031 3 роки тому +7

    Thanks for this. All very interesting and informative! Fingers crossed that there will be some major breakthroughs in the years to come because it would be a great shame if Fusion Power becomes a dead end!

  • @impguardwarhamer
    @impguardwarhamer Рік тому +8

    The thing is even if they do all this and do finally achieve net positive electricity, I fail to see how such mind bogglingly expensive high tech components that are needed in these facilities can ever be cost effective compared to renewables or fission.

    • @mikehimes7944
      @mikehimes7944 Рік тому

      Government subsidies obviously!

    • @shoazdon7000
      @shoazdon7000 6 місяців тому

      It will take time for that to happen

  • @lucofparis4819
    @lucofparis4819 2 роки тому +67

    A dramatically underrated channel! I already knew fusion was much harder than most folks would have others believe, yet remain virtually ignorant on the subject. It's always useful to find videos like this one to hammer home yet another round of nuclear physics into my thick head. 😁

    • @mattblack118
      @mattblack118 Рік тому +1

      Perhaps if they weren't climatards the channel would be better received.

    • @lucofparis4819
      @lucofparis4819 Рік тому

      @@mattblack118 Exactly how is this guy supposed to be a 'climatard'?

    • @mattblack118
      @mattblack118 Рік тому +1

      @@lucofparis4819 All people who try to sell CO2 as a major factor in the climate are climatards. A physicist should know better.

    • @lucofparis4819
      @lucofparis4819 Рік тому

      @@mattblack118 Regardless of who claims what, do you actually see that the climate is indeed changing for worse than it used to be?

    • @mattblack118
      @mattblack118 Рік тому +2

      @@lucofparis4819 No. The planet is clearly greening. Name 1 thing that is worse now than 100 years ago in terms of global climate.

  • @DemonetisedZone
    @DemonetisedZone 2 роки тому +6

    This is a great UA-cam video
    Taking away the hype and leaving the hard nosed reality of wtf is actually happening
    Thank you my friend, i have actually learned something 👍

  • @jonathanbrown9245
    @jonathanbrown9245 3 роки тому +59

    Me: "Even if you had all the money in place, you'd be lucky to build an airport in nine years"
    China: "ROFL"

    • @pedrolmlkzk
      @pedrolmlkzk 3 роки тому +15

      A safe airport*

    • @jonathanbush6197
      @jonathanbush6197 3 роки тому +9

      Build an airport in 3 years which lasts maybe 10 years?

    • @sharkb8754
      @sharkb8754 3 роки тому +24

      @@pedrolmlkzk Funny how you are just brainwashed to assume the Chinese built must have been unsafe lmao. They built a hospital in 10 days to treat Corona.. ITs called pre-fabricated construction mate.

    • @sharkb8754
      @sharkb8754 3 роки тому +1

      @@jonathanbush6197 Funny how you are just brainwashed to assume the Chinese built must have been unsafe lmao. They built a hospital in 10 days to treat Corona.. ITs called pre-fabricated construction mate.

    • @juanlu3958
      @juanlu3958 3 роки тому +20

      @@sharkb8754 10days death camp?

  • @MrNoneofthem
    @MrNoneofthem Рік тому +1

    Still the best summary video, approaching the problem from all angles. Even more relevant now that we are fed the clickbait news of ~1.5x gain, a.k.a. "ignition". And even though some outlets are talking about why it is not feasible with only 1.5x gain, still almost no one is talking about the challenges of breeding tritium, or why high energy neutrons are still a nuclear hazard.

    • @jRoy7
      @jRoy7 Рік тому

      This is what I like about Helion's approach. No ignition needed, He3 instead of tritium for fuel, and direct electricity generation without the thermal/steam intermediate steps.

  • @ryanbrown982
    @ryanbrown982 3 роки тому +14

    I'd love to see a follow-up on p+B reactions. They have their own hangups, but they nicely get around (mostly) the excess neutron problem, and they result in high energy charged helium nuclei, which allows for direct electricity capture. That (hypothetically) gets you up to in the ~70% energy capture range instead of the ~50% with a thermal turbine generator.

    • @russhamilton3800
      @russhamilton3800 3 роки тому

      If you think reaching Q1 is difficult with tritium and deuterium the P+B will really make it hard to get any J(oules)...

  • @davidgriffiths7696
    @davidgriffiths7696 3 роки тому +16

    One of those occasional gems to be found on Utube. There could hardly be a more important question in respect of the inability of our civilisation to use energy conservatively enough to avoid increasing energy shortfalls and risk. This documentary explains why fusion generated electricity has always been 30 years away, as well as explaining some for me new concepts such as tritium reproduction rate, another challenge which may prove insurmountable. Subscribed and looking forward to more detail regarding engineering and fusion energy budgeting prospects.👍

  • @cafemorakanu2535
    @cafemorakanu2535 3 роки тому +5

    Its always good to see a video that backed up by good researches and knowledge. This technology is certainly much harder to be perfected and took longer than previously thought, but I always believe that as long as if there are progresses, we are on the right way, and every failure we discovered along the way will make the tech safer.

    • @lucasrem1870
      @lucasrem1870 2 роки тому

      Corruption that is, Merkel, Putin, Communist skum, Allah!
      Shell Exxon BP, we love dirty people in power!

  • @jje984
    @jje984 Рік тому +4

    It seems to me we ought to spend this time and money making fission reactors even better. That proven technology can be made even better and safer with more R&D. And we know it can be used to make commercially viable electricity.

    • @aquanano1
      @aquanano1 Місяць тому

      Indeed. Besides, tehnology is now mature enough for this, and more importantly we have both the experience of 3 major disasters,. No kidding here, as we humans, as a specief, seem to learn only from such events...

    • @cam609lee
      @cam609lee Місяць тому

      Actually we should just keep burning fossil fuels and also fool around with wind/solar. Fission is so so dangerous. Nuclear fusion will be here in a year or so.
      (JK)

  • @willis936
    @willis936 3 роки тому +5

    I just did a two year stint as an engineer on a stellarator. I learned a lot and this summary is the best lay of the land crash course I've seen. It's what it feels like to have lunch and drinks conversations with the people who really build these things. The talks to the public lose so much of the finer points but this video shows that it's needless. Great stuff.

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  3 роки тому +1

      To be clear, I did not say, and nor do I think that it will never be possible. I only wanted to be realistic about startup predictions.

    • @willis936
      @willis936 3 роки тому

      @@ImprobableMatter I don't think it's improbable either. The timeline is often oversold. Justifying the investment to society is tricky when everyone is panicked about climate change over the next 50 years. No one considers the world after that. Fusion also has a public perception deficit from a series of charlatans overselling their pseudoscience. It's hard to overcome these things but they need to be faced.

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  3 роки тому +3

      @@willis936 Woops, that comment was my response to someone else. Apparently something gets messed up when I decide to fire off lots of replies.
      I wanted to say that I gave your channel a sub and I intend to have a simple video out comparing stellarators and tokamaks soon. Will also try to record a conversation with my friend working on W7-X.

    • @maikol6851
      @maikol6851 Рік тому +1

      @@ImprobableMatter Will you still do this? :D

    • @ImprobableMatter
      @ImprobableMatter  Рік тому +1

      @@maikol6851 I have multiple videos out about fusion. Did not manage to get in touch with my friend.

  • @alyssahayes268
    @alyssahayes268 2 роки тому +11

    Now THAT'S what I call good science communication

  • @tomhman6441
    @tomhman6441 3 роки тому +7

    I worked forPrinceton University’s fusion project for 43 years. I was a great and interesting place to work. We had success and I hope for more advancements in fusion science.

  • @Pepsimaximo1
    @Pepsimaximo1 5 місяців тому

    great video. thanks for giving such a level-headed and well-cited breakdown of the current state of fusion energy

  • @Joe-xq3zu
    @Joe-xq3zu 3 роки тому +10

    I've said this before, but as the years have gone by and I learn more about the subject the more I become disenchanted with the endless fantastical promises that fusion will somehow solve all our energy and pollution problems. At this point it feels more like the religion of fusion than any kind of concrete reality.

    • @talltroll7092
      @talltroll7092 2 роки тому

      Viable fusion really will live up to the promises. The problem is learning to get from where we are to viable fusion. Turns out it's hard to replicate the function of a star with almost no star

  • @davidthompson59
    @davidthompson59 3 роки тому +48

    Very interesting, if slightly depressing.
    As you mentioned, since I was old enough to understand the difference between fission and fusion, fusion power has always seemed to be 30 years away. That was in my teens and I am now in my 60's. It's beginning to look like, even if the 30 year time scale is met, I'm unlikely to live long enough to see it. It's a shame. I would love to see the effect that this technology, which promises almost unlimited power, would have on the human race. :-(

    • @londonspade5896
      @londonspade5896 2 роки тому +8

      Eat your veggies

    • @mithrandirthegrey7644
      @mithrandirthegrey7644 2 роки тому

      Civilization will probably collapse before we have it.

    • @ElVecinoSebas
      @ElVecinoSebas 2 роки тому

      Did you see Copernicous proyect? They will built large scale reactor by 2025, you may see it working!! Will we wait remember to eat less (or not at all) meat :) (to avoid circulatory problems and reduce environmental impacts)

    • @mithrandirthegrey7644
      @mithrandirthegrey7644 2 роки тому

      @@ElVecinoSebas
      - own nothing
      - live in a shoebox
      - eat the bugs
      "do it for the environment"

    • @ElVecinoSebas
      @ElVecinoSebas 2 роки тому +2

      @@mithrandirthegrey7644 Good ideas. But, if that is what you tell yourself to do nothing about the climat crisis, let me tell you that ANY small action, any change we do in our daylylife, counts.
      If we want to succeed and stop global warming, we should think: we are not alone in our actions (even if in our local context, it seems so, world if full of people making changes at all levels (we could seek that for motivation). We should do what is in our hands to do (i.e. buy *if* we really need to, from the best available responsible seller, do what ever improvement in our company or workplace, and yes, eat less to no meat, if posible...).
      Good luck.

  • @gyrogearloose1345
    @gyrogearloose1345 2 роки тому +21

    Brilliant! I really liked this. Thorough science and engineering analysis, WITH equal consideration towards Human values. AND exposé of the financial operators conning their clueless investors in the guise of revolutionary scientists.
    AS WELL the long list of references. Altogether a powerful and valuable piece of work. Thank you!

  • @rohinh9921
    @rohinh9921 Рік тому +8

    This aged well

  • @Meitti
    @Meitti 2 роки тому +60

    "Commercially viable" seems to always be the tricky part. Even with fission plants while we cracked the code and made them actually viable, new plants are still very expensive to construct so a lot of governments are hesitant. While finnish Olkiluoto has finally been finished and its working just fine, it was an embarrassing nightmare project of constant problems and delays for over a decade.

    • @samusaran13372
      @samusaran13372 2 роки тому +2

      But that power plant will pay for itself in the long run, just like every other power plant.

    • @manuxx3543
      @manuxx3543 2 роки тому +3

      France actually developped bottom of the sea-hydroelectric generator that works with maritime crurent
      The tech worked, but the governement due to EU legislation didnt have the right to assist on the market to bring down the cost, so nobody buyed it because it was way way to expensive
      And the company shut down/tech was abandonned for now

    • @craigcarmichael5748
      @craigcarmichael5748 2 роки тому +6

      Solar PV became more cost effective per MWH for new power plants than nuclear in 2010. Since then solar PV costs have dropped down by, what, 2/3? And totally scalable -- you can even do it individually, for yourself. I have 18 solar panels that make 3x more power annually than my electric car uses, tho only maybe 30% of my total use. I'm not in a great climate for solar, and that's without going all-out by any means -- there's lots more room on my roof. The issues and costs with adopting it on any scale seem trivial compared to fusion.

    • @Meitti
      @Meitti 2 роки тому +9

      @@craigcarmichael5748 Solar power is unreliable. Its not always sunny. Especially in Finland where most of the year is spent in darkness. The closer you get to equator, better solar panels become but they are not very effective the closer you get to the Arctic circle or Antarctic. Its a great auxiliary to get cheap extra energy every once in a while but you cannot rely on it as the primary energy source.

    • @craigcarmichael5748
      @craigcarmichael5748 2 роки тому

      @@Meitti Too true. I'm at just 53 deg. north (Haida Gwaii BC) and I get lots in summer but very very little in winter. (The tree shadows cover everything.) Storing energy overnight is one thing, storing it for months is quite another.
      More promising for experimenters: now I think I know how Nikola Tesla got free electricity from his Tesla Coils, while after him they have only been used for fancy displays of ionizing air, "lightning". Everyone grounds the bottom of the secondary coil. That's shorting out the free energy to ground. (It comes from the recently discovered "high energy" or HE band 1000 times higher frequency and energy than gamma rays - most electromagnetic spectrum charts still don't even show it - or the new VHE band even farther up.) Tesla must have connected the bank of light bulbs between the bottom of the secondary and the ground. One instruction for making a Tesla Coil says "Don't ground the secondary to your electrical system ground. It will fry everything in the house." That kind of energy isn't just coming from the power supply to the coil.

  • @mencken8
    @mencken8 3 роки тому +13

    A bunch of people won’t like this video, because it’s not what they want to hear, any more than they want to hear that solar and wind power won’t make our energy problems go away, either.

    • @dorasmuris
      @dorasmuris 2 роки тому +1

      Advancements in agriculture do not make our food problems go away. Both ideas are progress towards an unending development goal.

  • @Krmpfpks
    @Krmpfpks 3 роки тому +78

    Please think about covering the stellarator approach, in my layman’s understanding it is similar to the tokamak in principle and in backing by thorough scientific evaluation but it could solve some of the tokamaks problems you did not mention in this video. There is also a test reactor here in Germany (Wendelstein 7-X) that seems to be on track to prove the feasibility of this approach soon (maybe already in 2022).

    • @GrimK77
      @GrimK77 3 роки тому +8

      True that. 7-X Wendelstein solves issue of uneven plasma concentration that results in thermal stress on central part of spherical tokamaks. Easier to cool.

    • @Krmpfpks
      @Krmpfpks 3 роки тому +13

      @@GrimK77 And I also read it doesn’t need a pulsed magnetic field and hence is easier to operate. W7-X is not designed to ever produce energy, it is to small to achieve that. But last year they achieved fusion and next year they want to show 30 minutes of continuous plasma with fusion. That would be quite a feat and would certainly make the stellarator the best design to scale up. We will see if the tokamak can solve its problems earlier, but given the political overhead it’s unlikely.

    • @MyKharli
      @MyKharli 3 роки тому +2

      Your still stuck with the problem of having to contain 200million deg c and heat water to steam in a reliable efficient way with super cooled magnets all in the mix..crazy or what !

    • @wilurbean
      @wilurbean 3 роки тому +11

      @@MyKharli not really. Neutrons should go through magnets no problem and water is the best neutron catcher.
      But you do basically need s fission plant to dedicate its output to starting a really power reactor, which is ironic

    • @Krmpfpks
      @Krmpfpks 3 роки тому +4

      @@MyKharli yes, it would be a remarkable achievement. The tokamak is the most researched design to be able to achieve that and it still has a lot of problems to solve. The stellarator is similar to a tokamak but instead of using a pulsed magnetic field it uses a static but curled up magnetic field. These are the only two designs with a decent chance of scaling up to commercial use and good scientific backing. I hope they get it to work in my lifetime.

  • @punditgi
    @punditgi Рік тому +2

    Excellent video! More, please! 😊

  • @JoeLambert1000
    @JoeLambert1000 3 роки тому +5

    A very serious, interesting contribution to the fusion challenge.

  • @andrewlucas6214
    @andrewlucas6214 3 роки тому +8

    I’d like to see a program like this on thorium and it’s potential.

  • @breakablec
    @breakablec 3 роки тому +12

    Justified criticism in any scientific area including fusion is appreciated, however I am willing to bet a non-trivial amount of money that fusion will put watts on the grid by end of 2040. They might not have commercial power plants and they might cut some corners but I am certain of this as long as they can get the relevant funding which a lot of approaches have. I support all approaches to fusion as long as they use the scientific method and I hope for tighter collaboration in the fusion community going forward, including peer review and criticism.

    • @MauryMarkowitz
      @MauryMarkowitz 3 роки тому

      I'll take that bet. How much and who will hold it?

    • @breakablec
      @breakablec 3 роки тому

      @@MauryMarkowitz 1000 USD. I can either do it on something like playwager or can ask betrair exchange to set something up for higher profile. What odds you expect 50/50?

    • @timlash
      @timlash 3 роки тому +1

      @@breakablec Love it! If I weren't so old I'd match that $1K. But I'll probably need it for incontinent products soon enough.

    • @AndDiracisHisProphet
      @AndDiracisHisProphet 3 роки тому

      @@breakablec you guys have to really be clear, though. by "by end of 2040" do you mean the end of the YEAR 2040? or by end of the deacde, so 2049?

    • @breakablec
      @breakablec 3 роки тому

      @@AndDiracisHisProphet I think I would go for year 2040, 49 is too guaranteed in my mind as even DEMO should put watts on grid by 2048 barring further delays

  • @francesco5254
    @francesco5254 Місяць тому

    Why didn't I discover this channel before, it's amazing

  • @roamingtiger
    @roamingtiger 3 роки тому +6

    Funny, MIT recently announced they have achieved a “major breakthrough” in nuclear fusion. If you read through it the reactor has yet to be built and tested.

    • @roamingtiger
      @roamingtiger 3 роки тому +3

      @@goldeternal ah you must be having fun at the beach :)

  • @sciencegeekgrandpa8
    @sciencegeekgrandpa8 3 роки тому +6

    I think the thoroughness of your approach would be welcome in a video about molten salt reactors, especially thorium-fueled ones.

  • @boruta1034
    @boruta1034 Рік тому +4

    This video was very useful to understand recent breakthrough.

  • @MrSoumyaDutta
    @MrSoumyaDutta Рік тому

    Thanks, very helpful in cutting thru the unrealistic claims of startups like He**** etc.