Foundation: The Anomaly
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- Опубліковано 8 лют 2025
- In this video we continue our discussion about Dune VS Foundation. This video is a follow-up to my discussion on Dune and Foundation: Chaos Theory, While Paul fulfills a prophecy and accelerates an inevitable future, the Mule is a complete anomaly-an unpredictable force that breaks the very foundation (pun intended) of Hari Seldon’s psychohistorical plan. So, what does this say about determinism vs. chaos in science fiction?
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Hi Quinn,it´s guy here
Holy shit it's guy3numbers
Hi guy, I'm Dad
Guy hi, here Quinn
Hi dad I'm mom @@adamk.7177
Also guy here.
one part of the mule story that i thought was really interesting and would like to see explored more is how everyone was SO SURE that Seldon's next message would address the Mule, but was about a completely different crisis that their predicted future had veered off from. i thought it highlighted the passivity of a society that believes that the future can't hold any real surprises.
Btw, just want to mention that I love your intro.
Whenever I hear it my brain switches from "doomscrolling" mode to "pay attention because something really cool is going to be discussed" mode
An important thing to consider re: the science and “chaos theory”: At the time FOUNDATION was written, what we now think of as chaos theory (nondeterminism of nonlinear systems) wasn’t really a thing. But there WAS a related concept in physics which Asimov (as a trained chemist) certainly WOULD have known about: STATISTICAL MECHANICS. What psychohistory is, speaking from a physics background, is really a “statistical mechanics for people”. In thermodynamics we have been able to explain the transfer of heat and flow in gases and fluids for many decades, long before the advent of chaos theory. We can do this without knowing how any single gas or fluid molecule is moving or acting. But statistical mechanics is the mathematics of how MASSIVE numbers of idealized molecules will behave in response to stimuli such as heat, and it’s incredibly accurate at predicting thermodynamic behavior, again, without saying one damn thing about how any *individual* atom or molecule behaves. Asimov clearly patterened psychohistory on statistcal mechanics - it can’t say anything about how an individual person acts, but can quite accurately predict how mass numbers behave in the aggregate. In this sense, the Mule acts something like the imaginary “Maxwell’s Demon”, like moving atoms in a fluid from low density to high, rather than in the reverse, which is normal. The laws of statisical mechanics wouldn’t predict the result if you have a Maxwell’s Demon pusing atoms around in the gas in contravention of how the normal laws of physics work.
Small nitpicky point -- chaos can be (and usually is) still deterministic. It's about sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
true. amateur scientist here
Two details about how Chaos Theory works from "Jurassic Park;" 1) in the novel during the lunch scene Malcolm compares a computer system to weather and states that no matter how simple the operation is eventually there will be enough small variables to throw off the expected outcome, and 2) in both the movie and novel after demonstrating (using water from the cup) a practical effect he tells Dr. Satler; "small variations in skin tempeature, imperfections in the skin, even heart rate can affect the direction." In "Foundation" Hari Seldon describes psychohistory in a similar manner to Chaos Theory
Foundation is like a heist movie: Hari Seldon sets up the absolutely perfect plan to break the empire and rebuild it 1000 years later. The plan starts, everything is perfect until something goes terribly wrong, oh no - camera cuts to Hari having already thought about something going wrong and having a backup team in place from the start.
reminds me of that heist episode from rick and morty. backup of a backup of a backup and so on.
Plots within plots
I always liked how the characters had to figure out how to overcome the Mule and keep psychohistory on track.
A new video on Foundation, what a great day!!!
So true. Paul = "Be careful what you wish for". The Mule = "One bite of one apple does not make you Omniscient".
Exactly they are the different sides of the same coin. If you can plan & predict, it can have unforseen consequences VS there will always be unforeseen consequences no matter how well you plan & predict.
A cautionary tale either way.
Well said
Put what I was gonna say perfectly.
"One bite of one apple does not make you Omniscient"
Why do you think the concept of "original sin" is in the first book of the Bible?
food for thought.
@@nobody8717 Metaphors are a thing. The reference is not to original sin; it alludes to the failure to recognize one's limited knowledge.
Feels like Foundation treats chaos as an outlier, a problem to be solved in pursuit of perfect determinism. Like a rock thrown into a pond, the ripple will eventually fade. Whereas Dune seems to see the Chaos as an inherent internal part of the system. It acknowledges the infinite interplay of vibrations within the pond and how no matter how hard you try, you'll never have a truly still pond. Given enough time those miniscule ripples will combine to become a tidal wave.
Fascinating comment, I have often talked to people about the affects of tossing pebbles into the pond of humanity. You watch the ripples then toss another pebble....
That sounds like a nice way of looking at it, almost like one seeks control and the other accepts that control is out of their hands
@@mark.J6708Suddenly, reading your comment I'm thinking of the "ripple effect" of time travel and the theory of Temporal Causality. If nothing is truly linear then Paul's presience is essentially acting on the past to lead in the direction of his ancestors' and thus creating an unseen temporal tsunami that forces himself and Leto II into forging the Golden Path to "lessen" the pain in the future
I had thought that the Mule was a demonstration of the limits of Psycho-history, rather that a disruption of the plan.
I tend to agree. By definition no theory can ever be perfect
It was both, 1) the Mule as an individual wasn't calculated nor expected, 2) his intense psycho-manipulative abilities forced such a change that accelerated Seldon's plan, and 3) coming out of nowhere from a planet unknown to either Foundation was an aberration as he was expelled for seeking "more than offered"
Great video, as always ! One trope in sci fi that has always fascinated me is the "great devourer" one, Zerg, tyranids, the thing, as if there is a common fear of something greater than us in space ready to eat and assimilate us ^^
As a Star Trek fan this also sounds like the Borg's entire agenda of seeking perfection and stating; "We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us." Nothings sounds as intimidating as the multi-layered voices of being told "you will join us"
@andrewmalinowski6673 i had never thought of that but true, it's again the whole assimilation thing :-)
your videos on foundation and dune are what got me into writing sci fi, more please
The foundation series was my gateway into sci-fi as an entry level adult in the 90s. I just reread the series last year. I did that after watching one of your videos pertaining to this body of work and now I'm onto Rendezvous with Rama after I finish , 'City at worlds end'. I enjoy your take on these stories. Thank you.
Content like this reinforces my faith in humanity.
Oh buddy, I’m stoked for the multi hour history of sci fi episode!
0:36 QUINN, GIVE ME THAT HARD BOUND COPY OF THE FOUNDATION TRILOGY AND MY SOUL IS YOURS
SAINTRICARDO IS OFFERING A GOOD DEAL, QUINN!
I have the same edition, it was pretty cheap as well.
I have a copy as well. Bought it on sale at Barnes & Noble for cheap years ago. There's a few copies on Ebay now for ~$30USD
I prefer the paper cover with that picture on the entire cover. I kinda hate that they made it small and put some cheap (green?) tech stuff around it. Unfortunately Foundation doesn't have good hard covers, I'd love to get poor buying it.
Hi Quinn, Long time LOVER of the channel but my first time commenting.
I think you're correct about Paul being a feature, not a flaw of the anti-deterministic principles governing the Dune Universe, and so then the Mule's existence in the Foundation Series would be largely contrary to the rules of the Foundation Universe.
The idea which rings large in my mind while comparing these two characters is that Seldon's Plan assumes individuals dont have much of an impact upon the outcome of the Plan because psychohistory is comprised on principles of large scale, mass movents and interplay--whereas in Dune, first, Lady Jessica's decision to have a son for Leto, then most everything her son Paul and Paul's son do throughout their lifetimes, and even every child planned by the Bene Gesserit for milennia prior would scream to me that there is power to the individual given which can in fact change the course of the universe.
I think power of an individual is maybe the biggest difference initially between the two authors' take on far-future humanity.
Then I get to thinking that while in the Foundation series the Mule's actions certainly create a large impact and possibly the acceleration of the collapsing empire, it is salvaged by the Second Foundation within a few hundred years.
In Dune, the minute actions of the a select few who could quite literally be classified as galactic-oligarchical characters change the course of humanity (for better or worse, but dramatically nonetheless) for some 10,000 years.
Having been released 1951-1953, It would seem to me that Asimov had implied intentionally or unintentionally through the Foundation series that if society were more egalitarian and no one person were be able to affect such drastic change, society would be able to recover more quickly from a chaotic entity such as the Mule. He ruled for less than a decade if I recall correctly, and they recovered within about 500 years I believe.
Terminus changes its role in the galaxy serveral times throughout the series, first being comprised of encyclopedists, then becoming dominant in the physichal sciences, then becoming merchant princes and traders, and eventually germinating into the roots of the Second Empire. (Im halfway through Foundations Edge currently so I am actually unsure how things play out in the end)
Now, compare this Foundation series galactic society of predicatble and mostly reliable humans occupying the galaxy with mostly shared values if only in possession of differing agendas to the rigid and feudal society of Dune.
Compare the rigid class structure of the Dune universe, faufreluches, and how planetary oligarchies within that social structure enable not only more widespread dramatic and devastating revolution upon the galaxy but also for far longer stretches of time. Paul's Fremen literally commit a successful Jihad because. Leto II rules for some 5,000 years trying to un-fuck the universe into his outsider-yet-most-insider imagination of what humanity ought to be. Sure, Paul sensed the momentum of his decisions--that is to say there was wind in his sails and he could only steer--still, his steering alone caused billions to die, wheras the Mule's usuurpal was comparatively bloodless and comparatively quick to ignite, and comparatively quick to undo.
Could it be that between these two authors, they are advocating unintentionally for a more morally and ethically egalitarian society? Could they be illuminating to us the evils of hyperbolic wealth distribution and extreme individual power?
There are oligarchs in Foundation, but I dont recall the Mule being from a wealthy noble house, nor do I recall the Fremen being especially open to changing their customs.
The traders of the Foundation have major impacts on the outcome of events in the universe as do the scholars and politicians along with the Hamish people upon the Second Foundation.
It might be that because individuals are flawed and people as a whole are predictable amoungst both series that stagnation and social momentum occurs.
Societal routine. A schedule for the masses unseen by the masses.
It would seem to me that both series ultimately suggest an equalizing of power to the individuals of a galactic society--or any society--would serve to benefit the stability and comparative safety of a society over time. When one person or a select few people possess supreme influence upon the rest of society, society does not only suffer for it but also requires a longer time to recover from the damages done because of it.
Thats my thesis right there I suppose. So far thats the main point I'm getting from each series and I think its a powerful notion because it seems more and more that we are sliding into paradigms not to distant from the oligarchies of Dune, or the sublte yet effective "mentalic powers of influence" the Mule and the Second Foundation possess in Foundation (Compare the Mule's emotional influence abilities to the ability of our social media algorithms today...relatively bloodless but not in the least bit ineffective).
Both series would suggest that consolidation of power is never a good thing for humanity.
I would love to know your thoughts on this interpretation, though it is not my only interpretation of either series.
Cant wait for that hours-long video man, and I love these fireside chat style meditaion videos.
Best,
Drewskii
To add more (if you can believe it) I would suggest also that each series is a product of their time. Nucleics in Foundation are the speciality of the First Foundation, the very technology upon which they discover their intitial fortune. Nuclear powered impact driver? As an electrician I would absolutely love a drill which needed no batteries until my 6th generation grandchildren needed to get a new one--the cast iron of power tools!
Nucleaics and computers in Foundation are essential to the story of its brand of sci-fi, in that they are physichal technologies which when understood fully are enablers of wealth and prosperity.
The Spice on the other hand is fundamentally an unclean substance. Of course, it allows for non-computer space travel, but the consequence is inevitably the domination and subjugation of the humans occupying the only planet the substance is found upon. Much like oil.
Ive always thought of the Spice melange as "the oil that gets you high"" and so there is the reminder of mysticism in Dune, right? The prized commodity in the universe is the very same thing with allows one to control the universe not only through space travel allowances but also in some people by enabling psychoactive predictions of possible futures while under its influence.
The Spice is not objectively scientific at first. The spice is described as something akin to the ayahuasca root, or the psilocybin in magic mushrooms. That is to say that "visions" rather than "equations" are the methodology of its effectiveness.
Foundation being a product of the 1950's and Dune being a product of the 1970's, I should say that both largely attempt to tell similar, if not the same story, through different cultures of real-world temporal biases.
The anomoly in Foundation was something to be fixed, repaired, remembered, and prevented.
The anomoly in Dune was something to be not quite celebrated but necessary, an invitation at to firm restructuring of morals upon the universe as a whole, something which may be non-repeatable in nature as it is only Paul who is granted these visions and direction from the spice.
You can see in the way I must describe each anomoly that 1950's America was a far more logical and scientifically consise time, and 1970's America was a far more loose and mystically influenced time.
I think each are a product of their time and they each warn us in their own ways of the consolodation of power into the hands of a few individuals throughthe world building and methodologies of their main Anomolies.
Clearly, you should comment more often, as you hold back many worthwhile insights & lines of reasoning.
I have been thinking quite a bit about the impact of chaos on our current state of affairs. SciFi is a vey reassuring source of wisdom from the minds of previous generations. It’s been a bumpy ride for millennia. Complete failure without intelligent, compassionate intervention has always been a real consequence.
The adaptable 2nd Foundation was able to change their dynamic plan on the fly to deal with the Mule's disruption and estimate the probability of success, whereas the Bene Gesserit lacked the ability to quantitatively adjust their static plan to deal with Paul's deviation. The Mule's powers were greater than Paul's, yet succumbed to the plans within plans of the psychohistorians.
Hardly surprising, since Seldon's deterministic understanding of psychohistorical sociology is rooted in biology, which is based on chemistry, which is grounded in physics. It isn't clear that the Kwisatz Haderach could equal Seldon's plan to create a durable society after a galactic dark age that could transition to Galaxia, which can fend off even hostile galaxies, and create a cosmic AC, to solve entropy.
I really disagree with this in some fundamental ways. Foundation is not simply about the idea of psychohistory as something that can predict the future; each book asks a different question building on the previous ones. The first one asks "can the future be predicted?" and finds the answer to be yes, the second asks "can this account for everything?" and finds the answer no, the third asks "can we work around this?" and finds the answer yes, the fourth asks "is this the best course for humanity?" and finds the answer no, and the fifth asks "what is a better way?" and finds its answer. I only feel like the first 1.5 books are really about this deterministic idea, as the book then moves on to the next question from there.
Dune on the surface seems to be about chaos, with unpredictable events happening, but later takes on an almost religious angle of "the future is largely inevitable yet is largely beyond anyone's ability to control." It is revealed that the Bene Geserit would never have been able to control the Kwisatz Haderach. Paul cannot stop the Jihad. Leto is only able to follow the Golden Path laid out in front of him, not really able to make his own plan. The later books contain themes of inevitability, though little is predictable before it happens.
I will never be able to thank you enough for creating these video.
I don’t watch every video, but if I ever need something sci fi explained to me in a thorough and detailed way, I check here first
I will need to watch this again. My brain needs to wade through the elements. Presentation was well done. I have read both the Foundation trilogy and the six Dune books and enjoyed them both. thanks Quinn. Peace
So I think the more interesting comparison is Paul / Leto II / Atreides Golden Path vs the Seldon Plan / Psychohistory. Both are focused on an ultimate end goal, at the expense of the "now". But allow people to know there is a plan, but not what the plan actually is. Both would collapse if too many people knew the steps of the plan - People need to behave naturally, they can't compensate or "help". Second Foundation is a kin to Leto II in that regard.
I do think the Bene Gesserit plan is for a person and power, where the Golden Path is truly looking at the tapestry of time and finding a route (or path) to a desired outcome, which the Seldon plan is also doing, just using statistical modeling and mathematics. Both need chaos as a balancing agent to make for predicting the larger trend.
Hey quinn, been a fan for a long time. Chaos Theory has many analytical and numerical tools to study trajectories like bifurcation maps. Chaotic systems have stable attractors and steady states in their solution space that you can nudge them towards. From that perspective you can perhaps say that both stories have institutions that are trying to steer a complex system to a stable attractor and maintain that state knowing full well that deviations can steer the system back into the chaotic regime of trajectories.
The Mighty Quinn has posted. The mind just wanders along enjoying a great discussion.
Man Quinn keeps blowing my mind with these thought provoking videos keep em coming
Though there is an argument to bring chaos theory into Asimovs writingg of Foundation and Empire and Second Foundation, i think a better argument is around a theory of determinism. A good example would be the idea that "throwing stones can't change the flow or momentum of a river on any large scale" . There may be local deviations due to disruptions introduced, but the momentum of an overall force will guide it to it's original destination.
In otherwords, the momentum of the Foundation is so powerful, that even a small singular disruption is not enough to change the course of history!
Good stuff. Quinn, where did you purchase that edition of the Foundation Trilogy?
Hey Quinn, i love your channel bro. You've inspired me to pick up reading again, thanks!
Excellent, you absolutely nailed both the similarities and the difference between Paul and the Mule.
I'm not the biggest fan of the Foundation sequels, but it's such a great 'oh shit' moment when they're all watching Seldon's update call and they realize he's not talking about the Mule, and that something has gone horribly wrong
The Bene Gesserit operated for centuries under the assumption that they could be Hari Seldon, that bringing about true future prediction would enable them to be the saviors of humanity. Instead it turned out to be a threat that it would take Leto II centuries to stop.
cudos to your intro, it really sets the vibe. always a treat
What I loved about the Foundation series is that; 1) Hari Seldon in "Foundation" explains that learning from history large numbers (10K+) people can be calculated and thus determine what will happen, 2) the emergence of the Mule is a huge wrench in Seldon's predetermined expectations not only throws off the Seldon Plan but also later accelerated the plan to almost 500 years, 3) the Second Foundation (originally intended to be improvement on mental abiliteis) acts as a backup when the science-based (First) Foundation is corrupted by the Mule, and 4) given the known limits the way it sets up the expectation of a singular alternative later leads to a three-way fork in the crossroads to rebuild the Galactic Empire.
Since I didn't read the majority of the Foundation series until after Crichton's "Jurasic Park: A Novel" I came to see Psychohistory as a galactic/society-wide version of Chaos Theory and made me appreciate "Foundation and Empire" even more when it brought in the Mule. Both systems are focused on large-scale calculations and ignore the small-scale deviations, which in "Foundation's Edge" established that the Mule was an aberration even from Gaian society
❤❤❤ always blown away by your analyses!
My most favorite sci fi story teller along with Sabine Hossenfelder my favorite Physicist...Quinn is just phenomenal. Panels dont cut it like his solo videos do. They are all a tour de force
Thanks for answering our comments about the Mule. It's an interesting interpretation. I think it might be interesting to see the Mule as a black swan event. Scientific predictions are made on the understanding that all of the relevant data exists in order to successfully predict the future. A black swan event is by definition an unknown possible phenomena that was completely ignored by the would be predictor for the obvious reason that they had no idea that it was a possibility. What's interesting is that the novel seems to indicate that the Mule was a statistical inevitability. Given a high enough galactic population it was inevitable that such a mutation would occur in the population. So perhaps Harry Seldon simply made an error in not thinking of it. No matter because the Second Foundation comes along and corrects it. This can be seen as a theory simply adapting to new data and thus slightly changing itself. So your basic analysis about the Foundation's deterministic view of history is correct and the Mule is the exception that proves the rule. As for the Dune universe, I confess I've never read them, (I've just seen the movies). So I kind feel a little out of my element in discussing it.
I like the comparison between Paul Atreides and Erin Yeager definitely not in the context of chaos but more on the deterministic side. For both Paul and and maybe even more so Leto II there was only one way forward that requried much distruction just like Erin's path forward.
Can you imagine if the fates had you write one thing in a book and some chaos agent swoops in and makes you write something else entirely, changing the intended, pre-planned course of human literature 😱
Love your work, love these videos
I am so glad to find out this was not about the M.U.L.E. Game. You had me worried.
Interesting comparison! Without wanting to spoil too much here: As you know, in subsequent parts of the Foundation series, eventually, after the Second Foundation, there also comes a third planet and power, to correct everything after the Mule (as discovered by Trevize) ... and then one more mind in relation to that one ... 🙂 Good luck with the further writing & work
You may want to have a look at a book called Psychohistorical Crisis, but Donald Kingsbury. It's serves as an unofficial semi-sequel to the whole Foundation series, explicitly dealing with the effect of Chaos on Psychohistory.
So glad to see you doing foundation! I liked this series much more than Dune
I do enjoy these shorter discussion oriented videos! Would love to see more.
If i could ask for one addition, it would be for you to include more specific plot points concerning the points of discussion. Since all my knowledge about foundation comes only from your videos, i‘m struggling a bit to keep up. Some plot points/ spoilers to examplify your points would make it a bit easier for me to follow. Just my 2cts though, not intended as criticism!
Great videos! Would you ever consider doing a video that explores the different forms of consciousness, awareness, and intelligence in sci fi? I love your Blindsight videos, and I wonder what a scale would look like from non sentient creatures to sentient, like scramblers at zero self awareness to humans or something else. Throw in tons of other organisms like tri solarans, the brain bug from starship troopers, or the xenomorph queen and the various other alienforms. I haven’t seen a scale like that on UA-cam yet. Thanks for all you do, good luck!
Hi Quinn!
I’m usually a silent viewer but I just have to tell you how much I love your content.
I can’t watch this video yet because I haven’t started the show - I honestly use your videos like a recommendation page. I’m super excited to come back once I’ve watched it.
I saw another comment asking if you’re going to talk about Severance, to which you said yes. Did you mean the book or TV show?
The TV show is honestly consuming my life right now and I think I’d die if you made a video about it, having said that I enjoy all your videos equally, even the ones about stuff I haven’t heard of before.
Sorry this was long - I’m a yapper.
Have a great day! ❤
It is probably worth considering the appendices of the original Dune, here. I'm thinking specifically of the "postmortem" on Paul written from the Bene Gesserit perspective, where they basically throw up their hands and say "How could we have ever thought to control such a one?" but... that same essay ALSO implies that the Bene Gesserit were themselves being controlled by something operating on a higher dimensional level. Paul? Something controlling him? It doesn't say, but it dovetails HARD with your discussion in this video.
Love your works!
A great analysis. The mule and the Kwisatz Haderach share some similarities, but they are still fundamentally different.
Chaos theory isn't just about unpredictability, the concept of strange attractors confine changes into ranges, and saddle points are the sensitive events that induce phase change, assuming you hit those point. There is some degree of predictability, it's informed bet, you don't know the exact state, but you know the possibles ranges, you don't know if it will change, but you know where it can change with sufficient state, given continuous observation you can reliably predict in a narrow range, given sufficiently control, you can adjust deviation into desirable outcomes, that’s homeostasis.
A related issue to the ones you discuss is the role of human free will vs. determinism. Free will is a much bigger idea than chaos theory. Chaos, after all, does not challenge the idea of determinism. The world can still be absolutely determined, but with chaos it simply becomes exceedingly difficult, or perhaps impossible, to calculate future states with accuracy.
In the original Foundation (not including the later-written novels), Asimov seems pretty clearly committed to determinism. The heroes prior to the appearance of the Mule all think they are exercising free will but they really are just playing in Hari Seldon's pre-determined psychohistorical playground. The Mule is a chaos agent but he doesn't really threaten the predetermination. While Seldon didn't predict the Mule, he did predict threats like the Mule and therefore created the Second Foundation to deal with them. And, in the end, the Mule's interventions failed to derail the Plan.
In the original Dune books, by contrast, free will seems to mean a great deal. For example, the Lady Jessica, Paul, and (to a much greater degree) Leto II all seem to make freely chosen decisions that work enormous changes on the course of history. Free will is consequential, even though it can be very difficult for the actors to predict the consequences of their choices.
Another great video, Quinn. 👍
Thank you Quinn 🤙
Keep up the great work! Would love for your research to be delved more into the academic field.
well defended and explained position
Foundation is such cool idea of a story
Thanks Quinn.
I feel like Fundation's Psychohistoryis a bit different than Dunes, Psychohistory I think operates base on human nature which results in the cycle of organization on a larger scale such as chaos, rebirth, growth, peak, stagination, fall, chaos, rebirth etc.. so he sees the fall of empire as inevtiable, but he wants to make sure the fall isn't so bad that the chaos will absolute earse the seed for rebirth, this is kinda of what happen to the Roman empire, the fall was so bad that no government pick it up, AND in contrast I would also recommend you to research the contemporary Chinese empire which is the Han dynasty, which it was also peaking near when Rome peaked and many would argue it was more powerful than Rome in its own way, and funny thing is that it too fall also very similar at the same as Rome fall, but unlike Rome, after a while, another just as powerful dynasty arose in China that pretty much united the whole of China and they too achieve another golden age, so this would be like if someone unified all of Roman empire in the 600-700AD and make it even more powerful. Then that Chinese empire fall after a few hundred years, another chaos period for a while then another one... then another one etc... and this whole pattern is actually repated until TODAY, you again have a unified China today and many Chinese see the current governmnet just as the latest dynasty.
Anyways, sorry for that long text, as for Dune, I feel ilke the Bene Gesserit actually operates on an even bigger version where they ultimate see the end of human race as we know it, and this is probably the most likey possibility, unless they guide it to the correct path with avoids this fate. But as to exactly how.. i feel like even their order don't know it, but there is a certain mysticism involved that is supernatural that whoever is alive in the current time fame of the Bene Gesserit organization kind can felt what is the action they can do to be closer to this path or further away from it etc... so they atually don't really know the final goal until achieve.. or they won't know and still working towards this goal because this goal has no end as the universe is ever evolving, so the source of their power, is much more mysterious, but they all strongly belive in it and willing to do whatever it takes to get closer to this goal.
It's been decades since I read the novel featuring the Mule. In fact, in the scene where the council comes together to listen to Harry Seldon, all the sudden they find out how badly the plans path had been completely altered due to the machinations of the Mule. Everyone at this juncture believes that Harry Seldon's mathematics can only predict the macrocosm of human interaction. Large groups, businesses, governments, empires, entire planets. But his math fails on the microcosm. Supposedly. The single wrench of a single persona. Enter the Mule, who is empathic and can use his own power to affect other individuals, hence where he threatens to alter the perceptions of the female protagonist to become more submissive to his own commands. His power of course allowed him to gain allies, which placed him at the top of power, and derailing Harry Seldon's Psychohistory. But as in the case of the Mule, his name is well earned since we learn, he cannot have children.
Now, as the series progressed, we learn the 2nd Foundation worked hard to rearrange history, back to Harry Seldon's psychohistory path along the original course, by directly intervening in events afterwards. And since the Second Foundation worked on intervening, that would mean that they have access to Harry Seldon's complete messages of history from start to finish of what was going to occur to bring the long darkness to an end. There are some arguments that have been floating around for several decades that say that Harry Seldon's math jumps segments within history, and The Mule was all part of the plan. If that's the case, when the council came together, they learned of events that were supposed to come true, according to Harry Seldon, but were stopped in their tracks by The Mule. This brings up the idea, that for some reason, between authors such as Isaac Asimov and Frank Herbert, that those with a higher mental power or mental affinity to time are immune to macrocosmic events and instead are able to shape them to their own outcomes. Sadly, if the Second Foundation was able to intervene, to bring the course of history back on track, does that even mean that Harry Seldon's math was even needed, or even predicted anything in the first place. If the Second Foundation had the power to alter events, to create a specific outcome, then Harry Seldon's psychohistory becomes irrelevant and unnecessary.
The Question comes down to, did Harry Seldon's math, perceive The Mule or not. We have a course of history on the macrocosm, leading along a projected route. The Mule comes forth and derails this path in a microcosmic way. But after the Mule, the Second Foundation intervenes to once again bring the path back on course along the macrocosmic path. Did Harry Seldon know about The Mule, because later the Foundation intervenes to rewrite the path back to what it was before The Mule appeared on scene. And if the Foundation had the power to change the course of historic events to bring it back into the psychohistory of Harry Seldon, wouldn't that mean that Harry Seldon's "proclamations" were never needed. If you wanted to say, shorten the great darkness from 10,000 years to 1,000 years, then you can create any number of outcomes in history to shorten that span without needing psychohistory to learn of a specific outcome on a macroscopic scale.
I enjoyed the Foundation series, but The Mule actually creating a paradox within the universe, not only by definition of the plot, but the plot-hole created by the Foundation with the power to redact or rewrite events to change the course of the future, which renders Harry Seldon as unneeded as a driver of the story.
Over 30 years since I read Foundation. I also liked Robots and Empire and was happy that Asimov was able to tie things together for fans in the end. I think when the first group of Encyclopedia writers at the edge of the galaxy ware a distraction and there was another group that was of more importance I worried less of whether or not Psycho history was the be all and end all of inevitable outcome. The Mule I considered some manifestation that would be played out. Never went to the deeper meaning of what Asimov was using as representative of the science or philosophy and ethics. Was the Mule a threat to a proper predicted outcome of the accepted theory and the need for some hope and a future in the midst of the collapsing empire. It has been a while but I thought in the end Seldon had accepted that you could scientifically proceed but could not guarantee an outcome and life would go on and that's OK. I focused on some of the concepts like folding space and the schematics of the ships myself. I think in comparison I found Robots more engaging. Did not read Dune. My brother did and I asked him what he thought of the book and he responded that there were too many characters. Based on the Dune films I think it more explicitly deals with the spiritual and the mind as a weapon to influence which may be making a statement toward influence affecting change and outcome.
I came here expecting a video about the SCP Foundation. This was still good though 😂
I would compare the Bene Gesserit to the Second Foundation, which does tweak and guide the Plan. They even have their own version of The Voice.
Most shocking thing was seeing your initial greeting and plug for Patreon without your hat on.
Seriously, I'm very used to you wearing it in every appearance and its absence is notable.
Maybe Leto II is closer to being the real disruption? Paul broke the system more than the Bene Geserit expected, but they almost had it back on the right track with Ghanima. But Leto II derails everything.
I LIVE FOR THIS
From Second Foundation onward, Psychohistory feels more like a local model that can't be used for long term prediction without interference. The psychohistorians have to ride the tiger really hard to compensate for disruptive events, much smaller events than The Mule.
Please forgive me, but I'll use the derivative or low order Taylor series as an analogy. I'll agree in spirit that the Foundation series does treat large scale geopolitics(astropolitics?) as mostly behaving like a smooth function, at least on some useful time scales. While Dune treats the same more like a function that can't be approximated as easily, like the sharp contours of prices on the stock market.
Then again, even the first Foundation novel admits that psychohistory has limits, and that it only works on appropriate scales of time and population.
It's like acknowledging that the orbits of all the stars in the galaxy are chaotic, but also that we can predict what it'll look like from a distance as a whole well into the future. You can't predict where one particular star will be three galactic rotations from now, but you can say that Sag A* will still be at the center, and what size the bar and arms of the galaxy will be.
But yeah, Foundation does have a tone that tells you the series started publication well before the codification of modern approaches to nonlinear dynamics.
i love your shit man - the vibes are immaculate
The way we make AI today with what is fundamentally just huge matrices of number weights shows that Asimov was not so far off when he made up Psychohistory as a mathematical discipline.
You’re the GOAT Quinn. 🐐🐐🐐
Paul is so connected with his son that i feel like he really tried to control the universe, its just in a way the bene gesserit didnt like.
The Mule is a bit of a... lampshade? Because that dynamic was based on psycho-history only predicting large population level trends, which is disrupted by someone like the Mule who had the ability, as an individual, to cause large scale societal changes - but that complete ignores that this has happened, both in real history and even in Foundation's world, without needing anyone with special powers like that of the Mule. The Spartans holding off the Persians at Thermopylae, Alexander the Great trekking and spreading Hellenic culture all the way to the Indus, Napoleon losing his Grand Armée in the Russian Winter. Even Hari Seldon discovering psycho-history itself and setting up Foundation and the Second Foundation - all these were the actions and results of one or a small number of people which has societal wide effects.
Also at 6:30 - 7:00 ish, I'm not sure if it was intentional but you've contradicted yourself: you say that Jessica's personal choice to have a son spirals into unintended consequences, but then go on to say that even Paul's prescience didn't allow him to true control and that he was still trapped on his 'inevitable path'. That's literally predeterminasm - people being able to control it through their free will (via foresight or prescience) is the opposite of predeterminasm, which is that everything will happen no matter what you want.
Great Video
Given that I'm taking an upper division math course on mathematical Modeling at the moment, I had to stop myself from going down a rabbit hole by attempting to translate your hypothesis into the terms of initial conditions, stochastic vs deterministic modeling, and the influence of unaccounted for factors that cause a model to fail when ∆t exceeds a certain threshold. Would be fun, but hw calls, unfortunately.
amazing video
Another great video. Any chance there some Quinn's Ideas merch in the pipeline?
hey, happy new year, and yeah defo dune very much embraces chaos theory. foundation was much more structured in outlook. definitely the "big plan" or "new deal" vibe. big brother ish but not out to get you sort of thing, lol.
Apologies for “well actually”. But actually Chaos Theory is not that there always unknown variables. It instead shows that the future state of fully deterministic nonlinear systems inevitably cannot be predicted. That the future state will depend on unmeasurable infinitesimal differences in initial conditions. The double pendulum is a canonical example. Nothing external or random is required to have two “identical and idealized”(to any degree of precision) double pendulums differ in position over time.
And i will be watching the WHOOOLE thing😌👌🏾 0:53
Have you ever watched or looked into the Battlestar Galactica series? Small spoiler warning... It's idea of eternal recurrence/time being on an almost exact loop of itself is very similar in the moment to the idea of the Bene Gesserit plans within plans and the Foundation's Psycho-history. There are even players in BSG that act behind the scenes to make sure that time continues along "God's Plan." It gets close to religion too but maintains a firm footing in the idea that extremely advanced previous civilizations would look like gods and magic users to us(similar to Bene Gesserit's use of the Voice, or the Gaians' abilities). I'd love to hear your thoughts and interpretations!
Also I considered using AI (Microsoft Copilot) to make my comment more concise and stuff but didn't in honor of BSG's ban on AI computing/Dune's ban on computers because of the Butlerian Jihad, and the Robots series from Asimov.
Here !!! 😊
Que buena comparación
Quinn! Great vid as usually, but listen. You have to read "Exodus the Archimedes Engine" by Peter F. Hamilton. I think he wrote it for you I swear. And it's amazing.
I'm sure it's been said but a political difference which usually ends up bothering me in some sci-fi/fantasy stories is the monarchy-centric navel-gazing vs Asimov's more transversal character importance in the development of the story
While the thematic similarity of Paul and The Mule is interesting, I don't think it's a lens through which to view the two stories that leads to something broader and more interesting.
Ideas about the long-term predictability of history were percolating a lot in the SF community. I think of the Dune series as a complete takedown of the idea that you would want such a thing even if it were possible.
Leto II's whole goal is to make him impossible in the future of humanity as a whole. People despise him for the political stability his prescience brings. The Butlerian jihad as Frank Herbert originally envisioned it was a rejection of the outsourcing of this kind of stability brought by prediction to machines.
I see Dune as a refutation of the premise of Foundation.
lets goooooooo🎉🎉
Even more than the mule, the ending of Foundation and Earth completely rejects the core principles of precalculating the fate of the galaxy in favor of the organic development offered by Gaia.
It's a great ending to the saga that both completes the story in a clever way but also expands the universe in an exciting and unforseen way.
WE LOVE QUINN
this several hours longs could be a serie or podcast...
It makes you wonder, why didn't the mentats develop a version of psycho- history( as indicated by the God emperor/ them being a source of opposition). They new of the (BG) breeding program and its implications.
Jar Jar was supposed to be the Mule of Star Wars
7:24 Or as my generation said, "Life, uh... finds a way."
Quinn will you cover the Xeelee Sequence?
I always thought that the Mule was a bad character, too powerful. Then the 2nd Foundation was sort of a deus ex machina that wrapped up the series in a happy ending.
Lovd your sruff🎉
almost 1M SUBS
I dunni if I hqbe a question worth asking but why not compare the 'Cleons to the bene-gesserit breedkmg prpgram?
These have always struck me as the "same" only focused from different perspectives. In one it's loosely the tale of a singularly "enlightened" or "empowered" individual whose enraptured by their own godhood, no matter the cost to the society and individuals. The other is loosely the tale of an ivory tower intellectual so ensorceled by the beauty of their "grand solution" that the effects and impact of the individual is unimportant.
This is a highly compressed summation that hacks off large, and important pieces, of the narrative and theory for brevity.
The mule had to be added as a person rather than a disruptive technology. It was only by adding a different element To the gas that history would change.
Paul isn't that much of a disruption.
Sure, Bene Gesserit had pretty miserable 3500 years, but then they're back in control, probably stronger than ever. Paul and Leto II look a lot like fulfilment of the plan.
I see quin. I watch.