Logan Mohtashami: How Trump’s Treasury could lower mortgage rates

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about what the Treasury department could do to help lower mortgage rates. The two also discuss the homeownership rate.
Related to this episode:
The state of US homeownership: Younger buyers hold the key | HousingWire
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The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.

[@eccentricccc]

For someone who cares so much about data you sure got your data mixed up. In 2024, the average age of a homebuyer in the United States was 56 years old... not Millennials.

[@Urreasteve]

Everyday? YES!

[@randypaul5427]

Logan is quoting Oscar Wilde. Picture of Dorian Gray and housing. Great podcast today.

[@giniaa2707]

If Bessent approach is successful getting rates lower, won't that make inflation worse?

[@LoganMohtashami]

No, if mortgage rates fall to around 6%, it won't affect the inflation trend. Housing permits are already at recession-level lows, which negatively impacts future supply. This will likely have a greater effect on inflation, particularly for rental supply, since supply is the best way to deal with inflation.
We had a Zero interest rate policy and 3.25%-5% mortgage rates for a decade from 2010-2019 and inflation barely kept at 2%

[@giniaa2707]

@@LoganMohtashami Thanks, Logan. I would expect if interest rates go down, that it will drive up competition for houses. Do you see that differently?

[@LoganMohtashami]

​@@giniaa2707 Home prices don't filter into the CPI and PCE inflation data; rent does. Also, if mortgage rates just head toward 6%, we will be fine, as inventory is higher now than 2020-2023 data

[@giniaa2707]

@@LoganMohtashami I am living in NY state and inventory here is quite scant for the number of people looking to buy a house that isn't at the high end. I would like to think that lower rates won't affect competition for homes, but I can't see how that will be the case. Feel free to correct this view, if you see other factors. Thanks for your replies.

[@LoganMohtashami]

@@giniaa2707 The Federal Reserve does not directly target home prices as part of its dual mandate. However, the labor market for residential construction workers may be relevant to the economic cycle, as it serves as an early indicator of a recession. Manufacturing jobs have already been lost since 2024, and if employment in the residential sector declines next, interest rates will likely decrease regardless of other factors. In the housing market, there are not many homes priced between $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 in America, and interest rates are not the primary influence on those prices.