NERD ALERT: A Deep Dive Into Sumo Schedules
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 лют 2025
- This is definitely one of those videos where the powers that be can make me look like a complete dumbass in the very near future. But the data is what it is up to this point, and besides, it would be far from the dumbest I've ever looked.
Music: "Algorithm" & "Dance Dubber" by Jason Shaw (audionautix.com).
--------
Play Road to Yokozuna!: / discord
Nothing on this channel would exist without many of the existing creators of sumo content on UA-cam. Show them some support:
The streamers:
Natto Sumo: [REDACTED]
Kintamayama: rumble.com/use...
Sunday Morning Sumo Show: www.youtube.co... (Join the discord to see older streams)
Others doing good work:
Chris Sumo: / @chrissumo69
Sumostew: / sumostew
Jason's Some-Sumo Channel: / @sumojason
Don Don: / dondonsumo
World of Sumo: / @worldofsumo
Leo Dickinson: / @leodickinsonsumo
Sarah Likes Sumo: / @sarahlikessumo7792
Sumo Kaboom: / @sumokaboom - Спорт
Company meeting with statistics: I sleep
UA-cam vid with basho statistics: straight up fire, yo
Nerd alert was made
To nerd alert we respond
Raise your gunbais brothers
NERD ALERT : HERE WE COME !
Men, that was super interesting!!!
As a biologist that don't like numbers very much, I'm obligated to understand statistics in scientific papers, so, although it was clear to me, I wish I could do static calculation to present another way of seeing the data.
About the way the matches as chosen, as you said in the end of the video, both have they pros and cons. I THINK I would like to see lower rank difference as priority because it would make rank ups and downs more interesting, but perhaps It make easier to a low rank maegashira wins a yusho? Well, I'm excited for the next nerdy number video after next basho.
I like the idea of matchmaking that results in getting a better idea of how good wrestlers actually *are* - this tournament. Some of the “gimme” matches that ended up preserving people seem ridiculously lopsided.
I really appreciate this video. I've been a sumo fan for a couple years and have always wondered how these matchups were made and never had much success in getting answers. I knew it wasn't a swiss format like they do in chess tournaments and it was clear the 2 weeks of matches weren't set ahead of time but I could never figure out how and who decided who meets who and when. Thank you so much for providing a little clarity
Love me some spiffy deep dive into sumo stats
i love these kinds of videos, thank spiffy!
You showed me how deep can we dive into the nerd cave. Bellissimo👌!
i love statistics in school and do it for fun, but I had to repeat some portions here just to believe i understood it 😂😂
As usual a great analysis and very interesting, not sure how I would prefer it to go, i think you make a pretty good arguments for both main ways. Too bad for Tobizaru though, he should have been 8-7 not 7-8. Good thing for the Association it didn't have much of an effect on Kotzakura, if that one match had made the difference for him that match would have gotten a lot more side eye than it did.
I always made fun of my friends for nerding out over baseball and basketball stats….what have i become
You have become what you were always meant to be. In fact, sumo's niche place in international sports has elevated you over your peers. Accept this destiny.
I would love to see a match up in a true tournament style like in the lower divisions instead of this weird ranking competition with unpredictable twists at the end. Will never happen tho
They do have tournament-style competitions between bashos sometimes. I don't know the schedule on them, but I think it's usually sixteen top-division guys in a one-day bracket.
@@sumospiffysbarandgrill Thanks, that sounds fun. Maybe I'll catch it one day after all 👍
I was also watching these Basho and thinking why are some matches so big a gap between the wrestlers, but never thought of digging through more than a years worth of past Basho to find a trend. You sir, I salute you. you answered so many questions I had, but brought up a few I did not even think about.
I really dislike when the committee pits two 7-7 against each other regardless of the rank gap. I like a more firm structure, to give wrestlers a fair chance to reach kachi-koshi.
But I do understand when a lower Mega-15 or lower goes 8-0, he would be destine to win the Basho unless he is pitted against tougher opponents. I do believe this happens when a newer wrestler enters the top tier for the first time, and shocks everyone with similar rank. which Takerufuji and Onosato did when they entered Makuuchi division for the first time.
The way Takerufuji and Onosato were scheduled recently is quite a bit different from how Tokushoryu, for example, was scheduled when he won from M17w in 2020 (so not *that* long ago). Tokushoryu only got paired against high-performing guys starting in day 12, and even then those opponents were M11w and M9w on days 12 and 13 before getting M4w Shodai (the other tournament leader) on day 14 and ozeki Takakeisho for his last match. It seems like the committee sees the parity and is really trying to force lower-ranked wrestlers to prove they deserve a title. Takerufuji just happened to pull it off.
Personally I think the final week should be matched by results.
thank you
Neeeerddd!
Love it
Generally, I like the way that the schedules are on paper.
That is schedules based on rank up to day 11/12 and then based on winning record for the last 3/4 days.
However, you must reserve bouts between yusho contenders on the last 3 days of the basho to make this work.
And in the last basho, they did not consider this and were fixated on bouts between rank too much imo.
Kirishima vs Onosato -day10
Takerufuji vs Chiyoshoma -day12
Both the above were too early for title deciders and should have been held back till much later imo.
Nagoya 2023 won by Hoshoryu was a great example of holding back bouts till the last 2 or 3 days which made the basho much more exciting imo.
And by holding back bouts, they can make bouts between wrestlers with the same winning record much easier.
The scheduling is good on paper but not thinking more clearly on the importance of better bouts for the final weekend of the basho is disappointing.
Great video 👍...
It’d be interesting to see if there’s a correlation between the joi’s performance and the length of the jungyo.
I have been watching sumo since March and it seems to me (and this is a subjectie feeling) that Sumo is in a kind of demographic change left by Hakuho's vacuum, and with guys like Waka and Kirishima (and a total freak talent in Onosato) ranked low and being on a comeback run, maybe the schedule had to just adapt. And in addition to similar ranked or similar scoring match-ups, you want newcomers comaperd, veterans compared and newbies vs. veterans. And it might level out a bit in a few months.
A second idea off the top of my head is price money. Some wrestlers appearently are very happy maximizing cash out instead of wins. I am not super familiar with the price money system so i will leave it at that, it is just something I saw people discuss.
Lastly, Sekiwake has been taunted as the hardest rank and I think this new scheduling could eliviate some of the issues. I liked the match-ups in September. I really appreciate you nerding out and doing the math but it is impossible to account for all factors that may influce the decision making of what is a council of elderly humans with all their very huma flaws, strengths and ideals. On the other hand a more subjective schedule instead of a purely robotic one is fun, plain and simple.
You breakdown was incredible. Your videos help me to bridge the time between tournaments while also hyping me up. I cherish each video you du.
I'm glad you liked the video! Question: what part of prize money are you referring to? There are multiple ways that can be taken-the kensho envelopes for winners, or the add-on money guys get throughout their careers for good records.
I haven't had time to look into it more. On whim I would say people were referring to the kensho, but is is a total guess. Sorry for not being more helpful atm
Nerd Alert!
Hello! I am a bit newer to your videos so I apologize if this is intended. But your on-screen text edits (though very funny) make me have to pause and rewind every time to see what you said. And maybe that's intentional but I find it off-putting and distracting. I do appreciate you getting to points quickly and your overall knowledge and ability to explain things to others, and honestly your humor seems entertaining too. If you don't mind me saying I think you could find less annoying ways to add your humor. Just some (hopefully) helpful advice from someone you didn't ask.
Sometimes, especially with the jokes, the quick flash is the point. I know it's not for everyone, but I am doing it on purpose. For this video, some of the stat stuff just didn't make sense to keep on-screen for as long as it would have taken to make sure everyone could read it without pausing, which is why I put the disclaimer at the start. (And yeah, that was on and off quickly as part of the joke.) It's not super-common, though, so please stick around and I think you'll be cool with most of the videos we make here.
@@sumospiffysbarandgrill i definitely will!
I find it hilarious personally
Well in all honesty, guys that are close to your rankings should be considered in your league and thus should be great fit for the schedule. If you match records, some of them are covering entirely different situations, 7-7 at M1 is NOT the same as 7-7 at M10 or 12 at all, you basically had no common ground and just a few rikishi who fought the 2 guys, which is clearly weird at the end of the day. On top of that, matching guys with poor records together is basically cushioning them, since one of the two will get an easier win at the end. I think they want to make the sanyaku great again and avoid elevator mouvement in the sanyaku, which has been an issue for the past 2-3 years.
The word has come down from Abe, MAKE THE SANYAKU GREAT AGAIN.
You have read freakonomics
hey bro quick question are the new rankings out?
Not yet. They come out at 6 am Japan time on Monday, Oct. 29th, so for most of the world it'll be at some time on Sunday the 28th.
nice video nerd
I wish you would talk at a more measured and thoughtful pace even if it makes the vids longer. It’s pretty stressful trying to follow along and integrate all the information you are dropping. Why would I click on something that stresses me out when there are more options than I even have time to watch.
I don't want to stress people out, but this is how I like to record and make the videos. It may not be for you. That's OK.