People have no idea what is coming.. which IMHO is a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. They have never read a book about finance but claim to be experts. They have no idea that 10 out of 11 times when the Fed cuts and / or the yield curve reinverts we get a recession or depression. They think that event is bullish. I am counting on most being lazy and stupid. It is going to make me very rich.
@@StephenDoty84 hahahah oh no I hear you !!! It is different it is 5 times as bad as people know. I am just waiting patiently for the market to top... using a monthly chart on the indexes ... for a bearish candle to take out at least 5 candles to the left. Once that happens. The top is in and we have IMHO a multi year leg 4 downtrend. This is going to freak lot of folks out. Not me... I am ready.
@@kgm4221 Every pay day I buy 1000 dollars worth of the SQQQs or the SRTY... not reommended for most. Those ETF eat themselves... but If I am correct... I will never have to worry about money again. The higher the marekt goes the more I buy. My max long point will be when the FED Pivots... then i will load up as much as I can buy... I might even stop paying all my bills that month (except my mortage). Again not recommended.
Car insurance claim costs are high, because cars now have so much technology in them they are very expensive to repair. Think about all the cameras now embedded in bumpers; a small bump and the plastic bumper and all tech hidden in it is pooched.
@@michaelsullivan7011 Another variable is the cost of replacement; the used car market was crazy for a while there but prices are coming down post-covid and that may help with the insurance costs.
The stage is set. Rosenberg vs. James Grant. You say interest rates will fall, he says they will remain because inflation is too sticky. Who will be more prescient looking in 2-3 years?
All western economies, since covid have done everything possible to generate inflation by lockdowns, stimulus, fraudulent business loans, tariffs, proxy wars and immigration policies, anything possible to upset the equilibrium of supply and demand vs the business cycle of inflation leads to demand distruction and recession causing deflation. In the end probably both are correct, recession, deflation, rate cuts, stimulus, rate hikes, resurgence of stagflation, 1970s style, before you know it they have debased the currency to manage debt level. What makes this plausible is recent events where bonds rates do not reflect inflation levels, fiscal repression at its best
David makes some great points for being bullish on bonds and rates. You can add the huge short interest according to the COT reports in treasuries. However, the issue I see is the foreigners backing off on purchases of treasuries. Add to that huge deficits. David's points are fundamental, but he does not address supply and demand.
You don’t understand that the biggest buyer of treasury is not foreigners.. David is saying that whale is returning.. if you don’t understand that, go short the treasuries and feel world of pain in the next 24 months.
@@shqipe333 GOLD. US citizens are not accustomed to buying gold. So when the market dumps, people will run to the Treasury for "safety." The government will always sacrifice the stock market to save the Treasury.
What he said is "historically the Fed cuts rates by 500 bps in a recession". He said he believes the Fed is maintaining higher for longer to have some dry powder for a recession, If there is no recession (there will be),.. do you think the government can afford to pay the interest on the insane debt it keeps adding to tax payer backs? Europe is already cutting rates. As he says, those who don't understand bond math,.. will miss out on huge gains on the long bonds.
I go to the grocery store, clothing stores and mechanic and i am so shocked by all the deflation. LOL - I am joking of course, consumer price inflation is so high at this point it is out of control and cannot be obfuscated. A lunch at McDonalds for a family of 4 is easily $60-$70 nowadays, its outrageous.
But even McDonalds is at least planning an 5 dollar meal again. Many have overdone it, and even valid supply shocks have driven supplier prices down. Now it's only companies dragging there feet, in order to get as much profit from the deflationary supplier prices as possible...
With all due respect to David Rosenberg, I completely disagree with him on the prospects for Utilities. Utilities profits and free cash flow have been significantly negatively impacted by the leftist Federal government push to invest into so-called "renewables". These assets are nothing else but a deadweight on the balance sheet, as they do not produce any profit. The relatively good performance of the Utilities stocks are due to the same "multiple madness", which David noted. With this destructive push into "renewables", there are no fundamentals for Utilities.
Inflation is running rampant. Deflation is only in things that people do not need. While inflation is climbing for the things we need. We have been recession since October and prices have been rising.
@bradellio - Yep. Dave's been saying this for almost 3 years. He's a brilliant mind, with an encyclopedic knowledge of the Fed and interest rate history... and I am certain, some day he will be correct, like a broken clock.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
The FED cutting to zero is not going to do anything. The 10 year yield is what matters. The Fed has no control of that. The 10 year might drop a bit when the FED cuts but it will continue to clime in higher yield after that. Folks have no idea what that means or what kind of devistation that is going to do. I am count on it. It is going to make me very rich. How the inverted yield curve reinverts matters. I think we get a bullsteepener event (bad)..
@bp -- the Fed can't control the 10 year? what if they just print and buy the 10 year? And keep buying. The BOJ owns most Japanese sovereign debt -- and bought it, to suppress rates. The Fed could do the same thing.
@@charlesbrown9213 That is a great question and one most folks are not smart enought to ask. I think that is exactly what happens. No foreign buys of the debt the FED will come in and buy it (montize it) as the buyer of last resort. This will make the dollars purchasing power go down and said another way inflation to go up. They are stuck, they know they are stuck. There is really no good way out of this mess. We crash, they stimulate ... by doing what I just said. That sends us into hyperinflation or worse stagflation. Should be wonderful.
"C limate change is a cause of Home Insurance rising." GTFO! really? Also, what about the bank loss write downs that will occur due to commercial real estate collapse?
You can't have a balanced understanding of the markets without hearing from David Rosenberg. 👍
Rosenberg’s predictions are very useful if you want to know what will not happen
Let's go, David! The best economist to listen to right now. Great interview.
This is not an earnings driven stock market. It's a buy back and liquidity driven market. Again, supply and demand vs. fundamentals.
Man Rosenberg is good. He's very good.
david thanks to david
The only financial analyst that works from a book shop.
Luv today's post. It's always a pleasure to have David speak his mind. He did today. Why isn't he my Grandpa?
I switched from eating wild salmon and ribeye steaks to eating chicken drum sticks and chicken thighs that’s deflation
Yeah, I know another guy who went from living 'high off the hog' to pig's feet.
Two of the best Daves.
Unless the gov can cut fiscal spending, all of this inflation fighting will lead nowhere.
Great interview!!
Makes me laugh that folks don’t think that economies are not in recession territory already - people are being massively gaslit
People have no idea what is coming.. which IMHO is a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. They have never read a book about finance but claim to be experts. They have no idea that 10 out of 11 times when the Fed cuts and / or the yield curve reinverts we get a recession or depression. They think that event is bullish. I am counting on most being lazy and stupid. It is going to make me very rich.
@@bpb5541 Didn't you hear? 'This time it's different'. ;)
@@StephenDoty84 hahahah oh no I hear you !!! It is different it is 5 times as bad as people know. I am just waiting patiently for the market to top... using a monthly chart on the indexes ... for a bearish candle to take out at least 5 candles to the left. Once that happens. The top is in and we have IMHO a multi year leg 4 downtrend. This is going to freak lot of folks out. Not me... I am ready.
@@bpb5541 How did you prepare?
@@kgm4221 Every pay day I buy 1000 dollars worth of the SQQQs or the SRTY... not reommended for most. Those ETF eat themselves... but If I am correct... I will never have to worry about money again. The higher the marekt goes the more I buy. My max long point will be when the FED Pivots... then i will load up as much as I can buy... I might even stop paying all my bills that month (except my mortage). Again not recommended.
Car insurance claim costs are high, because cars now have so much technology in them they are very expensive to repair. Think about all the cameras now embedded in bumpers; a small bump and the plastic bumper and all tech hidden in it is pooched.
True except the average vehicle age is 15 years and insurance for everyone has soared regardless of how old your car is
@@michaelsullivan7011 Another variable is the cost of replacement; the used car market was crazy for a while there but prices are coming down post-covid and that may help with the insurance costs.
The stage is set. Rosenberg vs. James Grant.
You say interest rates will fall, he says they will remain because inflation is too sticky.
Who will be more prescient looking in 2-3 years?
All western economies, since covid have done everything possible to generate inflation by lockdowns, stimulus, fraudulent business loans, tariffs, proxy wars and immigration policies, anything possible to upset the equilibrium of supply and demand vs the business cycle of inflation leads to demand distruction and recession causing deflation. In the end probably both are correct, recession, deflation, rate cuts, stimulus, rate hikes, resurgence of stagflation, 1970s style, before you know it they have debased the currency to manage debt level. What makes this plausible is recent events where bonds rates do not reflect inflation levels, fiscal repression at its best
David makes some great points for being bullish on bonds and rates. You can add the huge short interest according to the COT reports in treasuries. However, the issue I see is the foreigners backing off on purchases of treasuries. Add to that huge deficits. David's points are fundamental, but he does not address supply and demand.
Where are these foreigners going to go? France? China? Russia? US is the only place to go.
You don’t understand that the biggest buyer of treasury is not foreigners.. David is saying that whale is returning.. if you don’t understand that, go short the treasuries and feel world of pain in the next 24 months.
@@shqipe333 GOLD. US citizens are not accustomed to buying gold. So when the market dumps, people will run to the Treasury for "safety." The government will always sacrifice the stock market to save the Treasury.
@@shqipe333 Perhaps the new BRICs currency.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
> do you still believe they will cut to zero
>> yes
>> I'm not gonna say they will cut to zero
this guy has been very wrong
What he said is "historically the Fed cuts rates by 500 bps in a recession".
He said he believes the Fed is maintaining higher for longer to have some dry powder for a recession,
If there is no recession (there will be),.. do you think the government can afford to pay the interest on the insane debt it keeps adding to tax payer backs?
Europe is already cutting rates.
As he says, those who don't understand bond math,.. will miss out on huge gains on the long bonds.
I only eat beans and rice
I'm eating out of a can of Bruce's yams right now...
I go to the grocery store, clothing stores and mechanic and i am so shocked by all the deflation. LOL - I am joking of course, consumer price inflation is so high at this point it is out of control and cannot be obfuscated. A lunch at McDonalds for a family of 4 is easily $60-$70 nowadays, its outrageous.
But even McDonalds is at least planning an 5 dollar meal again. Many have overdone it, and even valid supply shocks have driven supplier prices down. Now it's only companies dragging there feet, in order to get as much profit from the deflationary supplier prices as possible...
@@Alexander-dr4mwits gougeflation, which was destined to fail with reduced demand
@@jimbobarooney2861No it wasn't. That was a story made up by the gov.
@@Alexander-dr4mw simply not true. The CRB index which tracks basket of commodities is at a 10 year high and looks ready to break out.
Deflation in 2025 not now. Just wait and watch. Current inflation is artificial. Demand and Supply artificially.
Two decimal places for a number that is hiding substantial dysfunction. That makes perfect sense in clown world (the consumer is the clown).
With all due respect to David Rosenberg, I completely disagree with him on the prospects for Utilities. Utilities profits and free cash flow have been significantly negatively impacted by the leftist Federal government push to invest into so-called "renewables". These assets are nothing else but a deadweight on the balance sheet, as they do not produce any profit. The relatively good performance of the Utilities stocks are due to the same "multiple madness", which David noted. With this destructive push into "renewables", there are no fundamentals for Utilities.
Inflation is running rampant. Deflation is only in things that people do not need. While inflation is climbing for the things we need. We have been recession since October and prices have been rising.
Rates down to zero and then again crazy inflation, I don't think so.
He doesn't think i inflation is the expansion of money and credit
That mistake will make him very wrong
But he sure seems confident
This is fantasyland. Inflation is 1.9%? Maybe you should start buying your own groceries, pumping your own gas, paying your own credit card bills?
Eventually he may be right...not in the last two years though...so far he has been the ultimate fade along with dan the man nathan
@bradellio - Yep. Dave's been saying this for almost 3 years. He's a brilliant mind, with an encyclopedic knowledge of the Fed and interest rate history... and I am certain, some day he will be correct, like a broken clock.
David’s last prediction was the Dow would be thousands of points lower. 100% wrong
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
please educate me, I’ve come across this name before, Now i'm interested.
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I read about her too on the website. That is how I get connected to her. Thanks for putting this down here
Francine Duguay is outstanding. The knowledge you will gain is for a life time.
Long bond ftw disinflation approaches!
No deflation, hyperinflation. You are all wrong!
The FED cutting to zero is not going to do anything. The 10 year yield is what matters. The Fed has no control of that. The 10 year might drop a bit when the FED cuts but it will continue to clime in higher yield after that. Folks have no idea what that means or what kind of devistation that is going to do. I am count on it. It is going to make me very rich. How the inverted yield curve reinverts matters. I think we get a bullsteepener event (bad)..
@bp -- the Fed can't control the 10 year? what if they just print and buy the 10 year? And keep buying. The BOJ owns most Japanese sovereign debt -- and bought it, to suppress rates. The Fed could do the same thing.
@@charlesbrown9213 That is a great question and one most folks are not smart enought to ask. I think that is exactly what happens. No foreign buys of the debt the FED will come in and buy it (montize it) as the buyer of last resort. This will make the dollars purchasing power go down and said another way inflation to go up. They are stuck, they know they are stuck. There is really no good way out of this mess. We crash, they stimulate ... by doing what I just said. That sends us into hyperinflation or worse stagflation. Should be wonderful.
"C limate change is a cause of Home Insurance rising." GTFO! really? Also, what about the bank loss write downs that will occur due to commercial real estate collapse?
His take on insurances is complete BS.