What would YOU do on the river with Q♣Q♦? Your Stack (SB): 111,000 Their Stack (BTN): 296,500 Pot: 164,000 Board: T♣ T♠ 5♠ 8♦ A♥ BTN bets 296,500 (all-in) A) Call B) Fold
Hey Jonathan, don’t you think that Addamo could Raise A6, A7, A8, A9 suited. And then play exactly like the hand went. I think he could easily have an ace on the river and due to the 3bet sizing of brewer and the callings I think he is capped in JJ, QQ, KK, AA so he just could call with trapping aces and the other hands will need to fold on the river, due to the ace or trips. Let me know if something is off on my reasoning pls. Anyways very dizzy spot there.
I would fold, at least at the stakes I am playing, very few people are cabable of bluffing all the way. On the other hand, I might even get chips in the middle at the flop since at lower stakes many players overvalue their small pairs at paired boards, although maybe would not do that this deep. Ace at the river is perfect bluffing card but at microstakes people get scared to bluff when they see it... If I was against Addamo I would still probably be too scared to call, his line is screaming Tx to my microstakes wired instincts. Or then I'd just check-call every street hoping no A or K appears, giving him all the chances to be aggressive... and A at river would make me so annoyed. :D
@@edwardcarde7 This is where a reraise on the flop with boards like this are huge! You already have a great over pair, and unless your opponent has A-10, K-10, or J-10 (you block a lot of the Q-10 holdings), then the chance of him having a better hand is low. He only called Brewer's 3 bet preflop, and a lot of hands are available to play on the button especially when no one opened before him. Based on ranges, I'm banking on still having the better hand. If he DID flop trips, well then that's a cooler that's going to have to be paid off sometimes. I say having the better and because KK - AA are almost always 4 bet situations (although SOME slow play could be argued since he's on the button), but when you're deep stacked you want as much value as you can out of those hands.
I would probably fold the river because ace high flush draw got there too. Now I’m losing to any ace and any ten, not to mention a possible 55 for a flopped full house. Just a tough spot to call off your tournament on the river which is now just a marginal hand.
In the passive $50 tournaments I play with my buddies, this is a fold 100%. Against someone who is actually bluffing at a high frequency, I think it has to be a call. Easy to say when the cards are face up though...
i dont fear anyone. guys like chance cormuth, fedor holz, i feel like i am just as good if not better than them. i have some desire to improve but i don't believe in range advantage. blockers don't matter. and dont think min raising versus a 2.5 or 3x bb raise is + eV
Would love to see you analyze some hands against these aggressive players like Addamo or even Rampage where someone shows you the hand without telling you what they have and you have to analyze it live. Think it would be entertaining and maybe even more helpful
I thought call, but only after listening to your notes on the hand. Definitely not good enough to think through hands this well on my own yet. The note on A-high flush draws checking back turn isn’t something I would’ve picked up on
I’m almost certain that Addamo was about certain that brewer was holding either QQ or KK on the river and also thought Brewer would not risk his tournament life calling with either of those hands. I wonder what he would have done had a small non spade hit the river? Also would Brewer have folded the river had the ace not been there? Great hand analysis.
He played QQ pretty weak though, and i don't agree a paired board against one player is usually good for an over pair, much rather 10 10 board than a board with k/a on it. He didn't raise the flop raise so he had no idea where he is, check turn, then just calls, checks again showing he doesn't have the A and is scared of it. Really couldn't have played a premium hand worse. I look at it like i rather lose with quality hands than loose a bunch of chips and fold too its like losing 3 times, chips, bad play, and looking like you can be bully off your hands.
Two thoughts: 1) I don’t think pros check raise post flop with a 10 very often. 2) Anybody notice Addamo takes a big gulp after the river A? That’s a tell he missed his draw. I’m snap calling in this spot. But of course, I don’t play bigger than 2/5 cash games so what do I know. 🤷♂️
A collection of hands from good players defending their big blind would be cool! 😎 One of the toughest situations in modern NLH tournaments is playing the Big Blind because of both extra ante money and the small first-in raises And this spot very important Do you have advice for this spot?
Yea onve you add in the Kx suited and Qx suited in the Addamo bluff range there is so many bluffs say at least 15 combinations considering the pot odds for this situation you don't really have to be right many times. If I am facing an opponent who can certainly have these bluff here QQ is a call. However I have to also remind myself in the lower stakes I play my opponents more often than not have a bluff here.
Against someone like Addamo it's usually a 50/50 bluff in these spots and considering it's basically a 4 to 1 you should call...but i'd probably coward out and fold :D
Addamo isn't bluffing 50/50 here😅 He is bluffing at approximately the frequency that makes you indifferent between calling and folding. Otherwise he would just always be called by everyone.
Given the action that came before the river, Addamo's range included a lot of hand that could have an ace. Even with the QQ blockers, AJ or better represents a massive number of hands when added to all the hands that could hold a T. I don't see any way you don't fold if you are Brewer.
Yeah vs such opponents like Addamo im way more likely to call than to some random player on micros which mostly arent capable of such bluffs . Answer is sometimes call sometimes fold mostly depending on gut feeling
I personally would like to see failed bluffs :) most of poker content YT is suggesting to me it's either a hero call that gets busted because opponent had nuts or sick bluffs that go through i'd like to see more casual hands... with good folds from players and good bluff catches ;)
From a MDF perspective, we need to call about 60%. Our assumed range at the River: 6x 99 6xJJ 4x KQss/KJss/QJss/98ss; 3x QQ with a Spade / 3x KK with a Spade =22 combos 3x QQ without a Spade 3xKK 3xAJss+ 3xA7ss+ = 9 combos 1xTT 3x88 3xAA 6xAT 8x T9s/JTs/QTs/KTs =21 combos And, by pure magic: With this fairly aggressive range, consisting of 55 combos. QQ without Spade would indeed fit EXACTLY into our (33/55) crying-call range. ^^
You cannot use MDF like that. On some runouts that favors your range you would call a lot more than MDF and on some other runouts you would fold a lot more than MDF. But overall all flops/turns/rivers you would need to have MDF.
@@srki22 "Minimum Defense Frequency" obviously gives no information when you have a nutted range, or when your opponent is a maniacal fish, where you can call far more. - But, it can help to prevent otherwise profitable bluffs, when we lack further information. In our case: The QQ we hold should likely sit at the very bottom of our calling range, when we play a capable opponent who bluffs with nearly optimal frequency. While JJ may already be a tough laydown. If our opponent should bluff only rarely , either defined by board texture or player type, then we can certainly fold more frequently. To summarize: QQ sounds for me quite like marking the sweet spot, where we should still strongly lean towards a call (also if we modify our River range) when we face a very aggressive opponent. But: It is still a very tough call to make. )
You didn't really discuss Brewer's option to check-raise all-in on the turn. There are some upsides to it. It denies equity and avoids a scare card on the river inducing him into making an incorrect fold. Against Addamo's trip 10s your going broke either way. The only downside , which is significant, is it denies Brewer the option to bluff-catch the river.
On the turn lots of Brewer's range wouldve called the all-in (JJ, QQ, KK, AA). Non spades over cards like AK AQ wouldve folded anyway to a 32k bet on the turn so X/R all-in would be a disaster against most of the range. You only really deny equity from flush draws which Addamo blocks.
Knowing that Addamo's a pro and pros usually don't overbet or chase someone off when they have trips (unless they feel that their opponent(s) has(have) an overpair), I would have actually reraised on the flop. Gives me some more information from the get go (if he goes over the top) or just win the pot outright then. If he shoves, I could fold earlier thus saving me more chips than how this progressed. Playing like Brewer did, I don't think he has a good spot to call here and must fold.
@@bonniedinkis This "all-in with semi-strong hand against polarized range" thing is the absolute fishiest play there is and so many people just will not accept that it is bad
I think if I took the time to think it through I could get it right and call because first and foremost Addamo's knowledge and skill ;but 2nd is a big one, position and stack size (3:1 on the river) and Addamo's knowledge of the power of these 2 things (his all in doesn't put him at risk of getting stacked, he can lose and have almost 20 blinds left.). 3rd would be the missed flush draw and the absolute perfect bluffing card (seen missed flush draws river jam so many times, I call it the "no other way to win the hand river jam"). Also the all in to me doesn't make a lot of sense to me, if he really did have say a hand with an ace like Ax spades it's really only showdown value because the SB does have some hands that contain a 10 or could be 10s full potentially or even just have a better ace. I hate to keep going ;but "I think" the likelihood of kings or queens in the SB 3 betting to 19BB is more likely the exact range I'd put Brewer on more than Rockets going that much preflop, I also know Addamo is way more skilled than myself and probably narrowed Brewer's range perfectly then used that to exploit the ace on the river. Sorry it's so long winded, kind of a complex hand.
Simpler way of looking at it, I win if the flush comes through.....I win if I can induce a fold....I'm only dead to boats and if he's on a bigger draw maybe I can convince him I have a ten. I lose for sure if I don't bet.......I think that is how simplistic Addamo broke it down to himself. I would of folded just like Brewer because after the river QQ is just a bluff catcher why waste 11 BB....
Wow I feel like it’s a how many flush draws vs how many tens does he have. And like coach said, he could have more airball-y bluffs like backdoor clubs. Idk it’s obviously probably close
I like your videos about bluffs because they come with a lot of theory bout blockers and range. But seriously, the bluff always passes. Can we see one sneaky fella getting cautch?
I find all in is usually weak, sure sometimes they are trying for Max value but almost every time i have made a "loose" call on an all in I've been right and they just hoped pure scare of the amount of chips/ money will scare you off your hand. One quick example was i know the guy had AK and i hit bottom pair, he bet flop i call, ck ck turn, then he all in bets river and without a second thought i just went with my read and he was like did you call yeah bro you have nothing lol.
This looks like an extremely tough spot, I doubt I can think what would I do without being extremely biased since I can see all cards... at the moment I am playing 2NL a ton (hahaha I am broke can't play any higher than that XD) and in that level this is a snap fold unless you can see in your HUD that the opponent is a maniac... however this is high stakes live MTT so... Call and rebuy if wrong? XD
Its still tough really. Brewers agianst one of adamos perfect bluff hands... While he does unblock the Qs... the Qs is one of the less frequently cards used in rivrr bluffs here. For Adamo the benefit 34s has over Qxdd Jxss and Kxss is two fold. Primarily- his opponents are more likely to hold bluffcatchers-which contain a big spade... Secondly, his opponents have 3 or 4 more FDs that missed and really dont qualify as bkuff catchers, namely K9 Q9 KJ and QJ spades. So if Adamo takes a different line, or gives up on river with his missed spades, then calling here could get pretty bad with QQ no spade. So his range will look like all those suited Tx hands and a few low spade bluff combinations 67ss. So I kinda still like brewers fold here because he should reasonably expect adamo to fold 34s some of the time.
I don't beat any of Addamo's value, and, even worse, that Ace means that a whole bunch of Addamo's bluffs on the flop and turn are now beating me for value. Fold.
I'm confused a bit. If I raise the button and small blind raises me and we see a flop. The small blinds leads out and if I have a 10 why would I raise? I only get AK to AQ and other hands to fold. Leaving over pairs calling my raise. But if I only call over pairs will continue to get into me. So if I was sitting with QQ I would simply check jam the turn and if you happen to have the 10 so be it.
@@losyart but you are holding the flush draw. So less likely they have that draw from small blind raise. You know the A2 AQ or AK of spade being only thing left. 5 is not a pair we have in SB. Again you confirmed what I said. Over pairs call nothing else really. Occasionally AK AQ but then they are done after the turn. So why raise when you can let the small blind continue with all bluffs and over pairs. I see all merits to raise or just call. Just pointing out a different thought. But thanks for the thought process you had.
Somewhat of an easy call (kind of). He re raised the flop, so in my eyes he’s ether on a drawl or trying to state he has a 10. But why re raise a 10 when he could somewhat slow play it? Unless he thought the guy with pockets had an AK/AQ of spade & was trying to push him off his pocket pair. Something about it didn’t make sense to me, but again im also new & working on trying to get better! Thanks for these videos & podcast, help tremendously!
Hey Jonathan.. I got qualified in a $150K main event online tourney tomorrow through a $4 buy-in and survived a 2 rounds of qualifying but I don't use a poker hud/software coz I don't know to use them for real. Just wanna ask what do you think the best strategy I need to do esp in playing this kind of big tourney? This is my very first online cash tournament thank you.. appreciate it!
In the real world I would have fold all river cards exept Q or 10 in this situation. So an easy snapfold. Against a GTO player who is perfectly balanced it does not matter. We do have a bluff catcher so I think its a EV neutral decision. If addamo over bluff most rivers are an easy call. An A river is a weird one.
Think it has to be a check shove on turn for brewer. If he has the 10, gg, can't put him on kk or aa, don't want to see the river really. Shoves turn, adamo folds.
Would fold, a lot of the hands Addamo could have been bluffing with now are value hands and losing to a lot of his value range I.e anything with a ten, pocket 5s, any Ax of spades etc. note this is against Addamo specifically who is very balanced
Would love to see your comments on this hand: ua-cam.com/video/PSt03nXEIJo/v-deo.html. Is Bill Klein bluffing on the river? Does he think he is possibly good? How does Addamo know to call with so many hands beating him?
my guess is this video doesn't get posted unless he calls; adamo always has those mountain chip stacks, it's not cause he just runs better than everybody else for that long in that many tourneys. it's since he gets these spots, takes them probably a lot more often than most, and gets frequent folds. i'm saying this right before he either folds or calls the river.
It's really just a matter of time. He's on a heater and it shows. We ALWAYS here of players every year just like this guy that's on the run of God. Eventually it fizzles out and the come back to earth again. I'm not saying he can't win consistently. I'm just saying he has a few brick walls laying in the weeds in his future. They all do!
Against Addamo you have to call, if you fold in this spot the money means too much to you, and you’re probably not properly rolled for the tournament. In my local home game, I’d fold.
I won my biggest tournament with three betting 43s on a flop of 654 and getting the bubble boy to fold an overpair. who knows. Later they all said my range included 87. Well it did.
Adamo's line makes no sense. What in position raises does he have facing a cbet, in a 3bet pot? and then follows it up with a turn bet and river jam. He can only have bottom set or a 10, even then those hand will just call flop and let Brewer bet into him on the turn.
I think they made a good play if the board and your hand matched the videos pretty closely.. IF you are known to be aggressive or have been playing aggressively. If you have a tighter image at the table I'd probably fold when the ace got there facing an All-In shove.
You hit the nail on the head with the Ace would look for value because you know SB doesn’t have an ace. Why would you shove even if you have a 10 this deep. The hand looks like what it is, but like someone in the comments said, it’s easier when you can see the cards face up. If the guy was a crazy aggressive player then I gotta call. But I am not remotely good enough to think this through the way JL does so I would have zero chance of ever going deep in one of these if I somehow won my seat for a fraction of the price.
I think Addamo is a great player..but to me he was really lucky here. REally lucky. First of all, 4+3 against QQ is a bad call, especially if you are raised 6times after you raise 3times. The fact that a flush draw appeared on the board really saved him..first luck. then, Brewer could have easily had AA in his range or AK..even spades. ...so he was banking on the fact that he doesn't have them but he could not know that for sure. Again, he lucked out..it seems genius now but if he lost this hand, one would easily say: he punted it away.
I would have pushed on the turn, would have played it very similar to Brewer, but after the check and then the raise from Addamo I would have shoved. Not because I can see both hole cards either 😂 But also that isn’t a winning play a majority of the time and also why I’m watching the tournament and not in it 🤣 I would definitely be afraid of A10 (maybe K10s-910s) on the flop because it’s very much in his range in this situation, but I feel I’d have more hands beat and would avoid most draws by the check re raise on the turn. And also, I would know Addamo knows I have a strong pair AA-JJ and would likely fold, hopefully or call 🤷♂️
shoving the turn is the worst possible thing you can do here. make actual decisions in poker. don't just shove because you're petrified of making decisions.
@@bonniedinkis In this specific situation, check raising the turn all in is not a bad idea because Addamos turn bet is setting up a river jam. Just calling the turn only leaves the other guy with a 2/3 pot bet on the river, so I don’t see anything wrong with getting in on the turn.
@@bonniedinkis definitely not the worst possible move, but I’m a full fledged amateur 🤷♂️ I’m just getting into the nitty grittiness of the game, I’m sure you know more than me. But I’m also sure you don’t play full time professionally, so, not to be rude, I take your “advice” lightly.
@@bonniedinkis and I wouldn’t shove after I checked the turn and was looking at a bet because I was scared of making decisions. I would push because I would feel like I’m ahead most times in that situation against aggressive players
How soon before Addamo fizzles out? Everyone is following what he's doing. It seems like poker is full of trends and you can only stay hot for so long. I noticed he totally skipped WSOP or he didn't win (unlikely).
Shamefully, I think I would have to fold now... it sucks but this level of aggression across 3 streets just sucks to face. The Ace on the end is just too much at this point. Any blank river I think I call it off.
I’m folding. I can only beat a bluff like the hand he has. My thought would be. He could have all those tens, maybe protecting 88 on flop with raise. Or he had AJ Spades. Ace Wheel Spades How many Junk type suited hands could he hold? I usually underestimate that, it just would appear to me he had it or spiked the Ace. Most likely I’d feel he’s going to show me a 10. Or pocket 8s that would be my honest read.
monsters in the closet syndrome , you consider all his value combinations but not his bluff combinations , you only need to be right a little over 1/3 of the time to make this a profitable call
I'd fold in that spot. It was played well by Adammo. He never show weakness at any point. You have to think the all-in shove isn't a bluff a good percentage of the time. He would bust me in a short time, that dude is playing on a whole 'notehr level.
@@davidn82 If you can't be honest with yourself about how you play how can you get better? We can see the hole cards. I wonder what people would say if they didn't know Adammos cards?
This is an easy fold. Qs didn't improve at all throughout the hand. Only got much worse with Ax on the river. Lots of semi blufs like Ax spades make it. Any Tx would have had the trips and be betting to block the spade draw. It's not all that hard to fold here.
Don't like the 6x raise pre-flop. It feels like you're begging for a fold playing a decent pair. That immediately rules out KK and AA, unless you're somehow balancing those. The line just screams JJ or QQ at the flop. The A on the river makes it so easy to bluff you almost have to call. Every now and then they'll have trips or an ace, but more often than not they'll realize you're going to have a hard time calling. Nobody likes busting early...
I would honestly call this....with only 111k left and the blinds at 500/1000/1000 You will have around 10BBs left. Your tournament life is close to over.
I’ll prolly call.. Adamo got bunch of bluff and athough he might have those Ax or 10x combo but the combo of spade draws are definitely off the chart! Oh shoot notice he has no Q of spade.. definitely a fold lol!
Brewers body language did not help him. Im sure he picked up on it. But making it 6x from the 3000 doesn' allow Brewer to see where hes at. If he made it 3 x and allowed Addamo to rebet he could put him on an Ace x hand. But he took that option away. Its probably easier to say shove on the turn and dont allow Addamo to catch another card that could put doubts in you head. If he has a drawing hand Brewers ahead here. Doesnt have a 10 if hes drawing.
By shoving turn yes u r right u get folds from all his potential draws which mostly has 18% to 24% but you will get called exclusively by better hands . By just calling u giving him green light to potentially bluff his missed draw on river and u making more money this way if u have guts to calldown. That A btw on river wasnt helpful to bluff catch either. Cause honestly i dont believe my Ace highs have showdown value at all to such massive 3bet from SB so i think ace high draws should be turned into a bluff as well i mean i would do it
![What To Do When You MISS The FLOP [Poker Strategy]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/CRKkf7Pug5k/mqdefault.jpg)
What would YOU do on the river with Q♣Q♦?
Your Stack (SB): 111,000
Their Stack (BTN): 296,500
Pot: 164,000
Board: T♣ T♠ 5♠ 8♦ A♥
BTN bets 296,500 (all-in)
A) Call
B) Fold
Hey Jonathan, don’t you think that Addamo could Raise A6, A7, A8, A9 suited. And then play exactly like the hand went. I think he could easily have an ace on the river and due to the 3bet sizing of brewer and the callings I think he is capped in JJ, QQ, KK, AA so he just could call with trapping aces and the other hands will need to fold on the river, due to the ace or trips. Let me know if something is off on my reasoning pls. Anyways very dizzy spot there.
I would fold, at least at the stakes I am playing, very few people are cabable of bluffing all the way. On the other hand, I might even get chips in the middle at the flop since at lower stakes many players overvalue their small pairs at paired boards, although maybe would not do that this deep. Ace at the river is perfect bluffing card but at microstakes people get scared to bluff when they see it... If I was against Addamo I would still probably be too scared to call, his line is screaming Tx to my microstakes wired instincts. Or then I'd just check-call every street hoping no A or K appears, giving him all the chances to be aggressive... and A at river would make me so annoyed. :D
@@edwardcarde7 This is where a reraise on the flop with boards like this are huge! You already have a great over pair, and unless your opponent has A-10, K-10, or J-10 (you block a lot of the Q-10 holdings), then the chance of him having a better hand is low. He only called Brewer's 3 bet preflop, and a lot of hands are available to play on the button especially when no one opened before him. Based on ranges, I'm banking on still having the better hand. If he DID flop trips, well then that's a cooler that's going to have to be paid off sometimes. I say having the better and because KK - AA are almost always 4 bet situations (although SOME slow play could be argued since he's on the button), but when you're deep stacked you want as much value as you can out of those hands.
I would probably fold the river because ace high flush draw got there too. Now I’m losing to any ace and any ten, not to mention a possible 55 for a flopped full house. Just a tough spot to call off your tournament on the river which is now just a marginal hand.
I would have been all-in on the turn. Trips are hard to hit and if he has a 10 then god bless him.
In the passive $50 tournaments I play with my buddies, this is a fold 100%. Against someone who is actually bluffing at a high frequency, I think it has to be a call. Easy to say when the cards are face up though...
Yea, this is a snap fold at the local .10/.20 home game.
No one cares how you would play this hand with your buddies.
Dear lord I can hardly believe 90% of people are ever calling this
Imagine being you.
When you aren't deep you mean...lol
i dont fear anyone. guys like chance cormuth, fedor holz, i feel like i am just as good if not better than them. i have some desire to improve but i don't believe in range advantage. blockers don't matter. and dont think min raising versus a 2.5 or 3x bb raise is + eV
Would love to see you analyze some hands against these aggressive players like Addamo or even Rampage where someone shows you the hand without telling you what they have and you have to analyze it live. Think it would be entertaining and maybe even more helpful
First comment. Nothing to say, just never caught a vid this early before. Great channel and info Jonathan. Keep it up =)
Love the Addamo videos!!!
just wanted to say thanks for consistently posting hand analysis for us
Never seen a tournament player as good as this beast. From another planet
finding equilibrium’s breakdown of this hand is SO MUCH better lol
Can you ask Alex Fitzgerald what he would do ? This level of aggressive behavior is in his wheel house.
I thought call, but only after listening to your notes on the hand. Definitely not good enough to think through hands this well on my own yet. The note on A-high flush draws checking back turn isn’t something I would’ve picked up on
I’m almost certain that Addamo was about certain that brewer was holding either QQ or KK on the river and also thought Brewer would not risk his tournament life calling with either of those hands. I wonder what he would have done had a small non spade hit the river? Also would Brewer have folded the river had the ace not been there? Great hand analysis.
He played QQ pretty weak though, and i don't agree a paired board against one player is usually good for an over pair, much rather 10 10 board than a board with k/a on it. He didn't raise the flop raise so he had no idea where he is, check turn, then just calls, checks again showing he doesn't have the A and is scared of it. Really couldn't have played a premium hand worse. I look at it like i rather lose with quality hands than loose a bunch of chips and fold too its like losing 3 times, chips, bad play, and looking like you can be bully off your hands.
@@Melcavic42 he played it fine. he's checking most rivers and inducing the bluff. The ace just put him in a bad spot.
Two thoughts: 1) I don’t think pros check raise post flop with a 10 very often. 2) Anybody notice Addamo takes a big gulp after the river A? That’s a tell he missed his draw. I’m snap calling in this spot.
But of course, I don’t play bigger than 2/5 cash games so what do I know. 🤷♂️
Yes! Glad you said it cause it was brutal and obvious he didn't like it and just said f it. Good catch
Brewer was even suffering in his avatar picture
The bass in your intro made my walls shake 👍🏼
I'd call with my bluff catcher. But then again I busted many tournaments in the first stages so I'm probably a call station.
A collection of hands from good players defending their big blind would be cool! 😎
One of the toughest situations in modern NLH tournaments is playing the Big Blind because of both extra ante money and the small first-in raises
And this spot very important
Do you have advice for this spot?
Yea onve you add in the Kx suited and Qx suited in the Addamo bluff range there is so many bluffs say at least 15 combinations considering the pot odds for this situation you don't really have to be right many times. If I am facing an opponent who can certainly have these bluff here QQ is a call. However I have to also remind myself in the lower stakes I play my opponents more often than not have a bluff here.
Against someone like Addamo it's usually a 50/50 bluff in these spots and considering it's basically a 4 to 1 you should call...but i'd probably coward out and fold :D
You would call if you are monkey tilting
Except you’re out of the tournament at that point
Addamo isn't bluffing 50/50 here😅 He is bluffing at approximately the frequency that makes you indifferent between calling and folding. Otherwise he would just always be called by everyone.
Given the action that came before the river, Addamo's range included a lot of hand that could have an ace. Even with the QQ blockers, AJ or better represents a massive number of hands when added to all the hands that could hold a T. I don't see any way you don't fold if you are Brewer.
Thanks for a great analysis, please, put more bluffing videos 👍
Yes please keep these coming.. quality videos!
Yes more bluff videos and analysis please JL.
I'd have to call.
Yeah vs such opponents like Addamo im way more likely to call than to some random player on micros which mostly arent capable of such bluffs . Answer is sometimes call sometimes fold mostly depending on gut feeling
I personally would like to see failed bluffs :) most of poker content YT is suggesting to me it's either a hero call that gets busted because opponent had nuts or sick bluffs that go through
i'd like to see more casual hands... with good folds from players and good bluff catches ;)
exactly
From a MDF perspective, we need to call about 60%.
Our assumed range at the River:
6x 99 6xJJ 4x KQss/KJss/QJss/98ss; 3x QQ with a Spade / 3x KK with a Spade =22 combos
3x QQ without a Spade
3xKK 3xAJss+ 3xA7ss+ = 9 combos
1xTT 3x88 3xAA 6xAT 8x T9s/JTs/QTs/KTs =21 combos
And, by pure magic: With this fairly aggressive range, consisting of 55 combos. QQ without Spade would indeed fit EXACTLY into our (33/55) crying-call range. ^^
You cannot use MDF like that. On some runouts that favors your range you would call a lot more than MDF and on some other runouts you would fold a lot more than MDF. But overall all flops/turns/rivers you would need to have MDF.
@@srki22 "Minimum Defense Frequency" obviously gives no information when you have a nutted range, or when your opponent is a maniacal fish, where you can call far more. - But, it can help to prevent otherwise profitable bluffs, when we lack further information. In our case: The QQ we hold should likely sit at the very bottom of our calling range, when we play a capable opponent who bluffs with nearly optimal frequency. While JJ may already be a tough laydown. If our opponent should bluff only rarely , either defined by board texture or player type, then we can certainly fold more frequently.
To summarize: QQ sounds for me quite like marking the sweet spot, where we should still strongly lean towards a call (also if we modify our River range) when we face a very aggressive opponent. But: It is still a very tough call to make. )
tough call. I think I would have called without the Ace hitting the river for sure. I think I still call based on the betting though.
You didn't really discuss Brewer's option to check-raise all-in on the turn. There are some upsides to it. It denies equity and avoids a scare card on the river inducing him into making an incorrect fold. Against Addamo's trip 10s your going broke either way. The only downside , which is significant, is it denies Brewer the option to bluff-catch the river.
Doesn’t Jonathon little hate all in ?
On the turn lots of Brewer's range wouldve called the all-in (JJ, QQ, KK, AA). Non spades over cards like AK AQ wouldve folded anyway to a 32k bet on the turn so X/R all-in would be a disaster against most of the range. You only really deny equity from flush draws which Addamo blocks.
Knowing that Addamo's a pro and pros usually don't overbet or chase someone off when they have trips (unless they feel that their opponent(s) has(have) an overpair), I would have actually reraised on the flop. Gives me some more information from the get go (if he goes over the top) or just win the pot outright then. If he shoves, I could fold earlier thus saving me more chips than how this progressed. Playing like Brewer did, I don't think he has a good spot to call here and must fold.
if you are not willing to make decisions and play check-call against players who are bluff happy, you are going to lose. this is a very simple thing.
@@bonniedinkis This "all-in with semi-strong hand against polarized range" thing is the absolute fishiest play there is and so many people just will not accept that it is bad
Great hand JL... If you are Brewer are you ever check raising the turn here... which I kinda like.
Thx for great videos
No u want the bluffs in not isolating yourself vs top of his range
I think if I took the time to think it through I could get it right and call because first and foremost Addamo's knowledge and skill ;but 2nd is a big one, position and stack size (3:1 on the river) and Addamo's knowledge of the power of these 2 things (his all in doesn't put him at risk of getting stacked, he can lose and have almost 20 blinds left.).
3rd would be the missed flush draw and the absolute perfect bluffing card (seen missed flush draws river jam so many times, I call it the "no other way to win the hand river jam").
Also the all in to me doesn't make a lot of sense to me, if he really did have say a hand with an ace like Ax spades it's really only showdown value because the SB does have some hands that contain a 10 or could be 10s full potentially or even just have a better ace. I hate to keep going ;but "I think" the likelihood of kings or queens in the SB 3 betting to 19BB is more likely the exact range I'd put Brewer on more than Rockets going that much preflop, I also know Addamo is way more skilled than myself and probably narrowed Brewer's range perfectly then used that to exploit the ace on the river. Sorry it's so long winded, kind of a complex hand.
Simpler way of looking at it, I win if the flush comes through.....I win if I can induce a fold....I'm only dead to boats and if he's on a bigger draw maybe I can convince him I have a ten. I lose for sure if I don't bet.......I think that is how simplistic Addamo broke it down to himself. I would of folded just like Brewer because after the river QQ is just a bluff catcher why waste 11 BB....
@@ianburns1175 A lot of ways of analyzing it based on our individual accumulated experience at the table playing hands.
Wow I feel like it’s a how many flush draws vs how many tens does he have. And like coach said, he could have more airball-y bluffs like backdoor clubs. Idk it’s obviously probably close
I like your videos about bluffs because they come with a lot of theory bout blockers and range. But seriously, the bluff always passes. Can we see one sneaky fella getting cautch?
I find all in is usually weak, sure sometimes they are trying for Max value but almost every time i have made a "loose" call on an all in I've been right and they just hoped pure scare of the amount of chips/ money will scare you off your hand. One quick example was i know the guy had AK and i hit bottom pair, he bet flop i call, ck ck turn, then he all in bets river and without a second thought i just went with my read and he was like did you call yeah bro you have nothing lol.
I enjoy your videos.
This looks like an extremely tough spot, I doubt I can think what would I do without being extremely biased since I can see all cards... at the moment I am playing 2NL a ton (hahaha I am broke can't play any higher than that XD) and in that level this is a snap fold unless you can see in your HUD that the opponent is a maniac... however this is high stakes live MTT so... Call and rebuy if wrong? XD
Clearly my favorite player ever
Its still tough really.
Brewers agianst one of adamos perfect bluff hands...
While he does unblock the Qs... the Qs is one of the less frequently cards used in rivrr bluffs here.
For Adamo the benefit 34s has over Qxdd Jxss and Kxss is two fold.
Primarily- his opponents are more likely to hold bluffcatchers-which contain a big spade...
Secondly, his opponents have 3 or 4 more FDs that missed and really dont qualify as bkuff catchers, namely K9 Q9 KJ and QJ spades.
So if Adamo takes a different line, or gives up on river with his missed spades, then calling here could get pretty bad with QQ no spade.
So his range will look like all those suited Tx hands and a few low spade bluff combinations
67ss.
So I kinda still like brewers fold here because he should reasonably expect adamo to fold 34s some of the time.
Ax suited makes a ton of sense to have. That's a fold.
I don't beat any of Addamo's value, and, even worse, that Ace means that a whole bunch of Addamo's bluffs on the flop and turn are now beating me for value. Fold.
interesting hand, well chosen.
I just don’t know if brewer is counting hands like 4s3s in Adomo’s range. I can totally be wrong, obviously he plays these hands
What do you think about making river bluffs look like thin value?
I'm confused a bit. If I raise the button and small blind raises me and we see a flop. The small blinds leads out and if I have a 10 why would I raise? I only get AK to AQ and other hands to fold. Leaving over pairs calling my raise. But if I only call over pairs will continue to get into me. So if I was sitting with QQ I would simply check jam the turn and if you happen to have the 10 so be it.
Lol such a fishy thinking.
@@losyart I said confused. So enlighten me. What does a raise do on this flop if you hold a 10. What are specificly targeting for value. ?
@@adambacome2687 All flush draws all pairs even AQ and AK might call once especially with one spade
@@losyart but you are holding the flush draw. So less likely they have that draw from small blind raise. You know the A2 AQ or AK of spade being only thing left. 5 is not a pair we have in SB. Again you confirmed what I said. Over pairs call nothing else really. Occasionally AK AQ but then they are done after the turn. So why raise when you can let the small blind continue with all bluffs and over pairs. I see all merits to raise or just call. Just pointing out a different thought. But thanks for the thought process you had.
Enjoyed the video 👍👍👍
Would like to see more of them 😁
*He-haw* ...Err..."I mean Call!"
Somewhat of an easy call (kind of). He re raised the flop, so in my eyes he’s ether on a drawl or trying to state he has a 10. But why re raise a 10 when he could somewhat slow play it? Unless he thought the guy with pockets had an AK/AQ of spade & was trying to push him off his pocket pair. Something about it didn’t make sense to me, but again im also new & working on trying to get better! Thanks for these videos & podcast, help tremendously!
More crazy bluffs please!
The Ace is a good bluff card. I think that you would go in.
He'd make a great addition to pokercoahing!
Addamo always looks like he's taking a nap on the toilet whenever it's not his turn to act
No clue it really depends on my mindset
Hey Jonathan.. I got qualified in a $150K main event online tourney tomorrow through a $4 buy-in and survived a 2 rounds of qualifying but I don't use a poker hud/software coz I don't know to use them for real. Just wanna ask what do you think the best strategy I need to do esp in playing this kind of big tourney? This is my very first online cash tournament thank you.. appreciate it!
In the real world I would have fold all river cards exept Q or 10 in this situation. So an easy snapfold. Against a GTO player who is perfectly balanced it does not matter. We do have a bluff catcher so I think its a EV neutral decision. If addamo over bluff most rivers are an easy call. An A river is a weird one.
Think it has to be a check shove on turn for brewer. If he has the 10, gg, can't put him on kk or aa, don't want to see the river really. Shoves turn, adamo folds.
more addamo pls
Would fold, a lot of the hands Addamo could have been bluffing with now are value hands and losing to a lot of his value range I.e anything with a ten, pocket 5s, any Ax of spades etc. note this is against Addamo specifically who is very balanced
Would love to see your comments on this hand: ua-cam.com/video/PSt03nXEIJo/v-deo.html.
Is Bill Klein bluffing on the river? Does he think he is possibly good? How does Addamo know to call with so many hands beating him?
my guess is this video doesn't get posted unless he calls; adamo always has those mountain chip stacks, it's not cause he just runs better than everybody else for that long in that many tourneys. it's since he gets these spots, takes them probably a lot more often than most, and gets frequent folds. i'm saying this right before he either folds or calls the river.
oh i was wrong, crazy.
It's really just a matter of time. He's on a heater and it shows. We ALWAYS here of players every year just like this guy that's on the run of God. Eventually it fizzles out and the come back to earth again. I'm not saying he can't win consistently. I'm just saying he has a few brick walls laying in the weeds in his future. They all do!
Very hard spot to be in
Against Addamo you have to call, if you fold in this spot the money means too much to you, and you’re probably not properly rolled for the tournament. In my local home game, I’d fold.
The name Erik seidel should strike fear. He is the ultimate poker player imo.
Early in a tournament I would fold. Can we get some of these videos where we DON'T get to see the hole cards.
I'd personally probably fold, Addamo can have a ton of 10 x in this scenario or even a suited ace.
I would have gone all in on the turn!!!
this format would be so much better if you blacked out Addamos holding
If I'm playing this in training I call without a ♠. At the table ... no idea.
I won my biggest tournament with three betting 43s on a flop of 654 and getting the bubble boy to fold an overpair. who knows. Later they all said my range included 87. Well it did.
kewl story
Adamo's line makes no sense. What in position raises does he have facing a cbet, in a 3bet pot? and then follows it up with a turn bet and river jam. He can only have bottom set or a 10, even then those hand will just call flop and let Brewer bet into him on the turn.
sick hand
Awesome! I made an eerily similar bluff the other weekend and QQ called m😂
I think they made a good play if the board and your hand matched the videos pretty closely.. IF you are known to be aggressive or have been playing aggressively. If you have a tighter image at the table I'd probably fold when the ace got there facing an All-In shove.
@@jmanpolo5611 yea it was extremely similar to this spot. They made a good call because I'm aggressive.
You hit the nail on the head with the Ace would look for value because you know SB doesn’t have an ace. Why would you shove even if you have a 10 this deep. The hand looks like what it is, but like someone in the comments said, it’s easier when you can see the cards face up. If the guy was a crazy aggressive player then I gotta call. But I am not remotely good enough to think this through the way JL does so I would have zero chance of ever going deep in one of these if I somehow won my seat for a fraction of the price.
I think Addamo is a great player..but to me he was really lucky here. REally lucky. First of all, 4+3 against QQ is a bad call, especially if you are raised 6times after you raise 3times. The fact that a flush draw appeared on the board really saved him..first luck. then, Brewer could have easily had AA in his range or AK..even spades. ...so he was banking on the fact that he doesn't have them but he could not know that for sure. Again, he lucked out..it seems genius now but if he lost this hand, one would easily say: he punted it away.
Call it off
I would have pushed on the turn, would have played it very similar to Brewer, but after the check and then the raise from Addamo I would have shoved. Not because I can see both hole cards either 😂 But also that isn’t a winning play a majority of the time and also why I’m watching the tournament and not in it 🤣 I would definitely be afraid of A10 (maybe K10s-910s) on the flop because it’s very much in his range in this situation, but I feel I’d have more hands beat and would avoid most draws by the check re raise on the turn. And also, I would know Addamo knows I have a strong pair AA-JJ and would likely fold, hopefully or call 🤷♂️
shoving the turn is the worst possible thing you can do here. make actual decisions in poker. don't just shove because you're petrified of making decisions.
@@bonniedinkis In this specific situation, check raising the turn all in is not a bad idea because Addamos turn bet is setting up a river jam. Just calling the turn only leaves the other guy with a 2/3 pot bet on the river, so I don’t see anything wrong with getting in on the turn.
@@bonniedinkis definitely not the worst possible move, but I’m a full fledged amateur 🤷♂️ I’m just getting into the nitty grittiness of the game, I’m sure you know more than me. But I’m also sure you don’t play full time professionally, so, not to be rude, I take your “advice” lightly.
@@bonniedinkis and I wouldn’t shove after I checked the turn and was looking at a bet because I was scared of making decisions. I would push because I would feel like I’m ahead most times in that situation against aggressive players
@@jolaz69 pretty close to my thought process as well, I’m very early in my journey though!
Brewer doesn't need to worry about the ace based on the logic Addamo* wouldn't raise the nut flush draw on turn.
He didn't raise the turn
That was way above my pay grade
How soon before Addamo fizzles out? Everyone is following what he's doing. It seems like poker is full of trends and you can only stay hot for so long. I noticed he totally skipped WSOP or he didn't win (unlikely).
Shamefully, I think I would have to fold now... it sucks but this level of aggression across 3 streets just sucks to face. The Ace on the end is just too much at this point. Any blank river I think I call it off.
I’m folding. I can only beat a bluff like the hand he has. My thought would be.
He could have all those tens, maybe protecting 88 on flop with raise. Or he had AJ Spades. Ace Wheel Spades
How many Junk type suited hands could he hold? I usually underestimate that, it just would appear to me he had it or spiked the Ace. Most likely I’d feel he’s going to show me a 10. Or pocket 8s that would be my honest read.
monsters in the closet syndrome , you consider all his value combinations but not his bluff combinations , you only need to be right a little over 1/3 of the time to make this a profitable call
@@tonyrizzo4815 🧟
I would’ve jammed my chips in after the turn
I'd fold in that spot. It was played well by Adammo. He never show weakness at any point. You have to think the all-in shove isn't a bluff a good percentage of the time. He would bust me in a short time, that dude is playing on a whole 'notehr level.
All these people saying they might call are liars
@@davidn82 If you can't be honest with yourself about how you play how can you get better? We can see the hole cards. I wonder what people would say if they didn't know Adammos cards?
I’m not folding in that spot if I’m wrong you win good hand sir but I won’t fold
This is an easy fold. Qs didn't improve at all throughout the hand. Only got much worse with Ax on the river. Lots of semi blufs like Ax spades make it. Any Tx would have had the trips and be betting to block the spade draw. It's not all that hard to fold here.
Was it ever confirmed that Chris Brewer was using RTA on GG?
Call
Call if vs an insanely aggressive player, your range is winning most of the time.
I would shove turn, he’s just letting straight and flush draws get there
Hard not to fold in this position
Don't like the 6x raise pre-flop. It feels like you're begging for a fold playing a decent pair. That immediately rules out KK and AA, unless you're somehow balancing those.
The line just screams JJ or QQ at the flop. The A on the river makes it so easy to bluff you almost have to call. Every now and then they'll have trips or an ace, but more often than not they'll realize you're going to have a hard time calling. Nobody likes busting early...
9 times out of 10 I'm folding but if I get a live tell I will follow my gut and call for better or worse
What u would do depends on his body language. Id probably fold. Idk. If hes really bluffy maybe not
Sun runner. Like Wesley. Variance will catch up.
I would honestly call this....with only 111k left and the blinds at 500/1000/1000 You will have around 10BBs left. Your tournament life is close to over.
111k is 111BB!
I’ll prolly call.. Adamo got bunch of bluff and athough he might have those Ax or 10x combo but the combo of spade draws are definitely off the chart! Oh shoot notice he has no Q of spade.. definitely a fold lol!
I’d puke 🤢🤮 and fold that river… SICK!!!
Brewers body language did not help him. Im sure he picked up on it. But making it 6x from the 3000 doesn' allow Brewer to see where hes at. If he made it 3 x and allowed Addamo to rebet he could put him on an Ace x hand. But he took that option away. Its probably easier to say shove on the turn and dont allow Addamo to catch another card that could put doubts in you head. If he has a drawing hand Brewers ahead here. Doesnt have a 10 if hes drawing.
By shoving turn yes u r right u get folds from all his potential draws which mostly has 18% to 24% but you will get called exclusively by better hands . By just calling u giving him green light to potentially bluff his missed draw on river and u making more money this way if u have guts to calldown. That A btw on river wasnt helpful to bluff catch either. Cause honestly i dont believe my Ace highs have showdown value at all to such massive 3bet from SB so i think ace high draws should be turned into a bluff as well i mean i would do it
im calling him cause if he has a ace high flush he woulda checked the river