if they'd allow us to use rewind tokens on already picked packs to increase the odds to a 1/4 or a 1/3 by removing the already picked card would make wonder picking way better. Right now you can only get rewind tokens when you level or complete missions, making it harder to abuse and still chance based.
That's almost confirmed to just be a 1/5 chance, but we dont know if there's a "movement prediction" yet. That is still being analyzed, waiting for a bigger sample size.
What really irks me is paying 3 stamina for a 1 diamond card. That and needing to wait for my phone to load all of the animations that are ultimately redundant anyway. If it's all completely randomised then just deal me out a random card FFS. The whole system would feel far less bad if you just selected what you wanted to roll on and then were only charged for the relative rarity that you end up with.
what I've noticed is that I see a lot of packs with dupes. The other day I had six packs with dupes at the same time. The chance for dupes even with common cards isnt very high but then to see six out of 16 with it is crazy
All corporations operate off greed to profit for their shareholders. Only spend your hard earned money if you feel like it's worth it to you. However in this case, I see wonder picks more as freebies. The only issue is how likely are we actually going to see 2*? I'm hoping to answer this question at the least so players have a realistic expectation of how to spend their wonder hourglass (whether or not they're free to play).
My wife and i play relegiously , we pulled 2 stars 4~5 times each and they didnt show up on each other's wonder pick, what we see instead are the packs opened before and after those 2 stars pack and we've check religiously over 2~ 3 days after those packs, it is rigged and i believe the limit is something like no more than 2 starts per forthnight, I saw 2 stars from random people twice and from friend once since official launch.
This is tangentially related. My GF opened a pack a few nights ago and only a couple of minutes later it was in my wonder pick but already expired. How could a pack that was opened less than half an hour beforehand already be expired? There's definitely some BS on the go.
Probably justconfirmation bias but i usually pick the card where it is and i feel that i am getting better odds than 1/5, but i doubt it is a real thing.
Surely is a bias. I see some "experiment" that demonstrate that you received the same card for every position. The card card that you received from a wonderful pick is predetermined when you "pay"
There is definitely something in the system that creates an additional percentage chance based on the rarity of the card whether or not it will show up in your wonder picks. It's very obvious because I have alternative accounts. Every single time I pull a 2 star, I stop opening any more packs on the alts. There have been plenty of instances where I have only opened 1 pack on an alt. I had already cycled through all other wonder picks from that alt on my my main account (I have had this exact scenario happen multiple times). Every time this happened, that pack never showed up in my wonder picks. I have 3 alt accounts and probably pulled 8-10 2 stars from those. I have only ever seen 1 show up in my wonder picks on my main account.
Once I pulled a 2 star card and told my friend immediately to check his wonder picks. He didn't see my pull in his wonder picks for the next few days. I've been playing since the soft launch and I've seen only 2-3 times a pick with 2 star. So I believe wonder pick has reduced rate for pulls containing rare cards.
You always bringing up great points. I've been thinking a lot about how the highest rarity I've ever seen is ex Pokémon, or level 1 gold stars. I never see 2 star gold.
Let me tell you something cool, if you do a reroll and in the first pack of Mewtwo you get a rare card, you can add that account as a friend and that pack will appear in wonder pick, 100% of the time, even if it has a 2 star card.
There's something I've noticed after making my 2nd account. I didn't get 2 star wonder picks until my account was atleast lvl 20. Perhaps that's what skewing numbers. Not saying its impossible, but less likely. My first account even pulled a 2 star card during the time the new one was underlevel, but I didn't see it at all in wonder picks.
I've only seen one 2-star, a moltres. I check a few times each day and have been playing since launch. I use my wonder picks pretty frequently so maybe the packs I get are seeded to give me fewer because I'm often low. I have a poorly evidenced conspiracy theory! That is that wonder picks might be slightly swayed by the typing and evolution lines of the last deck you played and the last one you saved. I've had some weird stuff come up when testing this, like suddenly seeing 2 caterpie and one butterfree in one WP pack after intentionally building a deck with an incomplete butterfree line to work on as I collect. For science I saved a deck that was all electric types to see if I could get a pikachu EX to show up, and sure enough I saw one. I've been exclusively playing Starmie aggro the last few days too, and the day I saved that incomplete electric type deck, (and I wasn't even trying to do this) I also saw a bunch of water/electric dragonite line cards in WP. 2 days ago I saved a "bait" deck with my incomplete greninja line and I saw a greninja pretty soon after. The deck also has the caterpie line and an alakazam line both incomplete in it, and I've seen a few of those cards too. Those are the only evo lines in that deck. The holos I've got in my WP right now include 3 colorless cards: meowth and 2 snorlax (one of each 3d and 1s). Logically this is very, very likely confirmation bias though. I look at a lot of cards in WP because I check multiple times each day, and there are only so many cards in the current set. I'm also not listing all the cards I've seen that haven't produced a notable pattern. Out of curiosity I'm doing something goofy and deleting all my decks except 3 variants of machamp, with my 2 star machamp in each, and in every one of my deck slots I'm saving a deck that is only 1 machamp 2 star. I also just finished playing a couple games with machamp decks, finally getting away from mainly playing Starmie lol. I'm guessing my results are uninteresting, let's see!
The precise math for 2 star frequency is pretty tedious and, at least for writing a YT comment lol, not really worth the effort considering the small difference that's made by the game omitting 3 star and crown rare cards in WPs, and the rarity of god packs. 2.49% is the exact chance of seeing a 2 star in a normal pack (between slots 4 and 5, though do note this doesn't omit 3 star and crown rare packs). So if WPs aren't using some kind of weighting system, you'd expect to see a 2 star about once every 40 packs. That doesn't mean it's guaranteed that you see one in 40 though. Variance between players is normal. I might have looked at 100 WPs and only seeing one 2 star, which isn't out of the ordinary. The formula for the chance to see a 2 star is 1-(1-R)^N where R is the chance of seeing the 2 star, and N is the number of times you've "rolled the dice" of the RNG. So in this example, about 92% of people would have seen at least one 2-star by 100 WPs.
Nothing interesting in the wonder picks related to fighting type or the Machamp EX line yet. Got another Pikachu EX, though I deleted my electric decks.
I was thinking about rerolling my account in the first week but then I got a god pack with 2 star Pikachu, 1 2 star blastoise, 1 2 star full art wigglytuff and a full art eevee. I didn't know that was even a possibility. I remember getting more thanks after. Mainly because I usually get maybe one from wonderpick on the daily. I have definitely seen 2 star wonderpicks but I don't see them on the daily.
Have you had any viewers tell you that wishlisting cards will also rig your wonder pick? Supposedly wishlisting cards will lower the chances of the cards you’re looking for to show up in WP. I didn’t hear about this until a viewer left a comment on mine and then others came forth also expressing that they believe this. Now I do have other viewers who say the moment they wish listed something, they noticed it showing up on wonder pick. Thought?
I havent heard any solid proof on that at all. I can see why the anecdotes are heavy on this because it's a "wish"list. I havent disproved it either however.
Do you know about the experience where time will appear more slow if you just watch the clock? If you're conscious and intentionally looking for it, you'll be a lot more aware and feel that it doesn't appear as often. There are already hundreds of cards for us to choose from, let alone at different rates too.
I think the 2 stars have exclusion parameters compared to other booster pulls. Like i have done many alternate account where i got god pack or 2 stars. They didn’t show up on all other accounts i linked in friend list. I guess it’s also a level restriction like below lv8 nothing more than 1 star can be picked as wonder pick or also sthg like in the first 100 boosters you opened, the 2 stars can’t be shared
I literally only use my wonder pick for 2 ⭐ cards for the past 2 weeks, I've been fully recharged and still waiting all week since seeing a Zapdos over a week ago
Indeed that seems to be the general consensus on 2* appearance rates. Sounds like below what we would expect if it was 'random' selection of packs for WPs. This google form will hopefully answer this certainly once and for all if 2* pack rates are rigged to be lower.
My wonder picks right now are 15 plus 4 expired. One non-expired is a friend and 14 are non-friends. For the expired packs, 2 are friends. I hope that's okay to put in the data.... in this case I am marking friend 1 as the actual friend, 2 blank since there's only 15 not 16, and friend 3 and 4 are the non-friends.
What i have found is that a pack only shows up in wonder pick for one person. For example, my friends all see different packs from me in there wonder pick, but never the same pack
I noticed an influx off thanks today shortly after pulling a crown rare pikachu... maybe bot a coincidence To add to that: I asked my friend if the pack with gold pikachu showed up for her, but she had a different pack for me as her friend pick.
Not sure if joking or not. At first it felt like a troll, but honestly, I felt like I saw more 2 stars earlier in the game in wonder pick than today. Earlier days was when I had much less wonder hourglass.
Almost Everytime im fully empty the reset shows with my wishlisted dragonite or articuno ex. Then i buy gold, fail the wonderpick. (I opened almost 200 mewtwo packs alone also, still none)
@@Bropenings yeah it's happening to me, the less wonderglass I have the more the EX appear, it's like it's forcing you to buy the wonderglass or use your gold
Nah that's not true at all, or put in the coding for the game. Use all your wonder picks so you can get better rolls. Lol yeah right bro, you get what you're friends get. And it probably doesn't wager too register 2 diamond packs as much. But you get the same picks as the other people in your list. You don't get better cards out of nowhere just because you have no wonder keys left.
Yeah I was just thinking about tracking the results so we could better hit the target next time we see certain cards we want. So so frustrated in missing what I am after. I understand the only other way to get what you want is pack points, but most people are not going to be able to reach 500 (or more) points smh.
My girldfirend and I play together, we each have the same 4 friends/friend list. I have never seen her 2 star pulls in my wonder picks and she has never seen my 2 star packs, neither of us have seen our friends 2 star pulls...... one star art cards no problem, but 2 star pulls have not shown up for us
I got a God Pack and I usually get wonder picked by my friends and they send me a thanks but this time I didn't got any thanks so that makes me think that a god pack does not get to be wonder picked
I've been playing since global launch with 2 accounts and I've seen only 2 2stars so far. Btw my friend opened 10 packs and he got 3 2stars in different packs but that packs did not showed at all. Just random garbage packs he opened showed up...
It's a 1 in 5 chance or 20%. A Wonder Pick is generated as soon as a pick is selected, its an illusion of choice. It doesn't matter where a player clicks they'll get the card they were going to get. Besides doing it this way is less stress on their system, they only have to generate 1 card, otherwise they would have to generate 5 and place them, and do it all server side, because if it was client side it would only be a matter of time to show what is there before a user selects. I seen someone using an emulator to open the same Wonder Pick in 5 instances at the same time, they only got the same card no matter where they clicked.
Already filled the form! Maybe it'd have been interesting to also add 4d but maybe that'd have been too many combinations. I'll try to add data 2 or 3 times per day if I can (with the 4 hour gap in mind). Speaking of the 3 day limit, from my anecdotal tests with friends I've also seen packs appear from almost immediately in wonder picks (in 1 hour) to taken up to 2 days to see one.
Yeah adding 4D would complicate the form too much at this stage. Our main goal is to determine 2 star rates. Even 1 star was only a secondary consideration. Thank you for anecdotal evidence on the 3 day limit. It helps if only a little to hear confirmation.
@@Bropenings filling the form again I just noticed sth. I usually have 4 friend picks and have 3 right now, however that's not the weird thing. The weird thing is that all slots from 4th to 16th are filled with non friend picks, including the 4th. So you can have 3 slots with friend picks and 13 with non friend picks, I tripled checked just in case. Maybe you knew about this, but I definitely didn't.
@@fractyon3344 yeah there's some abnormality there if you don't have 4 friends showing. Just fill the form the best you can. Our goal is 2* rates and this doesn't impact it much.
Do you get the 2.5% chance including rare packs? Because they Most likely never appear in wonder pick, either because it is hard coded or because they likely contain Higher rarity cards.
Rare packs can show on WP also just without 3* or crown rares but you make a good point. I didn't calculate, as I said in video, based on rates after removing impossible pulls. The number isn't going to be very far off though.
Is it possible to roll a new account until you pull a 2* or a loaded single pack then add that account to a friend list and force wonder pick to show up for you with curated 1/5 choices?
That's one of the things we've been testing... since you asked, it's possible, but it comes with a lot of problems. One of them is about to be verified with the google form in this video - Just because you have 2* pulled on an alt, doesn't mean there's a chance for it to even show on your main as WP. This isn't necessarily a bad thing to prevent abuse of the system.
@@Bropenings fair enough but I'm also curious if a new account that's only opened the "trial" pack and 1 of their own, will it show up as a 50% chance to get the "trial" or is there a chance you don't even see them come up on the friends list by some other rng mechanic
Also I wonder if there is a grace period that if you went inactive and get a request around 3 days after youve last opened a pack will your account be ineligible to appear in the feed for someone else completely? Cuz yeah if theres a way, people will 100% abuse this system
i have never ever seen a god pack on wonder pick even tho i have pulled 1 myself.. 2 of our discord friend also couldnt find mine,, maybe because i pulled another packs.. i wish i know how it works sooner..
Your form is very likely going to be biased. Its self reported. Most people tend to not the take effort to fill in form if they dont see anything interesting. Also people who clicked on a video called "wonder pick rigged" is gonna be biased
All forms will have some form of bias. It's important to list biases but it doesn't mean we shouldn't even try to research. The good news? Turns out 1 star rates were approximately correct to pack rates. Check out my next video. This comparison with 2 star being much lower than pack rates is where the problem lies.
I could've included 4D also but needed to keep the form clean/easy to use to actually get enough data. Complex forms won't see much use. Originally I only planned for 2 star to be included as that's really the only thing that bothers me personally given the rarity of pulling 2 star from packs, and the shear number of them. 1 star and 4D are normally more achievable using packs. However in the end I decided to include 1 star because it's easy to see when scrolling quickly down the WP list. 4D requires a bit more attention from a visual perspective and could get missed.
@@Bropenings Because you are talking about more than 1 trial. Since you are looking for 1 concrete succes(Availability of a 2 star in wonderpick) we have to work with the total success of at least 99%. So you can use the Binomial Distribution Formula with probability of a single outcome as 2.5%(as per your data), Total probability of 99%, number of success (x) >=1, that means at least 1 2 star pick shows up. The. You can find n which is the number of trials
![LILY RANK 34 IN SOLO SHOWDOWN👑[MAX TIER] No Team](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/zz3Yrvs9Su4/mqdefault.jpg)
Help us track wonder pick rare card rates by filling this form here: forms.gle/6Mpch3J8AiejN7yN8
if they'd allow us to use rewind tokens on already picked packs to increase the odds to a 1/4 or a 1/3 by removing the already picked card would make wonder picking way better. Right now you can only get rewind tokens when you level or complete missions, making it harder to abuse and still chance based.
I nearly always miss the Rare cards when doing the wonder pick .
That's almost confirmed to just be a 1/5 chance, but we dont know if there's a "movement prediction" yet. That is still being analyzed, waiting for a bigger sample size.
What really irks me is paying 3 stamina for a 1 diamond card. That and needing to wait for my phone to load all of the animations that are ultimately redundant anyway. If it's all completely randomised then just deal me out a random card FFS.
The whole system would feel far less bad if you just selected what you wanted to roll on and then were only charged for the relative rarity that you end up with.
what I've noticed is that I see a lot of packs with dupes. The other day I had six packs with dupes at the same time. The chance for dupes even with common cards isnt very high but then to see six out of 16 with it is crazy
Greedy devs will always be greedy devs so it's nothing new if they rigged it 💁♂️
In a world fueled by money, it’s not shocking to see a company attempt to reach that goal.
All corporations operate off greed to profit for their shareholders. Only spend your hard earned money if you feel like it's worth it to you. However in this case, I see wonder picks more as freebies. The only issue is how likely are we actually going to see 2*? I'm hoping to answer this question at the least so players have a realistic expectation of how to spend their wonder hourglass (whether or not they're free to play).
The devs are not the greedy ones, their bosses are.
@@Lexs-238 accurate distinction
My wife and i play relegiously , we pulled 2 stars 4~5 times each and they didnt show up on each other's wonder pick, what we see instead are the packs opened before and after those 2 stars pack and we've check religiously over 2~ 3 days after those packs, it is rigged and i believe the limit is something like no more than 2 starts per forthnight, I saw 2 stars from random people twice and from friend once since official launch.
This is tangentially related. My GF opened a pack a few nights ago and only a couple of minutes later it was in my wonder pick but already expired. How could a pack that was opened less than half an hour beforehand already be expired?
There's definitely some BS on the go.
Probably justconfirmation bias but i usually pick the card where it is and i feel that i am getting better odds than 1/5, but i doubt it is a real thing.
Works that way for me also.
I legit got 2 exes and 1 supporter using that tactic
Surely is a bias. I see some "experiment" that demonstrate that you received the same card for every position. The card card that you received from a wonderful pick is predetermined when you "pay"
There is definitely something in the system that creates an additional percentage chance based on the rarity of the card whether or not it will show up in your wonder picks. It's very obvious because I have alternative accounts. Every single time I pull a 2 star, I stop opening any more packs on the alts. There have been plenty of instances where I have only opened 1 pack on an alt. I had already cycled through all other wonder picks from that alt on my my main account (I have had this exact scenario happen multiple times). Every time this happened, that pack never showed up in my wonder picks. I have 3 alt accounts and probably pulled 8-10 2 stars from those. I have only ever seen 1 show up in my wonder picks on my main account.
Once I pulled a 2 star card and told my friend immediately to check his wonder picks. He didn't see my pull in his wonder picks for the next few days. I've been playing since the soft launch and I've seen only 2-3 times a pick with 2 star. So I believe wonder pick has reduced rate for pulls containing rare cards.
You always bringing up great points. I've been thinking a lot about how the highest rarity I've ever seen is ex Pokémon, or level 1 gold stars. I never see 2 star gold.
Let me tell you something cool, if you do a reroll and in the first pack of Mewtwo you get a rare card, you can add that account as a friend and that pack will appear in wonder pick, 100% of the time, even if it has a 2 star card.
I've been playing since day one and did not even know these rarity could be in wonder picks
There's something I've noticed after making my 2nd account. I didn't get 2 star wonder picks until my account was atleast lvl 20. Perhaps that's what skewing numbers. Not saying its impossible, but less likely. My first account even pulled a 2 star card during the time the new one was underlevel, but I didn't see it at all in wonder picks.
I've only seen one 2-star, a moltres. I check a few times each day and have been playing since launch. I use my wonder picks pretty frequently so maybe the packs I get are seeded to give me fewer because I'm often low.
I have a poorly evidenced conspiracy theory! That is that wonder picks might be slightly swayed by the typing and evolution lines of the last deck you played and the last one you saved. I've had some weird stuff come up when testing this, like suddenly seeing 2 caterpie and one butterfree in one WP pack after intentionally building a deck with an incomplete butterfree line to work on as I collect. For science I saved a deck that was all electric types to see if I could get a pikachu EX to show up, and sure enough I saw one. I've been exclusively playing Starmie aggro the last few days too, and the day I saved that incomplete electric type deck, (and I wasn't even trying to do this) I also saw a bunch of water/electric dragonite line cards in WP. 2 days ago I saved a "bait" deck with my incomplete greninja line and I saw a greninja pretty soon after. The deck also has the caterpie line and an alakazam line both incomplete in it, and I've seen a few of those cards too. Those are the only evo lines in that deck. The holos I've got in my WP right now include 3 colorless cards: meowth and 2 snorlax (one of each 3d and 1s). Logically this is very, very likely confirmation bias though. I look at a lot of cards in WP because I check multiple times each day, and there are only so many cards in the current set. I'm also not listing all the cards I've seen that haven't produced a notable pattern. Out of curiosity I'm doing something goofy and deleting all my decks except 3 variants of machamp, with my 2 star machamp in each, and in every one of my deck slots I'm saving a deck that is only 1 machamp 2 star. I also just finished playing a couple games with machamp decks, finally getting away from mainly playing Starmie lol. I'm guessing my results are uninteresting, let's see!
The precise math for 2 star frequency is pretty tedious and, at least for writing a YT comment lol, not really worth the effort considering the small difference that's made by the game omitting 3 star and crown rare cards in WPs, and the rarity of god packs. 2.49% is the exact chance of seeing a 2 star in a normal pack (between slots 4 and 5, though do note this doesn't omit 3 star and crown rare packs). So if WPs aren't using some kind of weighting system, you'd expect to see a 2 star about once every 40 packs. That doesn't mean it's guaranteed that you see one in 40 though. Variance between players is normal. I might have looked at 100 WPs and only seeing one 2 star, which isn't out of the ordinary. The formula for the chance to see a 2 star is 1-(1-R)^N where R is the chance of seeing the 2 star, and N is the number of times you've "rolled the dice" of the RNG. So in this example, about 92% of people would have seen at least one 2-star by 100 WPs.
Nothing interesting in the wonder picks related to fighting type or the Machamp EX line yet. Got another Pikachu EX, though I deleted my electric decks.
I was thinking about rerolling my account in the first week but then I got a god pack with 2 star Pikachu, 1 2 star blastoise, 1 2 star full art wigglytuff and a full art eevee.
I didn't know that was even a possibility.
I remember getting more thanks after. Mainly because I usually get maybe one from wonderpick on the daily.
I have definitely seen 2 star wonderpicks but I don't see them on the daily.
Theyve shown me 10 articuno ex in 2 days, 3 being 2*, ive failed them all. The 3 were the only 2* i saw aside from a wiggly. Being 4 total in 3 weeks
5 accounts over 300 resets only ever seen 1 2 star starmie in wonderpick
This google form will hopefully confirm this is normal beyond just anecdotal evidence.
How many of you have seen a god pack in your wonder pick
Have you had any viewers tell you that wishlisting cards will also rig your wonder pick? Supposedly wishlisting cards will lower the chances of the cards you’re looking for to show up in WP.
I didn’t hear about this until a viewer left a comment on mine and then others came forth also expressing that they believe this.
Now I do have other viewers who say the moment they wish listed something, they noticed it showing up on wonder pick.
Thought?
I havent heard any solid proof on that at all. I can see why the anecdotes are heavy on this because it's a "wish"list.
I havent disproved it either however.
Do you know about the experience where time will appear more slow if you just watch the clock?
If you're conscious and intentionally looking for it, you'll be a lot more aware and feel that it doesn't appear as often. There are already hundreds of cards for us to choose from, let alone at different rates too.
Wonder picks in general is unfair
I think the 2 stars have exclusion parameters compared to other booster pulls. Like i have done many alternate account where i got god pack or 2 stars. They didn’t show up on all other accounts i linked in friend list. I guess it’s also a level restriction like below lv8 nothing more than 1 star can be picked as wonder pick or also sthg like in the first 100 boosters you opened, the 2 stars can’t be shared
I literally only use my wonder pick for 2 ⭐ cards for the past 2 weeks, I've been fully recharged and still waiting all week since seeing a Zapdos over a week ago
Indeed that seems to be the general consensus on 2* appearance rates. Sounds like below what we would expect if it was 'random' selection of packs for WPs. This google form will hopefully answer this certainly once and for all if 2* pack rates are rigged to be lower.
To me it seems like around every 200th pick has a 2* in it
My wonder picks right now are 15 plus 4 expired. One non-expired is a friend and 14 are non-friends. For the expired packs, 2 are friends. I hope that's okay to put in the data.... in this case I am marking friend 1 as the actual friend, 2 blank since there's only 15 not 16, and friend 3 and 4 are the non-friends.
What i have found is that a pack only shows up in wonder pick for one person. For example, my friends all see different packs from me in there wonder pick, but never the same pack
I mean I still haven't seen a 2 star wonder pick. I'm not checking every reset but like I've been playing a week so odds are I'd see one
I noticed an influx off thanks today shortly after pulling a crown rare pikachu... maybe bot a coincidence
To add to that: I asked my friend if the pack with gold pikachu showed up for her, but she had a different pack for me as her friend pick.
try using all of your Wonderpick refills and stamina, they'll start appearing
Not sure if joking or not. At first it felt like a troll, but honestly, I felt like I saw more 2 stars earlier in the game in wonder pick than today. Earlier days was when I had much less wonder hourglass.
Almost Everytime im fully empty the reset shows with my wishlisted dragonite or articuno ex. Then i buy gold, fail the wonderpick.
(I opened almost 200 mewtwo packs alone also, still none)
It took me 4 wounder picks to get my Flareon 😂
@@Bropenings yeah it's happening to me, the less wonderglass I have the more the EX appear, it's like it's forcing you to buy the wonderglass or use your gold
Nah that's not true at all, or put in the coding for the game. Use all your wonder picks so you can get better rolls. Lol yeah right bro, you get what you're friends get. And it probably doesn't wager too register 2 diamond packs as much. But you get the same picks as the other people in your list. You don't get better cards out of nowhere just because you have no wonder keys left.
Ive never seen a 2Star in wonder picks. Been playing since day one…
Yeah I was just thinking about tracking the results so we could better hit the target next time we see certain cards we want. So so frustrated in missing what I am after. I understand the only other way to get what you want is pack points, but most people are not going to be able to reach 500 (or more) points smh.
Opens game up. Sees a 2 star ⭐️ wonder pick. Laughs. Gives it a go. PICKS THE 2* 🎉😂😂😂 couldn’t make it up!
My girldfirend and I play together, we each have the same 4 friends/friend list. I have never seen her 2 star pulls in my wonder picks and she has never seen my 2 star packs, neither of us have seen our friends 2 star pulls......
one star art cards no problem, but 2 star pulls have not shown up for us
This form hopefully will finally answer that question
I got a God Pack and I usually get wonder picked by my friends and they send me a thanks but this time I didn't got any thanks so that makes me think that a god pack does not get to be wonder picked
I've been playing since global launch with 2 accounts and I've seen only 2 2stars so far. Btw my friend opened 10 packs and he got 3 2stars in different packs but that packs did not showed at all. Just random garbage packs he opened showed up...
It's a 1 in 5 chance or 20%. A Wonder Pick is generated as soon as a pick is selected, its an illusion of choice. It doesn't matter where a player clicks they'll get the card they were going to get. Besides doing it this way is less stress on their system, they only have to generate 1 card, otherwise they would have to generate 5 and place them, and do it all server side, because if it was client side it would only be a matter of time to show what is there before a user selects. I seen someone using an emulator to open the same Wonder Pick in 5 instances at the same time, they only got the same card no matter where they clicked.
Look up "PTCG Pocket Wonder Pick Test and there is no trick on picking"
Should we be including 4 diamond EXs in with 1 star cards?
Not for this form
I saw a 2 star alternate art gengar ex in wonder pick once…and whiffed it😭😭😭
Already filled the form! Maybe it'd have been interesting to also add 4d but maybe that'd have been too many combinations. I'll try to add data 2 or 3 times per day if I can (with the 4 hour gap in mind).
Speaking of the 3 day limit, from my anecdotal tests with friends I've also seen packs appear from almost immediately in wonder picks (in 1 hour) to taken up to 2 days to see one.
Yeah adding 4D would complicate the form too much at this stage. Our main goal is to determine 2 star rates. Even 1 star was only a secondary consideration.
Thank you for anecdotal evidence on the 3 day limit. It helps if only a little to hear confirmation.
@@Bropenings filling the form again I just noticed sth. I usually have 4 friend picks and have 3 right now, however that's not the weird thing. The weird thing is that all slots from 4th to 16th are filled with non friend picks, including the 4th. So you can have 3 slots with friend picks and 13 with non friend picks, I tripled checked just in case.
Maybe you knew about this, but I definitely didn't.
@@fractyon3344 yeah there's some abnormality there if you don't have 4 friends showing. Just fill the form the best you can. Our goal is 2* rates and this doesn't impact it much.
Do you get the 2.5% chance including rare packs? Because they Most likely never appear in wonder pick, either because it is hard coded or because they likely contain Higher rarity cards.
Included rare packs
Rare packs can show on WP also just without 3* or crown rares but you make a good point. I didn't calculate, as I said in video, based on rates after removing impossible pulls. The number isn't going to be very far off though.
Am I the only one who sees less EXs than 1 star cards
Also never seen a 2 star, I log 2-3 times a day
Month in game and no 2star at all. But I know my friends got “tons” of them
My first 2 star pick an I missed 😭Got Sabrina fyll art the same day could got 2 full art supporters
Is it possible to roll a new account until you pull a 2* or a loaded single pack then add that account to a friend list and force wonder pick to show up for you with curated 1/5 choices?
That's one of the things we've been testing... since you asked, it's possible, but it comes with a lot of problems. One of them is about to be verified with the google form in this video - Just because you have 2* pulled on an alt, doesn't mean there's a chance for it to even show on your main as WP. This isn't necessarily a bad thing to prevent abuse of the system.
@@Bropenings fair enough but I'm also curious if a new account that's only opened the "trial" pack and 1 of their own, will it show up as a 50% chance to get the "trial" or is there a chance you don't even see them come up on the friends list by some other rng mechanic
Also I wonder if there is a grace period that if you went inactive and get a request around 3 days after youve last opened a pack will your account be ineligible to appear in the feed for someone else completely? Cuz yeah if theres a way, people will 100% abuse this system
I was lucky to get 2 cards (1 ♦️) in the same spot they started.
i have never ever seen a god pack on wonder pick even tho i have pulled 1 myself.. 2 of our discord friend also couldnt find mine,, maybe because i pulled another packs.. i wish i know how it works sooner..
I've been playing the game everyday and have only seen 1 double star.. my luck is horrible with wonder picks.
I have not seen them even once. Lol
I see at least one a day. Might just be variance
Not trying to give myself bad luck, but i pull the good card fairly often so i dont think it's rigged
I've failed pikachu ex 3 times...
Wierd im almost always getting the cards i want rare ones or not on wonder pick
Your form is very likely going to be biased. Its self reported. Most people tend to not the take effort to fill in form if they dont see anything interesting. Also people who clicked on a video called "wonder pick rigged" is gonna be biased
All forms will have some form of bias. It's important to list biases but it doesn't mean we shouldn't even try to research.
The good news? Turns out 1 star rates were approximately correct to pack rates. Check out my next video. This comparison with 2 star being much lower than pack rates is where the problem lies.
I think 1star and 4diamond should be worth the same on this survey
I could've included 4D also but needed to keep the form clean/easy to use to actually get enough data. Complex forms won't see much use.
Originally I only planned for 2 star to be included as that's really the only thing that bothers me personally given the rarity of pulling 2 star from packs, and the shear number of them. 1 star and 4D are normally more achievable using packs.
However in the end I decided to include 1 star because it's easy to see when scrolling quickly down the WP list. 4D requires a bit more attention from a visual perspective and could get missed.
i send my wonderpick, if i not forgetting i will do this on the next day too
Day 2 send
i saw my first 2 star in a wonder pick today.
Playing since the beginning and only had 2 2 star😊
nah wonder pick is great, I have pulled on someone's God Pack, got gyarados
And at Wonder Pick I got 2 Mewtwo Ex. Its purely luck
Anyone know how to fill the 3 extra stamina slot for wonder picks?
When refilling stamina, you can press "custom select" in the bottom and fill the 3 slots too
@@misikaro cool! I didn't know that
You didn't have to make a 7 and a half minute video to tell that you don't know how probabilities and Binomial Distribution Formula works.
Lol. Exactly.
Can you explain why you think there is a binomial distribution here?
@@Bropenings binomial distribution is everywhere
@@pro100kekc I mean in answering the question of whether 2 star is rigged to lower appearance rate.
@@Bropenings Because you are talking about more than 1 trial. Since you are looking for 1 concrete succes(Availability of a 2 star in wonderpick) we have to work with the total success of at least 99%. So you can use the Binomial Distribution Formula with probability of a single outcome as 2.5%(as per your data), Total probability of 99%, number of success (x) >=1, that means at least 1 2 star pick shows up. The. You can find n which is the number of trials
me getting my desired pick 5 times in a row so far lmao
1 in 3125 chance to happen
You almost got a shiny pokemon
@@Bropenings 4 of them was a 2 or 3 diamond pick, last one was moltress EX