How bad will this get?
Вставка
- Опубліковано 10 вер 2024
- There's still a chance to save the "spirit" of the reserved list, but it ends once the M30 sale runs. I worry the product will have a smoother landing than many of us thought, which will send WoTC all the wrong signals, and send them running down the wrong road. Let's discuss.
#MagicTheGathering #LimitedEditionAlpha #30thanniversary
3:26 Don't buy M30
6:52 This product might not crash the market
9:32 New cards CAN be worth as much as old cards
13:45 What Hasbro will see if M30 lands smoothly
18:09 Who wants these cards?
23:02 Tavis is right, these cards might be "bling" not "proxies"
26:05 Success of M30 will solidify the death of the "Spirit of the RL"
30:39 Summary: the health of the MTG ecosystem is at risk
35:49 Call to action!
**
I'm Mike, the Alpha Hoarder, and I'm sharing/documenting my wild collection here on YT. Join me while I ramble about old cards and MTG finance, and look at cool stuff.
hello@alphahoarder.com
Mike the AlphaHoarder @ 375 Carlls Path #73, Deer Park NY 11729
It was pointed out that buying some singles on the secondary market, like I did, BEFORE the WoTC sale has gone live, stands in contradiction to my call to sit out on the product.
I think that critique is correct. I've been thinking in terms of giving money to Wizards vs giving money to individuals on the secondary market, but given that M30 hasn't launched yet, that was a sloppy separation on my part. I should have waited for AFTER the M30 sale before providing any price support to the single market for this product. 🤦♂
Appreciate the call out 👍I'm still seeking the modern frame for those two cards, but I will stop looking for them until after the launch.
My 2 cents: Buying on the secondary market is not sitting out the product no matter if it’s before or after. The initial buyer won’t buy the product if no one wants it. Buying on the secondary market enables the primary buyer.
@@mike5682 I see your point, especially if we think in terms of future releases of products like this one. I admit to not having thought through that part of the divide until it was brought up in the comments. My thinking had only been in terms of giving Wizards money vs not. You are right though. I won't seek out the other two cards I wanted, not at this point or in the near term anyway, until we see what direction things go. I think that's the right play... feeling silly for not working this out earlier. D'oh.
@@AlphaHoarder don't be hard on yourself. At the end of the day, you paid what was considered FMV at time of purchase. You engaged in a practice all too common by many players albeit a product players want to "boycott". However, you bought what you truly enjoyed and that's what matters. Buy the other two cards when you want to not what others say. I quote William Shatner. "In the end, nothing really matters." I am excited by the uncertainty this product has produced and look forward to product release to lay rest all debate. I do have material skin in the game. We all agreed it could go to zero or did we just state that rhetorically?
I agree.
I'd guess that WotC will look at the performance of the initial sale, and also look at the secondary market performance next fall.
If we get through the end of 2023 without a similarly high priced product release of some kind, we can guess that WotC deemed the project unsuccessful.
After that, buying singles on the secondary market and watching opening videos shouldn't make much difference.
Don't legitimize them by even suggesting this is akin to Masterpiece... those cards are legal. They are super rare and at their time available in 100$ boxes....
Tavis is the best, he deserved more credit. I really enjoy his content, especially the little documentary he made about the "Prototype Blastoise" with the MTG back...Such a great content.
100%
Exact. Tavis is the Bible of Magic.
Tavis Hype!
Yeah that moment where he pulls up the error 404 RL policy is epic.
Thanks everybody! 🥰
Most large holders are not selling anything, im a firm believer in always be buying and selling at all times (a little) but keep your gems. I just dont see the panic in the ABU market, the only people panicking are the people who HAVE to sell.. and are overlevered, some are currently rage selling hard lol. Its a textbook example of watch your leverage.. keep debt low at all times. Let the long game be the win for your collection not the short game.
Well said
Wow, that Orrery is quite elaborate and ornate, very nice. It's been interesting to hear your thoughts on the reserve list, I know that as a collector, you think the long-term success of the game is due to collectors being able to rely on the RL somewhat creating price stability. I've heard others, like TCC, argue the opposite so it's been interesting to hear the disparate view points on this matter. Keep up the great videos, man.
Appreciate you watching! Yeah, it’s one of those things where there’s so many entangled parts, it’s very hard to tell what happens when you yank any one thread. I do worry that a lot more will unraveled, but I could be wrong.
I always appreciate that you put a lot of thought into these issues and that your stance is always logical but evolving with input from others. Sorry you got labeled a conspirator; silly people always think we are conspirators just because we wear a tin foil hat sometimes.
I won't be touching this product at all and I have a lot of the same anxieties as many people do: my biggest concern being how Wizards interprets the success of the product and what it could green light in the future. My invisible protest has been starting an Alpha Commons collection and picking up a few Reserve List favorites like All Hallow's Eve that I've dreamed of for so long. I picked up a good Earthbind and a Mesa Pegasus yesterday and screamed "Take THIS Wizards" into to the un-listening void.
That is the very best kind of protest I’ve heard! Alpha commons are an awesome place to collect, only a couple are priced really crazy, and yet they’re so awesome 😍
….. but maybe I’m biased 😅
The opening with your orrery😂 love it.
Thanks for this discussion sir. Juggernauts😍And a beautiful Personal Incarnation! Wow! 🤩
I won’t be buying this product.
I hope/wish boycotting this product would matter, but knowing WotC, they already have 2+ years of this garbage in their roadmap and failure is not an option. Full steam ahead into oblivion.
However, what’s great is that no matter what they do, it doesn’t change the way I feel about the game of Magic. I’ll always love and cherish the game and the hobby as I pursue it (93/94, EDH), because it has nothing to do with this incarnation of WotC.
Agree that Tavis did an excellent Magic 30th print run discussion. This really gave me pause, because for the first time I could see how carefully engineered this product might be. 😮
Thanks for the comment - yeah, I do wonder how effective a boycott could be. I suspect the margins are so high that they really don’t have to sell very much to make money… So even if it sells abysmally below their predictions, would they even consider it a failure, if it’s all profit? I don’t know. But I DO think our odds of getting their attention are higher right now than they will be again for several years, so it’s worth a shot.
Tavis is careful, though, and balanced, and I completely agree… Once you pull some of the emotion out of this, it’s seems likely the product was very carefully engineered by wizards 😬
That's a good point, WotC does work years in advance.
I've seen the list of ideas brainstormed years ago for Secret Lairs. It's long, and we're still crossing things off that list.
WotC probably already has a list of ideas ready if 30th Anniversary Edition is successful, and they probably also have a plan for what to do if it's not successful.
Those ideas don't necessarily have to be old cards, or even at the same $999 price. The product is priced in line with the secondary market value. Upcoming versions could be any kind of rare randomized direct to consumer product. Maybe the product isn't even important in the long run, this could be a test of the website for direct distribution to capture more of the profit for WotC, and cut out the distributors in the middle.
So far, I haven't found anyone who has changed their mind about buying 30th Anniversary Edition due to the boycott. (Well, I suppose Rudy changed his mind.)
What I have found, is that the people who are vocal about not buying it, were already planning to not buy it due to the high price.
It's mostly non-buyers consoling each other about their decision, so that they feel better about not buying it. At that price, there's a LOT of non-buyers.
I don't see it having much effect on the actual product release. (if it did, the resulting smaller supply could push the value of singles higher anyway)
What I do see, is the potential social pressure that the large number of passionate non-buyers could apply to owners of the singles from this set. If the cards become something that owners are afraid to show people, that can really hurt the value of singles. It would take time to overcome that.
Profit margin is extremely high in 30th Anniversary Edition. A lot of the set cost is in prepress and setup though, which you could almost think of as a large fixed cost for each set.
The cardstock and ink cost scales with the size of the print run, but that other stuff doesn't. If the print run is small enough, you don't reach economy of scale.
On top of that, unsold inventory (and its warehousing cost) is wasted capital that cuts into the profit.
I haven't ran the math on it, but here's a few numbers if you want to think about it. You'll probably appreciate having these Alpha numbers either way. 🙂
The Alpha print run cost about $120,000 to print in 1993.
The Alpha print run was about 2,610,000 cards.
Costs have gone up since then, but there's also been some technological advances.
I enjoyed this video, Thanks for the shout out! 🙂
I think you got a good deal on that Serra Angel, but not so much on the Demonic Tutor. Either way, congrats on adding them to your global sets.
The Kaladesh masterpiece Inventions are gorgeous cards. I have incredibly rare test print versions in a couple of my upcoming videos.
Thanks Tavis! I can’t wait to see that test print. I’ll def be watching for the video to drop. Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving! 😁
I watched your entire pricing video yesterday, thanks again
First time viewer: I watched all 40 mins and subscribed 30 mins in. I share your sentiments, and hold a relative position to your interests financially and philosophically. Enjoyable watch.
I appreciate you checking out the channel! Good to hear I'm not way off in left field on this stuff, nice to be in good company 👍
Missed your art gallery for a week! And learned some new English today: 'Orrery', I don't even know what thats called in my native language haha. Fortunately for my surroundings, I am basically the only one to even be able to afford some M30 packs, and not gonna do it. Instead, more ABU/ 4 horsemen for me! My the Dark set is near complete, and looking to pick up some more Legends soon. Hope you're doing fine Mike, keep the Alpha's coming.
The Dark is a beautiful set… love the feeling of it. I like your track 🤜🤛
Very good Mike, gives the viewer/listener alot to consider. The many paths this could end up going depends on alot of things. Very cool cards as well, that's what it's all about. I'm a old collector who started in 4th ed and left the scene for alot of years, I still have my old collection, but haven't bought a card in years. I play online because I enjoy the game and community and its the only way i can because of work. Thanks for the videos, it's refreshing to hear your take and perspective.
It is all about the cards, easy to lose sight of that with all the noise. Appreciate the comment 👍
You weren't the only one who thought that they were responsible for Rudy's response to conspiracy theories on that point. Mtglion did a stream where he scrutinized the same part of Rudy's video from a lawyer and poker player's perspective, and, in a later stream, attributed Rudy's conspiracy comment to himself triggering it
That’s good to know, I was worried I came off like a nut case for asking, but maybe he was getting that from other people too 😅
I can also confirm that other people have said it, beyond what's mentioned here.
Modern frame mtg 30th power 9 maybe more desirable than the retro versions, since the retro ones compete with all other older ones.
Yeah, I actually sort of agree with this… I have the real retro frames and they look way better, I’m a little bit more interested in the slightly new look just because it’s novel.
I've also been wondering about the uniqueness of the modern frame P9.
It's sort of like Unlimited being the only white border P9. Some people are going to prefer that.
I don't think it will push the value of modern P9 higher than other versions, or anything like that, but it could have some kind of affect on the value.
Someone with a modern cube might prefer the modern P9. Luckily for them, it should be the cheapest version of P9.
Knowing the numbers are 1 retro to 3.36 modern, that gives some idea of how many people would need to prefer the modern version over the retro in order to have a noticeable value difference.
I need an orrery. That looked really cool
Yes, everyone needs an orrery IMHO! 😁
Holy crap, that is a clean Personal Incarnation. Unless I missed something, it looked cleaner than 99% of the versions I have seen. Not the wear, but the printing of the card looked cleaner than most.
Yeah! In terms of print dots, it’s *really* nice, which is very unusual for this card! If it were a true NM that would be an awesome multiplier… but alas, not the case.
Another great video from my favorite internet conspirator 😆. I've found I have to listen to the audio only the first time around or I won't pay attention to anything but the cards. Another beautiful collection... the hoard grows mightily indeed.
Honestly after this whole 30th fiasco I've completely turned off of new Magic for the foreseeable future. It's left such a sour taste in my mouth. Been delving into the new Kryptik TCG instead. IMO it is much more exciting and genuine than anything Wizards is doing these days.
Ha, yeah I’m either distracted by the cards, or distracted by the rant, rarely can I manage to track both lol.
I’m hearing a lot of that, and it’s no surprise the way things have been going… 😩
great video as always....i've started to put this comment on any Wizards advertisement on social media....trying to do my part...LOL
"i was told by one of your PR gurus that Magic customers shouldn't buy all of the products so i chose a number and that number is zero. i call it "the spirit of the reserved buying list".
That’s great 🤣😂
Oh and love the raging river and personal incarnation. Such stunning cards.
Raging River is one of my pet favorites. Love the art and concept
The generational comment got me. My kids have watched me with my hobby for their whole lives and it's rare that they play anymore, busier with life. We'll play during the holidays but none of the 5 are collectors. I've sold 2 collections throughout the years when I needed the cash for things they needed and after I retired (@45) started picking up things I'd gotten rid of. The kids have watched my ride and as much as they appreciate where it's gotten us, they just don't want any part of the collecting side. And I'm glad, because they can still enjoy it how it was meant to be. A game, no politics, no advertisements (ah crap, that one's out.....grrrr. Commercials in Magic "Watch Walking Dead on AMC!") So yeah, they don't want the collection.
That is nice they can enjoy it in it’s pure form- and who knows, that could be enough of a nostalgic basis to make collectors out of them some day. But if not… that’s my biggest worry about the longevity of the hobby.
You have an amazing collection. 👏
Thanks 🙏 I appreciate you watching
It almost seems like no matter what happens, Wizards will win. It's like they planned this!
When you say you're not buying it at all, you ofc make exception for your pet cards...I was planning on doing the same for Terror (I'm a Spencer collector), but doesn't this count as buying in? Even if everyone who isn't buying places demand on the secondary market for a couple singles each, what effect will that have?
…..You know, I think you might be right. I’ve been separating between purchasing from wizards and purchasing singles on the secondary market… But now you’ve got me thinking about it. I *should* have waited until after the sale, rather than create any price history. Right now the distinction between wizards and the secondary market isn’t a valid one.
Yeah, you are def right, I didn’t think that through properly. 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
Oh! Sorry to put your whole life in question! But yeah, I think it'll be best for my own purposes as well to focus on other things rather than to enable the buyers by increasing demand on the secondary market. I've got PLENTY of wants without having to fixate on this product, and ultimately I might just not get it in my own silly protest. I'll leave a space for future generations to muse over what may become a storied time in MTG history.
Thanks Mike!
There he is- was hoping for a video before turkey day. My prediction?
I don't think that collectors want this product outside of P9. I think many folks are like me where there is just something special about holding an original ABU card on cardboard they don't even print anymore. It gives the cards a unique feel, flavor, and history- much like for a philatelist holding a stamp that has had it's own journey. Between uniqueness, OG flavor, and print runs I don't see ABU dropping. If anything, MTG30P9 selling for high numbers might cause older stuff, especially power, to pop up to the next level. I think that duals, who are cherished by collectors and players alike, might take a more long term sideways/down trend depending how how prevalent they show up in MTG30. Reserved list beyond that... difficult to say. I think that playable RL might have more sideways movement as players will be fine with subsequent reprints, whereas more collector focused cards will stay strong. Either way, I agree with your sentiment that price dips and associated outrage would be helpful long term. All said, I think that just like in world markets, uncertainty is the biggest cause for price volatility. That makes be believe that this is the worst we will see right as we approach release, which is why I have been buying oldschool MTG more aggressively than I have since the pandemic first hit. Regardless of how the market reacts to MTG30, I am hopeful once the dust settles.
Happy Thanksgiving, homie!
P.S. I'm the Sedge Troll guy in case anyone is wondering ;-)
Nicely said, and you are very right, I shouldn’t forget about the role uncertainty is playing in all of this. I partially agree about your collector comment… I don’t see anybody preferring these over the old stuff, but I do think there’s going to be room for both. Collectors like collecting after all! As to which cards beyond power… open question, but you may be right. We shall see!
Good to know you are a sedge troll guy!
I'm the...
Benalish Hero
Samite Healer
Scryb Sprites
Fireball
Ironclaw Orcs
Mons's Goblin Raiders
Blue Elemental Blast
Twiddle
Crystal Rod
Cyclopean Tomb
Glasses of Urza
Library of Leng
... guy. 😂
It's nice to meet the Sedge Troll guy and the Serra Angel / Demonic Tutor guy. 🙂
(there's quite a few Serra Angel guys)
None of the cards on our three lists are P9, so it looks like collectors do enjoy cards outside of the P9.
I agree that there's something extra special about the old ones though. People often seek the point of origin.
@@TavisKingsChannel happy turkey day, Tavis! You’re the most low key, unsung hero of the MTG community
Thanks!
Happy Turkey Day to you as well! 😀
LOVE IT!
Very good point! Like your analysis! Makes a lot of sense
Thanks for watching 🤜🤛
And we are not there yet! More Magic30 surprises to follow. 🤘😔🤘
No doubt
Enjoyed the video.
Thanks for checking it out 👍
Well said
🤜🤛
yes; but if any of those alpha cards are ever reprinted in a foil variant; the foil variant will be worth even more.
Given your explanation about supply and demand being enough to keep prices up. What do you think about the serialized brothers war artifacts? I mean you probably can't get a lower supply than that.
Right, so the variable in that question is the demand. So far, we’re seeing decently strong sales, all above $250 and some over $1000. No idea if that will hold, but it seems to support exactly what you pointed out: it won’t require that much demand before we hit a supply bottleneck.
I like this orrery
There’s a bigger one this guy makes with all the planets! I went for the 6-planet version.
@@AlphaHoarder well that settles it.
I hope you have just a plain old orrery day.
I am a blue sky mountain guy. Always have been always will be. I have a super clean alpha quite a few beta and a glob of fbb. I will get one or so of these but not at beta Pricing. I will just get the beta
Nice, beautiful card!
To begin with my comment would be where's the jump? Ruined that at 23:36 :P
Glad I delivered 😂
A Rudy ruffling! Impressive!
😂😅
You completed that Masterpiece set yet? I have the Sol Ring (for my Sol Ring collection) and I think it is a beautiful card (and I’m not really a fan of foils tbh)
I did eventually! It took a while after discovering that they were two different print variants, one with foiling across the entire card, and another without any foiling on the artwork or the text body. I wanted them all fully foiled... but nobody seemed to know there was a difference, so I could rarely ask the sellers which type they had and was stuck guessing from the pictures.
Do you watch Reserve Investment on UA-cam? He's also into collection and according to him, the original magic (ABU) will only go up as they are the original.
I do! His channel is great and he’s super knowable. I happen to agree with him, the further you get from alpha and beta, and Arabian nights, the more risk you are adding, and the more important a growing collector-base is in order for prices to continue to appreciate.
I really hope wotc changes directions... I would love to see them expand the reserve list every year with a few new cards.
I bumped into Mark Rosewater a few times at GP Vegas 2018. We were staying at the same hotel.
During one of those brief visits, I asked him when we could get some more cards added to the reserve list. 😂
I’ve heard some people suggest this idea. I haven’t thought it through very deeply myself, but on the surface it sounds like an excellent option!
@Tavis haha he sort of went the other way with that suggestion, didn’t he 🤣. From his past comments, I’m under the impression he isn’t an RL fan. I wonder what amount of input he had on this. There’s a narrative that this was pushed from the top of Hasbro down, but I’ve seen nothing that really clarifies that
Yes, Mark isn't a fan of the reserve list. It's something that's in their way for card design, can't have functionally identical cards.
It's a little weird that people have been asking him to break the reserve list for decades, and now people are upset about the spirit of the reserve list being broken with 30th Anniversary Edition. He just can't win either way.
Getting rid of the reserve list was a common topic of conversation both inside and outside of WotC for awhile. To prevent employees from wasting time constantly talking about it, WotC put a group together to find the best angle for WotC to break the reserve list.
The best plan they could come up with, was to announce that the reserve list would be unwinding one set at a time in reverse order, from Urza's block all the way back to Alpha. With each new Standard product release, one set would come off the list.
That doesn't mean that anything would actually be reprinted. Some cards are too powerful and WotC doesn't want to reprint them, but they'd have the option again.
Once their best plan had been identified, they ran it by the WotC lawyers to assess the risk.
The result was NO, don't do that.
Having analyzed the situation and arrived at a conclusion, employees were asked to stop constantly bringing the topic up at meetings, it just wastes time.
At that point at least, the reserve list was here to stay.
@@TavisKingsChannel interesting insights. To me the reserve list seems to be something that prevents WOTC from poaching sales from the secondary market. If they reprint popular cards on the secondary market and stuff them into their products then sales go through the roof. Also the secondary market for those reprints take a massive 40-80% value hit. As a player who drops $1000 on a modern deck only to have WOTC reprint a bunch of the cards driving the resale value of my deck down to hundreds of dollars based on reprints… it pisses me off. It also makes me want to stop playing the game because I’m just burning cash on singles I’ll never get back due to reprints.
WotC does watch secondary market value for deciding what cards to reprint.
They also watch deck speed when determining whether to ban cards.
If wotc went under, the value would drop briefly. 5-10 years later it would shoot to the moon.
That would depend on the community continuing to bring players to the game without WoTC. Otherwise, attrition would inevitably shrink the hobby and demand.
Where did you buy that playmat? Does it have a name?
Oh man, I’m sorry I really don’t remember. It was almost definitely Etsy, but it was a very long time ago….
As a Hasbro shareholder and part owner of the company, I say reprint Alpha, Beta, AK, AQ, Legends, and The Dark with regular magic backs. Hasbro has a license to print money and I expect them to use it and pay dividends to shareholders like myself.
It seems to me, also as a Hasbro shareholder, their responsibility isn’t to print a bunch of money today if it would undercut their ability to perform in the near term. Rather, they should be building a strategy that let’s them generate profit today, tomorrow, and even more in the future. I truly believe reprinting in the manner you suggest would be a very short term view, and in 5 years there would be no profit to speak of as the hobby and game will have collapsed beyond repair.
Interesting thoughts, I would’ve appreciated further exploration of what steps you think are involved in MTG/reserved lists demise.
I think we’ve now passed two of the steps that could fork to the downfall of MTG after this set - #1 constant reprinting of non RL cards / secret lairs and #2 reprinting of RL cards.
Of course many questions remain for example:
how will collectors react? How will the OS scene react, esp in EU where they already allow CE/ICE and will they be treated the same ? What are WotCs next steps eg are they going to reprint the 4 horsemen sets?
I agree that many question remain, and I think you’ve planted two important flags in the road. These are patterns that will increase player and collectors attrition, and a shrinking hobby is a dying hobby. We’ll see what comes next, how sentiment shifts, and all that good stuff. There’s plenty of forward paths that work for everyone. Hopefully we’ll find our way to one of those…!
What is safer from reprints. Reserved list or non pc controversy cards?
Exact reprint? Probably the controversy cards, since many of those are also reserved list (so it’s at least as unlikely as that already) and as far as I recall, all of them had art from the original royalty model and weren’t likely to be reprinted with that artwork again anyway. However, I think investing into them is dubious. There is limited organic demand, which makes it highly speculative. I’ve picked up a couple recently, but I certainly wouldn’t bet the farm and assume the sensitivity banning will translate into upside potential.
@@AlphaHoarder do you think there is a premium on the sensitivity cards at the
moment?
Yes. I think if you already has some, you can sell for a solid markup right now. 🤔
Rudy will be buying it…
I take him at his word. But I don’t know him personally, so I suppose it’s anyone’s guess what happens off camera.
Hasbro is a garabge company and wotc is dead....hope the MTG spirit will survive! But I hope Hasbro will just go down asap!
I'm a nesting Grounds guy. Lol. I have around 170 copies still from the original Ikoria printing only. I bought em in stacks of like 50+ at a time for 60¢ a piece. Spent like 100$ in total, the stack is currently worth around 400-500$ now I think. I think it's an underutilized and underrated land that should see a lot more play. It's useful for all kinds of jank that could enable wild plays in things like the commander format. It can store any kind of counter on any permanent you control so you could save a loyalty counter if your walker is about to be blown up, or if your deck utilizes effects like hardened scales or doubling season then it can be used to help speed up win conditions by increasing the number of counters on thing simply by moving them around. It should see more play.
Oh yeah, you are right! Very jank card. Does it work on poison counters? Or only from permanents?
@@AlphaHoarder Nope, it can't affect counters placed on players. Only on permanents. But the idea that you could shift loyalty counters to ult a walker early, like the timestretch teferi for instance, or just save it for the next walker you play after the first one and it gets blown up or attacked is pretty useful, even if it may not be that likely to happen. Or moving counters around with hardened scales it basically translates to pay 1, put a +1/+1 counter on this creature, in a weird roundabout sort of way. It could potentially also be useful for getting around effects that destroy based on power or toughness by adding or removing a counter from something, bringing it just above or below that required threshold. It's just incredibly useful in any deck that makes use of counters. But it's considered a mediocre utility land and kind of ignored because of how narrow it can be. But I wouldn't put it in a deck without some modicum of synergies in the first place. Lol.
Completely off topic but can you ask goblin where he got those frank frazzetta conan sleeves?!?! 😮
I’ll ask!
I didn't realize there even was a boycott of the cards. It seems to me like a bigger boycott in general because sales of cards have slowed significantly. What makes it even weirder is the fact that the prices of cards just keep lowering and people still are not buying.
Yeah, it’s a crazy time. Whenever there’s a lot of uncertainty in a market, buyers (and sellers) tend to go on ice… I’m not surprised things are drifting/sinking. This is such a significant change, that nobody really knows what the five-year roadmap looks like anymore, and that’s a scary thing! Thanks for the comment 👍
Writing this as I listen so I dont lose my thoughts.
So I don't think outrage is the primary driving factor behind peoples refusal to purchase. Certainly some rage is there, but look at the walking dead cards, now worth 7-800% more just over 2 years pater.
As a collector, Ive been very worried for the last year about this obvious push to extract as much short term money as quickly as possible from the game. (Something recently confirmed with the whole announcement from banks about mtg.) Thats making me cease purchasing the collectible stuff i could afford (reserve list).
As a player, I and many others, just cant afford to buy everything. Thats where this thing will fail long term. Players wont afford this (edh is the biggest driver of sales for players, and most edh are now just proxying everything anyways), and collectors are clearly sensing the ravenings of greed from mtg.
I know Ive mentioned something similar in the past, but hasbros complete lack of care for the infinite game is very concerning. Either they are going bankrupt, trying to sell mtg, or something else significant is going on.
No business in their right mind set out for long term success would do the things they are trying. I know many other people sense this, and I think thats the heart of the 30th issues, and why I very much agree with you. Just reiterating the lack of infinite gaming by hasbro being what we are actually seeing. Ie obvious disdain for lack of generational handoffs.
Agree with your refusal to watch, I have zero interest in watching any.
I really don't lile rudy that much. Hes just another hype man, whos only advantage is that he found a niche early enough and gets info first. I stopped watching him years ago. Not trying to start shit between you two, I just havent liked him.
I think you put your finger right on the issue. M30, the print runs, the product release schedule, the Amazon-dumps… these are all emblematic of a deeper issue: an apparent prioritizing of short-term revenue over longevity of the IP. It’s baffling in many ways. Thanks for the really thoughtful comment.
I'd like to see Magic lean more into supporting organized competitive play, to emphasize the importance of tournament legal authentic cards.
@@TavisKingsChannel I literally could not agree more! Ive lamented this. Pokemon is the perfect example of a tcg setting up for success. They created prize support of college scholarships. They made the competitive scene strong and geared towards younger ages. (Not advocating for targeting just noting methods.) And even as a second tcg in what is and always has been a very niche market they have had resounding success.
Hasbro not even paying their pro players a livable wage is laughable. Aspiringspike literally doesnt like to take time off from streaming to compete because he losings so much money. (A pro-streamer who plays modern.)
For extremely minimal initial investment hasbro could beef up prize support, beef up tournament scenes and make a huge difference on the cross generational value of mtg.
I have a suspicion that they have a now or never price on reprinting power. Theres prob somewhere in the range of 100m in power out there. At what point will the lawsuits become too expensive for them to reprint that? As youve described in previous videos about promissary estaple right now the lawsuits would only get so much. But if enough money was lost by someone with the will and the cash reserves then the suits would reach a breaking point on return on investment. However, if hasbro sold their control of mtg, the next owner wouldnt be required to continue it.
Correction, not required but they would have zero legal obligation to continue.
Great video, I always enjoy your perspective. I think it's remarkable how passionate so many collectors and players feel about this 30th product. For me, personally, I really don't care what this product does. I will always enjoy collecting early editions and '4 horseman' sets because that's the stuff I remember when I first started playing in '94. I do enjoy that some of these cards have increased in value lately....but in the end I really don't care if they do or not. I collect for nostalgia, not for investing or as a wealth holding position. My stance on MTG products has never changed; if I want it, I buy it....if I don't like it, I don't get it. I don't take anything personally....I just don't buy it in the later case. This 30th edition is something I don't want....so it's not for me.
I admire your approach to the hobby. I enjoy the finance side, but I’ll readily admit it sometimes interferes with just enjoying the hobby as it was meant to be.
the reserved list needs to end, everybody should own all the cards for whatever the cardboard costs, nothing more nothing less.
it shouldn't matter when you started or how much money you have, a new player should have the same black lotus as a player
who's been paying for 50 years and it should be free, if not free then at the very least only maybe a couple pennies, what's fair is fair.
no card should be worth more than a single penny now that I think about it, wotc needs to fire them printers up and give the power back to the players
not people who don't even play the game but ruin it by creating a false sense of scarcity which is downright evil to new players who have just as much
right to own all these cards as the investor who spent millions doing nothing but fueling their own smugness with their stupid money and thinking they
can buy cardboard to sell at infinite profits when there are people who lust wanna play the damn game for fun and not be crushed by people with more monies
than braincells.
I certainly understand where you are coming from, and I think game access is an important part of the hobby health, but I think your representation is a bit of a caricature of the situation and the barrier to players. Just as a personal anecdote, I've played for fun with a few friends for many years and none of us have ever yet built a deck with a card worth more than maybe $50 in it. No duals, don't really need them to enjoy this game. I've certainly never needed a black lotus. Plenty of non-reserved cards are in that price range (and almost three-quarters of the reserved cards are under that price).
I also think you are downplaying how much *players* like bling/chase/valuable cards. Look at Kaladesh Masterpiece. Players have made it clear they want these options within the game, as well as something to work towards, like leveling up. It might be fun to play a game with all the cheat-codes enabled and all the levels unlocked, but only for a short time. After that, if there's no sense of progress and nothing to work towards, it gets realllllly boring. This is why game designers don't do it that way. Magic is the same, thanks in part to the reserved cards. There is an ability to level up and be rewarded for sticking with the game, building a collection (that has value) and trading into more powerful cards if you want.
All that said, I do think there are some predatory behaviors from investors/flippers/speculators that aren't healthy to the hobby, and I think there are many non-reserved cards that WoTC intentionally doesn't reprint until they have secondary market equity. We could argue and probably agree on a lot of ways that might be handled better to improve game access, but chopping off the reserved list or making all cards worth nothing would collapse the larger ecosystem that has (and continues) to let the game exist long-term. I really believe if every card could be ordered at any time for $0.50 from wizards.com, the game would be gone in 5 years. I'll make a video on this, I'd be interested in your thoughts on it when I do, if you happen to wander back this way.
@@AlphaHoarder nothing lasts forever, and you know what they say, its better to burn out than to fade away.
to answer your second sentence though in all seriousness, besides cards on the reserved list only being reprinted for investors and the like while everything else is being reprinted at a steady pace into oblivion there is no collectable aspect for anyone outside of said reserve list.
and lets be honest investors are investing they aren't collecting them, they expect a healthy return on investment
however just speaking for myself its not a ton of fun spending tons of money on non reserved cards to watch them all go to zero, it doesn't seem to matter what it is, if not reserve list its going to zero, that is not healthy neither.
so to remedy the situation wotc should spread the love so we can all watch our dollars turn into dust.
I understand there was always a chance my non reserved list cards could lose value but wotc changed the rules recently where only sellers and investors benefit now and that won't last forever.
how long does wotc or sellers expect to sell singles to players just for them to watch the 50 dollar card they just bought go to zero within a year, it may be working out right now but one day people are going to realize if they wait the card they want will go to zero and once enough players do realize, its game over and it will happen.
Boycott anyone you see sell the product. I am making note of those sellers on TCG that I will no longer do business with. I do not like to crap on another business, but they are part of the problem. Refuse, at every level this tactic, and let them wallow in it's failure. Just. Don't.
I like how you have a fridge next to your orrery, incase it gets out of hand and you need a beer ;)
Somehow, it often does, and I often do. Hmm, maybe the beer is what settles me rather than the orrery… 🤔
As always appreciate a good analysis. As you have pinned a point that I was going to address then no need to elaborate. Allow me to be a contrarian/devil's advocate as I have done on other channels. To show I am not trolling, my disclaimer is I haven't bought sealed since Kaldhiem. I buy boosters packs from subsequent sets to support my LGS and buy singles at FMV from TCG that many content creators promote. So truthfully, I have been boycotting 2 years before the masses finally got on board.
M30 inadvertently became the banner that united the players different grievances. To large print run of recent sets? M30 will have small print run. Glut of product? With some exceptions, players been buying everything last 4 years and content providers overall have been positive about said products. To expensive? Players bought the equally limited $699 rudy festival celebration box which had Fallen Empires packs with no overt backlash! The anger to M30 is misplaced. There is greed on both sides, but players wanted a cheap price to acquire Power 9/Dual. No one is crying about maybe not getting a M30 Grey Ogre. Anyone can buy cheap reproduction of the Mona Lisa, even Topps has reprinted a commemorative reprint of the famous 1952 Mickey Mantle you can get for under 20 bucks.
Why should Hasbro follow this route? They are in the unenviable position of trying to appease the many grievances that not all players share. I think the RL was bit of an overreaction by WOTC but it has been very fruitful to the collectors/investors/speculators/players, and I think to Hasbro as well. It took some time for Hasbro to figure it out.
Without the RL there is no M30 $999 product.
Could they apply M30 to other sets, yes but to rapidly diminishing returns. Anyone want a M30 version of Fallen Empires? Outside of Power 9, there are only three other cards over 3k from the remaining sets. Gaea's cradle has a World Champion ship reprint for $200 bucks. But at the end of the day, it was always about the Power 9. No other cards since then have come close to their iconic status/players feelings and they were from the first core set.
The spirit of the RL is intact. I think M30 is a fair product. Pre-sales indicate product will be opened and not just kept sealed. I have some concern for Revised duals, but ABU will be fine. The whales of each player segment will open. Players like me will keep sealed. I will not buy, as I already know the feeling of opening a Lace. I will watch the content just like I watched Rudy celebration openings. The market roll out could have been better, next time use humor like Rudy to disarm the consumer. Want a real greedy dark alternative version? WOTC could have just printed a commemorative Power 9 set and sell for over 10k. Power 9 has achieved iconic status which the MTG community bestowed. Not Hasbro fault they want to keep it intact.
Great comment, thanks for taking the time to write that out! I agree with a lot of your points. I think M30 is the lightning rod that focused a lot of building frustration, but as you said, not the single only/complete issue. I also agree about further CE sets having decreasing returns. I’d add dual lands to your list… I think the entire RL conversation ultimately boils down to power 9, duals, and maybe 5 other cards.
Good points, thanks again 🙏
@@AlphaHoarder Thank you for taking the time to read and sharing your platform. Not my intention to be the MTG Zen guy but to explore all avenues of change to make the game enjoyable and keeping the value of cards players have bought into. Right now, it's quicker for players to change than Hasbro at this point. Won't be easy as it has taken some time for me to unburden myself with the frustrations players currently have. MTG Finance created a burden for players to view MTG as an "investment". Most players just don't have the time, clout, space, deep pockets to deem MTG a worthy investment. But that doesn't mean their cards will be worthless if players change their view to MTG as just a game.
I let go of chasing sealed and recently let go of buying very pricey singles and accept they will be unattainable because I don't have an ideal exit strategy/comfort level to sell those cards to get FMV. I reserve the right to change my mind, but I'm not chasing vintage either. I chose to build a vintage collection couple of years ago that closely resembled what I recall seeing in some binders of my playgroup back in the day and can say I am essentially finished. I placed a preference on variety building bottom/up over just looking at 6-8 very expensive cards.
It can't replace but helps me relive the real memory/emotion I first saw A-B/4 Horsemen black bordered cards and UL cards of richer hues when I started in Revised. I have seen and played against ABU power 9. To see where MTG has become has made those memories the next best thing to not owning certain vintage cards.
The only thing I would have done differently is not buy modern sealed for investment. Maybe keep a box here and there. Instead to put that money in vintage and modern cards I would enjoy playing. IMHO it really isn't that enjoyable to look at boxes.
I'm a sick person, and I just noticed it: You mentioned, "Someone else did a video, and described these cards as possibly being in the Bling category, so what if we think about them that way?" My brain immediately was like, hold up, do I want any of these? Because that is the most obnoxious flex ever, and *very* tempting.
Still not getting any, but Jesus Christ I almost tricked myself.
🤣😂 Well the good news is: you aren’t alone. I have the same sickness too, and unfortunately, we’re not alone. This is why I suspect there will be demand for many of these cards, even if I wish there weren’t.
I enjoy watching these OG cards, what did you say about M30? lol...
🤣 The sign of true passion, right here
I want a one of those planet things.
I love this thing lol
I believe the race to the bottom has started, but this isn’t Black Tuesday, it’s Black Thursday. Soon, we will be greatly depressed and there will be no mandatory obsolescence that will bring us out of this slum.
OR everything reprices and the market becomes stable, focus just shifts away from reserved list and onto serialized/chase rares & sealed product
if they make another product like 30th Collectors for another 94-99 set, then everyone will flee and we will see the game die
I suppose only time will tell. Appreciate the comment
May be mtg lion he has been going after rudy Chan lately and mentioned things like this.
Sounds like other people maybe noticed as well, which is good. I try to wear the minimum amount of tin foil lol
I'm worried that so many people think that Magic will live forever and can never die just because it's been around for 30 years. Those same people just parrot Rudy and "stay the course" without acknowledging that they can't take the same risks that he can.
The game can't continue on the way it is for obvious reasons, and the end of it won't happen all at once. It will happen over a stretch of years. When collectors no longer feel like collecting, when investors no longer feel like investing and players no longer feel like playing. Right now, it feels like Hasbro said screw you to collectors, and investors are feeling the initial effects of overprinting modern-day sets. Likewise, players are being catered to with plentiful game pieces, but WOTC is (effectively) killing off their places to play in favor of MTGA.
The game 100% can die out, and I think this is what the start of that might look like. Just because a minority of people have said it before doesn't mean the game will always be healthy. I remember talking to ABU players when I was just starting 25 years ago. They were pissed that you couldn't use P9 anymore, and WOTC printed Chronicles to kill value. I remember talking to a few card shop owners 20ish years ago. They said they quit playing because WOTC stopped printing Lightning Bolt and Dark Ritual. At the time, I felt like those were crazy overreactions. While I still think they were overreacting, I understand why they were, and I see how easy it is for a company to alienate its customers. If WOTC doesn't acknowledge what they're doing, it isn't in favor of 2/3 of their consumers then the game will continue petering out while WOTC extracts the most revenue it can.
I agree with much of that… many collectible categories do not mature past pop culture, and die off with the generation that built them up. If Hasbro doesn’t continue to bring in new players and collectors from young age groups, then we’re definitely headed for a collapse. Which, as you point out, could be a slow - if inexorable- one.
watch out before they reprint that Orrery too
😂🤣
Yup, they just reprinted this Orrery thing in 2X2, recently picked up one for 5 bucks, a steal... 🤣
TBH I don't see anyone wanting this product other than people wanting to flip it. They'll be stuck on product they can't sell. If I was a person who had money to throw away I would just buy cards from unlimited, beta and alpha. Like Rudy sitting on hundreds of black lotuses in his basement. The masterpieces are still playable cards so this product really doesn't make sense.
Yeah, very fair. I suspect *some* demand would come from collectors. I would have loved to get this myself, for instance, except for what it represented. I’m sure there were some people like me but who didn’t care what it represented. Even so, I agree that flippers and speculators were the most likely target.
Sorry to break it to ya but wizards doesn’t care about wrecking a few
Privileged ABU collectors. They want a piece of that pie.
#truth
As a collector how willing are you to collect more in case ecosystems collapses? That might mean very low prices. It's almost 100% guaranteed that old cards will have more or less value in the future too but trend might be decreasing like regular collectibles behave. How interested a collector is to collect stuff that isn't a special anymore what comes to value? I'm not totally sure how collector ecosystem collapses? I understand it that way collectors will start to unload and speculators buy as long as bubble bursts (no more buyers). If I have understood collectibles correctly they always have all time high and honestly it's really possible that we have seen it during covid. And we are not even thinking about Wotc's actions which might bring this down faster.
You are right, and it’s the biggest concern I have about the hobby. If this particular collectible category does not hand off to the next generation, then we may have already seen the peak. If it does successfully handoff, I have reasons to think that future generations would still seek old cards, and in such a case prices could continue to rise long-term. It is a very big open question. As for my own collecting habits, I do actually have some accumulation goals and I’m getting fairly close. When I reach them, I will tone things down, and be sitting on an exposure I’m comfortable with.
Man. Did you see the non magic guy that got two boxes of 30a. If i paid 2k for that, i would flip the table soooooo hard. Nothing but bulk.
No I haven’t watching anything about them. What were his rares?
@@AlphaHoarder he got a lace and one dual, lich, and a lord of the pit. Jake and joel replayed it.
For $2k…. Ouch!!
@@AlphaHoarder he did get a bop in old boarder. Given the few openings i have watched on J&J replays, the power nine must be at elevated rarity. Most all of the packs dot get anywhere near the 250 price
Mike is back! Help!
I've rarely disagreed with you, but I don't think collectors are going to show particular interest in M30, no matter how limited a run it is! Only caveat I'd concede is over time, if the inventory of ABU drops dramatically, like, say, a house fire or similar, it's possible people may show more interest in M30. But the OG is loved because of it's OG status. There won't be any value to an M30 Black Knight for example. The power 9, meh, again, just limited run proxies, not OG! So I guess watch for Hasbro hit squads dude!
Kaladesh was something new, and you're right, it looks awesome.
That said, I know nothing, so, in 30 years I'll send a thoughtwave admitting I was wrong and everyone sitting on piles of M30 Lotuses will laugh on their way to the cryptobank, or whatever. Sweet orrery. Check out watch repair stuff, similar gorgeousness.
I don’t know anything either, so you’re in good company lol. You could definitely be right about that… The demand for these may come and go as quickly as every other product that wizards pushes through. I guess the only part that I would really stand behind is that we shouldn’t assume a new card can’t have higher demand than supply and thus support a high price… Other factors than age could make that so. Whether we have those factors here, we shall see! I hope not.
Sinkhole is beautiful.
Lol I just started playing last year I'm goin be so mad if the game actually dies :p
Haha you have some time, don’t worry lol
Initially i was 100% sure to buy the 30th. However the more i thought about it, actually before the ramble happened, the less i was sure i am gonna keep up with my plans.
There is opportunity in this product, BUT there is a very high risk for damaging MTG as a whole and thus i decided to skip it + BRO + Phyrexia reborn completely. Its not just 30th being a problem. It's Hasbros greed level that actually makes me concern. Its a dieing company with lots of toxic garbage products that tries to smoothen their numbers pushing MTG over its own boundaries... there is just way to fix that: Skip everything till they choke on their own greed.
I absolutely agree that the fundamental problem isn’t the 30th anniversary set; that’s more like the straw that broke the camel’s back. If they can’t right this ship, new players and new collectors will not enter the hobby, and that is bad news for those of us who care about it
I own beta and I refuse to buy this shit
🤜🤛
That post-video comment 😅😂🤣
I’ve been proactive in not buying and telling folks not to buy, as well as shitting on Hasbro, so I’ve more than done my part sir 🫡🫡🫡!
Haha yeah that’s a bit of a whoopsie! As I said in the video, I put a lot of this out there with the hope of getting feedback from the hive mind, and on that point the feedback was quite acute and useful.
You sure have, thanks for fighting the good fight!