I was in China in 1990. The tank tread marks were still visible in tiananmen square. I stayed in the first western style highrise hotel in Shanghai and was the first westerner into wuhan. It was very noticeable to me that there was a huge dichotomy between the city dwellers and the farmers. City people lived in rundown flats and almost no one had a car. Millions of people on bicycles everywhere. Then we drove into the countryside. Many very nice, new homes owned by the new middle class farmers. In my opinion, it was the farm community that drove the city dwellers to want similar lifestyles. That, in turn, drove the government to see the utility of a market based, free and private economy. And this freedom, exemplified by men like Jack Ma of Alibaba, who scared Xi and his crew to clamp down. As many have said, economic freedom inevitably leads to demands for political freedom and the eventual demise of the CCP.
Excellent panel, subjects for discussion, and analyses. And an encouraging last word (on free will and responsibility) from all. Thank you for conducting this, and for offering it up to the public via UA-cam.
49:35 AKA never give an order you know won't be obeyed. You could do an entire episode (series) on how the US (and sub) governments have fomented a lack of respect and confidence which has degraded so much of our society.
The "God's-eye-view" of human (and cosmological) development cannot help but be one of what we time bound mortals see as "fore ordination" because, as TS Eliot suggested in his transcendent poem, "Burnt Norton" in the eternal realm every "moment" is ALWAYS PRESENT. Nevertheless, as we humans move through our allotments of time we are each called upon to "choose this day what gods we will serve!" O, that we might choose wisely, truly and well. Great show, gentlemen. Thank you.
Unintended consequences are a persistent problem with legislations. Indulging in the contemplation of counterfactuals involves the same thinking processes that are required to imagine possible outcomes of any legislation and can help identify possible unintended consequences.
A great episode! More live shows would be good, beginning with a post-election episode! Live shows on the road would be great also. Uncommon Knowledge's Peter Robinson going to Alabama and doing a two-episodes show with Dr. Condoleezza Rice and her friends was a great departure from the traditional online zoom setup or lecture hall. Visiting popular sites in America with significance would be innovative. I realize this would require resources. Many fans can contribute to this!
Can’t forget Douglas Murray quoting someone saying "you are here because history happened" Amazing quote. If Hitler never got into power I would not be here. Why? My father was seriously wounded at Normandy, was in the hospital for months in London; his nurse was my mother’s best friend. So some of your what-ifs may be you will not be here to even ask the what-if!
Mises seemed to think that the Nazis learned their worst from the Soviets so in the counterfactual of no Soviet Union, then the larger question of the nature of Nazism without their example arises. That is not to say that Nazism wouldn't have rose in Germany. Mises also states the German professors has spent 70 years inculcating their students with the "hysterical hatred of capitalism" and "liberation from the capitalistic West". "When the Soviet policies of mass extermination of all dissenters and of ruthless violence removed the inhibitions against wholesale murder, which still troubled some of the Germans, nothing could any longer stop the advance of Nazism. The Nazis were quick to adopt the Soviet methods. They imported from Russia: the one-party system and the pre-eminence of this party in political life; the paramount position assigned to the secret police; the concentration camps; the administrative execution or imprisonment of all opponents; the extermination of the families of suspects and of exiles; the methods of propaganda; the organization of affiliated parties abroad and their employment for fighting their domestic governments and espionage and sabotage; the use of the diplomatic and consular service for fomenting revolution; and many other things besides. There were nowhere more docile disciples of Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin than the Nazis were." --von Mises, Ludwig (1947). Planned Chaos
A counter factual I would like to hear talked about is, "What if Truman had supported Ho Chi Minh's desire to be Vietnam's George Washington?" How would that have impacted all of Asia and the USA?
Have no idea which George Washington HR McMuster is talking about! He got his timeline totally screwed up. Brave George with his bravado got Braddock killed (and almost got blown up himself). HR as is usual for an American has no perspective of that era. The British were fighting the French in three continents with Newcastle in the House of Lords using Pitt the Elder and Fox against each other in the House Commons (this itself is quite an esoteric feature - the PM had to be from the House of Commons). The Seven Years War up near Saratoga actually had very bad news in the beginning for the British as Montcalm, the French Commander defeated the British handily in the Battle of Carillion and the Indians didn't understand why they couldn't scalp a few of the opposing British. It's called the French and Indian War for a reason. Ultimately Pitt the elder stabilized the situation in the "Ohio Country" (where Braddock had died) and Fort Pitt (where the current Pittsburgh is) prevailed over Duquesne, the French fort in the area. Pitt the Elder came from a very distinguished family who understood how to rage a war. His father Thomas Pitt of Madras had considerable success against Tipu (supported by the French) under the generalship of Shropshire's Clive (later brought back to fight the Battle of Palashi (1757)). Had the French been not squeamish (or their reputation as a Christian nation) about scalping by the Indians (try that as a counterfactual), the British and Franklin's diplomacy where the colonies were going to provide resources and soldiers in the Americas to the Red Coats wouldn't have that appeal. It is estimated that a soldier across the pond cost the King 10-30 times the cost of that soldier in Europe.
Has anyone checked out Dikotter’s books on China? Are they pretty academic, or are they readable for the layman? If the latter, which would be good to start out with?
As a Canadian, it seems we can only define our culture as “not American.” If the revolutionary war had failed, Canada and the USA would have ended up one nation and today’s Canadian culture (whatever it is) would not exist. The question is what would the culture of that larger USA have been and how would the loyalists in Canada have shaped that?
Brilliant discussion as per usual however many of the arguments for alternative futures need to be balanced against the philosophy of hard geopolitics as described by the likes of Dr George Friedman.
As a university student in the 1960's followed by first hand experience in the Navy overseas, in the late1960's and early 1970's, this was a most enjoyable return journey. To be alive today, and witness a discussion such as this production, reaffirms my faith in these marvelous fellows, in the Hoover Institution, and in the United States of America. Thank you all for the trip!
Humans are naturally skeptical. We may be satisfied with an imperfect answer for a little while, but eventually, we will question or re-question the story we've been given, because some aspect of it just doesn't fit. This happens in relatively well-functioning modern Western societies. How much stronger must this tendency be in poorly functioning third world societies.
Like most economists he equates quantity with quality. Most stuff from China is crap and it encourages a throw away culture. My grandmother had a refrigerator/freezer from Frigidaire that is older than my mother and it was still working when my grandmother died. You can't say that about modern day appliances. If items cost more due to tariffs, then we would have a market to repair them like we used to have and less crap would wind up in our land fields.
Thank you for this excellent topic and interesting discussion. In my humble opinion as a scientist, but not historian, the decision of Dang Xiaoping, with the help of Western capital, like from the Waltons, has not only led to the increase of wealth of multitudes of people, but has also resulted in the climate disaster. This makes butterfly wings to hurricanes seem minor in comparison.
The last book of the Christian bible is The Book of Revelation which tells us that history is on an inevitable path towards global catastrophe. The ultimate "spoiler alert" tells us its not a matter of if, but when.
The biggest "What if" for me is what would have happened if the US never dropped the 2 nuclear bombs on Japan and took the island hopping method of beating the enemy. China was too big to turn it into a North Korea so China had to relent. I think slavery in the US would have been abolished without the civil war because states of the North would have suffered employment and business wise.
7 of our 8 five star Army and Naval officers are on record in 1945 stating that A The dropping of the A-Bombs was militarily unnecessary B The dropping of the A-Bomb was morally reprehensible C Both…General’s Dwight Eisenhower, Douglas MacArthur, Henry “Hap” Arnold, and Admiral’s Chester Nimitz, William Leahy, Ernest King, William Halsey.
Counterfactual of the year: Marjorie Taylor Greene does not believe in the significant impact of man on climate change but she opines that the US Government caused recent hurricanes and directed them with unusual precision. 😁😁
Or you can just go on believing willy brown’s mistress did time on her back staring up at his ceiling thinking of all the different ways she could protect your freedoms.
I find her to be very ignorant and silly, but she did not "opine the the government caused the hurricanes,".she said that they can "control the weather" and then listed various instances of them doing it. Let's stop being disingenuous for Internet points. I hate having to defend these people
@@karlernstbuddenbrock371 If you feel that the effects of climate change are exaggerated then check the recent losses of insurance companies to climate-related disasters. Please also read above my other comments on this issue.
It goes a bit unnoticed but Bill Whalen is such a pro 🙏🏻
I could not agree more, he is a humble professional.
Excellent comment. Agreed.
1000%
fr
You're right. Like a baseball umpire, we don't notice a skilled and professional moderator.
Historical counter-factuals are such a good idea for this podcast… well done.
Money quote: "The French are always there when they need you."
😂
Great session! Good to see Andrew Roberts as well!
Always a pleasure to listen to these chaps, thankyou.
This is an absolute masterclass. Three Cheers for their infinite knowledge!
Wonderful discussion! You should do this again. Great to see Roberts.
Love this group. Such bright, thoughtful scholars!
I was in China in 1990. The tank tread marks were still visible in tiananmen square. I stayed in the first western style highrise hotel in Shanghai and was the first westerner into wuhan. It was very noticeable to me that there was a huge dichotomy between the city dwellers and the farmers. City people lived in rundown flats and almost no one had a car. Millions of people on bicycles everywhere. Then we drove into the countryside. Many very nice, new homes owned by the new middle class farmers. In my opinion, it was the farm community that drove the city dwellers to want similar lifestyles. That, in turn, drove the government to see the utility of a market based, free and private economy. And this freedom, exemplified by men like Jack Ma of Alibaba, who scared Xi and his crew to clamp down. As many have said, economic freedom inevitably leads to demands for political freedom and the eventual demise of the CCP.
The gun still rules over economics in china though. Hong kong, etc.
Lord Roberts is a wonderful man. it is my ambition to meet him one day
Same, I check his schedule all the time to see if he’s coming to the Philly area!
Lord Andrew, Sir Niall, and Lt Gen Mcmaster. You know its gonna be good!!!
Be great if they did a 2 hour one with roberts and Kotkin as guests.
"Freewill has won", say Lotd Roberts. Well that was inevitable! Wonderful and intriguing conversation gentlemen.
Another fantastic discussion. Thank you
Counterfactuals are just interesting, educational, and fun. A great panel and a great episode.
HR has the best socks by far!
Crazy! I’m unintentionally listening from the Saratoga battle site! Thank you
Excellent panel, subjects for discussion, and analyses. And an encouraging last word (on free will and responsibility) from all. Thank you for conducting this, and for offering it up to the public via UA-cam.
49:35 AKA never give an order you know won't be obeyed. You could do an entire episode (series) on how the US (and sub) governments have fomented a lack of respect and confidence which has degraded so much of our society.
Thank you all so much for your inspiring discussion!
Great session. Thank you.
(Too damn short)
There are 3 great British historians currently: Lord Roberts, Sir Niall Ferguson, and David Starkey.
I would add David Canadine
They need to get Starkey on here.
It is so nice seeing everyone dressed less casual. You all look better.
Two in one week!?
The "God's-eye-view" of human (and cosmological) development cannot help but be one of what we time bound mortals see as "fore ordination" because, as TS Eliot suggested in his transcendent poem, "Burnt Norton" in the eternal realm every "moment" is ALWAYS PRESENT. Nevertheless, as we humans move through our allotments of time we are each called upon to "choose this day what gods we will serve!" O, that we might choose wisely, truly and well. Great show, gentlemen. Thank you.
Unintended consequences are a persistent problem with legislations. Indulging in the contemplation of counterfactuals involves the same thinking processes that are required to imagine possible outcomes of any legislation and can help identify possible unintended consequences.
Thanks for Uploading.
Bill is looking dapper today.
A great episode! More live shows would be good, beginning with a post-election episode! Live shows on the road would be great also. Uncommon Knowledge's Peter Robinson going to Alabama and doing a two-episodes show with Dr. Condoleezza Rice and her friends was a great departure from the traditional online zoom setup or lecture hall. Visiting popular sites in America with significance would be innovative. I realize this would require resources. Many fans can contribute to this!
All star cast. Only time I wished I lived in Palo Alto so I could attend live.
Tim Walz was in Tianamen Square! He stood in front of a Tank with his Chinese student.
Walz visited China on a humanitarian mission and actually supplied tampons for boys schools! 😂
56:33 500 days of summer also had a fantastic scene with side by side
My counter-factual: Oliver Cromwell in America, 1641.
Can’t forget Douglas Murray quoting someone saying "you are here because history happened" Amazing quote. If Hitler never got into power I would not be here. Why? My father was seriously wounded at Normandy, was in the hospital for months in London; his nurse was my mother’s best friend. So some of your what-ifs may be you will not be here to even ask the what-if!
It's baffling how these guys can be so lucid about the past and yet so blind to the dangers of Trump.
I’m halfway through Roberts Napoleon Biography. Really good history writing.
Nice suit, Bill.
Very fun episode. In the land of the free titles are indeed feudal relics with no significance. But yet somehow i still want one...
Its important to know history so where we can know where we want go
Mises seemed to think that the Nazis learned their worst from the Soviets so in the counterfactual of no Soviet Union, then the larger question of the nature of Nazism without their example arises. That is not to say that Nazism wouldn't have rose in Germany. Mises also states the German professors has spent 70 years inculcating their students with the "hysterical hatred of capitalism" and "liberation from the capitalistic West".
"When the Soviet policies of mass extermination of all dissenters and of ruthless violence removed the inhibitions against wholesale murder, which still troubled some of the Germans, nothing could any longer stop the advance of Nazism. The Nazis were quick to adopt the Soviet methods. They imported from Russia: the one-party system and the pre-eminence of this party in political life; the paramount position assigned to the secret police; the concentration camps; the administrative execution or imprisonment of all opponents; the extermination of the families of suspects and of exiles; the methods of propaganda; the organization of affiliated parties abroad and their employment for fighting their domestic governments and espionage and sabotage; the use of the diplomatic and consular service for fomenting revolution; and many other things besides. There were nowhere more docile disciples of Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin than the Nazis were."
--von Mises, Ludwig (1947). Planned Chaos
A counter factual I would like to hear talked about is, "What if Truman had supported Ho Chi Minh's desire to be Vietnam's George Washington?"
How would that have impacted all of Asia and the USA?
Serialise your books on all the platforms.
Have no idea which George Washington HR McMuster is talking about! He got his timeline totally screwed up. Brave George with his bravado got Braddock killed (and almost got blown up himself). HR as is usual for an American has no perspective of that era. The British were fighting the French in three continents with Newcastle in the House of Lords using Pitt the Elder and Fox against each other in the House Commons (this itself is quite an esoteric feature - the PM had to be from the House of Commons).
The Seven Years War up near Saratoga actually had very bad news in the beginning for the British as Montcalm, the French Commander defeated the British handily in the Battle of Carillion and the Indians didn't understand why they couldn't scalp a few of the opposing British. It's called the French and Indian War for a reason.
Ultimately Pitt the elder stabilized the situation in the "Ohio Country" (where Braddock had died) and Fort Pitt (where the current Pittsburgh is) prevailed over Duquesne, the French fort in the area. Pitt the Elder came from a very distinguished family who understood how to rage a war. His father Thomas Pitt of Madras had considerable success against Tipu (supported by the French) under the generalship of Shropshire's Clive (later brought back to fight the Battle of Palashi (1757)).
Had the French been not squeamish (or their reputation as a Christian nation) about scalping by the Indians (try that as a counterfactual), the British and Franklin's diplomacy where the colonies were going to provide resources and soldiers in the Americas to the Red Coats wouldn't have that appeal. It is estimated that a soldier across the pond cost the King 10-30 times the cost of that soldier in Europe.
Has anyone checked out Dikotter’s books on China? Are they pretty academic, or are they readable for the layman? If the latter, which would be good to start out with?
"No One Expects the Spanish Inquisition" - Monty Python.
I'm not smart, but this discussion seems one of the richest I think I've heard
Where the heck have you been?
Great discussion
Past imperfect. Present tense. Future conditional.
Benedict Arnold was the best general on both sides in the American War of Independence.
We think we live in pivotal times now. Maybe we do, maybe not. In 50 years the true change of this time will show yes or no.
Thanks Niall for the props to the Great White North. I guess we'd have to rebrand if the US revolution hadn't worked out for the rebels.
As a Canadian, it seems we can only define our culture as “not American.” If the revolutionary war had failed, Canada and the USA would have ended up one nation and today’s Canadian culture (whatever it is) would not exist. The question is what would the culture of that larger USA have been and how would the loyalists in Canada have shaped that?
Canada is amoral without our Founding Fathers.
Canadian culture is Moose, Maple, Hockey and Tim Hortons
@@polvoazulgood try.
We need David Starkey on here.
As long as their accent is British, it doesn't matter if it is correct or not
As Kotkin would point out, the Chinese government was and is Leninist. That’s why the CCP stayed power.
Brilliant discussion as per usual however many of the arguments for alternative futures need to be balanced against the philosophy of hard geopolitics as described by the likes of Dr George Friedman.
The night of the beautiful
🇧🇷 BRAZIL is going through a judiciary coup. Please talk about it.
Absolutely correct! Brazil is utterly subject to Judicial Supremacy.
Is Professor Donald Harris still at Stanford?
As a university student in the 1960's followed by first hand experience in the Navy overseas, in the late1960's and early 1970's, this was a most enjoyable return journey. To be alive today, and witness a discussion such as this production, reaffirms my faith in these marvelous fellows, in the Hoover Institution, and in the United States of America. Thank you all for the trip!
⭐️
Humans are naturally skeptical. We may be satisfied with an imperfect answer for a little while, but eventually, we will question or re-question the story we've been given, because some aspect of it just doesn't fit. This happens in relatively well-functioning modern Western societies. How much stronger must this tendency be in poorly functioning third world societies.
Cheap battery powered drill that fails in a year and isn’t worth fixing. It goes in the landfill and one buys a new drill
Like most economists he equates quantity with quality. Most stuff from China is crap and it encourages a throw away culture. My grandmother had a refrigerator/freezer from Frigidaire that is older than my mother and it was still working when my grandmother died. You can't say that about modern day appliances. If items cost more due to tariffs, then we would have a market to repair them like we used to have and less crap would wind up in our land fields.
Thank you for this excellent topic and interesting discussion. In my humble opinion as a scientist, but not historian, the decision of Dang Xiaoping, with the help of Western capital, like from the Waltons, has not only led to the increase of wealth of multitudes of people, but has also resulted in the climate disaster. This makes butterfly wings to hurricanes seem minor in comparison.
The last book of the Christian bible is The Book of Revelation which tells us that history is on an inevitable path towards global catastrophe. The ultimate "spoiler alert" tells us its not a matter of if, but when.
fantesy football is boring but you got them beat ha
How gentlemens will comment Trump-Orban love?
Baron of the Bald and Earl of Economics haha!
Bring Richard Epstein and John Yoo back!
What happened to you
Y’all love counter factuals (Lord Roberts, Sir Ferguson) but have dismissed Buchanan’s “the unnecessary war” out of hand. What gives?
Because it's bollocks. Buchanan isn't offering a counter factual is asserting something completely ludicrous.
H.R. McMaster's voice does not match his face.
The biggest "What if" for me is what would have happened if the US never dropped the 2 nuclear bombs on Japan and took the island hopping method of beating the enemy.
China was too big to turn it into a North Korea so China had to relent. I think slavery in the US would have been abolished without the civil war because states of the North would have suffered employment and business wise.
7 of our 8 five star Army and Naval officers are on record in 1945 stating that A The dropping of the A-Bombs was militarily unnecessary B The dropping of the A-Bomb was morally reprehensible C Both…General’s Dwight Eisenhower, Douglas MacArthur, Henry “Hap” Arnold, and Admiral’s Chester Nimitz, William Leahy, Ernest King, William Halsey.
Counterfactual of the year: Marjorie Taylor Greene does not believe in the significant impact of man on climate change but she opines that the US Government caused recent hurricanes and directed them with unusual precision. 😁😁
Or you can just go on believing willy brown’s mistress did time on her back staring up at his ceiling thinking of all the different ways she could protect your freedoms.
Her contention about as dumb as predicting the planet has 12 years. Again and again
I find her to be very ignorant and silly, but she did not "opine the the government caused the hurricanes,".she said that they can "control the weather" and then listed various instances of them doing it. Let's stop being disingenuous for Internet points. I hate having to defend these people
“Man Changes Climate”; you’ve read the book, now see the movie.
@@karlernstbuddenbrock371 If you feel that the effects of climate change are exaggerated then check the recent losses of insurance companies to climate-related disasters. Please also read above my other comments on this issue.