The Death of Globalization!
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
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The three-decade era of globalization risks going into reverse according to company executives and investors. In this video we look at the economic evidence in a paper called Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? by Pinelopi Goldberg of Yale University and Tristan Reed of The World Bank.
Here is a link to the full paper: www.nber.org/p...
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Interest rates are going much higher. BRICS will be the scape goat. While OPEC is doing deals with BRICS to build oil pipelines and refineries, North America and Europe are going Green, gangrene. BRICS or 70% of human population isn't going Green. So OPEC is going with BRICS and the BRI while NATO destroys itself under the weight of unserviceable debt and will blame BRICS for going off the US Petro dollar. No high speed rails in the US, only train derailments.
I’m used to dry humour, but the idea that someone could listen to an audiobook on the Tube is… :chef's kiss:
Patrick, do you own an investment company? In a blink id invest with you
are economists low iq or psychopathic? or is it the combination of the two that leads to a sum greater than its parts?
@@bertilhatt China and Russia have killed Globalization
Patrick. Thanks for not being overhyping or one sided. Your format of “Here’s something that might happen. Here’s why it might not. Here’s something that might happen. Here’s why it might not” is better than any large news agency, bar none.
Did you not see the title of the video? LMFAO.
@@bklklklklkl Yeah but did you not watch the video? LMFAO
@@bklklklklkl google “irony”
It’s a concept you should try to learn.
yes! he's awesome and humble and seemingly objective all at the same time
@@bklklklklkl Titles are there to grab attention. More so on UA-cam. I hope you don't claim to have read a book because you have read the title.
One thing I like about this video is that you actually gave a summarising statement at the end which succinctly covered the main point from the video. I see so many UA-cam videos where the video just ends and it feels abrupt.
I think Peter Zeihan's "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning" presents a pretty comprehensive explanation as to why globalisation is ending. It also takes geopolitics and demographics into account, not just economics
Yep, I really like Peter Zeihan's daily videos. I enjoy his insight on Russia and China. When people talk about China invading Taiwan, I like to quote him, "You can walk from Moscow to Kiev, you can't walk from Beijing to Taipei". And NO, this is not one of those spam chains of comments about someone who does stock picks. Zeihan does not recommend stocks, ever.
I like Peter also. I've lived through globalization's birth and now its retreat. I did a lot of research hoping to prove to myself that deglobalization wasn't happening. I couldn't. My grandchildren aren't going to enjoy the benefits I had by growing up in a more peaceful world. I've been following China for decades. It's collapsing - possibly more slowly than Peter believes (I hope), but for the umpteenth time in China's history, it may go through the same cycle of splitting apart into a few warring pieces, civil war and famine. Big difference this time is that at least one of those mini-Chinas will have nukes. Imagine Mao with nukes. Chills...
Thank you for this comprehensive look at deglobalization. I've been trying to wrap my head around its possible consequences, and this video really helped to get informed on the topic.
I think the deglobalization has begun. So far the globalization is actually western dominated globalization, and what’s happening is a switch from western centric to real ‘global’ centric where most countries would befit rather than a bounce of western countries.
God bless you! Someone who understands the things for what they really are. 👏🏽
Good point. Just because the US has an unhappy population due to lost jobs, and Europe is facing security risks, does not mean it’s the same situation for every country.
As long as capital can flow across borders it will search out the best returns. There are many opportunities for growth and development across the globe, and countries such as Vietnam and Rwanda are grabbing the opportunity. There are many stories of increasing globalisation to be told.
Please explain what you meant by "So far the globalization is actually western dominated globalization". What happened to the economy of countries like Japan, S Korea, multiple SE Asian countries, PROC, ROC for past few decades?
@@my_pronoun_is_your_excellency I’ll try to answer it to you.
1st the richest countries have been for the past few centuries until today been mostly western. These countries are former colonial powers and industrialized more than 100 years ago. This resultated in these countries dictating how trade should be conducted, often to their favour, hence western dominated globalization. Furthermore, some of these countries are involved in neocolonial policies, which kept other geographical regions from developing. Further reason for western dominated globalization. This is the basis for a lot what shaped our world to what it is today. For example using english as the language for commerce is another example or that most major international institutions (Worldbank or IMF for example, there are of course many many more) are located in the west.
2nd The US used to be the most important market and Europe it’s most important trading partner. However, China surpassed the US as the largest market for a while now. Furthermore China is most of the other countries biggest trading partner and it’s economic might (China is called the worlds factory for a reason) makes it a force to be reckon with. China has surpassed the West on many aspects and India as well as other Asian countries are soon to follow.
3rd There is also something called an economic center of gravity, which refers to a point on the world map which shows the average location of economic activitiy. Logically the rise of China and India, but also countries (you mentioned) like Japan and the 4 “Asian Tigers” South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore as well as emerging nations mostly in South East Asia such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia & Bangladesh are all responsible for shifting the economic center of gravity further to the east.
From this you can hopefully see what is meant by western dominated.
Someone else might get into the second question “What happened to the economy of … for past few decades?”.
@@my_pronoun_is_your_excellency all Asian countries except Japan were globalized rather globalizing. They were ones received capital, technology, idealism and political systems, and exported goods to western countries. Now the trend has flipped.
Smart trade that benefits both parties is good. Bad trade is bad. Globablization has allowed for good trade and bad trade. Maybe we need to consider it as changing how we do business as a whole, rather than everyone screaming we're obliterating our economy.
Stopping global trade is like stopping the sea with your hands. Impossible as long as companies and consumers are looking for the lowest cost products and services. I have seen many trade sanctions in the last 30 some years as results of several trade wars and they all died except global trade. China has been buying ports like they're going out of style. Their port-folio has grown so much. It is as you stated, a slow down only. Awesome video.
Lol. Umm no global trade didn’t exist hardly except after the Brenton wood act when the USA government guaranteed safe trade. That time is over. Listen to Peter zeihan.
The prospect of a cold war with China exposed how vulnerable the US is and is driving this trend, not economics.
@@rogerbritus9378 the U.S.A. is already in a Cold War and a trade war with China that will last 30 years or so until one of the 2 establishes its leadership of the world. With all its internal and external economic issues, so far the USA is winning both wars. Until China has a USD equivalent, a Wall Street and a Silicon Valley, it will remain at a disadvantage in spite of its >$3 trillion foreign currency reserves of USDs and EURs.
You ignore the precarious nature much of global trade is built upon, global rules, maritime security, trust in others, a somewhat naive notion that economic relations guarantees peace. Over populated countries that aren't resource self sufficient & can't protect their trade networks, in conjunction with allies, are the most vulnerable.
@@assertivekarma1909 if you read global trade agreements carefully, you will notice that many global rules and clauses are ignored until score settling between signatory nations becomes important.
Thanks!
Your thoughts
Do more then you think
I have deep depression
due to cancer and the effects
of radiation
I can borrow down into the darkness it easily.
Your very deep and thoughtful
comments engage my thinking part of my brain, therefore stopping that spiral of darkness.
And you are funny
Thank you.
Dear Lord, Thank you for Mark and his honesty relating to his cancer. Please be with him and give him relief and rest, while he undergoes the radiation and other treatments. Let him know you are the Light of the world and that darkness runs from the light. Light of the world by England Dan and John Ford Coley is wonderful. All this I pray in the glorious name of my Savior, The Lord Jesus Christ. Peace to you Mark, you are loved, Frank
Thanks Mark! I hope you are doing ok.
Replacing "cheapest and easiest" with "safest and surest" makes sense, but a lot of green solutions to manufacturing are also safer and surer than their fossil fuel counterparts. For example, when it comes to electricity generation, coal and oil are only safe and sure if your country is an exporter of those resources, but the wind blows and the sun shines just about everywhere and nuclear doesn't need nearly as much fuel as any fossil fuel, so energy generation switching to greener sources would make most countries more secure, not less.
Speaking on outsourcing, how is illegal immigration similar to outsourcing for location dependent businesses?
Soooo.... we can't grow at the same rampant rate as during the booming shift to globalization, and therefore we are dying, is that the message?
I wonder to which extent Globalization is responsible to salaries decrease compared to inflation in US?
On the other note, why industrialization never factored in discussions about Globalization? At some point highly educated workforce combined with industrialization should create cheaper domestic products vs shipped across half the world.
I've been hearing a lot of people saying that the impacts of 2008 are coming home to roost, but with not much explanation beyond that. What does it mean?
While there may have been some movement of production to where it could be produced greener, it seems dwarfed by movement to where had less regulations on pollution.
I'm about 15 miles from the new TSCM factory here in Arizona and we are quite happy about the direction of globalization.
I'm curious how that all goes. Americans are not privvy to working in manufacturing no matter how much we pretend we want that back. Add clean room procedures, laser injuries, and repetitive tasks... What will they have to pay to staff that place?? A hypothetical solution would be refugees from war torn Taiwan. Purely hypothetical! Lol.
@@michaelearlgrey It would be cheaper to pay some of them to move.
Is Arizona a really good location?
Does it have plenty of water as that is one of the most important ingredients in chip manufacturing or was it just so happens it lined the most pockets to win the bid?
@@sko1beer another reason is possibly that they want to make a chip hub of some sort, because ASM is also around
@@JL-fz4sh its still not that hard to find a location near water.
taiwans factory uses so much water that the people are told by its government to not mop the homes with water and to keep flushing the toliets to a min
No, global trade will not come to an end. It might not even slow down meaningfully.
What will happen is less reliance on just-in-time production. Companies and countries will turn to stockpiling larger quantities of raw materials, semi-manufactored goods, and enegy supplies. It will cost some money, but that is money well spent on national resilience and security.
Great talk
RS. Canada
Looking fresh dude
If most government have a plan, they will try to accomplish it. It doesn't matter how things look, such things are just a bump in the road. Since when did anything world governments did make sense, or follow a logical trail?
Correction. Off shoring did not help keep inflation down; it helped disguise the fact that the Federal Reserve was drastically inflating the currency. So the cheaper prices made inflating the currency much easie.
As we enter a global deflationary recession it’s everyone for themselves. Rebalancing will continue.
Much more to do with the short term-ism of western corporate strategy - exploiting low labour and resource cost and reflecting an imperialist mentality of the US and cohorts. You really can’t explain globalisation in economic terms and measures, it’s only 1 element and not the most important.
Rest In Peace globalization 😅
Globalization can never be movement of goods and financial services.
I think the intent behind saying that we are seeing "the death of globalization" was not to say that the situation had already arrived but that current circumstances seem to be indicating and causing that this will be the outcome.
The analysis of the pro's and con's of globalization is very one sided and is after all what ultimately makes it unsustainable - the US and UK are now unable to manufacture and have great wealth disparity (loss of lower middle and middle class) countries where a large proportion either are emplyed by the government or relie on the government for food or income.
Globalization made a few very wealthy by taking the well paying jobs of many and handing them to others more easily satisfied.
I think the missing piece of this analysis is the connection (or at least, perceived connection) between economic globalization and political globalization. The advantage to ordinary citizens from globalization has mostly been in consumer prices, but the profit making opportunities have largely accrued to a much smaller set of establishment elites. There are interests that see the petty matters of loss of freedom and autonomy, not to mention culture, as nothing to stand in the way of countries' yielding sovereignty to those international organizations who wish to run the global economy. Public sentiment - and my own - around globalization overall is characterized by fear of unelected foreigners who are under no obligation to respect, for example, the U.S. constitution, taking decision-making control over the fundamental aspects of our lives. The only argument I've heard to allay these fears is "trust us, we know what we're doing, and it's al for your own good". Now pull the other one, it itches.
a meteor shooting to earth would globalize the world
A man can hope 🙏
The EU’s dependence on Russian energy etc. hasn‘t been taken advantage of by Russia.
The EU, foremost Germany, is being pushed into a self harming situation and into lunatic actions by the ones in charge in the US and England, who caused the disruptions and alienation over decades of NATO expansion in order to redirect Germany‘s dependence on energy towards the US, which is making huge profits on LNG and causing German companies to move manufacturing to the US due to high energy costs. While the EU follows the US‘s demands to ermbargo Russia, the US covertly keeps importing goods and raw materials from Russia. - What kind of partnership is this supposed to be ?!
There is no morale or struggle for higher values, as often claimed. It’s about causing mayhem between nations that had good mutual economic relations. How many countries has the US had bombed in the past 30 or 50 or 80 years? ....You just have to declare your murdering as an act of humanity for Peace and freedom.
If you don’t agree with me, maybe you’d be more inclined to getting the message being brought to you by
Clare Daly and Mick Wallace .
Time to start my own veggie garden, get a little farm and live of the land
I'm pro friendshoring, and increasing national security concerns for things like advanced technologies, and food, water, and energy concerns. I would like to see GHG emissions also internalized in offshored production somehow. But in general I have no problem with Paraguay or Cambodia producing parts and subassemblies and textiles, that is until their actively trying to destabilize western democracy , commiting genocide with their borders, or maliciously invading sovereign nations.
CBDCs is the topic I'm looking forward to
As far as trade into developed nations, decreasing populations - the consumers of trade goods, is gradually playing a part. If the demand is lower because there are fewer consumers - or at least the rate of consumer growth is declining as birth rates drop - it should probably be expected that the amount any nation consumes is going to be impacted as well.
Added to that a small, but definite increase in ecological concerns, especially in food where vegetarianism and veganism, while still relatively small, has grown 8 fold in the last 30 years. Meaning the typical 10-1 calorie swap (90% calorie loss) that producing meat entails is being whittled down slowly
Average cow bred for meat slaughtered on day 560 of its life has used just over 10 million calories of food to raise - and provides 1 million calories in return - and that 10-1 swap assumes perfect growth and perfect rendering and consumption of everything on the cow that provides calories including bone marrow, intestines, brain and nervous system and even most of its hide/leather.
That means the vast swathes of land used to produce feed for animals bred for meat can be put to other uses. Recycling in general has not had anything like the impact we were lead to believe it would - but it is having some. Again this adds another slight downward pressure on the need for imported consumer goods of all types.
A big part of the ecological message is use less, recycle, pass down and repurpose. While the impact of this is only a fraction of what we were told, it is still having an impact that is measurable.
11:50 or the world is coming to the point of pareto efficient trade and the trend continues sideways from here.
I thought I was in a infomercial. Had to go.
Wow that website link looks great. I can pay to find out how horrible humanity is in exaggerated stories with news all the time . Imagine the level of cynicism and depression this opens up. Gotta get it right away to avoid the criticism optimism may bring. Does it come with a Doom and Gloom Tshirt?
Announcer summed it up when he said..."the turd phase of the..".
I've been saying that if you had stuff made in america, the made in china meme would reverse. Negativity bias has most convinced anything poorly made is chinese.
Roger & Me 1989 and don't forget this one either, In the second 1992 Presidential Debate, Ross Perot argued: "We have got to stop sending jobs overseas. It's pretty simple: If you're paying $12, $13, $14 an hour for factory workers and you can move your factory South of the border, pay a dollar an hour for labor, ... have no health care-that's the most expensive single element in making a car- have no environmental controls, no pollution controls and no retirement, and you don't care about anything but making money, there will be a giant sucking sound going south." Who is surprised by this????
Al gore and Bill Clinton were surprised by this.
the key is healthcare for all. Canada can compete with US because the have lower healthcare cost so the company cost for manpower is lower even if they are paying the same salary
@@jamesdoe5804 Which is why American jobs are outsourced to Canada. /s
@@Jim-Tuner surprised or just following orders?
@@jamesdoe5804 Canada seemingly outsources its entire medical profession to the US. So it kind of balances out.
22:20 "In complex areas like economics and geopolitics, there are no easy answers. There are too many moving parts, too many unknowns, and too many pros and cons whose merits can’t be easily weighed. There will never be a perfect answer and for that reason there is always a swing back and forth as different ideas are expressed."
Love this closing thought
realism has entered the chat
When i hear simple solutions to complicated problems, it sugests to me that, whoever is sugesting that for whatever reason, doesn't fully understand the problem. This is a great BS detector.
Hahaha... this statement and the replies to it are the thinking of testosterone-lacking, conflict-averse yuppies.
Yes, solutions that precisely land on the centroid of MANY peoples' inputs and objectives in a technically-ideal fashion ARE 'complex'...
...But in the real world, most problems - being that they're caused by humans, who all fall into a predictable distribution curve - have LARGE 'chunks' of the same cause. Around ~80% of all problems almost ALWAYS come down to... 1) Nonengagement / Noncooperation of the interested parties, 2) Mismanagement, and thus 3) the Corruption and Grift that result from it.
Every successful project tackles these issues FIRST.... OR makes a team so small, led by such a strong 'leader', that they are all eliminated as a problem, and the team is able to spend its time tacking the technical issues.
Everything is falling apart because your average woggin (such as you three) have been trained since childhood to never lay down hard lines, never have any passion about anything, never take charge, and never 'judge' others (which has created the perfect breeding ground for liars and con-men to thrive, who in turn prevent any progress from being made on anything).
I always laugh reading comments on news articles from common people saying things, like We have already de coupled with China, lol. Like it happens that quickly like it's a sports match or something and the US just made a play or something. It's obvious there is a political idea to de couple with China, but trade between the two nations is at a all time high. It's more like the media is lying to the public, and rather than being honest on why prices are so expensive for average customers due to the tariff war. They are keeping the tariffs and keeping the idea on why the trade war is great. The governments are literally making extra money from tariffs and don't want to give it up. They used inflation as a cover on why prices are also so high.
Thats why central planning cannot work. Eight billion people making decisions by the second is just too many variables.
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Like so many things, international trade is good in moderation, but can become toxic if used irresponsibly
Agreed but it will always remain for things that can't be done domestically.
The elephant in the room, however, is that trade is always political, and from the very beginning of globalisation there have been big international actors who exercise their political power through trade. To argue that internal trade *can* be done responsibly presupposes that there are not already dominant actors who militate against this very thing. So yeah we can take the moderate "let's all get along guys" attitude or we can reject the system in its entirety, and indeed we must since those with the most power in the system have become almost impossible to restrain within that system.
@@gymonstarfunkle136yes, China uses the Australian exports as a way to change our policy without being elected officials
A masterclass in definitive "click bait" titling followed up by basically a solidly probabilistic and contingent argument. Good video.
Globalization is a recycled term as Patrick mentioned. Literally the same term used prior to the panic 1873 and again during the 1920's leading to the 1929 bust.
Other terms used have been colonialism. And such colonialism goes back further than the triangle trade of the 1600 and 1700's.
But you can go back to even prior to antiquity of Greece and later Rome. Going back to classical era of Greek city states culminating in doom for various empires in the great bronze age collapse.
Essentially, it almost always included slavery or a form of feudal like structures. Very few actually benefited from it directly or even indirectly. And such economies always boom and fell apart in a great bust.
The term is too gity without looking at the fundamental problems; generally it uses exploited labors either slave, feudal peasantry, or a tyrannized repressive dictator or oligarchy of some sort or another that gives way to what I've coined inauthentic comparative advantage. Lots of other subsidies also come into play as well; where producers receive tax money to offset costs for other inputs beyond labor costs. As well as operating costs like shipping and inventory; distribution costs often get a hefty subsidy by the taxes of the nation.
So the costs are not actually lower, but subsidized by desperate, suppressed, enslaved, and tax funded other non-labor inputs and distribution.
The quality is worse, but the price is more attractive and floods the market forcing better expertise quality makers to go bust. Price wars we see with oligopolies and monopolies.
And in the end you have a late stage where only a few getting the benefits.
Supply chains get idiotic as pretzel like zig zag of various stages of goods making require even further fuels to move the inputs and sub assemblies and final assemblies then various retail.
All this sourcing from all over the place takes more energy which costs more. But this excess cost, yet again, gets offset by either direct subsidies for those purposes of transportation and/or by the other subsidies of inputs via tax money and suppressed labor wages; that the extra cost on energy is offset by the low or no wages being paid and the inputs being mostly paid by the colonial country.
And often these pretzel like supply chains lead to a collapse along with the fact it leaves very few able to consume the goods and services because everyone falls in wage/salaries toward the suppressed labor; aggregate demand falls. It's probably why hyper inflation didn't immediately come out of the massive QE that was being done by many countries after the 2010's following the bank bust and massive bail out to the financial sector. Wages stayed low, and businesses were very scared to grow very much knowing that very few, the top 20% were really left being able to purchase the vast majority of the goods and services being supplied to the market.
Between the inefficient supply chain that becomes fragile when ultimately resentment takes place and war happens, financial disasters take place as the top 20% can't hold an economy together with massive suppression toward the bottom 80%, and often to placate the 80% in less suppressive nations, these countries often under go wars of conquest or civil war.
And it all falls apart.
It's moronic.
Trade is good.
But label all trade as good is dumb.
Some trade is bad.
Authentic comparative advantage is a key to figure out what type of trade is good, and which type is actually harmful over time.
If the country in question has more of resource than other countries, it's a good trade. An authentic comparative advantage.
If a country has expertise that's better than another, than its a good trade.
Actual quality and or abundance of good or service.
If it's forced via slave labor or otherwise suppressed labor or gigantic subsidies this constitutes an inauthentic comparative advantage that will put those with better expertise out of business lowering quality, as well as driving supply chains into idiot spaghetti, and all nations fall in equilibrium as aggregate demand falls. The remaining 20% or the top 10% simply don't need 1 billion toasters or 1 billion ovens or 1 billion massaches etc. Instead you're left with great resentment among the less suppressed nations, and even of the tyrannical nations, they tend to realize the gigs up and start abandoning the late stage colonialism/globalism; which becomes very dangerous as supply chains are all over the place due to the inauthentic comparative advantage described.
It's idiotic.
Since recorded history, over and over, this type of bad trade keeps popping up, because it does give a quick boost to economic boom. But it always goes bust because it's unsustainable. It only really helps the top 20%, and eventually maybe only the top 10%... until it helps nobody.
Do you have any resources you'd point to or recommend to read more from this perspective?
Who are the "people" who ruin these states then implement it elsewhere for their own benefit? The bergs in places of power maybe.
I always enjoy your videos, Patrick, even the ones where my eyes glaze over!
Please play from your phone, rested at the base of a tree, somewhere off in the near distance.
please play despacito.
I think that means you too are almost dead. I feel it mate me too.
He's like that aloof cousin or uncle whom you seldom ever meet save for weddings or large family gatherings, and you always enjoy his company seeing as he does most of the talking given that a circle of listeners surround him at all times, and he usually welcomes more listeners with his kindly stare and nods of acknowledgment as they curiously skirt the perimeter of his group of eager listeners.
@@bhante1345 China and Russia have killed Globalization
UA-cam algorithm, Patrick should be at 1 million subscribers.
Great video, Patrick. I would add two thoughts to it.
1. Change in trade of semiconductors, commodities and high-value-added technology may not be reflected in statistics but has more “weight” to many other products. Thus, a more detailed analysis may be required
2. Building factories, training people and restructuring the supply chain will take many years. A slow start may be misleading.
semiconductors are not a pair of shoes to jump factories, there are big reasons why it's concentrated in workaholic/low human rights/cheap labor while high education demand places of the world and why it's easy to fail at.
Slow and steady wins the race :)
@@memespeech
None of those are actually factors. The reason semiconductors are made where they are is due to the supply chains and access to an educated workforce. In fact, the US scores very low in education metrics. if you need a skilled workforce (as you do for semiconductors), the US is proving to be one of the worst places to find it.
This lack of skilled labour can be seen in Boeing's QA problems when expanding their factories, and the QA issues in US made Teslas vs EU or Chinese Teslas.
The US has attracted some of the brightest people on the planet because it's the richest, but the moment an industry approaches mass production, the quality of workers falls off a cliff.
If you get a minute, would you please expand on, "more detailed analysis may be required" ? Planned obsolescence is super fake. That term is just a symptom of top down to trash production. None of the production is checked or evaluated per run. There is no quality control. If any of this production is brought back into the mainland US, we would have checks like ISO or IPC. Anything that gets UL Listed has lots of rejects because the quality is super bad.
@@anivicuno9473 I'm not sure that is true,. The US is in the top 3 for almost any sort of high tech manufacturing. Because quality control and a skilled workforce are absolutely available! Do you think Intel is investing all that money into US factories because they have doubts they can find enough skilled workers? And a shocking number of highly automated factories are being built in the US right now. Because skilled mechanics, machinists, roboticists and more are readily available here. Try to find them in Sudan. Or most of the world.
You say "the moment an industry approaches mass production, the quality of workers falls off a cliff" but the US makes millions of cars every year. We are the #1 producer of heavy farm equipment. We are rapidly becoming the #1 (or at least #2) producer of wind turbines and solar cells. We mass produce quite a few things and we do it with massive efficiency per man hour.
You can cherry pick examples like Boeing, but that doesn't mean the skills and tech are not here. And regarding Tesla, I actually know a few people who work for Tesla, and the working conditions are such that the skilled people don't want to stick around. Maybe if they joined the UAW and allowed Union representation they would get UAW level quality of work for UAW level of pay and benefits. It's a MANAGEMENT issue, not a SKILL issue.
We have a saying where I live, “Sunday one day, Monday the next.”.
Is there a sponsored drinking game for Credit Suisse mentions?
I'd describe what's currently happening as the beginning of a long-term trend towards diversification of globalization, as a risk management strategy.
@benjamin bessette what he is saying is that countries are trying to avoid globalization to preserve their economies from global supply chain disruptions. Example: if china is unable to make iPhones you would not be bothered because your country also makes iPhones. Let’s say that iPhone is food, cars, computers, petroleum, etc.
@benjamin bessette yes. The US is trying to produce more of their own semiconductors for instance.
Globalization will never truly go away. There may be lower points of globalization, but it won't ever truly disappear.
Wrong
Who knows. As Einstein said "I dunno what WW III will be fought with but I do know WW IV will be fought with sticks"
@@benren7305 Nah.
@@benren7305I disagree…how we think of globalization will change meaning restructure. It’ll never go away as long as you have humans you will always have people willing to subjugate others that share the same ethnic make-up, culture, phenotypes…and willingness to subjugate the people that don’t through force. It’s a mix of global, geographical, and localized regions…they will merely shuffle indefinitely based on trade-offs “pros vs cons.” From human history and “civilization” empires have always stayed localized as well as extended far beyond their borders “regionally” huge reason why speciation has a very low probability of occurring within homo-sapiens we love to go around Fing with other people as well as sexy sexy time…
@@annnee6818I do agree with Einstein on that, but to add more to what he said…it cycles back around and repeats itself all over again. “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme,” you’ve probably heard that quote before. Looking at the overall events of documented human history, civilizations always seem to follow a very nasty cyclic model…kind of makes me ponder…that fatty fleshy goop of a meat sack in-between our skulls has a huge limiter hardwired and programmed within our DNA to be just what we are…humans tied to this planet, and not independent nor anymore special than any creature on it. 😂 that may upset some people that believe “we’re special,” but in actuality we’re rather mundane.
My self-esteem is highly improved when I tell people I listen to Patrick Boyle
Showing off huh…do you know who I listen to? The Nobel prize laureate Paul Krugman and the most widely cited social scientist who’s still alive Noam Chomsky. Try beating that. Ha
@@teddybearroosevelt1847
The sad thing about your comment, is you are probably serious
Talk of reshoring, friendshoring, onshoring, ect. As an engineer with 12 years of experience working directly with manufacturing I can say this:
Talk is cheap. There is no manufacturing boom in the US.
Could it happen though? And if so, under what conditions? These are all talks about expectations not present state.
@@gyroscopejones9217 No, a manufacturing rennasiance cannot occur in the US as long as the dollar retains its place as the world's reserve currency. Very bluntly, it is much cheaper to buy imported goods from abroad than make them yourself when all you have to do is buy them with greenbacks you can print at will.
@@ericlefevre7741 I mean..... for now.....
I would look again. Technology makes printing products at scale profitable.
Also see Northern Mexico as integrated into the Southern US.
The town in Australia I was born in was plunged into poverty and despair by globalisation when an American company bought out the tool works that employed 800 people closed it down and and opened up in China. It is now one of the poorest local government areas in the country. Sure was a "win win" for everybody.
Liars burn in hell
All that highlights is that australia somehow can't be arsed to implement effective worker retraining programs or social safety nets.
Globalisation just exposes the weakenesses present in ineffective governments. Global trade is win-win on a macroeconomic, society scale. Of course the wins aren't universal, and some groups lose out, like weavers did during mechanization.
@@anivicuno9473 Shut up
@@anivicuno9473 no not universal wins in this case.
@@anivicuno9473 I think you are discounting purchasing power parity(ppp). For example India’s ppp is 5.1 when compared to us. Now to get workers you can pay 1/5 times and still get things done. The opex of the companies will drastically reduce, that is the reason things get skewed. Now this cannot be handled by any govt imho.
Patrick, your videos are always informative and fact driven but you really hit it out of the park on this one. Your rational, fact-based videos are at the top of my list for general economic reporting. Thank you for everything you do!
"Trade increased countries resilience during the pandemic." Everyone remembers the miles and miles of backed up ships, sitting offshore, doing nothing. The empty shelves, high prices, and resultant panic buying of staples. The electronics shortage with follow-on effect in other markets (like automobiles). That was caused by the *ceasing* of reliable international trade. It exposed the fragility and untrustworthiness of complex global systems of production and distribution that rely on predictably good conditions. If that system is interrupted, a lot failed because there were no other closer or domestic options.
Good points. This is the weakness of globalization. The trend away from mercantilism (domestic production) and toward globalization/outsourcing lasted about fifty or sixty years. At this point, the love affair with globalization has run its course.
and now theres no ships sitting idle, shelves are full, and prices higher than ever 🤣🤣🤣
@MrPaxio transfer of wealth already happened.
People (at least in America) are too laiden with debt to make collective decisions about it sadly.
@@DaBlaccGhost Yes, debt slavery is the goal of government.
All problems caused by government.
Yeah pandemics was quite the wake up call and a disaster for going all in on it without a backup.
Globe sisters... we lost. It's time to embrace our new Flat overlords.
Globalization involves much more than trade. The backlash against the growth of international regulation arising from trading nations like Europe increasing their dominance by legislating extreme requirements for "environmental" compliance in manufactured items. European nations like Germany influence the UN and other international agencies to promote conventions that force other nations to comply with US and Europe's extreme and often absurd requirements. Does a tractor driven in Australia have to comply with environmental restrictions relevant to Germany. Yes, despite their being absurd these expensive, unreliable and unwanted European restrictions are applied universally throughout the Western World. This killed manufacturing in other nations and often forced manufacturers of many machines and equipment out of business.
The manipulation of globalization for the benefit of Europe and the USA is the real problem area.
The time has come for other nations to opt out of the ever tightening noose of Euro/US demands and regulation.
Really? Because many in the West take entirely the opposite point of view, seeing many blue and white collar jobs being off shored, to "wherever the rice grows cheapest" And surely a tractor driven in Australia has to comply with Australian regulations, how would the EU be able to dictate regulations to other countries? How can a regulation be unreliable?
couldnt agree more with this take
@@knightsnight5929 I don't really agree too hard with the first post. But the EU does have a lot of sway because their market is so large that if you want to make money you need to follow their regulations no matter how nonsensical it is. Because making two products for different regions makes no sense companies will default to the highest regulation between the nations they sell within. Which tends to be the EU regulating stuff that adds more pollution by causing you to need to toss your computers out faster and the likes.
Globalism, die?
Would that we could be that lucky.
I work in the service industry, servicing household name franchises across the country. The logistics chains are struggling still.
Most of the vendors we use barely answer the phone, and rarely have decent stock.
Your videos are super entertaining and concise. I'm just a peon, but I still like to keep up with what's happening in our world..
Thanks 👍
the black friday cut scene got me good as always lol. Thanks for your videos, your reading list and general book recommendations single-handedly got me into finance and economics :)
When you say global supply chain interruptions, do you mean government mandated lockdowns?
Russia did not stop providing gas and oil to Europe if you recall. Europe refused to import it from Russia like a toddler throwing a fit and threatening to cut off its nose to spite the face. Then the US blew up the Nordstream to make sure Europe does not change its mind.
Perhaps he was referring to the “maintenance” Russia had to complete before they would agree to restore full gas delivery to EU countries. They had a fit over some machinery that was being held in Canada, but, even after receiving said machinery, still stalled and refused to provide gas. They did it to themselves. Unless you are Russian. Then, of course, it is everyone else’s fault.
@@joycelynnelobert8779 Russia was using the turbine maintenance for political leverage, reducing the amount of gas (understandably) as the Satanic West ramped-up their open proxy war against Russia, but Russia never fully cut off the supply. And it was the CIA who blew up the Nordstream pipelines to force Germany to sever all economic relations with Russia. With friends like the US, who the fvck needs enemies.
Russia blew up NS so it was able to cut Europe from gas, as it threatened, but without paying penalty for breach of contract.
globalization and multiculturalism go hand in hand,. as globalism ends nationalism will rise.
And what chaos will ensue on the countries that have been culturally shifted. Many European countries are approaching minority status
@@GodwynDi Europe, absent of the colonies, that they had in the international trading system that now favors China, and with immigrants far more divergent than Mexican immigrants are from white Americans. Western Europe will have the worst economic crisis in their history, followed by a wave of expulsions in the fate of Europe will be dependent upon the fate of the United States. If the US goes into crisis, Europe will be able to replenish a mass of a degree, a population that was expelled if the United States remains semi-stable, or has a quick Civil War, Europe will have to deal with the consequences far worse industrial decay ‘s combined with an aging crisis.
Good.
Good. Multiculturalism is demented neoliberal BS.
@@rudysmith1552 you are just spewing dumb nationalistic propaganda and my eyes hurt after reading this
I love your Howard marks reference. A teacher should never become a drug trafficker
Such insightful and informative content. I love watching your videos on topics such as these. Here's a comment for the algorithm!
Best business economics and finance content on UA-cam bar none. So very appreciative of the incredible attention to detail and thorough research put into these videos. Been here since 100k; delighted to see your channel growing and gaining the following it so deserves. 👍🏻
Thanks Patrick for this thorough and balanced overview of the global trade issue. As the conflict between the Chinese Party State and the US National Security state grows overviews such as your data filled approach are more critical to understanding the case. Neither side favors a free flow of critical political analysis . This makes economic analysis what we have. However, such political issues as national debt, the current trade account and the currency and chip wars and the rise of Chinese power are driving much of the urge to decouple. Since divorce between China and the US is unlikely there 's a bizarre situation developing of increased trade dependence and increased distancing between the political elites of the two countries.
It's like watching conjoined twins who hate each other.
@@oldcat1790 True. They are so deep and wide that how much of this is show time beyond the reach of politicians?
China's economy is failing and it looks like there might be a revolution starting up.
@@oldcat1790you do know try and asap are both meaningless words don’t you? You try to complete your homework asap normally meant the homework isn’t done until the deadline. With no deadline set, try and asap can and probably have an infinite timeframe.
Superb analysis as usual Patrick
Go raibh maith agat a mhac
Buchal maith! Please excuse spelling.
As someone who is not part of the "global community" (North America, Europe, Japan Korea), globalization is not so fantastic, the dollar is expensive destroying the local economy, I don't earn in dollars but everything is in dollar...I'm sure that the millionaires who work with export and import is all wonderful...but for rest have to do in $1h, 13% interest, and less job opportunity's
Peter Zeihan - "The end of the world is just the beginning" is a very interesting book focused on the collapsing of globalization. Does not sound like a good time!
I listen to the book. It's going to be a great time for USA and it's about time. USA needs to stop being the world beat cop.
G0.
In fairness the person who is most impressed with the phrases of Peter Zeihan, is
Peter Zeihan himself.
Like Jim Cramer, his objective is to pump the US investment market.
@@themsmloveswar3985 well the US is in the best position globally, no country can really challenge it.
Zeihan is a US propagandist. None of his statements are factually correct
Globalization? More like privatization!
Really, globalization has been extremely "one-sided" in almost all aspects. It made the entire world into one big business, one big company, where everything was funneled to Europe and America.
Not to mention the cultural effects it also had, with now people also being funneled to Europe and America.
In both cases, the common consensus seems to be that people are entitle in AND to Europe and America. Meaning that people there are privileged and that anybody on Earth can and should just move there and become such too. Do not fix anything back at home, keep diverting the resources away, leave, leave, leave.
All these developing nations lose all their smart people who leave for first-world countries. No smart people left = Only stupid people left = Pointless conflicts.
And guess what: People from Europe and America won't be moving where others are coming from. It's not a "shuffle", it's just a hoard and abandonment of people. Immigration is one-way, one-sided and it's ruining so much of the world as nobody stays OR comes to fix jackshit. So people just leave.
Globalization was always a flawed concept, based on Francis Fukiyama's idea that the end of the Cold War meant the "end of history".
Globalization assumes that the will of the international ruling class can be imposed on nations and peoples. We expect mass unrest over the next decade because many people have seen the future being imposed on them and they don't like it.
There will always be international trade, but IF a nation is governed by patriots, it'll ensure that has a manufacturing base. That's a big IF in the US because it appears our ruling class are globalists who are more than willing to strip-mine the country if it means they can buy a bigger superyacht.
>Francis Fukiyama's idea that the end of the Cold War meant the "end of history".
Let me guess. You never read the book and have no idea what he meant by that statement
@@Poctyk well he revised his original thesis, acknowledging that challenges to liberal democracy persist.
I was about to be divorced until I told my wife that I listen to Patrick Boyle.
I can't get enough of your videos Patrick. The history of the world is colipases of old and beginnings of new systems. "Globalization" as we have been doing it over the last few decades was always going to be a profitable fad up until global labor arbitrage benefits no longer offset transportation costs and investment risk tolerance in politically unstable partners. Regional trade blocs will emerge and thrive with the largest regional economy anchoring these spheres of economic influence. The US has 2 very important neighbors who will ensure that the next fad will not crash its economy. In the North, Canada is a natural resource centric trading partner. In the South Mexico provides a very attractive local labor arbitrage partner. Eastern Europe will slowly shift the EU's Western European weighted influence with Western Europe becoming this century's Sick Man of Europe (the dependency ratio tipping points of these countries are already upon them). China and Russia will continue to shoot themselves in the foot of world diplomacy during this evolution. An EU-like union is a good possibility between Japan, Philippines, Aus/NZ and South Korea to counterbalance China if they pivot from their antagonistic current policies and attract healthy trading bloc members. India has a much better chance of success at this and has positioned themselves in a much stronger diplomatic place for it. Finally Africa and South America are up for grabs. South Africa and Brazil are the favorites but both of these countries have huge hurdles to overcome internally before they can move the needle as a regional trading giant. Gonna be fun to watch.
Why does everyone think South Africa is going to become so powerful, they are plagued with just as much instability and problems as other parts of sub-saharan Africa. They have progressively gotten poorer and poorer as time goes on, their infrastructure is collapsing, and their cohesion as a society is troubled at best. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and a few others are in much better situations imo.
Eastern Europe is literally older than Western Europe. Western Europe has immigrants, while Eastern Europe has done their best to stop them. Countries like Poland are getting old quick.
They also have the whole "final solution" problems down there. Lots of hurdles to jump.
@@macicoinc9363 it's turned into a complete shithole since the natives took charge
For the foreseeable future I don't really agree with your assessment that globalization is a 'fad' though because fads imply a lack of innate qualities or advantages. Globalization is heavily rooted in the concepts of competitive advantage and specialization and globalized economies *will* always be more productive than regional trade blocs or similar. I'm not entirely sure if globalization will ever come back but I don't doubt people will try for it again in the future.
You quantitatively validate me perceptions of what is happening. Thanks for the analysis. Love your work.
10:45 "led to strong policy actions like" Blowing up the NordStream pipelines 💣
If globalization is genuinely a good thing, it will stick around. Trade is undoubtedly good for nations. It allows for specialization & improvements of productivity, while outsourcing allows for reduction in risk. However trade also puts nations in a state of mutual reliance, which is not a favourable state even among Allied nations when differences in domestic policy start to play out. Trade without friction turns every industry into a global race to the bottom, disenfranchising existing labour while exploiting underdeveloped labour. It’s essentially all the worst parts of colonialism without the explicit racism.
It reduces nations to economic zones and people to economic units
Globalisation and trade between countries leads to mutual reliance and peace, Europe in the inter war period led to, tariffs, trade wars, distrust, nationisation, and land grabs, and finally a war, seems a little familiar now
Y'know what else globalism contributes to?
Invasive species wrecking ecosystems.
Here in the Midwest, we are having a crisis due to Asian Emerald Ash Borer beetles. We will eventually lose almost all our Ash trees in a decade😢
Oh and then there was that novel 'bug' that China exported in late 2019 that spread shockingly fast worldwide... I can only guess that didn't start WW3 because of trade reliance
lets not get ahead of our selves while globalization might have alot of the worst parts of colonialism it also has all the best ones like bringing techonoligy and food security to most of the world. From 1959 to 1961 china had a famine that killed tens of millions of people. that kind of thing simply wasnt uncommon before it was possible to import enough food for millons of people from thousands of kms away. Its impossible to calculate how many likely 100s of millions of lives have been saved by medicine and food transport being globally available which simply wouldn't have been the case without some level of colonization and later globalization. Sometimes you have to take the good with the bad unfortunately
Why strive for globalization when you can have neo-feudalism ?
I have used that powerpoint background you used for the Phases. But this is so cool.
To say that Globalization is permanently over is foolish. To say it is over or will grow is only slightly less so. We don't know what is going to happen tomorrow on a macro level. Essentially, what will dictate globalization and supply chains is how to keep the profits coming in.
They're all just gambling, it's a thought exercise and fun. You can play too. Even though no one actually knows, what do you think will happen? If you don't want to place a bet, then fine, but what do you think are some of the more likely outcomes then?
See, it's just a fun guessing game. Welcome to investing.
In 2006, China passed a labor law for overseas interests that, among other things, an employee couldn’t be fired, once hired, and their first performance reviews come after 15 years on the floor. So cheap labor, bye bye…. This is all you need to know about US/China relations.
There is one comment to be made about the immigration into Germany. While Germany has absorbed a huge amount of refugees, compared to it's size and population, only very few of those (around 20%) have been integrated into the labour market. In fact Germany has massive problems with finding workers in almost all sectors of it's economy, resulting in millions of open jobs.
Thanks for providing yet another extremely interesting and insightful analysis. When I start looking at every one of your videos, I automatically click the "like" button, because I know that I will be much more informed afterwards and would have laughed non-stop from your acerbic wit. I cannot wait for your next video. Thanks very much for enriching my life.
Hey Patrick. Just a friendly reminder to never underestimate the ability of billionaires to add dimensions to chess.
you ever play 5d chess with interdimensional time travel?
But what if you take chess and add: a duck.
@@Sapduds you’re outside of the inside joke pal
Or royally screw things up.
👍
Slow down in global trade and declining manufacturing capacity in developed world due to high cost of captial, while strong labor market with reluctant Fed does look like a stagflation to me.
I think, while this is a first rate analysis of the data to date it assumes that United States will continue to guarantee the security of global trade with our navy. What happens if it is made clear that the United States will no longer protect global trade or decides to become an aggressor in disruption of global trade.
Globalization will never end for infinite reasons, it could certainly cease for some products or decrease for others. but one way or another the world will remain interconnected. However, one thing that has already profoundly changed, which perhaps is not talked about enough, is the profound distrust between countries; in this sense, decoupling has already taken place and is constantly expanding.
Great video
I always get excited when I see you have dropped a new one
Lol. Why was Howard marks shown with a guy smoking pot..
How about safety of international shipping lines? Especially with US withdrawing from Middle East or some state actors interested in disrupting shipping. How viable shipping every nut and bolt around the planet would be, if insurance costs went up drastically?
Globalization was dependent on Europeans and the Untied States being able to buy cheap goods made by people earning less than $3/day for 10 hour day. Once we ran out of those things were going to go south.
The other thing is that "just in time" manufacturing really meant "no back up plan" manufacturing.
Make everything domestically.
(And the investor class be damned.) 🤠
What will the cost of a pair of jeans be if the people making the fabric, thread, buttons, machines, production equipment, as well as sewing the final product are all paid a fair wage and benefits? And that’s just a pair of jeans. I don’t know how comfortable people will be with cutting their consumption to a fraction of the currents levels.
@@joycelynnelobert8779 You obviously don't recognize sarcasm.
(It is the lowest form of wit. And the highest form of intelligence.) 🤠
No.
Wow, that's exactly what Peter Zeihan keeps saying. I was on the fence about him, seems like he is correct about this one.
What patrick said is almost opposite to zeihan. Zeihan basically sees a sandwich and calles it two slices of bread. Patrick opens it up.
@@kth6736 can you provide actual reasons for your statement?
Yep, Peter is a bit dramatic but big picture i think he is very good at predicting long term trends.
As a Latinamerican, I don't even want to imagine the level of interventionism on domestic affairs that the US will want to impose on their "friendshoring" countries.
My first thought "you mean western imperialism is coming to an end", but they have to be coy for obvious reasons. I hope China boxes the US out in war games in Latin America.
They’re already imposing their values on you by various threats, which is why so many countries are pulling away from them now.
@@MichelleHellnah😂
@@USandGlobal china is already first partner of the world. Now tell me u r not coping😂
Latin Americans blaming the USA for their failures is a tale as old as time.
Somehow every other US-aligned state like Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Western Europe, Central Europe all flourish and do well, but Latin America blames America for their own domestic problems
The west is too addicted to the easy cheap goods from global trade, it will take a large moving force for people to decouple and build local producers. Peter Zeihan talks about this a lot, but the core issue is that initial forcing function to make it happen. I mean take the huge problems the west has had with China, and trade still continues to increase with them. It took a literal war to stop Russian energy imports, and even that looks likely to be temporary - not to mention the lessening impact of sanctions .
Globalization will continue, just it wont be dominated by the west unfortunately.
Ok ....executive summary right here. The American exportation of Debt-Based Currency is being rejected by the rest of humans living overseas....the "on-the-ground" result to American citizens here in the USA?.....unending and quickly growing INFLATION in the price of all purchases.......end of summary.
Mid sized and small towns here in Ohio have suffered with globalization. Places like Dayton, Springfield, Toledo, Youngstown. They all are stable, but not really growing and have drug and other crime rates above the national average. In some ways they resemble what China used to look like before 1990. Vacant store fronts, empty factories, potholes. Ohio has a great higher education infrastructure. Hopefully, companies will realize Ohio is ripe for reshoring. (Let's not even talk about Detroit.)
That's probably more due to the general failure of American capitalism. The USA as a whole suffers from very low infrastructure spending and very bad performance in almost every health and wellbeing metric. I saw a maternal mortality stat for 100000 live births in the USA 24 women die while in the UK even with their healthcare system on the verge of collapse and suffering from years of neglect it's only 6.8. Even ultra rural Australia is only around 5.
I think it's always good to highlight what might be beneficial for an economy as a whole will still have those who it is detrimental to. If most people are winners but a few are losers it's still going to be a win overall. I think this is what is often missed in the immigration debate as much as it is for offshoring, something I don't think some progressives understand.
@kaymish6178 lol what. I need to see those stats and studies (not because i doubt your stat or honesty. I highly doubt the study. What variables and factors are at play? It just doesn't meet the good study sniff test)
And where are you and where do people(globally) go for a specific best in the world medical treatment or surgery? Overwhelmingly you will be pointed to America. That's a huge reason our Healthcare will always remain at high cost.
And low infrastructure spending relative to area and city space of course we will. Our country is 100x the size and people are 10000x more spread out. In America we factor in a diminishing return metric when applying infrastructure and public transport etc. It just won't affect a huge number of people outside of the urban dense city centers. Meaning per dollar, the affect of infrastructure spending is minimal when looking at people affected by it.
@@kaighSea it's not a hard study to do. Take the number of women who die in child birth and divide by 100000 its a basic government statistic. And I cant believe you are trotting out that tired old line of the USA being too big. Lets take Australia again. About the same size as the USA with a fraction of the population and wealth, but still manages to do better.
@@kaymish6178 no, the rust belts decline lines up with a rise in globalization.
What a ham handed attempt to insert your agenda.....
Hola, llevo poco tiempo viendo tu contenido y el de alguno otros youtubers (didn't use to): encuentro tu voz pasiva muy agradable, tus opiniones bien fundamentadas y realmente interesantes los temas que abordas. I took the liberty to writte in spanish because I share your conclusion about globalization; it is not just about economics in a wider sense but the repercusion in micro economical relations on a wider societal level. Anyway, thanks for doing this