Introducing Time Series Analysis and forecasting

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  • Опубліковано 26 січ 2025
  • This is the first video about time series analysis. It explains what a time series is, with examples, and introduces the concepts of trend, seasonality and cycles.
    For more about time series, and using Excel for time series forecasting, see • Time Series forecastin...
    #DrNicStats #Statistics #TimeSeries

КОМЕНТАРІ • 65

  • @nataliaramirez1290
    @nataliaramirez1290 3 роки тому +11

    Thank you professor! You explained briefly something that my university professor took longer and made seem more complicated

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому +7

      Glad it helped! I think university professors can find it difficult to know how to explain things simply. I was one for 20 years, and my videos build on my experience.

    • @awesusamuel9472
      @awesusamuel9472 3 роки тому +1

      Lecturer can never come down to pace of every student. Meanwhile you'll have student who would get it more than you do.

  • @harperjmusic
    @harperjmusic 4 роки тому +9

    This is a really, really good introduction to time series data analysis. Thanks you.

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому

      Thank you - I've been teaching it for a while. You might like the one about time series in Excel as well. ua-cam.com/video/OyrheHnQLPg/v-deo.html

  • @jl_MindfulMoves
    @jl_MindfulMoves Рік тому +2

    Great intro Prof. I have a recommendation. Can you make a video comparing time series and simple regression lines. This is an excellent way to elucidate the concept of time series to individuals who are completely unfamiliar with it.

    • @borntodoit8744
      @borntodoit8744 6 місяців тому

      yes please me too
      trader here - need to balance trend channel with trends, seasonality, cycles & variation/outliers

  • @antarlinamukherjee4180
    @antarlinamukherjee4180 4 роки тому +11

    The “irregularities” has been the most relevant factor in 2020 ( and may be in 2021 as well ) 😢

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому +2

      So true! In NZ we had a bad earthquake in our census year so the census had to be moved from its usual 5 yearly interval. Forever we will need to adjust due to that. Time series really do tell stories.

  • @maddalasreevani9563
    @maddalasreevani9563 2 роки тому

    Thankyou professor!!!Loved the explanation........From India

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  2 роки тому

      Most welcome!

  • @asadali-vu1fu
    @asadali-vu1fu 4 роки тому +1

    Great Video, thanks for sharing knowledge

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому

      Most welcome

  • @maticulex5713
    @maticulex5713 Рік тому

    Well done Dr Nic. The book took 40 pages to explain what you did in 3 minutes on a video.

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  Рік тому

      Glad I could help clarify

  • @kansuryakar3646
    @kansuryakar3646 4 роки тому +5

    Fantastic explanation.
    Thank you so much
    From India

  • @maksduplicate3572
    @maksduplicate3572 3 роки тому

    the simplest yet best explanation.thanks

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому +1

      Glad it helped. Simple explanations are often more difficult to give, so being called the simplest is a high honour.

  • @raffyalo9121
    @raffyalo9121 3 роки тому +1

    Can Discuss whether or not all time-series data can be used in forecasting?

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому

      Time series data is only useful if the past is a good predictor of the future. Currently with the world facing climate change and the pandemic, much data is no longer useful for predicting.

  • @mushahidhaider3934
    @mushahidhaider3934 4 роки тому

    short & well explained ,saving the time ..thanks for such a quality of time

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому

      Glad you liked it

  • @User-fp4gn
    @User-fp4gn 2 роки тому

    1:09 those examples couldnt be more accurate today especially here in Greece Heat Gas Oil and Electricity

  • @cathmegan5490
    @cathmegan5490 3 роки тому +2

    great video. I was wondering if you could suggest a statistical test for comparing means? I have annual deforestation data for Brazil and want to compare the mean values (for each each year) over time (2000-2020) to understand if there were trends in the rates over time e.g. increasing / decreasing. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated, thanks.

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому +1

      HI Catherine. You are not actually comparing means in the statistical sense, but rather the time series happens to be mean values. The most important thing to do is graph the data. You only have 20 data points. There will not be seasonality, but you may be able to say something about the trend.

  • @HarrisProfessionalSolutions
    @HarrisProfessionalSolutions Місяць тому

    Good video thank you

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  18 днів тому

      Glad you enjoyed it

  • @somcana
    @somcana 3 роки тому

    Do you have a video on time trend analysis for health conditions at a population level. For example, diabetes .

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому

      Sorry - that is a little specific for my channel.

    • @somcana
      @somcana 3 роки тому

      @@DrNic what about general time trend statistics?

  • @psychologie7371
    @psychologie7371 2 роки тому

    Hello Dr Nic
    I want to thank you for the quality of your videos
    I'm new in data analysis and want to learn more so if you could suggest for me the playlist that i should start with
    it will help me
    thanks :)

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  2 роки тому

      We have the videos organised on our website here: creativemaths.net/videos/

  • @neehaz1
    @neehaz1 4 роки тому +1

    Dear Dr. Nick, Thank you for your videos... I want an introduction to time-series analysis to reveal dynamic or time dependent fluctuating properties wrt differences in gait cycle variability and fluctuations. Can you please suggest me some links to the related videos.

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому +1

      Sorry - this is outside my area of expertise.

    • @neehaz1
      @neehaz1 4 роки тому

      @@DrNic Thank you for reply, can you please suggest me some1 who can guide me on this?

  • @ibrahimibnumar6270
    @ibrahimibnumar6270 4 роки тому

    I have multivariante time series data where I have condition and control across time. What test should I use to know their significance between these two data.

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому

      Are you trying to find out if there is a difference between means? You might like to watch my video about statistical significance as the way you have used the word is not really valid in statistics. ua-cam.com/video/pwBW1aWic_Y/v-deo.html

  • @independent7212
    @independent7212 4 роки тому

    well explained mam...... keep posting

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому

      Thank you, I will

  • @m.reddysekhar1838
    @m.reddysekhar1838 3 роки тому

    I like your videos and it is very simple and understand and make more videos in this topic and suggest best book to learn time series, index numbers it will help for prepare my exam and lots of love from India🇮🇳 I hope u will reply for my message

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому

      I'm glad you like my videos. Sorry I don't know what book to recommend. You have given me an idea to make a video about index numbers! Have you seen this video - it is not just about Excel ua-cam.com/video/OyrheHnQLPg/v-deo.html

    • @m.reddysekhar1838
      @m.reddysekhar1838 3 роки тому

      @@DrNic thank you 🙏 for spending your valuble time for me and if you have Instagram account please tell me i can follow you it help to me

  • @tsehayenegash8394
    @tsehayenegash8394 2 роки тому

    How can I calculate annually and semiannually cycle(oscillation) of temperature data?

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  2 роки тому

      Find an academic study that has done this, and use that as your guide. I suspect you will need to use a smoothing method.

  • @athirahdayana397
    @athirahdayana397 4 роки тому

    Hi Dr Nic, I'm currently finding methods to predict future petrol oil prices for my maths assesment. May I ask which method is suitable to predict petrol oil prices?

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому +1

      It depends on whether you are taking other things into account or just using a time series of petrol prices. If it is a time series, plot it and look for seasonality and trend. If you are taking other aspects into account you will want to fit a regression line.

    • @athirahdayana397
      @athirahdayana397 4 роки тому

      @@DrNic I see! Thanks a lot Dr Nic. May I ask what are examples for other aspects?

  • @stutzyboi1585
    @stutzyboi1585 Рік тому

    10 out of 10 video

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  Рік тому

      Why thank you!

  • @JephterGama-z5f
    @JephterGama-z5f 6 місяців тому

    Nice

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 місяці тому

      Thanks

  • @aijazali6416
    @aijazali6416 4 роки тому +1

    💓👌

  • @hamayoonshah1990
    @hamayoonshah1990 4 роки тому +1

    love u Ma'm

  • @AbdulHakim-wj2hq
    @AbdulHakim-wj2hq 3 роки тому

    really thanks

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  3 роки тому

      Most welcome

  • @涵紫-w4u
    @涵紫-w4u 3 роки тому

    TQ

  • @isurusenevirathne
    @isurusenevirathne 2 роки тому

    Can you share the email pls

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  2 роки тому

      For?

    • @isurusenevirathne
      @isurusenevirathne 2 роки тому

      @@DrNic Need a support for my research

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  2 роки тому +1

      @@isurusenevirathne I’m not available - sorry.

    • @isurusenevirathne
      @isurusenevirathne 2 роки тому

      @@DrNic ok , who are the best supervisors fro time series

  • @bigyikes5112
    @bigyikes5112 4 роки тому +1

    Paywall, disliked

    • @DrNic
      @DrNic  4 роки тому +8

      I agree, it is a pity I can not provide everything for free.