Potential financial market and rand surge with ‘right-of-centre’ election outcome - Dawie Roodt
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- Опубліковано 20 тра 2024
- As the crucial 29 May elections draw near, financial markets are seemingly wagering on the ANC losing its majority and forming a coalition with right-of-centre minor parties. Dawie Roodt, an economist from the Efficient Group, shared with Biznews that the financial markets are already factoring in a favourable outcome, as evidenced by the robust performance of the JSE, bond markets and Rand. Roodt anticipates a potential surge of 20-30% for the JSE, a 200 bips gain for the bond market, and the Rand strengthening to R17 to the US dollar, should the election yield a ‘good outcome’. This scenario involves the ANC’s support falling to around 45% and the formation of a government with political parties ‘slightly to the right’ of the ANC, who would hold Cabinet positions or the role of Speaker.
However, Roodt cautions that the new government will face significant economic challenges, including local authorities that are in disarray and will likely request additional funds from the Minister of Finance, the state-owned enterprises that “have been run into the ground” and the national accounts, which have become unsustainable with debt levels ranging between 75% and 90% of GDP.
Video production by Gift Chiumia and Rex George
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If Fikile was one notch more intelligent, he would be considered as an idiot.
Pity the majority of South Africans don't understand this.
@@MasBuzo-zj6zt how far back does your view of the reflection of the mirror you should be standing in front go?
We understand that its nonsense
@@Sweets66181 the same nonsense that affects the lives of tens of millions of people.
@@MasBuzo-zj6zt Bantu Education is better then what you have now 30%er
@@MasBuzo-zj6ztgo learn the actual facts before sprouting falsehoods 🤡🤡🤡🤡
If you like the idea of living in a failed state, vote ANC, EFF, or MK. If you like the idea of eradicating corruption, crime, and poverty, as well as building a resilient and high-performaning economy (the best on the continent), then put your faith in a credible opposition party or independent. The MPC has enormous potential to right the ship.
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Why do they work so hard to crush the more conservative vote, when they clearly understand the SUCCESS resides on that provably 🤨
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This is optimism at its finest.
Excellent points raised by Dawie. To add: SA's dependence on the global oil and energy market is a serious threat to the SA economy and something that an orderly, honest, responsible government should address.
This interview, reminded me of a car salesman, selling me a car. "The tires are all flat, the engine has a crack in it, three pistons are burned out, the doors have fallen off, and the chassis is completely rusted, but.. If you get it on a steep downhill, you should get some really good kilometers out of it". I have much respect for Mr Roodt, but clearly his mixed message is mainly to appease his many investors, who he does not want to alarm over the actual state of this country. As he says, the ANC knows they are on the way out in 2028.. can you imagine the level of looting and corruption we are in for in the next 4 years.?
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Nobody ever talks about the possibility of the ANC splitting AGAIN...AFTER the elections, especially if they go with the EFF.
I suppose weakening only a little could make them rally together for a bit, but if they weaken enough, many in the party might well consider just bailing on it.
The main reason why the ANC government is not printing money is that the money printing press is also broken, like everything else where the ANC is involved in, in South Africa!
That private and independent mainly controlled by USA and UK
Whilst the reserve bank remains independent of government but they are not really privately owned. Their preference shares are owned by private individuals but they dont really manage the reserve bank.
Who interests does our reserve bank represent? Government (the people) or private individual shareholders?
Therrs only two countries in the world with an independent/private owned reserve bank USA and South Africa😢
So, they're privately owned. Did you read what you just wrote?
@@NinohBrown Actually, there are 8. US, Japan, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Greece, Turkey and South Africa.
@@dannyarcher6370 then who is our reserve bank accountable too? Do they serve interests of shareholders with high interests rates/repo rate??
Also SA is the only reserve that has foreign shareholders mostly
@@NinohBrown Their mandate is to protect the rand and guard against inflation. So, both, I suppose.
Regarding the local stock market outlook, bounce already happened. The mistake Dawie makes is to view SA as an isolated market. The US market affects all other stock markets and with USA equities at ATH's, think again before considering to buy the local market.
Dawie balling in the Western Cape.
Brilliant guest. 👌💯
Gone are the days when we believed racist white garbage and took it as fact. Theres nothing brilliant being said here but a lot of hogwash. The implicit message is SA will be in better hands under white rule. Thats bullshit.
He’s a sycophant of the reserve bank presiding over devaluation of the Rand by 8% for the past 30 years, he sees nothing wrong with this? Shameful!
Praying
Hi I meant exactly what I said. The reserve bank is a self governing body not owned by the private sector or private individuals. Set up in terms of specific legislation. The government leans on the reserve bank, ( just as the national party did) but the reserve bank has a great track record of independent actions I terms of their management.
So yes very definitely not privately controlled nor government controlled. I wonder why you find that hard to understand?
Reserve Bank is a privately owned entity 😂 of course it would have survived the onslaught! Wow 😵💫
Vote wisely!!!!
I am South African black man and I'm very much in love with the Christian inspired Israeli and Western values of Beauty and great Wealth...opulence is good very good ...if it's used to honour Jesus the Jewish Messiah and feed the poor, widow..and the needy.
Optimistically rsa can only get better,with the rest of the big world in such shite,rsa can only gurgle spit and carry on,there is lots of money,not àllways easy to find but its out there,concentrating on the big cogged drivers is our best way out,the low torqued will allways churn,babbling away with woffle cheapens rsa,spluttering and spurting negativity why,so many live so well but definitely the majority will suffer.
Mbalula...?? Mashatile...?? Mantashe.??..as President...!!😮 South Africa is really stuck between a rock and a hard place.??😢
Cr17 only,others never,donkeys all of them,old at that.
ANC in a coalition with anyone is more of the same (so nothing changes financially either - except for continued steady disintegration).
ANC won't "need" the EFF, if the opposition makes a different deal to a coalition. One such deal is to mostly stay out of the way in central government, in exchange for some devolution of power. That offers a lesser evil to just about everyone (to EFF involvement in government), and offers at least some places where other parties save parts of South Africa instead of the whole. That's about the closest to an optimistic scenario we can get to in any case where the ANC manages to hold onto power.
The problem is if we get a mpc coalition government 5 years is not long enough to fix anything the real change is coming in 2029 a weak Anc government partnering with the PA and some others is the most likely with a strong opposition will be the most likely outcome ,in 2029 the Anc will all but disappear!!!
The markets have already factored in the risk factor to the economy and if the storm is ridden then SA can have a stable and positive election outcome sans the populists and popcorn parties, the irony is the speaker knows stability occurs if the majority party remain even in a watered down 45 % , the Reserve Banks maintenance of high interest rates remain the biggest inhibitor of growth,
What exactly do you mean with right of centre, there isn't a single, remotely right wing party in SA, even the FF+ is extremely left leaning by classical definition.
It's just an expression.. To be fair even the DA is an egalitarian leftist liberal hive.. but has no communist socialist intentions.
Bif flip flop by Dawie, from being negative to all of a sudden positive? Hope he is correct
Fikile Mbalula as President?😂😂!
We've got a far right?
I trust reality, and the precedent of history in Africa. The wealthy in South Africa are removed from reality, this wave of optimism is going to turn into a sh&tstorm. There’s nothing fun at all or exciting going on in SA. This deliberate blind optimism is to save one’s own financials for as long as possible.
About 45% for the ANC could be the ideal realistic result.
This could force them into a coalition with the IFP.
This in turn forces them into a coalition with the IFP in KZN but they would still require a 3rd partner there.
With the IFP in tow this would more likely be the DA than MK.
If that happens then a coalition between the DA and ANC in Gauteng becomes feasible (with the IFP included as part of the national deal ). Lesufi will hate that idea.
That would then have a knock on effect to the current EFF/ANC coalitions in the Gauteng metros.
Of course , this is all speculation and we really can't predict too much .
Really, the ANC and IFP were sworn enemy prior to 1994, did you forget the Bisho massacre (ANC led) and the Boipatong massacre (IFP led), and ever since, e.g. the failed coalition deal between ANC and IFP in KZN (2021)!
@@johnwest2373 The IFP have already stated that they are prepared to form a coalition government with the ANC if other options fail.
Power can make bitter enemies bedfellows.
Any percentage of A&C demonstrates SA will die and starve. Impossible to have them even figure. Amazing how Roodt tries to spin the “ challenges “ not what it is - PROBLEMS
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Let’s hope there is no ‘Russian influence’ ….
😂😂😂😂thats why SA is where it is. We have mindless so called experts who spew hot air based on nothing.
Waiting for your expert opinion
@@AndrewMcFarlane_1 ask the channel to invite me then I will provide expert opinion.
everything is a mess....yet the ANC will retain majority...aaiechona
Pollyanna.
According to Proverbs the one who gathers by Labour increases..not looking out for handouts and believing fantasies as Herman Mashaba said..use your Israeli God given talent..it takes time and tears but there are no risks because the Jewish Jesus..upholds everyone who wants to help others..look how the Israeli Jesus blessed the Western countries ..He wants to do it for African child as well.. so that we can take care of His priests Israel.
196 000 world's that the Israeli God created for His honor...and the only offering that honors God is Thanksgiving...and that's Beauty and Wealth...The Jews are a great blessing to the entire world..the West is the proof of that. ❤❤❤
MK is an anc project thats why Zuma himself said he will always be anc so ANC will form a coalition with MK and sit at above 50% and everything will continue exactly as is
I fear that, for as idiotic a bunch they are, they figured out at least this much, in order to recapture the lost radicals so they can eat at the top for another 5y.
This is dooms day economist
The moon crew will crawl back to the EFF begging mark my words.
Viva ANC
?
I wanna live where Dawie lives - dayum ! 😍🐴🐎🌳⛰️⛰️
Was wondering the same
Melbourne :)
Maybe he is on holiday,looks like George