Trump in danger as Harris close to victory threshold
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- Опубліковано 17 лис 2024
- "I think if she's four-and-a-half points ahead nationally, she's almost certainly won four-and-a-half to five."
Kamala Harris needs to reach a 4.5 point poll lead in order to secure victory, says James Kangasooriam, pollster and chief research officer at Focal Data.
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If only polls never underestimated trump to begin with I wouldn’t be worried at all
Yes, but we didn't know who he was back then. We do now!
Keep going, keep voting, Kamala has to save us from that henious Felon!
American here! I must respectfully disagree with the opinion given here. The Electoral College is complicated and, frankly, in some cases, very undemocratic.
It's going to matter more about what the polls in swing states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.
Unfortunately, the popular vote means absolutely nothing.
What this means is: if Trump loses the popular vote again by an even wider margin than he lost the last 2 times, and yet manages to cheat out another win through the Electoral College with the help of a biased Supreme Court, there really will be an insurrection in the US. The Civil War will look like a church picnic.
Idk but I hope Kamala wins. I cannot feel safe in. Country with a dictator facist insurrectionist who’s already made threats to democracy indirectly.
Very legit point. Disagree that Virginia is a swing state, though. Maybe North Carolina, def Wisconsin and Michigan, Nevada as well. Don't let the polls lull you into a false sense of security. Vote!
Trump has already lost the election
As R.E.M. said,
"He's a tournament of lies."
I can’t fathom how even 1 person would vote for the orange thing.
I'm surrounded by them
= = It's astonishing how readily some individuals accept Trump’s false claims and misinformation, despite their glaring absurdity.
America will be stronger when we’re past the dark days of Donald Trump.
?? You want someone who can’t answer a simple question to be the head of the leader of the free world?! 🤔🤡🤣
@rosielee938 you're in a cult. There's still time to be on the right side of history.
@@rosielee938no, the poster says they are NOT voting for Trump.
What a cult of Family, peace, love & unity!! Gosh that’s so bad 🤔🤣🤡 take your rose tinted glasses off and get away from mainstream media.
🇺🇸PRESIDENT TRUMP 2024 MAGA🇺🇸
You are missing an important point. More women vote in the elections (including battleground states) than men. They are also more numerically. Polls consistently show Harris ahead by approx 17 points amongst women and Trump by about 12% amongst men. If you add up the math, that is an 8 or even 9 point advantage for Harris considering women vote more reliably and their numbers are higher than men. Yet people say it is a tied race. I am not sure how the math adds up
But you are not considering how the percentages are distributed by electoral states. Don't peanut butter spread those numbers across the country. And the polling is notorious for under representing Trump
@@gregoriopassport Pollsters have changed their methodology to compensate for Trump's previous over performances. You're right otherwise though.
@@gregoriopassportthere’s no women in the swing states? 😂
Many women have the intuition that Harris a fraud -
@@rayvanwayenburg998 Did he say that?
🇺🇸 HARRIS/WALZ 2024 🇺🇸
FOR HONESTY, FREEDOMS &
JUSTICE!!!
Let’s WIN ALL 50 STATES AMERICA!!!!! 👍👍
This is the best analysis of the American election that I've seen yet on UA-cam. No obvious bias.
Harris is the winner, neck and neck what nonsense 😂
Trump is weird.
Explain?
@@rosielee938 troll
@@rosielee938really?
Have you never SEEN his weird rallies where he just blithers about absolutely NOTHING?
THEY’RE EEDING THE DWARGS!
Troll, lol is that the best you can muster….Get yourself some education. I bet at school your nickname was ‘Bungalow’
🇺🇸PRESIDENT TRUMP 2024 MAGA🇺🇸
Trump unfit for office, will get worse as he ages...
Poor America ! 😢🇺🇲❤
🇺🇸 HARRIS/WALZ 2024 🇺🇸
FOR HONESTY, FREEDOMS &
JUSTICE!!!!
end times for MAGA
Please god
🇺🇸PRESIDENT TRUMP 2024 MAGA🇺🇸
@@Slothy_12Simpleton or bot?
@@pifflepockleI'd say simpleton.
@@pifflepockle 🇺🇸PRESIDENT TRUMP 2024 MAGA🇺🇸
Lock Trump up!
What for ?
@@markabrahams2191and i think he is breaking the laws and he got guilty by the judge and he should go to jail for that since he did break the laws and he have a criminal record so i think the elections should disqualify him from elections and put her a automatic win
You want a delusional hyena in power?! 🤣🤦🏻♂️🤡
@@markabrahams2191STEALING NATIONAL SECRETS, THEN LYING ABOUT IT AND TRYING TO HANG ONTO THEM IN ORDER TO SELL THEM TO OUR ENEMIES.
@@markabrahams2191You seem to forget that trump is due to be sentanced for one of his many crimes shortly after the election.
The choice-either democracy or neofascism. Trump has already said that he wants to be a dictator.
@@steveslade3901 and Harris wants to curtail free speech
FOH
@@steveslade3901 stupidity at its finest
Go Blue 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙🔵💙💙🔵💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
🤡🤣 get a laughing Hyena into power that can’t answer a simple question without going into how she was raised 🤔🤣🤦🏻♂️
🇺🇸PRESIDENT TRUMP 2024 MAGA🇺🇸
❤
Trumpovich is fading fast 😅
🇺🇸PRESIDENT TRUMP 2024 MAGA🇺🇸
@@Slothy_12weird.
@@Slothy_12 ; You are gd delusional, get out of here - go to Putin he has what you need, and he will make you a hero and give you flowers!
Agree weirdos 😂
@@Slothy_12 ok botski 😂
Kamala Harris for president 2024 🙏
President of the local bowling league.
And 2028 😊
Andrew looks gutted that his boy looks like he's going to lose.
You mean the old man
@@kathywebb7728 Both you and bobikdylan are correct.
Neil doesn't support Trump.
@@LewisSkeeterYeah he does.... Neil is pretty partisan in favour of 'Conservative' political parties.
@@benghiskahn3673There is a major divide among 'conservatives' about Trump. The old-fashioned Reaganite Republicans loathe Trump. Andrew Neil, though British, is very much in the anti-Trump camp. I myself am a traditional 'conservative' and I can't stand Trump. I hardly recognise him as an upholder of democracy.
Not listening so much to polls. Gonna put my faith in Allan Lichtman and his record.
And in your own action - by voting!
Same here.
He said Gore would win in a landslide. Atlas intel is more accurate
As always, people: Don't get complacent. If you can and still haven't, go register yourself and vote for Harris!
2016 can still happen again.
That's the very thing, if people don't turn out like in 2016, Trump wins. However just like in 2020, when people do turn out, he loses. It's as plain and simple as that.
Bahahaha
Please see Trump's past U.S. record job losses, terrible national debt, lack of Covid solutions, his cult indoctrination, and demented selfishness. Please be wise and vote country over division. 💙
His tarrifs will drive up prices on anything that comes from China and that is A LOT! he is also punishing the tax bracket of 100k-400k to pay the bulk of taxes so people who make more get huge tax breaks and billionaires pay dollars. It’s not fair.
People have to vote, Hillary was ahead got more votes but it was not enough because people stayed home.
Yep, still a lot of racist misogynist Trump voters out there. People need to vote.
Nobody is staying home 😅
The anger is palpable 😅
Trumpovich is going to jail 😂
Exactly. Excellent point.
Vote Trump to save our democracy and economy from socialism.
This..☝️
Go for blues
"Trump is danger". There, fixed it for you.
You said it!!!!!💙
A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin. Vote 💙 to STOP Trump's Project 2025.
Based on what?
@@michasunafish4844 Based on Trump being Putins lapdog. Not to mention being a pathetically weak leader.
And a vote for vance.
And he's a whack job.
If Harris wins we will all be dead or enslaved,so vote your conscience idiot!
@Stevekpb no you r just weak upstairs
One thing that favors Trump that’s not showing up in polls is how many people will vote for him and not admit it. No fan of either candidate but the election will probably be a nail biter
Trump's way ahead. Harris is polling way behind Hillary's number in 16
Trump was so Dangerous we could afford to live when he was President ! Pppfff try again !
TRUMP IS DEFINITELY NOT A CHRISTIAN...😎 VOTE BLUE
@chuckcrowe2466: What has religion have to do with any of it? Only to the Bible thumpers! If you vote for a person based purely on their religious affiliation then you shouldn't be voting!
Dump the Trump flush 20 times😂
Democracy is the rightful winner not a predator of women and a narcissist 💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
Trump’s not gonna win, win, win, but rather whine, whine, whine when he loses again…This time to a black woman!!!! He’s gonna be mad, very very mad.
NO, he is already mad .''VERY VERY MAD'.
I’m gonna love it 😂😂
You will be mad when trump saves your country
@@jimrussell1818 MAD TO VOTE FOR HIM!.
Trump is a loser and I am happy he’s running scared.
Yes that's true,be careful Americans
Of course, he's in Danger. That over-inflated, ego-centric Cheese Puff COULD EXPLODE AT ANY TIME
😅
Dementia Donnie is going to spend the end of his life in court and home confinement
God, I sure hope so. I really don't want to see my country choose hate.
@@thomasmoll4884 yes, but what about the legal system?why is the Trumpler criminal not in jail?!
I think it's over since the Taylor Swift endorsement. Cause young women are going to vote in much higher numbers than usual.
This is the only poll saying this silliness! New Jersey and even NY are now in play!
@@richardfoster1969 can't trust polling.
The problem is polling is manipulated based on previous elections, and that seems reasonable to do. But each of the last 2 presidential elections had weirdness associated with it. In 2016, most people didn't predict the jump in uneducated white men that would vote for Trump, since Romney and McCain didn't do as well with them. That was the reason Trump won and Wi, Mi and PA were mostly surprises. And then in 2020, Biden did much better among that group than Hillary did. You also had the huge amount of mail-in voters that went for Biden. I would say this time Kamala is closer to Hillary, but at the same time young people, especially women are much more motivated to vote because of Roe v Wade being overturned. All of that change makes it hard for pollsters to make accurate models.
Harris leads by a huge margin in women voters, the Democrats encourage everyone to vote early and by mail if possible, Trump's messaging is don't use mail and vote on the day.
The democrats have a huge ground game to get out the vote with thousands of volunteers
I dont think we'll have any idea about who the winner is until all the votes have been counted at least once
Mitt Romney and John McCain are Democrats now.
@@paulgrimmer2600 nah, the trend will be seen early. I knew Hillary was going to lose as soon as they said VA was too close to call at 7pm. And for Biden it was called as soon as the voting ended.
@@PeterSedesse i hope youre right, i really want to get this over with
Danger,danger,danger....
End of the ( Trump ) world!
What has the democrats done for you?
@@rosielee938 Danger danger danger! TROLL ALERT!
Don't feed the troll.
🤣🤣 stop deflecting and answer the damn question?! I forgot you don’t have the brain cells to do so 🤣
Say hi to loser Putie, troll!!!!
Noone have to answer your question. Calm down troll.
Andrew Neil? Really?? He’s shown his colours and is biased journalist
Yep. He’s a right whinger.
Trump can just go away forever - he's a big creep
❤kamala Harris
More clickbait. Every time The Times leads with a title like this, I automatically think the opposite. Indeed, the expert says, “the fundamentals of the election are in favour of Trump.”
No wonder the public distrusts traditional media 😂
So you're saying this is clickbait, but yet you still clicked on it??
@@odoylerules03 Errrr, logically yes. How would you know otherwise without listening to the post first and then commenting on accuracy?
Incorrect. He said that the fundamentals are in favour of Trump but that his campaign has failed to take advantage of it. Trump is simply incompetent.
@@trevorohara9066 wrong
Everything on UA-cam is clickbait...people can make money this way .. right wing channels are exactly the same, but they have Trump leading in the polls
Blue wave coming 🌊
Some performers as they get old, simply don't know their time is up & that it's time to leave the stage. That's Andrew Neil...
Maybe he can lie is way out of an insane asylum
Never mind nat silver - check out Alan Lichtman who has a stunning record of correctly predicting American presidential elections!
Exactly
Yep. Polls are dumb at this point and just funded by a ton of different organizations
He said Gore would win in a landslide. Others are better than him.
@@Robert-fs6ge lichtman's keys are not real therefore his forecast is invalid.
@@edl7454 He got some right and wrong too . Atlas intel is accurate They don't oversample either party
God Bless . . Pennsylvania , Michigan , N. Carolina , Florida and Taylor Swift . . 💙 🇺🇸 . . 💙 🇺🇸
Mr. Kangasooriam is excellent. I just want to push back on confidence that Kamala will plateau before the election day. It would be a safe bet, but as Trump sees his chance at winning slipping away he is going to get even more frantic than he is now and that is going to powerfully effect how people actually vote when they get in the booth.
You mean if Trump concentrated more on misleading people about the issues he’d be doing better.
All grievances and no policies and his brain is breaking more and more every day. He is insulting new groups of people every day, like Haitians and those with actual disabilities or family members with disabilities. Most important thing my taxes will go up and the tariffs are a bad idea! It didn’t work when he was in office and we had to bail out the farmers to the tune of 16 billion.
Trump does not have issues, he is playing 100% on feelings...
He has a "concept" of something but doesn't appear to know what it is 😂😂😂. He's too busy spouting racist comments and threatening a "Purge" of violence ( his words, not mine). Get ready for Trump to turn water into Whine !
@@geofo60 "Look, no one knows more about concepts than me. I have the best, most perfect concepts."
His brain is breaking, he is sounding more violent every day and he insults new groups of people everyday. I’m an independent. The GOP is not even trying to get my vote. It’s all a show for the racist magas brainwashed with Russian propaganda.
GET TO THE POLLS AND VOTE BLUE!!!💙💙💙
trump is hated.
Yeah but he has a bigly brain. The most beautiful bigly brain.
With a passion ….
💙🇺🇸
Only by decent folk unfortunately
There are cult followers that love their master.
No he's loved by real Americans not these two balloons there worse than the clowns that did the debate
Trump continuously slurred his way through a completely incoherent speech, and onlookers were a bit confused as to what was even happening. But if you imagine his words coming from a drunken relative during a Thanksgiving meal, it actually makes a lot more sense.
@FlipperKelly: And Harris can't string a coherent sentence together either. Neither one should even be on the ballot!
Andrew still looks angry after getting roasted by Brian Tyler Cohen 😂
Where?
To be fair, Brian does that with everyone.
@@bc5295 on his YT channel
Why can’t these two guys say VP Kamala Harris’ name Comma La !
Vote Blue for a better America
Go Kamala
you times folks should have said this was an op ed and not anything but a news show. trump is not leading on three issues. az for az . we turned blue in the last two elections . also friend the mid terms are federal elections .
The argument that ‘we need to know more of Kamala Harris’, is nonsense. Even if you aren’t familiar with every stance she takes, you already know who Trump is and what he stands for. Based on that alone, it’s an obvious choice. I’d rather vote for my cat than for the orange boy!
Don't worry - for thr nrxt eight years they can simply call her Madam President.
Empty vessels make the most noise. Trump voters are more likely to accept polling to get their ignorant voice out. Most normal folk have better things to do.
This is the best account I’ve heard recently of how to understand US political polls.
This aged like a glass of milk on a hot summer day
When I was at school, we were told to stay away from danger strangers. Stay away from Trump
It's so embarassing, as an American, to see people of other countries talking about our election. That we could actually have HALF A COUNTRY that thinks Donald Trump should be our President (again). That he should represent our policies, beliefs, American values to the world. It's disgusting, and embarassing.
Andrew Neil? Again? Why are Times Radio trying so hard to resurrect Neil's failed career? He's been a national joke since his stint at GBeebies, only Times Radio (Rupert Murdoch) seem prepared to give him any work these days but boy are they giving him a lot of it.
Try and stay focused....
@@peterpelly5756 Are you Andrew Neil's bodyguard? Seems so.
@@jocko4598 Look who's got his daily conspiracy all buttoned up......
Because the Spectator got bought by the gbnews bloke that he already had a fight with so ….. he will float back on the BBC soon just watch
Failed? Hardly
At the Seniors centre where I work Trump would not be allowed off the locked ward.
PLEASE DON'T DEGRADE YOUR PORGRAM BY NON AMERICAN GUESTS WHO REALLY DON'T HAVE A REALLY GOOD GRASP ON WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE GROUND!!!
From an American now living in the UK and has worked on the last three presidential elections!!!
So as an American working in the UK, you claim that a non-American doesn't get it?
Your hypocrisy is truly comical....
@@peterpelly5756 I'm a Brit and from the conversations I've had with other Americans, I actually have a firmer grasp of the situation than they do! e.g. One didn't know who Josh Shapiro was nor the significance of his position!!! I was flabbergasted!
@@iansaliba-curtis1041 lol I recall speaking with a couple enlightened Brits after Boris was elected. Asked them if they thought Russia had a hand in it?
Let's just say your nations ego is no less then the Yanks.....
I gave them a slap on the back and sent them on there way with all the Yankees....
@@iansaliba-curtis1041 Maybe the significance isn't as great as you are desperate to think it is?
@@laserbrain7774 Who said I'm desperate? You sound like MAGA.
The most salient issues for the US candidate are: Are they an insurrectionist? Are they a felon? Are they geriatric/senile?
I wish it weren't so, but I think Trump is going to win quite comfortably. She might Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, but I think he'll win the other swing states. I'm not convinced of her polling, or his.
She’ll win bigly.
Its time for Trump to go far away forever
I still feel better that it isn't trump by 2 points
Still manufacturing propaganda for Kemala Harris i see😂😂
Great isn’t it 😊
Wake up kid
Says the cultist ignorant enough to believe a rapi$t and fraudster. 🤣
The argument that ‘we need to know more of Kamala Harris’, is nonsense. Even if you aren’t familiar with every stance she takes, you already know who Trump is and what he stands for. Based on that alone, it’s an obvious choice. I’d rather vote for my cat than for the orange boy!
@@tiongcomonico Yeah its such a cop out. Funny how the ones needing to know more literally take Trump on face value with all the lies he spews.
See also for more thorough analysis: 9 measures that predict a Kamala landslide | Shrinking Trump
Insane he's ahead in Michigan
What a great democracy America is!How can even even one American vote for Trumpler and Disadvance?!
This isn’t going to age well.
This aged well
The famous people that are endorsing Kamala will be bringing they young fans into her fold 🌊🌊🌊
This video and most of the comments show me we are in 2016 all over again.
Polls could be overcompensating for Trump voters this time around. 2022 was going to be a “red tide” for republicans and those predictions proved wrong. Whatever happened to the LePen government - the forecast this summer for France?
It's been pretty consistent that the polls over estimate Democrats when he's on the ballot. 2020, Biden barely won the swing states. Harris is doing worse than Biden. She can still win, but she will have to win Pa, Wi, and Mn to win based on current polling
Proper title America and the whole world in danger if she wins its game over for us all.
With voting being optional, not compulsory, American elections seem to be decided by the size of the turnout candidates are able to achieve by motivating their supporters.
Compare this with my country Australia where voting is compulsory and turnout is always over 95%.
So the question is, can Harris or Trump motivate more of their supporters to vote?
The Electoral College system is undemocratic and crazy. No other country does it. The candidate with the most votes should win.
Hilary got about 3 million more votes than Trump, but still lost the Electoral College. Crazy!
Will the USA remain a democracy under Harris or become a failed democracy under Trump?
The problem is not just making sure Trump loses the vote, but the histrionics, squealing and squawking and squalling and other troubles he will inevitably cause and stir up when he does - is, indeed, certainly planning right now.
who believes a polling company whos chief researcher is about 30 years old
Think these types of People have to convince themselves Harris will win on what Policies exactly.
Other polls put Trump ahead. Truth is it’s too close to call
The place we are at is that it's not now possible to accurately measure American political public opinion.
No future, no hope, no dream, no goal and no vision under Chump Trumpig.
🇺🇸🫶💙🟦Vice President Kamala Harris & Governor Tim Walz🟦💙🫶🇺🇸: "Future, hope, dream, goal and vision for all Americans."
I’m just looking forward to elon and donalds hissy fits when he loses 😂😂
Basically whatever the media & polls say the opposite happens. Media is completely out of tough with the people.
One thing the US voting citizens need to keep in mind. Trump and Putin are friends (bff), and Trump doesn't think of Russia as an adversary, one that has always been a threat to the US since their 1917 Bolshevik/Communist revolution.
Personally, I don't like Harris either, but if you have a POTUS that thinks of a threat of another country as "misunderstood" at best, you need to re-evaluate that person. A lot can happen in 4 years.
Trump has previously stated that "he's not a fan of sanctions," and sanctions that are in place are wearing down the Soviet war machine. He's also stated that he hopes Russia wins (Vance & Tucker too) and has stated that he's all in for giving Putin whatever he wants in Ukraine and, by extension, Europe. Also, withdrawing from Nato and inviting Russia to attack any Nato member that isn't paying its 2% of GDP towards its own defense spending. That doesn't mean it's costing the US an extra dime. That 2% isn't annual dues to Trump International golf club membership or Nato either. US troops get paid no matter where they are stationed, and equipment needs maintaining where ever it is too.
BTW, I voted for Trump the last two times also.
Trump may win the election. But if he does Americans will lose America!. A sicopathic autocrat in the Whitehouse!. FFS.
Never again!!!!
@@paulbird3235 Trump's a loser it's over
what happened last time? was it the No wars under Trump, the low inflation, the low cost of petrol? Was it that the lower class began to catch up to the middle class? Was it the secure border?
@@SebastianFlorida-t9p I pray you are correct my friend. 😂🙂...
😂 you are brainwashed. Wake up
Trump 2024. ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
😂😂😂😂🎉🎉🎉🎉you wish! Trump 2024!!! 😂😂😂
I sure hope Harris is winning. Watching from Ireland and horrified by Trump.
Listen, I very much hate how things are now. The economy is sheit, the wokeness is sky high, our western culture is at danger. We need a right wing government. Trully right wing. But I wouldn't trust trump woth my parakeet, let alone a whole country. How did the republican party manage to only produce this living bird dropping as a canditate, is beyond me....
Your polling is definitely wrong
4.5 ahead of trump and a lot of liberals in liberal states are either not voting or voting third party. Kamala is way ahead of trump with a lot of moderate republivans or conservatibe leaning independents im swing states favoring her over trump
This longshoremen strike could put the Harris campaign in jepody and could help Trump, I hope this doesn't happen
Not much is going to help Trump. Trump is a lost cause.
@jocko4598 if it effects supply chains, causes inflation and wreck the economy it can
He’ll instantly call for them to be locked up and fired and her support will only go up. He’s a lost cause is old donald.