Brilliant, brilliant discussion. As an avid consumer of financial content I often tire of people with opposing views being too passive and cordial in their disagreement, which then prevents many of the opposing views from being explored in enough depth. Whilst some Rosie v Harley encounters were tense, it enabled the crux of the issues to be explored in raw unfiltered terms and provided more value to the listener rather than the subtle meandering around issues we often see. Good job to Mike for the balanced moderation and good job all for the respect shown to each other at the end. I loved it! KIS is fast becoming one of the more valuable discussion forums available in yhe financial markets today. Thank you to you all.
I love Rosie. He’s so SMART. He always has reasons behind his statements. No one can debate his facts. Unfortunately, he is more often wrong than right. Having followed his advice during COVID and afterward. I missed the Bull market in stocks, then I missed the bear market in treasuries. Why does he always sound smart and still get it wrong.
Dave debates like Peter schiff… just don’t take a breath and keep moving to the next point so a counter can never be made (regardless of right or wrong)
Peter is right on most stuff, except... politics. He doesn't get that society and gov really shape the economy and not the other way around. Dave gets how politics influence markets, but yeah same style.
How does this channel not have a million subscribers yet? You have the best insights in macro and terrific hosts, keep up the great work and thank you!
Mike, I always learn something when I listen to you, thank you. You demonstrate the absence of by Philips relationship going back to 1970. You suggest that the Fed is therefore misguided in raising rates and potentially, unemployment in the interest of reducing inflation on the basis of that “ relationship”. But the Fed made its policy of low rates and QE on the basis of the same curve from 209 to 2020, with some small deviations. So if it’s misguided now, was it misguided then? And if so, could one construe these rate increases as a very belated “normalization”, particularly given that many market participants have criticized the Fed for blowing bubbles on the basis of that policy for a long time now.
Jennifer, thanks for watching. I have been critical of the Fed for relying on Philip’s Curve throughout. Led to errors in 1970s and overconfidence 2003-2007. Unfortunately, “two wrongs don’t make a right” and you can’t normalize in this manner. If you get lung cancer from smoking, you don’t cure it by not smoking.
That was fantastic 👍Harley is as lovable & curmudgeon as the Fantastic Four’s ever loving blue eyes Thing. David brought the fire & back talk of the Human Torch & like Mr. Fantastic, Mike patiently observed & only intervened when appropriate. Great dialogue gentlemen 👍
If you have this guy back, please let him just monologue and give a presentation, or interview him.. Listening to him repeat his points in circles, without leaving room for Harley (who I understand can be overly aggressive in debate) to get a word in edgewise, gets frustrating fast. I'm sure he's a genius but this format does him no favours.
Mike and Rosenberg say they are economic historians, but they seem to pick and choose the history they cite. Inflation did not go straight up in the 1970’s going into the 80’s. Inflation was just high throughout the whole period. It is disingenuous to say that just because we have ticked down for 2 months now in inflation that it is no longer an issue and it is transitory, and it only lasted 16 months. Inflation is still in the mid 8’s and if it jostles around 3,4,5% for the next few years that doesn’t make it “transitory” because it didn’t go above the 9.1% we saw earlier this year.
Dave: "working moms are now at a record high, that's encouraging." Ummm, okay. I guess we have different ideas about the metrics that a healthy society should show. A lovely and lively debate, otherwise!
Good chat, I actually agreed with Harley the most about Powell’s ego at hand, while Mike and Rosie are simply looking at past events (business cycle). I think we can all say right now that ‘We Don’t Know'. I would say it’s probably in between Harley’s point and Mike and Rosie’s.
No doubt about Daves' cred, but he and Mike were caught out about old legacy economies, too say new econs subordinate old is just plain wrong. Risk is that they will be caught out again. Id rather be comfortable than slovenly
staying in the past low inflation regime will only work if we can keep suppressing the price of labor, I think it is wild to belief that we can keep suppressing wages for ever without having a revolution. This to me means the idea of us going back to low inflation is a fantasy because if it happens the government will make it un happen because it would be because companies are able to keep suppressing wages which with the current political landscape is not something that people will stand for.
Obviously recorded before todays inflation numbers eh? Inflation still kicking arse. I think we are still trying to swallow the elephant of the so call stimulus from two spendaholic presidents.
Bassman, don't be rude, let your guest finish his point first(explain his wrong call and his amended point of view). Don't interrupt, you aren't in Kindergarten anymore
God Harley is so annoying. Like, sure disagree that's fine but he never has anything to back his arguments up other than gotcha questions and personal insults
Rossie (May-16): "You could build a case that the recession's already started" C'mon man! Just quit making predictions. ua-cam.com/video/uYRqs29UsB4/v-deo.html&lc=Ugw-wcg3A7g365WvYOB4AaABAg
Mike and Rosenberg say they are economic historians, but they seem to pick and choose the history they cite. Inflation did not go straight up in the 1970’s going into the 80’s. Inflation was just high throughout the whole period. It is disingenuous to say that just because we have ticked down for 2 months now in inflation that it is no longer an issue and it is transitory, and it only lasted 16 months. Inflation is still in the mid 8’s and if it jostles around 3,4,5% for the next few years that doesn’t make it “transitory” because it didn’t go above the 9.1% we saw earlier this year.
Most underrated financial channel. I LOVE the different viewpoints and disagreements and perspectives.
Brilliant, brilliant discussion. As an avid consumer of financial content I often tire of people with opposing views being too passive and cordial in their disagreement, which then prevents many of the opposing views from being explored in enough depth. Whilst some Rosie v Harley encounters were tense, it enabled the crux of the issues to be explored in raw unfiltered terms and provided more value to the listener rather than the subtle meandering around issues we often see. Good job to Mike for the balanced moderation and good job all for the respect shown to each other at the end. I loved it! KIS is fast becoming one of the more valuable discussion forums available in yhe financial markets today. Thank you to you all.
I love Rosie. He’s so SMART. He always has reasons behind his statements. No one can debate his facts. Unfortunately, he is more often wrong than right. Having followed his advice during COVID and afterward. I missed the Bull market in stocks, then I missed the bear market in treasuries. Why does he always sound smart and still get it wrong.
His job is to sound smart, not get calls right...
When someone get so defensive and talks with so much certainty I would be cautious. He can't see his own bias and I can see my own half the time
Stick to Brent Johnson
Lots of smart people are TERRIBLE traders. The only relevant question to all of us watching -- you want to be right or you want to make money?
Like he admits.. his timing is terrible 🙄 Good listening though - thanks guys 🙏🏼
Dave debates like Peter schiff… just don’t take a breath and keep moving to the next point so a counter can never be made (regardless of right or wrong)
Peter is right on most stuff, except... politics. He doesn't get that society and gov really shape the economy and not the other way around. Dave gets how politics influence markets, but yeah same style.
"the way you guys are describing it, life is transitory" Best quote!
BEST Simplify debate ever! Love your work Gents. Learned a lot.
How does this channel not have a million subscribers yet? You have the best insights in macro and terrific hosts, keep up the great work and thank you!
David Rosenberg needs to let others talk. He is all mouth and no ears. I would like more of a debate
Anybody know where to get this "Crude Core PPI" data Rosenburg is talking about? Can't seem to find it on FRED.
Dave down 35% since Dec.......after CPI today probably close to 50%....TRASITORY!! Go Harley
"First shooting war in Europe in 40 years..."
--the Balkans has entered the chat
Mike, I always learn something when I listen to you, thank you. You demonstrate the absence of by Philips relationship going back to 1970. You suggest that the Fed is therefore misguided in raising rates and potentially, unemployment in the interest of reducing inflation on the basis of that “ relationship”. But the Fed made its policy of low rates and QE on the basis of the same curve from 209 to 2020, with some small deviations. So if it’s misguided now, was it misguided then? And if so, could one construe these rate increases as a very belated “normalization”, particularly given that many market participants have criticized the Fed for blowing bubbles on the basis of that policy for a long time now.
Jennifer, thanks for watching. I have been critical of the Fed for relying on Philip’s Curve throughout. Led to errors in 1970s and overconfidence 2003-2007. Unfortunately, “two wrongs don’t make a right” and you can’t normalize in this manner. If you get lung cancer from smoking, you don’t cure it by not smoking.
Love these conversations, please keep em coming!
Thank you. Ditch digger from Wisconsin.
Rosenberg was calling deflation in Zimbabwe
Great video guys. Mike and Harley are the perfect duo. I trust Mike to stretch my brain and I'd trust Harley to stretch my wallet.
That was fantastic 👍Harley is as lovable & curmudgeon as the Fantastic Four’s ever loving blue eyes Thing. David brought the fire & back talk of the Human Torch & like Mr. Fantastic, Mike patiently observed & only intervened when appropriate. Great dialogue gentlemen 👍
how are you guys not charging for this? kudos, loved every minute of it
If you have this guy back, please let him just monologue and give a presentation, or interview him.. Listening to him repeat his points in circles, without leaving room for Harley (who I understand can be overly aggressive in debate) to get a word in edgewise, gets frustrating fast. I'm sure he's a genius but this format does him no favours.
Brilliant interview! David and Harley showing us all how to debate with class
Yes
...Although Bassman comes in quite aggressive - looks like there's some history there!
Awesome video guys. Thank you!
Mike and Rosenberg say they are economic historians, but they seem to pick and choose the history they cite. Inflation did not go straight up in the 1970’s going into the 80’s. Inflation was just high throughout the whole period. It is disingenuous to say that just because we have ticked down for 2 months now in inflation that it is no longer an issue and it is transitory, and it only lasted 16 months. Inflation is still in the mid 8’s and if it jostles around 3,4,5% for the next few years that doesn’t make it “transitory” because it didn’t go above the 9.1% we saw earlier this year.
Good stuff. A real debate
“The futures market are all wrong!”
2 year hits 4%.
Harley is the boss, always been.
Dave: "working moms are now at a record high, that's encouraging."
Ummm, okay. I guess we have different ideas about the metrics that a healthy society should show.
A lovely and lively debate, otherwise!
Good chat, I actually agreed with Harley the most about Powell’s ego at hand, while Mike and Rosie are simply looking at past events (business cycle). I think we can all say right now that ‘We Don’t Know'. I would say it’s probably in between Harley’s point and Mike and Rosie’s.
Rosenberg didnt even stop to snort a line, impressive
I watch every video. I love you so much men.
Tell me again how much oik is missing in the strategic oil reserve? Won't oil go when us will start filling that up again?
I wonder what Rosenberg is saying about raising rates today 9/13 after this mornings CPI print
No doubt about Daves' cred, but he and Mike were caught out about old legacy economies, too say new econs subordinate old is just plain wrong. Risk is that they will be caught out again. Id rather be comfortable than slovenly
Today's CPI report doesn't seem to jive with Rosen's predictions
It does if you look beyond the headline numbers
Sometimes I like Harley. Sometimes he's got all the charm of an open grave. Today he seems to have all the charm of an open grave.
Love Dave!
If only someone would be an Andrew Melon and return us to reality, self-determination, and freedom.
staying in the past low inflation regime will only work if we can keep suppressing the price of labor, I think it is wild to belief that we can keep suppressing wages for ever without having a revolution. This to me means the idea of us going back to low inflation is a fantasy because if it happens the government will make it un happen because it would be because companies are able to keep suppressing wages which with the current political landscape is not something that people will stand for.
Rosy is a petty lil man.
David has been so wrong on bonds that it is funny. He just wants to sell you bonds. He is always seeing a recession. ALWAYS
Harley just throws cheap shots when back in a corner and he has no argument.
Meteor Strike ? 1 hour 5mins
Savers rebel: Buy TLT, buy gold, lie flat.
Stepping all over each other and not giving the other party room to respond is NOT A DEBATE!!!! This was the worst of the Simplify pCasts to date.
Let your guest talk, dude! We tune in for Dave!
Public Policy Good
Obviously recorded before todays inflation numbers eh? Inflation still kicking arse. I think we are still trying to swallow the elephant of the so call stimulus from two spendaholic presidents.
Stagflation. Higher rates, higher prices, Rosie has been wrong ( very wrong ) on interest rates. He seems unable to admit it.
A 25 minute opening monologue - without discussion (when you have 3 brilliant minds) is a bit annoying.
Bassman, don't be rude, let your guest finish his point first(explain his wrong call and his amended point of view). Don't interrupt, you aren't in Kindergarten anymore
God Harley is so annoying. Like, sure disagree that's fine but he never has anything to back his arguments up other than gotcha questions and personal insults
Scary how Putin explains inflation better than these guys...
Rossie (May-16): "You could build a case that the recession's already started" C'mon man! Just quit making predictions.
ua-cam.com/video/uYRqs29UsB4/v-deo.html&lc=Ugw-wcg3A7g365WvYOB4AaABAg
Mike and Rosenberg say they are economic historians, but they seem to pick and choose the history they cite. Inflation did not go straight up in the 1970’s going into the 80’s. Inflation was just high throughout the whole period. It is disingenuous to say that just because we have ticked down for 2 months now in inflation that it is no longer an issue and it is transitory, and it only lasted 16 months. Inflation is still in the mid 8’s and if it jostles around 3,4,5% for the next few years that doesn’t make it “transitory” because it didn’t go above the 9.1% we saw earlier this year.
100% Agree
Absolute delusional and clown level take by rosenburg
There's a reason he sells newsletters for a living