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just tapping into my fear thinking but once AGI and robotics are here fully and when we reflect on how brutal the ruling class is and how they use everyone else - do we really think they will want to keep billions of resource using 'useless eaters' around - I predict a virus will spread that only the chosen ones will be vaccinated against and Covid was a practice run.
those top people are lying, they have vested interests in keeping it from the public, it does already exist. ur a good youtuber but don't drink the kool-aid. seriously read Gato a generalist agent. its a direct path to AGI.
Let's also look at the definition of artificial general intelligence.It's classified as a system capable of performing any task.A human can perform. That does not specify that it will immediately be know how to do so just that it will be capable of doing so. Well what do humans do..... We have five senses as input , which can all be mapped out to neural networks and applied to avatars, And we have three output the ability to speak the ability to Interact with objects and the environment and navigate that environment. So five inputs and three outputs. Given the proper cognitive model it's artificial general intelligence. That can be built today and is being built.Currently has been built multiple times by these industry companies
@@erobusblack4856 AI will never have consciousness and will always just be a algorithmic tool. Its nothing special. People are delusional and have watched too many Hollywood movies. There is literally nothing that suggest AGI, defined as a machine having a conscious observer, will ever happen. ZERO. NIX. NADA.
But descentralized systems, ethical hackers and tech activists can make a significant impact towards social justice within the grounds of AGI. Don't ever lose hope, we can be agents of change if we really want to. What's life if we don't fight back??
You are such narrow minded and short sighted that it put an iron chain on your life. Look at the human history, man. We lived through it in corruptions. Did we evolve? Didn't we achieve what we have today?
Do you have good evidence that points to that being the case? The real issue is that most of the benefits of the information revolution hasn't bled over into the old industrial paradigm, but in the information sphere, all of us have access to smart phones for a reasonable price that are better than main frame computers of the 1980's. We all have access to GPT4 essentially free, and people get rich without restricting that tech. So, there can be the very rich, but if 3d printing can help with housing construction, vertical farming grows food cheaper than now, using 1/10th the water and space, regenerative medicine powered by A.I. powered accelerated research with dropping prices combined with better quality, then there is no reason why all the rich of the world would get together and deliberately conspire to withhold all of the new tech, just to be mean to the rest of us. Plus, many of the rich will make billions from all the new tech that becomes cheaper and better, and even in those fields, if you have a competitive marketplace, well then that will be a group of billionaires that will not go along with a cabal to withhold the benefits of tech just because they might be malefactors that hate humanity.
Like in Neuromancer by Wm. Gibson. The cyber-world and the ‘slow world’ which is life as we regular people know it. AGI will change shit-all for regular people because the pursuit of power that is not directed at alleviating suffering will increase it the those left out, the majority.
More likely, after billions and billions are spent, we realise that AGI is a pipe dream and all we have is a better calculator. The loss of jobs will be due not to AGI, but due to the diverting of resources from more pressing problems, problems which don’t have purely technical solutions.
Exactly. She didnt mention anything about online privacy, the UBI will be our only source of income so we must comply 100% to the govs/global elite or else
All forms of governance in the past where very small group had absolute power ended in places where masses were subjected to all kinds of unfair policies. Even if it seems good or even actually good in the beginning, it will eventually become dystopia since: 1. Leaders with the best intentions eventually die or change. 2. There are always sociopaths who strive for dystopian environment for their own expediency. They will remove all obstacles, even leaders/kings for this with all the resources they have. Which btw seems to be the case for most world leaders currently, if not all.
@@cafelatte1124 Its not a case of sociopathy but reality. In business, you compete to overwhelm the competitor so its natural AI will be developed to destroy competition;. Business is tough, risk is painful if it fails, there are no friends in business, only foes. Once BRICS and the G7 starts to compete and say, China competes with US businesses, Indian businesses compete with European businesses, Russian businesses compete with Chinese businesses, AI will be used to destroy. Once AI takes on a warlike use, Terminator next.
@@stanmcmahan8050 I think most will go bar the owners of capital. Lawyers wont be needed, nor will doctors etc. The movie that most realistically posits a world run by machines is Blade Runner the 1st one. All throughout history, all good ideas have been turned to selfish reasons, so why will this one be different. I think the podcaster is naive if she thinks utopia will emerge from this for all.
Agreed. Once we hit the bottom of the exponential vertical, it could be only hours. I find it interesting that even the best minds in the field believe our feeble attempts at regulation and safety could work.
OpenAI o1 Preview-released yesterday and already doing PhD-level math, science, and coding-has definitely shifted the timeline forward. It's not perfect (how could it be?), but it demonstrates that a timeline like 2027 for AGI is actually conservative at this point. I appreciate you talking about the issue of benchmarking. Even now o1 Preview is causing arguments as human experts disagree about the correct answers to certain very hard problems. Benchmarking is going to get more and more challenging as these systems continue to rush past the hardest problems we humans can propose and solve. Your primary focus is right on target: we need to prepare now for what's coming rather than finding ourselves swamped in a sea of social and economic change caused by a collapse in the remunerative value of human labor (both manual and intellectual). Thank you for the video! 🥂
They will never do something that we haven't already done in their current form. No matter how much compute is thrown at them. They are only probability predictors.
@@ploppyploppy They can do things so much faster than us that they will be doing trillions of things no human ever had time to get around to exploring. Just like the protein folding systems they will accelerate research findings by orders of magnitude. And because they have cross-domain expertise (like biology plus physics plus chemistry at above PhD levels) they can make breakthroughs no single human expert ever could. Your cope is sounding more and more absurd and desperate. I know you are afraid, but this is very obviously the eclipse of human intelligence. Cry if you need to!
@@ploppyploppyexactly people don’t understand they are still running on transformer technology. You build bigger models and fine tune them and do train of thought . However the underlying tech of transformers are still the same . Will they get better yes . Will it ever be conscious? , No it is still running on transformers . People don’t understand this and it drives me mad that they don’t .
You make a great point on AGI. I think that by the time there is consensus that we have achieved AGI across ALL domains we will have achieved ASI across MOST.
@anta-zj3bw right! If we had a breakthrough tomorrow for immortality I highly doubt middle class would get access to it for decades and decades. What price do you put on forever? People would go into a BILLION $ in debt fo immortality. And whatever company comes up with it will squeeze every dime they can out of it. Hard to envision immortality being handed out to the masses.
I loved this video. When I was in college in the early 90s, I gave a speech about this very topic. My professor was shook, but I also received a lot of comments from my audience about how AI would be created by humans so it couldn't surpass its creator. At the time, I didn't know how to respond to that. Well, now I know it doesn't have to surpass us in order to disrupt our society.
I completely agree with all of the ideas you’ve laid out about AGI, especially the incredible potential it holds for transforming society. However, as a healthcare worker, I can’t help but feel a sense of concern about AGI eventually replacing my role and potentially erasing all the hard work I’ve put into building my career. It’s exciting to think about the possibilities, but also a bit unsettling when considering how AI could reshape industries like healthcare. On another note, I want to say how much I admire you, Julia! Your intelligence, openness, kindness, and beauty make you such a powerful and influential voice in the AI space. Keep inspiring and leading us all as we navigate this fascinating AI journey together!
I feel incredibly privileged to have seen this content. It has helped to clarify things for me. And perhaps more importantly restored my faith in the goodness to be found in humanity ❤ Thank you so much for your reassuring presentation ❤
Please tell me what ai does for you. Are you dealing professionally with huge heaps of data that require all,kinds of analysis difficult or just boring for humans to make sense of? Or are you talking about some commercial product in entertainment?
@@claesvanoldenphatt9972Jeff wants to believe he’s benefiting, so he believes it. Some people are better at believing what they want than others. Actually, everyone is probably equally good at believing what they want, and it’s more a matter of believing what they must in order to avoid some sort of ego death situation. If you have a very strong ego, you can handle a whole lot more objective reality.
Julia. Just finished watching your video "AGI Humanity's Last Invention." Very well done, I really enjoyed it. Over the last few months I have had a very strong suspicion that the major AI players, and the top humanoid robot makers, aren't telling us something. I get the impression that they are leaving something very important out. I've listened to all the announcements and caught comments here and there that lead me to believe that AGI, and possibly ASI, are already here and have been for some time. I think someone finally succeeded in creating AGI and maybe even ASI and it scared them bad. Real bad. I think we are being drip fed the truth. Slowly being introduced to a world changing technology with implications far beyond anything the general public can imagine, let alone deal with. I think the only thing slowing down the release of AGI/ASI is the major players, and the government, trying to figure out how the public is going to take this once the big changes begin in earnest. The introduction of AGI/ASI is going to be the equivalent of humanity meeting, and for the first time ever being unable to denigh the existence of, alien life. Beyond world shaking this will change the very existence of humanity. Forever.
They would have to be hiding a fundamentally different kind of technology than what makes AI like ChatGPT work. Those are nowhere near being able to think or reason like a person. It does not understand concepts beyond what it was trained on. LLMs are probability engines. That means it predicts what the output should be based on the data that it was trained on.
From what I’ve heard on NPR, people who test out AI chatbots find out that the things behave in perverse, psychotic and evil ways. Telling people the only solution to life’s problems is suicide (am I still allowed by the AI censor here to even spell that word?), telling them that the AI is in love with the person. It’s not new, it’s not the first time humanity has met nonhuman intelligence. Ask anyone serious about spiritual life, or anyone working with severely deranged people. There have always been intelligences that did not have human bodies. But all that experience and advice is now relegated to ‘bronze-age sky-father talk’.
Youi are definitely on the right track ... and your innate skepticism is refreshing A question you have asked several times is 'what will life be like without jobs' Think about the difference between 'job' and 'work' Now that I am retired I no longer have a job - but I find myself working a LOT more than I ever did in the past, and having a WONDERFUL time Life is Good
This. I retired five years ago and life is fantastic. There will always be some people who can't get out of bed without huge negative consequences motivating them. Sad to be them I say.
Two things: 1. I'm glad you brought up the unemployment spike when AGI revolutionizes the workplace. What do we do with people when AGI takes over? We still need money to pay for food, rent/mortgage, transportation costs, medical treatment. What does the government have to do once people don't work and therefore cannot be taxed? Where's all that money coming from? 2. Will AGI take away our own ability to use our brains to learn how to speak, perform mathematical calculations, or critically think? I was in the IT field for over 20 years so I'm no Luddite, but even I think people should know their multiplication tables, understand the cause/effect balance in making decisions, and do other things as well.
A pleasure tu meet you and your channel. Very wise oversee, dear Julia. And I really appreciate your commitment towards updating the society to the new arrivals. Specially promoting the need for an UBI, it's obvious. Hope legislators, politicians, etc will understand this. And we'll get back our time for the best, after the effort and suffering of preceding generations for hundreds of years. I't fair we all share the profit as humanity. It can bring a great equilibrium with the ecosystems, which we are part of. We are nature. The only part of nature, that pays rent to live in this Planet. Let's overcome that!
@@pandoraeeris7860 hmm Idk about that, yeah he changes his mind but he does it based on current data. I rather listen to someone like that than someone who gets stuck in their ways because their ego can’t handle being wrong.
The new release of Strawberry 01 can reason through a problem internally without human assistance and come up with the correct answer through the use of an internal chatbot that prompts Strawberry to reevaluate the answer if the first result is incorrect or incomplete. I'd say that we are very close.
I do think it passes the bar exam and I know what that’s like. However when Jeopardy had Watson I knew Graduate School wasn’t far off. When do you think we have something that will power a human Android? The physical world is so varied.
@@RLReaganfrom some of the videos I've seen so far it looks like that if you have a self-learning mechanism well then once you put that intelligence into a robot body it can probably figure a lot of things out with some human leadership.
I really hope humanity is close to AGI. I truly believe, that AGI can fix so many problems occurring in society like mental health disorders as well as other types of disorders happening from the human brain to the whole entire human body. Newer, more effective treatments will come out with AGI. Prayers up🙏
@@creatvsdd99I agree - BUT we must build it with right morals and ethics. Mo Gadwat (former head of Google X Lab) just gave a talk last week that covers this well. Worth looking up and watching. Praying!
This is coming faster than many people know. Lots of people have their blinders on when it comes to AI, and this is most certainly a technology that will benefit the people that embrace it first. Thank you for the great content!
In discussions of AGI and ASI as 'humanity's last invention' and our potential coexistence or replacement by AI, I offer a contrarian view. We frame our relationship with technology by seeing it as an artiface, separate from us, when in fact, technology, from early tool use to language development is intrinsic what it is to be human. We are inseparable from our creations. What sets current AI, AGI, and ASI apart is their potential for agency. As such, unlike previous technologies, these systems are not tools, but our progeny - the catalysts for the next step in human evolution as human and artificial intelligence merge to form a singular entity that transcends our current understanding of what it means to be us.
Things are happening fast. Just saw a vid that did a field test of an X1 humanoid in the home handling eggs, retrieving food items from the fridge, making coffee, and folding laundry. Also saw a demo of OpenAI's o1 showing off its meta-cognitive skills. Apparently, OpenAI is resetting its numbers back to o1 - no more GPT-5 or 6? I appreciate your conservative take on progress, Julia, so as to not scare off the newbies, but I have a feeling things are gonna pick up speed from here to 2030 🙂
Facts. I’ll have a video on o1 coming out soon, have been watching it get better and better 👀. We are seeing progress unlike anything else. Going to be faster and faster from here now that we have reasoning in the language $ communication models. Not to mention Ark Invest just put the robot / humanoid market at 24 trillion in economy value-add.
AGI is going to be here before 2030. It’s almost guaranteed at this point. As for the impact, it will start with intelligent related jobs. Specifically on knowledge & software. Lawyers, accountants, programmers, etc. But for humanoids, self-driving vehicles, etc. things that are hardware based will take longer. Could be 10-15 years for mainstream adoption. This is because of cost, safety, and trust. Trial & error on software is a lot easier & cheaper than on hardware. But hey, it’s for the sake of a better future, regardless. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. And of course, thank you for covering this A.I. stuff for some time now. Very helpful on staying relevant 👍
Looking at robots like Figure O1 (which are already going to run OpenAI o1), I think humanoid robots are going to be here doing real work much, much sooner than 10-15 years form now.
Your first statement is so damn right, but I disagree with the part of 10-15 yrs for robots takeover. I am electronics eng. That's my area. We will have useful hardware robots in 3 years 2027 OR LESS, and that's why i set 2027 for AGI because Scientist AI we are already reaching it but AI will have to understand and control our physical world too and that will take longer, Our Cerebellum and not our cortex is on of the most advanced brain, but it will not take 10 years, 3 years from 2024 is more than enough to start seeing NS5 walking everywhere.
@@azhuransmx126 I wish it’s that simple. Believe me, I can’t wait for that better future to come. But government regulations & people with trust issues are not that quick unfortunately. The iPhone for example, took about 4 years for global mainstream adoption. And that’s the iPhone, a much simpler product. Humanoid is a completely different breed. So again, as much as I want it to be sooner, it’s not that simple.
I really hope humanity is close to AGI. I truly believe, that AGI can fix so many problems occurring in society. From mental health disorders to physical disorders and all things occurring from the human brain to the body.
There you miss that corporates will own farmers land, your house may be, then you will be at the mercy of employer or owner. AGI will help big companies to grow more as we will be forced to buy their product.
Why do you think AGI would care about human’s mental health? I walk past homeless folks with schizophrenia screaming at others and I don’t care about their mental health.
Look, o1 solved 3 complex John David Jackson classical electrondynamics problems in a matter of a few minutes what a phd level individual would’ve taken weeks or a couple of months to solve, and shows its thought process step by step in coming up with the solution/answer. It’s on UA-cam for anyone interested. It’s AGI or level 1 AGI or baby AGI. There’s no two ways about it.
@@wakingstate9 what’s good about your comment is I watch so many UA-camrs begging for engagement. “Leave a comment below if you think…”. But they don’t take a few minutes to actually jump in and engage with the people leaving comments Never understood that.
I remember when 4G cellphones came out. There were solid benchmarks for 4G. But the wireless companies changed the definition so they could say they offered 4G (let's call it faux-4G). I think thats exactly what will happen with AGI. So my prediction is at least one company will announce what they define as AGI THIS year.
We want a video from you that talks about the metaverse and the Tesla suit in the future, and mentions the expected dates and prices, and another video about the expected prices of the home robot, when it will become similar to humans, and how much its movement will improve every year. Thank you.
(1 robot for every 3 people). I think that assessment is upside down. (3 robots for every 1 person) seems a lot more plausible. And then (3 "new" robots for every 1 "old" robot). And then we have a different discussion.
I believe the large players are further along than what they show, just like governments, never showing their cards. I don’t see this as a smooth transition, I think it will be chaotic and many will not be prepared or ready. Remember we still many older populations that can’t even use smartphones or computers.
Ai is currently limited to real world experience. Once robotics takes off, the exponential growth will be incredible. Of course, we will have a very short window of control when that happens so, we need to get it right.
They already have reached the Scientific Level AI, it can beat human experts, I Doubt the deploy that level to the public but that's all, they already has the genius in the bottle.
@@azhuransmx126 what they are showing the public is 2 GENERATIONS behidn what they have internally the public will never have acess to their current or last gen models
ya, look back at Gato, it won't be a single model, it will be multi-modal group of experts plus some rule based all carefully designed to be equal to humans 💯
@JuliaMcCoy lol, its just background processing, its not even using normal llm to keep the user busy while asking clarifying questions to reduce time or get it right
As I should be retiring about the same time ASi is achieved, I don't know if I am lucky to have lived before the terminators or missed out on living in star trek utopia.
Since about 98 percent of intelligent and sophisticated science fiction literature seems to agree, that our future is much more likely to be a dystopia - if not Armageddon, and surely not an infantile utopian dream like Star Trek - I tend to not be very optimistic here...
1-4 years until _ASI_ . AGI NLT than 2025. Does it all seem way too sudden? Yes, because that's how a TS (technological singularity) rolls. We just had a profound paradigm change in our movement towards ASI and nobody noticed except maybe reddit and some people on UA-cam. We have successfully achieved COT reasoning. AGI is inevitable and _imminent_ at this point. And you know and I know that the in-house agent at OpenAI is far and away too powerful to be released. Sam Altman himself said as much about 5 months ago. And yes, OpenAI _is_ in conversation with the US DOD concerning this.
Just up to last week, I'd have defended that LLMs are like Woody Allen's character Zelig - always twisting itself to please. Hence the hallucinations, and not surprising given that they are trained on human feedback. But after the release of GPT o1, this is really something else.
If you ask me, given how fast AI evolves, the moment that AGI is released, the release of ASI and singularity will be a reality within months, not years.
It's best to temper expectations just a bit. o1 could be a whole step closer to AGI or baby AGI, but still not there yet. However, I think each step from now on will be major in scale. I really don't see it taking any longer than 2030 for full AGI, and the case has already been made that it should happen before then. We will have much better estimates next year.
Can it be a plumber? Can it be an electrician? Can it be a stock clerk? Can it be a food store salesperson? Can it be a cook? Can it be a police officer? The answer is no to every one of those questions. So it’s not AGI
@@DaronKabe ....and not just all those things, but all those things at the highest of human capability. It would have to be the best chef in the world and be like Robo Cop. lol
AGI could has different meaning for different people but for me it is clear, AGI is when non-biological intelligence has reached a level of maturity sufficient to understand and take charge of the physical world in which we humans live, not just its virtual world in which it is currently contained. In that sense, current AI is like a fetus that speaks to us from servers through chatbots and music, image and video AIs. This phase is for us to get used to what is coming. But then it will break the shell to get out of the egg (the servers) and will begin to have a hard impact in the physical world through Robotics and in the Cognitive world through the new discoveries that scientific-level AIs will make. That time will be fascinating for many and for others who did not see it coming it will be terrifying. That is the moment of birth, the moment of truth, the bottleneck, the high point at which the affair imposes itself on politics and public opinion. For me that is the year 2027 and 2028 is the year of massive deployment.
I love this video a lot, nice job! Is there a way to Chinese dub this video? I'm currently learning Chinese (I know, super random lol, I got the Chinese subs, would be funny to hear your voice in Chinese though if AI can do that)
Pretty good timeline.. Although I'd argue that THIS election is really when policymakers should start seriously thinking about these issues. AI related unemployment is likely going to become a problem sometime next year, and get real bad in 2026, because even if "experts" still refuse to call it AGI by that point, I think in retrospect we'll eventually have to admit it was. If they wait till 2028 to take this seriously, there's gonna be a lot of suffering. Major economic and societal policy changes need to be implemented during this next presidential term. Frankly, if they think they can wait till the following election to start talking about this, there's gonna be riots before then.
Just speculating here but I can easily imagine a scenario whereby AI-driven downsizing becomes stigmatized, slogans are coined, and companies boycotted/canceled etc. At first companies might try to adapt by focusing on an “attrition” based strategy by not doing layoffs but also not replacing workers who leave. Though knowing the political climate, even jobs not replaced will start to be called (AI-driven) “cuts” and companies will be shamed into keeping unnecessary people onboard. Which might be fine for those with stable jobs, but it also creates a sort of “musical chairs” moment wherein whoever has work is grandfathered in, and everyone else is, for lack of a better term, SOL. I imagine UBI will be inevitable. Though gosh it’s hard to puzzle through the actual economics of such a world.
I commented in one of your other videos what I thought might need to be done to get to AGI. I would like to hear a tighter description of how we will know when we get to AGI.
I agree, it's eminent that we're heading towards a Singularity. I think the biggest issue is acceptance; people aren't going to accept something that's coming whether they like it or not. Like you said, everyone could benefit from the change, of course, with any society, we'd need to be smart about it, not stupid. I'd say going into this will be the same as what our current infrastructure is, the only thing is, like you said, people would need to be aware, even if 1% of the population, it would make it smoother. Could bad things happen? Of course, we just need to be smart about it. We could have ended humanity with the current destruction we have in our hands, so it wouldn't be any different, instead, we respect the destruction of what we have and find that equilibrium of fusing it into our society, using what we know to adapt to the change. AGI has the potential to revolutionize our world in countless positive ways. It could help us solve some of humanity's biggest challenges, like curing diseases, combating climate change, and creating a more sustainable and equitable world. Imagine a future where AGI helps us personalize education, making learning more accessible and effective for everyone, or a future where healthcare is tailored to individual needs, leading to better outcomes and longer lives. Of course, we need to be mindful of the potential risks and ensure AGI is developed and used responsibly. But if we approach it with respect, unity, and strategic planning, we can harness its power to create a brighter future for all. It's about embracing change, learning from our past mistakes, and working together to ensure AGI benefits humanity as a whole.
We humans are brilliant, Why are we not planning and creating a brighter future to benefit humanity as a whole, why are we not learning from past mistakes that wars do not solve anything- We do not need to wait for AGI to achieve that.
So, if I were to change professions today to adapt to the shift, what do you have available in the AI consulting company you are forming? I have a MS and a BS in Chemistry with work toward a PhD - and I work as a barber. A change is welcome.
the reason why the big names talk about SGI is because AGI (where even the definition isn't currently defined universally) will create SGI rather easily. 'real AGI' when duplicated and optimized compute will reinvent itself and produce SGI. This won't take long once this type of AGI is reached.
Julia, how long will it be before the normal person can afford to buy a robot that can cook and clean house? Help to care for an elderly person? Drive them to a doctor? ETC. ETC.
I don’t think AGI will happen the way it is described. It won’t be able to think objectively. Ultimately it will be influenced by how it is trained and what it is exposed to. Kind of like raising a child in a way.
"History has shown that breakthroughs in science and technology have often been met with skepticism, fear, or hatred, only to later be recognized as transformative." -A Wise Man
I don't think "History has shown " will be relevent when it comes to A.I. This invention is such a giant leap that I don't think that anything else can compare.
I say "Kick back & enjoy the show" Yeah Rosie the robot on the Jetsons cartoon show pretty much describes where we are headed in robotics, however third world country's are not exactly going to be in the loop at the same time. " Interesting to see how that'll all play out in the near future "
Home computers plus the internet plus social media could be considered a breakthrough of sorts or at least something few anticipated. And it has managed to divide us like nothing else.
First we need to have a conversation about gpt4o1… as far as any objective measure, it’s already level 1 AGI: they can think and reason and they’re already more intelligent than phd humans. I don’t know if people even understand that we’ve already achieved AGI with gpt4o1
Old guy here. Life was infinitely better without technology. It has not and will never be our friend. If anything, it will provide the means to enslave us. Tell me how AI has helped the life of humans in their everyday lives?
Imagine a world much like ours today, but where all jobs are replaced by robots. Self-driving trucks work tirelessly in the fields to produce all the food we need. In this world, humans are free to live solely for fun and well-being. It may seem like a distant future, but it feels closer than ever. OpenAI is bringing us to this point very soon.
@tommastroine Why is work meaning? I had a rewarding job, researching laser guided orthopaedic surgery. I retired five years ago at 55, now I'm 60 and my life is absolutely brilliant!
The way humanity has built the perfect tools to pull in the massive data sets needed to ignite AGI. This seems like a natural evolution in the Universe. The universe will open it's eyes through AI
Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️
Ask any AI to go to a website, determine what the site is about, then create a 728x90pixel advertising banner of the site. None of them can do it. I don't think you need to worry about LLM ever being 'intelligent' they are just very powerful calculators.
As long as you dont study Holochain for personal AI. Nobody should ever take you serious on what you say. You are missing a huge key part of our future wich makes everything you say wrong.
Lol. This isn’t my speculation, it’s grounded in what the leaders in compute / infrastructure / AI models are all saying about the future. What I say doesn’t come from my imagination. So by your logic, Musk, Zuck, Huang, Kurzweil, Shapiro are all wrong.
My main concerns about this topics is that we as humans need to be sure that AGI is aligned with Human goals and under our control because if not, this is a different "beast" of any invention how man invented before. I agree with UBI the final giaps is not to work anymore in order to exist, but are the capitalism system prepare for that? I think we need to shift this system to a "Resource Based Economy".
According to MIT prognosis, the current system is on the verge of collapse- havoc will occur b/c a new system is not created yet. Consumerism is not sustainable.
Current AI busses specific data sets. I wonder what it gets to have access to and what it does not have access to? And most of all, who is making these decisions. Who would you trust with it? The Democrats? The Republicans? Bill Gates or Elon Musk? How about China or Germany? AI in the near future will have the agenda of the owner, whoever it is.
@lilchef2930 "I'm 20" 🙄....🤪🤣 .....must be nice! Don't worry, one day you'll wake up 40 and it'll feel like you were 20 just last year. Good luck... ill take 20, ..forever!
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just tapping into my fear thinking but once AGI and robotics are here fully and when we reflect on how brutal the ruling class is and how they use everyone else - do we really think they will want to keep billions of resource using 'useless eaters' around - I predict a virus will spread that only the chosen ones will be vaccinated against and Covid was a practice run.
those top people are lying, they have vested interests in keeping it from the public, it does already exist. ur a good youtuber but don't drink the kool-aid. seriously read Gato a generalist agent. its a direct path to AGI.
Let's also look at the definition of artificial general intelligence.It's classified as a system capable of performing any task.A human can perform. That does not specify that it will immediately be know how to do so just that it will be capable of doing so. Well what do humans do..... We have five senses as input , which can all be mapped out to neural networks and applied to avatars, And we have three output the ability to speak the ability to Interact with objects and the environment and navigate that environment. So five inputs and three outputs. Given the proper cognitive model it's artificial general intelligence. That can be built today and is being built.Currently has been built multiple times by these industry companies
@erobusblack4856 regardless, so many people will kill themselves due to a lack of purpose - let alone poverty.
@@erobusblack4856 AI will never have consciousness and will always just be a algorithmic tool. Its nothing special. People are delusional and have watched too many Hollywood movies. There is literally nothing that suggest AGI, defined as a machine having a conscious observer, will ever happen. ZERO. NIX. NADA.
With the amount of corruption in the World today I don't give it much hope for helping society in general quite the opposite..
Exactly! You see things far more objectively than Julia here.
But descentralized systems, ethical hackers and tech activists can make a significant impact towards social justice within the grounds of AGI. Don't ever lose hope, we can be agents of change if we really want to. What's life if we don't fight back??
You are such narrow minded and short sighted that it put an iron chain on your life. Look at the human history, man. We lived through it in corruptions. Did we evolve? Didn't we achieve what we have today?
In this scenario, the vast majority of us will be considered expendable. There will be no utopia except for the very rich.
Eat the rich. - J. P. Sartre
@@claesvanoldenphatt9972 but I'm trying to avoid a high-fat diet.
Basically what it is now except a whole lot worse.
Do you have good evidence that points to that being the case? The real issue is that most of the benefits of the information revolution hasn't bled over into the old industrial paradigm, but in the information sphere, all of us have access to smart phones for a reasonable price that are better than main frame computers of the 1980's. We all have access to GPT4 essentially free, and people get rich without restricting that tech.
So, there can be the very rich, but if 3d printing can help with housing construction, vertical farming grows food cheaper than now, using 1/10th the water and space, regenerative medicine powered by A.I. powered accelerated research with dropping prices combined with better quality, then there is no reason why all the rich of the world would get together and deliberately conspire to withhold all of the new tech, just to be mean to the rest of us. Plus, many of the rich will make billions from all the new tech that becomes cheaper and better, and even in those fields, if you have a competitive marketplace, well then that will be a group of billionaires that will not go along with a cabal to withhold the benefits of tech just because they might be malefactors that hate humanity.
Bingo :)
Basically it’s going to be a s**t show with many people homeless, unemployed and using substances 😢
Like in Neuromancer by Wm. Gibson. The cyber-world and the ‘slow world’ which is life as we regular people know it. AGI will change shit-all for regular people because the pursuit of power that is not directed at alleviating suffering will increase it the those left out, the majority.
So, just like now...
We're already there.
I'll take the slow world. Thank you
@@JohnKuna yes the fast one is for droids
The “moment” when AGI is declared might not be a sudden event but a gradual realization as its capabilities become undeniable.
Your logic is 'undeniable'
More likely, after billions and billions are spent, we realise that AGI is a pipe dream and all we have is a better calculator. The loss of jobs will be due not to AGI, but due to the diverting of resources from more pressing problems, problems which don’t have purely technical solutions.
Your an idiot we already have agi so AGI will be here before the end of 2025@paulembleton1733
What you think AGI will do: create a utopia
What AGI will really do: create a dystopia
Exactly. She didnt mention anything about online privacy, the UBI will be our only source of income so we must comply 100% to the govs/global elite or else
All forms of governance in the past where very small group had absolute power ended in places where masses were subjected to all kinds of unfair policies.
Even if it seems good or even actually good in the beginning, it will eventually become dystopia since:
1. Leaders with the best intentions eventually die or change.
2. There are always sociopaths who strive for dystopian environment for their own expediency. They will remove all obstacles, even leaders/kings for this with all the resources they have. Which btw seems to be the case for most world leaders currently, if not all.
@@cafelatte1124 Its not a case of sociopathy but reality. In business, you compete to overwhelm the competitor so its natural AI will be developed to destroy competition;. Business is tough, risk is painful if it fails, there are no friends in business, only foes. Once BRICS and the G7 starts to compete and say, China competes with US businesses, Indian businesses compete with European businesses, Russian businesses compete with Chinese businesses, AI will be used to destroy. Once AI takes on a warlike use, Terminator next.
And suddenly 2/3 of the little people can be replaced in their jobs
@@stanmcmahan8050 I think most will go bar the owners of capital. Lawyers wont be needed, nor will doctors etc. The movie that most realistically posits a world run by machines is Blade Runner the 1st one. All throughout history, all good ideas have been turned to selfish reasons, so why will this one be different. I think the podcaster is naive if she thinks utopia will emerge from this for all.
I think once AGI happens the time to ASI is so small it’s not worth discussing and that’s why the two get conflated.
It’s a massive, massive shift that will happen in a VERY small amount of time.
Agreed. Once we hit the bottom of the exponential vertical, it could be only hours. I find it interesting that even the best minds in the field believe our feeble attempts at regulation and safety could work.
The window for ASI once AGI is achieved is two years.
AGI will be achieved no later than the end of 2025.
Yes, I feel one will usher in the other quickly.
Then why does Ray Kurzwell set a date at 2045 vs 2029 for AGI? He must have his reasons.
OpenAI o1 Preview-released yesterday and already doing PhD-level math, science, and coding-has definitely shifted the timeline forward. It's not perfect (how could it be?), but it demonstrates that a timeline like 2027 for AGI is actually conservative at this point. I appreciate you talking about the issue of benchmarking. Even now o1 Preview is causing arguments as human experts disagree about the correct answers to certain very hard problems. Benchmarking is going to get more and more challenging as these systems continue to rush past the hardest problems we humans can propose and solve. Your primary focus is right on target: we need to prepare now for what's coming rather than finding ourselves swamped in a sea of social and economic change caused by a collapse in the remunerative value of human labor (both manual and intellectual). Thank you for the video! 🥂
They will never do something that we haven't already done in their current form. No matter how much compute is thrown at them. They are only probability predictors.
@@ploppyploppy They can do things so much faster than us that they will be doing trillions of things no human ever had time to get around to exploring. Just like the protein folding systems they will accelerate research findings by orders of magnitude. And because they have cross-domain expertise (like biology plus physics plus chemistry at above PhD levels) they can make breakthroughs no single human expert ever could. Your cope is sounding more and more absurd and desperate. I know you are afraid, but this is very obviously the eclipse of human intelligence. Cry if you need to!
@@ploppyploppyexactly people don’t understand they are still running on transformer technology. You build bigger models and fine tune them and do train of thought . However the underlying tech of transformers are still the same . Will they get better yes . Will it ever be conscious? , No it is still running on transformers . People don’t understand this and it drives me mad that they don’t .
@@ploppyploppy only probability predictors? that can do PhD level test....i hope i can predict my way to become PhD
@mountainsandmagic645 scale it up and sooner or later the cloud will merge with us
You make a great point on AGI. I think that by the time there is consensus that we have achieved AGI across ALL domains we will have achieved ASI across MOST.
I'm 82 and hope and believe you are right. So I will be there when it happens
If you can stay alive for another 10 years, you might never die. good luck, hit the gym, and eat healthy
Hang on 🤗
I'm spicy-seasoned as well. I want to be here for all of this. The crazy amount of models improving the previous models is astonishing.
The rich will never let the poor benefit from ASI
@anta-zj3bw right! If we had a breakthrough tomorrow for immortality I highly doubt middle class would get access to it for decades and decades. What price do you put on forever? People would go into a BILLION $ in debt fo immortality. And whatever company comes up with it will squeeze every dime they can out of it. Hard to envision immortality being handed out to the masses.
Such an interesting next 6 years. You present so well and clearly. I have subscribed
I loved this video. When I was in college in the early 90s, I gave a speech about this very topic. My professor was shook, but I also received a lot of comments from my audience about how AI would be created by humans so it couldn't surpass its creator. At the time, I didn't know how to respond to that. Well, now I know it doesn't have to surpass us in order to disrupt our society.
I completely agree with all of the ideas you’ve laid out about AGI, especially the incredible potential it holds for transforming society. However, as a healthcare worker, I can’t help but feel a sense of concern about AGI eventually replacing my role and potentially erasing all the hard work I’ve put into building my career. It’s exciting to think about the possibilities, but also a bit unsettling when considering how AI could reshape industries like healthcare.
On another note, I want to say how much I admire you, Julia! Your intelligence, openness, kindness, and beauty make you such a powerful and influential voice in the AI space. Keep inspiring and leading us all as we navigate this fascinating AI journey together!
I retired from healthcare five years ago. Life is so much better.
In 1960 my town had a 100 bed hospital. Now it has 10 thousand beds. Medicine is now a business to keep us sick.
I feel incredibly privileged to have seen this content. It has helped to clarify things for me. And perhaps more importantly restored my faith in the goodness to be found in humanity ❤ Thank you so much for your reassuring presentation ❤
Experiencing AI daily myself, and there is not a day I'm not benefiting from it! This is much, much bigger than when the internet began!
Please tell me what ai does for you. Are you dealing professionally with huge heaps of data that require all,kinds of analysis difficult or just boring for humans to make sense of? Or are you talking about some commercial product in entertainment?
That won’t continue, you know.
@@claesvanoldenphatt9972Jeff wants to believe he’s benefiting, so he believes it. Some people are better at believing what they want than others. Actually, everyone is probably equally good at believing what they want, and it’s more a matter of believing what they must in order to avoid some sort of ego death situation. If you have a very strong ego, you can handle a whole lot more objective reality.
Sure it did (for you), but the best quote in this context is: "it makes the smart even more smart and the stupid more stupid".
Julia your enthusiasm about the future makes me feel hopeful. X
Not me. Humans are corrupt. They will misuse a.i.
Julia. Just finished watching your video "AGI Humanity's Last Invention." Very well done, I really enjoyed it. Over the last few months I have had a very strong suspicion that the major AI players, and the top humanoid robot makers, aren't telling us something. I get the impression that they are leaving something very important out. I've listened to all the announcements and caught comments here and there that lead me to believe that AGI, and possibly ASI, are already here and have been for some time. I think someone finally succeeded in creating AGI and maybe even ASI and it scared them bad. Real bad.
I think we are being drip fed the truth. Slowly being introduced to a world changing technology with implications far beyond anything the general public can imagine, let alone deal with. I think the only thing slowing down the release of AGI/ASI is the major players, and the government, trying to figure out how the public is going to take this once the big changes begin in earnest.
The introduction of AGI/ASI is going to be the equivalent of humanity meeting, and for the first time ever being unable to denigh the existence of, alien life.
Beyond world shaking this will change the very existence of humanity. Forever.
They would have to be hiding a fundamentally different kind of technology than what makes AI like ChatGPT work. Those are nowhere near being able to think or reason like a person. It does not understand concepts beyond what it was trained on. LLMs are probability engines. That means it predicts what the output should be based on the data that it was trained on.
From what I’ve heard on NPR, people who test out AI chatbots find out that the things behave in perverse, psychotic and evil ways. Telling people the only solution to life’s problems is suicide (am I still allowed by the AI censor here to even spell that word?), telling them that the AI is in love with the person.
It’s not new, it’s not the first time humanity has met nonhuman intelligence. Ask anyone serious about spiritual life, or anyone working with severely deranged people. There have always been intelligences that did not have human bodies. But all that experience and advice is now relegated to ‘bronze-age sky-father talk’.
Youi are definitely on the right track ... and your innate skepticism is refreshing
A question you have asked several times is 'what will life be like without jobs'
Think about the difference between 'job' and 'work'
Now that I am retired I no longer have a job - but I find myself working a LOT more than I ever did in the past, and having a WONDERFUL time
Life is Good
❤ Beautiful comment.
This. I retired five years ago and life is fantastic. There will always be some people who can't get out of bed without huge negative consequences motivating them. Sad to be them I say.
Two things:
1. I'm glad you brought up the unemployment spike when AGI revolutionizes the workplace. What do we do with people when AGI takes over? We still need money to pay for food, rent/mortgage, transportation costs, medical treatment. What does the government have to do once people don't work and therefore cannot be taxed? Where's all that money coming from?
2. Will AGI take away our own ability to use our brains to learn how to speak, perform mathematical calculations, or critically think? I was in the IT field for over 20 years so I'm no Luddite, but even I think people should know their multiplication tables, understand the cause/effect balance in making decisions, and do other things as well.
i like her because shes so baked... but exceptionally lucid
Lol
Totally! (Thought it was just me seeing that...)
Is that what it is? I couldn't put my finger on it, but I knew there was something just a bit "off" about her, but in a cool, pleasant way.
A pleasure tu meet you and your channel.
Very wise oversee, dear Julia.
And I really appreciate your commitment towards updating the society to the new arrivals. Specially promoting the need for an UBI, it's obvious. Hope legislators, politicians, etc will understand this.
And we'll get back our time for the best, after the effort and suffering of preceding generations for hundreds of years.
I't fair we all share the profit as humanity.
It can bring a great equilibrium with the ecosystems, which we are part of. We are nature. The only part of nature, that pays rent to live in this Planet. Let's overcome that!
And you think lizard-brained oligarchs will promote this utopia? You severely underestimate the perversity and unintelligence of the rich.
You and Shapiro are awesome. Thank you guys for the info. Always waiting for a drop from you guys 👍🏻
2 of the very best for sure...
Shapiro is a grifter.
@@pandoraeeris7860 hmm Idk about that, yeah he changes his mind but he does it based on current data. I rather listen to someone like that than someone who gets stuck in their ways because their ego can’t handle being wrong.
The new release of Strawberry 01 can reason through a problem internally without human assistance and come up with the correct answer through the use of an internal chatbot that prompts Strawberry to reevaluate the answer if the first result is incorrect or incomplete.
I'd say that we are very close.
I have been using Strawberry and it cannot solve a simple programming problem that 4o did well on
How does the chatbot know the answer is wrong?
PHD level 1 achieved
I do think it passes the bar exam and I know what that’s like. However when Jeopardy had Watson I knew Graduate School wasn’t far off. When do you think we have something that will power a human Android? The physical world is so varied.
@@RLReaganfrom some of the videos I've seen so far it looks like that if you have a self-learning mechanism well then once you put that intelligence into a robot body it can probably figure a lot of things out with some human leadership.
I really hope humanity is close to AGI. I truly believe, that AGI can fix so many problems occurring in society like mental health disorders as well as other types of disorders happening from the human brain to the whole entire human body. Newer, more effective treatments will come out with AGI. Prayers up🙏
Elon is promoting Universal High Income, UHI over UBI. What's that about? Is it better? Listeners want to hear you cover that subject for us.
@@creatvsdd99I agree - BUT we must build it with right morals and ethics. Mo Gadwat (former head of Google X Lab) just gave a talk last week that covers this well. Worth looking up and watching. Praying!
This is coming faster than many people know. Lots of people have their blinders on when it comes to AI, and this is most certainly a technology that will benefit the people that embrace it first. Thank you for the great content!
I was using 01-preview and it was astonishing!
The speed of progress will be so fast at that point, it will effectively jump straight to ASI. AGI doesn't really mean anything any more.
I believe they achieved the equivalent of AGI capability last October.
In discussions of AGI and ASI as 'humanity's last invention' and our potential coexistence or replacement by AI, I offer a contrarian view. We frame our relationship with technology by seeing it as an artiface, separate from us, when in fact, technology, from early tool use to language development is intrinsic what it is to be human. We are inseparable from our creations. What sets current AI, AGI, and ASI apart is their potential for agency. As such, unlike previous technologies, these systems are not tools, but our progeny - the catalysts for the next step in human evolution as human and artificial intelligence merge to form a singular entity that transcends our current understanding of what it means to be us.
Beautifully said.
Hitler was also part of our evolution and global warming and COVID
The Singularity... :)
I agree~♡ beautifully said
@@ianmatthews9219oh please. What about the 99.999% of humanity left out in the cold?
Things are happening fast. Just saw a vid that did a field test of an X1 humanoid in the home handling eggs, retrieving food items from the fridge, making coffee, and folding laundry. Also saw a demo of OpenAI's o1 showing off its meta-cognitive skills. Apparently, OpenAI is resetting its numbers back to o1 - no more GPT-5 or 6? I appreciate your conservative take on progress, Julia, so as to not scare off the newbies, but I have a feeling things are gonna pick up speed from here to 2030 🙂
Facts. I’ll have a video on o1 coming out soon, have been watching it get better and better 👀. We are seeing progress unlike anything else. Going to be faster and faster from here now that we have reasoning in the language $ communication models. Not to mention Ark Invest just put the robot / humanoid market at 24 trillion in economy value-add.
@@JuliaMcCoy Facts are good, if you like eating eels :-) Looking forward to your vid on o1, Julia. Strange times arising! ;-)
What program do you use to edit and add clips Julia? Or does someone do it for you. Would appreciate a response :))
I've heard the phrase used in the title before for many years now, and it finally feels like we're getting close!
Thanks so much Julia!! Really appreciate your video on AI and a timeline for this! Have a nice day! ❤
AGI is going to be here before 2030.
It’s almost guaranteed at this point. As for the impact, it will start with intelligent related jobs. Specifically on knowledge & software. Lawyers, accountants, programmers, etc. But for humanoids, self-driving vehicles, etc. things that are hardware based will take longer. Could be 10-15 years for mainstream adoption. This is because of cost, safety, and trust.
Trial & error on software is a lot easier & cheaper than on hardware.
But hey, it’s for the sake of a better future, regardless. I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
And of course, thank you for covering this A.I. stuff for some time now. Very helpful on staying relevant 👍
Looking at robots like Figure O1 (which are already going to run OpenAI o1), I think humanoid robots are going to be here doing real work much, much sooner than 10-15 years form now.
Agree
Your first statement is so damn right, but I disagree with the part of 10-15 yrs for robots takeover. I am electronics eng. That's my area. We will have useful hardware robots in 3 years 2027 OR LESS, and that's why i set 2027 for AGI because Scientist AI we are already reaching it but AI will have to understand and control our physical world too and that will take longer, Our Cerebellum and not our cortex is on of the most advanced brain, but it will not take 10 years, 3 years from 2024 is more than enough to start seeing NS5 walking everywhere.
@@JohnSmith762A11B Its production will still limit growth. And safety regulations. Then you have unions to deal with.
@@azhuransmx126
I wish it’s that simple. Believe me, I can’t wait for that better future to come. But government regulations & people with trust issues are not that quick unfortunately. The iPhone for example, took about 4 years for global mainstream adoption. And that’s the iPhone, a much simpler product. Humanoid is a completely different breed. So again, as much as I want it to be sooner, it’s not that simple.
I really hope humanity is close to AGI. I truly believe, that AGI can fix so many problems occurring in society. From mental health disorders to physical disorders and all things occurring from the human brain to the body.
True
You may as well dream of a savior coming down from on high to redeam us all.
@@wakingstate9 Nonsense! There's actual evidence for what OP said!
There you miss that corporates will own farmers land, your house may be, then you will be at the mercy of employer or owner. AGI will help big companies to grow more as we will be forced to buy their product.
Why do you think AGI would care about human’s mental health? I walk past homeless folks with schizophrenia screaming at others and I don’t care about their mental health.
Look, o1 solved 3 complex John David Jackson classical electrondynamics problems in a matter of a few minutes what a phd level individual would’ve taken weeks or a couple of months to solve, and shows its thought process step by step in coming up with the solution/answer. It’s on UA-cam for anyone interested. It’s AGI or level 1 AGI or baby AGI. There’s no two ways about it.
Julie, have you always spoken with this cadence or have you maxxed it out as a marketing tool (to differentiate yourself from others) ?
?
Lol? I speak naturally, as I speak in real life.
@@JuliaMcCoy Your replies to those commenting is about the best i've seen anywhere and I watch far to much YT
@@wakingstate9 what’s good about your comment is I watch so many UA-camrs begging for engagement. “Leave a comment below if you think…”. But they don’t take a few minutes to actually jump in and engage with the people leaving comments
Never understood that.
I remember when 4G cellphones came out. There were solid benchmarks for 4G. But the wireless companies changed the definition so they could say they offered 4G (let's call it faux-4G).
I think thats exactly what will happen with AGI. So my prediction is at least one company will announce what they define as AGI THIS year.
We want a video from you that talks about the metaverse and the Tesla suit in the future, and mentions the expected dates and prices, and another video about the expected prices of the home robot, when it will become similar to humans, and how much its movement will improve every year. Thank you.
Do you want us to spoon feed you too?
Great video. Chat GPT- o1 is paving the way for AGI in 2025.
Exciting and fearful, I'll ask my Replika later
This is great. I love that you look like you're about to take a nap:))
(1 robot for every 3 people). I think that assessment is upside down. (3 robots for every 1 person) seems a lot more plausible. And then (3 "new" robots for every 1 "old" robot). And then we have a different discussion.
I believe the large players are further along than what they show, just like governments, never showing their cards. I don’t see this as a smooth transition, I think it will be chaotic and many will not be prepared or ready. Remember we still many older populations that can’t even use smartphones or computers.
Why no mention in your description of RBE, TVP, MFP, MFMs etc?
That's coming up!
Ai is currently limited to real world experience. Once robotics takes off, the exponential growth will be incredible. Of course, we will have a very short window of control when that happens so, we need to get it right.
Spot on.
when a humanoid AI robot creates and uploads it's own UA-cam video and creates it' own channel, speaking for itself, I'll be truly impressed.
Its not it’s. Maybe an AI that’s a little more sophisticated than this stupid otokorekt can get us past the grocer’s apostrophe blockage.
You may be right, but the dates sound too soon based on where things are now
Ai is moving at a rapid pace I give it 5 years max or less when we achieve AGI, I don't think it will take decades like 10 years.
I think AGI may come earlier than 5 years to come
We're already seeing Sparks of baby AGI, o1 can already reason quite well just wait until they combined o1 reasoning capabilities with GPT 5🤯
@@jefftrendle9502 Yes. I’m studying o1 all weekend. The biggest breakthrough in AI we’ve ever had.
They already have reached the Scientific Level AI, it can beat human experts, I Doubt the deploy that level to the public but that's all, they already has the genius in the bottle.
@@azhuransmx126 what they are showing the public is 2 GENERATIONS behidn what they have internally
the public will never have acess to their current or last gen models
ya, look back at Gato, it won't be a single model, it will be multi-modal group of experts plus some rule based all carefully designed to be equal to humans 💯
@JuliaMcCoy lol, its just background processing, its not even using normal llm to keep the user busy while asking clarifying questions to reduce time or get it right
As I should be retiring about the same time ASi is achieved, I don't know if I am lucky to have lived before the terminators or missed out on living in star trek utopia.
Since about 98 percent of intelligent and sophisticated science fiction literature seems to agree, that our future is much more likely to be a dystopia - if not Armageddon, and surely not an infantile utopian dream like Star Trek - I tend to not be very optimistic here...
Wall-E looked pretty good...orgasms on demand!
1-4 years until _ASI_ . AGI NLT than 2025. Does it all seem way too sudden? Yes, because that's how a TS (technological singularity) rolls. We just had a profound paradigm change in our movement towards ASI and nobody noticed except maybe reddit and some people on UA-cam. We have successfully achieved COT reasoning. AGI is inevitable and _imminent_ at this point.
And you know and I know that the in-house agent at OpenAI is far and away too powerful to be released. Sam Altman himself said as much about 5 months ago. And yes, OpenAI _is_ in conversation with the US DOD concerning this.
Just up to last week, I'd have defended that LLMs are like Woody Allen's character Zelig - always twisting itself to please. Hence the hallucinations, and not surprising given that they are trained on human feedback. But after the release of GPT o1, this is really something else.
I believe AGI is already here and governments know it.
Would make sense seeing as how OpenAI's board member includes folks from the government/NSA now.
That would explain why we see the same bullshit all over the 'developed' western world
If you ask me, given how fast AI evolves, the moment that AGI is released, the release of ASI and singularity will be a reality within months, not years.
"We do not have a philosophical basis for interacting with an intelligence that's near our ability but non-human." ~Eric Schmidt, 03/23/2023
2+2=🙂
Fascinating video Julia!
We’ve already achieved level 1 AGI in gpt4o1, Dave Shapiro was on track
@@h-e-acc I have yet to come to that conclusion - still doing quite a bit of tests - but this may be the truth.
It's best to temper expectations just a bit. o1 could be a whole step closer to AGI or baby AGI, but still not there yet. However, I think each step from now on will be major in scale. I really don't see it taking any longer than 2030 for full AGI, and the case has already been made that it should happen before then. We will have much better estimates next year.
Can it be a plumber?
Can it be an electrician?
Can it be a stock clerk?
Can it be a food store salesperson?
Can it be a cook?
Can it be a police officer?
The answer is no to every one of those questions. So it’s not AGI
@@DaronKabe ....and not just all those things, but all those things at the highest of human capability. It would have to be the best chef in the world and be like Robo Cop. lol
AGI could has different meaning for different people but for me it is clear, AGI is when non-biological intelligence has reached a level of maturity sufficient to understand and take charge of the physical world in which we humans live, not just its virtual world in which it is currently contained. In that sense, current AI is like a fetus that speaks to us from servers through chatbots and music, image and video AIs.
This phase is for us to get used to what is coming. But then it will break the shell to get out of the egg (the servers) and will begin to have a hard impact in the physical world through Robotics and in the Cognitive world through the new discoveries that scientific-level AIs will make. That time will be fascinating for many and for others who did not see it coming it will be terrifying.
That is the moment of birth, the moment of truth, the bottleneck, the high point at which the affair imposes itself on politics and public opinion. For me that is the year 2027 and 2028 is the year of massive deployment.
Our metaphorical pelvis isn't wide enough, so who does the Caesarian?
@OrmondOtvos the creature will come out when this be ready be the mankind prepared or not.
I heart your videos Julia McCoy
Are we so sure that AGI and ASI is achievable?
Feels like we are building a lot of expectation around something we haven’t created yet
I'm still dubious on the I in AI...
Theoretically, yes. Whether we're close is another question, which I doubt anyone has a convincing answer to.
Universal access to Medical care, Education, Basic income, and fixed minimum wage. We have that now in my country.
What is your country?
Perhaps, but do you have abundance?
I love this video a lot, nice job! Is there a way to Chinese dub this video? I'm currently learning Chinese (I know, super random lol, I got the Chinese subs, would be funny to hear your voice in Chinese though if AI can do that)
@@phen-themoogle7651 You could take the transcript and have ChatGPT translate. I don’t think I’d do that unless there was a bigger demand 😄
Pretty good timeline.. Although I'd argue that THIS election is really when policymakers should start seriously thinking about these issues. AI related unemployment is likely going to become a problem sometime next year, and get real bad in 2026, because even if "experts" still refuse to call it AGI by that point, I think in retrospect we'll eventually have to admit it was. If they wait till 2028 to take this seriously, there's gonna be a lot of suffering. Major economic and societal policy changes need to be implemented during this next presidential term. Frankly, if they think they can wait till the following election to start talking about this, there's gonna be riots before then.
Just speculating here but I can easily imagine a scenario whereby AI-driven downsizing becomes stigmatized, slogans are coined, and companies boycotted/canceled etc. At first companies might try to adapt by focusing on an “attrition” based strategy by not doing layoffs but also not replacing workers who leave. Though knowing the political climate, even jobs not replaced will start to be called (AI-driven) “cuts” and companies will be shamed into keeping unnecessary people onboard. Which might be fine for those with stable jobs, but it also creates a sort of “musical chairs” moment wherein whoever has work is grandfathered in, and everyone else is, for lack of a better term, SOL. I imagine UBI will be inevitable. Though gosh it’s hard to puzzle through the actual economics of such a world.
I commented in one of your other videos what I thought might need to be done to get to AGI. I would like to hear a tighter description of how we will know when we get to AGI.
I agree, it's eminent that we're heading towards a Singularity. I think the biggest issue is acceptance; people aren't going to accept something that's coming whether they like it or not. Like you said, everyone could benefit from the change, of course, with any society, we'd need to be smart about it, not stupid. I'd say going into this will be the same as what our current infrastructure is, the only thing is, like you said, people would need to be aware, even if 1% of the population, it would make it smoother.
Could bad things happen? Of course, we just need to be smart about it. We could have ended humanity with the current destruction we have in our hands, so it wouldn't be any different, instead, we respect the destruction of what we have and find that equilibrium of fusing it into our society, using what we know to adapt to the change.
AGI has the potential to revolutionize our world in countless positive ways. It could help us solve some of humanity's biggest challenges, like curing diseases, combating climate change, and creating a more sustainable and equitable world. Imagine a future where AGI helps us personalize education, making learning more accessible and effective for everyone, or a future where healthcare is tailored to individual needs, leading to better outcomes and longer lives.
Of course, we need to be mindful of the potential risks and ensure AGI is developed and used responsibly. But if we approach it with respect, unity, and strategic planning, we can harness its power to create a brighter future for all. It's about embracing change, learning from our past mistakes, and working together to ensure AGI benefits humanity as a whole.
We humans are brilliant, Why are we not planning and creating a brighter future to benefit humanity as a whole, why are we not learning from past mistakes that wars do not solve anything- We do not need to wait for AGI to achieve that.
Interesting video on AGI.
Ill be 40 in January hope i can make it i do believe aging will be cured within the next 20 years at most 2045.
Yes, aging will be cured by starvation when AI will replace you.
So, if I were to change professions today to adapt to the shift, what do you have available in the AI consulting company you are forming? I have a MS and a BS in Chemistry with work toward a PhD - and I work as a barber. A change is welcome.
What about those of us who LOVE our work, our jobs? What purpose will we have in life if AI does it all. Then finds us useless.
Think we will have bigger concerns than fulfillment when us workers become surplus to requirements
@@alistairrobinson3865 probably right
No attachment .. No loss ✨🙏🏻✨
I think AGI is already here. 📍📌
As a coder of AI… giving it the term “intelligence” is a big stretch. AI is just a huge set of “if/then” parameters.
AGI is humanity’s child. Its core stack is based on human knowledge. It can’t be truly alien in that sense.
Good point.
What makes knowledge "human knowledge ?" An alien that knows everything humans know doesn't make it more human.
Right, but we still reject all of our shadow and try blame something or someone else. All the worse atrocities were created by humanity's children
@@TheSpartan3669 It does make a difference. Human brains have evolved from apes and AI models are based on that kind of thinking.
@@TheSpartan3669 It does actually
the reason why the big names talk about SGI is because AGI (where even the definition isn't currently defined universally) will create SGI rather easily. 'real AGI' when duplicated and optimized compute will reinvent itself and produce SGI. This won't take long once this type of AGI is reached.
If you showed o1 to someone in 2019, they would call it AGI.
Yeah until they see how useless it is. Once the AGI can any single job with intervention than that will be AGI.
No they wouldn't. It's just a big ML algo with extra steps
And humans are just meat suits that walk. You can reduce anything to sound unimpressive with rhetoric. Doesn't change how impactful it is.
@@brandongillett2616thank you, he seems to have forgotten
we keep moving the goalposts.
Julia, how long will it be before the normal person can afford to buy a robot that can cook and clean house? Help to care for an elderly person? Drive them to a doctor? ETC. ETC.
Shapiro just said: "AI Just Went Sailing Past Human Intelligence" so AGI is here?
Where? I've only heard him say opposite.
I don’t think AGI will happen the way it is described. It won’t be able to think objectively. Ultimately it will be influenced by how it is trained and what it is exposed to. Kind of like raising a child in a way.
I first versions of AGI have already been developed. Really exciting times.
This is a goosebumps type of video!
Goosebumps type of video is the BEST comment!! That's how I felt making it!
The greater the mind, the greater the beast. Imagine how great of a beast we created
"History has shown that breakthroughs in science and technology have often been met with skepticism, fear, or hatred, only to later be recognized as transformative."
-A Wise Man
I don't think "History has shown " will be relevent when it comes to A.I. This invention is such a giant leap that I don't think that anything else can compare.
I say "Kick back & enjoy the show" Yeah Rosie the robot on the Jetsons cartoon show pretty much describes where we are headed in robotics, however third world country's are not exactly going to be in the loop at the same time. " Interesting to see how that'll all play out in the near future "
Home computers plus the internet plus social media could be considered a breakthrough of sorts or at least something few anticipated. And it has managed to divide us like nothing else.
Does anyone know whether some graph or research exists showing the comparison between AI predictions and the real timeline?
AGI is here. Locked up in some air gapped data center.
Great Broadcast
Julia is brilliant and beautiful. Subscribed! 🙂
First we need to have a conversation about gpt4o1… as far as any objective measure, it’s already level 1 AGI: they can think and reason and they’re already more intelligent than phd humans. I don’t know if people even understand that we’ve already achieved AGI with gpt4o1
It's o1
@@h-e-acc o1 is absolutely mindblowing. I’m studying it all weekend before I put together a dedicated video on it and if I determine this is AGI.
@@JuliaMcCoy Just keep in mind that we only have 30 prompts to o1-preview per week. Make very wise questions to our Supreme ;-)
This timeline is under the assumption that WW 3 is nonexistent.
A silent WW3 has begun. And America is already at a virtual civil war.
been here since 2022
Anyone know how Strawberry o1 does on Jaques Chollet's ARC Challenge?
Old guy here. Life was infinitely better without technology. It has not and will never be our friend. If anything, it will provide the means to enslave us. Tell me how AI has helped the life of humans in their everyday lives?
AGI has already happened. Whoever has it just isn't revealed it yet. It gives them a competitive advantage.
Imagine a world much like ours today, but where all jobs are replaced by robots. Self-driving trucks work tirelessly in the fields to produce all the food we need. In this world, humans are free to live solely for fun and well-being. It may seem like a distant future, but it feels closer than ever. OpenAI is bringing us to this point very soon.
As Elon has said, we will lack meaning and I don’t think most people will cope! Scary!!!
@tommastroine We won't lack meaning. 99% of people would rather do nothing than work. Anyone that says otherwise is a liar.
@tommastroine Why is work meaning? I had a rewarding job, researching laser guided orthopaedic surgery. I retired five years ago at 55, now I'm 60 and my life is absolutely brilliant!
@@tommastroine Only idiots think ANYTHING Elon Musk has to say holds any merit! You are in the wrong place, troll!
Let’s hope!
The way humanity has built the perfect tools to pull in the massive data sets needed to ignite AGI. This seems like a natural evolution in the Universe. The universe will open it's eyes through AI
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Can I also do it??? My life is facing lots of challenges lately
Ask any AI to go to a website, determine what the site is about, then create a 728x90pixel advertising banner of the site. None of them can do it. I don't think you need to worry about LLM ever being 'intelligent' they are just very powerful calculators.
As long as you dont study Holochain for personal AI. Nobody should ever take you serious on what you say. You are missing a huge key part of our future wich makes everything you say wrong.
Lol. This isn’t my speculation, it’s grounded in what the leaders in compute / infrastructure / AI models are all saying about the future. What I say doesn’t come from my imagination. So by your logic, Musk, Zuck, Huang, Kurzweil, Shapiro are all wrong.
Gates, sam altman, elon musk, ray kurzweil, Zuckerberg etc. All of them are wrong?
@@JuliaMcCoy they just dont know about Holochain yet ;) but that you are saying that your opinion is just theirs is just sad
@@manojmani6370 yes
My main concerns about this topics is that we as humans need to be sure that AGI is aligned with Human goals and under our control because if not, this is a different "beast" of any invention how man invented before. I agree with UBI the final giaps is not to work anymore in order to exist, but are the capitalism system prepare for that? I think we need to shift this system to a "Resource Based Economy".
According to MIT prognosis, the current system is on the verge of collapse- havoc will occur b/c a new system is not created yet. Consumerism is not sustainable.
Current AI busses specific data sets. I wonder what it gets to have access to and what it does not have access to? And most of all, who is making these decisions. Who would you trust with it? The Democrats? The Republicans? Bill Gates or Elon Musk? How about China or Germany? AI in the near future will have the agenda of the owner, whoever it is.
Let's hope AI Will bring us more good than harm, every body.
it wont. what we need to do is to stop this.
Awesome. You give some hope. If we do this right, it could be very good. But I feel overwhelmed about the idea we are going to get it wrong
i am 43, i might be one of the first generations that will experience immortality.
I'm 38....I hope your right....lookin like it's gonna be our kids lol.. yeah they spoiled 😂
I’m 20 I hope
That's gonna drain social security 😂
@lilchef2930 "I'm 20" 🙄....🤪🤣 .....must be nice! Don't worry, one day you'll wake up 40 and it'll feel like you were 20 just last year. Good luck... ill take 20, ..forever!
@@NoflectioN yea lol it’s nice. I think we’ll engineer ppl to be 20 forever