MOLDOVA | Time to Retake Transnistria?
Вставка
- Опубліковано 12 тра 2024
- In March 2024, Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova under Russia’s influence for over 30 years, appealed to Moscow for help, fearing Moldovan attempts to regain control. While Russia has warned that any use of force would be seen as an attack against the Russian Federation, some nevertheless believe that the war in Ukraine has provided Moldova with a prime opportunity to reassert sovereignty over Transnistria. But could Moldova really be planning to retake Transnistria by force?
The Republic of Moldova, once known as Bessarabia, is a landlocked nation bordered by Ukraine and Romania. Emerging from the former Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic after the end of the Cold War, it is predominantly Romanian-speaking. However, at the same time, Transnistria declared independence in 1990 as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). This led to a short conflict followed by a ceasefire and Russian military presence. Despite international efforts, the conflict remains unresolved due to political and economic interests, including Russia's desire to maintain regional influence. However, Moldova's recent EU candidacy and the shift in military dynamics in Ukraine have shifted the focus to Moldova's potential to retake Transnistria. But is this likely?
MY NEW BOOK!
Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know
Oxford University Press global.oup.com/academic/produ...
Amazon amzn.to/2MPY3W2
Audiobooks.com www.audiobooks.co.uk/audioboo...
SUPPORT THE CHANNEL
Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at International Relations, conflict, security, and statehood. If you like what you see, please subscribe. Even better, perhaps consider becoming a Channel Member or supporting the Channel through Patreon. Thank you!
SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE
ua-cam.com/users/JamesKerLind...
BECOME A CHANNEL MEMBER
/ jameskerlindsay
JOIN MY PATREON PAGE
/ jameskerlindsay
VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:42 Reasserting Sovereignty over De Facto States
03:04 A Short History of Moldova
04:26 Moldova and the Emergence of the Transnistrian Issue
05:56 Efforts to Resolve the Transnistria Issue
06:55 Moldova, Transnistria and the Ukraine War
08:21 Is Moldova Plannign to Retake Transnistria?
10:08 Could Moldova Invade Transnistria?
11:47 Political Arguments Against Military Action
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Moldova | Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
mfa.gov.md/en
Moldova | National Army UA-cam
/ mdnationalarmy
Russia | Ministry of Foreign Affairsmid.ru/en/
OSCE Mission to Moldova | Transdniestrian Conflict Resolution
www.osce.org/mission-to-moldo...
Moldavian SSR | 1989 Language Lawcis-legislation.com/document....
EQUIPMENT USED TO MAKE THIS VIDEO
kit.co/JamesKerLindsay
MAP CONTENT
www.themaparchive.com
DISCLAIMERS
- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
- Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel and will be at no additional cost to you.
#Moldova #Transnistria #Russia
There has been growing discussion in the news about Moldova and Transnistria. But while it would seem that a military solution is not on the cards, do you see an opportunity for a peaceful settlement? And how would it play out? Or is recent speculation driven by Russia to justify some action against Moldova? Perhaps it is designed to lay the groundwork for annexing Transnistria? So, what do you think is going on? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
اين ترجمة عربية
Putin did not even recognise Moldova voting for Transnistria independence. I guess you should start with that. Moldova has the same exact problem as Ukraine, you have few nations , biggest poverty together with Ukraine and people who remember Soviet Union when it was better. Half of Moldavians wants Romania to annex them and most of Transnistrians want Russia because they have Soviet culture. Btw people in Transnistria are the nicest people you’ll ever meet.
Can both options be true at the same time? Russia always has a plan it’s working on but if Moldova stays on its current path I do think a peaceful solution is possible in time. They just need patience.
Clearly any kind of re-incorporation of Transnistria back into Moldova needs to be accompanied by resettlement of its pro-Russian population. They could be offered safety passage back to Russia. Experience in Ukraine shows that non-native Russia settlers are a threat to territorial integrity of neighboring countries..
After the war in the 90s relationships between Moldova and Transnistria were not a significant issue. The only reason Transnistria may become a focal point is the conflict between the west and Russia. Internally there is a division in both Moldova and Transnistria, as a significant part of their ethnically diverse populations is pro-Russian or pro-peace, they don't want to get involved. But NATO and EU may use Moldova and Transnistria to try to score a win against Russia. They can use their NGOs, money and pro-western and western-educated elites in Moldova. The best for Moldova and Transnistria will be if the conflict between the west and Russia is not expanded and kept within Ukraine.
Transnistria is more of a headache for Ukraine than it is for Moldova at the moment. Ukrainian politicians have suggested several times that they could retake Transnistria for Moldova, but apparently this isn't what Moldova wants. As you're saying, having to integrate a potentially hostile pro-Russian population does not seem to be in the current government's interest.
Thanks. Exactly. And one can see why this wouldn't be in Ukraine's interest either. It is far better to have a pro-EU Moldova on its southwestern border than to step in to "solve" Transnistria, only to find that this opens the way for Moldova to become pro-Russian. This would explain why Ukraine has avoided attacking Transnistria. Also, while the Russian garrison is small, many Transnistrians would probably take up arms to fight off a Ukranian attack. This could make the conflict far bloodier than it might seem at first. Better not to take the risk unless absolutely necessary.
@@JamesKerLindsay no, do not compare your brits fighting off the Americans.
What are you even talking about?
@@JamesKerLindsay Technically Moldova/Ukraine could place the area under military occupation. Much as the Southern USA was during Reconstruction. This would solve the problem of ending the Russian threat, without the problems of political integration. Of course, this wouldn't be conducive to a peaceful co-existence between Transnistrians and Moldovans, and has the risks associated with the relationship between Israel and Palestine.
(Of course, Moldova and Ukraine would have to successfully gain control of the area in the first place, which is not a given, considering how condensed and comparatively urbanised Transnistria is.)
@@JamesKerLindsaythis is false in the same way Crimea and Donbas is false. A large part of the reason they are pro- Russian is because they are occupied by Russian troops. Crimea wasn't pro Russian until the little green men appeared. You take the Russian military out of transnistria and it is just a bunch of old people who want to live peaceful lives.
The Moldovans will not try anything militarily. For multiple reasons. Those that you mentioned, but also the fact that they don't know how the war in Ukraine will end. The Russians might get Odessa in the future and thus get to Moldova too. Also, the population in Transnistria, although only 28% ethnically Russian, is deeply committed to Russia. They might not be Russians, but they do identify with the Russian cultural and social space. If Transnistria would get integrated into Moldova, that would change the electoral space there. Now the pro-European camp barely manages to get over 50%. Add Transnistria to it and I don't know if you will ever get again a pro-European majority. And I don't think that pro-European people from proper Moldova would be too happy about this.
Thanks so much. I completely agree. I did try to highlight that, as paradoxical as it might seem, incorporating Transnistria could actually be the best outcome for Moscow, at least in the short term. I didn’t really touch on the Ukraine angle. But this is of course vital. If Russia loses, then I think we will see a very different picture emerge.
@@JamesKerLindsay If Russia loses... OMG you people are going to kill us all.... you really dont get it...
@@JamesKerLindsayif necessary Kyiv has offered to take care of Transnistria militarily should they be asked. I imagine Ukraine feels threatened (stick) by the smallish Russian garrison and the less small PMR forces coupled with the potential prize (carrot) of the munitions in the extensive Cobasna ammo-dump. One would imagine thanks to the current pressing shortage (thx to internal US politics & the usual European arsing around) that temptation is not far away for long. However whether or not the materiel remaining in Cobasna is in usable condition and can a SpecOps strike take it intact (boobytrapped) may be a/the key point.
28% of Russians and 23% of Ukraina People from the current population in Transnistria of 450,000 I believe, added to 2,6m of current residents in MD will make the number of Russians + Ukro to barely 5% total exRSSM population, so the pro-Europeanness will hardly be affected. M. Sandu will not win next elections. There might well be won by Dodon.
Yep Democracy actually hurts us in this case. The government could technically due an economic embargo and Transnistria would collapse within a month ( there are a lot of dumb benefits that are finally being rolled back made by corrupt Moldovan politicians in the 90's that helped Transnistria as well) But like you mentioned the voters there would always vote pro-Russian if they came over thus preventing the state from ever truly solving the problem in short time
I'm still baffled by how 1,500 Russian troops in Transnistria get supplied given that they border the Ukraine on one side and Moldova on the other, there's no obvious route in, as it must involve Russian supplies crossing one of those two countries. Was there some deal in the 1990s peace deal that allows the Russian military safe passage that both Moldova and the Ukraine still follow?
This is a brilliant point. I have always wondered about this as well. Now that the border with Ukraine is closed, one can only assume that the garrison is effectively trapped unless Russia has a standing agreement with Moldova to allow its citizens to enter or has found another way to infiltrate them. But I can't imagine that they can bring in any weapons. It would be interesting to hear from anyone who can answer this.
@@JamesKerLindsayI think what is left of the 14th Guards (about 1,500) are by now mainly Transnistrians in Russian Uniforms so the issue of transit through Chisinău airport is mute.
@@JamesKerLindsayIt’s also worth noting that the only paths between Transnistria and Russia that don’t cross Ukrainian territory must cross NATO territory.
@@cdhblackwell The rank and file are mostly locals I believe. IIRC The Russians used to rotate officers and technical specialists using commercial flights but the Moldovans shut that down.
On paper, one of the reasons the Russian troops are there is to maintain and guard massive Soviet era ammo dumps that were left in place so they can draw on that, at least until it passes its best by dates.
@@cm275they could live of it for decades that ammo dump can fund whole of Moldova. It was one if reason transtrions won at first place even after being outnumbered they had better equipment
I have no doubt that Russia will defend Transnistria just like they defended Armenia.
I wonder why Russia abandoned Armenia too it's fate 🤔.
When you think about it, why should Russia maintain an Armenian break away region when the actual Armenian government couldn't be bothered and had in reality already written the breakaway regions.
Armenia has set it's face to the west, NATO and the EU, for Russia the choice is simple, Azerbaijan will make a more reliable security partner
@@mythbuster6126 Yes, they defended Germany by ripping the bandaid of oil reliance on Russia off. It had to happen or else Germany compromises EU security interests.
It’s almost like Armenia was pro western and Transnistria isn’t
@@Doosteroni a deal is a deal
unless putin's involved. then it's a guaranteed backstab.
I think they are different situations. Transnistrians are Russians and speak Russian, for instance, while Armenians are a completely different culture. Furthermore, Russia and Azerbaijan enjoy very good relations which isn't the same case with Russia and Moldova. Finally, Azerbaijan has taken much more concrete steps to modernize its military while Moldova hasn't.
I feel that Transnistria is one of those cases where there's a deep disconnect between outsiders looking in and the people living there day-to-day. For me, it's obvious that Transnistria should reintegrate to Moldova. Imagine all the benefits which would come with moving Westward politically! And how can they believe their tiny sliver of land will ever prosper as it is? Yet clearly they don't feel that way, and that ethnic and cultural ties, as well as history, has shaped a radically different outlook to this question. Our imagined worlds are often much more important than the real world.
Thanks so much Emma. Brilliant point. You are absolutely right. This is why I always tell my students that one of the most important lessons in policy analysis is to understand that what people perceive to be real is real in its consequences. It’s not what we understand to be the objective truth that matters in a situation, it’s what the parties to a situation believe to be the reality that will shape their actions. It is a vital lesson. We might all know that EU membership would be to their benefit, but if they see it as alien and hostile and believe that Russia is still their best option they will resist a deal.
@EmmaMaySeven Transdnistria has done pretty well as being a 'grey area' between Europe and the Ukraine/Russia.
@@JamesKerLindsayMaybe the fact that ''Moldavia'' is always mentioned in the context of strippers and prostitutes within EU countries, until the Russo-Ukrainian war, play some reason for having second thoughts about the benefits of being a fourth gear EU country. A membership in the EU as it was meant to be yes, could be very beneficial. This EU, which is basically a nest of neo-liberal (and now neo-con) vampires, has nothing of substance to offer. Even to a Borat-land.
It's completely irrational, but a lot of people are irrational. People's emotions cloud their judgement. I believe it's that simple if you drill right down.
Yep I mean they trade more with the EU than Russia. The Pro-Russia mentality is due too Soviet brainwashing. Remember Transnistria was mostly part of Ukraine but was made an autonomous region in Moldova when the Soviet stole Moldova from Romania as a means too try and prevent a reunion (which is inevitable at some point) Transitria only survives cause of basically free Russian gas. Average Moldovan doesn't really even care about Transnistria
Excited about you covering this topic. I visited Tiraspol in 2019 and after the invasion I've often thought it's been overlooked as a complicating factor.
Thanks so much. I'd be keen to hear what you think is really going on. It really doesn't make a lot of sense. While Moldova is being more assertive, there seems little likelihood that Moldova is eyeing up military action. Do you see peaceful reunification? Or do you think that maybe Moldova is planning on doing something, depending on how the war in Ukraine develops?
Even though Moldova is not in nato yet they have been receiving training and military aid from nato and the United States but a peaceful reunion would probably be best solution for now !
@@JamesKerLindsay yes reunification like Taiwan separatist with China.Why Taiwan separatis are so special and International Low doe't aplaid for them.What is diference ?
@@spotez9547 Taiwan existed before China.
That's the difference
@@JamesKerLindsay Reunification of a Stalin's present at thé Price of a War ? Insane and ridiculous. Never had Transnistria bé part of thé historical principality of Moldova and Tiraspol was built in 1792 by général Suvorov. Transnistria will bé back to mother Russia. Wisdom on behalf of Moldova would bé to accept it for thé good of all.
there is no need for military, when Transnistria is totally dependent on Moldova. they can just be squeezed to merge back
Does Modolva have the military capability to actually take the region by force?
Thanks. That's the key point of the video. It doesn't. This is the curious thing about the situation. Why did Russia issue a warning over something that will almost certainly not happen? Two years ago, it would have looked like it was preparing the ground to justify an invasion. But it can't do that anymore. But the interesting thing is that Russia might be better off having Transnistria back in Moldova.
@@JamesKerLindsay People in Transnistria wants to join Russia and they actually asked so recently and around 220K Russian speaking people live there. But Russia is not considering officially in any terms for now. When Moldova starts to suppress these people, the conflict will break out for sure and nothing can be done to stop Russia from taking it (
Sources: Politico, CNN, bloomberg )
I would advise to watch Jacques baud analysis on Former US colonel davis channel to see through the history of Ukraine conflict. Also, please both of them served in NATO and not Putin propagandists. Especially, Davies who somewhat still believes Russia is ***t and 3 days kiev story still. You won't be disappointed
Here is the link: ua-cam.com/video/qlQVnTsUQtk/v-deo.html
@@JamesKerLindsay the warning by Moscow was to tell their brothers in Transnistria ,by reassuring them" don`t worry guy`s, we have your back" so, not to follow Armenia a traditional ally of Russia, down the western road (EU and/or Nato)
In 1992 the Moldovan military had three full motor-rifle brigades, an artillery of brigade and other support units along with a functioning and combat capable air force and yet they were unable to restore control over the russian held area of their Country.
Now the Moldovians due to the mess their country is in have three badly undermanned brigades, a unit of artillery (I don't believe they have enough functioning artillery for a brigade anymore), no air force, etc. What was in the early 1990s was a standard through small military is now left with poorly maintained junk; It's like they are struck in the 80s as shown in the video. They have officially increased the military budget and updating but the new equipment they have gotten are so limited in quantity that it's basically meaningless, along with a refusal to increase military numbers for their country. So Moldova right now has no chance of freeing their whole country.
The russian puppets also have an old equipped military, suffer from spare manpower, however their military size is around the same as Moldova, they sit on soviet occupation era stockpiles, and unlike Moldova they do have tanks.
Until Moldova develops a military that is better than their historical equivalent in 1992 (Which is basically impossible due to the high costs of some stuff like Fighter Jets and Moldavian corruption), and has ways to deal with the russian population post-victory, Moldova is sadly in no State to kick out the colonisers.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm Romanian and I see this topic often here, "what would/should do Romania if Russian troops reached Transnistria and war broke out". And the general consensus seem to be that Romania would most certainly intervene militarily to help the Romanian brothers. One way or the other. Any politician who would try to say otherwise would have to flee the country, probably. :)
And Romania HAS an army of 80.000 and can easily mobilize another 4,5 million soldiers. A NATO standard army.
As you know, "Moldova" means today two things: a country AND a region of Romania. Basically, the old Romanian region "Moldova" was split in two, Russia managing to capture only half of it. The other half remained in Romania. Later, during the 1960s if I remember correctly, some parts from the occupied half were incorporated in Ukraine and they are now part of the independent Ukraine. So, you see, when I say "brothers", this term can be taken literally in so many cases.
On the other hand, most people say that the Russians from Transnistria (30% of the population who lives there) are not that bad, most of them are good people, they definitely don't want war, they don't want Putin or Russia, so a peaceful solution is clearly possible.
Love this channel and its unequivocal professionalism. May peace come to Europe! And may democracy rein!
Thank you so much. Let's hope!
Democracy 😂😂😂
Error in the video 82% are romanians and moldovans (not 75%), with 75% moldovans and 7% romanians, they are technically the same nation and ethnic group named differently.
Yes and no. One would suspect that there's a political point being made here. While most Moldovans may see themselves as Romanians, there may well be many who reject this for whatever reason, even if they speak Romanian. Identity can be a strange thing in these situations. Also, some may be of mixed marriages and prefer to identify as Moldovans in a civic sense rather than opting for an ethnic identification.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm sorry to say, you didn't get the meaning of the word "Moldovan". There are millions of Moldovans also in Romania and all of them call themselves Romanians. To be Moldovan means to be a Romanian from the province called Moldova, just as to be Transylvanian means to be a Romanian from the province called Transylvania. So "Moldovan" means "Romanian from Moldova", where "Moldova" can mean the country Moldova or the province of Moldova, which remained in Romania after the war against Russia.
"Moldovan" is like you would say, for instance, in Italy: Milanese, Lombard, Florentine, Genovese or Napoletano - all these are Italians.
So Moldovan and Romanian are synonyms, if you want.
did you see 2014 calculation of population data?
2% russians and 3 % of Ukro left in MD. so MD people are more than 90% right now.
@@Cosimoro72 foarte corect 👋 ♥ romania 🇲🇩. Sunt rusi in Moldova dar noi suntem dacii liberi si vorbim romaneste limba noastra daco romana. Salutari din Romania 🇷🇴 de la o fata din Jiu jianca.
@CosimoRomania this is about romanian moldavians who live in the historical region of Moldova (Iași, Botoșani, Bacău etc) .
As a moldavian from the republic of Moldova (Basarabia) i call myself moldovean , after that i call myself romanian as well , the bigger picture ,but first I'm moldovean . Just like Scottish and welsh in UK , they are not english but british in the end . This is how is see it , romanian is the larger identity , but ardelean, munteam, moldovean etc are coming first .
No thank you, that would be a poor decision. Transnistria has only been a plague for Moldova post-USSR. A new Kaliningrad is a no-no so there remain two scenarios: either an independent Transnistria or its dismantling along ethnic lines, aka the regions in the North which are more Romanian/Moldovan left to Moldova, the regions in the South which are more Ukrainian/Russian given to Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian territories which are majority Romanian/Moldovan. That way Moldova can unite with Romania and get in the EU, because the EU "admission" is a trick, the EU won't receive any new members for a long time, Ukraine and Moldova have been conned and I think by now they've figured it out that they're meant to be buffer states until relations with Russia cool off.
Да мы это уже видели во время СССР "по этническому признаку" сам СССР высялили ночью сотни тысяч человек и заселяли "русскими специалистами" а спустя 100 лет а давайте делить по этническому признаку, посмотрите на карту Молдовы до вхождения в колхоз СССР и что осталось при выходе из СССР, потом сама Россия изобретатель Преднистрофию и Автономного Гагаузери, и я не удивлюсь если не найдут дипломатических консенсуса могут и Оргеевскую Народную Республику -Шора изобретать
@@sergiubargan2970Daca ai putea sa te exprimi macar in acelasi alfabet, as aprecia, dupa nume esti moldovean.
@@MMerlyn91 Eu sunt romăn -moldovean
@@sergiubargan2970 Ma bucur ca te consideri roman, am scris "moldovean" tocmai ca sa nu te simti jignit in caz ca identitatea de roman nu e ceva ce iti place. Nu am inteles de ce ai scris in chirilic, noi folosim alfabetul latin, pe ambele maluri ale Prutului. Acum ca am lamurit ca suntem de aceeasi parte poti sa imi explici unde anume consideri ca gresesc.
@@MMerlyn91 conceptul de clasificării teritoriului național a unui stat Independent după proveniența etnică este o aberație s-au varianta prototip-modernizată a (Federalizării r. Moldova) , stim noi bine cine insistat cu asemenea proiecte de soluționare (Cozak) , defrișarea teritoriului administrativ al Republicii Sovietice Socialiste Moldovenești s-a produs cam după același concept , astfel r. Moldova după URSS a rămas fără Bucovina și fără esirea la Marea Neagră, fără Transnistria și fără Autonomia Găgăuză ...... Un om normal cu scaun la cap nu poate percepe dezmembrarea r Moldova înt-un astfel de hal, mă tem că sunteți dintre acei care scriu comentarii pentru trei copeici la vreo fermă de trolli de prin aceeași Transnistrie
That means Mexico reintegrate Texas peacefully?, and same for Taiwan?
Texas is part of the United States. Any Mexican action would be a violation of US sovereignty. It would be the equivalent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the case of Taiwan, it is internationally accepted that it is part of China. The issue is who is the legitimate government of China, Beijing or Taipei. The principle of one China is accepted. The PRC claims the right to retake Taiwan. But the argument is that it should be done peacefully.
Hi professor. Is it correct from a legal standpoint to say that "Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh" when in fact before last September it had never directly controlled the region ever since it got its independence from the Soviet Union?
Modern day Azerbaijan is a direct continuation of Soviet Azerbaijan
@@kostam.1113 That's a fair point. But I could argue that the one that exerted the real control was the Soviet Union and not the Azerbaijan SR. Besides, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous region with a very high degree of autonomy and they were essentially self-govern
Your analysis has been systematically wrong and in this case it will be proven even more wronger and riskier: Russia is free to use nuclear in this case because there is no mutual defense agreement/ security guanrantee that the 5 offer to Modlova after Soviet dissolution.
Could be a modern day Singapore in terms of forced independence if Moldova sees a peaceful move into the EU and not bothering with the costs of taking it back
Singapore strategic control of the strait of Malacca and deep ports US$3.5 trillion of global trade navigates through its waters mostly too and from --- wait for it! China I also wish Moldova had a Geographic Jewel like this
We do have potential but without a coastline it's not possible
With all the geopolitical considerations you have which are extremely valid, I can't help but to ponder about your extreme worry about drawing new borders, it feels unnatural and undemocratic! If people feel different enough that they wish to be independent and not subjugated to a majority then let them be the founders of their new country with its geographical disadvantages and quirks: At least the inhabitants will only have themselves to blame for their difficulties.
I was of the opinion that Ukraine and Moldova should team up on Transnistria and split the weapons, but after watching this video I am now of the opinion that Moldova will be able to peacefully reintegrate the area one day. Thank you for informing my opinion.
That wouldn't end well!
Moldova is in no position for a fight. There armed forces are less than 15,000 men. An Russian spends Alot of money buying influence to sow dissention. Moldova reclaiming the land could lead to Russia trying to buy a coup. Even if it doesn't work it's still Alot of trouble to clean up.
Thank you so much. I agree. I think a lot is also going to depend on what happens in Ukraine. But in the meantime it would make sense to leave Transnistria as it is.
Russia will eventually take odessa and keep Transnistria like it keeps Ossetia.
Excellent synopsis. Thank you.
And hello from Puerto Rico.
Now there's a territory that could win big from secession, by adopting a smart tax regime.
@@EdMcF1 Agreed. Unfortunately, a small percentage of the population favors independence in our country. That’s one of the consequences of being a colony of both Spain and the US for so long… but we will keep pushing for independence.
& I agree, an excellent and serious, but understandable presentation. Buenas noches desde México.
Thanks so much. Warmest greetings from my end as well! :-) And I must do an update on Puerto Rico.🇵🇷
New James Ker Lindsay? That’s what I call a GOOD Friday
And a very Happy Easter to all those celebrating this weekend! :-)
Very good analysis. Glad that you mentioned a tricky electoral balance as a major factor of holding the conflict frozen. Just want to add a piece why previous pro-Russian government wasn’t so keen to unify as well, even winning in terms of additional electorate for them - it’s a grey economic area where a lot of Moldovan money laundering is happening. For many this status-quo is too precious to lose.
Next month, I will have the opportunity to visit Moldova and Transnistria ..the feedback from folk i know there,there seems little support for a Moldovan intervention ..the damage ,even if such a move was successful ,would be counter-productive ,turning Trans. as the `victim` . And of course ,the tax payers in Moldovia would be footing the economic bill of that reunification( and a sizable Trans. population that is hostile to such action... and perhaps taking partizan action against Moldovan forces and institutes..
Love how youtube censors the most benign comments. 🙄
I was actually in Moldova 🇲🇩 last year on my way to Ukraine. In the capital there was a huge rally to join the European Union. Unfortunately I didn't have time to visit Transnistria, I'm sure it would have been a different experience.
NATO cannot accept a new member with existing international territorial disputes. Is Transnistria one such issue, or is it a purely internal matter that would not block accession to NATO?
Great question. It all depends. NATO's preference is clearly not to take in states with territorial disputes, especially when there is an international dimension of some sort. But one would imagine that there is also a sense of pragmatism. Sticking to this as a principle, come what may, would give third countries a right to veto who joins and who doesn't. This was why the EU took in Cyprus. At the time of the negotiations, it was felt that Turkey was blocking a settlement. There's also some discussion about whether NATO should take in Ukraine. It would depend on how the other members should interpret Article V in such circumstances.
Yes, it is.
It less that it can't so much as it won't.
@@vaska1999 "Yes it is" what?
I believe Moldovan constitution prohibits joining any military alliance, same is with Austria for example.
What is the current state of Moldova's economy and military? I don't know that much about that region, but a look on the map show it's gonna be very difficult to invade due to geography and the economic situation
10:53 "Moldova's armed forces are small" but presumably they outnumber the estimated 1,500 Russian soldiers stationed on Transnistria?
Thanks. You're right. Yes, they do. But as I mentioned, there is also the very strong possibility that Transnistrians would also take up arms to fight off a Moldovan attack. Their armed forces are around 5,000, with 15,000-20,000 in reserve. But more would have done training in the past. Assuming only one in ten people is willing, trained and able to fight, that's still 50,000 potential soldiers.
The Russians would most likely go after Moldova's critical infrastructure with missiles if anything started.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks for your response. Do we think there are many guns in circulation within their populace?
I think letting this conflict continue to freeze is the wisest choice.
Or sometimes offering to give people what they want can resolve an issue.
I suspect few in Transnistra want full independence if that means they could no longer access Moldavia and Ukraine also has a sealed border.
Maybe a referendum at some point in Transnistra could more accurately gauge the level of support for complete independence.
More likely it would provoke a civil war in Transnistra that would draw multiple powers in as they all have ethnic populations there.
Read a book by Moldovan author Tatiana Țîbuleac recently. In an interview she said that she doesn't consider it an error when people identify her as a Romanian writer, as "Moldovan authors always saw themselves as belonging to Romanian literature". I haven't read any authors from Transnistria though.
Popular Moldovans identify as Romanian because most of them end up moving to Romania and living there. It's not a great country by any means, but incomparably better compared to living in Moldova. Normal Moldovans don't feel that way. Quite the opposite. Unless they're super liberal and progressive, most of them strongly identify as Moldovan and will hate you if you imply they're Romanian. They're (I'd say pretty justifiably) incredibly resentful of Romanians for getting into NATO, getting into the EU, and in general just being a real country and not some half-way Russified satellite state.
They're very proud of their culture and of being Moldovan, since for many of them, that's literally all they have.
Actually Moldavia was a thing way before Romania ever was.
@@joek600 Romania means - Moldova, Wallachia,Transylvania, Dobrogea (Dobrudja) regions ,we were the same in the past , but divided by foreign powers! - empires! Ottomans, Tsarist Russia, Austro-Hungary ! IMAGINE to be in the middle , squeezed by 3 powerful neighbors (empires!) it's a miracle that we made to unify these romanian (EX PRINCIPALITIES) in the past (remember - romanians were in MAJORITY even in the past ,despite foreign occupations) ...many centuries needed to wait in patience to unify these historical provinces for romanians... HUGE PATIENCE! and some bit of luck , to do this in the right moment ,in the right place (WW1)
@@bigbeautifulape5283 lol ok thanks for the laugh.
Because Transnistria was never historically Romanian /
Moldavian territory.
Excellent analysis.
I do think the only way for a stable peaceful future is by following the example set after the second world war.
People were moved between territories by recognising the facts on the ground.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, lots of questions were left unanswered, many have resolved themselves, others still searching for an answer.
By following that same formula, I think it's possible to find a lasting solution, and a peaceful Europe. There's a reason Europe was largely free of major conflicts since the second world war, just follow what has worked before.
Transnistrians already can get Romanian citizenship since like 2015, and I hear the passport office is busy since that's the only legal way they can get to work in EU, and in Russia they're not exactly welcome.
Nothing is going to happen. In 1991 the Transnistrians believed they will be discriminated. In the meantime they had time to realize nobody cares what language they speak or where their grand-grandparents were born as long they can afford to pay for their beer. Sheriff used to own a restaurant in Bucharest for a very long time, maybe they still do, on google maps I can find only one in Târgoviște. In 2005 or 2006 I was invited as the "+1" to a wedding between a Moldavian Russian and a Romanian ...
a political post cannot be taken by a non-moldovan. I would not call it noone cares what language you speak
I hope that someday they can just chillout and be nice to each other
The really interesting thing about this conflict is that it isn't as strictly ethnically based as other separatist disputes. A third of Transnistrians are Moldovans. And a quarter are Ukranians. By all accounts, the two sides interact relatively freely. It really does seem to be about vested interests in certain quarters.
@@JamesKerLindsaycertainly the Sheriff 'organisation' is one such 'interest'!?
Chișinău has no interest in starting a military conflict or unrest for the forseable future. It's already difficult enough to make sure the country stays on a EU trajectory, and that's where all the focus is atm. Maia Sandu has repeatedly emphasized that her govt seeks out a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
How do serbia recover kosovo that broke away from its sovereign state borders
I have already discussed this at length in other comments.
Just have to wait for the historical moment and it will come sooner or later maybe sooner if the right geopolitical chips fall in place.
By force of course.
It's a bit like a counter-factual scenario of Luxembourg (Moldova) talking about taking over the Saarland rather than France (Romania) post-WW1 and Weimar Germany (Russia) muttering threats, . Neither really has the means to do it, but want to be seen to be in a position to do so.
Pray not another war... Please
hello, can you please talk about saudi foreign policy in the recent years
how does Kosovo differ from Transnistria or the Donbas
Very good question. In a strictly legal sense, it doesn’t. (But I’m not the persons to argue with about this. I was very critical about the way that Kosovo’s status was handled in 2008 and I wrote a book on why it was so problematic.) That said, in a political sense, it always made sense for Serbia to let Kosovo go its own way, especially in the context of the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
Donbas is different in the sense that it has been formally annexed. Transnistria hasn't been annexed by Russia nor Kosovo by Albania.
@@seneca983Both territories were taken by force off sovereign countries no difference.
@@bilic8094 It's incorrect to say "both" since 3 territories were mentioned, not 2. In any case, whether the territory gets (formally) annexed by another country is a meaningful difference.
Kosovo is supported by the Western & NATO powers, while Donbas, Crimea and Transnistria aren't.
And since they aren't supported by the collective West that means they can't break away from Ukraine and Moldova.
In terms of Russia defending Transnistria, if Russia did a counter-offensive and took all of Ukraine's South-East (which would only occur if Ukraine's personnel issues exacerbate AND Russia actually has this as a tactical goal), then perhaps. I don't think this will occur, and I think it's mostly a case of posturing by both Moldova and Transnistria.
As for a peaceful settlement; I think it's the same many oter such conflicts. At minimum, a Gagauzia model of autonomy, and given Transnistria's industries, it's more likely that a power-sharing federal model would be preferred by Transnistrians. For Transnistrian elites, it's a matter of maintaing their political and economic monopolies and for Moldovan elites, it's I think a need to maintaing their own forces' access to the state. So barring some grassroots movement which would imply average Moldovans and Transnistrians find some common ground (Federalism, Multilingualism, a common umbrella civic, identity, mutual partial integration with both "Eurasian" and "European" economic blocs), I think it's unlikely for the moment.
Thanks so much, Christos. I hope all is well at your end. I completely agree. A lot is going to depend on what happens in Ukraine, but if Russia is defeated, then the overall picture could change significantly. Moldova and the EU will also need to do a lot of work to win Transnistria over. But the signs are that it could be done with the right incentives and political model. The differences between the sides are not as great as in other places.
Moldova was among the first victims of Russia's strategy of provoking a conflict in another country, then freeze it (while offering to be the "peacekeeper."). A sick joke, indeed.
sick joke is ukraine mostly and its role of "anti-Russia".
@@andrebyche31 Wut?
It is time for the reunification of Romania.
As a citizen of Moldova, I am strongly against military actions. But if it was to degenerate - without help of Ukraine and Romania - it will be hard to solve the issue once and for all.
Instead, I think the reintegration could be possible step by step, small steps, big steps and eventually separatists will fall(not all people on the left bank are separatists).
There is one strategic issue - huge interdependence between constitutional side and separatist region, on one side it is electrical power (good news - right now they effectively started building direct connection to Romania, as now, most energy coming from Romania still goes through Ukraine and separatist region of Moldova, those soviet bastards specifically built all industry on the left bank, keeping right bank rural). And separatists export most of their goods to EU, benefiting from the deals between Moldova and EU. Also they get money from the energy produced from "free" gas from russia.
There are many variables, but progress is being made. Moldova's government last year started a national program to learn Romanian language (as still there are people who migrated here during russian occupation(and sometimes their progeniture) and didn't learn the language. And guess what - this year there were like twice more requests than initially expected, including from the left bank. But after connecting properly electric networks of Romania and Moldova, this will be a huge gameover for separatist regime. Extra economic measures will be introduced, and they will either yield/run, or be killed by the people on the left bank.
Thanks. I completely agree. I don't think a military solution is the way to approach this. For all the reasons I discussed, it is far better to keep up the carrots and sticks on Transnistria. And you are right: there will be many in Transnistria who will not fear unification, especially if a good political model is put on the table and it comes with EU-supported investment. It's really interesting to hear about the Romanian language classes.
Thanks for another great video, Professor. Could you share your thoughts on the future of international law considering what’s happening around the world. What could be done proactively to replace the existing system and rules if the current system is becoming untenable due to the lawlessness of actors like Russia.
Interesting video and seems like a thoughful and balanced analysis to me, thank you. One thing Ive seen discussed about this crazy place is Sheriff and corruption - perhaps something that could complicate matters even more.
Moldova is a small tiny country like Djibouti 🇩🇯 with a micro-satellite armies, that cannot fight a war of attrition, rather they can only afford to secure their internal security. Moldova and Transnistrian will resolve in peaceful negotiation, NATO has no room to involves because of territorial conflicts and Russia wouldn't invades unless NATO rise up this conflict, Thank you, great insights 👍
A quibble, The video title is Moldova Time to retake Transnistria? However the Thumbnail is Putin looking dubious with the tag line Russias next War. It is a little confusing...
Thanks. Hopefully all is answered in the video!
I assumed it was a click-bait title. It worked, though.
@ProfBoggs I don’t do clickbait! :-)
Maybe a freightning question, but what about using russian tactics? The major problem for the Moldovan Goverment is the Russians living in Transnistria, that would then be the majority in the country. What if, and I dont support this in any way, but when the moldovan government would relocate the russians in any shape or form?
Moldova is on course to join the EU, any war would damage its application process for no real gain in terms of the economy which is on its knees. You never mentioned the war of 1990 between Moldova and Transnistria ?
hi from Moldova 🇲🇩🙂
Hello! Warmest greetings! 🙂
I don’t think Russia would be capable of defending them. Armenia is arguably a closer ally and Russia did nothing to help them.
The two aren't even remotely similar. Moldova has no real allies and it's a pathetically poor state with a tiny population situated in an area without any mountains. Azerbaijan not only has more people, but it's in a geographical location that's much easier to defend, and they're rich as fuck. A lot of other very wealthy and very powerful countries have an interest in Azerbaijan not devolving into war. The whole energy infrastructure of the future is being built around Azeri oil.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 Bro, what?
GDP per capita:
*Azerbaijan* - $7,530
*Moldova* - $6,411
GDP (PPP) per capita:
*Azerbaijan* - $18,694
*Moldova* - $16,916
The 2 countries are about the same economically.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 And although Moldova's closest ally (Romania) isn't as powerful as Turkey (Azerbaijan's closest ally), still Moldova *too* has "very wealthy and very powerful countries" that have a strong interest in it (and the region at large) not devolving (further) into war... namely, the EU, lol. It also just signed a defense agreement with France.
@@bigbeautifulape5283 Minimum wage today:
*Moldova* - €260 (~$673 PPP)
*Azerbaijan* - €187 (~$505 PPP)
Average net wage:
*Moldova (2023)* - €557 ($1,291 PPP)
*Azerbaijan (2022)* - €364 ($1,189 PPP)
Moldova overtakes Azerbaijan here...
HDI Moldova: 0.763 (rank 86th)
HDI Azerbaijan: 0.760 (rank 89th)
The countries are def very similar both economically & in their development.
@@dyawr GDP per capita and minimum wage are irrelevant to the economic power of a resource-rich state. Azerbaijan can have poor citizens but it's still an economic power due to oil and gas production in the Caspian Sea. Russia has running economic agreements with all the Caspian Sea states. There was no reason to shoot itself in the knee for a state that would not stand up for its own people's ethnic enclave.
Moldova needs to talk to some of the unhappy Russian Republics & have them all break away from Russia at the same time. If that happened there would be little Russia could do.
Good afternoon James
I find the ethnic composition of Transnistria interesting - would like to know if any polling has been done on the 23% Ukrainians in the breakaway state. It is probable that they moved at a time when Ukraine was very pro-Moscow, but then, many of those who previously held such views, especially in cities like Odesa (not far away from Transnistria), have since changed their views - and so, if the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed their views on Russia in itself.
Also, if there is a military action, would it not be difficult for Russia to manage, given the original plan back in 2022 of establishing a 'land-bridge' upto Transnistria has failed ?
A great insightful video as always and keep up the good work.
it all depends on age, not ethnic origin. pensioners for Russia and Putin. youth for europe
Transnistrie was aggregated to Moldova by Stalin in 1940. Before it never was part of historical Moldova. In 1792 it was taken by thé russian empire from thé Ottomans and thé current capital city of Transnistrie was built thé same year by Russian général Suvorov. So no historical rights from Moldova to take back Transnistrie. Odessa is likely to bé Taken back by Russia before thé end of this current War. At this occasion Transnistria will likely join back Russia too. If Moldova keep quiet and doesn't provoke Russia peace will go on for thé benefit of everybody. Moreover if Roumania leaves NATO Russia could ease réunification of Moldova with Rumania. Russia has fabulous cards to play with Rumania, Bulgaria and Serbia giving back them Moldova, northern Macedonia and Kosovo with Krajina ... 😊
Thanks so much, Anirudh. I hope all is well at your end. Great question. I'm not aware of any work done on this. But it is a fascinating issue. I wonder how things will change as Moldova moves closer to the EU.
The land belongs to the people who live in it. The UN charters have that people have the right to self determine. Didn't they just have a vote in Transnistria and in another part of Moldova that these gurus of wisdom manage to forget?
The UN Charter accepts a right of self-determination. However, it also recognises the territorial integrity of states. This apparent contradiction has been resolved by granting peoples within existing states the right to self-government. It doesn’t give them a right to unilaterally break away and create separate independent states. This is a common mistake people make when discussing these issues.
@@JamesKerLindsay Isn't self govern = break away? People aspirations reflect much better their history than lines drawn at time t by someone from far away.
Why can't the Transnistrians just move to Russia? More than enough space there for them.
They'd face call-up for starters.
@EdMcF1 Indeed. I did think that this has probably played a part in shifting support for Russia, especially amongst young men - and their parents, and sisters, and aunts and uncles.
facepalm
They’re more valuable to Russia as a nuisance to Moldova than as actual Russian citizens.
Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland joined the alliance in 1999. Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia joined in 2004, Slovakia. In fact, of the members added between 1990 and 2020, all were part of the Warsaw Pact or the former Yugoslavia. And now Sweden and Finland, after the Russian criminal invasion of Ukraine
It's strange how all these countries, previously oppressed by the USSR, wanted to join NATO as soon as possible.
For example, in Hungary, 85% of voters voted in favor of joining NATO. It's almost as if they are still afraid of Russia's imperialist efforts.
What other European country besides Moldova and Ukraine does Russia have a substantial ethnic Russian minority?
Estonia and Latvia I think.
Especially Estonia.
No mention of the vote in Transnistra 2006 and overwhelmingly voted to join the Russian Federation! Russian refused Transnistra. Russia pays the majority of pensions in Transnistra and provides affordable gas. Transnistra has always had a defensive force that is larger than Moldova regular army and better equipped.
I believe that the Native American Indians should regain their territories
Not sure why your videos are not recommended more often for me.
No mention of the movement within Moldova to united with (basically be swallowed by) Romania?
У вас немного искаженное представление относительно будущего Молдовы. Если республика гипотетически войдет в состав России, то не будет никакой насильственной русификации. Кто примет новую власть, так и останутся на своих местах, будут дальше работать на благо республики.
Azerbaijan received a subtle wink-wink from Putin after Armenia decided to improve ties with the "West".
Let me correct your statement. Armenia (2018-2020) continues to house Russian bases and border guards, increases trade with Russia, buys 96% of military equipment from Russia. Meanwhile Russia is increasing ties with Azerbaijan, sending more weapons.
Azerbaijan (2020) holds exercises with NATO member Turkey and invites Turkish generals, special forces and Syrian mercenaries to attack Nagorno-Karabakh using Turkish weapons.
Russia doesn’t stop the war until the last moment to incite a revolution in Armenia and get their person to run the government (they fail).
Stupid Russian bots: Armenia is turning to the west and NK isn’t Armenia.
Armenia (2021-2022) continues to increase trade and defense ties with Russia, meanwhile Russia withholds $400 million in military equipment.
Azerbaijan (2021-2022) attacks Armenia proper. Armenia asks Russia for assistance because their territory is under attack. Russia makes excuses while Azerbaijan occupies 200 square kilometers of Armenian territory.
Armenia increases ties with the EU and gets a EU monitoring mission to keep Azerbaijan from further attacking Armenia. Meanwhile it continues to keep good ties with Russia and increase trade.
Stupid Russian bots: Armenia is increasing ties with the West they must be punished.
Fact is Russia backstabbed Armenia because they had more to gain from Azerbaijan. Conclusion: Russia is an unreliable partner using excuses to justify not intervening to protect a country it has betrayed.
@@strpet27 First of all, no one attacked Armenia. Secondly, Armenia itself did not recognize or defend Nagorno-Karabakh. Thirdly, Armenia decided to be friends with the West, so it learned a lesson and lost Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. Conclusion: you are a paid troll.
@@user-xm6zs6ez6i You’re so fixated that your country didn’t do anything wrong that you’re ignoring all the facts. I wasn’t accusing Russia of not intervening in 2020, I was accusing it of not intervening in 2022 when Armenian territory was attacked and it requested help from Russia. And also in 2023 when its peacekeepers stood by and watched as Azerbaijan took Nagorno Karabakh. Also Russia had good relations with Azerbaijan starting way before 2018 when Pashinyan was elected. (They were Azerbaijan’s largest weapons partner).
The hypocrisy of your statement accusing Armenia of being friendly towards the west while your own country is sending weapons and signing treaties with Armenia’s enemy.
Russia can continue having good relations with Azerbaijan as long as it wants and not do anything when Azeris kill Russian soldiers that is Russia’s choice. Armenia’s choice is now to get guarantees from more reliable partners.
@@strpet27 Don't lie, there is no official request for Armenia's help. Nagorno-Karabakh is not a part of Armenia. Which confirms the fact that Armenia itself did not fight. You want to do everything with Russian hands all the time. There are millions of Armenians living in Russia, none of them went to defend Nagorno-Karabakh.
Would this situation be simpler if Moldova would have immediately rejoined Romania in 1991?
The video don't spoke about France, almost 3 mounths that's declared
Fun fact, Transdnistria is the only place other than the Ukraine where Ukrainian is an official language. And in fact you can watch the news from there in Ukrainian right on this platform. Plus Ukrainian 'national hero' Taras Shevchenko is on the 1000 transdnistria ruble note
Taras Shevchenko is not a 'Ukrainian' national hero; he is a hero in most of the former Russian Empire. The guy was a subject of the Russian Empire while Ukraine only appeared on the map after he was dead!!!
@@MWENDA-vv5im He wrote in Ukrainian language, what are you talking about? The language of a poet is the first indication of his nationality. He was also born in Moryntsi, which is today in Ukraine. He was a "subject" of the Russian Empire only because the Russian Empire was denying him the right to live in a free Ukraine.
Shevchenko was one of the most active participants in a secret political organization in Ukraine, the Brotherhood of Saints Cyril and Methodius, and headed the revolutionary nucleus in it.
In 1844, Shevchenko wrote the poem "Dream" that described the social and national oppression of the Ukrainians by the Russian upper classes. And he wrote many other things.
He was arrested, imprisoned end exiled far from Ukraine, near the Ural Mountains, without the right to write.
That's in short. You can read more on Wikipedia.
@@Cosimoro72 Yes, Ukrainian was his mother tongue but he also wrote in the Russian language.
@@Cosimoro72He wrote poetry in the still not standardized Ukrainian of the time. He wrote prose, including I believe his prose fiction, in Russian
Good analysis. I lived and worked in Moldova. Organic reunification will happen eventually. I can promise you that the lack of consistent support for Ukraine by NATO members is a poor advertisement for any military solution by Moldova. Please have a look at the geography. Transnistria is being strangled by Ukraine on one side and Moldova on the other. Transnistria's only outside access is via a river to Odessa. It is more likely that Ukraine will cut this access. Most Moldovans are content with remaining as Switzerland. Last, Moldovas' army is tiny and poorly equipped.
So, the members of NATO should decide if they are going to resolve the Ukraine war before they start looking at Transnistria.
I seriously doubt Moldova will attempt anything overtly military. There is a small chance of a limited blockade or covert action but even that seems unwise. Economic integration but with an implied cost for separatism would seem the best strategy. Moldova would do well to seek financial aid for reintegration and be seen to do so.
"The Eu wouldn't be interested in taking in a divided state..."
Looks at Cyprus 🤔
The EU is currently doing 10000000000X more for a non member (and probably not eligible for the next 50 years if the standards applied) than it ever did for Cyprus. The only reason Cyprus wanted an EU membership was the false sense of security against Turkey. Financially and living standards wise the island is doing much much better than many EU recent additions (after the 90's). The Cypriot Pound used to be a harder currency than the British one. A large part of the affluence comes from the fact that the island has been basically the money laundry of Russia and Middle Eastern states, antagonizing in that function the established European money laundry states. The EU allowed in Cyprus in order to control or close down their little shop while giving back only platitudes and fanfares. Basically the Cypriots by entering EU put their fingers in the electricity socket and that was proved by the private (not just public) bank account haircuts they received die to a crisis that normally would not have touch them otherwise.
I hope that makes you feel better.
And security they did get
4:17 A bit of misinformation right there: Moldova and Transnistria were merged but Northern Bukovina, Hotin and Southern Bessarabia were given by Russia to... yes, you guessed it, Ukraine. That way Moldova would be landlocked. Funny bit of info, when everyone recognized the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact as null and void, the only country who didn't was Ukraine as not to give those territories back to Moldova and Romania, which were rightfully theirs. But back then Ukraine didn't care about international law like it says it does today.
If it now cares about international law, it's never to late
@@mouniash It is too late. It just shows their hypocrisy, caring about international law as long as suits them.
Thanks as always Prof👍🏻👍🏻
Hey is it just me or does Lavrov face look a bit weird? Looks like he’s got ‘ something’
Thanks. I wondered if anyone would pick up on that. I noticed it as well.
The west theoretically Supporting Moldova invading Transnistria would be flat out hypocrisy, after criticising Russia for doing something similar, to me it looks like big trouble anyway, if Tranistria has managed to keep that mixed population living in harmony best left well alone, an invasion could stir up real problems , And Moldova could bite off more than it could chew
The waiting game may be the wisest choice indeed. With growing prosperity in Romania (and the rest of Eastern Europe) and stagnation (or even decline) in Russia, the Transnistrians themselves may over time look to the west ...
Thanks. I agree. And a lot is going to depend on what happens in Ukraine.
I always love the historical context that all other conversations of this ilk lack! 👍🏻👍🏻🇦🇺
Пришло время Польше и Румынии вернуть свои территории?
the trap that the West would like
Moldova needs to retake Transnistria and be done with it. And NATO have to help Moldova in the process so Russia can't protest.
So Moldova can retake Transnistria but Serbia can't retake Kosovo because.. why exactly? Hypocrite.
@@KingslayerSrb Kosovo = Independent Country in 2024
@@FlamingBasketballClub How is the independence of Kosovo difference from the independence of transnistria? Kosovo is literally run by the UN
@@KingslayerSrbIsn't this Kosovo thing getting boring? Do you really want to forcefully retake Kosovo?
If you think about it, there are only downsides in maintaining this harsh stance towards Kosovo.
Nothings going to happen and if something were to happen, Serbia would inflict great harm to its citizens.
@@YourD3estinY It's just showing the utter hypocrisy involved when different countries are at play in one case it's ok in the other it's not.
The best way is to hold a referendum under un supervision
What is the inhabitants of the region wants? If they want an independent state for their own or want to be part of Russian Federation and their wishes should be granted, just like Kosovo was grsnded independence while it was seen as part of Serbia.
Kosovo is not independent. The largest American military base in the Balkans is on Kosovo.
Do you think that region would be independent with an even bigger American military base ?
The population of Transnistria is mostly pro-Russian. This applies not only to the Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, and Gagauzes=semi-Turkified Bulgars), who constitute 62% of the total, but to many of the Romanians, including the so called "ethnic Moldovans," too. Also, do not forget that many Ukrainian nationalists believe that Transnistria should belong to Ukraine.
You lost me at "Moldova may try to size breakaway". 🤣 That country is soo poor, i don't think they have money for pistol ammunition, not something else. Corruption is on another level... Ive been there in 2016, the amount of corruption makes Ukraine look like little baby.
Thanks. I was careful. I didn't say that Moldova may try to seize it. I said that Transnistria and Russia had suggested that it might try to do it - hence Moscow's warning that it shouldn't even try. The whole video was about why I couldn't. And why it shouldn't. :-)
Interesting video. Doubt Moldova have the power to do it, might set off Gaugazia, and Russia can't brute force straight through to Transnistria.
Hope it doesnt happen soon, I want to go and see Tiraspol and the many SHERIFF branded things lol
What about the recent signals from France in support of Moldova? France has also taken the lead of NATO forces in Romania. Will Moldova not be defended?
The time to have retaken Transnistria was during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022 when Russia was preoccupied with Ukrainian advances in the Eastern part of Ukraine. At that point, a pincer movement by Moldovan troops from the West and Ukrainian soldiers from the East would have crushed the Russian forces in Transnistria and made its reincorporation into Moldova a fait accompli.
1:43 "But with Russia now tied up in Ukraine ... " With respect, I wouldn't characterise it that way. That characterisation has been the usual narrative many Western analysts have employed in relation to the Russo-Ukrainian war. For instance, in Bakhmut in early 2023, they claimed that the AFU had tied up Russian forces when, in reality, it was the reverse. And, since the last quarter of 2023, Russian conventional military capabilities in the Ukrainian theatre of operations have continued to be enhanced as each week has passed. Conversely, the AFU's irretrievable losses have soared over the same period. This is mostly a consequence of the vast expansion of Russian standoff capabilities -- i.e., the ability to conduct strike warfare. From the current dynamics on the various frontlines, it is conceivable that Russia will eventually secure Kharkov to the north and Odesa to the south. And, with that latter, Russia will link up with Transnistria, thereby achieving an ancilliay objective of cutting off a Balkanized Ukraine from its seaports. I hasten to add that Russia securing Kharkov and Odesa might take another two years to achieve, i.e., if the war doesn't end later this year with Kyiv suddenly deciding that it had had enough -- and not wanting to lose any further territory -- by suing for peace on Moscow's terms.
I can’t see any other way than characterising it as Russia being tied up in Ukraine. That may change. But for the meanwhile, and when talking about other potential conflicts, especially in places that are separated from Russia by ongoing war, as would be the case with Moldova and Transnistria, then I think it is absolutely the case that Russia is tied up elsewhere.
I have been following this issue for many years.
I understand the Moldovan position, and the general position of "not giving away territory to rogue states."
Despite that, the Transnistrian question seems to me like it could "easily" be solved by Moldova renouncing any sovereignty on the territory of Transnistria and then driving **hard** for membership in the EU, and especially in NATO.
Let's be clear here, Moldova is in NO position to take on Russia militarily. They are the poorest nation in Europe.
It really seems to me like this conflict is one specific example where stepping back and building up defenses is the best option. I mean, the Russians are already there anyway, right?
Excellect topic to present on the podcast. Yet another territorial issue from the Cold War.
Assessing what could develop in a Russian exclave quasi-state with a mixed population is a pandora's box. Population relocation was a tool that Stalin used to move populations all over the Soviet Union as a method to keep separatist movements from gaining traction, thus a threat to the political goals of the Soviet state. We see the legacy of this in all the states of former Soviet Union.
Russian forces in Transnistria today are a "political trip wire" to demonstrate Russia's claim to this territory. Moldova has no capability to create a change in the status quo, any attempts to do this would simply result in Russia competely breaking/de-populating Moldova as Russia has done in southwestern Ukraine. If the political leaders of Moldova wish that nation to remain a state its focus needs to be avoidance of actions that create friction with Russia. If friction is created Russia does have the ability to create havoc upon Moldova.
Seeing that Russia did not not accomplish its initial political goal of simply toppling the pro-western government in Ukraine in 2022, Putin shifted to a localized border conflict area where they had the dominate advantage as a politcal open wound that would systemically weaken the western leaning government in Ukrine. Given this paradigm it is important for Moldova to avoid an expanded conflict by creating political friction with Russia. Putin has shown a great deal of restraint in not expanding the conflict to western Ukraine. Moldova needs to see the political realities as they are, not "wiscasting" the situation in the belief there is a political window of opportunity.
Russia has the ability to in a sustain way "reach out & touch" Moldova if any attempt is made to alter the status quo.
Like Truman's focus in 1950 in Korea was to keep that conflict localized and not created a Third World War, Putin wants the conflict in Ukraine to remain localized, but if Moldova/EU/NATO act foolishly Putin will vastly expand the conflict into a Total War paradigm. I truly feel the vast majority of the west do not even conceptualize the danger & gravity of the situation that Russia is a nuclear armed state & its' leader will escalate if required to secure victory. We do not want in 2024 for Moldova to be the Serbia of 1914. Thanks for having this as the topic on the podcast.
Moldova is not a NATO member. I wouldn’t risk 100% of my current territory for 10% more. From risk point of view it has high downside and low upside.
The question is how much military effectiveness in terms of weapons, equipment and personnel Russia has currently engaged in Ukraine.
Some say less than 10%, others say 90% and that Russia is over.
Without going into these speculations, Transnistria and Kaliningrad are critical points for Russia and any attack on those two points means a full scale war Russia vs NATO. Who wants to try to attack Transnistria and / or Kaliningrad will need a good assessment of Russian military potential and even more luck.
Mentioning Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia is pure distraction. To protect Transnistria, the Russians must first come to Odessa, and that is still a long way for the Russians.
You failed to mention the Turkic minority who live in the Gaugazian Autonomous Region within Moldova.
This was specifically about Transnistria. (It is very easy to confuse viewers by trying to cover too many issues.) I have done a whole video on Gagauzia and I did in fact put a link to it in this video. ua-cam.com/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/v-deo.htmlsi=K0eFTH2xp0x1F-a5
@@JamesKerLindsay I will watch that viddo, thank you.
Any attempt by Moldova to retake Transnistria would give Russia a perfect excuse to invade the whole of little Moldova. Not a wise move at all.
Moldova never had control of Transnitria. It refused to join them in their break away.
Now, Russian troops are there as authorized peacekeepers. An attack on them is an attack on both Russia and the UN. And it would be in the wrong.
Expect massive counterattack from Russia, as when the same thing was done by Georgia.
I suspect that if Russia was able to stage a “massive counter attack” it would have already done so against Ukraine. More to the point, Transnistria is internationally accepted as part of Moldova. Even Russia hasn’t recognised its self-declared independence.
Surprised you didn't talk about Moldova's Gagauzia who actively courting Russian support, even though they are a Turkic people. Though they seem peaceful and seem happy to be autonomous, who only want to seperate if Moldova was to join the EU or Romania. I feel for these small ethnic groups and they often get unfairly treated different by us if they align with Russia, which is often because they have no alternatives. One thing I will never get is we supported Kosovo independence but we seem to have a totally different set of rules for the Gaguazia, Transnistria, Ossetia, or Abkhazia. The problem with the international law is sovereignty of borders and self-determination are at odds. Personally I believe self-determination and freedom to choose is more important. Though I prefer peaceful ways like Scotland or Quebec style referendums.
Thanks. I covered Gagauzia in another video ua-cam.com/video/KlYoVJEoRzM/v-deo.htmlsi=qk0ueriL2UdxjXMD And I agree on Kosovo. Although I think independence is the best and most logical outcome, I argued that it needed to be consensual and that the way it was handled has created huge problems: www.bloomsbury.com/us/kosovo-9780857714121/
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks, I'll check out the Gagauzia video!
Что вы тут пургу гоните Уонистов в Молдове @десять процентов .остальные Молдоване гагаузы, ураинцы, руссие. И никто не хочет присоединятся к Ромонии не вриите
40% of the population of Moldova wants the reunification with Romania and their percentage is higher every year
Absolutely no. You cannot force those people to be a part of a country they don't want to be a part off.
I love how the UN throws democracy out the window when people vote to not be a part of the global kabal
How did Russia grant Chechnya independence you may recall? Bashkirs also want to have their own country or unite with Kazahstan. The only difference is that Transnistria was russified in the last 80 years (a lot of Ukrainians and Russians moved in for job opportunities in Soviet times), when at the beginning of 1926 the Russians made up 23% of the population and the Moldovans 49%. Is this fair for the people living there hundreds of years? What should happen with immigrants that now become majority in other countries areas? Should they be granted choice for independence or self determination? Russian people already have a country if they don't like Moldova they can move back from where their grand-grand parents came.
There you go - being objective does not mean sitting on the fence - you can express a rational opinion - you cannot be neutral on a moving train, as they used to say.
Good Vid.
Pro. I am proud of your critical reports
Thank you so much. That’s really kind of you to say. The next video is coming in a couple of hours. I’m taking a look at the history of US-Israel relations. (You’re the first to know! 🤫🙂)
I wouldn't be surprised if at some point Ukraine intervenes in Moldova and ejects Russian peacekeepers to Belarus. It would be one more way the Ukraine could put pressure on Europe to deliver battlefield weapons to avoid Ukraine "escalating" the conflict. After all, there have been incursions across the Ukraine border into Russia. I'm sure Moldova could protest quite loudly this Ukrainian violation of its sovereignty, and then restart more talks that never go anywhere.
There is literally 0 reason for Ukraine to do that. They're already struggling to hold onto the territory they have and take back what they can when they can. Also, this would in no way "put pressure" on Europe. Let's be clear, most Europeans do not give the slightest fuck about Transinistria, I honestly don't even think Moldovans do and I know many of them. Most people who aren't well-versed in geopolitics or who live in the region have no idea what this place even is. I grew up in Romania and I had no idea what Transinistria was till I was in my 20s.
As was stated in the video, this isn't really similar to other conflicts like Azerbaijan vs. Armenia where the two sides hate each other and would gladly do another ethnic cleansing. There's no real enmity between Moldovans and Transinistrans. It's not like Moldova is 100% Moldovan and then Transinistria is 100% Russian. There's Russians and Romanians in both places. And many Moldovans are practically Russian themselves, at least culturally.
Neither side here is interested in dying over some utterly valueless strip of land.
@@bigbeautifulape5283I would add that in most EU countries (especially those that were in before the 90's) the ACTUAL public doesn't give a fuck about Ukraine also. Now granted that the media are working 24/7 to change that and those who get invitations for parties in Davos most certainly care. But if you go out on the streets and speak to random people you will get answers that are closer to the reality of this conflict.
How ever little Europe is doing for Ukraine it will do ever less should they invade a neutral country
"retake" something that were never yours
Thank you for a very informative and clear presentation!
Thank you very much!
They should ask Ukraine for help retaking transnistria, then give the northern 1/2 to them. With plans to join the EU soon and get some money for infrastructure.
The problem is that taking in half a million disgruntled Transnistrians could severely upset the political balance in Moldova and tip it back in a more pro-Russian direction. In many ways, this would be the better scenario for Moscow. This might explain why Ukraine has avoided acting against Transnistria, even though there has been some speculation that it might step in to end the Russian presence there. It could backfire badly.
give your scotland to ireland then lets see what Westminster will do.