Honestly, this is better than my entire financial course package from University... Unreal how much college costs when you've got this kind of FREE quality here. Thank you, Mark!
Everything good goes behind a paywall at some point, I won’t complain but instead take the opportunity to thank you for all the knowledge shared! Hats off to you Mark
Please keep posting the applied series on UA-cam. Your content has been very helpful to me but I cannot afford to subscribe. And I like to share your videos to educate others, I can't if they're behind a paywall.
Hi Mark, I wanted to add a few things regarding your comments on inflation (headline, core, and core core). OER is 30% of the Core CPI calculation, and 24% of the reported CPI. The problem with OER is that it relies on survey data from owners to estimate inflation in housing costs ... this makes it extremely inaccurate and imprecise. The largest companies that own single family rentals reported 17% YoY rent increases but OER in reported CPI was only 3.5 YoY, which vastly understates the true YoY change. If we use the more accurate source of data (largest companies of single family rental owners). Core CPI would increase from 4.9% to 9.0% and CPI from 6.8% to 10.1%. Cheers
Hi Mark, would love to see a video about how you analyze a potential position, i.e. how you would go through the company financials, what you would be looking for, and how you make the decision to invest or not. There is alot of financial information about each company, so if you could provide insight into what exactly you are looking for, and any ratios that you like to calculate. TIA!
Thanks for the video. Have you ever considered making a video about risk management with using margin? It really isn't explicitly covered in the curriculum, but would be extremely helpful to learn about before accidentally blowing up my account.
@@MarkMeldrum I think you are underestimating the pent up demand from past and present students. I am certain Ausi buyers like myself who have been waiting for the past years will happily pay double or triple the CAD25 price to cover postage. I would recommend you could do a survey online at your website or Reddit for International delivery option and see the result.
Thanks Dr. Mark! Quick question on the announcement at the end though - is there a way I can purchase a subscription just to these applied market videos? I'd hate to lose access to them, but I've already completed the program (with your help).
We will most likely include them in with the L3 archive. So as long as you completed L3 with us and have the archive, I think we are just going to put them there for now.
@@MarkMeldrum Hi Mark, I have been following the applied series and love the content. I have no interest in the exam prep. Any way for me to access these in the future?
@@MarkMeldrum @Mark Meldrum Hello Mark, there's a lot unreliable information on the internet these days. Your opinion is greatly valued and appreciated. Would you consider releasing the applied series content for a subscription fee for those of us not taking the exams. I'd buy it.
Hi Mark, Thank you for this market outlook, we love it ! Just opened the short call option strategy on TLT. As a subscriber, it feels great to apply what you teach us!
Thanks Dr. Mark. Can you help me understand why TLT and not a shorter duration bond ETF if high inflation is only expected to persist into the near future?
Duration is a sensitivity, not a measure of time. Low duration means low sensitivity to changes in rates. I want a high sensitivity. Rates are going up, so bond prices are going down.
www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield Scroll down to second paragraph after the table: Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates: These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Par real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily par real yield curve. These par real yields are calculated from indicative secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The par real yield values are read from the par real yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a par real yield for a 10-year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity.
Once applied series is no longer on UA-cam, how can a past subscriber still get access to them?? Asking from someone who did all three levels with you!! Would be happy to pay a monthly subscription fee for regular applied content from you
Dr. Mark.. Can you tell us how you came up with the margin requirement of $14250 and 4550 for the option legs? Did your broker show that to you or is there a math that is applied by each broker so we can plan this strategy like you did?
The archives do end after you complete level 3. They are only for candidates with an active subscription, and to help aid in reviewing prior level content. Once you are complete, there is no reason for the archive.
Dr Meldrum, For someone who does not live in the US or Canada, some of us might need guidance to financial products that mimick or are similar to the calls/puts. We can only buy or sell stock/etf. I know we can maybe use put-call parity and borrow to buy stock, but are there other etfs/financial products that can help those of us who cannot participate in the options market in the US?
Hi Mark, Do you have some process by which you arrive at stocks like GM that would be good candidates for "wheeling" with options? Do you look for a certain implied volatility, coupled with good financials, and a stable price history? I'm thinking if there is a way one can set up a stock screener to discover stocks like GM, that would be good candidates for these option strategies.
hi Mark, the GM friday expire position that you are happy that it stay below 60 , what kind of position is that? 55/60 strangle? i thought you said that was a synthetic
@@MarkMeldrum hi Mark what's your thoughts on Garmin? would it get you interested in doing any videos about it? whether FRA related or option positions on Garmin?
Hey mark! You said you weren’t sure why usd was showing strength vs cad. Oil has been slipping recently though, while we’ve seen vix pops and choppiness. If we are to see a volatile choppy market going forward fueling a less risk-on environment, fed hawkishness clamping demand maybe a bit?(oil could drop further then too), then you don’t think there’s a case for USD? I know your opinion of technical analysis too but the chart looks ready to test 1.30 which is a big level and the weekly chart looks like it has a solid uptrend going. I do agree with your fundamental points about the Canadian economy though, definitely a tough market to figure out for someone paid in USD living in Canada 👍🏽 Great work on the video!
36:05 - Will wages growth have a mixed effect on inflation given you mentioned it will "solve" the supply issue which dampens inflation, but could that potentially lead to an inflationary spiral if employees bid up prices because they can now afford to?
@@MarkMeldrum ah got you np. I do not want to gove you anymore hassle but id be willing to pay for the shipping if that would help. Id genuinely love one. I can email you on the site. But only if it is possible, I do not want to cause any hassle. Anyway thanks for everything.
@@MarkMeldrum I definately will. A good cause plus the guidance/motivation your content has given me it is the least I can do. They are cool baseball hats too. Thank you Professor.
Thank you for the video. However, this time last year (7 December 2020) you only mentioned you sold January 2022 GM puts struck at 40 for a premium of 5.60. Did you mention 60 puts somewhere else by any chance?
@@MarkMeldrum This seems to go against what you said a year ago - you explained you were selling 1y vs 2m puts so that you don't have to roll over into increasingly higher strikes in case the stock moves up: ua-cam.com/video/MQp_Hqi02NA/v-deo.html This would imply you'd not be selling separate new, higher-strike puts next to the existing position either.
There is little value sitting on 40 puts when the underlying goes above 50. I sell puts on every sell-off, and sell calls on every rally. I have a short strangle for 2023 at the 80/90 strikes. That does not mean I will not do anything else. Nor does it imply that I will inform everybody when I do something else.
@@MarkMeldrum Nevertheless, it would be interesting to hear of bad trading decisions in hindsight as well. I personally found I can learn a lot more from those than from stuff that has gone smoothly.
Hello, Mark! Long-term follower here. I'm trying to understand the rationale behind shorting TLT (duration). Is it due to your belief that yields are going to go up, therefore the price of TLT is going to go down? As I understand it, TLT is an ETF that tracks an index composed of 20+ year treasury bonds so as yields go up the bonds should lose value but do they re-balance the portfolio by purchasing new bonds at the current yields?
Hi Dr Mark, I wrote level 2 in 21Nov (hopefully i pass) and i used your course, but i have no plan doing level 3 in 2022 (most likely try Feb 2023), so 2 questions: anyway i can still watch your apply series, when can i buy prep for Feb 2023 exam window on your site. Thanks in advance!
Dr. Mark, what are your thought on the national debt? If Fed has to hike rates, with the unprecedented US. debt amount, the government has to raise more tax to make debt payments, at that point, we have double headwinds from both the fiscal end and the monetary end, isn't that concerning for equities? Love to hear your thought, thank you.
Hi Mark (or anyone else who can answer the question) - please can you explain your use of the forward P/E ratio in forecasting the S&P500? Would the trailing P/E not be better? or at least if you are using the forward P/E should you not use 2023 forecasted earnings to come up with a price target for 2022?
Thank you Dr Mark for the amazing video. I’ve been following the applied series for a long while. You rarely talk about trade on fix income. I am wondering would you be able show us how duration is applied in the real market? Here is my understanding, With 20 years treasury bond, duration is long and small changes of interest rate have a bigger impact on price. When you sell a call at 135 for TLT, your target is TLT will go down below 135, or implied a rate increase. When rate increases, will money flow out from equity into TLT? Another thing hope you could show, you mentioned about 3 month t bill. I looked at etf and noticed the expenses ratio is higher than the yield, so would you still consider that to park your cash? Or I am looking at a wrong etf? Thank you 🙏
you said sideways market but you're buying long spy? idkkkk I was hoping for way cooler play. whoever you sold that put to is going to take you to school btw.
Ah yes, the Warren Buffet style. I understand he is ready to buy any company that displays a 33% Fibonacci retracement from the second up-leg of an Elliot wave.
Revisiting this in 2023 for education
FINALLY :) Couldn't have asked for a better Christmas gift. Thank you for sharing!
Dr Mark please keep doing these vids, especially for us subscribers. These are pure gold.
Honestly, this is better than my entire financial course package from University... Unreal how much college costs when you've got this kind of FREE quality here. Thank you, Mark!
Everything good goes behind a paywall at some point, I won’t complain but instead take the opportunity to thank you for all the knowledge shared! Hats off to you Mark
Please keep posting the applied series on UA-cam. Your content has been very helpful to me but I cannot afford to subscribe. And I like to share your videos to educate others, I can't if they're behind a paywall.
Been waiting for a video like this, can’t wait to dive deep into it!! Thanks for all the great contact Dr. Mark
Thanks Dr. Mark. A membership in MM website is worth these practical videos on a weekly basis.
I am not promising a weekly edition. I do these when I have the time.
Hi Mark, I wanted to add a few things regarding your comments on inflation (headline, core, and core core). OER is 30% of the Core CPI calculation, and 24% of the reported CPI. The problem with OER is that it relies on survey data from owners to estimate inflation in housing costs ... this makes it extremely inaccurate and imprecise. The largest companies that own single family rentals reported 17% YoY rent increases but OER in reported CPI was only 3.5 YoY, which vastly understates the true YoY change. If we use the more accurate source of data (largest companies of single family rental owners). Core CPI would increase from 4.9% to 9.0% and CPI from 6.8% to 10.1%.
Cheers
Hi Mark, would love to see a video about how you analyze a potential position, i.e. how you would go through the company financials, what you would be looking for, and how you make the decision to invest or not. There is alot of financial information about each company, so if you could provide insight into what exactly you are looking for, and any ratios that you like to calculate. TIA!
Thanks for the video. Have you ever considered making a video about risk management with using margin? It really isn't explicitly covered in the curriculum, but would be extremely helpful to learn about before accidentally blowing up my account.
Second that idea
Thank you for the video, this always keeps me motivated to keep studying.
Hi Mark, how can charterholders access the applied series going forward if it's only going to be on your site?
For those that completed Level 3 with us, we are most likely going to include them in with the archive for now.
Please add international sales for the hats. There is lot of demand in Australia. :)
Yup.. would love to buy them
Shipping - hugely expensive. That’s the problem.
@@MarkMeldrum I think you are underestimating the pent up demand from past and present students. I am certain Ausi buyers like myself who have been waiting for the past years will happily pay double or triple the CAD25 price to cover postage. I would recommend you could do a survey online at your website or Reddit for International delivery option and see the result.
Thanks Dr. Mark! Quick question on the announcement at the end though - is there a way I can purchase a subscription just to these applied market videos? I'd hate to lose access to them, but I've already completed the program (with your help).
We will most likely include them in with the L3 archive. So as long as you completed L3 with us and have the archive, I think we are just going to put them there for now.
@@MarkMeldrum Hi Mark, I have been following the applied series and love the content. I have no interest in the exam prep. Any way for me to access these in the future?
@@MarkMeldrum @Mark Meldrum Hello Mark, there's a lot unreliable information on the internet these days. Your opinion is greatly valued and appreciated. Would you consider releasing the applied series content for a subscription fee for those of us not taking the exams. I'd buy it.
Hi Mark,
Thank you for this market outlook, we love it ! Just opened the short call option strategy on TLT. As a subscriber, it feels great to apply what you teach us!
Your insights are always a welcome sight in my feed! Thanks doctor.
Hi Mark, when you discuss these new positions, what amount of your portfolio do you use on these strategies?
This is awesome!!
Thanks Dr. Mark. Can you help me understand why TLT and not a shorter duration bond ETF if high inflation is only expected to persist into the near future?
Duration is a sensitivity, not a measure of time. Low duration means low sensitivity to changes in rates. I want a high sensitivity. Rates are going up, so bond prices are going down.
@@MarkMeldrum Thanks Dr. Mark I should've remembered this from L3!
8:30 how do we get the real yield numbers?? Why is 5-yr real yield is negative 1.51？
www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield
Scroll down to second paragraph after the table:
Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates: These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Par real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily par real yield curve. These par real yields are calculated from indicative secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The par real yield values are read from the par real yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a par real yield for a 10-year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity.
Once applied series is no longer on UA-cam, how can a past subscriber still get access to them?? Asking from someone who did all three levels with you!! Would be happy to pay a monthly subscription fee for regular applied content from you
We will most likely make the applied series as a part of the Level 3 archive.
What if you have the level 2 archive will you still be able to access the applied series.
Once you register for L3 you will.
@@MarkMeldrum oh okay bummer since not taking l3 till 2023
Thank you so much Professor! I was waiting for this video!
Dr. Mark.. Can you tell us how you came up with the margin requirement of $14250 and 4550 for the option legs? Did your broker show that to you or is there a math that is applied by each broker so we can plan this strategy like you did?
Is it still possible to buy the hat, preferably with your signature on it?
Use Contact Us on the site.
Hi Mark,
If we completed level 3 with you do we still get access to your archive of videos?
Thanks!
The archives do end after you complete level 3. They are only for candidates with an active subscription, and to help aid in reviewing prior level content. Once you are complete, there is no reason for the archive.
We will have an alternative solution for this.
Dr Meldrum, For someone who does not live in the US or Canada, some of us might need guidance to financial products that mimick or are similar to the calls/puts. We can only buy or sell stock/etf. I know we can maybe use put-call parity and borrow to buy stock, but are there other etfs/financial products that can help those of us who cannot participate in the options market in the US?
@Mark Meldrum Hi Mark, why if inflation is 6% then wages have to rise 9% to match it?
You would need about a 9% wage hike, so that after-tax, you take home 6%.
@@MarkMeldrum but why? If my gross salary goes up by 6% then after tax it will be 6% up as well, not?
Hi Mark,
Do you have some process by which you arrive at stocks like GM that would be good candidates for "wheeling" with options? Do you look for a certain implied volatility, coupled with good financials, and a stable price history? I'm thinking if there is a way one can set up a stock screener to discover stocks like GM, that would be good candidates for these option strategies.
hi Mark, the GM friday expire position that you are happy that it stay below 60 , what kind of position is that? 55/60 strangle? i thought you said that was a synthetic
I sold Dec 60 calls 2 months ago.
@@MarkMeldrum hi Mark what's your thoughts on Garmin? would it get you interested in doing any videos about it? whether FRA related or option positions on Garmin?
Hey mark! You said you weren’t sure why usd was showing strength vs cad. Oil has been slipping recently though, while we’ve seen vix pops and choppiness. If we are to see a volatile choppy market going forward fueling a less risk-on environment, fed hawkishness clamping demand maybe a bit?(oil could drop further then too), then you don’t think there’s a case for USD? I know your opinion of technical analysis too but the chart looks ready to test 1.30 which is a big level and the weekly chart looks like it has a solid uptrend going. I do agree with your fundamental points about the Canadian economy though, definitely a tough market to figure out for someone paid in USD living in Canada 👍🏽 Great work on the video!
36:05 - Will wages growth have a mixed effect on inflation given you mentioned it will "solve" the supply issue which dampens inflation, but could that potentially lead to an inflationary spiral if employees bid up prices because they can now afford to?
Thanks Dr Meldrum!
Thanks Dr. MM
Hi Professor are the hats still confined to Canada/ US? Can I buy one from Ireland?
Shipping overseas is ridiculously expensive.
@@MarkMeldrum ah got you np. I do not want to gove you anymore hassle but id be willing to pay for the shipping if that would help. Id genuinely love one. I can email you on the site. But only if it is possible, I do not want to cause any hassle. Anyway thanks for everything.
Ok, you can e-mail Tara through the site. She can get a quote for the shipping cost for you. Then you can decide.
@@MarkMeldrum I definately will. A good cause plus the guidance/motivation your content has given me it is the least I can do. They are cool baseball hats too. Thank you Professor.
Hi Dr. Mark, what do you think of Chinese tech stocks? AliBaba for example is down more than 50%, is there an opportunity there?
Thank you for the video. However, this time last year (7 December 2020) you only mentioned you sold January 2022 GM puts struck at 40 for a premium of 5.60. Did you mention 60 puts somewhere else by any chance?
Sold 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70 and 80s as the price increased. You have to move with the underlying.
@@MarkMeldrum This seems to go against what you said a year ago - you explained you were selling 1y vs 2m puts so that you don't have to roll over into increasingly higher strikes in case the stock moves up: ua-cam.com/video/MQp_Hqi02NA/v-deo.html
This would imply you'd not be selling separate new, higher-strike puts next to the existing position either.
There is little value sitting on 40 puts when the underlying goes above 50. I sell puts on every sell-off, and sell calls on every rally. I have a short strangle for 2023 at the 80/90 strikes. That does not mean I will not do anything else. Nor does it imply that I will inform everybody when I do something else.
@@MarkMeldrum Nevertheless, it would be interesting to hear of bad trading decisions in hindsight as well. I personally found I can learn a lot more from those than from stuff that has gone smoothly.
Спасибо
Hello, Mark! Long-term follower here.
I'm trying to understand the rationale behind shorting TLT (duration). Is it due to your belief that yields are going to go up, therefore the price of TLT is going to go down? As I understand it, TLT is an ETF that tracks an index composed of 20+ year treasury bonds so as yields go up the bonds should lose value but do they re-balance the portfolio by purchasing new bonds at the current yields?
Higher yields = lower prices.
You can also sell ZB, the 30-yr futures, or ZN, the 10-yr would most likely have higher bps moves.
@@MarkMeldrum that's what I thought. Thanks for clearing it up!
Hi Mark, you said central bank activity cant solve inflation. Did you always believe that or did your opinion change recently?
Re-listen. I said CB activity can’t solve THIS inflation. Not all inflation.
Perfect Timing!!!
Hi Dr Mark, I wrote level 2 in 21Nov (hopefully i pass) and i used your course, but i have no plan doing level 3 in 2022 (most likely try Feb 2023), so 2 questions: anyway i can still watch your apply series, when can i buy prep for Feb 2023 exam window on your site. Thanks in advance!
Feb 2023 opens in June 2022
Applied series will be with L3, or within the Applied Options course
Dr. Mark, what are your thought on the national debt? If Fed has to hike rates, with the unprecedented US. debt amount, the government has to raise more tax to make debt payments, at that point, we have double headwinds from both the fiscal end and the monetary end, isn't that concerning for equities? Love to hear your thought, thank you.
Already did a video called US Debt is no big deal
Mark, how can you be sure you wont get exercised against when selling deep in the money puts on American options in the SPY?
What would it matter? With $20 of TV, I could sell the assigned stock, make a quick $2000 per contract, then do it again.
Hi Mark (or anyone else who can answer the question) - please can you explain your use of the forward P/E ratio in forecasting the S&P500? Would the trailing P/E not be better? or at least if you are using the forward P/E should you not use 2023 forecasted earnings to come up with a price target for 2022?
Target price in one year, not price today. So use the forward earnings.
Right after your video sir, Goldman released their target for snp 500 at 5100!
Yeeeaaahhhhhh!!!
There's gonna be wage inflation for IT people but flat for Finance people because too many CFAs in Toronto :(
Thank you Dr Mark for the amazing video. I’ve been following the applied series for a long while. You rarely talk about trade on fix income. I am wondering would you be able show us how duration is applied in the real market? Here is my understanding, With 20 years treasury bond, duration is long and small changes of interest rate have a bigger impact on price. When you sell a call at 135 for TLT, your target is TLT will go down below 135, or implied a rate increase. When rate increases, will money flow out from equity into TLT? Another thing hope you could show, you mentioned about 3 month t bill. I looked at etf and noticed the expenses ratio is higher than the yield, so would you still consider that to park your cash? Or I am looking at a wrong etf? Thank you 🙏
i finished the cfa program, how do i watch the applied series while being as none subscriber?
www.markmeldrum.com/product-category/applied-courses/
thanks for sharing your positions. you might want to get more into crypto though.
you said sideways market but you're buying long spy? idkkkk I was hoping for way cooler play. whoever you sold that put to is going to take you to school btw.
I don’t think you understood what I said.
Nobody knows the future, just trade the charts.
Ah yes, the Warren Buffet style. I understand he is ready to buy any company that displays a 33% Fibonacci retracement from the second up-leg of an Elliot wave.