I am really liking how the chart on the bottom left breaks a trade-up into an unboxing format. Cool way to look at it. I love watching these! You should get into Strange Contract skin trade-ups :)
I'll get into the Strange Contract skin trade-ups eventually, don't worry :) I'd love to make a video doing every trade-up starting from nothing all the way up to the top
I recently made a tradeup for the Burly Beast with about a ~8.3% chance of hitting the Burly Beast for about 5 keys each attempt. I hit it myself and thought maybe you'd like to try it in a future video? Anyways it is 8 purples from tough break collection and 2 purples from creepy crawly case.
I'm tracking every trade-up, so if it's profitable, I'll find it! You'll have to be more specific though, there's four Tough Break collections. Do you mean Harvest, Gentlemanne, Pyroland, or Warbird?
@@tragnet Ah no problem, thanks for clearing it up! I should have caught that, whoops. Doing a trade-up of entirely of Tough Break Commando cosmetic means you're losing ~0.5 keys on average, so I don't recommend that one. Creepy is quite profitable though, with it giving at least a key with each trade-up if you do entirely that collection. That one is tricky to find enough supply at a reasonable price though. I'll get that Burly Beast one day. :)
@@_TheLetterZed i did not mean only tough break, i meant 8 inputs from tough break and 2 from creepy crawly Gives you 25% chance for a pink from creepy crawly which Is break even or profit and 75% to lose unfortunately but I found it to be very profitable when doing enough
@@tragnet I'd rather pick a profitable collection for the 75%, like Winter 2017 or Summer 2019. Gotta take the best chances when you're doing trade-ups!
80% of Crate #92's value is because of the Kritzkrieg, and 10% of the value is the Unusual. If you miss both, you have a crate that's hugely -EV. However, on average, you're making money on the crate. Just... make sure you've seen my video on it before you decide to jump in.
They're not bad if you're only doing one collection/wear, but they get really messy once you get mixed wears. My table certainly isn't built for it, hah!
In 14 years of watching unboxing videos, this has to be my favourite account for them. Cheers
it is crazy how you manage to get the best ones most of the time. great video again!
This one was absurdly lucky with the Frozen Auroras!
I am really liking how the chart on the bottom left breaks a trade-up into an unboxing format. Cool way to look at it. I love watching these!
You should get into Strange Contract skin trade-ups :)
I'll get into the Strange Contract skin trade-ups eventually, don't worry :) I'd love to make a video doing every trade-up starting from nothing all the way up to the top
war paints! :OO no way
My friend is one of the only people in the game to own a Strange Bovine Blazemaker War Paint
Congrats on 800 subs zed!
The graphs on your videos are so sick. Also do you recommend #103?
#103 isn't terrible, but it's not yet +EV. It's a risky one and suboptimal, but I would feel fine opening it.
My guy is so underrated to only have 800 subs 😭
This is a very cool video, Zed :)
May just be your luck turning up, but it looked less risky than crates, high potential
Everything except the last trade-up looked nice! 😅
I recently made a tradeup for the Burly Beast with about a ~8.3% chance of hitting the Burly Beast for about 5 keys each attempt. I hit it myself and thought maybe you'd like to try it in a future video? Anyways it is 8 purples from tough break collection and 2 purples from creepy crawly case.
I'm tracking every trade-up, so if it's profitable, I'll find it! You'll have to be more specific though, there's four Tough Break collections. Do you mean Harvest, Gentlemanne, Pyroland, or Warbird?
@@_TheLetterZed cosmetic case since there's only one pink above, it's a trade up filler to keep cost down
Sorry about the unclear message :p
@@tragnet Ah no problem, thanks for clearing it up! I should have caught that, whoops.
Doing a trade-up of entirely of Tough Break Commando cosmetic means you're losing ~0.5 keys on average, so I don't recommend that one.
Creepy is quite profitable though, with it giving at least a key with each trade-up if you do entirely that collection. That one is tricky to find enough supply at a reasonable price though.
I'll get that Burly Beast one day. :)
@@_TheLetterZed i did not mean only tough break, i meant 8 inputs from tough break and 2 from creepy crawly
Gives you 25% chance for a pink from creepy crawly which Is break even or profit and 75% to lose unfortunately but I found it to be very profitable when doing enough
@@tragnet I'd rather pick a profitable collection for the 75%, like Winter 2017 or Summer 2019. Gotta take the best chances when you're doing trade-ups!
good
Hey zed what simulation thingy do you use for all the stats / is it editing or what?
It's a custom Google Sheet I made! I just use the built in graphs and then send that to OBS. It's all done live while I open.
@@_TheLetterZed nice!
zed! question, is it worth to open crate #92 just because it has the kritzkrieg in it?
80% of Crate #92's value is because of the Kritzkrieg, and 10% of the value is the Unusual. If you miss both, you have a crate that's hugely -EV. However, on average, you're making money on the crate. Just... make sure you've seen my video on it before you decide to jump in.
@@_TheLetterZed sure i am! currently watching it
@@_TheLetterZed ok it sucks, get it LOL
Theoretically, if completed a buncha times, it would be profitable. The chance of being profitable at lower amounts though is not fun.
I feel like warpaints are way too complicated to even try trade ups
They're not bad if you're only doing one collection/wear, but they get really messy once you get mixed wears. My table certainly isn't built for it, hah!