RTE Prime Time -16 October 2003 Is housing bubble about to burst? Economist and broadcaster David McWilliams and Chief Economist with IIB Bank, Austin Hughes, debate the issue.
When it gets to the point that people are paying a million plus for a one bedroom apartment in Dublin, common sense dictates that property is being over valued. Our bubble was pretty much a mirror image of Norways in the '80s.
@@peterfarrell3807 No, there was an oversupply. The prices were only high because banks were injecting way too much capital into the market. McWilliams explains that in these videos. Also, he said rents were falling. Now rents are through the roof and still rising.
The biggest risk to current house prices is rental prices (as David said). If Sinn Fein get into power and prescribe/enforce €800 for a 3 bed semi in co. Dublin, the market will tank, along with residential construction market. Could be 2011 all over again.
"... you asked me what's driving it. It is not supply and demand. In actual fact, if you look at the demand equation. Demand -people say, most expert say - is about 40 to 45 000 new houses, we're building 62 000 new houses, we've already achived that. If it was about demand, prices would fall already." ... And the last guy says "my house is going to be an investment" Aaargh!
Hi,They were warned BUT 2003 was hard to call as the economy was ticking along with housing prices yet to rise further. They bought more or less at the last safe outpost of the property boom as these houses probably went to €350000 plus in 2006/2007. We are wise after the events as they now turn out. People then did not realize the ineptitude of the Banks and the Fianna Fall government that failed to have total command of our countries economic health as it ought to have from 2002 onward's. THX
Mortgages are only part of the problem. Central banking has major flaws that are now starting to play out on an international level. The Germans are terrified as they have seen this in full effect with the Weimar Republic (no not think that will happen though). People were sweeping money of the streets as it had no value. The problems are much bigger than people want to admit. The state of Ireland cannot be run on taxation receipts alone.
This Austin guy really seems to know what he is talking about. Property can only go up. I just bought a cottage in Donegal for 10 Billion euros. Oh yeah. PROFIT. Too easy!!!!!! Who is this McWilliams guy. Dont know why he doesnt top himself.
Heard instinct had nothing to do with people needing to pay for food, cars, education and housing. People are paying through the nose in Ireland for many different types of products because they had no choice. Paying a million for a 2 bed apartment is obviously crazy but paying 200k to 500K for allot of people was not really much of a choice. There is government based market fixing in Ireland (same as allot of countries). People either bought houses or did not.
No they are not they only gave there opinions (terrible of course). People are not educated enough on economics to understand the implications of an economy that is run entirely by government. In the UK the government controls the housing market and it has driven houses beyond normal working people even doctors and Barrister in the UK are being pushed hard by the market.
am i the only male gay who fancies mr. mc williams? !! is it his celtic-welsh-red hair or what? is he tall in real life or is he a midget like gay byrne? is he aware of being a gay icon? well, a lot of gay men, and straight women, fancy him !! has he got a fanclub?
People keep talking about Fianna Fail as if it was all them. It would not have matter who was in power that is how broken Ireland is and it also applies to the UK and US. Taxation is killing jobs in ireland the total income receipt from VAT and income tax in Ireland is equal to about 1.5m jobs yet the government at most employs about 100,000. It was not hard to call it back in 2003 I was telling people this in 1999 and people laughed at me not much laughing now though.
Or they had no other choice but to buy or leave the country. If people needed to own a property they needed to buy even that applies in today's market. Taxation is too high in Ireland and that was even in the Boom as well and for people to have extra purchasing power they required credit.
Its amazing how McWIlliams was the only one in Ireland who saw it unfolding in front of his eyes. He must be a wealthy man. Austin knows nothing
"Most unlikely to be the case - *suspicious grin* ..ooohhhh boooy
When it gets to the point that people are paying a million plus for a one bedroom apartment in Dublin, common sense dictates that property is being over valued. Our bubble was pretty much a mirror image of Norways in the '80s.
Here we go again...it’s 2021 and when’s does the next Irish property bubble happen?
On its way, though this time there is a shitload of demand, not enough supply and rents are rising.
@@2LegHumanist its a thundering herd of turtles 🤣 last time wasnt there a shit load of demand too? not enough supply?
@@peterfarrell3807
No, there was an oversupply. The prices were only high because banks were injecting way too much capital into the market. McWilliams explains that in these videos.
Also, he said rents were falling. Now rents are through the roof and still rising.
i dont understand how people say its a bad thing that somebody sees the danger coming well in advance.. ie 'you've been saying this for ages..'
Wow, those three deserved what they got. They were warned.
The biggest risk to current house prices is rental prices (as David said). If Sinn Fein get into power and prescribe/enforce €800 for a 3 bed semi in co. Dublin, the market will tank, along with residential construction market. Could be 2011 all over again.
Says it all at 07:57
"... you asked me what's driving it. It is not supply and demand. In actual fact, if you look at the demand equation. Demand -people say, most expert say - is about 40 to 45 000 new houses, we're building 62 000 new houses, we've already achived that. If it was about demand, prices would fall already."
... And the last guy says "my house is going to be an investment"
Aaargh!
I'd hate to be the banker guy now !!
Ouch!
Hi,They were warned BUT 2003 was hard to call as the economy was ticking along with housing prices yet to rise further. They bought more or less at the last safe outpost of the property boom as these houses probably went to €350000 plus in 2006/2007.
We are wise after the events as they now turn out. People then did not realize the ineptitude of the Banks and the Fianna Fall government that failed to have total command of our countries economic health as it ought to have from 2002 onward's.
THX
Mortgages are only part of the problem.
Central banking has major flaws that are now starting to play out on an international level. The Germans are terrified as they have seen this in full effect with the Weimar Republic (no not think that will happen though). People were sweeping money of the streets as it had no value.
The problems are much bigger than people want to admit. The state of Ireland cannot be run on taxation receipts alone.
This Austin guy really seems to know what he is talking about. Property can only go up. I just bought a cottage in Donegal for 10 Billion euros. Oh yeah. PROFIT. Too easy!!!!!! Who is this McWilliams guy. Dont know why he doesnt top himself.
Economy totally collapsed and we're well on the way to it happening again!
The 3 sheeple got screwed.
Heard instinct had nothing to do with people needing to pay for food, cars, education and housing.
People are paying through the nose in Ireland for many different types of products because they had no choice.
Paying a million for a 2 bed apartment is obviously crazy but paying 200k to 500K for allot of people was not really much of a choice.
There is government based market fixing in Ireland (same as allot of countries).
People either bought houses or did not.
This Austin bloke was talking through his ass right through this....
No they are not they only gave there opinions (terrible of course).
People are not educated enough on economics to understand the implications of an economy that is run entirely by government.
In the UK the government controls the housing market and it has driven houses beyond normal working people even doctors and Barrister in the UK are being pushed hard by the market.
am i the only male gay who fancies mr. mc williams? !!
is it his celtic-welsh-red hair or what?
is he tall in real life or is he a midget like gay byrne?
is he aware of being a gay icon?
well, a lot of gay men, and straight women, fancy him !!
has he got a fanclub?
People keep talking about Fianna Fail as if it was all them.
It would not have matter who was in power that is how broken Ireland is and it also applies to the UK and US.
Taxation is killing jobs in ireland the total income receipt from VAT and income tax in Ireland is equal to about 1.5m jobs yet the government at most employs about 100,000.
It was not hard to call it back in 2003 I was telling people this in 1999 and people laughed at me not much laughing now though.
@twg20101 Is he? same old, same old, i suppose.
what do you think now austin hughes? ya clown
Or they had no other choice but to buy or leave the country.
If people needed to own a property they needed to buy even that applies in today's market.
Taxation is too high in Ireland and that was even in the Boom as well and for people to have extra purchasing power they required credit.
@squirell1952 bitter and twisted at all?
cringe