BREAKING: The FED Pauses Rates, Housing Declines, Recession Cancelled
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
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THE NOVEMBER RATE HIKE:
There is no rate hike for the month of November. Just few days ago, Jerome Powell stated that “Financial conditions have tightened significantly in recent months…we remain attentive to these developments because persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy." The Federal Reserve has also admitted that “We know that we’re on an unsustainable path fiscally.”
Jerome Powell continued to reiterate that they’re taking a “wait-and-see” approach to upcoming rate hikes and they’ll prepared to adjust as needed in the future. It’s also worth noting that there’s a “lag effect” to raising interest rates, where the full effect won’t be truly felt for 6-18 months after the final rate hike; the AVERAGE delay is 11 months.
THE STOCK MARKET:
Here in the United States, we typically have this belief that - over the long term - stocks go higher. It’s shown that a 20-year holding period has never ONCE lost money. Statistically, this has proven to be true going back all the way to 1872 - but, there is a hidden risk: Throughout most of the world, there have been a variety of instances where the stock market has LOST money over a 20-year period.
According to MarketSentiment, since 1890 - once you add inflation to the mix - there’s a 1.2% chance of losing buying power over a 30-year horizon. However, this doesn’t account for the fact that we only have 130 years' worth of data to pick from, and the United States could be suffering from survivorship bias, where we only see the data because it’s worked. Once we zoom out into other global markets, according to this report, there is a 9% chance that a Japan-like event could happen here, in the United States, at some point in the future.
THE HOUSING MARKET:
As of last week, mortgage rates hit the 8% mark, which is a level that we haven’t seen since 2000. This means that monthly payments are now 70% HIGHER than they were just two years ago, when mortgage rates were 3%. This combination has NOW led to 99% of the United States being “unaffordable” for the Average American who makes $71,000 per year - and this price-to-income ratio is now the worst its been since 1984.
In terms of where this could go in the next year, Zillow believes that home prices will see another 2.1% increase through September of 2024. In addition to that, Morgan Stanley revised their forecast and now believes that home prices could rise another 5% year-over-year given how many sellers are reluctant to let go of their existing mortgage.
A managing director at Goldman Sachs also went on record to say that, “Absent any negative shocks to the broader economy that would either boost the excess supply of homes on the market or fuel an uptick in unemployment, we continue to expect home prices to rise at a slow pace,” with his estimate that we’ll see a 3.5% increase by the end of 2024.
Because of that, I think it’s more important than ever to keep your expenses low, save as much as you can, ensure that you have the means to keep a steady income throughout the next 1-2 years - and no matter what...subscribe if you haven’t done that already ;)
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In the USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.
I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than $600k within just a year, and I've entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.
I've remained in touch with a financial analyst since the start of my business. Amid today's dynamic market, the key difficulty is pinpointing the right time to buy or sell when dealing with trending stocks - a seemingly simple task but challenging in reality. My portfolio has grown by more than $600k within just a year, and I've entrusted my advisor with the task of determining entry and exit points.
@@StellaMaris-lv2uq Could you guide me on how to get in touch with your advisor? My funds are being eroded by inflation, and I'm seeking a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize them.
Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. *Camille Alicia Garcia* is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
Thank you for the information. I conducted my own research and your advisor appears to be highly skilled and knowledgeable. I've sent her an email and arranged a phone call. Her expertise is impressive, and I'm eagerly anticipating our conversation.
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Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZZc2A_n7CPYeeVNCz_tmaiVYiEr5iU90oUta2tViNKA/edit?usp=sharing
It's like we're being attacked from within the government and being forced into a depression designed to collapse the United States how many millions of illegals have they brought here with United States tax dollars since Obama's first term
We can thank Biden for this 🫡
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Something to consider: new homes are usually made horribly cheaply, so a lot of people prefer older homes which aren't as available as new construction. Would I rather have a 2-story house made of 6x6s and 2x6s, or almost entirely out of 2x4s "stick house"?
What is warren buffett doing right now when all of these things are going on ?
A 200k house in 2020 is now up to 350k for that same house. Northwest Arkansas here.
Citizens are spending a lot of money because everything costs so damn much 😂
Good to know what's going on. As a kid, I thought everyone always knew what was going on. Now, I realize most people don't know, and don't care to research. Keeping the new generation informed.
You got it!
Absolutely. Well said. A shame it's not taught in schools. I'm a little pissed I was never taught this. At least what a Fed funds rate is.
@@TG5879me too! I’ve learned more after college than I did in all my years in school. There’s an endless list of things I can’t believe nobody ever told us. Good and bad things. It blows my mind the stuff they leave out. And I’m making a serious effort to make sure my son has a complete different experience. Which should be easier for him than it was for me. After all, we have the internet now, and it’s pretty fast too.
@@TG5879 schools quite literally mostly only teach useless crap.
@@TG5879 They don't even teach you how to do taxes, balance a check book, or deal with any real life complexities that are essential. All of the most important things are conveniently left out, and then people wonder why kids become adults who can't function in this complex world we live in now.
My current home is become unaffordable with the increase in property taxes , home insurance and the HOA.
I don't watch too many longer videos, even less educational ones on finance, you have amazing content sir.
I remember in 2007 when I was working in real estate seeing people buy homes new from builders with the intention of selling before close of escrow to a new buyer for profit. The crash was so brutal and fast that I remember seeing a lot of these units foreclosed on with the builder plastic still on the carpet.
Most people find it difficult to handle a fall since they are used to bull markets, but if you know where to look and how to maneuver, you can make a size-able profit. Depending on how you intend to enter and exit, yes.
The enduring US stock market bull run evokes a mix of fear and excitement, presenting opportunities with insight, resulting in $780k gains in the past ten months, utilizing a portfolio advisor for a well-defined strategy.
@@hunter-bourke21 My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor.
Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. *Mary Onita Wier* is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
This is useful information; I copied her full name and pasted it into my browser; her website popped up immediately and her qualifications are excellent; thanks for sharing.
This is the time we should stand up to govt and demand they quit spending more than we have. We just sig back and let it happen.
we're already in a recession...they just decided to redefine it
💯💯💯💯💯
I've been thinking the same thing and many people have not caught on to this, even most financial UA-cam creators. A rather brilliant idea to reduce the impact and damage caused by panic. IF people keep thinking that a recession is coming but not here yet, they will likely keep spending will being cautious rather than stopping instantly.
how in the hell are we in a recession when GDP was @4.7 🤣
I mean, it isn't a recession no matter how you slice it. Which is the scary part
Comon they are trying to make it sweet sloppy 😂
Is the rise in spending not also due to the spike in prices of everything? I am not buying more than usual but spending more due to prices going so high. So, the economic "growth" is more that everyone is doing something similar. I'd imagine.
Definitely not cancelled. A former high school classmate was laid off from his job of 15 years. He was responsible for many patents which his company owns so even a valuable worker was laid off. My brother was laid off as a scientist with many scientific papers published under his name. Lay offs are happening at Charles Scwabb. Yeah those are the tell tale signs of a recession. The Fed can't delay the inevitable.
TLDR recession is happening because few of my friends were laid off. 😅
Graham just summarized this with Richcession
The gov just keeps ignoring and changing the definition we have met the requirements
I was affected at Schwab indirectly. Half my team was let go on Monday. It's rough out there.
probably a rolling recession. Industries are facing layoffs one at a time. Last year was tech this year biotech and next year AEC market. Maybe not a defined recession but not that bad either.
I call absolute BS on the data out there today and also keep in mind how delayed the data is. It doesn’t take a genius to see something is about to break
Yellen and Biden got this under control don't worry 😊
@@mr.monitor. 😂
@@mr.monitor. are they dating?, 🤣😂😅
@@mr.monitor.🤣
The outlook is even more stark when you consider the *median* US income, which is somewhere between $30 and $40k I believe.
30-40k is considered lower middle in the us
@@Fo4assaultriflefan92working poor in my opinion
I don't usually watch videos like this but I have to tell you you are so very informative and I learned a lot of things that I didn't know! Thank you Graham 🙏
I truly appreciate all the hard work and research Stephan gathers to put out valuable information.
I appreciate that!
Just like when he endorsed FTX
😮
Lol dang
I can tell you right now we are seeing massive sales decline and a failure to meet expectations for the early holiday sales. I work at a grocery store chain here in CA. Hours are getting cut across the board. Keep hearing from management just about every week about more payroll cuts. This is going to get ugly.
Every year folks panic, every year it's not a big deal. This is going to be the same.
Everyone needs groceries…
Sounds pretty normal and not unexpected. Stop fear mongering.
@@G0twoodstop normalizing unhealthy markets. Both dooming and polishing turds are bad.
@@darkriku12healthy markets move in cycles
Recession is not cancelled, it's coming and coming fast.
That’s what she said!
Would limiting home ownership to US citizens redirect foreign investment to other markets?
Why would you want to limit investment? We have a record low vacancy rate. Home builders are not building because no one wants to invest in the current climate. We need more housing. What does limiting investment do to solve the supply demand imbalance or record vacancy rate?
@@darthbumblebee7310 Because allowing foreigners to own land in our country fuels the increasing rate of serfs in the country. I don't consider foreigners turning a profit on our land and spending it overseas to be a productive use of such a limited resource.
I am not against foreign investment but they should not be allowed to manipulate the housing market where an average person who can't even afford a simple house for his/her family. I know personally some rich people just buy houses in US rent them out and leave the country. I think it's just morally wrong. Again, not against foreign investment.
@@darthbumblebee7310 We don’t need more housing, though. There are empty properties *everywhere* !
BLACKROCK!!!
The GDP numbers are so very inflated. There is no possible way that is correct.
Loan buydowns are price reductions, the crash could be gnarly.
The process of lower & raising rates is part of the reason we are in this mess in the first place and it vicious cycle to keep repeating. Interest rates should have always stayed somewhat high so inflation aka price gouging didn't hit us as hard. The minimum wage should be like $20 right now if it kept up with the rate of production in our economy. It's only going to get worse from here.
We are in this mess because of the trillions of dollars this administration dumped into the economy and the attack on the fossil fuel industry raising rates is the only way to curb inflation. You are correct about rates being too low for to long under Obama, it also contributed. Also there shouldn’t be a minimum wage, it only drives up the cost of goods
Inflation sint price gouging. It is a telfe tion of the monetary supply and the availability of capital. No one charges higher prices for increased profit long term unless their is demand to do som and that demand has been created by flushing the economy with cash. This both comes from free checks to individuals from the government, as well grants and cheap loans to mega corps. It isn't greed that has driven inflation. It is the belief that money is what the economy really is, instead of the goods produced and traded within it.
Graham, One thing that you have to keep in mind is Japan's population & the direction that it has been going.
After FTX, I don't trust a single advertiser you promote. However, I do still love your content.
Great summary. The lag graphic is really interesting.
Agreed!
A 5% steady return from the bank and U.S. securities sounds better to me instead of worring about losing your money if the stock market falls.
That doesn’t beat inflation. You need assets growing at least 10-12 percent to stay above water. 2,3,4 percent inflation is fake data Gov. Shows. It’s actually a lot higher the Gov. tells everyone.
This is a valid strategy in the book Poor Charlie's Almanac
A munger book?
That’s nice when inflation is higher.
Certainly better than get 0.10 cents in a normal savings account. But purchasing bonds vs stocks to me is more about your time horizon and the fact many stocks pay back dividends and have growth overtime. A 5 percent appreciate is stuck at that with no reinvestment of dividends and no potential for any more appreciation with a bond. Nothing wrong with stocks or bonds in most cases if you do your own research and dont go in blind. I think both are valuable, its a a matter of how much risk you feel like taking or not too.
Recession canceled. Depression initiated. Meh.
CDs are 5-6% from 6-12 months. You have money....put it there. Wait for the crash....and throw it in the stock market. Or just find a good bank account interests at 4.35% like I did. (And a $200 cash bonus)
Cape Coral FL is still building like CRAZY!!! Mostly because New York and Chicago continue to move the wrong direction. Massive new apartment complexes, and houses everywhere.
GDP growth now still falls in line with past recessions where we didn't see GDP fall until many months after rates were paused.
For all my military people, if you want to buy a house, you can use your VA loan and look for people selling their current loan. For example, I bought my current house in 2020 with a 2.3% rate, I can sell my house and let someone else using the VA loan assume my rate. The only catch is, you have to have the cash to pay back the sellers equity. It's a good deal though, I know several people who have bought and sold using this method to get out of these ridiculous interest rates.
Dam, this was really good. I had to watch this twice to let it all soak with the info. Thanks
Hey Graham thanks for the great info. Time to dial in the budget!!
If you don’t think we are already in a recession then go walk around your neighborhood and see all the for sale properties that just keep accumulating. I think we now all know multiple friends who have been laid off as well as prices only continue to soar. It’s pretty damn obvious between these qualitative factors and the inverted yield curve that we are headed for a recession. Honestly, it’s the healthiest thing for our economy right now and it will give the younger generations an opportunity to finally build wealth.
That’s being optimistic. Not reality. Reality is if business is down then business are going lean. Meaning if you aren’t providing big value to company you are cut. Entry level ppl “young adults” are having trouble getting work. So no wealth being built. Competition is brute so your own business is not smart especially in this current economy.
@@andrewgarcia8415 I’m talking about wealth creation through being able to buy depreciated assets such as real estate. If you aren’t a core part of your company that’s more on you and your personal situation.
They may say for sale but people still can't afford them. Who is buying it all up and keeping the prices high? Blackrock? I think there's still a lot of people who are doing well financially. The poor are in a recession the rich and upper middle are not.
@@rodiculous9464 It’s arguably the reverse. White color workers are the ones seeing the most job cuts currently. Also inventory is not even being bought up by investors where I live. It just continues to accumulate. That will have a downward pull on prices within the next several months.
If rates begin to fall expect the stock market to soar causing a reverse crash.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, and other powerful nations waking up to trade in their own currencies. Good thing is, a lot of people still turn to the Dollar because of the safety is somehow assures. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of these factors and more. Where else can we keep our money?
Well, I suggest you make a diversification plan because it's been harder to build a good portfolio that stays afloat since COVID. Personally, I garner knowledge from a brokerage Adviser whom I work with, and I've actually made over $350K with their help since February. Very effective defensive strategies are used to protect my portfolio and make profits despite the ups and downs.
My financial advisor is ‘’Colleen Rose Mccaffery’’ I found her on an interview where she was featured Afterwards I reached out to her on her webpage. she has since then provided me with entry and exit points in securities I focus on.
I think they are all trying to avoid the blame for a financial crash. In the past, they may have been trying to soften the landing, but now it won't be soft.
This is dangerous keep inflation higher
So when is this recession gonna hit?
Interest rates should push stocks down it just takes some time, or maybe we already had that happen in 2022, but rates are still high? This is confusing
That was a great video. I really appreciate it.
You said “Richcession” like I say “Worcestershire” 😂
"Other economists point out that the economy doesn't face the types of dangerous imbalances or events that have ignited some recent recessions, such as the stock market bubble in 2001"
"I do think it's important to keep in mind that as of right now only seven stocks are holding up the index and that would be apple Google Amazon Microsoft meta Nvidia and Tesla. In fact, an equity strategist Bank of America calculated these seven companies as currently making up 30% to the S&P 500's total market cap."
Yep, a handful of tech stocks with insane P/E holding up the entire market, nothing like the 2001 bubble at all...🙃
Exactly. This is the AI Bubble of 2023
“what’s up graham it’s guys here” 😂
I feel like we are just postponing the inevitable
maybe!
Respect for the Josh Peck quote haha! Love how you and Andrei keep me entertained!
@@RealSirStephenGardner__ review of what.
I saw some interesting data that showed that wages for non-college degree folk are at higher levels now than pre-covid, while more educated workers are still a bit below pre-covid levels.
Glad I subscribed keep doing what your doing sir!!
Excellent video Graham…1st one in a very long time
It's quite simple why rates are climbing with rising imports and falling exports, the FED is obviously to be blamed for banking crisis. Something will eventually break if they keep the quantitative tightening and higher interest rates. Is this really a good time to have some savings in stocks?
first austerity, then brexit, now widespread bank failures. .always do your own research & speak to a license advisor before thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
this is incredible! how can I vet your advisor, mind sharing info, if you please?
Finding financial advisors like Sharon Lee Peoples who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Graham thanks for the quick post ! I’ve been watching you since the ¢20 coffee ☕️ Appreciate you brother
You got it!! :) Thanks so much!
A vacancy tax would correct the housing market quickly.
Communism
Your Josh Peck quote made me giggle, and that’s why I liked your vid
I had to buy a car in Atlanta, ga this year there’s nothing worse than signing bullshit. Idk what’s worse a high interest rate and ridiculous taxes, being car less, or car rentals.
Keep Blackstone etc out of Residential housing market!,
I'm so glad I had the chance to close on my house in June/2022. The next week the interest rate when up.
Thanks for all the replies during the first week until a few years into the channel Graham Stephan!
What’s up guys it’s gram here. Yes that’s what my brains says
Hey Graham
Another awesome video Graham!!!!
Thanks again!
But how could there be a recession is the fed keeps changing the definition 😅😂😂😂
Risk premium is a really interesting indicator! I have not seen anyone bring this up before.
Thank you for the updates
you got it!
The main reason the GDP grew is bcuzz the government counted its new spending on defense contracts towards its GDP. Which is quite misleading.
Most countries find ways to inflate their GDP
Given that most economists are now predicting oil prices will reach $120/barrel given that the war situation may be expanding (some are predicting $150/barrel) inflation will be growing. Besides diversification of stocks, dividend paying stocks are a good bet especially if you keep them long term against today's extreme market fluctuations.
Year-over-year inflation stood at 6.5% in December 2022-the lowest that figure has been in more than a year. Inflation was in line with what economists expected and gave many of them a reason to believe that the peak of inflation may be behind us. I have approximately $150k stagnant in my portfolio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are very well informed and equipped. I've seen folks amass up to $800K amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favourable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
Yep great question and that’s always the one - where would you rather be if you have an option. Personally I’m always invested aside from a small emergency fund. Financial-market for me seem the only way forward with my long time horizon (accrued almost $1.4m in gains since 2020 ) but if you don’t have that fortune of time it’s a tough market out there almost nowhere feels safe! . Just know the risk you're comfortable with . Mistake is expensive
well a million in profit is a nice milestone, how did you achieve that? I guess you have a proven trading strategy that you've spent a lot on please share more info !! and YES I dont want to make
Lol, I began with an Advisor by name Camille Anne Hector. She has a large following and is easily found online. She’s sec verified and an ISDA member. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my portfolio and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.
I am only 23 years old with minimal savings. Do you think its worth looking into an advisor at such an age?
Liked! Thanks for the update!
Thanks for watching!
"Whats up Graham, its guys here" got me.
recession canceled?... ya right and im the next prez.
Love your videos like how you used to promote ftx
Recessions happen whether we rig for economic success or not. The *WHOLE* point of "unsustainable" is that the tab will get called much more aggressively later on.
Tell me when they cancel taxes
:'(
How much would something like that affect the rest of the world?
Has gram done any videos on infinite banking/using life insurance?
I haven't done that yet, maybe one day!
Graham, You are awesome!
I appreciate that!
T Y 4 The Update
Great information,Thank you!
lol your famous opening life line whats up Graham! it's guys here hahahahahahaha but either way love the vids keep up the good work!!
alot of people are spending cause they cant afford to save everything is to expensive and honestly i wouldnt be supprised if more then 50% of americans become homeless soon or start starving before someone truly takes action and gets this under control
the only thing holding up the market is tech. Nobody wants to get left behind and if you aren't trying to learn to catch up or surpass the times then you are likely the one this is a dire warning for.
Not cancelled at all . The rate stays high, not coming down so it is still coming if not already here disguised in normality. Home prices won't go up any higher.
How do you diversify when everything is going to crap
hand movements
These housing prices are through the roof now. Somethings gotta give.
😂😂 he said "what's up Graham it's guys here"😂😂
;)
Everytime I watch your videos I can concentrate fully because your casting a spell on me with your hands flailing around the whole time lol
Thanks so much.
My retirement account has gone sideways since December 2021. It was just starting to increase again in May, June, and July and then we got hit with the bleeding of August, September, October. I'm pouring money into the damn account and its been two years and the value is barely any higher. I need a long, long rally, not a freaking market crash. And millions of other Americans do too.
Just keep buying good stuff,eventually it will work out.
Also try adding some things that pay dividends.
Same here
Time to invest in gold and silver!
No such thing as a "soft landing".
Thanks for the insight
Thank you for the philosophical approach. People need to understand what Cardano represents.vty!
That is a beautiful watch! What brand/model is it?
Zenith El Primero
There are no new houses in Los Angeles, no empty lots.
Can you make a video about banks and credit unions that would help a lot of people they’re trying to build their credit
Could it be because prices got goods have multiplied? Making it seem like we're spending more, because we are, but not getting more.
Simply continued and increasing printing of money will increase inflation.
Grahm do you think the excessive government spending is a factor in the gdp growth?
Wow! Great vid man!
Thanks!!
What about personal debt, credit card debt, auto loan debt, and school debt being at an all-time high? How does this contribute to all of this? What about auto and credit card loans defaulting at an all-time high and what this means?
2:36 lol
I'm looking at the housing market like a sports team thats very clearly at the end of their contention window: time for a rebuild. Let's absolutely tank for a few years and get some draft picks built up.