Was digging through the archives and came across this absolute gem from the 1996 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting! I figured this was the perfect video to share today (2019/2020) with people asking the tricky question of whether they should wait to buy stocks or jump into the markets. Leave your thoughts below. 📈📚 As always, if you're a beginner to the Stock Market and you're looking for a step-by-step blueprint on how to get started... Find out more about our Investing Academy here - bit.ly/InvestingAcademy. Thanks for watching! :D
Yea... Except right now he is sitting on more cash than he ever has in his life, and for several years. So this advice isn't as prudent now as it was in 1996. He has said the market is too expensive now
Ryan240944 I believe he has actually said that stocks are not ‘too expensive’ due to the ongoing low interest rates. He has said this many times over the past two years when pressed on it in interviews. As for sitting on the most cash ever, Berkshire Hathaway continually grows so many times in any ten year period that statement would be true. I agree he likely feels most markets are fully priced and his cash stockpiles are big but credit is easy so the market is not looking to Berkshire for money for investment as often.
M D ok.... I’ll just leave you with this article and save myself from correcting your opinion. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-record-122-billion-cash-warns-crash-2019-8-1028476169
There is a reason why Buffett mumbled around without giving a direct answer. He is a value investor. He will not buy a business at any price. He hates cash, but his aversion to paying too much for businesses surpasses his hate for cash. Take a hint. Read chapter 20 of The Intelligent Investor at least. That's what Buffett explicitly recommended.
Yeah, I was very confused by his reply when all of his quotes are about buying fear and selling greed and having a wash bucket out when it's raining gold. He also emphasizes it's about the price you pay, same as Seth Klarman. If you pay too much to get into a good company, it doesn't matter how good the company is, you won't make very much in your investment. And Buffett did sort of hint at that in his reply.
Ultimately, he cant give all the secrets. He gives just enough to show you he is good at what he does so you can be confident to invest in BRK. All businesses criticize their competitors more than anyone else. Now ask yourself, who does buffett criticize the most? Stock brokers. Salesman vs salesman.
That's good news and bad news. He is so good that Berkshire without him is a questionable investment. With him around, you can be sure that buying more BRK when share price plunges means great value. Without him, the unsystematic risk is off the chart, especially for those who use BRK as a "savings account." If BRK is not a company that even an idiot can run well, then it is a huge ticking time bomb.
In other words buy a 'wonderful' business today - don't worry about the price of the stock when a market 'crash'/correction occurs. If you have available capital buy more of the business - taking advantage of the lower stock price. A good business is still a good business whether there's a stock market crash or not. Don't be too hung up about day-day, month to month or even year to year stock price movements. Wise words indeed
Here’s my thoughts: We shouldn’t wait for a crash because we cannot time the market. It’s foolish to think you can, but I do believe piling a shit tonne of cash for such a rainy day because when a crash occurs, it is the closest we can possibly get to “timing”. The market will recover after some time, it has to happen, and the longer you stay in the market the lest riskier it gets, but I like to believe that a crash is a golden opportunity to buy because the best companies are discounted quite nicely and the crap companies are filtered out by bankruptcy. Buy as much as you can....but that’s providing that you’ve done the research before hand so when the crash occurs you already know what targets to look for. Always stay ready and prepared for the golden opportunity that life occasionally throws at you. And whilst a crash wipes out some, it’s a gold mine for us.
Funny that Warren Talked in codes in this one. For some odd reason, he did not just say it straight out. He made it much harder to understand the answer than it should have been. - The simple answer was "no" "waiting for a depression or scandal that maybe wont come in the near future is not what I have done"
Forget what he says, watch what he does. He holds a TON (130B at present) of cash when the market is overvalued and deploys cash when it's cheap. This time in the market beats timing the market may have some truth, but depends on your goals. If you're retired or nearly, better to sit in short term bonds and wait for the market to unwind and start a position when stocks are not so overvalued. Takes some knowledge vs buy and hold forever. Remember, NONE of the original DOW companies are still listed. Most have gone bankrupt, the others merged. This question is too complicated for a 10 word answer.
G G your exactly right. Long term you will make money regardless of entry point. But getting in at record levels can cost you months or years. You can bet buffet didn’t buy record highs.
@Green Giant When H1N1 was rampant (swine flu), I knew of someone who invested in livestock and made quite a bit of profit once the scare died down. Contrarian investing is a popular thing to do. However, my dad is an investment banker and even though he slightly beat S&P500 average for three years, the time investment required to do so wasn't worth it. Parking most of your money is probably the best thing you can do :D. I think Coronavirus is overblown, but we'll see. From third party news sources (not CDC), it appears the fatality rate is 2% which isn't too bad. Unfortunately, that's so low a lot of people aren't taking it seriously which may make it spread more rampantly. If 2% of 50,000 die, that's sad, but a different story than 2% of 9Billion dying. Hope it works out.
Sometimes you can learn something from the comments but it's mainly noise that needs filtered out. I even filter out the news. Follow a few highly knowledgeable who can guide, somewhat.
@Tamal Ghosh if you're buying and selling growth stocks, yes. But if you stick to low risk, dividend earning stocks and reinvest the dividends, you can make money over time. Just don't overreact to drops. I'm just a carpenter, no financial schooling at all. I've been making money. Compounding dividends is a great way to use the stock market to your advantage.
@@cliffordlevy3918 Just make sure the dividend stocks is also a long term investment perspective rather than a high yielding dividend stock that you just choose simply because it gives out more. Dividend stock is risky as it is something you might just wanna forget and not go into a lot of details which is the major allure of dividend investing strategy. Risky in a way that it makes you hold on a losing decaying company just because it gives you dividends. An example would be Buffet's Kraft&Heinz investment. He said he overpaid for the company itself(specifically kraft and not heinz). He still holds the the company even though it's struggling but that's mainly because of his long term perspective for heinz products that it will keep going. Now my example would be what if it's a similar stuggling company? Kraft & Heinz pays high dividends as well but the question becomes did you buy it because it pays high dividends or you bought it because you look at the company thoroughly. The former reason is very risky because it traps you into holding a losing company and could wipe out your profit dividends altogether and a potential major loss.
@@D3STINY22 I'm careful when it comes to picking my low risk stocks. I don't chase big yields. I'd be lying if I told you all my picks have been winners. But overall I do just fine. I like utilities and residential apartment REITS. People always need power and water. And there will always be poor people to fill up apartments. Especially during an economic down turn. Being Canadian, I mostly buy Canadian companies. I had a portfolio of 1 utility and 1 bank stock during the recession. They both dropped below what I paid. Instead of panicking I bought more (I was making decent money at the time.) The Canadian market quickly corrected itself, and those two stocks made a lot of money for me. I only buy low risk dividend paying stocks with lowish payout ratios. I don't chase yields. In fact I trust no stock with a yield over %7, regardless of the payout ratio. The mistakes you just mentioned, I do none of them. I do, and will continue to do just fine. What do you invest in? Gold and BTC?
@@cliffordlevy3918 Just a passing warning because people often make a mistake and wonder why it happens. And it's impossible for all the picks to be a winner in the stock market so no harm there. REITS are amazing which I often quite buy as well. Gold and BTC have no value for me. Only if I were to do gold then I would use options strategy(Iron Condors, selling covered calls/puts, etc...) for that but I don't buy/hold it. BTC on the other hand is an emerging new market that produces no value other than currency exchange and a lot of volatility due to new "investors" overhyping it. Both have the same problem of not producing anything which I don't quite invest/trade those types. I often pick stocks/companies that have a great outlook in the years to come. To name one would be TSLA. There was a time where it wasn't doing well back in 2018 - 2019 and was in a major downtrend and I bought it at around $285ish because I valued the company's Intrinsic value to be a massive discount. Currently they are now valued at $887 and now I have a massive ROI of 300%+. FB, BABA, MSFT, BA, DIS, JNJ to name a few are the companies im holding onto (although BA is struggling, it's no problem as I can use options to protect my position) and each one covered by options. People often underestimate the flexibility of options. You could probably use that for your own stocks/companies as well. Because you'll just get an extra income on top of the stocks rising/dividend pay. So Stock+Dividends+Premium to maximize profits.
My translation from Warren Buffett is don’t wait around for the opportunity because time in the market is best, but if the opportunity is there, obviously you’ll benefit from it.
If you had bought $50k worth of stock split between these 3 companies - they would be worth well over 1 million $ . The dividends of these holdings would be paying an annual return more than the original price of investment.
I feel that a simple adage goes a long way here: A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. A great company at a fair price is worth more than waiting for it to go down, it may go up
Well, my good friend is waiting for next big crash for around five years (the same time all big media is shouting crash is comming this “year”) , we are up around 120+% ... so that is the answer ... even if big crash will come tomorrow , by waiting he lost a lot of money ... if you are really not sure , do monthly /quarter/ or year deposits . Easy , next question :-)
R F yes, Lucky people (that were waiting 6 years for crash) that virus show Up , else they will wait couple of more years... but anyway ... still walid answer :-)
The big money are made in this times when the market drops shrply/depression/crash..Warren is from the golden days where everything rose for 30+ years non stop. And he even admit it him self. Today things are different. Everything is OverValued. And depression around the corner. Maybe even a crash.
I agree, as a trader myself the markets have became way more efficient. There are a lot more nuances that has to be implied to make any good roi. Buying panics is one of them. I wouldnt recommend investing right now since you are buying in potential tops regarding an overdue bull market. Now i’m not specialized in investing because i’m not interested to make 5-10% a year. I make that in a week sometimes. But i do have a good knowledge about supply and demand, market structure and sentiment. And buying up in frontside panics gives you a much better roi then buying in tops hoping for the market to return in a few years while your cash is stuck. If it is stuck, let it atleast make you money is my analogy.
Having a enormous amount of money, like $130 Billion is a problem on itself. Normal and conventional investing principles doesn’t always apply at this level. You have so much money that, if you decide to enter the market with so much volume, you’ll make unwanted movements in price because of your volume. A good analogy would be newtonian physics and einstein physics. Newton and his laws and theories of physics are entirely correct and used broadly around the world for almost any engineering work, but at extreme levels of energy and speed (let’s say the speed of light) the laws and theories Albert Einstein developed are more correct and more properly explain what is going on. The same applies to investing, $ 130B is much more harder and difficult to move and place than just “some” millions. With that amount of money, you are not taking a bite, you’re eating the whole food. It better not be a poisonous one, because you can survive if you take a bite, but you’ll be dead if you eat it whole.
Amazing, what a great advice! If our eyes on the long term, the future, it’s never too late to start Whatever it’s starting a company, investing in a company, learning something new…
Warren is saying it's okay to buy as long as it's "buying below intrinsic value" i.e. as long as the price is reasonable. but how exactly do you calculate intrinsic value?
The key words here are @5:16 "when the price sounds reasonable". Currently Buffett has 40% in cash. Don't just buy at any time guys. Wait for a reasonable price for great companies. EG: Buffett waited for Amazon to drop 20% before buying this year.
Take any major event as a bonus. You can't wait to buy when there was a crash. Last one was 12 years ago and the Dow surged since then. You would have missed on those gains if you waited.
*If someone has never invested, they should do their research and just make the plunge. Stocks are high, they can go lower, but they will most likely go higher in the future. It's interesting, I started to invest a year after this event.* 👍
I would agree, but emphasize the "do their research" part of your statement. This is all about personal judgement. If you've looked into a company and think it's a good long term investment then just go for it. The opportunity cost of waiting is higher than what you might save by waiting for it to dip. But make sure you understand why it's a good investment, and don't just take someone else's word for it.
- Invest in great companies without waiting for market crashes (0:13) - Look for businesses that will remain strong over the long term (1:41) - Avoid attempting to time the market due to the rarity of opportunities (2:44) - Make investment decisions based on business quality and reasonable pricing (5:00) - Capitalize on unexpected funds during market lows to invest wisely (5:38)
04/05/20, I got Goosebumps when he Said that we would need to see a flu epidemic and right now we're going through the Corona virus which shut down the American economy instantly
In my opinion, if u are going to buy more shares of a business when it falls down sharply...why not buy more of it when the stock crashes because it will not crash forever. It will eventually go up and give u a satisfying profit but only if u buy shares when it was down.
Invest regularly what you are willing to risk losing without affecting your life. But also keep a proper hidden stash that you can deploy during crashes. Because neither of them is a wrong. The biggest player in the market is always TIME
"epidemic" - volatility is here boys n girls. and with volatility comes massive opportunities to get in on the strongest performers dirt cheap. as a young investor that missed the Great Recession as I was only just starting in the workforce in 2009, its time to sow those stock seeds for long-term gains.
It's a tough question. Folks like Buffett and Klarman of Baupost will horde cash for years to avoid losses and accept losing out on potentially massive returns. If you're going to hold for decades, then sure, buy now. But in an overheated economy, like in 2019, it's important to consider the high probability of recession, hold cash, and be resilient. An important lesson from Intelligent investor makes clear that to make up for a loss, you need an investment to produce 200% gain to break even. So, a balanced approach means keeping investments you believe in but being weary of irrational exuberance and having a healthy amount of caution in your investment selections, especially if you're looking at stocks
In my opinion and what I think about stock market is if we invest money in stocks we never looses money because we see the looses is temporary and one more thing I never invest money but you guys are tell me about my opinion is right or wrong?
No. Single companies can permanently lose value, or crash and burn completely. Just look at what happened to IBM or Deutsche Bank over the last decade for instance; The former is not even close to as relevant as they were in the 00s, or indeed most decades before that, whereas Deutsche Bank has completely imploded with their stock being worth just over 5% over what it was at its peak. That’s not a typo, if you bought Deutsche Bank at peak valuation you’d have lost nearly all of your money if held it until now. It’s why average people are recommended to invest in index funds instead; For relatively small fees you’re exposed to a much more significant portion of the market, which historically has kept climbing far outpacing the crashes and depressions occurring over the last century. This is still not risk free even if it holds up indefinitely (which is of course not a guarantee either, but nothing in life is a ever guaranteed), because if it’s down it’s down and if you need to cash out for any reason you stand to lose money from that, which is why the general advice is when you’re investing do so with money you’re not going to need at a moments notice. Ideally, be prepared to hold on to investments of this sort for years to decades and plan cashing out years in advance waiting for an opportune moment. There are also people doing day trading and trying to make money that way, but that’s much harder to do with any sort of consistency and there’s plenty of evidence that most people trying this ending up with no better and often significantly worse returns than those that simply buy a bunch of stuff and hold on to it.
this is for a general rule. if the markets average p/e is high, we are in the longest bull market ever and prices are at all time highs, and the yield curve inverted in the past year, it may be best to wait a little. or at least take out your investments in at the end of the year. 1/30/2020
In India if the BSE Sensex P/E is near 25 then you should not put bulk in Sensex or Nifty funds. Near 18 P/E means market is steady and below 18 P/E means it's going down.
Admire Mr. Buffett a great deal, but this is not the approach he took with his partnership (prior to Berkshire) and it is also not the approach espoused by Ben Graham in Security Analysis or The Intelligent Investor. The future return of any investment will also be dependant upon the price paid, regardless of how great or lousy the business might be.
I feel like he's being consistent but not phrasing it well. He supports buying stocks at what seems to be "fair" values for good businesses because their growth potential will likely end up being higher in the long-run of 30+ years. But also he is limited in that as berkshire hathaway has grown, its become harder to deploy capital at larger size amounts. But when he was starting out in his career, he had smaller money to manage, which meant that he could get in and out of positions more quickly.
2:55 Atm we are in the midst of the Covid-19 Outbreak... So i find this analogy amusing seeing as this was only just recently uploaded last November... Lol (I know the original vid was made in 1996) :)
The "goodness" of the business is what matters when you buy, along with reasonable financial indicators. A market crash is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things :)
I've had a savings plan for years now. I quite like the thought of the price of the plan going down because I can buy more in the months when prices decline. When the stock market recovers (which it has always done quite spectacularly) I've made a gain. A win-win scenario.
@@socrates_the_great6209 Warren has been on record saying that the best time to buy stocks is during a 'stock market crash' summed up by his quote 'Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy'. My point I was trying to make was a 'stock market crash' shouldn't be seen negatively. If you buy something from a shop you want the price to be as low as possible.
Good businesses in and of itself is not enough. If you buy a business regardless of price because you think the business is going to do well, that's the wrong approach. A good business, with the price low relative to earnings/owner's earnings is the formula.
Hello I am from India. And all stocks are falling due to COVID-19, is this good time to invest? What should I take in consideration while buying stocks right now?
Hi, pals. So I'm that one guy that decided to wait and here I am, with the flu epidemic and my mortician dad, he's getting rich and I bought the big ones for a relatively cheap price. Patience is a virtue.
i plan on investing via etrade this week. It seems to good to be true. shares in most industries are so low right now. Should i just invest 90% of my money and wait for the market to get back to normal?
If the overall market is too high or if a stock is too expensive - just wait for a correction. Use any spare money to put into your home loan offset account, pay off debts or 401K. Wait for that "fat pitch". Most people don't have a lot of money to invest like Buffett.
thats why you always stay in to some degree, even when you think things are overpriced... look at 1990 - 2000 for example, people probably thought things were expensive from 96-98. If you got out then you missed 100-200% returns... if you're seriously fearful of a crash just keep 20-30% of your portfolio in cash but don't sell out in total.
I just recently started investing for the long term. Stocks are always going to go up so might as well hop in now and average down when the stock is low.
Funny actually, watching this in February 2020 and the whole Corona Virus shit is about to hit the fan at the markets! Might as well buy wonderful businesses
What he said is true, but his personal savings before 2008 were all bonds (why?) and then he claimed to change them to all stocks in that famous “Buy America. I am.” article. Timing matters, especially when others are greedy
Was digging through the archives and came across this absolute gem from the 1996 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting! I figured this was the perfect video to share today (2019/2020) with people asking the tricky question of whether they should wait to buy stocks or jump into the markets. Leave your thoughts below.
📈📚 As always, if you're a beginner to the Stock Market and you're looking for a step-by-step blueprint on how to get started... Find out more about our Investing Academy here - bit.ly/InvestingAcademy.
Thanks for watching! :D
@@moresugartradercc2744 almost a quarter decade later... insane stuff. Thanks man you're welcome :)
Brandon Beavis Investing a quarter of a century?
Yea... Except right now he is sitting on more cash than he ever has in his life, and for several years. So this advice isn't as prudent now as it was in 1996. He has said the market is too expensive now
Ryan240944 I believe he has actually said that stocks are not ‘too expensive’ due to the ongoing low interest rates. He has said this many times over the past two years when pressed on it in interviews.
As for sitting on the most cash ever, Berkshire Hathaway continually grows so many times in any ten year period that statement would be true.
I agree he likely feels most markets are fully priced and his cash stockpiles are big but credit is easy so the market is not looking to Berkshire for money for investment as often.
M D ok.... I’ll just leave you with this article and save myself from correcting your opinion. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-record-122-billion-cash-warns-crash-2019-8-1028476169
Time in the market beats timing the market.
my dick in the market beats timing the market.
@gre deer did you wait for 20-40 years after buying at all time high
You should always have some dry powder available.
2020 is a great year to go all in. Pay day coming 2050 ☺️ time in the market!
@@falakoala4579 😁
Patience is what rich people develop,making money is what follows.
Well the flu epidemic is here so time to start buying 🤑🤑🤑
MUAHAHAHAHA
Yeah, really. Boom.
It could get alot worse before it gets better, then the slow uncertainty of future growth in a world recession. Spend it on a holiday in the future
yewwww
@@Robbo1966 don't fight the fed
"Phil would you stand up? Phil is, uh, 99..."
maybe we don't ask Phil to stand up anymore.
Do you know, who was phil and what is the name of his book?
@@josepha3486 Phil Carret and the book is called "the art of speculation"
Thank you@@lintna
There is a reason why Buffett mumbled around without giving a direct answer. He is a value investor. He will not buy a business at any price. He hates cash, but his aversion to paying too much for businesses surpasses his hate for cash. Take a hint. Read chapter 20 of The Intelligent Investor at least. That's what Buffett explicitly recommended.
True
Yeah, I was very confused by his reply when all of his quotes are about buying fear and selling greed and having a wash bucket out when it's raining gold. He also emphasizes it's about the price you pay, same as Seth Klarman. If you pay too much to get into a good company, it doesn't matter how good the company is, you won't make very much in your investment. And Buffett did sort of hint at that in his reply.
Ultimately, he cant give all the secrets. He gives just enough to show you he is good at what he does so you can be confident to invest in BRK. All businesses criticize their competitors more than anyone else. Now ask yourself, who does buffett criticize the most? Stock brokers. Salesman vs salesman.
That's good news and bad news. He is so good that Berkshire without him is a questionable investment.
With him around, you can be sure that buying more BRK when share price plunges means great value.
Without him, the unsystematic risk is off the chart, especially for those who use BRK as a "savings account."
If BRK is not a company that even an idiot can run well, then it is a huge ticking time bomb.
this advice is indirectely coming from charlei munger.
In other words buy a 'wonderful' business today - don't worry about the price of the stock when a market 'crash'/correction occurs. If you have available capital buy more of the business - taking advantage of the lower stock price. A good business is still a good business whether there's a stock market crash or not. Don't be too hung up about day-day, month to month or even year to year stock price movements. Wise words indeed
I always know what to buy I never know when
That's when technical analysis kicks in.
This is Warren Buffett speaking, I am sure he knows what he is doing
I never know what to buy I always know when
Pablo Morales TA is all BS. Historical prices have NOTHING to do with the price in the next minute. There is no such thing as stock “pattern”
@@alexanderchenf1 ok boomer
Here’s my thoughts:
We shouldn’t wait for a crash because we cannot time the market. It’s foolish to think you can, but I do believe piling a shit tonne of cash for such a rainy day because when a crash occurs, it is the closest we can possibly get to “timing”. The market will recover after some time, it has to happen, and the longer you stay in the market the lest riskier it gets, but I like to believe that a crash is a golden opportunity to buy because the best companies are discounted quite nicely and the crap companies are filtered out by bankruptcy.
Buy as much as you can....but that’s providing that you’ve done the research before hand so when the crash occurs you already know what targets to look for. Always stay ready and prepared for the golden opportunity that life occasionally throws at you. And whilst a crash wipes out some, it’s a gold mine for us.
Great, but technical analysis can be used to time the stock to get a better price as we should always get more value for less price.
Funny that Warren Talked in codes in this one. For some odd reason, he did not just say it straight out. He made it much harder to understand the answer than it should have been. - The simple answer was "no" "waiting for a depression or scandal that maybe wont come in the near future is not what I have done"
boo the man who thinks he understand warren buffet thought process enough to paraphrase him
Forget what he says, watch what he does. He holds a TON (130B at present) of cash when the market is overvalued and deploys cash when it's cheap. This time in the market beats timing the market may have some truth, but depends on your goals. If you're retired or nearly, better to sit in short term bonds and wait for the market to unwind and start a position when stocks are not so overvalued. Takes some knowledge vs buy and hold forever. Remember, NONE of the original DOW companies are still listed. Most have gone bankrupt, the others merged. This question is too complicated for a 10 word answer.
G G your exactly right. Long term you will make money regardless of entry point. But getting in at record levels can cost you months or years. You can bet buffet didn’t buy record highs.
Or just simply follow his method. 70% stocks 30% cash?
2:52 “wait for a flu epidemic”
Green Giant yeah, my portfolio dropped $10,000 the last two days
@Green Giant When H1N1 was rampant (swine flu), I knew of someone who invested in livestock and made quite a bit of profit once the scare died down. Contrarian investing is a popular thing to do. However, my dad is an investment banker and even though he slightly beat S&P500 average for three years, the time investment required to do so wasn't worth it. Parking most of your money is probably the best thing you can do :D. I think Coronavirus is overblown, but we'll see. From third party news sources (not CDC), it appears the fatality rate is 2% which isn't too bad. Unfortunately, that's so low a lot of people aren't taking it seriously which may make it spread more rampantly. If 2% of 50,000 die, that's sad, but a different story than 2% of 9Billion dying. Hope it works out.
Save all in cash and take a trip to Vegas remember with faith you will triple you gains
Everyone is a stock expert in the comment section apparently.
Brencho Yes, they're all worth billions, which is why they've got time to watch this. Maybe they're all Greek taxi drivers, they know a thing or two.
Just like in reddit, everyone is a lawyer.
Yeah you are right, but two minds are better than one, we all need these comments.
Sometimes you can learn something from the comments but it's mainly noise that needs filtered out.
I even filter out the news. Follow a few highly knowledgeable who can guide, somewhat.
@@thecapone45 judge*
“Flu epidemic” 😷 Well, here we are....
I'm waiting for an apocalypse to buy a Tesla stock.
too late now
F it, buy it.
Lol Tesla hit $1000 a share yesterday. You should've bought
@@orvvro if only you knew what tesla was gonna be at now
@@MrNativeBeast I didn't, but I bought 9 months ago
Buy when you have the money. Buy more when it dips.
You should always have some dry powder available.
@Tamal Ghosh if you're buying and selling growth stocks, yes. But if you stick to low risk, dividend earning stocks and reinvest the dividends, you can make money over time. Just don't overreact to drops. I'm just a carpenter, no financial schooling at all. I've been making money. Compounding dividends is a great way to use the stock market to your advantage.
@@cliffordlevy3918
Just make sure the dividend stocks is also a long term investment perspective rather than a high yielding dividend stock that you just choose simply because it gives out more. Dividend stock is risky as it is something you might just wanna forget and not go into a lot of details which is the major allure of dividend investing strategy. Risky in a way that it makes you hold on a losing decaying company just because it gives you dividends. An example would be Buffet's Kraft&Heinz investment. He said he overpaid for the company itself(specifically kraft and not heinz). He still holds the the company even though it's struggling but that's mainly because of his long term perspective for heinz products that it will keep going. Now my example would be what if it's a similar stuggling company? Kraft & Heinz pays high dividends as well but the question becomes did you buy it because it pays high dividends or you bought it because you look at the company thoroughly. The former reason is very risky because it traps you into holding a losing company and could wipe out your profit dividends altogether and a potential major loss.
@@D3STINY22 I'm careful when it comes to picking my low risk stocks. I don't chase big yields. I'd be lying if I told you all my picks have been winners. But overall I do just fine. I like utilities and residential apartment REITS. People always need power and water. And there will always be poor people to fill up apartments. Especially during an economic down turn.
Being Canadian, I mostly buy Canadian companies. I had a portfolio of 1 utility and 1 bank stock during the recession. They both dropped below what I paid. Instead of panicking I bought more (I was making decent money at the time.) The Canadian market quickly corrected itself, and those two stocks made a lot of money for me. I only buy low risk dividend paying stocks with lowish payout ratios. I don't chase yields. In fact I trust no stock with a yield over %7, regardless of the payout ratio. The mistakes you just mentioned, I do none of them. I do, and will continue to do just fine. What do you invest in? Gold and BTC?
@@cliffordlevy3918
Just a passing warning because people often make a mistake and wonder why it happens. And it's impossible for all the picks to be a winner in the stock market so no harm there. REITS are amazing which I often quite buy as well.
Gold and BTC have no value for me. Only if I were to do gold then I would use options strategy(Iron Condors, selling covered calls/puts, etc...) for that but I don't buy/hold it. BTC on the other hand is an emerging new market that produces no value other than currency exchange and a lot of volatility due to new "investors" overhyping it. Both have the same problem of not producing anything which I don't quite invest/trade those types.
I often pick stocks/companies that have a great outlook in the years to come. To name one would be TSLA. There was a time where it wasn't doing well back in 2018 - 2019 and was in a major downtrend and I bought it at around $285ish because I valued the company's Intrinsic value to be a massive discount. Currently they are now valued at $887 and now I have a massive ROI of 300%+. FB, BABA, MSFT, BA, DIS, JNJ to name a few are the companies im holding onto (although BA is struggling, it's no problem as I can use options to protect my position) and each one covered by options. People often underestimate the flexibility of options. You could probably use that for your own stocks/companies as well. Because you'll just get an extra income on top of the stocks rising/dividend pay. So Stock+Dividends+Premium to maximize profits.
I would say the most important take away from this would be too keep a cash position on the side for amazing opportunities when they come along.
My translation from Warren Buffett is don’t wait around for the opportunity because time in the market is best, but if the opportunity is there, obviously you’ll benefit from it.
I think this video of Warren was from before the out-of-control ten-year bull market.
Agreed which is why a stock I initially wanted BA was a bit too high for me. Well now I got it at $97/share. I'm happy I waited lol.
How is that working out for ya?
I love Warren videos.... Warren Buffet of course; not Elizabeth Warren.
😂
@Marcellino Sananto ok.... lol, that wasnt the point of my comment; at all.
@Marcellino Sananto Who is Elizabeth Warren, do you mean Pocahontas?
Yang Gang
Pocohantus
If you had bought $50k worth of stock split between these 3 companies - they would be worth well over 1 million $ . The dividends of these holdings would be paying an annual return more than the original price of investment.
I feel that a simple adage goes a long way here: A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. A great company at a fair price is worth more than waiting for it to go down, it may go up
problem is, most companies today are priced at a premium
Well, my good friend is waiting for next big crash for around five years (the same time all big media is shouting crash is comming this “year”) , we are up around 120+% ... so that is the answer ... even if big crash will come tomorrow , by waiting he lost a lot of money ... if you are really not sure , do monthly /quarter/ or year deposits . Easy , next question :-)
It came
Sumit Menon you couldn’t wait to respond to this could you? 😂🤣😂🤣
R F yes, Lucky people (that were waiting 6 years for crash) that virus show Up , else they will wait couple of more years... but anyway ... still walid answer :-)
The big money are made in this times when the market drops shrply/depression/crash..Warren is from the golden days where everything rose for 30+ years non stop. And he even admit it him self. Today things are different. Everything is OverValued. And depression around the corner. Maybe even a crash.
Right Bro
dubstep1994 You don’t know market history very well.
I agree, as a trader myself the markets have became way more efficient. There are a lot more nuances that has to be implied to make any good roi. Buying panics is one of them. I wouldnt recommend investing right now since you are buying in potential tops regarding an overdue bull market. Now i’m not specialized in investing because i’m not interested to make 5-10% a year. I make that in a week sometimes. But i do have a good knowledge about supply and demand, market structure and sentiment. And buying up in frontside panics gives you a much better roi then buying in tops hoping for the market to return in a few years while your cash is stuck. If it is stuck, let it atleast make you money is my analogy.
Well you said it. Coronavirus its going to destroy all the stock market
This is an old video, year 1996. Today in 2019 he is sitting on $130 cash and doesn't take a plunge.
He answered that very question at an annual meeting. It's much harder to place $130B than to place $1B
@@LaurentCardinal exactly, so that answer from 1996 can't be taken at face value.
@@fractal97 do you have 1 billion?
@@noah1739 I don't and your point is?
Having a enormous amount of money, like $130 Billion is a problem on itself.
Normal and conventional investing principles doesn’t always apply at this level. You have so much money that, if you decide to enter the market with so much volume, you’ll make unwanted movements in price because of your volume.
A good analogy would be newtonian physics and einstein physics. Newton and his laws and theories of physics are entirely correct and used broadly around the world for almost any engineering work, but at extreme levels of energy and speed (let’s say the speed of light) the laws and theories Albert Einstein developed are more correct and more properly explain what is going on.
The same applies to investing, $ 130B is much more harder and difficult to move and place than just “some” millions.
With that amount of money, you are not taking a bite, you’re eating the whole food.
It better not be a poisonous one, because you can survive if you take a bite, but you’ll be dead if you eat it whole.
Amazing, what a great advice!
If our eyes on the long term, the future, it’s never too late to start
Whatever it’s starting a company, investing in a company, learning something new…
I think with situations right now...it's hard to say...thing already changes... lots already become *new normal*
Exactly. I was going to say be nice for a 2020 update on this bc I don't think it holds true whatsoever now
To sum it up, don't wait to buy a company you like, but try to have enough money to buy a good deal when you see it.
Warren is saying it's okay to buy as long as it's "buying below intrinsic value" i.e. as long as the price is reasonable. but how exactly do you calculate intrinsic value?
Like a mortician waiting for a flu epidemic, a vivid description for those wishing to time the market. LOL
Great question.
Skip to 1:38 for the beginning of the answer.
The key words here are @5:16 "when the price sounds reasonable". Currently Buffett has 40% in cash. Don't just buy at any time guys. Wait for a reasonable price for great companies.
EG: Buffett waited for Amazon to drop 20% before buying this year.
Why to post it? The question is unheardable.
Take any major event as a bonus. You can't wait to buy when there was a crash. Last one was 12 years ago and the Dow surged since then. You would have missed on those gains if you waited.
Here 2020.. March 25... never would we see times get so bad... the market so bad... crazy times
"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own"
- Baron Rothschild
Corona epidemic is here..now u can buy...now he is sitting on $128Bn cash
‘waiting for that flu epidemic’.. bought today haha! #coronavirus
That gave me nervous laughter
Rob how ya feeling now 🤣
Should have waited lol FOMO kills
You bought too early, it might keep crashing for a long time
Need confirmation first dont try and catch the absolute bottom yall;)
Thanks
*If someone has never invested, they should do their research and just make the plunge. Stocks are high, they can go lower, but they will most likely go higher in the future. It's interesting, I started to invest a year after this event.* 👍
True!
I would agree, but emphasize the "do their research" part of your statement. This is all about personal judgement. If you've looked into a company and think it's a good long term investment then just go for it. The opportunity cost of waiting is higher than what you might save by waiting for it to dip. But make sure you understand why it's a good investment, and don't just take someone else's word for it.
love this video ty
Very good advice. If you really believe in the company, buy. Don’t bet on it to fail.
We are in a flu epidemic and Berkshire refuses to buy any stock at all
😕
- Invest in great companies without waiting for market crashes (0:13)
- Look for businesses that will remain strong over the long term (1:41)
- Avoid attempting to time the market due to the rarity of opportunities (2:44)
- Make investment decisions based on business quality and reasonable pricing (5:00)
- Capitalize on unexpected funds during market lows to invest wisely (5:38)
Dont time on the stock price, time on the authentic value of the company you assess from studying it.
Well, here we are😄
Imagine being that guy and re-watching this during this epidemic 😶😐
04/05/20, I got Goosebumps when he Said that we would need to see a flu epidemic and right now we're going through the Corona virus which shut down the American economy instantly
Is your course for Canadian only?
The key is that the price needs to be reasonable. A wonderful business is not a great investment at any price.
Hi....how was your India trip? How are you. I enjoyed this video too.
Thanks so much. Wish you success in your invesment 👍
Thank you for these clips ! Great channel
Thanks Soi. Glad you enjoyed! :)
Its true, opportunities in life, dont wait for ever, they come and go like buses
You should always have some dry powder available.
RELEVANT IN 2020
Very interesting. Great video.
Anytime you show a video on your video, post the date on it.
If you're going to put the question in the beginning you dont need to show the 1.5 minutes of the question being asked.
Aim to be a genuine genius ❤❤🎉🎉
2:56 is here
In my opinion, if u are going to buy more shares of a business when it falls down sharply...why not buy more of it when the stock crashes because it will not crash forever. It will eventually go up and give u a satisfying profit but only if u buy shares when it was down.
Invest regularly what you are willing to risk losing without affecting your life. But also keep a proper hidden stash that you can deploy during crashes. Because neither of them is a wrong.
The biggest player in the market is always TIME
The potential of blockchain in various industries is fascinating.
"epidemic" - volatility is here boys n girls. and with volatility comes massive opportunities to get in on the strongest performers dirt cheap. as a young investor that missed the Great Recession as I was only just starting in the workforce in 2009, its time to sow those stock seeds for long-term gains.
It's a tough question. Folks like Buffett and Klarman of Baupost will horde cash for years to avoid losses and accept losing out on potentially massive returns. If you're going to hold for decades, then sure, buy now. But in an overheated economy, like in 2019, it's important to consider the high probability of recession, hold cash, and be resilient. An important lesson from Intelligent investor makes clear that to make up for a loss, you need an investment to produce 200% gain to break even. So, a balanced approach means keeping investments you believe in but being weary of irrational exuberance and having a healthy amount of caution in your investment selections, especially if you're looking at stocks
Jon Jonsson hold cash meaning save as much cash as you can?
Fantastic!
Hi Brandon, this is out of topic question - who is a better investor in your opinion - Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch?
In my opinion and what I think about stock market is if we invest money in stocks we never looses money because we see the looses is temporary and one more thing I never invest money but you guys are tell me about my opinion is right or wrong?
No. Single companies can permanently lose value, or crash and burn completely. Just look at what happened to IBM or Deutsche Bank over the last decade for instance; The former is not even close to as relevant as they were in the 00s, or indeed most decades before that, whereas Deutsche Bank has completely imploded with their stock being worth just over 5% over what it was at its peak. That’s not a typo, if you bought Deutsche Bank at peak valuation you’d have lost nearly all of your money if held it until now.
It’s why average people are recommended to invest in index funds instead; For relatively small fees you’re exposed to a much more significant portion of the market, which historically has kept climbing far outpacing the crashes and depressions occurring over the last century. This is still not risk free even if it holds up indefinitely (which is of course not a guarantee either, but nothing in life is a ever guaranteed), because if it’s down it’s down and if you need to cash out for any reason you stand to lose money from that, which is why the general advice is when you’re investing do so with money you’re not going to need at a moments notice. Ideally, be prepared to hold on to investments of this sort for years to decades and plan cashing out years in advance waiting for an opportune moment.
There are also people doing day trading and trying to make money that way, but that’s much harder to do with any sort of consistency and there’s plenty of evidence that most people trying this ending up with no better and often significantly worse returns than those that simply buy a bunch of stuff and hold on to it.
2:50 Well that one certainly did not age well
this is for a general rule. if the markets average p/e is high, we are in the longest bull market ever and prices are at all time highs, and the yield curve inverted in the past year, it may be best to wait a little. or at least take out your investments in at the end of the year. 1/30/2020
In India if the BSE Sensex P/E is near 25 then you should not put bulk in Sensex or Nifty funds. Near 18 P/E means market is steady and below 18 P/E means it's going down.
Admire Mr. Buffett a great deal, but this is not the approach he took with his partnership (prior to Berkshire) and it is also not the approach espoused by Ben Graham in Security Analysis or The Intelligent Investor. The future return of any investment will also be dependant upon the price paid, regardless of how great or lousy the business might be.
I feel like he's being consistent but not phrasing it well. He supports buying stocks at what seems to be "fair" values for good businesses because their growth potential will likely end up being higher in the long-run of 30+ years. But also he is limited in that as berkshire hathaway has grown, its become harder to deploy capital at larger size amounts. But when he was starting out in his career, he had smaller money to manage, which meant that he could get in and out of positions more quickly.
2:55 Atm we are in the midst of the Covid-19 Outbreak... So i find this analogy amusing seeing as this was only just recently uploaded last November... Lol (I know the original vid was made in 1996) :)
at 6:03 "we've had our share of flu epidemics but you don't want to spend your life waiting around for them"
How long has he been old? Forever?
Yes
Just depends how the business is valued right now, if it's valued fair or low buy and if not just wait for the moment to strike
You should value a business at right price that's it
Now is the time to buy into the big boys
Where can I get the whole video?
Imagine if you bought stock in any S&P comment back then, it’s be worth plenty more by now
Not Kodak, GE, Worldcom, and many others.
Buy All the Times no Matter what you could be the Influence in Helping a Company out. Imagine the last $10K for a Company to Succede.
The "goodness" of the business is what matters when you buy, along with reasonable financial indicators.
A market crash is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things :)
I've had a savings plan for years now. I quite like the thought of the price of the plan going down because I can buy more in the months when prices decline. When the stock market recovers (which it has always done quite spectacularly) I've made a gain. A win-win scenario.
Wrong. A market drawback/crash is where the big money is made. But if your 10 years from it - it may not be worth the wait. That is what Warren ment.
@@socrates_the_great6209 Warren has been on record saying that the best time to buy stocks is during a 'stock market crash' summed up by his quote 'Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy'. My point I was trying to make was a 'stock market crash' shouldn't be seen negatively. If you buy something from a shop you want the price to be as low as possible.
Talk about Flu Epidemics....Buffett is a visionary
Good businesses in and of itself is not enough. If you buy a business regardless of price because you think the business is going to do well, that's the wrong approach. A good business, with the price low relative to earnings/owner's earnings is the formula.
Hello I am from India. And all stocks are falling due to COVID-19, is this good time to invest?
What should I take in consideration while buying stocks right now?
Have you bought the stocks in covid epidemic? And if yes what is your portfolio right now.
Buying at the peak of the market is always a good idea.....good luck!
This is timely with what's going on.
Hand washing.
Social distancing.
24 hour shelter in place.
I find the prices to be offensive in October 2021
What's that book he's talking about ? And who's Phil Corey??
Philip L. Carret
Hi, pals. So I'm that one guy that decided to wait and here I am, with the flu epidemic and my mortician dad, he's getting rich and I bought the big ones for a relatively cheap price. Patience is a virtue.
i plan on investing via etrade this week. It seems to good to be true. shares in most industries are so low right now. Should i just invest 90% of my money and wait for the market to get back to normal?
If the overall market is too high or if a stock is too expensive - just wait for a correction. Use any spare money to put into your home loan offset account, pay off debts or 401K. Wait for that "fat pitch". Most people don't have a lot of money to invest like Buffett.
Timing is really too hard, especially if it's a good enterprise, there is a real risk that waiting a krach or crisis, the stock only get higher.
thats why you always stay in to some degree, even when you think things are overpriced... look at 1990 - 2000 for example, people probably thought things were expensive from 96-98. If you got out then you missed 100-200% returns... if you're seriously fearful of a crash just keep 20-30% of your portfolio in cash but don't sell out in total.
@@micalda1 yeah that's a good idea too, if you are afraid it's too high, just buy some and keep some cash in case it drops to get a better entry.
That guy that talked about the 3 companies he was interested in, if he invested heavy at that time. This guy got a lot of money today haha
I just recently started investing for the long term. Stocks are always going to go up so might as well hop in now and average down when the stock is low.
If you have a long-term outlook that is definitely a way to go about it! ✌
There is no rule they will always go up. I don’t know who told you that.
Progressive Investing regular stock growth
You say that now...you just started.. ^^
cindy song got me there!
Funny actually, watching this in February 2020 and the whole Corona Virus shit is about to hit the fan at the markets! Might as well buy wonderful businesses
this aged quite well
What he said is true, but his personal savings before 2008 were all bonds (why?) and then he claimed to change them to all stocks in that famous “Buy America. I am.” article. Timing matters, especially when others are greedy