I appreciate your direct links to the actual Treasury documents and WSJ charts. Very clear, and thanks for explaining what they are and what they mean.
I appreciate your straight forward analysis with the published comments and fed charts. I really appreciated your past educational videos - for example explaining a Treasury direct results document. Thanks
I just bought a one month treasury bill and plan to renew it for the foreseeable future, adding money as I have it at each renewal. Nothing longer is giving enough yield to entice me to lock my money up.
Thank you so much for all the info. The graphs, reports, etc . You really help me a beginner investor sort through all this, easy to follow and understand it all comes together and makes sense in your videos, keep them coming much appreciated 🙏
I appreciate your insight; you're actually quite helpful and very good at explaining government debt. Keep up the good work and more people will tune in. Very good today and Thank you!
Well, I think of the 4 investment YT channels I watch you are the first to actually say what we all know. The government has no intention of solving the debt problems. Do you think inverted interest rates are here to stay???
I think the inverted yield curve is going to resolve with longer term yields eventually going up from what they are now due to the rapidly expanding US Government debt. The pace at which we doubled the debt to its current level is astounding!
Can you explain why the US cannot just add to the money supply to pay off the debt. And how much money is in the money supply and how was that amount determined.
according to the St Louis Fed the current M2 money supply is approximately $21 Trillion. The US debt is approximately $34 Trillion. If the US were to print $34 trillion to pay its debt, we would see hyperinflation and the dollar would likely lose its status as the global reserve currency which would create a number of problems in regards to items that are currently priced in dollars around the world. In essence we would become Argentina (:
First let me say that I enjoy your videos. One thing you said is making me respond to this video, and that is : you stated that you won't not be willing to let the government have your money by purchasing long dated treasury bonds. I think you missed the point of purchasing a long dated treasury bonds. If you purchased a 20 or 30 bond and yields drop that your bond will increase in value. That bond could be sold on the secondary market potentially giving you a nice return. Now granted you or your viewers cannot sell on the secondary market in Treasury Direct but can if the bonds are purchased through a discount brokerage.
but in regards to why I would not want to give them my money for 20 years, I think yields will be going way up due to the runaway US debt. I would want a much better yield than 4.2%. thanks for the comment!
@@FatherNSonInvesting Can you at some point discuss how and when to sell Treasuries that we might hold when we see the rates starting to rise? Thx. I'd hate to have a 20yrT at 4% and rates go up to 6%.
Thanks for the question. Sometimes I try to keep things brief for the sake of video longevity. Thanks for giving me a chance to explain my rationale. In my mind I compare what return I can get for similar risk. T-Bills are a cash alternative to me so I am comparing it to other cash options. In this case my Vanguard money market fund is paying 5.41%. I don't think that rate is going to change soon (expecting the Fed to hold rates steady). Also comparing it to the overnight repo facility rate. The 6 month T-Bill is less than the repo facility rate. Thanks for the quesion!
As long as the Fed rate stays at the current rate I think it will sit right around 5.3-5.4%. I don't see the Fed decreasing their rate in May or June. I doubt it will happen in July as well. So I think at least 16 weeks.
The CPI calculation is adjusted annually and may lead to changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI for the past 5 years. I am not privy to the adjustments ahead of time so it would be difficult to say how this will affect the previously reported CPI numbers. However, if the adjustments indicate that inflation is higher than previously thought, that should influence the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Last years adjustments caused in increase in the Nov 22 and Dec 22 inflation rates.
The US basically can't default. It can print money. The biggest risk of the US debt is high inflation from all the money printing it takes to cover payments on the debt.
@@murraypassarieu9115 That's why, as long as debts are elevated, inflation will remain higher than what is officially calculated. Any recession, and stock crush will be short lived because the fed will come to the rescue.
It will be hard to time the US debt rebellion if you go by the Greece model. Debt doesn't matter for a few decades till all of a sudden it matters and blows up for the savvy bond traders.
Agreed. There has to be government jobs. It's a question of how many. Adding 23K per month in 2022 vs 56K per month in 2023. That is a lot of new government jobs and a lot of new borrowing to pay the salaries! Thanks for the comment and for watching. Very much appreciated.
I appreciate your direct links to the actual Treasury documents and WSJ charts. Very clear, and thanks for explaining what they are and what they mean.
Glad they are helpful!
I appreciate your straight forward analysis with the published comments and fed charts. I really appreciated your past educational videos - for example explaining a Treasury direct results document. Thanks
Your analysis is as good as the other experts and I do feel you are sincere and well meaning. Thank you.
I appreciate that!
I just bought a one month treasury bill and plan to renew it for the foreseeable future, adding money as I have it at each renewal. Nothing longer is giving enough yield to entice me to lock my money up.
likewise, looks like rates will stay elevated for the medium term
Thanks, new subscriber here. Appreciated the balanced analysis without hype or hyperbole.
Thanks for joining us!
Thank you so much for all the info. The graphs, reports, etc . You really help me a beginner investor sort through all this, easy to follow and understand it all comes together and makes sense in your videos, keep them coming much appreciated 🙏
Great to hear!
I appreciate your insight; you're actually quite helpful and very good at explaining government debt. Keep up the good work and more people will tune in. Very good today and Thank you!
Thanks, will do!
I look forward to your reports. Very information packed.
Glad you like them!
Great job as usual.
Thanks for watching!
"A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon we'll be talking about real money". :(
Well, I think of the 4 investment YT channels I watch you are the first to actually say what we all know. The government has no intention of solving the debt problems. Do you think inverted interest rates are here to stay???
I think the inverted yield curve is going to resolve with longer term yields eventually going up from what they are now due to the rapidly expanding US Government debt. The pace at which we doubled the debt to its current level is astounding!
After yesterday’s CPI numbers , do you think rates are going up? I’ve been diverting to 4 weeks from 13 weeks over the last month
Just uploaded a new video regarding yesterday’s CPI! Feel free to check it out
Can you explain why the US cannot just add to the money supply to pay off the debt. And how much money is in the money supply and how was that amount determined.
according to the St Louis Fed the current M2 money supply is approximately $21 Trillion. The US debt is approximately $34 Trillion. If the US were to print $34 trillion to pay its debt, we would see hyperinflation and the dollar would likely lose its status as the global reserve currency which would create a number of problems in regards to items that are currently priced in dollars around the world. In essence we would become Argentina (:
You think long dated Treasury bond yields are going up for February?
I think they will go up and down with each little bit of news that conflicts with the previous little bit of news :)
@@FatherNSonInvesting okay thanks 👍
Very well done and thank you!
Thank you!
First let me say that I enjoy your videos. One thing you said is making me respond to this video, and that is : you stated that you won't not be willing to let the government have your money by purchasing long dated treasury bonds. I think you missed the point of purchasing a long dated treasury bonds. If you purchased a 20 or 30 bond and yields drop that your bond will increase in value. That bond could be sold on the secondary market potentially giving you a nice return. Now granted you or your viewers cannot sell on the secondary market in Treasury Direct but can if the bonds are purchased through a discount brokerage.
Great point! We actually have a video dropping tomorrow talking about this a bit, along with how to calculate bond value!
but in regards to why I would not want to give them my money for 20 years, I think yields will be going way up due to the runaway US debt. I would want a much better yield than 4.2%. thanks for the comment!
@@FatherNSonInvesting Can you at some point discuss how and when to sell Treasuries that we might hold when we see the rates starting to rise? Thx. I'd hate to have a 20yrT at 4% and rates go up to 6%.
Please clarify why do you prefer 4 months tbills(17 Wks) over 26 weeks? They are so close.
Thanks for the question. Sometimes I try to keep things brief for the sake of video longevity. Thanks for giving me a chance to explain my rationale. In my mind I compare what return I can get for similar risk. T-Bills are a cash alternative to me so I am comparing it to other cash options. In this case my Vanguard money market fund is paying 5.41%. I don't think that rate is going to change soon (expecting the Fed to hold rates steady). Also comparing it to the overnight repo facility rate. The 6 month T-Bill is less than the repo facility rate. Thanks for the quesion!
@@FatherNSonInvestingwhich Vanguard mmf is giving you that yield? With a yield like that why even buy Treasuries or CDs? To lock in a rate? Thanks!
how long you think one month t bills will yield 5.3%??
As long as the Fed rate stays at the current rate I think it will sit right around 5.3-5.4%. I don't see the Fed decreasing their rate in May or June. I doubt it will happen in July as well. So I think at least 16 weeks.
T-Bills for now, at least until I have more confidence in US and Global equities.
Please, what's a base line for adjusted CPI? for Friday 2/9/24 , NOT HOT OR COLD..
The CPI calculation is adjusted annually and may lead to changes in the seasonally adjusted CPI for the past 5 years. I am not privy to the adjustments ahead of time so it would be difficult to say how this will affect the previously reported CPI numbers. However, if the adjustments indicate that inflation is higher than previously thought, that should influence the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. Last years adjustments caused in increase in the Nov 22 and Dec 22 inflation rates.
serious question: if the US defaults, do investors lose the principle or just the interest payments?
If the US defaults, you will have much more to worry about than principle or interest.
@@eddenoy321 thanks for the straight answer
@@eddenoy321 thanks for the straight answer
The US basically can't default. It can print money. The biggest risk of the US debt is high inflation from all the money printing it takes to cover payments on the debt.
@@murraypassarieu9115 That's why, as long as debts are elevated, inflation will remain higher than what is officially calculated. Any recession, and stock crush will be short lived because the fed will come to the rescue.
All you need to know is keep buying 2- 3 year notes, ladder them. That's it!
It will be hard to time the US debt rebellion if you go by the Greece model. Debt doesn't matter for a few decades till all of a sudden it matters and blows up for the savvy bond traders.
Government added an average of 56,000 jobs
per month in 2023, more than double the average monthly gain of 23,000 in 2022.
Thanks. Very helpful....u proved that there are 760 billion reasons to end the Fed. 😂
Dude, without government-jobs, we'd have no military or government; HELLO!
Agreed. There has to be government jobs. It's a question of how many. Adding 23K per month in 2022 vs 56K per month in 2023. That is a lot of new government jobs and a lot of new borrowing to pay the salaries! Thanks for the comment and for watching. Very much appreciated.