My opinion, when I have seen the videos of the horses with a chance of winning in the Kentucky Derby, I see that Sierra Leone has a beastly run, so much so that when it turns in the final stretch and changes hands, it charges violently inwards but it is because of the desire to run more and more, until the jockey realizes when he has the victory and leaves him alone. This horse is brutal. Another detail in Sierra Leone is their long strides, greater stretching and their individual finishes in the last 400 meters, which they put in 24 seconds and a fraction or less, barbaric.
Nice job! My bold prediction is that Cox will win both the Derby and Oaks! I like Catching Freedom even more now, after seeing some of his late pace figures.
The trainer of fierceness know what is required to.win ,the jockey is great in the derby ,so you may sayers will be whited after he cross the line ,There's no other speed unless fix use just a touch but remember fierceness won stalking I. The.breeders cup juvi
Read up on the final 3/8ths. Sierra Leone does NOT make the cut at under :38. He was .02 off. That’s ok. Dating back to Big Brown who also didn’t finish under 38, 7 of the Derby winners did not go under 38. That’s almost half since 2008. I had a Derby list with Dornach at 3rd but decided to toss him. Perhaps his Remsen was a fluke. Then his FOY win beating a bunch of no-names showed he hasn’t improved. He doesn’t make the under 38 mark. *My* *Derby* *Dozen* 1. Sierra Leone 2. Fierceness 3. Catching Freedom 4. Honor Marie 5. Resilience 6. Just Steel 7. Endlessly Toss Forever Young Stronghold Just A Touch Epic Ride Dornoch Encino Domestic Product Track Phantom Mystic Dan It’s true about Fierceness. He’s sink or swim. He either wins easily or he doesn’t hit the board. Add the Pletcher factor who isn’t the most efficient in big races like this. Endlessly is this weird wildcard to me. I see Kitten’s Joy on top with Langfuhr on the bottom. Is he a turf sprinter? But then he had an excellent closing finish and the Jeff Ruby has shown to be a useful prep recently with Rich Strike and Two Phil’s coming from it. I see Sierra Leone like an Epicenter/Zandon. If he doesn’t win, he’ll still hit the board. Catching Freedom made an earlier move in the Risen Star and SL still caught him. CF, Honor Marie, and Resilience finished behind Track Phantom. Sierra Leone is a BIG HORSE and he has a very long stride. Catching Freedom is a small horse and you can see how quickly Sierra Leone quickly caught him in the Risen Star. He has a little of Zenyatta/Easy Goer. Big, strong horse and he’s moving like a locomotive. Sierra Leone still has his own question marks. He’s never had a 100+ Beyer. The last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby dates back to 1991 with Strike the Gold. We’ve had recent BG winners like Good Magic, Essential Quality, Zandon, and Tapit Trice who all lost in the Derby.
forever youngs a freak . He ran the fastest final 400m ever in the UAE and thts after going 4 and5 wide and did it on the wrong lead, he won the Saudi race on the wrong lead too. He reminds me of a 1920s throw back all heart and runs his ass off every race. His dosage index is perfect his pedigree is insane just a perfect derby horse... I got him , Honor Marie and Sierra Leone topping on my list..
At the risk of being boring... pace makes race..hard to predict which confirmed front runners will break well and get to the front.. the pace of the derby is almost always faster than we think..these horses are super amped up...tend to agree on fierceness...no way in hell hes gonna waltz to the front unopposed in 24 like he did in Florida..i probably just put him in the winners circle but hes gonna be overbet and i still have my doubts....
my 2cents 1- fierceness wins or runs way back not even in the superf. 2- for a euro or japan to win they would have to have a real prep race in the u.s 3 sierra hits the 1st-2nd spot if the post is good & 4- hope all the dornoch -track ph. bandwagon bet them heavy but i think most are jumping off i never was on. i like a bubble horse in the oaks so have to wait.
I agree with Fierceness. He either gets the setup he wants and wins it or get shuffle in the pack and never a threat. He needs a good break and leading pack in the first turn. I always look at horses that won 100 point races and he the best in that category.
Birdstone was considerably smaller than Smarty Jones, but who won the Belmont? Like the one for 17 angle. Not sold on the smaller-horse-can't-win-the-Derby theory.
I'll take Sierra Leon and Honor Marie on top of them 2, Just Steel, Endlessly, Forever Young and Fierceness. Likely to Tri key that and put some money on Sierra Leon to win as well.
Fierceness is too slow to stay in striking position. Forever Young's grandsire is Sunday Silence (best Japanese sire.) No idea what the Oaks holds. I will bet Seize the Grey if he draws in.
Just a Touch, Sierra Leone, Endlessly. Those are the 3 i like. Sierra is my favorite of the "favorites". Just a Touch my reasonable dark horse and Endlessly my favorite long shot. Forever Young and Catching Freedom, it seems like EVERYONE is touting them. So huge red flag in my opinion. The more I hear the talking heads on the betting channels and Joe public in the comment section hyping a horse, the more I want to stay away from that horse.
Sierra Leone/Catching Freedom Exacta Box throw in Honor Marie, Fierceness and Resilience underneath on the Tri......Japan horse gets nothing 0 for 20. Thorpedo Anna will crush Oaks field.....Probably would hit the board in the Derby if she had points.
Wish there was a horse named "Of Mojo Hand". How incredible would it be if "Just a Touch" came in first and "Of Mojo Hand" came in second? Any other Deadheads and Pigpen fans out there?? Ha
Irad Ortiz has never won a KY derby and he won’t this year Tyler Gafflione runs Churchill Downs period. Watch Sierra Leone’s last race he is a f-ing monster and will love the distance! He was a 2.3 million dollar yearling
@@markgreenwood7540 bellamy road proved the beyers to be just an opinion. beyer said he was even money to win the triple crown and was better than secretariat. the same day bellamy road won the wood on a track that was blazing fast all day. afleet alex won the arkansas derby on a slow tiring track. beyer gave bellamy road a 120 beyer and gave afleet alex an 85. afleet alex ran 7 lengths faster than bellamy road then he beat him in the derby by 7 lengths. beyer also said afleet alex was a sprinter that may be able to stretch out to a mile. then he won the preakness and belmont
STOP JINXING THAT HORSE...YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN THE GET HURT LIKE BARBARO AND OTHERS. LIKE QB BRADY THE G.O.A.T. ALWAYS SAID "EAT A PIECE OF HUMBLE PIE 🥧" DON'T BE ARROGANT.
Dude stop smoking the winner is Sierra Leone or Muth if he gets in! Sierra Leone has one loss to dornoch and he barely lost. Gunrunner is his father and he is a Monster sire! Bet the house on him
You're absolutely right fierceness is going to bounce!
You made some good
Points but I still think fierceness is going to win.
Fierce remind me of war emblem a beast
I like resilience. He will be just behind the pace and can close from just off the pace. He's not a deep closer.
Good tip bro no way fierceness can beat him
My opinion, when I have seen the videos of the horses with a chance of winning in the Kentucky Derby, I see that Sierra Leone has a beastly run, so much so that when it turns in the final stretch and changes hands, it charges violently inwards but it is because of the desire to run more and more, until the jockey realizes when he has the victory and leaves him alone. This horse is brutal. Another detail in Sierra Leone is their long strides, greater stretching and their individual finishes in the last 400 meters, which they put in 24 seconds and a fraction or less, barbaric.
I like leone but still betting a closer in the derby is risky. Usually on or close to the pace horses win
Fierceness big wins have come with soft paces, which rarely happens at the Derby!
Chasing Freedom.
Forever Hung would be a great name for a horse
Nice job! My bold prediction is that Cox will win both the Derby and Oaks! I like Catching Freedom even more now, after seeing some of his late pace figures.
@Mar.T.365. Hate it when other horse players agree with me.
The trainer of fierceness know what is required to.win ,the jockey is great in the derby ,so you may sayers will be whited after he cross the line ,There's no other speed unless fix use just a touch but remember fierceness won stalking I. The.breeders cup juvi
Win has he won dq and a weak field
well you have the rite jockey now you need a good post draw.
Read up on the final 3/8ths. Sierra Leone does NOT make the cut at under :38. He was .02 off. That’s ok. Dating back to Big Brown who also didn’t finish under 38, 7 of the Derby winners did not go under 38. That’s almost half since 2008.
I had a Derby list with Dornach at 3rd but decided to toss him. Perhaps his Remsen was a fluke. Then his FOY win beating a bunch of no-names showed he hasn’t improved. He doesn’t make the under 38 mark.
*My* *Derby* *Dozen*
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Catching Freedom
4. Honor Marie
5. Resilience
6. Just Steel
7. Endlessly
Toss
Forever Young
Stronghold
Just A Touch
Epic Ride
Dornoch
Encino
Domestic Product
Track Phantom
Mystic Dan
It’s true about Fierceness. He’s sink or swim. He either wins easily or he doesn’t hit the board. Add the Pletcher factor who isn’t the most efficient in big races like this.
Endlessly is this weird wildcard to me. I see Kitten’s Joy on top with Langfuhr on the bottom. Is he a turf sprinter? But then he had an excellent closing finish and the Jeff Ruby has shown to be a useful prep recently with Rich Strike and Two Phil’s coming from it.
I see Sierra Leone like an Epicenter/Zandon. If he doesn’t win, he’ll still hit the board. Catching Freedom made an earlier move in the Risen Star and SL still caught him. CF, Honor Marie, and Resilience finished behind Track Phantom.
Sierra Leone is a BIG HORSE and he has a very long stride. Catching Freedom is a small horse and you can see how quickly Sierra Leone quickly caught him in the Risen Star. He has a little of Zenyatta/Easy Goer. Big, strong horse and he’s moving like a locomotive.
Sierra Leone still has his own question marks. He’s never had a 100+ Beyer. The last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby dates back to 1991 with Strike the Gold. We’ve had recent BG winners like Good Magic, Essential Quality, Zandon, and Tapit Trice who all lost in the Derby.
CF beat track phantom in the La Derby
forever youngs a freak . He ran the fastest final 400m ever in the UAE and thts after going 4 and5 wide and did it on the wrong lead, he won the Saudi race on the wrong lead too. He reminds me of a 1920s throw back all heart and runs his ass off every race. His dosage index is perfect his pedigree is insane just a perfect derby horse... I got him , Honor Marie and Sierra Leone topping on my list..
his 1st cousin is sierra leone.
@@rick-ug3rdWow really
CATCHING FREEDOM ALL DAY LONG@
best of luck to you on derby day
At the risk of being boring... pace makes race..hard to predict which confirmed front runners will break well and get to the front.. the pace of the derby is almost always faster than we think..these horses are super amped up...tend to agree on fierceness...no way in hell hes gonna waltz to the front unopposed in 24 like he did in Florida..i probably just put him in the winners circle but hes gonna be overbet and i still have my doubts....
my 2cents 1- fierceness wins or runs way back not even in the superf. 2- for a euro or japan to win they would have to have a real prep race in the u.s 3 sierra hits the 1st-2nd spot if the post is good & 4- hope all the dornoch -track ph. bandwagon bet them heavy but i think most are jumping off i never was on. i like a bubble horse in the oaks so have to wait.
I agree with Fierceness. He either gets the setup he wants and wins it or get shuffle in the pack and never a threat. He needs a good break and leading pack in the first turn.
I always look at horses that won 100 point races and he the best in that category.
I think the Japan horse will be there
me to
Birdstone was considerably smaller than Smarty Jones, but who won the Belmont? Like the one for 17 angle. Not sold on the smaller-horse-can't-win-the-Derby theory.
northern dancer who is in the pedigree of every horse running in the derby was a tiny little horse.
I'll take Sierra Leon and Honor Marie on top of them 2, Just Steel, Endlessly, Forever Young and Fierceness. Likely to Tri key that and put some money on Sierra Leon to win as well.
All of them got a decent chance.nice strategy
One of the top five will win, but second and third place could be 10-1 or higher.
Fierceness is too slow to stay in striking position.
Forever Young's grandsire is Sunday Silence (best Japanese sire.)
No idea what the Oaks holds.
I will bet Seize the Grey if he draws in.
Just a Touch, Sierra Leone, Endlessly. Those are the 3 i like. Sierra is my favorite of the "favorites". Just a Touch my reasonable dark horse and Endlessly my favorite long shot. Forever Young and Catching Freedom, it seems like EVERYONE is touting them. So huge red flag in my opinion. The more I hear the talking heads on the betting channels and Joe public in the comment section hyping a horse, the more I want to stay away from that horse.
Sierra leone is my pick ..
I Agree Ok
Forever Young will win it.
Fierceness wins and flirts with 2:00 flat.
People forget Secretariat lost 1/4 of his races.
Heyyyyy! That's my line! LOL. "lost 1/4 his races". But it's true!
IMO: the best Japanese horse sent over to run in the KD was in 2022; Crown Pride.
Derma Sotogake was the horse to win last year and blew it
@@holyspirit7852 but he was not
Crown Pride: im kicking him out regardless
@@holyspirit7852 derma sotogake did his run in the BC.
I think talking just a bit slower will make your podcast more enjoyable.
Even secretariat had s couple bad races
I’m going with Sierra Leone to Forever Young.
Best of luck to you this year
Sierra Leone/Catching Freedom Exacta Box throw in Honor Marie, Fierceness and Resilience underneath on the Tri......Japan horse gets nothing 0 for 20. Thorpedo Anna will crush Oaks field.....Probably would hit the board in the Derby if she had points.
Wish there was a horse named "Of Mojo Hand". How incredible would it be if "Just a Touch" came in first and "Of Mojo Hand" came in second? Any other Deadheads and Pigpen fans out there?? Ha
Irad Ortiz has never won a KY derby and he won’t this year Tyler Gafflione runs Churchill Downs period. Watch Sierra Leone’s last race he is a f-ing monster and will love the distance! He was a 2.3 million dollar yearling
not sure if its gonna be this year but its only a matter of time before irad gets one
@horseracingdaily yup it’s just a matter of time! Flavian Prat has been in the money last 3 yrs
Thorpedo Anna and Tarifa in the oaks.
Tarifa looks dangerous to me
@@HorseRacingDaily thorpedo anna-ways and means
110 Beyer buddy
the most worthless number in horse racing.
Those kind of numbers are not worthless. So who’s your pick?
@@markgreenwood7540 bellamy road proved the beyers to be just an opinion. beyer said he was even money to win the triple crown and was better than secretariat. the same day bellamy road won the wood on a track that was blazing fast all day. afleet alex won the arkansas derby on a slow tiring track. beyer gave bellamy road a 120 beyer and gave afleet alex an 85. afleet alex ran 7 lengths faster than bellamy road then he beat him in the derby by 7 lengths. beyer also said afleet alex was a sprinter that may be able to stretch out to a mile. then he won the preakness and belmont
Interesting research. Thx but who’s your pick?
You cannot say bad trainer. He is.100 percent than you.
All you jokers bet the other horses and make my odds go up on Fierceness!!! Thanks
he could win no doubt but pletcher has had about 7 or 8 derby favorites get beat.
This is a weak field.
🎙 Him can't place,can't go on no bet for me
Him dont beat nobody in the Florida derby
I can tell you from NOW him can't beat catching freedom,Sierra leone or Resilience
Dornoch was one of the horses I like for the derby but he ran his last race with only 4 horses so I can't back him
STOP JINXING THAT HORSE...YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN THE GET HURT LIKE BARBARO AND OTHERS. LIKE QB BRADY THE G.O.A.T. ALWAYS SAID "EAT A PIECE OF HUMBLE PIE 🥧" DON'T BE ARROGANT.
Dude stop smoking the winner is Sierra Leone or Muth if he gets in! Sierra Leone has one loss to dornoch and he barely lost. Gunrunner is his father and he is a Monster sire! Bet the house on him