RUSSIAN $50 Billion Shadow Fleet Shutdown
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- Опубліковано 14 жов 2024
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The G7 introduced an OIL PRICE CAP of $60 per barrel of crude in December 2022. The terms of this ban place an obligation on shipping and insurance companies to ensure that Russia did not sell oil for more than this price. However Russia have been EVADING these Sanctions by using a fleet of DARK & GRAY TANKERS. Many of these tankers are Old and decrepit and there is a serious risk of an ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER occurring. It has now been announced that the West is Closing its Waters to these vessels aimed at cutting off $50 Billion of revenue for Russia. In this video I provide more details and discuss the issue in more detail.
No need for CHAPTER as this is a short one!
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You are one of the few individuals who can speak extemporaneously without verbal pauses. It's amazing. This was a great blog. It's about time that this effort to shut down the shadow fleet is finally being undertaken.
Agreed. Joe is an amazingly effective communicator. I'd like to know more about his background. Is he a university professor in economics? A secondary school teacher? A glib stocks analyst? An ex-business journalist?
Anybody know?
@@blueridgebikeman You left out auctioneer. I often have TV on with the sound off, using captions. Oh my, every video is like an exercise speed reading, but I'm not complaining. You're right, Joe is amazing.
But what is he saying is total bs … he is a clown
Even better because as a Yank, the British "ehm" is like nails on chalkboard to my ears. Even when people are "uhm'ing" I find it difficult to follow what they're saying because I start hearing just the pauses.
He doesn't have any personal information on his home site. I looked around online and couldn't find anything. I did find a Joseph Conaghan who goes by Joe Blogs on Twitter, but it's a different person.
I’m just so blown away that you can speak on any subject like this without a teleprompter. Well done sir!
There's a bird off camera with an easel and flipchart
I find that fascinating, too. I love the way he speaks to the audience! It feels more like a conversation and less like an essay. I believe Joe would have been an amazing teacher :)
@@SimSimon87 Maybe he was...
@@0nFoot you can see in his sunglasses that he isnt.
If you know the material it's easier to just talk than read a script
Joe, I really like this format, shorter, no graphs, just you giving us your take on an issue. The traditional format is important but this way adds variety. Thanks and keep up the good work.
I prefer a shorter format as well.
I do like a graf and som numbers
I like this better. I can actually get through the entire clip.
Yeah, the other is better if I was using the information to make investment moves etc, but I'm not.
Very insightful report! Shadow ships with questionable registration, insurance, and most importantly degraded safety certification should be banned from transiting through Mediterranean, North Sea, and 'First Chain Islands' Pacific waters. With the seizure and subsequent salvage of dangerous vessels, and the surrendered of crude oil, this practice would end immediately.
Just what i tried to put in words but you did it a lot better :)
And deny the Russian fleet of fishing ships docking in our ports.
Seizing the vessels on the open seas would be piracy. Transloading cargo avoids the need to enter national waters.
@@1djbecker think of it as reparations to ukraine with russian oil.
@@leogetz-rf1kf Most countries have far more to lose than gain by breaking international law, even against countries commiting war crimes.
arresting / seizing of these tankers for being unseaworthy to be inspected repaired
And the fleet of fishing ships.
@@beam3819 Yep, we all like fish and chips.
There are many ways to apply sanctions. Stop cash flowing. 💻⚡🔥
Use any means to stop the flow of cash.
May this come true!
Sweden here: I'm quite sure we and Denmark can close Öresund for inspections quite easy. I'd guess that 60%(?) of all Russian crude oil passes the strait.
AFAIK it is international waters and we have to let them pass. I think it was GB who forced this rule upon us a few hundred years ago putting an end to our lucrative business of applying toll on all ships passing through the Danish streets.
@@SteenLarsen I believe that gives them a right of passage. But it does not exempt them from regulations of the nations whose water they’re sailing through.
@morstyrannis1951 I'm guessing now; as mentioned, there are maritime rules and right to passage but I find it hard to believe that unassured rusty ships have rights to pass our waters if we say no to it.
@@SteenLarsenWell they don’t respect any “international rules”, why should we? Danmark here too. Close the straits!
@@skymaster4121this and war changes those rules dramatically. Many of these rules are part of peace agreements, not war agreements.
I enjoy this format! Jiggling didn't bother me none...have a blast!
Agree
Wherever you are, it's always interesting to hear your findings about Russian economy.
Joe Blogs - the UK's Peter Zeihan. Yes, Joe, we are very pleased that it is going to be scorchio on the beach. It is good that you are getting out of the studio and topping up your Vitamin D. I like the studio chart-based format but this format is a nice change too and I do not care about mildly shaky camerawork. Maybe draw a graph on the beach. As someone else said, it is impressive that you can do this so fluently. I thought that it might be possible to test crude oil for the chemical composition but I expect that in practice a cargo could be mixed from different sources.
Much better than PeterZeihan though.
The walking doesn't bother me either. Charts are good though.
🏴
Isn't he Australian? His accent is unmistakably Australian to ny ears.
@@jarls5890 No, it's definitely a British accent.
If you’ll notice, the beach looks like Ukrainian flag, yellow sand and blue sky
Yes the Ukranian flag is supposed to represent yellow wheat fields and a blue sky.
@@planetwaft349 yes and the beaches of Crimea
Yes I love hearing the waves in the background just the right volume
Good news, we're lucky there hasn't been an ecological disaster yet because of these old vessels.
The are not that old... Some are fairly new just not insured
@@glintongordon6811 Maybe but the ones he mention in the video are over 30 years old, and this was stated before.
@@hedleythorne he literally said not all of them
@@glintongordon6811 Yes not all of them, but you said "they are not that old" implying they are all new. In reality that just isn't the case.
there already has been in a transfer, video on 'what's going on with shipping' channel. not a huge disaster but it's not only older ships it's that they're also not maintained all that well with suss crews.
ThIs is very good to hear. Keep up the good work Joe. And enjoy your vacation!
I was in the 1970s an analytical chemist and in those days we were able to determine where crude oil was from by its chemical signature using mass spectrum analysis. I am sure it is all the same today and the database of signatures of all crude and that Russian crude from the time the oil majors and the rules of transhipment were being observed up to at least 2014. So crude oil at least can be known from whence it came. This is how the legal authorities can determine where oil spills and discharges of crude come from. Kind regards
I hope the authorities start using this technology to identify Russian crude,(because the Russians definitely are crude.) ☺️👍🌊⛱️🌴
Absolutely 100% correct. I became an analytical chemist in 1974. With miniturization & technology in can be done anywhere in minutes. They are finger printing lava in Hawaii
I love the shorter format! I usually listen while I'm doing something else, so I usually don't see the graphics anyway.
Shorter, scenic episodes are a good change up
Your videos are always sharp and filled with information that I can't get anywhere else. Being an engineer, I like the your graphs. Care take, peace - J from Texas
600 ships!!! I was totally shocked. 21/2 years after Putin invaded and started indiscriminate killing, there are still 600 dark ships. And all of those ships could create a massive ecological disaster. However it is very good news that the west is going to crack down on them. They have the ability to do it.
Same thing China and Iran have been doing for decades.
There is nothing moral about capitalism. Capitalism is just a mechanism.
These are all tankers that existed before. They were bought because they were the cheapest available. They were the oldest, most expensive to operate or had the shortest remaining life.
Sure, as smugglers, they are going to be operated with the least possible investment and maintenance. But the overall ecological risk hasn't changed as much as you might expect.
Russia spent the last two years aquiring such a fleet.
@@Pikkabuu ... with support from India, which is benefitting from the somewhat cheaper oil.
I absolutely love the holiday location reports ❤ But what impresses me the most, is the commitment this channel has to keep giving us quality content, even whilst on holiday!
What a legend 👏
Great format to keep things fresh. I don't mind a mix of your usual format and some on-site videos like this. The introduction of a graph here and there during on-site videos helps visualize the points made, so good job there. Thanks, Joe!
Thanks Joe for the update Great 🇬🇧 finally cracking down on the 🇷🇺n shadow fleet .. 💙💛💙
The receiving tankers are legitimate. The coast guard can track their AIS navigation. They can map and see which are going to a mid ocean location, then come back with a full load.
That's the weak link for me, too.
If they idle too long at sea or have transponder failures (frequently) you can start compiling a data base of possible violators.
Start refusing port entry after warnings (or better yet, catching them in the act).
Start blacklisting the vessels for insurance and finances if they lack reasonable explanations.
In the computer age this shouldn't be so difficult.
@@TJ000I don’t understand this sick obsession with Russia. So much energy spent simply trying to hobble another country.
@@enshk79 It may have escaped your attention that this 'other country' has invaded another sovereign country.
Its aggressive behaviour has murdered many civilians and destroyed cities.
Now if you do know why sanctions should be placed on such a country what evidence/information will?
@@enshk79russia invaded Ukraine partially in 2014 and fully in 2022. russia has commited war crimes at all stages of it's invasion including mass murder of civilians in Irpin, Bucha, and Izium, among many others, mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children, and the downing of a civilian airliner (MH17) in 2014.
Additionally, russia has been waging war against democracy across the globe for decades.
This is only a fraction of the crimes committed by russia.
Hope that helps!
I guess you don't understand things@@enshk79
Impressive that you can do this without a script or a teleprompter! It is possible to "see" where oil comes from based on the chemical signature. There are rather distinct combinations of organic chemicals in crude oil from different locations.
Thank you for taking us to the beach. 😊👍🌴🌞🌊⛱️
All those ageing, unregistered tankers are sure to cause a spillage at some time, Glad to hear about the International co-operation.
I never knew Simon Cowell was so up to date with economic and political events
Lol, perfect comparison.
☺️👍🌊⛱️🌴🌞
Thank you Joe! This is good news! Better late than later!
Great as always, Joe, whether on the beach or in the studio. The graphics are useful, though, if it's not too much trouble to insert them under the commentary.
Nice holliday Joe from Holland. Keep going 😊
Dont know why safety checks were not done 18 months ago.
They are done in most Western ports every time a ship berths , an that is any ship, container, bulk cargo or cruise .
It only make the news when major defects are found and the ship is refused the rights to leave port till the defects are fixed .
This is why it costs a lot more to ship to places like Australia or NZ because our inspectors are quite strict so the rusting out hulks rarely ever come here .
I've been complaining for over 2 years -- simple -- without Russian Oil, Gas, & Uranium -- Europe's economy collapses -- explain to me why the U.S. halted Nat Gas exports to Europe (Supreme Court over ruled Biden's executive order)?
Because the shadow fleet ships didn't normally dock in Europe - they transfered oil ship-to-ship in shallow waters next to the coast, and sailed to India, China & similar destinations 🙃
The West has been continuously self deterring. Even now, NATO is pressuring the UK to not allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow to hit targets inside Russia proper while the UK has indicated they're OK with Ukraine doing what they need to.
I really like your blogs, thank you very much.
Good afternoon from Croatia
I think this is the second of your presentations from the beach that I’m watching.
Admiration for your unscripted and spontaneous presentation. The background scenery is a nice touch. The shorter format is also enjoyable.
Thank you for all your uploads and updates
Zoltán
I like these shorter format videos! You get to the point and analysis much quicker than your long format deep dives.
Filming when you’re out and a about is good, enjoy the sun and hope you have a great holiday; it still wet and not great weather back in the UK, well at least it is in Devon. Have fun and thank you.
Glad you enjoying yourself, Joe 😁
7:15 You can actually determine where oil comes from by looking at its constituent isotope signature. It's just a question the deployment of folk and equipment able to test the ship borne cargo.
Joe out and about.... enjoying it!
Holding an umbrella drink would add to that holiday vibe 😀
Joe, it's nice to see you out and about. One of my favorite channels is that of Peter Zeihan who is a global economist and geopolitics expert. Most of his videos are recorded while hiking in the great outdoors which makes for an interesting watch.
Far and away my biggest complaint against Britain, has been and always will be, not policing the Danish Straights against Russian shadow Oil Tanker fleets -- it is, unequivocally, an embarrassment to not only Britain but also to NATO -- and you wonder why Trump dislikes NATO?
What can a UK navy do, there are very few warships left!
@@grahamkearnon6682 I don't see how Britain's Navy can navigate East of the Island against missiles with all those Windmills that China has built.
I'm quite sure we Swedes (with US backing ) and Denmark can close Öresund for inspections quite easy. I'd guess that 60%(?) of all Moscow (stolen Siberian ) crude oil passes the strait....
Another good blog. I prefer the in studio format with graphs and articles.
There's no way they should be getting through the Baltic Sea (ie "Lake NATO"), or the Western End of the Mediterranean.
Add the Eastern Med these ships have to go by Greece, Turkey, Italy all of which are Nato members. They should never make it to the Western Med.
Ruzzia lost the Baltic Sea forever. You see ALL of the Baltic Sea Countries 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇵🇱 🇩🇪 🇩🇰 🇸🇪 and 🇳🇴 bought the Finnish Sea Mine Defense System couple of weeks ago. Those are easy to deploy in the peace time and you just switch the system on when needed. This defense system is why Finland doesn’t need a massive fleet. Now add the sneaky Swedish and German submarines and Ruzzian navy isn’t going anywhere 😂
Joe is missing the main point - Russia could cut off all Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear Power Plant maintenance that Europe relies on, as well as 3rd party Oil & Gas to Europe -- or Europe's economy collapses.
These tankers can operate from Murrnansk. That's a year-round ice-free port that opens directly on the Atlantic. It's hard to blockade that one.
Oh… Finland, Canada and USA has now an agreement to build armed multipurpose icebreakers. (That was in the Nato summit). In the last war Finland was not allowed to cut the supplies from the Murmansk. USA had lend and lease with Stalin. Today Finland will sharply cut everything. We don’t repeat that mistake. There will not be a port in the Murmansk and no road or railway from it. Norway is happy to help 🥳
I believe it when I see first tanker seized
It's already happened, last year or earlier this year 2 ships were held because they had previously been carrying Russian oil and were stopped when they brought legitimate oil, for someone other than Russia, into a Western Port.
Really good news for our environment.
I wish I was on holiday in the same area as you Joe. Unfortunately I'm on the West Coast of Canada, about as far away from you as possible!!! Enjoy your time in the sun and on the beach. You've earned it!!
What do you mean IF ?
The Houtis just sunk one in the Red Sea .
Surely as these tankers can only come from 4 ports it is not beyond expectations that the combined navies of the West can follow each & every one and in particular this would stop the tankers rendezvousing with a legitimate tanker in the high seas & transferring their cargos so they can pretend it is from a different country .
Yeah. Way too complicated and "lovey dovy".
Just give Ukraine a few fast interdiction ships from which they can launch their sea drones, allow the tankers to unload, and then convert them to submarines.
Much simpler. Much cheaper. Will stop this shipping much faster.
@@a5cent That would only work if they were Russian registered ships and we know the vast majority are not. Other countries will take a dim view of Ukraine blasting their ships out of International waters.
@@cantiaci
I couldn't care less. They are transporting sanctioned freight. It would stop these shenanigans in days.
Of course it would have to be announced with a few weeks notice. It can't come as a surprise, but that's obvious.
Liking the reports from the beach, Joe. Keep up the great work and enjoy your time off.
Good News. We don't want the natur to pay for Russian oil.
Love your holiday vibe!
You rule the talk-off-script presentation style.
There are always those who complain about something - BABIES!!! There are always babies! Thanks for awesome videos and information
and they are so loud...
I do like this casual way of keeping us updated. Thanks Joe and enjoy your well deserves beach days.
Could these tankers have made it through Bosphorous, Suez or Panama in recent times? It seems crazy that those countries might allow an uninsured rust bucket through their waterway. In their case we're not just looking at an environmental disaster from an accident but also a financial catastrophe that could cost them billions in lost revenue from fees. Not to mention a disaster for shipping at a global scale. Even other choke points near Malaca and Denmark or Gibraltar gotta be wary. Whatever treaties force these nations to allow free movement of ships must have safety exceptions. And preventing a big patch of oil in the middle of a thin and busy sea lane or canal is gonna count as a safety issue.
When you're a country like Turkey with a devastated economy it doesn't take much to sail through their channel.
@@Matthew-wn8oqTrue, but then you have Greece right there and then Egypt and Morocco/Spain (depending on which end of the Mediterranean you exit from) to try to get through.
Bravo to you for moving out of the studio and off to some interesting place. Being in a pleasant environment doesn't seem to at all affect your delivery of facts. Keep up the good work. This is important information.
The Netherlands already prevent the shadow ships to bunker.
Two points about the shadow tanker fleet: 1) Shipping oil and gas by ship is more expensive, perhaps twice as expensive, as shipping oil and gas by pipeline. 2) Shadow vessels have to skirt sanctions and run without proper insurance, so their deliveries are more expensive and the oil and gas must be sold at a discount. 3) Put in your own figure as to the revenue that Russia has lost.
❤❤❤ from Brisbane Australia 🇦🇺
I love the outside videos, it makes you happier probably being outside and I think I can speak for everyone and say we are just grateful for the content regardless.
Joe, your channel has a reputation for thoughtful, accurate, objective, and germane content. You are not watched for entertainment purposes. Location and background are not relevant.
This format is just great! And many thanks for all the information you provide. Greetings from Switzerland
Enjoy your vacation. I have a neutral stance to the format but I really like that you keep uploading a small video to keep us up to date
I usually just listen to your content, but you putting the camera down made it a good shot👍
I like the beach video's better than the @ home ones. I think you should stay where you are 🙂
Yes, the waves in the background are so soothing. Somehow these videos seem more relaxing than the studio videos.
I like your new format. Hope the holiday is going well.
Can't believe people complained about a slite shake, you swear they'd never experience this while walking ffs.
Thank you for getting rid of (temporary I understand) that purple background with voodoo doll over your shoulder. Whew! Finally listened to a full episode.
Joe, thank you for taking us along. Enjoyed this video. XOXO Rosie
I don't understand why this was not done earlier
Always enjoy the updates regardless of whether you’re in the studio or on the beach.
One can easily see where the boatload of oil is coming from, where it was loaded, and which general area the actual oil is from. How come there can be different prices for Norwegian Brent, and separate price for soviet oil, and other types too, if "oil is oil". For a layman person (next to you in that beach), they could think that "oil is black, that's it", but it is trivial to differentiate between different oil types and -sources.
There are few other whole countries who launder oil from other countries, claiming it is "from their own oil wells". Funnily, one oil laundering country in east Mediterranean, does not even have oil, but they are still exporting the "oil they found on their own areas", and specially, they launder it as it was stolen and smuggled from areas that are not even close being theirs, or not even in the same country. And yes, even that oil is easily distinguishable and identifiable, if the customers cared, or the world media was far less corrupted.
The sound of the beach sounds very nice to me. In a second day of after seizure recovery. So something relaxing is nice. Work was a short day for me as the brusing and cuts are visible not the best thing in a restaurant.
Thanks for the news. Enjoy the vacation but don't let up.
Thanks for a great video. Yes, please do more ‘Walk and Talk’ videos. Far better that b-roll media.
I liked your "coffee talk" shorts too. These are great. We don't always have to have all the minute details!
Hey Jo blogs. Have you ever considered doing a blog with Peter zeihan.
I love the way you explain in detail and easy to understand terms. I also like Pete zeihan's big picture way of thinking.
Sometimes, when you mix two really great things, you get a mess, like bacon flavored ice cream or hot sauce and ❤lube.
I wonder what it would be like if you and Pete had a sit down ?
Personally, I think you guys would be spaghetti and meatballs.
Anyway, just a thought.
I really enjoy your channel.
Bloody good news 👏 👍
All good stuff. I was working and listening so imagined the graph!!
Cheers
A
I'm putting your sun tan on a graph so far you've been going up one shade per day.
@@James-ke5sx I am worried 😬 🦞
Keep the "on location" videos coming. Great content!
Oooooo...Shaky! Really? My oh my, how could one survive such a calamity?
50 years later is my professional camera work experience a waste on YouthTube for closet voyeurs?
Hello Joe. My wife and I enjoy your channel very much. We are in are early and late 70's. I like your videos better when you are in your studio. We also like your longer format. We are Americans living in the USA. We wonder why you do not have any programs dedicated to the goings on in the USA ? We note the USA is mentioned all the time as it relates to the country of topic, but the USA in not the topic!. The USA is in as much trouble as China, Cuba and Russia. Everyone needs a vacation from work, so enjoy it ❤. But the office is calling. Blessings. Leo and Ellen.
I like this shorter videos. Good work! Very interesting 👌
Clacton looks lovely at this time of year... Great episode!.
HALLELUJAH! ^^ Been waiting for something like this for a while now -- these black boats have been a disgrace for the energy-market as well as an environmental danger for far too long.
I like the new format, and the 10 minute videos - keep going!
Thanks for the news of the day.
As always, love the data and presentation! Also thank you for the static camera. Makes a huge difference to people like me that have motion issues. ;)
Denmark and Sweden should close the Store Baelt and Öresund straits to the shadow fleet. That would make it impossible for the ruZZians to ship oil from their Baltic Sea ports.
Joe, I notice that at that early morning time the beach cleaning equipment has already done most of its overnight re-beautifying work (at 08:14 one piece of equipment still present and more just later to our right) if you are still there for another day maybe save some footage of their work and maybe talk to someone about that useful but generally unseen effort.
Yes, these out of office in the field reporting episodes are an engaging way to get your intelligence out - why sweat in your wee office when you can perspire out on a extensive beach - no boardwalks too much clomping about.
Zeihan’s predictions coming of age, it’s all hitting the fan.
It’s been hitting the fan since 2022 yet Russia is projected to grow by 3.2% according to the IMF. That’s after 13 rounds of sanctions made up of over 1,700 individual sanctions. These predictions are aging like milk
I like the mobile version Joe, it goes to prove what a good operator you are. Thanks
Thank you for the update, enjoy your vacation !
I'm glad you are enjoying your vacation. You did ask us for our preferences. While beiing on location is interesting, I find the format to be a little distracting. I prefer your set, and I do like the "chapter" format you generally use which helps me navigate through your presentations. Do enjoy being at the beach.
Does the UK finally have an effective leader again?
Love format . Well done on report . It was bang on the money .
Not being funny, think i'm right but oil is not just oil, it does contain a label, in it's chemical breakdown, Russian Crude Oil is not as good as from other parts of the world.
Yes I wondered about this too. I thought that it might be possible to test crude oil for the chemical composition but I expect that in practice a cargo could be mixed from different sources.
No worries about the moving camera. Like to see the background scenery..
That won’t hurt Russia as much now because Russia can’t use the North Sea but come winter it only has the Baltic Sea!
Yep love the holiday videos and good to see you out and about ❤
Clacton by the Sea.