Like this guy's investment concept. Will wait for few quarters until the inflation can see a light at the end of the tunnel and the Fed blinks before pilling into growth stocks. In this market, it pays to be late, and not early. In the meantime, put cash in short term treasury or CDs.
I would like to read his new book. Very admirable qualifications. Although his views are apparently a bit controversial with the viewers, he knows what he is talking about. Let's face it, the market is so rough right now, and no expert is going to have a magic wand.
I'm on this dude's side. I've bought a lot of Canadian stuff that is trading at the covid lows. Of course they could go lower, but lots of stuff is really cheap even though the indicies are still overpriced.
All of them will fall 30% from here in the great flush when ETFs start selling . I know a lot of people who are breakevem at S&P 3000 where this will break . Once it breaks and we get the flush 2400 is my point to get into these
Haha. Flush 600 pts from 3000 ridiculous …Your numbers it will not happen29- 3000 ok so keep sitting on your hands 😅. I have been through this 3 x Your number is dooms day good luck at your dart throwing approach with 50 % from highs like the housing crisis. Sounds like you are fear mongering for your own gain
Mkt is up by 10% since this brocasted. Meaning still 20% down from here. Waiting SP to hit 3300. NASDAC to 8000. I did bought 3 month at mkt low and sold at 4000.
Jez - still listening to him and he comes up with more bad advice... 10 year treasuries are NEVER GOING BACK TO 2%. 2% was because of MASSIVE QE where FED went from 0% of USA mortgages to owning 25% of all the USA mortgages. This buying caused real rates on bonds to go negative - a situation which lasted a while but not sustainable. Expect 10 year to be 4+% even if inflation is 2% as in all its history except this QE time real returns were positive 2%.
I first bought it around that time in my taxable account. I sold it around 7 years ago, and shortly after purchased it in my Roth IRA. A few years ago I added more from another Roth IRA account. It is staying there.
U.S. stocks are NOT cheap. Actually, it is well over valued because margins are just to high for the condition and trends of market forces. When margins compress next year then market valuations will come into line with the rest of the world.
He is right on Amazon though - VERY WRONG ON APPLE! MARK MY WORDS - APPLE ABOUT TO FALL A LOT. My best guess on Apple is 40% realistic downside and I am thus short it.
@@oneshot2g I am an apple user - and dont see myself ever using anything other than Apple. HOWEVER - In the past year EVERYONE bought a new phone and quite a few bought laptops too duo to work from home and homes schooling. Basically there was a super normal surge in demand for a consumer good that lasts many years. The short idea isnt unique to apple - Mattress companies had the same boost. The difference is Apple isnt pricing in the normalization back down whereas every other company has somewhat (look at lenovo). This is likely because people think their 'services' division will grow a lot but that is majority games and people are not buying games like they did in covid - look at netflix demand. Apple's earnings doubled in the past 2 years from only 5% pa growth before that. LETS SEE - THEY REPORT SOON. Strong USD v bad for them too - plus china demand has been bad for smartphones in general.
@@cjdch6604 That's a compelling argument. What about Google? I'm more keen to short them to be honest as they don't let me post comments here and I waste a lot of time over it.
It’s funny that he talks about market expectations for inflation coming down when he doesn’t mention that the market completely missed that inflation was going to go up in the first place. Why trust the investors that got it so wrong very recently?!?
He runs a multi asset portfolio. Both stocks and bonds. He has outperformed the average index 60/40 by miles and beaten the SP500 with far less risk. That is incredibly difficult to do.
He’s a hot nerd, wonder if he’s single. As per stocks, a lot of stuff is down hard already and there is a “risk” of them not bottoming further and missing rallies or even just small bear market rallies
*BEWARE* THIS GUY IS BAD AND VERY MISLEADING. WFC nasdaq troughed at 9.5X pre- GFC EPS (eps fell a lot so use pre-figure), and 2020 COVID low PE was 12X pre covid forward EPS. So HE IS VERY WRONG ON DOWNSIDE saying its only 10% to reach those levels. Right now Nasdaq is 21X forward EPS so downside (not saying its going to happen btw) is possibly over 50%.
@@jdcole82 I have been doing this for over 20 years professionally and have a CFA. I invest my own money now - Take my advise or dont - i dont mind. Just trying to warn people. You will know if i am worth listening to sooner or later. not that you will be able to find me anyway.
@@jdcole82 Also facts are facts. what i wrote above about market downside using 2008 WFC low and 2020 Covid low are indisputable facts. What i wrote about apple is not a fact - just opinion.
@@jdcole82 Short answer is yes. Long answer is that i didnt predict the decline or depth of decline. Just was in cash for presonal reasons in 2008 and did manage to buy the bottom in 2009. Most declines you cant predict - this year was somewhat predictable though given peak EPS and peak PE in 2021. Depth of this decline is hard to tell - but we are not even at 4Q 2018 levels yet alone extremes like 2008 and 2020.
To make a long story short, buy everything... This guy has no clue, sorry, except you want to burn your money fast. Of course in 10 years most of the stocks look much more better.
Great stream, as always. I appreciate the level-headed approach you take to the news and the markets. . A lot has changed and that's on everything but the truth is I don't even care much about bullish or bearish market anymore because FLOYd JOHNSON y got me cover as I am comfortably making $150,000 monthly....
![Financial Markets Are Dangerous for Investors: What You Need to Know [2022]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/-Vjez85LlNE/mqdefault.jpg)
Thanks to Consuelo and David!
Like this guy's investment concept. Will wait for few quarters until the inflation can see a light at the end of the tunnel and the Fed blinks before pilling into growth stocks. In this market, it pays to be late, and not early. In the meantime, put cash in short term treasury or CDs.
I would like to read his new book. Very admirable qualifications. Although his views are apparently a bit controversial with the viewers, he knows what he is talking about. Let's face it, the market is so rough right now, and no expert is going to have a magic wand.
Excellent video, matter of fact questions, straightforward answers. Thanks.
I'm on this dude's side. I've bought a lot of Canadian stuff that is trading at the covid lows. Of course they could go lower, but lots of stuff is really cheap even though the indicies are still overpriced.
All boats go down when tide is out. So be patient. Top companies can go to pe of 10 or lower
yes, just wait a bit until after the November effect is going away
Interesting and pleasant discussion.
Geroux is brilliant. Trowe cap best moderate risk fund ever
'BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH !' is the first rules of investing !
However, people do the exact opposite, by not following this rule.
All of them will fall 30% from here in the great flush when ETFs start selling . I know a lot of people who are breakevem at S&P 3000 where this will break . Once it breaks and we get the flush 2400 is my point to get into these
Haha. Flush 600 pts from 3000 ridiculous …Your numbers it will not happen29- 3000 ok so keep sitting on your hands 😅. I have been through this 3 x
Your number is dooms day good luck at your dart throwing approach with 50 % from highs like the housing crisis. Sounds like you are fear mongering for your own gain
I’m a bear and started buying because it’s going to take alot to get the market all the way down to 3000
Mkt is up by 10% since this brocasted. Meaning still 20% down from here. Waiting SP to hit 3300. NASDAC to 8000.
I did bought 3 month at mkt low and sold at 4000.
really exceptional. thanks to both.
Makes me happy I’m deep into CA as my core holding…
Jez - still listening to him and he comes up with more bad advice... 10 year treasuries are NEVER GOING BACK TO 2%. 2% was because of MASSIVE QE where FED went from 0% of USA mortgages to owning 25% of all the USA mortgages. This buying caused real rates on bonds to go negative - a situation which lasted a while but not sustainable. Expect 10 year to be 4+% even if inflation is 2% as in all its history except this QE time real returns were positive 2%.
Other countries are reducing rates. If the dollar continues to strengthen against the other countries, the Fed will be forced to cut.
Great interview
I've owned PRWCX since 2005
I first bought it around that time in my taxable account. I sold it around 7 years ago, and shortly after purchased it in my Roth IRA. A few years ago I added more from another Roth IRA account. It is staying there.
NOT YET - WAIT.
Great great segment !!!
Outstanding video.
' Long term' is a dangerous word. Why would you want to make many later by going way down first.?😂
Excellent interview, thank you!
Excellent
Apple is back to about July lows...will go lower for better value.
U.S. stocks are NOT cheap. Actually, it is well over valued because margins are just to high for the condition and trends of market forces. When margins compress next year then market valuations will come into line with the rest of the world.
LOL, how you feelin bud?
I think he's thinking of the years previous. I would not follow his advice and I as well trade on my own
He is right on Amazon though - VERY WRONG ON APPLE! MARK MY WORDS - APPLE ABOUT TO FALL A LOT. My best guess on Apple is 40% realistic downside and I am thus short it.
I disagree. Apple consumers are extremely sticky.
@@oneshot2g I am an apple user - and dont see myself ever using anything other than Apple. HOWEVER - In the past year EVERYONE bought a new phone and quite a few bought laptops too duo to work from home and homes schooling. Basically there was a super normal surge in demand for a consumer good that lasts many years. The short idea isnt unique to apple - Mattress companies had the same boost. The difference is Apple isnt pricing in the normalization back down whereas every other company has somewhat (look at lenovo). This is likely because people think their 'services' division will grow a lot but that is majority games and people are not buying games like they did in covid - look at netflix demand. Apple's earnings doubled in the past 2 years from only 5% pa growth before that. LETS SEE - THEY REPORT SOON. Strong USD v bad for them too - plus china demand has been bad for smartphones in general.
@@cjdch6604 That's a compelling argument. What about Google? I'm more keen to short them to be honest as they don't let me post comments here and I waste a lot of time over it.
This is EXACTLY what people said before the great depression....
Elaborate more about the depression sir . I'm hearing a big slowdown in the economy
@@bobbywomack8262 Do your own research. Put the work in, get rewarded.
It’s funny that he talks about market expectations for inflation coming down when he doesn’t mention that the market completely missed that inflation was going to go up in the first place. Why trust the investors that got it so wrong very recently?!?
His fund CAGR is 9.28% vs. SP's 9.26%, only 0.02% higher. You call that a top investor? Come on. I hope the 9.28% is the after-fee return.
The point is he finds stocks that don’t drop with the sp500.
He runs a multi asset portfolio. Both stocks and bonds. He has outperformed the average index 60/40 by miles and beaten the SP500 with far less risk. That is incredibly difficult to do.
It's the low risk of this fund while matching sp500 performance that's attractive
He’s a hot nerd, wonder if he’s single. As per stocks, a lot of stuff is down hard already and there is a “risk” of them not bottoming further and missing rallies or even just small bear market rallies
Rates are going higher then 4 brother
Cheap? Lol
*BEWARE* THIS GUY IS BAD AND VERY MISLEADING. WFC nasdaq troughed at 9.5X pre- GFC EPS (eps fell a lot so use pre-figure), and 2020 COVID low PE was 12X pre covid forward EPS. So HE IS VERY WRONG ON DOWNSIDE saying its only 10% to reach those levels. Right now Nasdaq is 21X forward EPS so downside (not saying its going to happen btw) is possibly over 50%.
and how do your track record and credentials stack up against his?
@@jdcole82 I have been doing this for over 20 years professionally and have a CFA. I invest my own money now - Take my advise or dont - i dont mind. Just trying to warn people. You will know if i am worth listening to sooner or later. not that you will be able to find me anyway.
@@jdcole82 Also facts are facts. what i wrote above about market downside using 2008 WFC low and 2020 Covid low are indisputable facts. What i wrote about apple is not a fact - just opinion.
@@cjdch6604 did you profit during the WFC?
@@jdcole82 Short answer is yes. Long answer is that i didnt predict the decline or depth of decline. Just was in cash for presonal reasons in 2008 and did manage to buy the bottom in 2009. Most declines you cant predict - this year was somewhat predictable though given peak EPS and peak PE in 2021. Depth of this decline is hard to tell - but we are not even at 4Q 2018 levels yet alone extremes like 2008 and 2020.
LETS GO!.
To make a long story short, buy everything... This guy has no clue, sorry, except you want to burn your money fast. Of course in 10 years most of the stocks look much more better.
Great stream, as always. I appreciate the level-headed approach you take to the news and the markets. . A lot has changed and that's on everything but the truth is I don't even care much about bullish or bearish market anymore because FLOYd JOHNSON y got me cover as I am comfortably making $150,000 monthly....
How much bad advice can someone give in 15 minutes!