I listened/viewed this 2 hours after you posted. I think you got the year wrong in (both) the description and your (verbal) introduction. I used to make the same error on the first check I would write of the year (years past).
@brentlorrilliere6057 - Thanks or the add to this conversation. Monday's rally has not eliminated the pattern, which leaves both of our scenarios - possibly as "preferred/alternate" - We shall see.
SPX made a new low. ES did not. Argument against running flat C wave to complete ABC structure is that a running flat as described by Elliott occurs in the setting of an irregular flat. In this case the minute B wave of Minor A did not exceed the minute A wave.
@danielhoffman2858 - I'm in agreement with you on the SPX/ES. I also understand the argument against running flat 3 wave to complete ABC -- this is an area where I'm finding changes within EW and how we label and count due to the advancements within quant trading. Also, the options flows have added changes within EW. I don't feel it has invalidated EW, but I do believe as analysts we need to make adjustments to the original thesis or how Elliott originally described the structures. As always, thank you Daniel for adding to these ongoing conversations!
Unfortunate that Elliott is not still alive to determine whether the rules of Elliott wave need to be adjusted to accommodate computerized algorithmic trading and option flow.
@@danielhoffman2858 well yeah.... one of my biggest beefs is how the market will take out a previous 4th then come down and take the opposite side, wiping out both ends. The liquidity algo grab. When was the last time you saw SPX do a legitimate first wave up with an ABC down in 3 waves to 62%? It's always a crapshoot as to whether we hold the low by a tick on these retraces or start over when you think you have a valid preceding wave. The MM's know every single TA trick in the book, including EW & will do everything in their power to make sure you are either on the wrong side of the market or missing the big move. In nearly case, our EW invalidation points are at (or near) ATH to confirm the trend is up & way down to confirm the opposite redirection. Utterly ridiculous. Trade price action, measure waves to see where it can go, trail positions, see if analysis confirms... That's about how I do things now, with the inclusion of WD Gann for potential turn points. A valid ES long is a break above 6109 with a stop at 5865. Who trades like that? I think to some degree, we are all now gambling because following the rule book to a T is near impossible. I tried it years ago and missed many of the big moves waiting for the market to abide the rules and it just wouldn't. We have to have some leeway from the days of RNE.
case in point -- we rallied 194 points from the low to today & still have no confirmation the bottom is in. I suspected it was on Jan 2nd, but can't prove a damn thing. Your case (or anyone elses) for a dump to 5800 is just as valid as mine for a rise > 6200.
@@THT1back to the future :) Happy New Year Michael, I have labeled NVDA A completed, b in progress with CES events, looking for hitting resistance and start the C…could extend, will see.
Possible ABCDE triangle?
I listened/viewed this 2 hours after you posted. I think you got the year wrong in (both) the description and your (verbal) introduction. I used to make the same error on the first check I would write of the year (years past).
@robertjohannes4659 - Thanks for the heads up --
it's a 1-2-1-2 nested down going into Non farm payrolls on Friday. We also get JOLTs on Tuesday and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
@brentlorrilliere6057 - Thanks or the add to this conversation. Monday's rally has not eliminated the pattern, which leaves both of our scenarios - possibly as "preferred/alternate" - We shall see.
SPX made a new low. ES did not. Argument against running flat C wave to complete ABC structure is that a running flat as described by Elliott occurs in the setting of an irregular flat. In this case the minute B wave of Minor A did not exceed the minute A wave.
@danielhoffman2858 - I'm in agreement with you on the SPX/ES. I also understand the argument against running flat 3 wave to complete ABC -- this is an area where I'm finding changes within EW and how we label and count due to the advancements within quant trading. Also, the options flows have added changes within EW. I don't feel it has invalidated EW, but I do believe as analysts we need to make adjustments to the original thesis or how Elliott originally described the structures. As always, thank you Daniel for adding to these ongoing conversations!
Unfortunate that Elliott is not still alive to determine whether the rules of Elliott wave need to be adjusted to accommodate computerized algorithmic trading and option flow.
Indeed!!
@@danielhoffman2858 well yeah.... one of my biggest beefs is how the market will take out a previous 4th then come down and take the opposite side, wiping out both ends. The liquidity algo grab. When was the last time you saw SPX do a legitimate first wave up with an ABC down in 3 waves to 62%? It's always a crapshoot as to whether we hold the low by a tick on these retraces or start over when you think you have a valid preceding wave. The MM's know every single TA trick in the book, including EW & will do everything in their power to make sure you are either on the wrong side of the market or missing the big move. In nearly case, our EW invalidation points are at (or near) ATH to confirm the trend is up & way down to confirm the opposite redirection. Utterly ridiculous. Trade price action, measure waves to see where it can go, trail positions, see if analysis confirms... That's about how I do things now, with the inclusion of WD Gann for potential turn points. A valid ES long is a break above 6109 with a stop at 5865. Who trades like that? I think to some degree, we are all now gambling because following the rule book to a T is near impossible. I tried it years ago and missed many of the big moves waiting for the market to abide the rules and it just wouldn't. We have to have some leeway from the days of RNE.
case in point -- we rallied 194 points from the low to today & still have no confirmation the bottom is in. I suspected it was on Jan 2nd, but can't prove a damn thing. Your case (or anyone elses) for a dump to 5800 is just as valid as mine for a rise > 6200.
2024 or 2025 😂
Sorry about that --
@@THT1back to the future :) Happy New Year Michael, I have labeled NVDA A completed, b in progress with CES events, looking for hitting resistance and start the C…could extend, will see.