AI & Robots: What No One Tells You.
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- Опубліковано 16 тра 2024
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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How Humanoid Robots Will Change The World. - Наука та технологія
The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
RethinkX: www.rethinkx.com/
Adam's Book: www.amazon.com/dp/B0BPGMW2B6/
I have simply stopped talking about humanoid robots with most people because they will compare the bots that are coming with the robot that patrols the Giant supermarket. Most people have no idea what’s happening.
People have no access to the Internet or do they just watch tik tok?
Not gona lie when I pressed play and saw it was a ninety minute video, I was like yesssssss!!!!
Smart Humanoid Robots are like license to print money to buy more printers of money
You need to stop thinking about our current economic structure as it is now, it will eventually disappear along with the requirements for money. It will be about global abundance.
@Yewbzee Eventually, will take a while. It is not time yet to stop thinking about money. Money will drive this disruption as it has every one previously.
@@Yewbzee Bullshit.
@Yewbzee
Look, it's raining doughnuts again..😋
@@Iron_Void thanks for your insights. With a bit more home schooling you might actually be able to string a sentence together next time, contribute to a discussion and and convey some of your ideas.
Most people around the office water cooler think that the Tesla robot is just a gimmick. They equate it to the Boston Dynamics bots running around, dancing, simply running a program. They have no idea where this is going, and how these "stupid" robots are going to change the world forever.
Average people just don't even know what's going to happen. We all see it but the average person doesn't know what's coming
The four legged dog robots were derived from their stability. Programmers ten years ago could not supply human two legged function.
The people you're referring to are trapped watching dumb clips on Instagram and meta working a typical 9-5 never bettering themselves. They're certainly not planning or looking into the future so it's their loss to be so naive.
Did you get that from "The office" or is "water cooler talk" an actual real thing?
@@TopherClimber it's their loss sure but it's certainly not their fault imo, nowhere do parents teach their children to look forward except with regards to "what career are you going into"
Only problem is careers may not exist 30 years from now when they expect their children to actually have one, they are looking at the present, not the future
This wouldn't be a problem if not for the concept that pressuring children to enter well paying careers that they hate is fairly commonplace, because the incentive is "money, job, financial security", not "value, tasks, service availability"
Everyone in the world needs to rethink it's core principles, what metrics are useful to determine self worth, I for one believe we are valuable because God made us, but I feel alot of men who don't have that are going to feel empty and without purpose
When your robot is a better teacher then any school can teach better doctor then any hospital can offer and a better tradesman in any situation, a therapist and potentially a partner, truly a Pandora’s box opens before our eyes
Going to be a real zombieland. We are going to have to reinvent purpose and meaning of life. Reinvent society and politics. Send the robots to war instead of humans!!
Not only better but a lot cheaper
@@honkytonk4465not cheap if you don't make money
100% correct BUT--How do we eliminate the human condition of greed and power over others. People are people and there will always be power hungry aholes. Dictators!
Maybe in a world with less scarcity people will not see the incentives in the pursuit of “power.” It may be a naive vision on my part…..but I truly hope we evolve to identify greed and squash it, rather than reward it like we do today.
AI does not have greed but does require power 😅
@FloydCotton-hx4jh nah I'm a pessimist in that regard. Someone always wants to be different, better, etc.
@@trent_carterpower will be almost free as well
Thank you, Farzad, for asking the hard questions.
Adam rocks. Please make him a regular.
he is like tony seba but with charisma 🤘👍🦾
And he doesn't breathe through his nose as heavily
Tony has charisma. At least for needs like me! I hang on his every word.
But then I love Dua Lipa too, so I'm clearly not normal.
the Dua Lipa reference is revealing 😂
Instead of thinking about folding laundry or mowing lawns, think about what this could do to our housing shortage. I envision a squad of robots who can do framing one day, plumbing the next, wiring, painting, trim work, siding, roofing etc. They could also do this day or night using the equivalent of night vision. So how much would an apartment building cost once smart robots can do most of this work? Also think how much faster this building could be constructed?
You think like I do. But I am considering the end of hunger. Bots doing the same. 24/7 preparing sustenance for humans that would effectively free. Basic food but more elaborate meals would cost but to sustain one human for one day is free.
Nope, there was a random guy on X who is an “expert” who said its never possible. So nice try
Exactly! We need more people who think of the potential of the coming change like this!
Rudimentary robot construction robots are being tested.
So smart! The housing crisis would be completely solved because our problem with housing is that we don't have anyone to build the houses efficiently. Wow. So smart!
Our whole economy is built around how much money you make. It determines where you live, how well your children are educated, what type 9f transportation you can afford or get a loan for. This will not work as jobs are removed from the human work force. So we really need to restructure the the way we measure success in our economy. Musk is pushing UBI. If we do not do something around this issue, as unemployment becomes greater and greater due to job losses social unrest will force change perhaps violently. So I am glad to see these issues are being discussed!
UBI is a terrible idea, assuming it's managed by the tyrannical government. Imagine everyone on welfare. Unreal. There must be a way to own your bots, have them earn crypto to then be able to spend for what you need. Eventually when bots are sentient it will be slavery.
The compounding effect of the humanoid robot at $1.00/hr is mind boggling and will super-accelerate the rate of the other three foundational disruptions. If you are someone who is unable to find purpose in life beyond earning money, the next 5 to 10 to 15 years could prove to be very difficult both mentally and financially. Alternatively, the future will be bright for those who embrace and understand a world with abundance.
In what world is renting a robot for an hour going to coat $1? Are you completely out of touch with reality?
@@JLydecka he is
I did a rough calculation and got to $2.50/hour as a reasonable cost for using a humanoid.
I guessed at a production cost of $24k, 3 years run time, and 50% margin for the supplier.
And $0.50 /hour charging and maintenance cost.
It's easy to see with even a rough calculation that the labour cost drops more than 80%. Humans need not apply!
But since it will be a seller market early on, I would expect them to take an enormous profit margin to begin with.
You have to use them, even if the labour cost only gets down to 50% or so!
I suggest that you who don't belive these numbers, do your own calculation. It's good for you to get into that habit!
@@JLydecka the cost for renting wouldn’t be $1 per hour, that would be the cost for ownership. Although I would put the cost for ownership between 3-5 per hour depending on the seller’s margin.
Lot of things we take for granted once seemed far fetched. it comes down to $ per kW in the end, as with $ per barrel of oil.
resources and plant cost must be factored in also.
A robot not in use will be the exact same as a Tesla EV not in use: it will plug into charge and do distributed computing.
Few get this
Wow Farzad, your best podcast ever. Just when I started to stray from you and your new approach to educating the new comers, you throw this one on us. I've been following this guy on Rethink for a few years but this was next level shit. Somehow better than Herberts I terview. Seriously dude, great job. I'm back. Give us more of this.
Within two years or less, will have robots building robots and robots building factories to build more robots. It is going to go fast, and Tesla is going to be the largest and richest company on the planet. Buy as much stock as you can people!
That already existed in 2019... it watches it using Ai, and modifies its mini robots that is made by the bigger robots. It already exists. Each model gets better as it fixes any camera spotted Ai issues...
We do not see a lot of things, it already exists.
Report January 2017 - "Norwegian robot learns to self-evolve and 3D print itself in the lab"
Totally agree with your projection regarding Tesla. I’m not really focussed on the car side of the business, it’s the AI, robot, energy and automation tech that’s going to be the insane growth area.
All technology released to the public is new for the public, not for private gov/military
What a BRILLIANT discussion!!
Such good discussions, wish I had inperson friends that I could have similar conversations with
I felt this way for a long time. I live in an area where it's difficult to find smart people. Maybe AI will become good companions for some of us and engage us.
We've optimized the modern world for the generic human. What seems clear is that, at some point, we will be optimizing for the robots. They don't need to be exactly our form factor. As such, there will be subtle optimizations, perhaps context specific, that make the robot better than human. Seems inevitable.
What will make the human better will be intelligence and eventually speed. Sure, there will be specialist form factors, but remember these are already here.
Eventually human conscience will be downloaded into a humanoid robot and sent to explore space
I think we will eventually send small ships to nearby stars. They will use 3D printing and local resources to produce robots at their destination and then upload human consciousness to those robots... or even produce biological bodies and upload to them. Presto. Humans in other star systems.
@@jimroth7927just make sure your stack doesn’t get blown out
Naw we should be fine.
@@Julio-vl5cx did I just find a Cyberpunk reference? :)
Amazing discussion.
Must hear for everyone!
Fantastic info! TY
I love these conversations. Keep them coming
I just had a near death experience. This guy almost bored me to death.
It is ok, this is your world 🌎, we just create and run it for you 😂
Farzad, at around the 17 minute point you exclaimed something to the effect of ‘I just love this geeky stuff - I could talk about it all day!’ I definitely share your thoughts on this. We are indeed at a point in history unlike any other (and that is a huge understatement). This stuff is so fascinating.
By the way, GREAT guests!
Folding laundry will become very popular, retro is back
Adam hits it on the head when he says .. “the question is can we adapt to it in a way that is ethical, equitable, humane, … that we don’t lose ourselves in what makes us human in the process …” those are many IF’s.
Great informative, insightful, inspiring, and interesting 😅 I’m so glad you’re getting the info out. Thanks 😅
FARZAD!! That was a friggin awesome video and your guests were very knowledgeable and their "STACOTO" like presentation was an enjoyable brain freeze as the pace of information was "exceptional"!! Thanks for your ongoing efforts and all the best to PW and the miracle you are about witness very soon!! Stay happy, safe and well!! Greetings from the shores of Lake Huron!! GIDDYUP!!
Love it! Thank you guys for the awesome content! ❤❤❤'s guys. Appreciate you
Love this! So well thought out and well explained on where we are going. Thank you for a podcast that doesn't insult people's intelligence!
Love this. Thanks for the great information. Might be nice to add your guests name to the title so it's searchable. Thanks
Adam! Right on.
Outstanding video. Thank you.
Thank you all, so much!
Best interview ever, I follow all your interviews, this has to be the best, most informative with great foresight into the future and great steps to start the learning of the impact of the robot and AI revolution.
Amazing interview!
the weird thing already in Australia Machines like bulldozers and other landscaping machinery have 3D models to assist the driver to be able to set levels and landscape an area perfectly
I assume it's not ai controlled.
One dollar cost to operate a humanoid robot per day? This is where all of the engineers in the meeting. Start laughing and pulling their hair out at the same time. The marketing and sales people get all mad and try to tell you how the numbers make sense. I as a engineer start thinking about getting a new job because my boss are insane. That is only 365 dollars per year. One replacement actuator will cost more than that. Don't get me start on the 200,000 dollar price to buy a new humanoid in first place. This is FOMO.
This was a fascinating discussion that really opened my eyes to the massive potential for good with robotics. Well done 👍🙏
This is going to be legendary. Once this doesn’t happen the way any of these experts say it’s going to it will be an incredible fall from grace. This dude sounds and looks like a robotic charlatan. This chat room just proves what I’ve been saying for years now: No one is more religious than a secular liberal progressive.
Crazy thing is I’m not doubting its creation or public release. I’m doubting that it will work out the way they say. They don’t understand humans enough nor the unintended consequences of any of this. And the best part is that they don’t care because they’ll make off with the green whether it works or not.
I bet to are like me, 50 years or older. I have been working with Tech my entire life and I can tell you this, social changes due to tech are accelerating very fast and I fear them as much as you, but we need to adapt to what we can’t control. AGI could be built in 5 years with an organized decision of investing 300 Billion easy. But we want to focus on making money with chat LLMs. It all depends on focus. We could cure cancer in 12 months if we wanted to, but that will open the door to life extension and other genetically easy to do changes, that society is not ready for. You and me do not control the direction our worlds is taking, we are running fast and ours and parents generation will not be the one with the final word on where we go, our children will carry that burden.
I actually don’t know if I fear AI. Maybe I will. What I fear far more than AI is a severe recession/depression. Young men who hate this country and are indifferent to its continued existence. The fact that debt is the only reason we are able to move past a certain point in the Maslow hierarchy. Run away hypergamy from our women leading to a hard return of religion. Last estimate I heard is an Islamic world growing to the tune of 75%. So what I believe is happening is the experts are so disconnected to the average everyday human or they are prepared to have AI challenge all of this which is bad news for the majority of the population. Or…what is happening is this is a pump and dump scheme so a bunch of men can get very rich before the rug pull. The fact that they keep saying how much it’s going to work is worrisome. It’s like power, anyone with real power doesn’t have to manufacture consent; they just have it and will do what they want without any permission. Why bring out your cheerleaders for any of this? Just bring it out; why do any of us need to have an opinion on this or even need to know? The dangers I mentioned above are far more likely and hardly a word is mentioned. It’s even worst than that. If you mention any of that they immediately shut you down. I think if AI was as good as they say they would repeat this and make sure you are never able to talk about it and simply execute behind all of our backs.
@@MET677 Well said.
Time to re-read the Kurt Vonnegut classic: Player Piano.
Thank you Mr. Dorr and Farzad for presenting the different and as it turns out opposite sides of what the future looks like. I have been trying to get a handle on it for some years especially since Elon started Tesla. I finally can see to the end of my time here. Mr. Dorr’s thoughts describe the forces at play (predicted by Rethink X with their unusual preciseness) and lays the foundation for what will inevitably come if humanity will allow it. Farzad presents the current Fear Uncertainty and Doubt that many people feel. For most of my life i have wanted to understand the forces at play that motivate change in our lives. This talk offers a fundamental view that explains just that. So happy i carried on to finish this video it solidified the now obvious inevitable outcome of the near term future (20 years). If I’m lucky I’ll live long enough to see that time pass and watch this unfold. What a time to be alive and be a participant in. Thank you much for all the work and life it took to get the this moment where you present this information and my good fortune to have found it.
Robots don’t need so many things that people do. Don’t: call in sick, quit, complain, fight, argue, need a parking spot or break room, 401K, workman’s comp, insurance, bathroom, water, coffee, breaks, and the don’t sue. Many other advantages of owning robots. 5 to 10 years
This change is going to be the biggest challenge of every generation on the planet at the time of transition. We need to get this figured out before the transition completes because it’s gonna be fast and hard and we might only have three years to figure it out before the avalanche starts.
Whenever I see any content from RethinkX or its members.
I immediately click.
*Technological Imperative:* _Let No One Drown in the Rising Tide_
*Quote from the Video:* - 1:16:53
"This is an old, longstanding philosophical and ethical question. It's a longstanding debate about what level of disparity is acceptable socially within any unit of analysis you choose-within a family, a community, a city, a nation, or internationally across the planet. What level of difference, what level of disparity in terms of material well-being, material abundance, and material prosperity, is acceptable? How much of a gap between the haves and the have-nots is acceptable? Is any gap acceptable? That's open for debate and is not a settled issue. People have argued very strongly on both sides: that absolute equality should be the goal and anything less is a moral failure, and that some amount of disparity is appropriate and can be useful in the long run. There are multiple perspectives on this.
What I think is unequivocal, what I think most of us could agree on, is that we have to raise the floor. We can't let people fall by the wayside. We can't let people fall so far down that they can't get back up and are suffering, especially when there's so much prosperity around. Even today, with the amount of prosperity we have, seeing people suffer, seeing hungry children and unhoused people, is unacceptable. We need to raise the floor. It doesn't mean that you have to cut everybody down to size necessarily. That's an age-old debate: should you make everyone uniform? Maybe, maybe not. I wouldn't presume to enter into that debate-I'm no expert in that territory. But what I think is clear, and what I think most of us could agree on, is that we shouldn't be leaving anybody behind. Not even today, with the amount of prosperity we have, we need to pick people up and raise the floor of prosperity.
The great news about these new technologies, about all four of the disruptions, is that they can let us do that in such a spectacular way that it's hard to even put into words. The floor can rise so high that every single person on Earth could be ballin', like they have a millionaire's lifestyle, 20 years from now. We can raise the floor like that. But the only way we can do that is with technology. There's no way to get there by downsizing and shrinking the global economy and sacrificing the prosperity we've achieved up to date, as some of my fellow environmental activists and scholars think. To my mind, that's bonkers, backwards, and so wrongheaded. The only way we can raise the floor and lift everyone into some acceptable level of prosperity is with these new technologies. The fantastic thing is, it won't take a hundred or a thousand years to do that-it won't be the 21st century like Star Trek before we have that kind of prosperity. It's around the corner; it's 20 years away. It's within reach now.
So yes, we've got a lot of work, a huge amount of work, to get from here to there. We have to keep our eye on that prize. The question is, what should the gap ultimately be? Well, that's an open-ended question and, again, beyond my pay grade. But what I think everyone should be able to agree on is that massively more prosperity that lifts the least advantaged, the most disadvantaged, the poorest among us, is necessary. I mean in our societies, the privileged, wealthy societies and communities that we, and many watching, already enjoy, and around the world as well, in the world's poor countries. That floor has to be lifted massively, and I think we can all agree on that. The totally spectacular scope for doing that in the relatively near term is what gets me out of bed in the morning. That is what I'm so excited about. I just wish other people could see as clearly as I do the potential there. Once we've done the hard work of lifting that floor, we'll have plenty of time to have that more difficult and very age-old philosophical debate about what is equity, equitability, and fairness ultimately. But let's do the work we know we can get done right now, which is raise the floor for everybody. We can do that in truly spectacular fashion if we embrace and accelerate all four of these disruptions, especially the robotics disruption of labor. At least, that's my view."
- Adam Dorr
I would argue that the exponential growth of EVs is not apparent to everybody. A lot of people are ignoring the data and listening to the news media which is telling them that it's all been over hyped and over blown
24:20. He misses the even more important point: "The world is built for the human form ****AND**** we want to keep it that way." We don't want to retarget the world, so that we can no longer operate within it.
Folding clothes is one of my favorite mindfulness activities.
I have a basket-full of mindfulness for you.
That must be nice. For most people in the first world, it’s more “mindless” than mindful.
Doing something repetit8ve can become like meditating.
I noticed that running long distance worked like that.
But handwashing dishes,, woodworking, or gardening.can also do that.
But what about tightening bolt 33 and 34 at the production line? I haven't tried that. It might not be as terrible as I imagined it.
I hope the humanoids enjoy it too!
More like this one please 🙏🏾
There’s another part to add your robot. I think you’re gonna have like a personal assistant indoor light working very articulate in speech and maneuvering small objects like undoing the clasp to a necklace for grandma to hold in the bottle for the baby and then you’ll have different size differentattributes for your outdoor ones you’re still gonna have to have people that work a shovel you still have to hold the weeds out of the garden for the farmer. You still have to mow the yard. You still have to climb the ladder to get to the roof.
I'm going to freak out first time. I see someone's robot walking down the sidewalk to the grocery store for them. I don't know if I'm going to scream or laugh
So something you haven’t thought about is memorization making things smaller. It takes less energy less product less time. Add that to your predictions sorry for so I don’t remember who you’re talking to but this is one of your best ones. Keep up the good work grandpa Keith.
4 major disruptions, I think I missed them 😂😂
We are more than ready for humanoid robots. Here are just a few of the problems they will help solve: Homelessness and drug addiction by lowering the cost of construction products, helping to build homes, supervising and cleaning low cost housing and providing emotional support for recovering addicts. Quality medical care for all by lowering the cost and improving the quality of medical testing and diagnosis, cleaning hospitals and assisting patients, manufacturing medical gear, advancing drug discovery, analyzing complex biological systems. Improve policing and supervision and safety and living conditions in prisons. Educational improvements in schools by providing individual customized instruction, plus safe secure schools, no more school shootings. Every big problem we have today will be dramatically improved by humanoid robots. In addition to the benefits to society there is a lot of money to be made. Money talks. All this will happen fast.
No one is building houses for poor homeless drug addicts. Dont be so naive. Half the planet just became redundant surplus, a surplus to requirement. The 1% will no longer pay tax for welfare, instead they'll make sure we all die and are replaced by automated services.
Amazing presentation about automation! And yes, I just discovered Unitree's humanoid robot G1 starting at $16,000 and as Ray Kurzweil has shown, there is exponential (accelerating) progress in both capacity and price performance over time for these kinds of technologies.
Omg. The first guy sounds like he is making a pitch.
yes, my comment contained something about running for office.
Is his green shirt inside-out?
Farzad does the June compensation decision worry you?
If every ordinary family could afford to own 500 robots, where does all the metal and other materials come from ?
@@addisonmcmercer878 Forests.
Having a robot 🤖 talk about robots.... brilliant!
Our claim on the ownership is called the stock market. You can own the companies that ‘employ’ the bots.
1:25:54 - no disrespect to Plumbers but I don't see how plumbing can be much more difficult than driving - the problem space is pretty well-defined - pipes, pumps, water, pressure, heaters, walls, floorboards, taps, washers, etc. Each house may be bespoke - but so is each road. And when you are plumbing there are no large heavy chunks of metal coming at you from the opposite direction at 120 (60+60) mph... Besides which, most plumbing is maintenance (for which there is probably a clear process that you can follow) rather than green-fields. Throw plastering, wall-papering, carpet-laying, tiling, painting and basic electricals into the mix and you have a domestic DIY skillset that would be of enormous value to every home owner.
If only companies get access to robot laborers the divide between rich and poor would grow greater. But if there is a tax for each robot used for commercial purpose it could help provide the funds for a base pay.
Horse and cart to ice vehicles, early days I’ve been told by ggp’s was chaotic
Think of an army of robots that can plant trees nonstop
People pick on Musk for sort of changing his priorities so quickly, but when you understand how fast things move, you understand why he does that. 5 Years ago, no one was close to Tesla with making E Cars, but then China is coming on HUGE, so Tesla has to pivot its priorities to various extents and it all happens so fast. This is hard to appreciate because of how fast things are changing
finally! a talk about the change robots will cause in society without sugar coating it. They´ll take every job eventually and well have to figure out a different system. It´s not just labor goods and services, Ai will take over research, development, theoretical physics you name it....Massive change ahead.
*Underestimating the Impact of Incremental Gains in Automation*
*Quote from the Video:* - 1:23:36
"I think the quickest answer I can give to that is that a very large portion of the tasks performed at the base of the economy, such as the production of raw, base physical goods, probably does not require fully sentient, fully sapient, agentic intelligence of the general kind. I think that's a safe assumption. Now, that could be false; for example, some tasks might be more challenging.
Take plumbing, for instance, which is often cited as a profession difficult to automate. Every job site a plumber arrives at, has to address, understand, and problem-solve within, is bespoke-a unique situation-virtually without exception. The sheer number of possible ways that plumbing can go wrong-it seems fairly simple-but the sheer number of ways it can go wrong and what has to be done in the specific circumstances of that physical environment is daunting. Plumbing is often held up as an example of something that will be very difficult for robots to do, and I think that's reasonable. I think that's fair. It's an uncontrolled environment; every situation is bespoke, every situation is unique, and the stakes are potentially pretty high. Plumbing damage to a building is no joke-water damage to a building is no joke.
So, stakes are high, and the possibility space is very large. You could argue that not only do you need full generality to deploy solutions successfully in that kind of situation, but you might also need to be agentic, self-aware, and sapient to perform all the tasks a plumber does successfully. One might argue from that, that plumbing will not be automatable with narrow, non-agentic, non-sentient AI. One could argue that, and I'm open to being persuaded that that's the case.
What I remain quite bullish on is the idea that the overwhelming majority of tasks necessary to produce this superabundance of material prosperity-in other words, to produce most of the material goods (not all of the services), but most of the material goods that ultimately are the foundation for a prosperous, high quality of life for human beings-will not require full agentic, sapient artificial general intelligence. Rather, it will require a modest additional increment of capability beyond, for example, what we already see instantiated in autonomous vehicles-that's my guess. You won't need a whole lot more intelligence than what it takes to drive a car safely, to work in a retail store, a warehouse, most factories (if not all factories), restaurants, and in domestic applications like cleaning and folding laundry.
My guess is that fully agentic, sapient artificial general intelligence is not necessary to complete the overwhelming majority of those tasks successfully. Now, I'm open to being wrong here, but judging by the spectacular performance we're already seeing in these early days of capable bots, combined with the extraordinary capability of generative AI and language models (and we're quite certain those are not sapient-there's some debate, but we're quite certain they're not), my guess is that we're safe in assuming the disruption of labor will proceed purely on the basis of incremental increases in capability and the plummeting of cost down the cost curve. There isn't going to be a fundamental bottleneck on AGI, of the sapient kind, that's going to derail or fundamentally hinder the disruption.
That's where I've landed for now. The facts are coming fast and furious, and I could be proven wrong, but for right now, my money is on this disruption proceeding without requiring much more artificial intelligence than we've already got."
- Adam Dorr
There's a buzz around Revux, and rightfully so.
I love the concept of the bots building more bots and factories. The multiplyive effect is huge for societal ROI.
I do worry about the deflationary effect of all this cheap reliable labor and how products will be abundant and very low cost.
Similarly, the question of purpose for humans needs to be discussed and the question of wealth redistribution via Universal basic income. Is equity the leading principle? Do we want to go down that slippery slope?
We are so going to miss our short stressful lives as wage slaves. Health and prosperity are such depressing prospects.
The cost a goods will decrease so UBI is redundant.
@@jimroth7927People will just find new drugs.
I've spent the last 25 years developing intake software and demographic reporting software for non-profits that provide services to low income working families. I look at the data everyday. It's heart breaking. This demographic is the first to suffer when there is disruptive change. This last five years has been terrible. Price increases for every day goods, the continual debasement of the dollar, wages not increasing.... It just keeps getting worse. The coming of the bots will increase the size of this demographic creating a massive poverty class.
i'm an american in the czech republic...most people i talk to here are terrified of the coming change.
Why
@@BoeingPrototypecause Europe lol. There’s a certain cynicism and anti-tech and innovation culture brewing in the west and Europe is farther into it than America.
@@ZenTheMC Nah. Age of Abundance talk by Elon and many others... I study robotics and ag, its a game changer.... huge companies will have super cheap food as they have workers that only require minor electric recharging expense 247.
I'm an american in america. Most of the people I talk to here are afraid of the coming change. I really think just people in general are opposed to big change even though it's going to greatly benefit everyone overall. Most are just too short sided or biased to see it.
Someone train an LLM on this stuff so we can query it and see if we can get any interesting results worth talking about.
No problem the robot will make us ready
Kodak, Black Berry, Nokia, Etc. Disruption is inevitable.
The persistence of current productivity is technically possible, but not at all guaranteed. It is very well possible that AGI will decide what is to be produced. And then it may mean many people perish or it may even mean extinction. The optimism is therefore very very much misplaced. And unwise.
Great conversation. Unfortunately, corporations and the wealthy elite will "take" the prosperity first, then they'll give the leftovers to society. My hope is to see every person replaced by AI and robots gets the equivalent salary until all people in our world has a direct income, then, and only then could they make profit.
There will still be value even without needing human labour, for example, suppose I want a house with a view of the Golden Gate bridge? There's only so many houses with that view so how do we decide who gets to live there? There'll still be a need to distribute intrinsic value that isn't created by labour
Roll the dice,do a lottery.....
The jack of all trades quote is actually longer. It says Jack of all trades master of none but still better than master of one.
Farzad, you are right to be concerned about the “dark period”. America has never been good at offering a helping hand to a citizen who is down on their luck. Big government is loathed. Taxes are loathed. But these there the things that can meter out compassion during periods of desperation. When someone runs out of runway, they end up living under a bridge, desperate. Nobody wins. Not the desperate sole and not the public who have to walk under the bridge.
It would be really great to raise the floor in the really poorest countries very quickly. Haiti, Afghanistan, Yemen, CAR, Congo, ROC, Somalia, Niger, Chad, etc. And also people who are struggling in wealthier countries. That would be a real win.
When we replace human labor with AI robotic labor, spending in the economy starts to reduce, as less money for robots. Something needs to replace the lost earning/spending. Let’s hope we figure this out before the economy implodes without the consumer / human labor
Doesn’t matter if you live in the western world or other part of the world. In the past the upper and middle classes had servants. Humanoid robots would be a return to that. Servants became less of a thing because wages went up in factories. Seems pretty apparent that if they can really get the costs down there will be a return to that system.
Rumor has it that Kucoin and Binance will list Revux shortly after the launch. Great time to ape in
Robots on wheels Aka FSD vehicles are a greatly restrained AI problem but still orders of magnitude more difficult than a self driving train or elevator but still constrained.
Disrupting labor will ...... disrupt labor. There will be winners and losers. I hope I am among the winners. Very troubling.
Well, don't just hope!
As a Tesla stock holder (not trader) you are insured against this disruption!
Odd that no one has made a video about this approach to our future unemployment.
I also would not be so optimistic about inequality. Hstory shows us that there is no such thing, at least in written history. I would be enormously surprised if we address inequality at somedecent measure. I don't think world works that way. Egoism and fight for survival is built in every creature. Unfortuantely, and I hope for me and my close that we will be safe and on right side of this evolution.
This is a very smart guy...oh and Farzad ain't bad either
The next and maybe the most important disruption is in food production. Listen to Friedberg discuss the Ohalo project in this past weeks All In Podcast at 42:00 minute. What was announced just stunned me and fits in perfectly with this discussion. Please look into this and comment. Thnx
I love Elon Musk. Imagine Elon with this guy's ability to communicate and with his enthusiasm. This Dude is impressive... His hole demeanor
Equanimity is inducive to happiness
My only complaint is that it wasn't long enough.
SUPPORT ENERGY ECONOMIES ❓
- Generate our Own Energy
- Store Energy in Batteries & EVs
- Use Stored Energy to Create/Trade
Energy Crypto Currencies, FTW....
Adam has been busy!
So, moving forward as quickly as possible is the current aim around A.I., and then at some point later think of the philosophical questions...
I don't agree with that. I think there should have been a bigger initiative...or an initiative at all...to make sure that everyone carefully transitions.
If you won't bother thinking about the gaps until we reach some yet undetermined point, then what is that point? When will it happen?... It's postponement, and for what? People may end up exploiting others more than you could imagine...the first of which I would imagine are the ones who simply do not find much use with A.I., not because they're luddites but rather because it doesn't contribute for them to have personally meaningful work...even in a world of abundance, because abundance does not equal meaningful things, if you've learned anything from the rich and powerful.
I think we shouldn't let harm happen just for the sake of "progress". Too much progress will limit our ability to benefit from it because we wouldn't learn from mistakes. There are plenty of people in today's world who will try to explain themselves into finding quick fixes instead of actually finding good solutions because they don't really care that much about making the world better... _for individuals-not a market, not a business._
Key Point in this podcast: With Robotics we can MANUFACTURE labor and thereby increase prosperity.
Coming from a prosperous family, I have been saying for years that it has been my fate to live in the age between servants and robots. My parents as children grew up with servants, I might end my life with robots so the in-between period has lasted about a century.
Most exciting time to be alive is now .
I think Tesla is the only robotics company that also already has huge factories and is capable of mass production right now. In addition they've already said that they are designing for mass production. IF humanoid robots are a success then they will be demanded and manufactured in high volumes. Tesla can ramp faster than anyone else right now. That alone is a huge advantage.
Don't let the government get in the middle of a new economic model. UBI, for example, puts the government in as the tyrannical middleman.