Hey Shirvan! Your live poll was in really poor taste. I'm Australian and you have no business in trying to pit my country against another. Your job is to report, not stoke tensions... you're not CNN. You are known for having integrity and stoking tensions severely undermines your integrity as a journalist/reporter/historian. Don't sacrifice your integrity so cheaply.
The relationship of Indonesia and Australia not very good at all. Specially what to happen East Timor that Australia help to gain their independence from Indonesia. The Indonesia also mad at Australia nuclear submarine with out the consultantion to them.
One thing not mentioned is the increasing authoritarianism of the Solomon Islands PM. He and his party have recently voted to delay their elections until 2024. This adds much needed context for his lean towards China. It's not just one that is purely economic in nature, as the video implies.
Sogovare has already been Solomons PM four times. He was deposed in 2017 shortly after the underwater cable fiasco. He obviously wants to shore up his domestic power base.
Salomom Islands it's an independent country if they want to sign a treaty with China that isn't any of Australia's business in the same way Australia sign treaties with the US stop putting your nose in others countries business.
From a purely economic standpoint, Australia and China are natural trading partners. Each possesses in abundance what the other lacks. But from a political and cultural standpoint they are the complete opposite. The opposite is true with Australia - US relations. Culturally and politically we are natural allies, but economically the relationship is not so natural. The US are competitors in some areas. Australian relations with the Pacific Islands have not really been an issue of great public importance or much thought. The general public perception is that our economic aid to the south Pacific goes to line the pockets of corrupt local politicians and strong men without much in return. The greatest contribution seems to be in seasonal farm workers and professional rugby and RL players. Great analysis, and great video. Keep up the good work. Always nice to see you direct your attention our way from time to time.
TBH if America wasn't so dysfunctional I'd be all in on federating with the US. It would be win-win. Maybe we could take along our electoral system, points based immigration system and public healthcare system and make it work somehow...
Geez way to be blunt but I'm afraid it's true. Though it ain't that much different in your country too. Except for the fact that it's so fucking big you really can't keep track of all those corrupt bureaucrats. At least we know whose house and shiny new cars to pelt with stones. And the gossip...man it's literally a small world over here.
Seconded. The animosity is definitely starting to grow rapidly. I’ve noticed in the last few years the conversations changed from ‘why provoke China’ to open discussions about the prospect of war in the near future. It surprised me to see the reaction of many (at least in the rural /suburban areas) when the talk of China putting a military base on the Solomon island came up a few months ago, the general consensus was we absolutely shouldn’t let that happen even if it required military intervention given how critical the shipping lanes around those island are. As a young Australian male of fit fighting age I can admit the future is starting to look a bit bleak given how everything is beginning to shape up! 😅
Australia wants to protect its trade routes from China, despite its largest trade partner being China. They’re just playing lapdog to the US as any other Anglo nation
you all really believe that China is going to invade Australia? Maybe you are overestimating how much China can gain from taking over Australia vs. the monumental cost of undertaking such invasion. China historically were just not the exploring type, they were only interested in their peripherals. If they were really territorial expansionist, I thought they would invade Mongolia first, as Mongolia was under their rule for sometime and then gained independence not too long ago. If the Chinese really need something from you, they can just buy right? they are still buying those premium quality iron ores right? maybe the whole thing is just a ruse to get people riled up and vote for the most hawkish party? because spending on defense with blank check and give speeches about max-dick-energy is easier compared to actually making plans to pursuit a policy while balancing the budget to do it.
As a Papua New Guinean, I see my country almost as a pawn in the game of these world powers. My country is beautiful, has 800 languages is very ethnically and culturally diverse and is blessed with natural resources and farmland enough to supply the pacific. Our leaders are too busy filling their own pockets, and sadly my country of only 8 million people is rife with corruption. I hope one day my country can rise to become a world power.
@@cheezeempire3157 Given de difference in size of both land an population, they'll never outshine Australia, but you're much better off with a developed democratic Papua, than the corrupted shit show it's now.
Don't expect much fireworks. China is in economic and demographics decline. What Russia is now is what China will be in 10-20 years IF it's lucky. But worse off if it tries shit because American naval power is vastly superior and China just does not have the time to catch up. Demography is destiny.
It's not just about money, although previous Australian government did cut aid and this is an expected result. Australia and New Zealand can remain relevant in the South Pacific through increasing aid to previous levels but also through reinstating employment visas, education opportunities and direct migration. Australia is a far more attractive employment or education destination than China. These cultural ties will appeal to the masses rather than the current bribes that appeal to the political elite.
They can only push their luck so far before we say fuck it though. US/AU know how important islands are in the pacific, been there done that and all. If China gets a foothold, it'll only be because they were allowed it and there's a plan to rapidly flatten whatever's there. And that's assuming no CIA regime change operations.
Meh… at the end of the day Australia knows not to mess with China too much since they’re the most important trading partner. Makes no sense to antagonize someone you make money with.
@@WhhhhhhjuuuuuH Yes, that's something that everyone who watches his videos needs to understand, they provide a very broad outlook filtered through ( I assume) the Realist school of thought. He can get carried away with the "geopolitics" of it all, and is perhaps too certain in many of the assertions he makes. These vids are no substitute for academic rigor and independent journalism. Having said that, I get the impression that his heart is in the right place, and his videos can be useful for at least synthesizing some material facts on various countries and conflicts.
Australia's former Coalition government took their eye off the ball, and treated the pacific islands governments like 4th class citizens. also the debt traps that many pacific islands have fallen into have left them quite vulnerable to chinese coercion, and honestly australia hasnt been much better. Australia sold a 99 year lease to the port of darwin to a chinese company... chinese investment in australia is massive.
Yep, the leasing of the Darwin port under the LNP was a huge strategic blunder that I can't wrap my head around...I'm starting to think the only explanation is some form of corruption or underhand deal by the decision maker
@@mdstate829 china invests without caring if the project is fanancialkg feesible. It’s about spending money to gain political capital. It also allows for them to directly own infrastructure of countries because a part of the deal China would own the internet and energy companies. Chinas response in the financial crisis in Pakistani was to shut down all of the power plans they built.
Glad Micronesia got the name drop at the end, I was waiting on their mention along with Guam and the other Northern Marianas Islands. Thanks to the Compact of Free Association, Micronesians are able to freely move throughout, seek employment, and live in the U.S. like any other citizen, minus the citizenship. Additionally, while I have no source on this, there has been rumors floating around that the U.S. is planning on making a military base in Yap (one of the islands in the Federated States of Micronesia). China has been making their own moves on the island, sending people to open up businesses there, and last time I visited there was even a Chinese radio station. I am very interested in how the situation will develop in the next couple of decades.
The US will only care about other countries to pursue containment of China. Without China, the US doesn't know you exist. This is the colonizer mentality.
The amazing scale of the United States national and citizen networks is really something that is unparalleled (even by the Commonwealth). A true demonstration of the American Empire's legacy.
That "Harold E Holt" Sub communication base is named after the Australian PM who drowned in the 60s. We also named a community swimming pool after him here in Melbourne.
If we were American we'd make far more of the conspiracy theory that Holt was kidnapped by a Chinese Submarine. That's some REAL Deep State shit right there....
Just here to say a huge THANK YOU to the Caspian Report team! Your videos are an incredible source of information and your production value only keeps growing. Thank you for taking the time to make this content and I hope we as a viewing community are showing enough gratitude!
great video as always! its crazy how much your production quality has improved over the past couple of years - its great to see your channel doing well
An important historical background fact is that during WWII that Japan occupied the Solomon Islands for the specific purpose of cutting off Australia's Sea Lines of Communication with the USA and effectively being able to take Australia hostage.
Indeed, a big part of Imperial Japan's plans in the pacific were to cut Australia off from the US, not because Australia was much of a threat per se, but because it was an extremely important military hub for the US in the pacific.
@@Ktsquare2008 Yes, during a peacetime "cold-war" scenario the Islands could be used as a patrol base. Giving easier access on Australia's east coast, and as far as the Southern Ocean. This combined with China's fleet of SSBN's would turn Australia's greatest asset into a liability. Under wartime conditions, it would pose an existential threat as anchor for fleet operations in the Coral Sea, or amphibious operations in Australia itself. In the event of war, Australia would be forced to pre-emptively destroy facilities on the Islands. To say they are "important" would be a significant understatement.
Top quality. The graphics are becoming better and better, it's a joy for the eyes to watch this, and as usual for the mind to understand the finer points of geo-politics a bit better.
Great video as always. I do think much could have been added if both Taiwan and New Zealand were included as additional patterns/actors when one considers that their interests in the region align closely with that of Canberra and Washington.
Another concise and informative clip from CaspianReport, well done! I very much appreciate the channel's objective analysis of geopolitical and geoeconomic issues. As an open question to the channel's viewers, what other channels would you recommend, that cover similar subject matter, with such a high degree of excellence?
I can remember getting into a pretty toxic thread back then complaining about Australian forces letting the Chinese businesses be targeted during the riots, but when l finally learnt the details it clearly wasn't the Australian forces at fault. Australia had forces on the ground to quell the riots within 48 hours of being asked to come, but by then the locals had already destroyed the china town district and a lot of Chinese businesses. The two big problems were that a lot of locals just don't like the Chinese (there are a bunch of reasons, it's not about race, it's primarily about their way of doing business) and because one of the opposition leaders was trying to push the narrative that Australia let the riots happen in order to undermine the position of the pro Australian government. But it's a bit hard to blame the Australians for the damage that was done before they even got there... Sadly this is pretty normal for the region, the general population are fairly poorly educated and have limited access to local news sources so rumour and misinformation can spread very quickly and easily.
@@sosoable and why would china be needed any more? At least the Solomon islands have a long running history with Australia, including a large population in Australia (and nz).
Greetings from Papua New Guinea. Thank you for finally featuring the region. Very excellent analysis! Good to see that you've highlighted the agency of Pacific Islands Nations in this saga. PNG's moment of playing the super powers came after the 2004 with the state visit by then Prime Minister Somare to Beijing to sign a Nickel mining deal. Somare then followed this up in 2008 with the signing of the PNG LNG deal with Exxon Mobil which was backed by western government. The culmination of PNG playing the powers that be would be at the 2018 APEC Summit in Port Moresby. The game of chess continues today.
Aren’t your people unstable cannibals who believe in witch craft and you’re just seen as pathetic pawns whose incompetence is misperceived as strategy when it’s just chaos? You should be ashamed of yourselves
13:10 Honestly, I don't blame the East Timorese one bit. Australia has screwed them over and over again throughout its history. During the Indonesian occupation our government was silent on the atrocities committed there. And now that we finally helped them achieve independence we take their oil, which they need much more than we do. Australian government can get away with this scummy behaviour because most Australians don't pay any attention to East Timor given that it's far from the major cities and the media doesn't discuss it much. But I think they should be given back the oil, after all, it would earn goodwill and they are poor. We are already rich from so many minerals.
Thank you, thank you, thank you so much. This video was one of the rare sources of analysis that dive into the Pacific geopolitics without the spin usually accompanying the topic. Most of the news from the region are always about Chinese artificial islands or crossings of maritime boundaries and it's been excruciatingly hard to find the factors and the lay-of-the-land so to speak about what's behind said decision-making. Those factors implicate a lot of the usual suspects, but it's always another needle in a haystack to sift through. So once again - thank you so much for sticking with the movers and motivators shaping the regional spheres of influence. Please keep it up :)
I don’t think it’s purely strategic or economic national interest. Maybe 10 years ago, I would have been reluctant to say it is shaping up as a Cold War of civilizations; but with Ukraine - it feels like these teams are solidifying between East and West.
yeah, this vid definitely made it sound like Australia was just trying to stop china spreading, for the sake spite. Like stopping the the Huawei contract in Solomon's, never saying that China 100% Huawei equipment as a conduit for espionage. There are reasons for these actions
The funny thing is china does have any real Ally’s. Most of Asia hates them. Russia thinks they are the real power and think them better then china. People like to joke about china owning africa but the reality is these African nations will nationalize the infrastructure china built as soon as china trying to use them against their wishes. Literally North Korea is Chinese’s closest ally. Let that sink in. Meanwhile the US has direct allience with most of Europe, most of east asia and the pacific, and less talked about has a direct military alliance with basically all of South America.
This has been my thought as well. Anyone who has taken more than a cursory look at the Pacific theater of WW2 understands there is value that extends beyond the economic. Shirvan has indeed covered this to some extent outlining the various island chains and China's plans to secure these as a means of expanding its control over the Pacific. Naturally, the folks who won that control with blood 80 years ago aren't interested in giving up that influence and the buffer it provides for the security of their own countries. We're seeing jockeying in the Pacific right now that reminds me a lot of the jockeying for influence in Eastern Europe during the Cold War.
@@kma3647 Absolutely correct to mention WW2. My grandfather was in the army in Darwin when it was badly bombed by Japan. The CCP "diplomats" and many of the recent pro CCP Chinese mainlanders that live in Australia are very nationalistic, and Aussies notice! The CCP idiots starting a trade war, and nuclear saber-rattling woke up the Aussies that were dreaming dreams of being rich in China. We remember when Japan invaded PNG and attempted to cut us off from the USA. We had to fight them off, at great cost of lives. We won't be suckers the next time around. The result in Solomon's is disappointing, but Solomon's is still a democracy, and we will demonstrate to the Solomon's that they will be happier with a government friendly to us. We won't treat them as second class citizens in their own country, like the racist Han Chinese undoubtedly will.
I was literally assigned an essay on this for monday. Thank you very much for the informative entertainment. I'm a big fan of the channel, hope you the best.
Not only is your information always thought-provoking and impartial, but your graphics have improved substantially. In addition, your comment section is usually full of thoughtful comments which motivate me to dig deeper. Thanks again for your nuanced analysis.
From a Pacific perpsective, you covered the topic pretty well, but in relation to Pacific geopolitics, the abscence of New Zealand in this video is quite significant. From a global perspective, it's easy to percieve NZ as a non-power, but this is one region where it has significant and outsized influence, often outstripping Australia (particularly in Polynesia) as it isn't as aligned with the US. New Zealand generally has much more friendly and constructive relations with PI countries, whereas Australia relishes its middle-power status and is considerably more forceful in the region, to the dislike of PI countries. This is part of the reason why the Solomons deal happened, Australia (most prominently under the Morrison govt) hasn't been particularly well-liked in the region mostly due to climate change-related issues and general ignorance of the region, which is why the Albanese government has made such an effort to make amends. But, both NZ and Aus made mistakes in the aftermath of the Fiji coup in the region generally that have allowed China to usurp so much influence in the vaccum left behind. New Zealand and Australia have some of the worst records of neo-colonialism that they poorly attempt to brush under the carpet, from pure negligence in Samoa that led to the deaths of thousands during the Spanish Flu on the part of New Zealand, the cancellation of thousands of Samoans post-1949 NZ citizenship in the 1980s under Muldoon's dawn raid policy in NZ, or the destruction of Nauru for phosphate mining by Australia. You can't really blame the Pacific for leaning towards China when it has been treated like a dusty welcome mat by New Zealand and Australia since their independence. The telecom point is particularly relevant. NZ and Australia spy on pretty much all Pacific comms for the US, it's been a contentious issue in New Zealand where many NZ citizens live in PI countries, where the NZ government is conducting mass intellgence-gathering on their own citizens. NZ and AU send all the unprocessed data to the US, and only get back what's relevant to them. The scale of intelligence-gathering in PI countries by NZ and AU is astronomical, some people joke you can hear the line click to record international calls as it passes through the NZ exchange. Honiara's Chinatown is also quite relevant. When the riots happened, it is claimed that Australian personnel were told not to protect Chinese-owned infrastructure and businesses, shooting themselves in the foot.
@@youssouferfromaids825 NZ cares significantly about it. They've pretty much reinvented their entire foreign policy towards the Pacific under Ardern's term and siginificantly changed their language and rhetoric surrounding the region. The Pacific is the foundation of NZ's entire foreign policy.
NZ does exhibit a high cross cultural sensibility, Australian doesn’t, despite the billions of dollars Australia provides in aid to the Pacific countries. Nonetheless, NZ has not held its weight on diplomatic and defence matters to constrain China. Herein, not supporting Australian and the United States, while expecting the aforementioned to protect NZ.
Auckland is the largest Polynesian city in the world and as such has pretty strong ties with the pacific culturally and through friends and family. I'd agree with you about historic wrongdoings between NZ and the pacific, but compared with Ozzy, there has been few in the last 3 decades, apart from said Intel gathering. Militarily Australia is tending down the armament route, whereas NZ is focused on disaster relief for the pacific primarily
The United States and Australia would be generally aligned based upon values and shared heritage alone. Australia gets the protection to not be a vassal state of China and the United States gets a staging area for our interests. Each side gets what they want. Being cynical and dismissing values and ideals doesn’t paint a complete picture of the world.
No, but it has to be understood that there's a power differential. Shirvan notes it. Many times, the two partners may not want to make note of it. Some things are better left unsaid in a relationship like this. Do you tell your junior partner that you're the big guy and your calls matter more than his? Never, unless you have to, because it ruins the relationship. The US and UK have a similar relationship. For pride's sake, neither side would ever call the UK the "junior partner", and yet after WW2, it became so. Neither side treats each other that way (a good thing). The rare times when one side tries to impose itself, sometimes creates tension that neither really want. I suspect this is the case with many alliances. The new Russia-China alliance puts Russia as the "little brother." China is unlikely ever to say that directly, nor flex that kind of muscle if it's not absolutely necessary.
"gets ... to not be a vassal state of China" I guess you're saying they prefer to be a vassal state of the USA than of China, because they're okay with American values and want close connections with the USA for cultural reasons, rather than being disconnected from them.
Australia's shared heritage with America is going away. America's children are majority minority and there is constant propaganda telling us to hate our own heritage basically constantly fed to our children. I really think that Europeans and Australians don't realize how far America is drifting from them, and how quickly, due to generations of massive, unabated illegal immigration. Once the boomers die off, America will no longer have a non-hispanic white majority.
As a Kiwi Sāmoan, I want China AND America OUT of the pacific! We need a better international cooperative relationship than the Pacific Island Forum! We need to secure our own geopolitical sovereignty!
6:42 It's interesting how on this graph, Fortescue is the only mining company not majority American-owned. Because its owner, Andrew Forrest, is the only Australian mining magnate who has criticised the government's hawkish China policy 🤔
As someone who works for FMG it surprises me that anyone would be surprised to learn that the one individual with the most to lose from Sino-Australian tension would also be the most outspoken against those tensions. But, ultimately, China has placed sanctions on Australia, not the other way around. So blaming Australia for China's aggression is akin to blaming Ukraine for Russian aggression. That doesn't stop people trying though, does it?
@@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns Why the hell would Wall St. want to spur tensions between Australia and China when they have most to lose from it? That makes no sense at all!
@@tigerpjm how much do you think Australia is going to pay for these nuclear submarines and who they are going to pay it to? "War is a racket." - General Smedley Butler Do you really think that the US Congress has the Ukrainian people in their hearts when they gifted $60 Billion (or whatever it's up to) in arms? That's just a cheque for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and General Electric paid by US taxpayers. And guess which companies hire former US Congressmen? The Ukrainians didn't pay crack head Hunter Biden $50,000 per month for his energy expertise.
When an Australian Prime Minister considered closing Pine Gap in the 70s, the US was instrumental in getting rid of him. The late queen also had a hand in his removal.
Oh dear, we have a deluded nutter spreading deranged conspiracy theories. But neither Holt, nor Whitlam were removed by the Yanks, no matter how much that might suit a conspiracy theorists agenda.
Which is why I’m extremely distrustful of the US government. Australia shouldn’t rely or depend on anyone, not China nor the US. Australia should at the very least *Try* to become self sufficient as much as possible.
@@Quinn_Falkenheim I'm glad you emphasise "try". You at least know what we really are: Pine Gap Island... a sort of a really large Guam. Not even the 51st state.
@@Quinn_Falkenheim Are you ready for Australia to secure tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals then, because that is what it would take to be neutral in our neighbourhood.
PNG was shrewd in their dealing with Huawei. By playing the China card, it manage to pry open Canberra's purse strings when it's Pacific aid program where at it's lowest in decades.
I think you understimate how important Australia is to the US. The US's main intelligence gathering operation in Asia Pacific are housed in Australia and Australian military alliance with the US is pretty much all but guaranteed.
Where do you usually go to for your info when researching? This geopolitical economic approach is very refreshing and inciteful. Do you have any go-to publications for this kind of angle on global issues?
Australia is not China, but Australia really needs to treat the various Pacific Islands, and especially the people, with more respect. They do not want to be perceived as arrogant overlords of vassal states, like is starting to be China. Australia is rich enough to give these small islands a bone or two. Also, the public perception of Australia is a hedge against island nation leaders whose secret bank accounts get a dramaticly large deposit.
@@gonzalos4379 No, it's just a common saying in English. Australians, as people, generally have a high opinion of their pacific neighbours and want good relations. The reaction to the plight of Tuvalu and the inaction of the Morrison government, was quite strong. I've found most Australians I talk to are pretty embarrassed by the diplomatic antics of their previous government.
Just read the comment section and the joke Aussies made about cannot see eyes to eyes because they are a foot taller than Asians. Not exactly stuff endearing Australia to SEA and PI countries
@@Peizxcv 'Aussies' or a joke you saw one person make? I didn't see it, but assholes exist everywhere. Pacific islanders can be tall af alot of the time though, one of the reasons I quit rugby, bc I couldn't compete with some of the huge people we were playing.
@@jamoblair7245 It's a common saying that used in this context has the worst connotations, and I do think sooner or later Australia, along with the U.S., will have to come to terms with the idea of sharing power with the rest of the world.
Thank Heavens we have an adult in the White House who cares about trans-Pacific interests, and for the good guys in general, instead of dismissing others seemed undesirable as "poor, brown, 3rd world shit-holes"'. We stand strong with our Pacific friends!
Excellent tracking of not often mentioned actions of the Australian military done on altruistic pretext and followed by economic predation. Shows the post-WW2 European modus operati: endless power grabs masked under some flimsy pseudohumanitarian claptrap. Also. The very recent extension actions of the US in this underexamined theater were appreciated. This was one of the better and more original Caspian Reports.
This is incorrect. Australia would have been far better off to support indonesias invasion from an economic perspective as that border was more favourable to Australia
I feel you've really undersold the role that Sogavare as an individual is playing in the deterioration of the Solomons-Australia bilateral relationship. Most of the Pacific states have at least the beginnings of solid democratic traditions, in large part because of Australian and New Zealand pushing this as part of their aid packages. But Sogavare is doing his best to unwind this. He's one of the many post-democratic figures around the world, like Victor Orban and his ilk. This is facilitated in part by legitimate political support based on inter-island (effectively tribal) political blocs, but also by pretty blatant and open corruption. It's no secret that the Chinese influence in the Solomons had been fairly directly purchased. There's very little Australia can do, especially since elections have now been delayed (see above in the post-democratic point). I personally hope that if they're in any way competent ASIS are busily preparing to ensure Australia's interests are... Informally represented in that election, but that's way beyond my pay grade.
So you want neo colonialism lolo Also those "aid" packages also open up these nations for Australian and New Zealand economic take over. You think you guys don't buy elections with aid promises and your "informal" push for interest in countries you helped to colonize. It's crazy how you can imply neo colonialism yet still talk about democracy lol they want elections so they can push their man into the ring as to keep the Solomons in their pocket. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Islanders living in poverty making your "aid" meaningless. These countries need development not "aid". This is why China is winning in the Global South. PS Australia trades and give aid to Cameroon, who has been ruled by the longest sitting non royal head of state......you guys don't care about democracy lol
Ever heard of something called blowback? It's very common in history for the CIA or MI6 to overthrow an imperfect Government, in favour of someone else and that country ends up with either the Ayatollah of Iran or Augusto Pinochet. But Sogavare is no less corrupt than any other leader. Ever heard of Frank Bainimarama? He didn't exactly come to power in free and fair elections. Continued political espionage undermines what democracy and laws that sovereign countries have. These are high stakes games that often have consequences. And consequences could be that we push the Solomons into the arms of China, just like the way Timor-Leste President Ramos Horta is openly courting China... after we spied on his Government during Timor Sea negotiations.
@@bruderschweigen6889 I've not had much dealings with International Politics, personally. But I have dealt with family and friends with drug addictions and domestic violence. you can go in swinging and throw your weight around, and they might cower for a while, but ultimately go back, often for the worst. but if they know 'Hey mate, Im here for you, just say the word' and just kinda make sure they know you dont approve but your still their friend regardless, they will actually ask for help without shame, and get the help they need. might hurt, but at least its their call, so it actually sticks. thats my experience anyway. mind you, we did kinda fuck over East Timor, that wasnt cool...
@@bruderschweigen6889 would wreck relations with the other Pacific Island nations, provoke a crisis that would result in all of them hosting a Chinese military base to not be the next in line.
You didnt explain clearly why there is bad relations between Australia and China. China wanted their 5G texhnology to be installed in Australia. Australia said “no” and so started the downhill in relations
Yes and no. From memory the USA and UK make up the majority by a long way, China cannot compete to put it blunt. I can't remember but it's either China at 8th or 3rd biggest either 2% of 10% by comparison UK is about 20% and USA about 30%.
@@brianlong2334 it’s less of the amount and more of what they’re taking over. Stuff like the water supply, especially in an arid country like Australia could completely kneecap the nation
@@ChronicAndIronic Australia estimates that it can support a population of 120million with surface water before having to get ground water, and or major desalination plant's for ocean water to freshwater. Australia receives about 420mms of rainfall a year the USA receives 760mm by comparison. Australia foreign water ownership is only about 11% of the total, and Canada owns the most about 2% followed by China, USA and UK all near each other with 1% to 1.5% depending on the year it can fluctuate around and they often sell off to each other ect.
*The Three Golden Rule Of 🌏Geopolitics* _Rule #1 : There are no permanent Friends,Just Temporary Interests_ _Rule #2 : Never Trust 🇨🇳 China_ _Rule #3 : Never Depend On 🇺🇲 USA_ _Rule#4 : Never Forget Rule 2 & 3_
Lets not forget that the most of the Australian and Chinese people want to enjoy life and then there are some organisations and politicians that want to battle each other.
That's really very sweet and Disney. But basically it's about the competition for finite resources. Who gets the most resources gets to enjoy life. Who doesn't get the resources gets revolution.
My favourite part of this video is when the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said to Xi Jingping "It's Albanese time" and then he went to Beijing and Albanesed all over the place
I say that we Australians Americans New Zealanders Canadians and English are all one people and no treaty is needed we would all die for one another no questions asked
Never. It does not (and will never have) the capability of travelling more than a couple hundred kilometers from it's own shores. Nor would it want to... it would reveal how actually incapable the Chinese navy is, much like how Putin has accidentally revealed how incapable his previously vaunted army is... stretching too hard as a closed off, ignorant authoritarian power always ends in disaster.
As outlined early in the video Australia has thrown in its lot with the US. It acts as an extension of the US and gets security and economic benefits out of it. So to your question, it's really about why the US-China relationship has deteriorated.
@@koharumi1 In one sense, yes, but I feel "puppet" implies more direct control by the master than exists here. The Australian elite more or less willingly subjugate Australia to the US, and they gain significant benefits from it. However, they know that if they were to attempt to regain their sovereignty the US can inflict a lot of damage and instability on Australia, and probably force the country to abandon the attempt. In this way Australia is trapped in the alliance and doing US bidding in their region.
@@koharumi1 less a puppet and more a vassal. Australia sees its security as tied in with the continuation of US hegemony in the Indo-Pacfic. The realisation that China posed an actual threat to this order came slow at first, then quite fast. There might also be some level of learning from history - prior to WWII Australia was reliant on Britain for protection, and failed to take the rise of Japan seriously. As a result Australia found itself in a war it hadn't prepared for, fighting ships made from exported Australian iron. More surprising is the speed of the shift in Australian public opinion towards China - the Lowy Institute annual polling around this is quite interesting. Possibly undercurrents of racism in Australian society and the fact that Covid originated in China helped.
@@leotavira7854 I don't think it has to do with racism as such, but rather, CCP China's complete attack on Australian export economy -- banning imports of Australian coal, ore, wines, etc.. All because Australian government asked for an investigation as to Covid's origin in Wuhan. Australians didn't take to kindly to this economic extortion.
- Australia cuts aid to the Pacific - China starts to fill the gap - Australia to get nuclear subs - Solomons signs deal with China - Australia: surprised pikachu face
We have 9 years of Liberal Party (centre right) Government to thank for that here! They destroyed AusAID in 2014 and cut the aid budget further until the ‘pacific step up’ but it was too late by then.
That was thanks to the incompetence and arrogance of the previous conservative government. The very first thing that the new Labor government did after winning the election was to send the new Prime Minister and Foreign Minister on a tour to every single Pacific neighbour to shore up support. Even though this received backlash back home (you've only just become the guy in charge, why did you immediately go to Indonesia?) but I think they did the right thing, they can win their people back but once a neighbour has switched to China, they aren't switching back.
@@mrsnrub282 The only people who have criticised Albanese's overseas trips are LNP Sky News hacks. The idea that diplomacy requires more than shouting at people is a concept too advanced for their pea-brains.
@@mrsnrub282 oh yeah Albo going bike riding with Joko was excellent diplomacy! There is also symbolism to the bicycle, in that it represented both Joko’s and Albo’s humble beginnings. Indeed the conservative media attacked him for it but no one listens to them, the last election is evidence that most people see through it now. Indonesia should be Australia’s most important friend and partner.
That’s all because of the incompetence of the previous government we just had in now that’s labor’s back in we should and are seeing large positive changes
About the "Australian Geopolitics" thing: 1. Aus is a descendent of the Bri'ish 'mpire so nah doi, and was at war in the indo pacific with the only other western power there being the U.S 2. Saying Aus 'joins' the winning side is just flat out wrong, they go to war with their allies who then collectively win, at no point has Aus jumped from one side to another 3. The Aus Parliament is a shit show, nothing that comes out of Canberra is calculated
The real question is: Which countries will take in the people of the Pacific when their islands are underwater by the end of the century? (Hint - it's not China)
@@overdose8329 What is interesting to me is that these couple million people who live in over a dozen countries administer thousands of islands, a vast percentage of the pacific EEZ, and over 7% of the UN vote. All with a population of about equal to annual legal and illegal immigration in the US.
@@sosoable While I'm disappointed in your ignorance in geography, I'm not surprised. Australia has many cities by the coast, some are better off than others; each one can move further inland if need be. Parts of Sydney are 200 meters in elevation. Canberra has an elevation of over 500 meters. Compare that to Palau and Tuvalu's maximum elevation of 5 meters or Kiribati's 2 meters to understand the folly of your logic.
@@sosoable Australia is one of the most geologically stable continents on the planet, being in the centre of a tectonic plate. Learn stuff before you make stupid comments.
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eeeh
Hey Shirvan! Your live poll was in really poor taste. I'm Australian and you have no business in trying to pit my country against another. Your job is to report, not stoke tensions... you're not CNN. You are known for having integrity and stoking tensions severely undermines your integrity as a journalist/reporter/historian. Don't sacrifice your integrity so cheaply.
honestly your voice alone gives your videos are surtain spicy extra
@@tyresesummers5829 Easy! NZ has 1 earthquake island, 1 super volcano island, and face a constant threat of invasion from Antarctic penguins.
The relationship of Indonesia and Australia not very good at all. Specially what to happen East Timor that Australia help to gain their independence from Indonesia. The Indonesia also mad at Australia nuclear submarine with out the consultantion to them.
One thing not mentioned is the increasing authoritarianism of the Solomon Islands PM. He and his party have recently voted to delay their elections until 2024. This adds much needed context for his lean towards China. It's not just one that is purely economic in nature, as the video implies.
Very strong point, I didn't know this, did a quick search a and was very surprised
Sogovare has already been Solomons PM four times. He was deposed in 2017 shortly after the underwater cable fiasco. He obviously wants to shore up his domestic power base.
Solomon Islands could be the next Cuba but better tbh, Australia would flip the fk out if that were to happen.
@@elephantman2112 "Shore up", not "sure up".
Salomom Islands it's an independent country if they want to sign a treaty with China that isn't any of Australia's business in the same way Australia sign treaties with the US stop putting your nose in others countries business.
From a purely economic standpoint, Australia and China are natural trading partners. Each possesses in abundance what the other lacks. But from a political and cultural standpoint they are the complete opposite. The opposite is true with Australia - US relations. Culturally and politically we are natural allies, but economically the relationship is not so natural. The US are competitors in some areas.
Australian relations with the Pacific Islands have not really been an issue of great public importance or much thought. The general public perception is that our economic aid to the south Pacific goes to line the pockets of corrupt local politicians and strong men without much in return. The greatest contribution seems to be in seasonal farm workers and professional rugby and RL players.
Great analysis, and great video. Keep up the good work. Always nice to see you direct your attention our way from time to time.
TBH if America wasn't so dysfunctional I'd be all in on federating with the US. It would be win-win. Maybe we could take along our electoral system, points based immigration system and public healthcare system and make it work somehow...
@@IanGerritsen I can live without a mass shooting every second day.
Geez way to be blunt but I'm afraid it's true. Though it ain't that much different in your country too. Except for the fact that it's so fucking big you really can't keep track of all those corrupt bureaucrats. At least we know whose house and shiny new cars to pelt with stones. And the gossip...man it's literally a small world over here.
@@IanGerritsen So you want to join the US...but then turn it into Australia? Are you sure you even know what you want?
nope aussie have big problem with indonesia
As an australian I can unequivocally tell you we do not exactly "see eye to eye" with China which is putting it mildly.
Seconded. The animosity is definitely starting to grow rapidly. I’ve noticed in the last few years the conversations changed from ‘why provoke China’ to open discussions about the prospect of war in the near future. It surprised me to see the reaction of many (at least in the rural
/suburban areas) when the talk of China putting a military base on the Solomon island came up a few months ago, the general consensus was we absolutely shouldn’t let that happen even if it required military intervention given how critical the shipping lanes around those island are. As a young Australian male of fit fighting age I can admit the future is starting to look a bit bleak given how everything is beginning to shape up! 😅
My views went from "can china and russia be that bad?" To "a war with either is gonna happen and it should happen when we are ready".
How can we see eye to eye, most Aussies are about a foot taller !!!
Australia wants to protect its trade routes from China, despite its largest trade partner being China. They’re just playing lapdog to the US as any other Anglo nation
you all really believe that China is going to invade Australia? Maybe you are overestimating how much China can gain from taking over Australia vs. the monumental cost of undertaking such invasion. China historically were just not the exploring type, they were only interested in their peripherals. If they were really territorial expansionist, I thought they would invade Mongolia first, as Mongolia was under their rule for sometime and then gained independence not too long ago. If the Chinese really need something from you, they can just buy right? they are still buying those premium quality iron ores right?
maybe the whole thing is just a ruse to get people riled up and vote for the most hawkish party? because spending on defense with blank check and give speeches about max-dick-energy is easier compared to actually making plans to pursuit a policy while balancing the budget to do it.
As a Papua New Guinean, I see my country almost as a pawn in the game of these world powers. My country is beautiful, has 800 languages is very ethnically and culturally diverse and is blessed with natural resources and farmland enough to supply the pacific. Our leaders are too busy filling their own pockets, and sadly my country of only 8 million people is rife with corruption. I hope one day my country can rise to become a world power.
It’ll never happen Australia rules over Oceania and it’s becoming more powerful each year, New Guinea will always be in its shadow
@@cheezeempire3157 Tell him he's dreamin'
You can’t become a world power with only 8 million people
@@cheezeempire3157 Given de difference in size of both land an population, they'll never outshine Australia, but you're much better off with a developed democratic Papua, than the corrupted shit show it's now.
So you wanna become the bully? For shame.
In Africa, we say: when two elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers.
Its going to be amazing to watch power plays of two massive land masses throwing massive amounts of money to try attain the support of tiny islands.
Don't expect much fireworks. China is in economic and demographics decline. What Russia is now is what China will be in 10-20 years IF it's lucky. But worse off if it tries shit because American naval power is vastly superior and China just does not have the time to catch up. Demography is destiny.
It's not just about money, although previous Australian government did cut aid and this is an expected result. Australia and New Zealand can remain relevant in the South Pacific through increasing aid to previous levels but also through reinstating employment visas, education opportunities and direct migration. Australia is a far more attractive employment or education destination than China. These cultural ties will appeal to the masses rather than the current bribes that appeal to the political elite.
They can only push their luck so far before we say fuck it though. US/AU know how important islands are in the pacific, been there done that and all. If China gets a foothold, it'll only be because they were allowed it and there's a plan to rapidly flatten whatever's there. And that's assuming no CIA regime change operations.
History in the making.
Meh… at the end of the day Australia knows not to mess with China too much since they’re the most important trading partner. Makes no sense to antagonize someone you make money with.
I've always loved that Shirvan cares about and is generally informed about my country, Australia.
Dude he is way off it's not every funny the guy things everything is a strategy game and that's the lens he views everything through.
@@WhhhhhhjuuuuuH Yes, that's something that everyone who watches his videos needs to understand, they provide a very broad outlook filtered through ( I assume) the Realist school of thought. He can get carried away with the "geopolitics" of it all, and is perhaps too certain in many of the assertions he makes. These vids are no substitute for academic rigor and independent journalism. Having said that, I get the impression that his heart is in the right place, and his videos can be useful for at least synthesizing some material facts on various countries and conflicts.
He seems to be biased against Australia imo
@@WhhhhhhjuuuuuH i agree not everything is rational strategy.
He does not care about Australia. He is generally critical of it.
Australia's former Coalition government took their eye off the ball, and treated the pacific islands governments like 4th class citizens.
also the debt traps that many pacific islands have fallen into have left them quite vulnerable to chinese coercion, and honestly australia hasnt been much better.
Australia sold a 99 year lease to the port of darwin to a chinese company... chinese investment in australia is massive.
Yep, the leasing of the Darwin port under the LNP was a huge strategic blunder that I can't wrap my head around...I'm starting to think the only explanation is some form of corruption or underhand deal by the decision maker
@@nickglen3944 It's not a strategic blunder or even a concern. Just free money.
@@nickglen3944 not a blunder but treason
@@mdstate829 china invests without caring if the project is fanancialkg feesible. It’s about spending money to gain political capital. It also allows for them to directly own infrastructure of countries because a part of the deal China would own the internet and energy companies. Chinas response in the financial crisis in Pakistani was to shut down all of the power plans they built.
Yep - LNP don't really care about security. If it makes money for their mates (eg selling the Port Of Darwin) they'll do it.
Glad Micronesia got the name drop at the end, I was waiting on their mention along with Guam and the other Northern Marianas Islands. Thanks to the Compact of Free Association, Micronesians are able to freely move throughout, seek employment, and live in the U.S. like any other citizen, minus the citizenship. Additionally, while I have no source on this, there has been rumors floating around that the U.S. is planning on making a military base in Yap (one of the islands in the Federated States of Micronesia). China has been making their own moves on the island, sending people to open up businesses there, and last time I visited there was even a Chinese radio station. I am very interested in how the situation will develop in the next couple of decades.
The US is pivoting and reanalying to the Pacific, BIG TIME!
The US will only care about other countries to pursue containment of China. Without China, the US doesn't know you exist. This is the colonizer mentality.
The amazing scale of the United States national and citizen networks is really something that is unparalleled (even by the Commonwealth). A true demonstration of the American Empire's legacy.
They're doing the same right next door in Philippines
@@kingace6186 legacy? The US is still an empire lol
That "Harold E Holt" Sub communication base is named after the Australian PM who drowned in the 60s. We also named a community swimming pool after him here in Melbourne.
Kinda ironic
To this day, I'm not sure if that swimming pool's name was just poorly chosen or a dark joke. Neither would surprise me.
@@elephantman2112 I understand it was deliberate. Yes, a dark joke but it's a good one: learn to swim or you'll be abducted by a Chinese submarine.
And disappearing without a trace is called "doing a Harry".
If we were American we'd make far more of the conspiracy theory that Holt was kidnapped by a Chinese Submarine.
That's some REAL Deep State shit right there....
Very high quality video! Some of the best geopolitical analysis on this website. Incredible research volume and accuracy.
Just here to say a huge THANK YOU to the Caspian Report team! Your videos are an incredible source of information and your production value only keeps growing. Thank you for taking the time to make this content and I hope we as a viewing community are showing enough gratitude!
50 Yuan.
great video as always! its crazy how much your production quality has improved over the past couple of years - its great to see your channel doing well
An important historical background fact is that during WWII that Japan occupied the Solomon Islands for the specific purpose of cutting off Australia's Sea Lines of Communication with the USA and effectively being able to take Australia hostage.
Indeed, a big part of Imperial Japan's plans in the pacific were to cut Australia off from the US, not because Australia was much of a threat per se, but because it was an extremely important military hub for the US in the pacific.
@@JustAnotherAccount8 are the Islands an important hub now?
@@Ktsquare2008 Yes, during a peacetime "cold-war" scenario the Islands could be used as a patrol base. Giving easier access on Australia's east coast, and as far as the Southern Ocean. This combined with China's fleet of SSBN's would turn Australia's greatest asset into a liability. Under wartime conditions, it would pose an existential threat as anchor for fleet operations in the Coral Sea, or amphibious operations in Australia itself. In the event of war, Australia would be forced to pre-emptively destroy facilities on the Islands. To say they are "important" would be a significant understatement.
How long was Japan able to hold those islands? 4 or 5 months
American and Australian blood and treasure are the only reasons The Solomon Islands exist as an independent country.
Bingo!
Top quality. The graphics are becoming better and better, it's a joy for the eyes to watch this, and as usual for the mind to understand the finer points of geo-politics a bit better.
Thank you for this very objective, honest and not biased documentary. Your videos keep getting better 💪🏻
I really like the map with EEZ borders. Can you please say where you obtained that, unless it’s proprietary of course.
Ditto here. The best I could find on a short Google search was this one: whap.pbworks.com/f/1557704224/oceania.jpg
CaspianReport is known to use a lot of ArcGIS datasets and overlays as far as I know in their animations.
Agree. It made the oceania area look busier
Perfect way to start a Saturday morning. A cup of java and the latest Caspian Report. Coffee ☕️
Great video as always. I do think much could have been added if both Taiwan and New Zealand were included as additional patterns/actors when one considers that their interests in the region align closely with that of Canberra and Washington.
What a great video. You give such incredible information and points of view that most of us are not able to see. Forever your loyal fan.
Your videos are amazing, thank you so much for all the effort you put into them! It is greatly appreciated
Always interesting to hear what my country is doing 🇦🇺
Us Lapdog
@@dingdingdingding2871 enjoy your lockdowns x
Another concise and informative clip from CaspianReport, well done!
I very much appreciate the channel's objective analysis of geopolitical and geoeconomic issues.
As an open question to the channel's viewers, what other channels would you recommend, that cover similar subject matter, with such a high degree of excellence?
Polymatter, Hoog, GeoHub
I have watched every single Video from Caspian Report. Best channel to recommend is 'Good Times Bad Times'
@@Volition1001 Thanks Cameron.
I also recommend "Real Life Lore"
@asianometry and @hypohysterical
I may have spelt incorrect but they’re both excellent too.
Excellent report. Thanks
As an Aussie who loves Chinese History, this is my dream video!!
Hey buddy! Found your channel through shanky boi. Love from the west coast
Chinese history makes Game of Thrones look like a kids bedtime program
i like west Taiwan history to. you know back before the ccp
I can remember getting into a pretty toxic thread back then complaining about Australian forces letting the Chinese businesses be targeted during the riots, but when l finally learnt the details it clearly wasn't the Australian forces at fault. Australia had forces on the ground to quell the riots within 48 hours of being asked to come, but by then the locals had already destroyed the china town district and a lot of Chinese businesses. The two big problems were that a lot of locals just don't like the Chinese (there are a bunch of reasons, it's not about race, it's primarily about their way of doing business) and because one of the opposition leaders was trying to push the narrative that Australia let the riots happen in order to undermine the position of the pro Australian government. But it's a bit hard to blame the Australians for the damage that was done before they even got there... Sadly this is pretty normal for the region, the general population are fairly poorly educated and have limited access to local news sources so rumour and misinformation can spread very quickly and easily.
@@sosoable and why would china be needed any more? At least the Solomon islands have a long running history with Australia, including a large population in Australia (and nz).
@@Jake12220 悠久的种族灭绝历史？
Greetings from Papua New Guinea. Thank you for finally featuring the region. Very excellent analysis! Good to see that you've highlighted the agency of Pacific Islands Nations in this saga. PNG's moment of playing the super powers came after the 2004 with the state visit by then Prime Minister Somare to Beijing to sign a Nickel mining deal. Somare then followed this up in 2008 with the signing of the PNG LNG deal with Exxon Mobil which was backed by western government. The culmination of PNG playing the powers that be would be at the 2018 APEC Summit in Port Moresby. The game of chess continues today.
Aren’t your people unstable cannibals who believe in witch craft and you’re just seen as pathetic pawns whose incompetence is misperceived as strategy when it’s just chaos?
You should be ashamed of yourselves
Can't wait for PNG to get a team in the NRL
Keep up the good work Shirvan. We all need your insight.
13:10 Honestly, I don't blame the East Timorese one bit. Australia has screwed them over and over again throughout its history. During the Indonesian occupation our government was silent on the atrocities committed there. And now that we finally helped them achieve independence we take their oil, which they need much more than we do.
Australian government can get away with this scummy behaviour because most Australians don't pay any attention to East Timor given that it's far from the major cities and the media doesn't discuss it much. But I think they should be given back the oil, after all, it would earn goodwill and they are poor. We are already rich from so many minerals.
Thank you, thank you, thank you so much.
This video was one of the rare sources of analysis that dive into the Pacific geopolitics without the spin usually accompanying the topic.
Most of the news from the region are always about Chinese artificial islands or crossings of maritime boundaries and it's been excruciatingly hard to find the factors and the lay-of-the-land so to speak about what's behind said decision-making.
Those factors implicate a lot of the usual suspects, but it's always another needle in a haystack to sift through.
So once again - thank you so much for sticking with the movers and motivators shaping the regional spheres of influence.
Please keep it up :)
USA will never sit back while someone attacks Australia, i will volunteer first day
I don’t think it’s purely strategic or economic national interest. Maybe 10 years ago, I would have been reluctant to say it is shaping up as a Cold War of civilizations; but with Ukraine - it feels like these teams are solidifying between East and West.
yeah, this vid definitely made it sound like Australia was just trying to stop china spreading, for the sake spite. Like stopping the the Huawei contract in Solomon's, never saying that China 100% Huawei equipment as a conduit for espionage. There are reasons for these actions
The funny thing is china does have any real Ally’s. Most of Asia hates them. Russia thinks they are the real power and think them better then china. People like to joke about china owning africa but the reality is these African nations will nationalize the infrastructure china built as soon as china trying to use them against their wishes.
Literally North Korea is Chinese’s closest ally. Let that sink in.
Meanwhile the US has direct allience with most of Europe, most of east asia and the pacific, and less talked about has a direct military alliance with basically all of South America.
This has been my thought as well. Anyone who has taken more than a cursory look at the Pacific theater of WW2 understands there is value that extends beyond the economic. Shirvan has indeed covered this to some extent outlining the various island chains and China's plans to secure these as a means of expanding its control over the Pacific. Naturally, the folks who won that control with blood 80 years ago aren't interested in giving up that influence and the buffer it provides for the security of their own countries. We're seeing jockeying in the Pacific right now that reminds me a lot of the jockeying for influence in Eastern Europe during the Cold War.
@@kma3647 Absolutely correct to mention WW2. My grandfather was in the army in Darwin when it was badly bombed by Japan. The CCP "diplomats" and many of the recent pro CCP Chinese mainlanders that live in Australia are very nationalistic, and Aussies notice! The CCP idiots starting a trade war, and nuclear saber-rattling woke up the Aussies that were dreaming dreams of being rich in China. We remember when Japan invaded PNG and attempted to cut us off from the USA. We had to fight them off, at great cost of lives. We won't be suckers the next time around. The result in Solomon's is disappointing, but Solomon's is still a democracy, and we will demonstrate to the Solomon's that they will be happier with a government friendly to us. We won't treat them as second class citizens in their own country, like the racist Han Chinese undoubtedly will.
@@kma3647 if you include the space race, the East already called dibs on L4 and L5.
I was literally assigned an essay on this for monday. Thank you very much for the informative entertainment.
I'm a big fan of the channel, hope you the best.
Not only is your information always thought-provoking and impartial, but your graphics have improved substantially. In addition, your comment section is usually full of thoughtful comments which motivate me to dig deeper. Thanks again for your nuanced analysis.
From a Pacific perpsective, you covered the topic pretty well, but in relation to Pacific geopolitics, the abscence of New Zealand in this video is quite significant.
From a global perspective, it's easy to percieve NZ as a non-power, but this is one region where it has significant and outsized influence, often outstripping Australia (particularly in Polynesia) as it isn't as aligned with the US. New Zealand generally has much more friendly and constructive relations with PI countries, whereas Australia relishes its middle-power status and is considerably more forceful in the region, to the dislike of PI countries. This is part of the reason why the Solomons deal happened, Australia (most prominently under the Morrison govt) hasn't been particularly well-liked in the region mostly due to climate change-related issues and general ignorance of the region, which is why the Albanese government has made such an effort to make amends. But, both NZ and Aus made mistakes in the aftermath of the Fiji coup in the region generally that have allowed China to usurp so much influence in the vaccum left behind.
New Zealand and Australia have some of the worst records of neo-colonialism that they poorly attempt to brush under the carpet, from pure negligence in Samoa that led to the deaths of thousands during the Spanish Flu on the part of New Zealand, the cancellation of thousands of Samoans post-1949 NZ citizenship in the 1980s under Muldoon's dawn raid policy in NZ, or the destruction of Nauru for phosphate mining by Australia. You can't really blame the Pacific for leaning towards China when it has been treated like a dusty welcome mat by New Zealand and Australia since their independence.
The telecom point is particularly relevant. NZ and Australia spy on pretty much all Pacific comms for the US, it's been a contentious issue in New Zealand where many NZ citizens live in PI countries, where the NZ government is conducting mass intellgence-gathering on their own citizens. NZ and AU send all the unprocessed data to the US, and only get back what's relevant to them. The scale of intelligence-gathering in PI countries by NZ and AU is astronomical, some people joke you can hear the line click to record international calls as it passes through the NZ exchange.
Honiara's Chinatown is also quite relevant. When the riots happened, it is claimed that Australian personnel were told not to protect Chinese-owned infrastructure and businesses, shooting themselves in the foot.
Nz doesn’t care about this
@@youssouferfromaids825 NZ cares significantly about it. They've pretty much reinvented their entire foreign policy towards the Pacific under Ardern's term and siginificantly changed their language and rhetoric surrounding the region. The Pacific is the foundation of NZ's entire foreign policy.
NZ does exhibit a high cross cultural sensibility, Australian doesn’t, despite the billions of dollars Australia provides in aid to the Pacific countries. Nonetheless, NZ has not held its weight on diplomatic and defence matters to constrain China. Herein, not supporting Australian and the United States, while expecting the aforementioned to protect NZ.
" it is claimed " Really ? and you can back this up with evidence ? Careful, your bias is showing !
Auckland is the largest Polynesian city in the world and as such has pretty strong ties with the pacific culturally and through friends and family. I'd agree with you about historic wrongdoings between NZ and the pacific, but compared with Ozzy, there has been few in the last 3 decades, apart from said Intel gathering. Militarily Australia is tending down the armament route, whereas NZ is focused on disaster relief for the pacific primarily
As an Australian I thank you for these invaluable insights
The United States and Australia would be generally aligned based upon values and shared heritage alone. Australia gets the protection to not be a vassal state of China and the United States gets a staging area for our interests. Each side gets what they want. Being cynical and dismissing values and ideals doesn’t paint a complete picture of the world.
No, but it has to be understood that there's a power differential. Shirvan notes it. Many times, the two partners may not want to make note of it. Some things are better left unsaid in a relationship like this. Do you tell your junior partner that you're the big guy and your calls matter more than his? Never, unless you have to, because it ruins the relationship. The US and UK have a similar relationship. For pride's sake, neither side would ever call the UK the "junior partner", and yet after WW2, it became so. Neither side treats each other that way (a good thing). The rare times when one side tries to impose itself, sometimes creates tension that neither really want. I suspect this is the case with many alliances. The new Russia-China alliance puts Russia as the "little brother." China is unlikely ever to say that directly, nor flex that kind of muscle if it's not absolutely necessary.
"gets ... to not be a vassal state of China"
I guess you're saying they prefer to be a vassal state of the USA than of China, because they're okay with American values and want close connections with the USA for cultural reasons, rather than being disconnected from them.
Australia is basically a vassal for united states. I don't understand why Australia is trying very hard to bully China with stupid policies
@@kma3647 The USA made it perfectly clear to the UK and French when they moved on Suez Canal, and to put it nicely basically told off.
Australia's shared heritage with America is going away. America's children are majority minority and there is constant propaganda telling us to hate our own heritage basically constantly fed to our children. I really think that Europeans and Australians don't realize how far America is drifting from them, and how quickly, due to generations of massive, unabated illegal immigration. Once the boomers die off, America will no longer have a non-hispanic white majority.
Thank you for another great video !
As an Indonesian, this always bothers me, as unlikely as it is, I hope both of them can settle things diplomatically and keep Indonesia out of this
6:55 that's yet another interesting layer to your indepth analysis! =)
As a Kiwi Sāmoan, I want China AND America OUT of the pacific! We need a better international cooperative relationship than the Pacific Island Forum! We need to secure our own geopolitical sovereignty!
With countries like China you can't have an agreement for non involvement. They will always break it.
@@saimaberrii Australia and NZ has historically broken it multiple times.
America and China are both IN the pacific 🙄 they’re not going anywhere
It's a nice idea, but if it's not US/China it will just be another power.. thats how the world works
Pick your poison
6:42 It's interesting how on this graph, Fortescue is the only mining company not majority American-owned. Because its owner, Andrew Forrest, is the only Australian mining magnate who has criticised the government's hawkish China policy 🤔
That's a very good observation. It's almost as if Australia-China tensions are spurred on by Washington, D.C. and Wall Street.
As someone who works for FMG it surprises me that anyone would be surprised to learn that the one individual with the most to lose from Sino-Australian tension would also be the most outspoken against those tensions.
But, ultimately, China has placed sanctions on Australia, not the other way around. So blaming Australia for China's aggression is akin to blaming Ukraine for Russian aggression.
That doesn't stop people trying though, does it?
@@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns
Why the hell would Wall St. want to spur tensions between Australia and China when they have most to lose from it?
That makes no sense at all!
@@tigerpjm how much do you think Australia is going to pay for these nuclear submarines and who they are going to pay it to?
"War is a racket."
- General Smedley Butler
Do you really think that the US Congress has the Ukrainian people in their hearts when they gifted $60 Billion (or whatever it's up to) in arms? That's just a cheque for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and General Electric paid by US taxpayers. And guess which companies hire former US Congressmen? The Ukrainians didn't pay crack head Hunter Biden $50,000 per month for his energy expertise.
@@tigerpjm what is this FMG?
Great video and great predictions! It makes the person think about what may happen eventually! It's alarming, somewhat!
Australia competes with China ? Shivan, what have you been smoking ? Must be pity good :DDD
Love the content, I would love to see some written form of these videos too! Plus, would you be able to have your sources available in your bio?
Excellent question.
Print versions w/ sources are available on his Patreon.
Source: I'm a member.
When an Australian Prime Minister considered closing Pine Gap in the 70s, the US was instrumental in getting rid of him. The late queen also had a hand in his removal.
Oh dear, we have a deluded nutter spreading deranged conspiracy theories. But neither Holt, nor Whitlam were removed by the Yanks, no matter how much that might suit a conspiracy theorists agenda.
Which is why I’m extremely distrustful of the US government. Australia shouldn’t rely or depend on anyone, not China nor the US. Australia should at the very least *Try* to become self sufficient as much as possible.
@@Quinn_Falkenheim I'm glad you emphasise "try". You at least know what we really are: Pine Gap Island... a sort of a really large Guam. Not even the 51st state.
@@Quinn_Falkenheim Are you ready for Australia to secure tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals then, because that is what it would take to be neutral in our neighbourhood.
@@Banana_Split_Cream_Buns a large Guam with the 12th largest economy and 6th most traded currency in the world, interesting.
Very interesting, thank you!
Alyways nice to have a CaspianReport and a GTBT video at the same day
PNG was shrewd in their dealing with Huawei. By playing the China card, it manage to pry open Canberra's purse strings when it's Pacific aid program where at it's lowest in decades.
I think you understimate how important Australia is to the US. The US's main intelligence gathering operation in Asia Pacific are housed in Australia and Australian military alliance with the US is pretty much all but guaranteed.
Does anyone else think the name Harold Holt being applied to Sinking submarines is a bit of a dark joke?
Whatever danger might come from a wounded pootler , it's nothing compared to the danger of a victorious, unbridled pootler
. No compromise.
Damn right.
Where do you usually go to for your info when researching? This geopolitical economic approach is very refreshing and inciteful. Do you have any go-to publications for this kind of angle on global issues?
Commenting to support your work ! Continue !
Australia is not China, but Australia really needs to treat the various Pacific Islands, and especially the people, with more respect. They do not want to be perceived as arrogant overlords of vassal states, like is starting to be China. Australia is rich enough to give these small islands a bone or two. Also, the public perception of Australia is a hedge against island nation leaders whose secret bank accounts get a dramaticly large deposit.
When you say "give them a bone or two", you already gave out typical Aussie arrogant overlord's vibe, lol
@@gonzalos4379 No, it's just a common saying in English. Australians, as people, generally have a high opinion of their pacific neighbours and want good relations. The reaction to the plight of Tuvalu and the inaction of the Morrison government, was quite strong. I've found most Australians I talk to are pretty embarrassed by the diplomatic antics of their previous government.
Just read the comment section and the joke Aussies made about cannot see eyes to eyes because they are a foot taller than Asians. Not exactly stuff endearing Australia to SEA and PI countries
@@Peizxcv 'Aussies' or a joke you saw one person make? I didn't see it, but assholes exist everywhere. Pacific islanders can be tall af alot of the time though, one of the reasons I quit rugby, bc I couldn't compete with some of the huge people we were playing.
@@jamoblair7245 It's a common saying that used in this context has the worst connotations, and I do think sooner or later Australia, along with the U.S., will have to come to terms with the idea of sharing power with the rest of the world.
Can we point out the comedic significance of a submarine contacting base named after Harold Holt?
There's also a swimming pool near me named after him lol.
Excellent analysis
great stuff as always !
brilliant, as always thank you for your work!
Great Work! I’d love to see something about Brazil 🇧🇷
That opening music was cold. Where can I find it?
Everyone keeps poking the US, Japan poked us once..
Maybe because the US won't stop poking everyone else
China is not Japan.
One of a kind once again. Thanks for the approach and view regarding Timor-Leste.
Been watching you for years don’t ever stop brother
As always. Excellent content! Keep it up.
this Intro was awesome!
Thank Heavens we have an adult in the White House who cares about trans-Pacific interests, and for the good guys in general, instead of dismissing others seemed undesirable as "poor, brown, 3rd world shit-holes"'. We stand strong with our Pacific friends!
Australia is not competing for supremacy of the Pacific, it is just protecting its right for passage and for the preservation of World order
Great work as always
Australian here to say:
The real geopolitical situation is whether or not we can get NZ to colonise the planet.
They will be the next British or Japanese empire. Pax New Zelander!
Hey leave us out of this (NZ)
i would like our sheep overlords to replace our government
@@julm7744 okay calm down Putin
@@EatMyShortsAU ukrin🥺
Excellent tracking of not often mentioned actions of the Australian military done on altruistic pretext and followed by economic predation. Shows the post-WW2 European modus operati: endless power grabs masked under some flimsy pseudohumanitarian claptrap.
Also. The very recent extension actions of the US in this underexamined theater were appreciated. This was one of the better and more original Caspian Reports.
This is incorrect. Australia would have been far better off to support indonesias invasion from an economic perspective as that border was more favourable to Australia
I feel you've really undersold the role that Sogavare as an individual is playing in the deterioration of the Solomons-Australia bilateral relationship. Most of the Pacific states have at least the beginnings of solid democratic traditions, in large part because of Australian and New Zealand pushing this as part of their aid packages.
But Sogavare is doing his best to unwind this. He's one of the many post-democratic figures around the world, like Victor Orban and his ilk. This is facilitated in part by legitimate political support based on inter-island (effectively tribal) political blocs, but also by pretty blatant and open corruption.
It's no secret that the Chinese influence in the Solomons had been fairly directly purchased. There's very little Australia can do, especially since elections have now been delayed (see above in the post-democratic point). I personally hope that if they're in any way competent ASIS are busily preparing to ensure Australia's interests are... Informally represented in that election, but that's way beyond my pay grade.
So you want neo colonialism lolo Also those "aid" packages also open up these nations for Australian and New Zealand economic take over. You think you guys don't buy elections with aid promises and your "informal" push for interest in countries you helped to colonize. It's crazy how you can imply neo colonialism yet still talk about democracy lol they want elections so they can push their man into the ring as to keep the Solomons in their pocket. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Islanders living in poverty making your "aid" meaningless. These countries need development not "aid". This is why China is winning in the Global South.
PS Australia trades and give aid to Cameroon, who has been ruled by the longest sitting non royal head of state......you guys don't care about democracy lol
Why not liberate them? Lol that would be fairly easy, no? It is a matter of Australian security sometimes you gotta get dirty
Ever heard of something called blowback? It's very common in history for the CIA or MI6 to overthrow an imperfect Government, in favour of someone else and that country ends up with either the Ayatollah of Iran or Augusto Pinochet.
But Sogavare is no less corrupt than any other leader. Ever heard of Frank Bainimarama? He didn't exactly come to power in free and fair elections.
Continued political espionage undermines what democracy and laws that sovereign countries have. These are high stakes games that often have consequences. And consequences could be that we push the Solomons into the arms of China, just like the way Timor-Leste President Ramos Horta is openly courting China... after we spied on his Government during Timor Sea negotiations.
@@bruderschweigen6889 I've not had much dealings with International Politics, personally. But I have dealt with family and friends with drug addictions and domestic violence. you can go in swinging and throw your weight around, and they might cower for a while, but ultimately go back, often for the worst. but if they know 'Hey mate, Im here for you, just say the word' and just kinda make sure they know you dont approve but your still their friend regardless, they will actually ask for help without shame, and get the help they need. might hurt, but at least its their call, so it actually sticks. thats my experience anyway. mind you, we did kinda fuck over East Timor, that wasnt cool...
@@bruderschweigen6889 would wreck relations with the other Pacific Island nations, provoke a crisis that would result in all of them hosting a Chinese military base to not be the next in line.
Once again thank you!
another great piece shirvan!
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You didnt explain clearly why there is bad relations between Australia and China. China wanted their 5G texhnology to be installed in Australia. Australia said “no” and so started the downhill in relations
I thought Australia was one of the Islands being taken over with China with the excessive amount of financial influence
No, we are controlled by the USA and we absolutely hate China.
A worthy debate for another time and place.
Yes and no.
From memory the USA and UK make up the majority by a long way, China cannot compete to put it blunt.
I can't remember but it's either China at 8th or 3rd biggest either 2% of 10% by comparison UK is about 20% and USA about 30%.
@@brianlong2334 it’s less of the amount and more of what they’re taking over. Stuff like the water supply, especially in an arid country like Australia could completely kneecap the nation
@@ChronicAndIronic Australia estimates that it can support a population of 120million with surface water before having to get ground water, and or major desalination plant's for ocean water to freshwater.
Australia receives about 420mms of rainfall a year the USA receives 760mm by comparison.
Australia foreign water ownership is only about 11% of the total, and Canada owns the most about 2% followed by China, USA and UK all near each other with 1% to 1.5% depending on the year it can fluctuate around and they often sell off to each other ect.
India 🇮🇳 strongly standing with our brothers in Australia 👍
This explains a lot. Thanks. 👍
*The Three Golden Rule Of 🌏Geopolitics*
_Rule #1 : There are no permanent Friends,Just Temporary Interests_
_Rule #2 : Never Trust 🇨🇳 China_
_Rule #3 : Never Depend On 🇺🇲 USA_
_Rule#4 : Never Forget Rule 2 & 3_
Good point I think Russia is very aware rules 1 and 2 as they go deeper in to Ukraine.
Why tho? Hasn't america genocided more people all over the world and replaced Americans with european immigrants?
True...Uncle Sam is as Deceiving as CCP when it comes to Geopolitics..
Rule number 2 is not true.
Which country has China betrayed?
@@EatMyShortsAU make sure Ukraine doesn’t forget rule 3
Australia is but a launch pad for Uncle Sam
As China was for Russia, and Russia will be for China.
Lets not forget that the most of the Australian and Chinese people want to enjoy life and then there are some organisations and politicians that want to battle each other.
Dislike the government, love the people.
Seemingly pointless comment on a video about geopolitics
That's really very sweet and Disney. But basically it's about the competition for finite resources. Who gets the most resources gets to enjoy life. Who doesn't get the resources gets revolution.
@@dana8503 From a technocratic world view true
@@hornysanders6244 Why?
Excellent analysis! I learned a lot!
This is the best channel! Thank you
The pacific is so exotic to me
Yes
It's pure chaos and an absolute mind fuck geopolitically.
A great report
My favourite part of this video is when the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said to Xi Jingping "It's Albanese time" and then he went to Beijing and Albanesed all over the place
"Bro, he turned himself into a dagwood dog, it's the funniest shit I've ever seen"
How American reverse engineered Mig 25 and created F15 from it.
ua-cam.com/video/4AvY1-aHEac/v-deo.html
I say that we Australians Americans New Zealanders Canadians and English are all one people and no treaty is needed we would all die for one another no questions asked
LMAO how long before we see the Fujian Aircraft carrier sail thru the Solomon sea or Coral sea for a "Freedom of Navigation" exercise.
Never. It does not (and will never have) the capability of travelling more than a couple hundred kilometers from it's own shores. Nor would it want to... it would reveal how actually incapable the Chinese navy is, much like how Putin has accidentally revealed how incapable his previously vaunted army is... stretching too hard as a closed off, ignorant authoritarian power always ends in disaster.
Still wondering how Australia and China went from being ok with each other to antagonistic.
All in a short span of time...
As outlined early in the video Australia has thrown in its lot with the US. It acts as an extension of the US and gets security and economic benefits out of it. So to your question, it's really about why the US-China relationship has deteriorated.
@@RealPeoplePerson so it is like a puppet?
@@koharumi1 In one sense, yes, but I feel "puppet" implies more direct control by the master than exists here. The Australian elite more or less willingly subjugate Australia to the US, and they gain significant benefits from it. However, they know that if they were to attempt to regain their sovereignty the US can inflict a lot of damage and instability on Australia, and probably force the country to abandon the attempt. In this way Australia is trapped in the alliance and doing US bidding in their region.
@@koharumi1 less a puppet and more a vassal. Australia sees its security as tied in with the continuation of US hegemony in the Indo-Pacfic. The realisation that China posed an actual threat to this order came slow at first, then quite fast.
There might also be some level of learning from history - prior to WWII Australia was reliant on Britain for protection, and failed to take the rise of Japan seriously. As a result Australia found itself in a war it hadn't prepared for, fighting ships made from exported Australian iron.
More surprising is the speed of the shift in Australian public opinion towards China - the Lowy Institute annual polling around this is quite interesting. Possibly undercurrents of racism in Australian society and the fact that Covid originated in China helped.
@@leotavira7854 I don't think it has to do with racism as such, but rather, CCP China's complete attack on Australian export economy -- banning imports of Australian coal, ore, wines, etc.. All because Australian government asked for an investigation as to Covid's origin in Wuhan. Australians didn't take to kindly to this economic extortion.
*"In every chaos, there is an opportunity."*
*USA🇺🇸 got this, during the two World Wars.*
It also helped to own the most geographically wealthy piece of land on the planet.
You’re pretty, come to America 😘
Never let a good crisis go to waste.
- Australia cuts aid to the Pacific
- China starts to fill the gap
- Australia to get nuclear subs
- Solomons signs deal with China
- Australia: surprised pikachu face
We have 9 years of Liberal Party (centre right) Government to thank for that here! They destroyed AusAID in 2014 and cut the aid budget further until the ‘pacific step up’ but it was too late by then.
That was thanks to the incompetence and arrogance of the previous conservative government. The very first thing that the new Labor government did after winning the election was to send the new Prime Minister and Foreign Minister on a tour to every single Pacific neighbour to shore up support. Even though this received backlash back home (you've only just become the guy in charge, why did you immediately go to Indonesia?) but I think they did the right thing, they can win their people back but once a neighbour has switched to China, they aren't switching back.
@@mrsnrub282 The only people who have criticised Albanese's overseas trips are LNP Sky News hacks. The idea that diplomacy requires more than shouting at people is a concept too advanced for their pea-brains.
@@mrsnrub282 oh yeah Albo going bike riding with Joko was excellent diplomacy! There is also symbolism to the bicycle, in that it represented both Joko’s and Albo’s humble beginnings. Indeed the conservative media attacked him for it but no one listens to them, the last election is evidence that most people see through it now. Indonesia should be Australia’s most important friend and partner.
That’s all because of the incompetence of the previous government we just had in now that’s labor’s back in we should and are seeing large positive changes
great video, painfully clear about some unfortunate political truths.
Incredibly high quality content. Object and brilliant. Thank you
About the "Australian Geopolitics" thing:
1. Aus is a descendent of the Bri'ish 'mpire so nah doi, and was at war in the indo pacific with the only other western power there being the U.S
2. Saying Aus 'joins' the winning side is just flat out wrong, they go to war with their allies who then collectively win, at no point has Aus jumped from one side to another
3. The Aus Parliament is a shit show, nothing that comes out of Canberra is calculated
No worries, most of these islands will be mostly underwater in a few generations.
It's a heavy toll to pay.
2.3 million refugees isn't all that much in the grand scheme of things
@@overdose8329 A single death is a tragedy. A million is a statistic.
And this number is at least 2.3 statistics.
@@normanclatcher they won’t die. They’ll be split up between Australia, New Zealand and the US
The real question is: Which countries will take in the people of the Pacific when their islands are underwater by the end of the century? (Hint - it's not China)
there are 2.3 million pacific islanders in total. Not that many even if Australia took them all in
@@overdose8329 What is interesting to me is that these couple million people who live in over a dozen countries administer thousands of islands, a vast percentage of the pacific EEZ, and over 7% of the UN vote. All with a population of about equal to annual legal and illegal immigration in the US.
@@sosoable While I'm disappointed in your ignorance in geography, I'm not surprised. Australia has many cities by the coast, some are better off than others; each one can move further inland if need be. Parts of Sydney are 200 meters in elevation. Canberra has an elevation of over 500 meters. Compare that to Palau and Tuvalu's maximum elevation of 5 meters or Kiribati's 2 meters to understand the folly of your logic.
@@sosoable Firstly, let me congratulate you that you like your own brain dead comment. Secondly, no.
@@sosoable Australia is one of the most geologically stable continents on the planet, being in the centre of a tectonic plate. Learn stuff before you make stupid comments.
Australia has ALWAYS been extremly loyal to the UK and now USA.