Preflop i lean to folding. The rest of the line i totally agree with. A check raise on the river for pot or even all in would be lovely. But i also understand the point of at least getting something by leading with like a 33% bet with a small chance of someone seeing it as a bluff and raising you
Hi Alex, I always love your analysis, but...really think you missed this one in two spots. Spot #1: The board brings in straight and flush draws on the turn. Since your OOP, why give TWO players a free card. So what if you raise and make your hand face up. You take down 57.85 big blinds! (Aces only win 12 - 14 big blinds on average). If you are heads up, it might be a different story but OOP no need to mess around multiway. Spot #2: On the river, the last thing you want to have happen is have it check around. With Villain 45 showing no aggression, you know he is going to check and Villian 44 is likely to do the same as they have shown just moderate aggression. Why not bet 15 - 20 BB representing you are trying to steal this pot knowing, from their perspective, the brick river could not have possibly helped you.
I really agree with Paul here. The turn card puts 2 possible draws out there. I think we have to fire here to both protect and get value from worse hands. If they both fold then so be it. It’s the same outcome as giving a free river card then checking down.
Note that hero has the ace of hearts, which cuts significantly into the heart draws that either player can have. (Do you think Player 44 has what it takes to three-bet pre with KhJh? In a loose-passive large-field pie fight on Ignition, I don't think it is the way to bet, absent a read.) Player 45 could have flatted our open with KhJh, JhTh, or Th9h, but that is just three combos of flush draws. They could also have the other three JTs and T9s combos for a gutshot. But they have lots and lots of pocket-pair combos, plus two A6s and three A7s. Betting to deny equity to draws when we have the deck so locked up is loss aversion. If I am betting at all, I want to bet for value, targeting Player 45's 99, 88, A7, and A6 combos or Player 44's AA and KK , betting something like 1/3 pot. But I think we can rely on AA or KK to bet once the flop has checked through, and there is value to be gained by letting another player bluff.
I like your thoughts except we already know one player (#44) is not going to bet the river and #45 is a questionable bet. You have to bet the river to at the very least, not reveal your hand if both fold to your value bet.
I would be looking to bet around 20bb on the river. This seems like the size a pair that was trying to pot control would call. As most players I play with would be unlikely to go for thin value on the river I think that it would be up to me to get extra value from them. Another excellent video as usual, thanks.
Good stuff, thanks Alex. I’d lead for a 1/3 pot on the river. Also, depending upon how wild the field is in these Ignition games (not sure about the $40k gtd), sometimes you can throw out a 1bb sucker bet on the river in the hopes that they raise you as a bluff.
I kind of like a river bet of 75-80 BB here. Considerations of only getting called by better are almost out the door unless they lucked into a 2-out boat on the river. I think somebody gets suspicious of that sizing and looks you up often enough for this to be the play
I think I want to bet the turn, something small like 1/3 pot, targeting either player's pocket pairs and Player 45's A7s and A6s combos, and then on the brick river betting small again. As played on the turn, I want to bet small on the river, again targeting weak pairs. As for preflop, well, my coach (ahem) tells me that I should be calling three-bets more thinly, so I think I can make the call here.
Early raise early flat early cold 3 Bet it's a tight configuration and it's hard to get good action from a draw on a board that's already paired so you kind of just risk paying off pocket 6s or sevens on the set mine and at the same time he didn't want to fold out the guy in the middle so it's sort of a strange mix between pot control and trying to keep the other guy in if you can catch an ace on the river you'll stack everyone if another heart comes out you've got a great hand to call with its blocking against the nut flush in such a tight configuration but you want to keep the Bluffs in you don't want to play it so aggressively that you're folding out everything weaker.
I'll add the fact you have the ace of hearts in such a tight configuration means it's very unlikely either of your opponents have the back door flush draw so you're kind of hoping they've got pocket aces pocket kings KQs (not in hearts clubs or diamonds so 1 combo, maybe they have some Queen Jack suited as well) almost everything else can snap fold in such a tight multiway configuration to a raise on the turn honestly Aces and Kings should consider folding there.
This deep vs squeeze i think its a just fold preflop
Preflop i lean to folding. The rest of the line i totally agree with. A check raise on the river for pot or even all in would be lovely. But i also understand the point of at least getting something by leading with like a 33% bet with a small chance of someone seeing it as a bluff and raising you
Hi Alex, I always love your analysis, but...really think you missed this one in two spots.
Spot #1: The board brings in straight and flush draws on the turn. Since your OOP, why give TWO players a free card. So what if you raise and make your hand face up. You take down 57.85 big blinds! (Aces only win 12 - 14 big blinds on average). If you are heads up, it might be a different story but OOP no need to mess around multiway.
Spot #2: On the river, the last thing you want to have happen is have it check around. With Villain 45 showing no aggression, you know he is going to check and Villian 44 is likely to do the same as they have shown just moderate aggression. Why not bet 15 - 20 BB representing you are trying to steal this pot knowing, from their perspective, the brick river could not have possibly helped you.
I really agree with Paul here. The turn card puts 2 possible draws out there. I think we have to fire here to both protect and get value from worse hands. If they both fold then so be it. It’s the same outcome as giving a free river card then checking down.
Note that hero has the ace of hearts, which cuts significantly into the heart draws that either player can have. (Do you think Player 44 has what it takes to three-bet pre with KhJh? In a loose-passive large-field pie fight on Ignition, I don't think it is the way to bet, absent a read.) Player 45 could have flatted our open with KhJh, JhTh, or Th9h, but that is just three combos of flush draws. They could also have the other three JTs and T9s combos for a gutshot. But they have lots and lots of pocket-pair combos, plus two A6s and three A7s.
Betting to deny equity to draws when we have the deck so locked up is loss aversion. If I am betting at all, I want to bet for value, targeting Player 45's 99, 88, A7, and A6 combos or Player 44's AA and KK , betting something like 1/3 pot. But I think we can rely on AA or KK to bet once the flop has checked through, and there is value to be gained by letting another player bluff.
I like your thoughts except we already know one player (#44) is not going to bet the river and #45 is a questionable bet. You have to bet the river to at the very least, not reveal your hand if both fold to your value bet.
My first thought was fold to the 3bet and the solver does pure fold AQo at 100bb deep in this spot. Cant imagine it becomes a call at 150bb.
I think you have to lead out on the river with half-pot-sized bet.
I would be looking to bet around 20bb on the river. This seems like the size a pair that was trying to pot control would call. As most players I play with would be unlikely to go for thin value on the river I think that it would be up to me to get extra value from them. Another excellent video as usual, thanks.
I could go for an x/r on the river. No one has 85 or 53 in a pot 3b in EP, so we only lose to a few combos of boats.
Good stuff, thanks Alex. I’d lead for a 1/3 pot on the river.
Also, depending upon how wild the field is in these Ignition games (not sure about the $40k gtd), sometimes you can throw out a 1bb sucker bet on the river in the hopes that they raise you as a bluff.
I kind of like a river bet of 75-80 BB here. Considerations of only getting called by better are almost out the door unless they lucked into a 2-out boat on the river. I think somebody gets suspicious of that sizing and looks you up often enough for this to be the play
Even I would bet that river, and with the sweetener of the back door flush draw bricking.
I check the river. If I bet and got reraised, I'd hate to fold. But if they bet the river, I could easily call.
I think I want to bet the turn, something small like 1/3 pot, targeting either player's pocket pairs and Player 45's A7s and A6s combos, and then on the brick river betting small again. As played on the turn, I want to bet small on the river, again targeting weak pairs.
As for preflop, well, my coach (ahem) tells me that I should be calling three-bets more thinly, so I think I can make the call here.
3x pot on the river... 😂 Mizrakhi style.
I don't understand the no check raise on the turn.
Early raise early flat early cold 3 Bet it's a tight configuration and it's hard to get good action from a draw on a board that's already paired so you kind of just risk paying off pocket 6s or sevens on the set mine and at the same time he didn't want to fold out the guy in the middle so it's sort of a strange mix between pot control and trying to keep the other guy in if you can catch an ace on the river you'll stack everyone if another heart comes out you've got a great hand to call with its blocking against the nut flush in such a tight configuration but you want to keep the Bluffs in you don't want to play it so aggressively that you're folding out everything weaker.
I'll add the fact you have the ace of hearts in such a tight configuration means it's very unlikely either of your opponents have the back door flush draw so you're kind of hoping they've got pocket aces pocket kings KQs (not in hearts clubs or diamonds so 1 combo, maybe they have some Queen Jack suited as well) almost everything else can snap fold in such a tight multiway configuration to a raise on the turn honestly Aces and Kings should consider folding there.
I would bet 13BB on river
bet 1/5 pot
Fold pre
fold preflop. flop Check. turn check-raise to 25b to get value from flush draws... r lead Bet 1/2 pot, as you clearly missed your flush draw, right?