I think MEL is a sleeping giant, look at the SYD market. Mel is pretty much overtaking SYD in terms of population growth, can still get detached houses within 15-20KMS of CBD for decent prices. It may not be as quick as SYD in terms of growth but the potential is there, moving from SYD to MEL there is a lot this state offers.
Absolutely love your content mate. Keep it up. One question tho is with investing being so borderless now, don’t you think that the insane amount of taxes the VIC government are putting on investors is a huge barrier to entry? And will the prices stay low until we get a flood of investors back in? Thanks for all your help so far 🙏🏼
Thanks mate too kind! 1. Someone will need to start the dance. Opportunistic investors, renters or stay at home turning to buyers, upsizers realising how good of a time it is to grab something very nice without huge competition. Whilst having decent choice. Once the dance begins it will kick off irrespective of costs. We still have some time for this opportunistic buyers which is good. 2. Whilst they are low you, you have a better negotiating environment 3. The beauty of national borderless investing, you don’t have to choose vic other locations exists. It all depends on what your portfolio can handle as some can’t handle the lower yields and costs + higher stamp duties and budgets.
You’re not wrong at all, lack of price growth for years - rising yields - tight vacancy - more and more affordable other cities continue on rising - buyer fatigue to kick in from buying in other areas. All of that would point to investor interest here for sure eventually
In terms of regional VIC some had their solid runs in the last 5 years whilst MELB was largely flat. E.g bendigo / Ballarat / Shepparton / Albury - wodonga as an example of some key ones. Quarterly data shows - Albury wodonga has stabilised and is flat, after solid growth - Ballarat is still declining - Bendigo has stabilised after some declines - Geelong has declined a little in the quarter too - Mildura declined in the recent quarter too - Shepparton - Mooroopna rebounding quickly with 3% quarterly gain - Latrobe Valley still declining a little In most scenarios the regional VIC markets are stabilising. However increased supply, increased days on market and sales volumes falling aren’t a great combination for short term growth. Two sides of the coin here: 1. Very few “buying” markets exist in Aus due to the heat returning or continued in strong fashion in many other areas. This could make the VIC market a proposition for early entry (patience needed) 2. Second side of the coin is, continue investing elsewhere until VIC datapoints (multiple factors) all trend the right way and with momentum.
Is it not an artificially created market to ensure demand is more, and so called "supply" is intentionally made low. How long is this artificial market sustain
Nothing artificial about the market. It’s various levers of supply and demand in play. Money printing and contracting alongside other interventions have been around for decades. Many more pieces to the puzzle. Hope you enjoyed the video
It’s expected some parts (outer east and north) will likely see “4% gross rental yields” in the future with the way rents are rising faster than prices. And yes it will still be negative cashflow like everywhere is in the current high interest rate environments.
Next 12 months performance isn’t expected to be crash hot. Better growth elsewhere. However, if people are looking to get into the future growth cycle of Melbourne earlier on, irrespective of taxes that growth cycle will come around. The price and growth disparity between Victoria and other markets can’t keep getting wider forever
I think MEL is a sleeping giant, look at the SYD market. Mel is pretty much overtaking SYD in terms of population growth, can still get detached houses within 15-20KMS of CBD for decent prices.
It may not be as quick as SYD in terms of growth but the potential is there, moving from SYD to MEL there is a lot this state offers.
I’m with you! I agree, it will have its time in the sun soon. Not right now with current stock levels, however soon this will change no doubt.
Absolutely love your content mate. Keep it up. One question tho is with investing being so borderless now, don’t you think that the insane amount of taxes the VIC government are putting on investors is a huge barrier to entry? And will the prices stay low until we get a flood of investors back in? Thanks for all your help so far 🙏🏼
Thanks mate too kind!
1. Someone will need to start the dance. Opportunistic investors, renters or stay at home turning to buyers, upsizers realising how good of a time it is to grab something very nice without huge competition. Whilst having decent choice. Once the dance begins it will kick off irrespective of costs. We still have some time for this opportunistic buyers which is good.
2. Whilst they are low you, you have a better negotiating environment
3. The beauty of national borderless investing, you don’t have to choose vic other locations exists. It all depends on what your portfolio can handle as some can’t handle the lower yields and costs + higher stamp duties and budgets.
"in this video we've removed all the noise" ....ironic! Love your content but please ease up on the whoosh noises and stock images, its distracting.
Great that you love the content ! Thank you.
If if investors are leaving and not investing in Melbourne, does that mean there will be a shortage of rentals and rental yield will improve?
Spot on Peter that’s happening right now and definitely will keep on lifting yields to higher and higher levels
@@investorkit lift to a point investors will be back in a few years because returns are better then other states.. i think
You’re not wrong at all, lack of price growth for years - rising yields - tight vacancy - more and more affordable other cities continue on rising - buyer fatigue to kick in from buying in other areas. All of that would point to investor interest here for sure eventually
Do you think regional VIC also has legs or is it mostly just metro Melb that you believe will rebound?
In terms of regional VIC some had their solid runs in the last 5 years whilst MELB was largely flat. E.g bendigo / Ballarat / Shepparton / Albury - wodonga as an example of some key ones.
Quarterly data shows
- Albury wodonga has stabilised and is flat, after solid growth
- Ballarat is still declining
- Bendigo has stabilised after some declines
- Geelong has declined a little in the quarter too
- Mildura declined in the recent quarter too
- Shepparton - Mooroopna rebounding quickly with 3% quarterly gain
- Latrobe Valley still declining a little
In most scenarios the regional VIC markets are stabilising.
However increased supply, increased days on market and sales volumes falling aren’t a great combination for short term growth.
Two sides of the coin here:
1. Very few “buying” markets exist in Aus due to the heat returning or continued in strong fashion in many other areas. This could make the VIC market a proposition for early entry (patience needed)
2. Second side of the coin is, continue investing elsewhere until VIC datapoints (multiple factors) all trend the right way and with momentum.
@@investorkitthanks for the vid now 6 months on do u see Ballarat as stabilised ?
Is it not an artificially created market to ensure demand is more, and so called "supply" is intentionally made low. How long is this artificial market sustain
Nothing artificial about the market. It’s various levers of supply and demand in play. Money printing and contracting alongside other interventions have been around for decades. Many more pieces to the puzzle. Hope you enjoyed the video
Thanks for the vid!
Welcome! Let me know if you have other topics you’d like us to cover
4% yield on what? My figures show Melbourne negative returns after expenses and interest.
It’s expected some parts (outer east and north) will likely see “4% gross rental yields” in the future with the way rents are rising faster than prices. And yes it will still be negative cashflow like everywhere is in the current high interest rate environments.
Dandenong ranges putter east ?
Melbourne wil not pick up soon simply because of land tax and other new laws that the states do not have. Most investers are leaving melbourne
Next 12 months performance isn’t expected to be crash hot. Better growth elsewhere.
However, if people are looking to get into the future growth cycle of Melbourne earlier on, irrespective of taxes that growth cycle will come around.
The price and growth disparity between Victoria and other markets can’t keep getting wider forever
Land tax…Policies come policies go. Government comes government goes..all the fundamentals are there for Melbourne .