Market Outlook for July 7, 2024
Вставка
- Опубліковано 25 лип 2024
- 0:00 - 6:11 Introduction
6:12 - 20:38 Economic data
20:39 - 25:54 Nominal rates
25:55 - 28:59 Real yields
29:00 - 30:08 Mortgage rates and OAS
30:09 - 51:42 New positions
51:43 - 56:58 Copper and Gold
56:59 - 1:02:16 BTC and MSTR
1:02:17 - 1:07:40 SPY
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Jobs Data:
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COMEX stocks:
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Earnings calendar at sectorspdr:
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This Week in Earnings:
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ICE Mortgage:
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SPGlobal MBS Index
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Money Market flows:
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Fed Balance Sheet:
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LINK TO S&P SPREADSHEET:
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SIFMA:
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Freddie Mortgage Rates:
www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Treasury:
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SOMA
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/so...
EFFR
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Reverse Repo
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FedWatch Tool:
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STIR analytics
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Forward Curves:
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Economic calendar:
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as always, great video. thank you!
Hey! Can you explain how PMI''s/ISM's work. As i understand it they measure by month so a PMI at 48 is alittle worse than last month. And 50 is the same as last month etc.
So since we've been below 50 since end of 2022 things must be pretty bad, even tho we've had afew above 50 lately
Thank you Dr. Mark
I am worried there will be a really bullish reaction to the first rate cut, then if (and only if) the economy continues to show weakness, people will realise there is no reason to be buying, and the markets will sell off since the fed is not cutting rates because of a strong economy and slowing inflation but because of economic weakness
😊😅😊
exactly my thoughts too, but nobody in the office shares this view..
that's my view too. we are in the late business cycle. however, my timeline is after the US election. if trump win people will cheer the tax cuts, then there'll be nothing left to cheer especially when the government is close to shutting down again
Hi Mark, I am deluged with institutional research every day from several firms as my wealth mgmt firm pays for many of these services. The sheer amount of information wears on me and puts me off looking at a lot of it. I'm mostly passive in my investing but I have L1 (and significant other financial quals) and can make sense of a 10q/k, it's just that the applied series is just currently amounting to infotainment. Do you have any idea how I could get over this hurdle - finance is all i think about, just not company analysis at the moment though it's this kind of north star i'm trying to get to. Ps. My wife likes your haircut and picked up on it before you even mentioned it.
Hello Dr Mark, I have a question that might seem silly, is there one applied level per CFA level ? I bought it at CFAL1, do I need to buy a level 2 applied level and so on ?
And I think you answered in the video, cheers !
Only need it once.
Hi Mark, I am testing some directional strategies with synthetics, and I wanted to get your thoughts on financing the call (if my time horizon is 3 months, I buy it with a 6-month expiration to take advantage of convexity) by selling 1-month puts and rolling the position 3 times to finance the call and take advantage of theta decay. Thank you
Do you still have the July BWA $35 put or did you close them out? Mine were assigned early, so I plan to wait for a run up to around $34-$35 before selling some upside calls.
I want to practice delta hedging on IBKR Paper trading and I think Tesla is a good stock to practice on. Do you know any other names to practice delta hedging?
Do you primarily use cash covered puts or uncovered puts?
Mark,
Love the Tsla slander.
1. Wanted to hear your thoughts on the overall framework you've developed in preparing and presenting research. Ex. How you were able to provide such a valuable product in the CFA prep industry. What kind of processes are you utilizing and what kind of questions are you asking yourself when carrying out the work that goes into it. Not asking about the business model, I'm seeking to understand the mental frameworks and common denominators behind individuals that provide tremendous value in their given field/specialty. I understand this comes with a lot of growth over time, trial and error, grit, etc., but what are some practical things that have worked for you, i.e., processes, systems, frameworks.
2. On the last slide, can you explain where ntm OE and EPS were pulled from.
For playing TSLA momentum, would this be a good scenario for a Call Ratio Backspread?
Mark, what are your thoughts on using options flow data as a screening tool or as a way to determine where big money is flowing into as a signal. For example, you mentioned TSLA call option buyers driving up the stock due to delta hedging. Is there a screen or specific options flow data that can be predictive of stock direction?
Hi Mark thanks for your videos, utterly enlightening!!
I passed the first level of cfa thanks to your courses and have just become a market analyst in an Consulting firm in italy, focused on commodities like gas and energy power.
I'd like to create a market outlook like yours but for the instruments we use to analyze. Our client are mostly from italy.
Do you have any advice? Like drivers, index strategy or youtube channel that maybe are analyzing the subject.
In our analysis we monitor storage level, LNG production, TTF(spot and futures) , JKM, nuclear energy power and renewable, gas demand and supply in europe and asia, political situation in europe and Arabia, ETS market for Co2 and the weather.
I'd like to add something more, any advice would be helpful.
Have a nice day,
Kind Regars,
C.S.
Congratulations 👍
Hi Dr mark, can you please elaborate how did you get the Q3 Q4 basis points cut for fed funds futures, I kind of struggled to understand that part
I was wondering what your thoughts are on European Car makers VW, Mercedes, BMW that are trading at very low valuations right now. Their brand power might not be as strong in EVs. Tariffs on Chinese EVs have been introduced but might not be sufficient or might lead to retailiation. How do you see this competitive environment playing out?
I totally get your thoughts on switching targets for Tesla from fundamentals to their investor base but is this a "first base" type trade? Is it now personal?
Have you managed to pick up any of the puts on Canadian banks that you were targeting?
Thank you for your efforts, for valuating companies skills, I want to be professional about it, also for complex cases (such as different business units in one company).
How can I get started or what is your recommendation?
Thank you
Hi Mark, you've taught us how to PM loss to elimination using call/put options (i.e., to sell calls or buy puts in the case of a long stock position). Does this same process apply for futures positions? If not, what is the best way to manage a losing position on futures? I ask because futures have added complexities such as the options being largely European style & they have contract expiry dates.
Hi Mark . Will you be doing a video on your analysis of Jackson Hole economic policy symposium outcome ? I think it will be great to hear your analysis
For someone totally new to this, what daily routine would you recommend (reading newspapers, markets or things to follow or keep an eye on etc) regardless of whether you’re in the American markets?
Hi Mark,
I ve been slowly getting into understanding financial statements by explaining each line item as you showed in your ABR's video (thanks for that). Now I'm wondering how to take the next step which is moving from just matching and understanding to actually evaluating whether those numbers are good indicators of a company's potential. Any tips or advice on how to approach this effectively?
Hi Mark. Regarding that risk reversal on XLU, the calls are quite more expensive than the calls, so you gotta go one or two strikes OTM calls (ITM puts) to make it cashless. Plus, the bid/ask sprears on XLU are pretty wide. Is it worth it over just buying the underlying?
BABE WAKE UP
Hey babe, I’m up.
Dr. Mark, can you please describe the rules you have for your theta portfolio, with examples? What does the 50% take profit rule mean? What does the 100% take loss rule mean?
Buying OTM calls in TSLA with 100% IVR and based on no fundamentals is crazy! ...im in!
Could you comment on the latest news in ABR? As of now im not touching it....
Hello Dr. Mark,
May I confirm if the 2025 l3 full access package is "one-fee-to-pass"? If I fail can I still access to the material or I have to repurchase the package.
Thanks!
I am not sure if CeriFi is continuing that feature. You will have to ask them directly.
Hello Dr. Mark
1. Why do you use $40B as the runoff rate when you calculate time to get to ample reserves? Shouldn't it be 60B (25B + 35B)?
2. There was this statement in the minutes - "median expected timing for the end of balance sheet runoff of April 2025". what does this mean?
Thank you.
Hi Mark!
A while ago, I sold a June 28th @42 put option on NEM with a premium of approximately $1.45 (I don't recall the exact amount but was close to that). The NEM options were exercised at 3 AM on June 29th, and now my average price is $40.64. If I received the premium when I sold the put option and the strike price of the option was $42, how is my average price $40.64? What am I missing here?
And how the options were exercised at 3am if the market was closed?
Thanks!
Dhi earnings coming up. Would you look at selling puts
I'm going to get the applied level bundle. Your website already figured out by itself that my account is verified. That is nice.
Could I ask, How much time do I have to go through this bundle ? Can I take my time and go over it slowly over a 1 year period ?
Thank you
There is no expiration.
How about golden ocean group? I'm down 86% and still hoping!
Can you show how you created your synthetic position in XLU?
I was wondering the same thing. I'm guessing he sold an ITM put (or put spread).
for XLU, you sold puts right? Confused about the synthetic part
He bought a call at 70 and sold a put at 70 with Mar '25 expiration, and got a credit of $0.92 for it too. That's a synthetic position - payoff is no different than going long on XLU.
@@SmallInvestor-ec4xgYep, exactly. Potential $380,000 loss lol. I did a similar trade but limited the loss potential by all selling a call and buying a put.
Sold puts and bought calls
Hi Prof, hope all is well. How do you see a potential scenario of Biden dropping out of current elections affecting the markets? Thank you,
What do you make of Lamb Weston falling another 10%? Are you still interested in this as a put target? I am seeing lots of law suit news articles on them
ABR reports on July 26. Let’s go, lads!
SectorSPDR and SPGlobal are wrong. Looks like LSEG is the winner.
Hi Mark, curious to know your thoughts on institutional strategists that are in the news and how much weight you can put on their predictions? Kolanovic of JPMorgan recently stepped down due to missing his bearish predictions and it seems like Wilson at Morgan Stanley could follow suit. Thoughts on the possibility of big bank strategists intentionally producing unalarming outlooks just so they don't become a headline and lose their job?
Also, not sure how much knowledge you have in the insurance industry but with the increasing rate in natural disasters/cat losses, what is your outlook on the smaller premium insurers who can't handle large losses and also can't handle the skyrocketing cost of reinsurance? Will they ultimately get bought out by the larger players in the industry?
Hi Mark, is there any insight you can offer on companies like Nurp that sell you an algorithmic forex trading bot that supposedly has incredible returns? If they are full of it, i'd like to understand how. Thanks!
Hi Mark, just to play devil's advocate, but couldn't ARK simply be rebalancing their portfolios since Tesla's sharp price increases caused it to be over concentrated? Probably more rules based than a change of conviction? TSLA is still ARKK's largest holding by a considerable margin. Just food for thought, thanks for the video.
Is that a cardboard box??
10 yr and 30 yr auction will add some risk for bonds as well
Are there any reason CAR.UN is trading at 0.81 Price / Book value in premium to its industry peers? ( Minto at 0.56 and Interrent at 0.69). Killam at 0.82. They all seem to have positive correlation to one another, which is expected. The only thing I can think of is just the sheer size, which may make them a more developed company, and better diversified. Perhaps the concentration of their apartment portfolio at particular geographical location can also be a factor. However, if it was about the market cap, Killam at 0.82 wouldn't make sense. Is my observation an oversight?
51:50 At last he sees the light ;-). TSLA has to be treated like a MEME stock for some time to come. Fundamentals will matter eventually but you can lose your arse trying to guess at WHEN.
Thank you as always Dr. Mark. I might actually have a personal theory on why markets keep hitting new ATH. Could it maybe be that people are waking up to the fact that slightly higher inflation is preferred given that reluctance of government to slow down spending. And in the case where we are living with higher base inflation for some time, the best place to be is equities. This probably also explains the strong commodities. Government and the fed will be there to backstop any potential slowdown or crisis, and it definitely seems we are living in financial repression. So, I am just making the devils advocate here, why not be in equities? The above scenarios seem to be a win-win for all.... (the only unfortunate case is hyper-inflation taking root or any major exogenous economy-stopping shocks, and even here-we still managed to backstop an actual global pandemic), but other than that, it's equities and commodities for the win? Again I am just making the devils advocate and laying out a thesis, cause people are smart, people see these overvalued levels by any historical measure. And they still continue, so maybe it's not an issue of skill or lack of fundamental knowledge. What do you think?
dearest Dr. Mark! thank you so much for your great content. I have been following you since 2016 and I am a CFA charter holder thanks to your amazing content. I am concerned that you may ruin your reputation by confidently misunderstanding TSLA. There are so many things you are missing about this company. Please don't get me wrong, I respect you and I wish time prove me wrong!
Hi professor mark meldrum,
I'm going through applied series quite slowly and i was wondering if you would teach the ser up for acquiring data to excel automatically using pythons/program directly from sites like Fed treasury gov, fed reserve NY, CME etc. If there is the set up, could you point it to the section where i can find it?
Hi Prof. Meldrum
Thanks for these great weekly insightful videos
I was wondering which sector is the most boring one in this economy?
I want to invest in some boring companies with solid cash flows and good dividends before the bullish sentiment changes in the USA and catch the move from growth to value.
Utilities
Going long at this moment in TSLA is stepping into the 3rd group of investors, inviting but so momentum - scary because the party could be over any time soon, and there is week fundamental to support it, why not to go long into fundamentally strong company, where the market agrees with you and operates in line with your logic?
As per your philosophy on life, do you consider an Olympic gold medalist a successful person?
So you are now not afraid anymore about extended discussion about us fiscal debt and bankruptcy? You got back to selling puts on TLT?
Do you know of a good data source that details the average kilometres driven per year for US citizens? I am trying to figure out the trend in kilometres driven since the pandemic. Just trying to do a quick analysis on whether the adoption of EV's will outweigh a potential reduction in kilometres travelled, in terms of tyre replacement.
For reference, the following study found that the tyre wear for hybrid vehicles was around 35% more than ICE vehicles. ScienceDirect "Impact of vehicle type, tyre feature and driving behaviour on tyre wear under real-world driving conditions"
Miles driven per year - FRED.
TSLA is a trade for me, not an investment.
Hey Mark, i get it that Tesla is overvalued with it's current offerings/sales, etc.. However this is what is making you biased against it, which is justified. My personal opinion, is that Musk is a very unique CEO of our modern day. A lot of Tesla's value is tied to him personally.. I remember one of your videos a few weeks ago, where you mentioned that nobody believes in Musk anymore and you specifically mentioned that the stock doesn't rally anymore of things he says...but here we are, it's up 40% in 1 week. Again my personal opinion, Tesla's value has always been high because it's speculative based on the future and it will always be that way as long as Musk remains the CEO.