Are Labour winning votes or are Tories just losing them? | LBC analysis
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- Опубліковано 6 кві 2024
- The Conservatives are facing a worse election defeat than in 1997 at the next general election, as Labour prepare for a landslide victory that could give them more than 400 seats - the latest election poll has revealed.
YouGov's latest seat-by-seat poll will cause further headaches for Rishi Sunak, predicting even worse elections than an equivalent poll in January earlier this year.
Sir Keir Starmer's Labour will be handed a majority of 154 after winning 403 seats in the House of Commons, according to the poll.
Matthew Wright speaks to polling expert Sir John Curtice on what this all actually means.
Listen to the full show on Global Player: app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/...
#MatthewWright #Labour #Conservatives #Tory #RishiSunak #KeirStarmer #LizTruss #BorisJohnson #UK #News #LBC
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What is still mindboggling is the fact that working people still vote Tory
What is mind-boggling is that working people still vote Labour. There is something wrong with you.
everyone needs to learn how wrong capitalism is.
every hierarchy of competence is a bell curve (IQ bell curve) with few at the top and bottom and the majority in the MIDDLE.
capitalism is an artificial PYRAMID hierarchy.
/\ pyramid hierarchies are social constructs and are integral to capitalism/profit, there has to be a very large base of low paid workers in a capitalist hierarchy in order for profit to be generated, profit is NOT POSSIBLE in a natural bell curve hierarchy.
capitalism is unethical and abusive because of that fact.
When the only other choice is labour what do you expect
@andybanov4319 Corbyn offered an alternative but people voted on the headlines of the red tops over his policies.
Tory is a luxury name working class people can’t afford but buy anyways to brag to their friends that they are part of the rich class.
Tories have imploded and people have simply had enough of the corruption and incompetence.
More to do with people coming off mortgage deals and having to find £100s a month more.
everyone needs to learn how wrong capitalism is.
every hierarchy of competence is a bell curve (IQ bell curve) with few at the top and bottom and the majority in the MIDDLE.
capitalism is an artificial PYRAMID hierarchy.
/\ pyramid hierarchies are social constructs and are integral to capitalism/profit, there has to be a very large base of low paid workers in a capitalist hierarchy in order for profit to be generated, profit is NOT POSSIBLE in a natural bell curve hierarchy.
capitalism is unethical and abusive because of that fact.
All this is true. But tories used to be more competent. Boris Johnson’s government who are not fit for the job. These people aren’t politicians. They are extremists who are been put in positions of power. Every Tory goverment member who speaks sense are all former employees.
Yeah let's ignore Labour's sheer incompetence during their times in term.
@@Dynasty1818Nothing on the scale of this lot of Tories or previous lots of Tories.
My eternal gratitude goes to Boris Johnson, for single-handedly destroying the Conservative Party for generations to come. Were it not for him, there would be no Truss, no Sunak, no Braverman, no Badenoch, and they might still have had some halfway decent MPs around.
Delusional
Labour aren't popular(rightly so) , but the Tories have totally failed. Everyone want's them out.
Imagine what would happen if we had a Labour leader that everyone liked.
He would get sacked, like Boris.
@@johnrussell3961 Nobody is as corrupt, dishonest or incompetent as Boris.
Whatever leader Labour has, they will be demonised by the right wing press, The mail, telegraph, express, the sun, etc.
That would be tony blair: someone who had a private meeting with the upper class and agreed to be a tory in exchange for no negative media coverage. It's not a victory if you join the enemy
Carol Vordeman
Uk citizens are grasping for an alternative voting option that just isn’t there. Which is a dangerous thing!
Fully agree. Voting for a party just to get rid of the existing one while having no clue about that party's plans is flat out dangerous.
It can't be more dangerous than the current shower, surely?
I just want rishi to stop being a coward and call an election.
they're panicking, they'll string it along as much as possible, they are finished
@@samuelaubrey2612yeah basically this, they know if they call an election now, it'll be the last time they see the inside of No10 until at least 2040 and that frightens them.
Truss blew a gargantuan hole in the economy and has forever demolished any adage of the Tories being economically astute.
People will never forget the damage she did.
What about all the damage since 2010?
They will don’t worry the conservatives under thatcher blew a home in the economy and under John Major
It is too recent for the public to forget. Also it directly attacked the core Tory voters of pensioners.
After Johnson Sunak and Hancock killed a lot of them as well.
It’s nothing to do with that. This is a Westminster bubble answer. Partygate yes, it moved the needle but people don’t care about truss. The main issue is immigration.
"People will never forget the damage she did." I hope they won't forget, but mark my words, the electorate will forget. I vouch that they will have already forgottten 6 months down the road after the general election and especially so at the general election following that. It may still not be enough to prevent a second term of what will likely be a Labour Government, but we are likely to see an increase in Tory seats at that point in time. It all depends on whether the Tories are able to rid themselves of the likes of Rees-Mogg, Braverman, Gove, Truss and many others that have either moved the party too far to the right or have simply demonstrated themselves to be utterly incompetent or in the case of Rees-Mogg and Truss, both at the same time.
Just keep doing what you’re doing labour, nothing fancy, just win.
The Tories are losing, Labour need to become more dynamic and appealing.
Never interfere when your enemy is losing.,
Who cares , as long as Labour get in and flood the UK with benefit seekers ( just like me) LOL
@@johnrussell3961 very much this... and indeed I would strongly suspect that if you draw up a list of say the 150 seats that the Tories are likely to have left making yourself more appealing there would lose you seats elsewhere in the country
I will not vote for the Uniparty
@@mjc8281 . May took winning for granted , and tried to hide a death tax in her 2017 manifesto.
She lost enough Tory marginals that she lost Cameron’s majority,
Why is this surprising? It used to be accepted political wisdom that "Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them". The six changes of government I remember confirm that. All that's exceptional here is the scale of the failure.
I like that you make a point of saying "Reform Ltd". The status of it as a limited company acting as though it's a political party is a point worth bearing in mind.
How bizarre our politics is when Labour are set to romp home with a monstrous majority, with a vote share similar to 2017 Corbyn, which all the pundits insisted was a catastrophic result and half of Labour used as justification to wage the most shameful internal war British politics has ever seen.
It's honestly sickening to me how much spin the media put on the election results. They will focus on whichever part of the result paints the left in the worst light, or minimises their achievements. If Starmer wins the same vote share but gets a majority they'll say it proves he has much higher support than Corbyn, even though it's just evidence that the geography of his support changed. That's a valid point but not proof that he's better liked or has a greater democratic mandate. But that's what they'll say. It's so scummy.
I cant tell whether you don't understand what is going on, or you're being disingenuous.
In the case of the former, I will make it plain - Corbyn was never forecasted to win this many seats. The vast majority of polls predicted he wouldn't come close to a majority.
As for the most shameful internal war in British party politics, you must be 15 or something. If you even paid attention to the conservatives over the past 3 years, you would know that statement is false, to say nothing of your clear lack of understanding of British political history.
Yeah. 2017 was a huge success for Labour. "13 million votes for Socialism" as Tony Benn might have said.
See, 2017 was a loss because Labour lost. The current polls are predicting Labour to win which is why that's described as a win.
Winning prime ministers all have about the same share of the vote (around 41-43%). Its all about targeting constituencies and keeping your opposition at home
Not bizzare, first past the post math
Tories are just losing them. If only you had proportional or preferential voting - you’d have a minority Labour government.
Or a labour led coalition. No single party wins under PR.
@@johnrussell3961 Which would be wonderful for the people of the UK.
doesn't matter the party none should be able to get away with what they've done.
@Matt You mean closing down the economy? With you there.
After the last 14 years, I have no idea why anyone would vote tory.
To avoid paying the cost of fixing everything,,
@@zimri-lim8254 As long as they have a decent life, most Tories don’t care about the rest of us,
The Tory party lost the plot when they started to treat many Tories….as the rest .
Around 20% of the people in the UK economy have done pretty well under them, their house prices have risen 25% in the last couple of years and 66% since 2010 and they have no mortgage.
Blame it on Boomers
@@SlowhandGreg . Something is bent out of shape if asset values rise faster than growth.,
@@johnrussell3961 the Tories have put 1.8 trillion of debt into the economy.
If you look at the corporate tax cut by Osborne it was spent on share buy backs ceo pay and dividends
I have never understood the fabled working class tory voter. As an ex sheetmetal worker secondary modern lad from a northern council estate l know loads of working class tories. They seem to absorb the right media's constant diet of hatred of others. In my day it was the Soviet Union /communism, then the common market/EU. Fast forward to a plethora of culture war signifiers. They never see what is under their nose. They almost always believe what they are told by their "... elders and betters." They never really get anything material out of the system except a belief that they are somehow better than other people. I suspect a lot of my generation of w/c tories are lost to Reform plc. At least that's a true home for their political mindset.
Labour is just the least worst option, for real change we need to get rid of first past the post...
I think Labour is going to win big mainly because the Tories Cruelty has made them look so horrible with simple human policies like feeding the poor or helping the homeless are not even in discussion instead the Insanely expensive Rwanda policy and just changing the subject when it comes to Brexit policies.
Hope they get booted out they only look after the rich ie themselves 👍
The Conservatives have managed to demonstrate not just their callous disregard for people but also their incompetence as a safe harbour on any political or economic matters.
Labour have to give the Tories in Tory marginals an alternative they can vote for.
Cameron win a majority in 2015 with just 38% of the vote. Becuaae that 38% included the Tory marginals ,
Becuaae
Labour are running a tight, well targetted campaign. Why would they focus on winning a few seats by a huge margin when they can win a lot of seats by a decent margin?
Most people know we need PR. Then vote as if we already have it.
They’re WHAT!! 😂
@@johnrussell3961 Yep, it's frustrating - part of the reason why the Owen Jones crowd is so aggravating. They want to pretend that an absolutist approach is viable - people can vote for who they want, but they should understand that if their vote can never be won by someone running on a platform that can win an election, then they'll just be ignored in favor of someone who can be won with a reasonable concession from the other direction.
Starmer will get around the same amount as votes as Corbyn
You know the number of votes isn't what counts?
Love it if he gets less but win a majority. Something corbyn never came close too.
@@kb4903 Corbyn had no chance of taking the Tory marginals off the Tories. Higher majorities in safe labour seats doesn’t lead to Goverment.
Corbyn in the first election where the manifesto was written by Ed Milliband. The 2nd election manifesto was a car crash.
Except it is, since you cannot control where the votes you gain are distributed the only thing you can do is trying to gain more of them, even if their distribution mean you lose in the end. This is one of the absurdities of the Uk votimg system.
The irony is that if David Cameron had supported transferrable voting in the referendum a few years ago, and it had therefore been implemented, Reform wouldn't now be any threat to Conservatives
No they wouldn't there's not a single viable policy on their manifesto, they'd get ripped to shreds in an open debate
Because of the voting system.... Labour is just the other poor option. The Tories are loosing.
And Labour are winning
I'm surprised there getting even 20% support. Those people are either party donors or need to have their heads checked.
20% is around the % of the population that have prospered under the Tories in the last 14% years, what is starting to bite into that number is healthcare
@mauro They've weighed up the alternative!
or just because its the reality that only the tories or labour can gett into power in which the tories are the only viable option for those on the right who want their views to be enacted upon
@@domispablo7992 If voting for complete failure is regarded by you as the only option maybe you should reevaluate your political leanings?
Try these websites
Resolution Foundation
Joseph Rowntree Foundation
and these publications
New Statesman
New European
Byline Times
The main reason people are turning against labour in Wales is the 20mile per HR road speed limit but also won't vote Tory
No one is Daft enough to switch to Labour and think they could do a better job. Just look at Khan in London, as that is coming to a place near us.
How do you mean?
I still think that the Tory mob need to be punished after causing the mess they've left our country in.
Do you live in London? Khan has been an excellent mayor, and will continue to be when he's reelected. I won't be voting Labour in the General Election, though
@@gsygsy I do. Tories have been putting some fake pay per mile through people’s doors in the last week or so..
Has Khan done wll or badly? Not being a Londoner I don't know.
All of the private education and no talks about the elephant in the room. Blue rinse and pearls brigade don’t want to vote for an Asian man. Same issue in Scotland too. But, shhhhhh it’s too controversial to go there, so let’s all ignore it!
The cause of our economic problems are his and his parties policies, yet again we're back to Austerity and moneteris you would think after 14 years of it failing that they would twig and change course?
Fundemantly he's a cr@p Tory who's economically clueless
@jeff Or better still let's invent it. 😊
@@chatham43 Sunak and Yousaf.. how do you explain their numbers? I’ve seen no analysis that adequately explains it and all of the pundits dare not touch on racism. None of them. Maybe years later when the media get over woke.
Unfortunately there is more than a grain of truth in what you say; but future generations are unquestioningly less race aware. Change is afoot
Losing them my family around 19 of us life long Tories will never vote Tory again. They don’t exist anymore
Cash-starved Labour councils in urban Labour constituencies have thicker voters.
14 years of failure and it all Liz's fault.. be 'bout right for the Tories..🙄😂
I'm wondering if this is just mathematical misunderstanding.
Labour are already doing well in metropolitan seats, so there's not as much room to improve as in tory held seats. Likewise reform has a bigger presence in tory held seats and so reform has less impact on Labour held seats (the few that are left after the 2019 disaster for Labour). So all of the quandaries are to be expected. If there HAS been a dilution in Labour support in Labour strongholds (which are places that voted strongly for Corbyn by definition) then the cause for a reduction is also obvious... the headscratcher here is why this could be called a headscratcher!
Can’t heat can’t eat and living in slums
We need PR ! Except the right wing of both main parties don't want that...
My opinion is he has been an excellent mayor. Others, especially those who opposed the ULEZ, disagree.
In a two party system I feel that no party ever 'wins' but one loses. David Cameron didn't win, Brown's Labour lost etc. It'll be the same now. Starmer's Labour won't be winning but the Tories are so corrupt and have led this country to such a dire place that people have lost faith and won't vote for them.
So starmer is not more popular than Corbyn at his peak, just more ruthless and tactical, and benefitting from a weakened conservative party that he isn't responsible for.
Despite probably having very similar political stances on most issues Starmer and Corbyn have one key difference: Corbyn tried to change people's minds, Starmer tries to appease them, hence all his pivots and U turns after he won the leadership. We can examine the data on whether winning over the alastair campbells is worth losing the owen joneses, but Starmer owes Corbyn a debt as he still relies on his supporters.
Corbyn was an extremist who had lead a very comfortable life in his wealthy Islington luvvie bubble. Outside that bubble, he couldn’t understand or connect with anyone to the point he pushed the ‘working class’ heartlands to the Conservatives.
Rich luvvies like Owen Jones were what Corbyn represented, not ex-miners or fishermen in Mansfield or Grimsby
That's so delusional🤣
@@leikfroakies look at the polling numbers from today and 2017. Corbyn: 40% actual votes, Starmer: 44% voting intention. That's very similar levels of popularity and no one has seen Starmer's manifesto yet.
Whilst I think you are correct in your first point, I think Corbyn didn’t make enough effort to weaken the Conservative Party when the opportunities arose. That’s just my interpretation though.
@@sharkasattack7794 i don't think Starmer has weakened the tories, I think they've weakened themselves. Firstly they lied about the EU and immigration and this allowed nigel farage to build his parties and compete with them, then they became more right wing to try to match him, and finally they've annoyed their own members by choosing sunak as leader. Tory voters fear labour, there's nothing starmer has or can do to change that.
The Scotland figures are not accurate. Labour more likely to win 10 - 15ish sets only.
Labour biggest party in Scotland is not assured. There are a lot of Scots see Starmer as a Red Tory.... and they are aware he sat on the fence regarding Brexit.
The idea that you would be scared of voting Reform because you'll just get Labour is a solid reason why the right-wing should also be supporting electoral reform.
Starmer is basically a lightweight Tory
That's why former Labour safe seats are becoming more marginal
Btw - Tories losing election, not Labour winning it
Labour would be unelectable if they tried to take back the Red Wall .
And? Otherwise they remain unelected. The majority of people are somewhere in the middle. Go left or right from this and the appeal is to fewer. Our system means you have e to appeal to the centre. Bring in PR and it is more representative of the voters.
@@mikewallace1723
Maybe if Starmer had been honest about:
How he felt about Corbyn,
Or about A Green Economy
Or about University Tuition Fees,
Or Nationalising Utilities,
Or a second referendum on Brexit,
LGBTQ+IA
BLM & Extinction Rebellion....
But no! ....He's just a liar & full of 💩
How can Starmer promise anything at the moment when the Tories then steal the plans as their own plus he has no idea what shambles the country’s debts and economy will be in, if he gets into power?
Obviously people have had enough of the Tories.
The failure to have a responsible immigration policy for the past 20+ years has ruined the UK. Will it ever recover? Cant see it unfortunately.
where you get your votes is far more important . adding thousands of votes in marginals vs stacking them up in a safe seat . corbyn just stacked them up in 2017 in cities where they were already gonna win anyway
Labour has lost my vote after 50 years supporting them. I’d rather not vote than give credence to these pretenders.
If there is an honest person standing in your constituency vote for them.
Doesn't matter so long as we see the back of the Conservatives for a long time.
If the Tories had stopped the boats and done more for NHS they would have got back in with a landslide.
The English voting system is well overdue a change. We need some form of proportional representation and we need it yesterday.
The next PM has a lot of innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship to bring to bear via the new political economy led by the working class social mobility leader campaigning for radical reform 🌍
Labour winning in Scotland😅😅😅😅😅😅
People will vote "not Tories". Labour are essentially just a tribute act that kept the name.
Not sure Labour will do as well in Scotland as made out.
I despise the Tory Party but I'm not sure I want to vote for Labour Friends of Israel.
So which is it? Labours continuing problem with anti-semitism and losing the seat in Rochdale or Labours Friends of Israel?
@@annishilcock4587 If you believe Labour (specifically) has a problem with anti-Semitism, then I believe you a part of the problem.
@@robbie9629 And what problem would that be robbie that I pointed out a few facts to you?
@@annishilcock4587 What problem?... It was you that made the statement "Labours continuing problem with anti-semitism" remember?
URGENT: Oppose Rishi Sunak’s faith school plans
Using a footballing analogy you can only beat what is in front of you
Or lose to it, in Starmer's predecessors' cases
@@leikfroakies Totally and to me one of the amazing things about 2019 and I'm sure 100 years from now there will be courses taught on it is that Boris Johnson a graduate of Oxford and Eaton was able to talk large parts of the British voting public into a vote for him being a vote for change against that famous member of the establishment....
Jeremy Corbyn
Yeah its definitely an anti tory thing. Everyone I speak to is basically saying 'yeah but how else can we get rid of this lot of useless cretins'.
They're not saying they like or even dislike Labour's policies - because they sound exactly the same as Tory promises. At least Corbyn's policies sounded like a choice, even if I couldn't stand the man. But now? No-one can even name a labour policy, or point to one that will help with any of the current challenges like housing costs, environmental collapse, poor wages, abusive zero hour contracts, sorting out the massive wealth inequality, and so on. I don't mean 'where are the left wing policies' I mean literally where are ANY policies for solving those things. Everyone agrees those things are problems to some degree, but neither of our Hobson's choices have any plan that sounds like it's properly targeting those problems. They're happy to focus on divide and rule issues like Immigration of course, because it distracts everyone from demanding policies on the other things, and that's why immigration policy is never effective - because if it was effective then we'd start thinking about that other stuff.
This kind of thing is part of why I hate first past the post so much: the polls and vote results themselves tell you absolutely nothing worthwhile because people are forced into choosing between two parties who might well be offering basically exactly the same things as far as anyone can tell. Literally voting red vs blue, we're no better than the Americans and we love to laugh at their craziness, completely blind to our own.
People who say what you state here have not read any parties manifesto I can guarantee.
No election this year
labour doing nothing and seeming reasonable is their appeal and the reason they are doing so well. If they did have extreme viewpoints like that of the corbyn years labour wouldnt be atracting moderate or center right voters that it needs to form a majority. realistically we need PR to get us out of this situation
Those policies aren't extreme. They were perfectly normal a few decades ago, and they're perfectly normal in most of the developed European countries. The reason they don't fly in the UK isn't because they're unpopular but because the electoral system is skewed towards the Conservatives. The broader left wing vote is split between 3 parties (Labour, Greens, Lib Dems) and the right wing vote is only split between two parties (Conservatives and Lib Dems, Brexit/Reform stood down last time) so the Conservatives tend to win just because of that quirk. Electoral geography also favours more right wing voters even though they are a minority of the people. Lots of rural marginal seats are overpopulated with pensioners because the young people have to leave for cities to find work. Simply put, the electoral results do not represent the views of the British people much at all. Especially when it comes to policy, most people vote based on personalities. When polled, even Tory voters liked most of the "radical" policies on Corbyn's manifesto when they didn't know he was attached to them. Just goes to show that people are kind of childish and vote based mostly on vibes they pick up from media commentary and not on policies at all.
@@IshtarNike You have to play the game as it today. Not as you would like it to be, nor as it was a few years ago.
@@IshtarNike yeh I don't disagree, and it's why I said we need PR more than anything.
What I'm hearing from traditional Labour voters is "what are Labour going to do, I don't understand what I will be voting for?". Because Starmer is not putting forward policies people are puzzled. I fully agree that he should not yet be outlining policies because the shorter time he gives the Tories and Right Wing Media to format their lies the better.
Those on the right have for the want of a better word, perfected, their spinning of the truth and outright lies. But you need time to sow those lies so they become accepted in the minds of some as truth. The shorter period of time that Starmer gives, gives a greater chance those lies will fail.
If anyone is really interested in the principles and key objectives of the Labour Party, the material is easily available to anyone who can read. The fact that Labour hasnt published its manifesto - the promises for the first term in government - seems entirely sensible to me. "They havent got a plan" is a phrase that applies principally to the current government (despite what they say).
@@VinceLammas What those who keep repeating the phrase 'they haven't got a plan' really mean is they won't tell us what they plan to do so we can't steal those things that seem reasonable and how can we spread lies and misinformation about something we don't know about.
Starmer is acting just like a Barrister in the way he presents himself both at PMQ time and in interviews. He is giving nothing away and leading the other side down a path he wants them to go where he has set an ambush.
I would rather vote for Armageddon than any of the parties in parliament.
Polls -- plain opinion polls or MRP polls -- never forefront the number of voters who will not vote. They don't ignore them, but percentage turnout in GEs is only in the 60s, and in local by-elections, it's often down to the 20s. So there are lots of them, and they put as much thought into their choice as voters do. Historically, they may not have mattered, but they are going to be the key in the coming GE.
Sadly ex labour voters are turning to Reform UK. I dispare but i think everyone is sick of this government. I think some ex labour voters still believe in Brexit. Labour need to become more dynamic
If labour change leader they would get my support. With Tory even if Sunak is replaced I can't see any potential replacements viable or that I would be happy with. We were better off with even Boris. It's been going downhill even before Boris though. I'm going with independent/Green party. Whatever happens I think the whole political system needs drastic change. Especially how can we allow a non elected PM running the country.
Ah another Tory vote caused by not understanding the electoral system. Vote tactically
And they would loose support from the centre which greatly reduces there appeal in 100's of seats
I stopped reading after ‘we were better off with Boris’
@@Redsleather I stopped reading after stopped
If any ordinary workers that actually have a job or those that don’t and Vote for the Tory’s deserve every misfortune that the Tory’s can throw at them….there is no excuse.
Very woke of you
Vote Labour ✅
Kier Starmer has to grow a pair and make a statement about what's going on in Gaza! You CAN do that without being anti semitic OR supporting Hamas! Just a personal statement about maybe an "Overreaction" by Israel? He is losing thousands of voters every day (Including me) that he says nothing, hence he is appearing to support Israelis stance 100% with no caveat about ANYTHING they are doing. Gary (my personal views not necessarily those of the whole band) Gary
PLEASE PLEASE DONT FORGET TO GET YOUR PHOTO ID AND VOTE ON 2ND OF MAY....GET SOME BOTTLE AND BE HEARD.....DO YOU REALLY WANT THIS FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS???? PLEASE VOTE....THANKYOU..
I've been politically active for 46 yrs, I'm 62 and I can't remember a probable incoming Labour government with almost no positive reaction from the Labour base. Like him or loathe him, Blair, had momentum with the base in 1997. Starmer is simply viewed as the equivalent of John Major's " Grey man". What also doesn't help him is his " greased pig " attitude to Labour policies. Labour will win simply because they are not the Tory's not because people put faith in them changing things radically. The growing threat to Labour, in the future, is the left leaning independents given Labour's lurch to the right and their expulsion of the left
Torries just losing them ➡️➡️➡️
Tories are voting for Red Tories. It’s not complicated.
Red Conservatives, there are no Torys in Labour.
Most English seats are Tory. The only choice is which kind of Tories do the prefer.
@@robmc3338
Come On now, Starmer is a red Tory!
Far too complicated for you to understand, obviously!
@@brianferguson7840 spoken like a true Red Tory…
Labour are not winning Tories are losing Labour only slightly better than the Tories I will not vote for either
"slightly better" is still better
@@CryWillus Yeah but that doesn't mean you should vote for Labour. They are going to win anyway. It's better that they don't win a massive majority, because that means they can do ANYTHING unchallenged, exactly like the Tories have done with their massive majority that Bojo won for them. And considering the fact that Starmer has already abandoned all of the pledges he made to become party leader shows how untrustworthy he and his team are.
Then you have no right to don't complain about the state of the country.
@@TheTwosliceToasterlabour is still literally the best option, unless you're one of those cringe kids that keep voting for whatever incarnation of the socialist party is mucking around these days
@@annishilcock4587I have every right to complain last I heard it still suppose to be a free country If Tories and Labour don't take it away
TORIES OUT
I think the data answers your question. The change in Labour is that they are ruthlessly focused in dominating the centre ground vacated by the tories decade long slide/lurch to the right.
A strategy designed to take advantage of that would probably upset those who are in favour of a more radical set of Labour policies. The calculation in out First Past the Post is that the dissatisfaction caused by courting centrist votes will not carry a significant cost electorally (either in votes going green/snp/plaid etc or in people staying home.) Furthermore, any cost will be eclipsed by the dividends reaped in being competitive in swing seats and among swing voters.
If this is what is happening, the data would show that the traditional labour voter is unimpressed but not rebelling in sufficient numbers to make trouble, whilst the crucial votes that decide the election are more enthusiastic. Which is precisely what this shows.
You may not like it but I'd say you are watching a master class in how one party exploits the demise of a rival.
John Curtice the polling expert didn’t mention immigration, the number 1 issue for conservative voters and the number 2 issue for voters as a whole. Strange!!
Two 40 + adults in my London household. Middle class with working class rural backgrounds. One of us from Yorkshire dales, other from West Country. I would vote tactically for the best anti Tory result in whatever constituency, but I’m inwardly glad that the tactical vote the constituency in which I live isn’t Labour. I’m in Islington North and can’t see any Labour candidate doing much to the locally loved mr Corbyn.
Labour are losing working class socialists, like me.. no surprise that they’re picking up Tory voters 😂
working class voters abandoned Labour in the 2010's and started voting UKIP accelerated even quicker by appointing Corbyn
catch up
The final straw for ‘working class’ types abandoning Labour was Jeremy Corbyn, an unpalatable, unelectable extremist who understood nothing outside his Islington luvvie bubble.
The rich lefties like Owen Jones may have adored Corbyn, but the fact that those directly affected by Thatcher in the 1980s were flocking to the Conservatives in 2019 says it all!
Corbyn could never connect with ex-miners in Durham or ex-fishermen in Grimsby, never mind understand them
Labour party are Tories in red ties,Worse than the blue tie Tories
id argue all parties have abandoned their identity and the type of voter that wed stereotypically think would vote for them eg the way you described yourself as a working class socialist. The reason for that is because they are trying to gain a national vote and appear to voters from all demographics so naturally if they try to achieve this their policies aren't going to just be reflective of the working class. also the idea that labour represents the working class can be challenged by 2019
@@domispablo7992 the Blair project created 40% of school leavers to graduates and while the Tories are actively trying to get that number down education creates a more critical thinking Liberal mindset which the right are actively trying to put down.
Yougov put the demographic switching to Reform as 50+ male uneducated basically your older working class
I have voted since early 80's. I would never vote Tory. Dont believe in capitalism.
I have voted against Labour on only one occasion.
I wont be voting Labour this time. I have hardly seen any long term plans/policy. The whole Gaza thing was nail in coffin for my vote.
I will vote independant. Some nice local who may have an ounce of sense
The reason you won't see any Labour policies until the GE is called is because the Conservatives steal them, water them down, then call them their own.
Starmer is right to reveal nothing at this stage. The Tories have stolen Labour plans and passed them off as their own. An independent may be a nice person, but it’s just a wasted vote helping the Tories back into power
TORIES 😅😅OUT
Labour stands for nothing today. I have always voted Labour. Definitely won't be voting Labour this time.
Reform ltd will stand down in many seats.
The Tories betrayed their voters, and people don't forgive betrayal. There's no way back.
It's been the case for decades that by and large people don't vote for the party that most represents them, but against the party that LEAST represents them.
What does that say about the quality of our democracy and the calibre of our elected representatives?
This is why First Past the Post will always deliver the least popular choice across the electorate; how many times have the Tories been vaulted into government with only 40 or so percent of the vote?
We need PR now!
A parties manifesto is ripped up in the horse trading that goes on in forming a coalition with PR. You do not get what you voted for. You get a missmatch of whatever all the other people voted for in the coalition. Add to that the time needed to form a coaltion and how sometimes a new election is needed and I would say PR is not the saviour people think it is.
Both.
Anything but the Tories who will probably end up a similar state to UKIP, the country really needs it though.... a lot of work to do!
For me the main two parties is a choice of very bad (Tories) and worse, much worse (Labour)......
The Tories are in a dangerous position. Their support is less concentrated than Labour's. If the Tories popular vote dips below 30 percent it brings many seats into marginal territory and they could lose seats exponentially.
Its not becuse of liz truss ...its for thing like the appalling state of th NHS. etc
NHS is fine.
@@Dynasty1818have you tried to get an appointment with a consultant at a hospital there were none available when my doctor gave me a referral to book online and that was every hospital in Kent
I would say this is true of every failing government ever voters will switch. I can't remember much excitement when David Cameron and the lib dems won back in 2010. This is the FPTP system you will vote for what you believe is the least awful option or tactically. Having said this during the election campaign that Labour lead might narrow if they continue to offer nothing up because voters will want some Policies.
I have realised the torie friends of Israel are the same of labour friends of Israel they are the same group so do I think they are different party NO if you have a group deciding what policies you have it is the same as America, you have AIPAC running both parties
Vote for an independent party, both Labour and Tories are pretty much the same parties now. Tory or Tory Lite?
Can’t vote for Labour this time round, it’s more of the same what’s the point. Out torying the tories, we need change !!!!!!!!!!!!
Vote reform
Ulez simple
Brexit?
The second.
What should absolutely terrify the Tories is what happens when their polling drops below Reform? They will no longer be the default right wing choice, if you are further to the right then Labour want your extreme vote to count, the natural choice will be Reform! This will see the Tories become irrelevant. They will be seen as the right wing vote splitters, the people who are preventing a right wing Govt forming (more right wing than Labour).
If this happens the challenge for Reform will be to become a normal party, not just a company owned by Nigel Farage and Richard Tice.
@@chesterdonnelly1212 All the parties are companies
@@jeffsimon9594 yes but they're not a company owned and controlled by a single person.
@@jeffsimon9594 Scottish Labour are an accounting unit.
She out politically Thomas Carol Monoghon SNP candidate. Labour gain Glasgow West it English seat Scotland politically Thomas. Who Built the Tories Thomas it oldest seat in Scotland. Got everything Thomas Glasgow West
US LIB DEMS ARE A PROUD PEOPLE! 🔶️
WE WILL NOT BE DISCRIMINATED AGAINST FOR WE R A GREAT RACE!
EU POWER! 🇪🇺🚀
Would somebody please broadcast the fact that Farage would like to see the end of the NHS, and replace it with an American style insurance based healthcare system . He has stated this on several occasions, but many people I talk to don't know about it.
he don't talk about it anymore as it's not popular with brexit voters but yeah make no mistake he don't believe in the NHS
Well whoever votes Tories obviously have not learned anything 😂
@jason And what have you learned about current Labour?
@@chatham43 have you learned anything about the Tories
Labour seen as no better than the tories as stopping illegal immigration 😢
If those people on boats are illegal, then why don't the police arrest them ?? Clue : It's not illegal .
You mean the party that hasn’t been in power for 14 years?
How about we stop destabilising other countries?
They are only illegal if they avoid border force . Meeting border force and declaring they want asylum is not illegal
@@garyh1572 then the law needs changing because just turning up should be illegal.
30p Lee
its becouse of people with the opinion like you fellow