hi trey!! can’t wait to see what’ll transpire in my area. i won’t lie and say the hatched risk didn’t make the hairs on my neck raise 😭 prayers for everyone!!
Thank you once again for a great video / something I really like is the fact when you describe something, even if it’s a possible dire situation, you do it very calmly /thank you / so glad in Tulsa We just had rain today // you might find interesting some parts of our area have had over 10 inches of rain since October 30 and I also heard there was snow in Boise City ?
Thank you! I believe it; I just took a look at the Mesonet rainfall maps, and numerous areas have gotten a ton of rain in the last 7 days, including up there in the Tulsa area. And yes, there was snow out in the OK Panhandle yesterday!
I truly hate daylight savings. I think “Okay, this is the model run for 00Z, so that’s 7PM Centr…. Oh wait 🙄”. Now I gotta reprogram my mental translation of Zulu time lol
Hi Trey! Thank you for blessing folks in the U.S. midwest, from TX up to Illinois, with your substantial forecasting & forecast assessment skills...AND your fantastic communication skills!
The big decider today is whether or not we’re going to see discrete cells or it’s going to be messy.. the latest synoptic run looks to support more of a messy mode which would be better case for not getting the tornadoes. Great analysis as always Trey I’ve learned a ton from you!
Even DFW has an all hazards risk from 12-5PM from NWS Ft. Worth. The highest threat is damaging winds, followed by the tornado threat, flash flooding, and lowest threat - large hail.
Did they change the outlook again today right after you uploaded? Current outlook is showing that the severe threat actually pushed back out east a little bit.
SPC just dropped a rather ominous MD (No. 2204) suggesting a heightened tornado threat across north TX including the DFW metro. *So far* storms seemed to have struggled a bit to become robust, but that one approaching the Grandview, TX area (as of 1350 CST/1950 UTC) looks like it might have the potential to do something.
I think we’re probably going to see a quick transition to a more linear mode due to the overall synoptic look down trending lately. 500mb trough is slower and noticeably weaker LLJ has started to exist.
@@FeRu.Raprodukcja Storm motion is not favorable for discrete supercells. Will have to rely on pre-frontal confluence and as soon as one storm goes, it's going to unzip an entire line. Sure you may get one rogue supercell, but an outbreak is looking less likely.
Definitely gonna be a hefty tornado outbreak this is shaping to be. Already got several warnings and we are early. Lot of tornado potential and waiting now to see if the MDT gets issued by the SPC. The amount of pre frontal discrete strong tornadoes looking so concerning. The environment looking amazing today.
Nadocast does poorly on these high end, synoptically evident days, so I don’t put much stock into it. It does much better on the low-end, sneakier days
Babe, wake up, Trey just dropped another masterclass
I seriously appreciate you tying in the research into your videos. You always produce exceptional content - Thank you!
Thank you so much!
Ugh today has me so anxious not only for me but my family in not only TX but Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas 😭 stay safe Trey!
Thank you; you stay safe, as well!
hi trey!! can’t wait to see what’ll transpire in my area. i won’t lie and say the hatched risk didn’t make the hairs on my neck raise 😭 prayers for everyone!!
Thank you once again for a great video / something I really like is the fact when you describe something, even if it’s a possible dire situation, you do it very calmly /thank you / so glad in Tulsa We just had rain today // you might find interesting some parts of our area have had over 10 inches of rain since October 30 and I also heard there was snow in Boise City ?
Thank you! I believe it; I just took a look at the Mesonet rainfall maps, and numerous areas have gotten a ton of rain in the last 7 days, including up there in the Tulsa area. And yes, there was snow out in the OK Panhandle yesterday!
I truly hate daylight savings. I think “Okay, this is the model run for 00Z, so that’s 7PM Centr…. Oh wait 🙄”. Now I gotta reprogram my mental translation of Zulu time lol
Same…it always takes me a few weeks to get the time change drilled into my brain
@ at least SPC outlooks come out an hour “earlier”
Honestly though it’s annoying, it makes more sense as now we’re back to 00z being 6 pm which makes more sense to my brain.
That stretch of storm relative inflow already helping a supercell near Shawnee, the day has started
Hi Trey! Thank you for blessing folks in the U.S. midwest, from TX up to Illinois, with your substantial forecasting & forecast assessment skills...AND your fantastic communication skills!
Thank you so much for the kind words!
Who up Convecting they Chronicles
Great video Trey 😁, I'm in the 10% hatched risk today so watching carefully
Thank you; be safe!
Never clicked on a video so fast
Ditto
🤣🤣🤣
I just can't tornado today 😩 I'm in SW MO and the sun keeps peeking out. Thx for the update, Trey.
The big decider today is whether or not we’re going to see discrete cells or it’s going to be messy.. the latest synoptic run looks to support more of a messy mode which would be better case for not getting the tornadoes. Great analysis as always Trey I’ve learned a ton from you!
Thank you! I agree; storm mode is key…if those open warm sector confluence bands can get going, we might have a better shot at discrete supercells.
Thanks for everything 🤗👍
Even DFW has an all hazards risk from 12-5PM from NWS Ft. Worth. The highest threat is damaging winds, followed by the tornado threat, flash flooding, and lowest threat - large hail.
Sun has been out and shining in the Tulsa metro since about 9am
Did they change the outlook again today right after you uploaded? Current outlook is showing that the severe threat actually pushed back out east a little bit.
They just trimmed off the western edge of the enhanced given current trends.
@ConvectiveChronicles gotcha. Appreciate the work you do and keeping us well informed. Thank you
@@outtaroute92 Thank you!
SPC just dropped a rather ominous MD (No. 2204) suggesting a heightened tornado threat across north TX including the DFW metro. *So far* storms seemed to have struggled a bit to become robust, but that one approaching the Grandview, TX area (as of 1350 CST/1950 UTC) looks like it might have the potential to do something.
Good news is the outflow boundary from the line to the west is quickly closing in and should keep the window relatively short for that activity.
thanks! i wonder why yesterday kind of underperformed (dont mean the overnight event)
Storm mode was quite unfavorable, and there may have been some thermodynamic issues as well
I think we’re probably going to see a quick transition to a more linear mode due to the overall synoptic look down trending lately. 500mb trough is slower and noticeably weaker LLJ has started to exist.
I have my doubts about a significant outbreak today... we'll see
Storm mode is the key....if a few discrete supercells will be able to mature in this enviroment they can cause big problems
@@FeRu.Raprodukcja Storm motion is not favorable for discrete supercells. Will have to rely on pre-frontal confluence and as soon as one storm goes, it's going to unzip an entire line. Sure you may get one rogue supercell, but an outbreak is looking less likely.
Will it be dangerous after 6pm in north dallas? All night?
Why don't u watch your local weather for the answers u need
Definitely need to keep an eye out through evening
my life goal is to meet trey
Definitely gonna be a hefty tornado outbreak this is shaping to be. Already got several warnings and we are early. Lot of tornado potential and waiting now to see if the MDT gets issued by the SPC. The amount of pre frontal discrete strong tornadoes looking so concerning.
The environment looking amazing today.
I doubt it,most outbreaks don't measure up to what is expected. I bet much won't happen as far as tornadoes go
@@dallascowboysnumber1fan Already 3 tornadoes today.
It’s possible; ample destructive storm interactions may keep a more widespread outbreak at bay.
@ConvectiveChronicles true, all depends also how the prefrontal band shape up too
Nadocast just produced a very concerning output for today, really hope it doesn't come true
Nadocast does poorly on these high end, synoptically evident days, so I don’t put much stock into it. It does much better on the low-end, sneakier days