Is The West Heading Towards Social Breakdown? | Aaron Bastani Meets Peter Turchin | Downstream
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- Опубліковано 17 чер 2023
- History is not just one thing after another. Historians spend lifetimes figuring out how X event in medieval France impacted Y event in 20th century Polynesia - but none of these historians have truly 'done the math' like this week's guest.
Coming from a background in applied mathematics, Peter Turchin has gathered an unprecedented amount of historical data which he believes gives him a better chance than most of predicting how societies slide into grave crises. He's been proven right too, in the early 2010s, he predicted that 2020 would see a global rise in instability.
You can find Peter's book here:
www.penguin.co.uk/books/44734...
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This is a phenomenal series of interviews. Not many platforms have the quality of conversations that Novara has given us here.
Not many? How about nine thousand!!!!!!????
😂
@@vincentconti-jb3hdleftist trope I see all the time which only proves the bubble-bound accusation. The underlying inference being ‘we’re so much better informed & intellectual’
As embarrassing as it’s erroneous, and as may yet be shown, a huge strategic mistake.
Perhaps underpaying the working class and making sure there's no perks to their employment is part of the plan to drive the talented/bright to become an elite? I love woodwork, metalwork and trades of all sorts yet, there's some kind of phobia about those life paths; I've even heard an engineers being referred to as a 'grease monkey'. Being a tradesman is an expert calling, yet everyone thinks (it seems) they are inferior to to the white collars. I've seen mind blowing metalwork and craftsmanship that far surpasses anything a financier has turned out. Making stuff brings great happiness.
Great wealth is generally derived from great volume. No craftsperson can ever produce great volume. The "Anglo" culture is highly aspirational. Happiness and contentment are very much secondary considerations for most. It's all about cash and the trappings of wealth.
It’s not a phobia it’s a lack of prestige (status/$/fame)& positions available in “woodworking” for example.
stuff is the problem....watch paul guilding the earth is full speech.
Seeing an academic go on a podcast and admit freely when he is out if his area of expertise is incredibly refreshing. Too many academics that make the jump to public intellectual just spout off about any and everything despite having a somewhat narrow area of experience. It’s OK to not have an opinion on everything, but I can also understand the impetuous to chime in on every question asked during a podcast.
Sad to say but I feel it's because of his non-Western background. Western born and raised academics all parrot the same talking points it's like they are brainwashed to think the same way it raises serious questions about the value of Western Academia. Time will tell but if my hypothesis is true non-Western education will outproduce Western education which might already be the case if you look at GDP growth of say USA and UK vs China and now Russia.
Why don’t you compartmentalize a bit and draw from experts in their field or a range of experts like the rest of us.
Too bad he didn’t freely admit not knowing anything about the political situation in America. Casting the right as ‘extremists’ and the left as fighting to preserve the status quo is laughable.
Absolutely fascinating, but I need to watch again to take in all that was being said. It was both revelationary and almost common sense. You can't predict the future but you can analyse patterns of behaviour based on certain conditions. So helpful when it feels like we are living in such chaotic times that are so difficult to make sense of. Thank you both.
It's ALL easily explained by the few modern analysts of neo-marxism.
But: Just try explaining to a 70s feminist (say, your mother or gramdma) that they fell HOOK, LINE AND SINKER, for a KGB PLAN to DESTROY the West...
You will get COW EYES and hear CRICKETS...
Peter Turchin is fascinating...makes so much sense!
Aaron is exactly the elite aspirant that Turchin is on about
Long form discussions of this nature are one of the better features of new media. This discussion has gone straight into my top ten. Couldn't put it down. Aaron gives good discussion.
Yeah, ever since UA-cam promoted long-form discussion we finally get to hear people complete a complex thought. instead of raising their voice to interrupt each other.
Fascinating interview. Bought Peter's book on the basis of this. Novara comfortably the smartest news broadcaster at the moment.
I am not convinced. Peter Turchin is the founder of the journal "Cliodynamics" which analyses the historical mathematical dynamics which lead to the collapse of social civilisation in societies. In 2010 Turchin published research using 40 combined social indicators to predict that there would be worldwide social unrest in the 2020s. He subsequently cited the success of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign as evidence that "negative trends seem to be accelerating" and that there has been an "unprecedented collapse of social norms governing civilized discourse".His latest book "End Times. Elites. counterelites etc" has unsurprisingly taken off in the USA and gained this American/Russian intellectual a global cult following. Yet he is no more substantial than the fictional character in Isaac Asimov 's Foundation novels. The founder of the fictional 'Psychohistory" method of historical analysis is named Hari Seldon, to whom, Turchin bears more than a passing resemblance. Don't be duped. I'll leave it there
@@BobCratchit-773 You have valid criticisms, but none that takes away from Liam’s point, which is that Novara is the only media outlet even exploring these ideas.
Whilst the BBC etc. are distracted by the latest Westminister nonsense, who is asking why the world is so chaotic and why nobody has a hold on the systemic issues? This is (literally, thanks to climate change) the burning question of our time, yet the mainstream media is stuck on the short-term political and sports circus year after year with no discussion at all as to structural causes or solutions.
@@BobCratchit-773what are you suggesting exactly?
Flippin' superb! I was glued to this conversation. Thanks a milllion.
Yes! I've seen a few interviews with Turchin recently and went on to read his book and I was really hoping Aaron would interview him too as he's one of the best political interviewers on UA-cam IMHO.
Just to add, the higher education system in the US over the last twenty years has become a complete racket 😢 Government backed loans and the tuition and fees have quadrupled!!
Last 35 years. The trend started in the late 1980s.
I'm reading Isamovs Foundation Series just now and this is reminding me of psycohistory which they use to predict the future in the books.
Yes, it is called Cliodynamics now
@@daminc both stole it from spengler.
@@darkprince2490 yeah but Spengler was into spiritual mumbo jumbo and rejected materialist analysis entirely.
@@BlueBeamProjectionist "materialist" analysis is a bunch of BS when applied to what is essentially a subjective reading of humanity and history. Any clown can do a data dump and pretend to have "discovered" or "verified" subjectively derived historical narratives. we al know that for example islam and christianity exist but if we muted the historical record for texts and symbols, could a data dump recreate the religious narrative. No.
For some reason, you types delight in materialist sterility.
A point about the Peasants Revolt:
Most of the standing army were abroad when peasants from all over the south of England converged on the city of London. Despite not being armoured, the peasants were excellently skilled and armed archers and quickly overwhelmed the small garrison. They lynched a few money men and the odd Bishop, helped themselves to some bougy shit.
The revolt ended when the King, then a boy and actually beloved of the Peasants, came out into public to address the mob. The peasants thought they were in support of the king, they thought he was their champion but restrained by corrupt advisors. Wat Tyler himself spoke to the king in front of the crowds and a peaceful resolution seemed possible. Perhaps overcome by an attack of ego, or realising that he wouldnt get out of this alive whatever the outcome, he became cocky. He was killed by the kings bodyguard, either for being too cheeky or perhaps for making big, quick gestures. The crowd immediately crumbled and were convinced to return home. Over the next year, identified leaders and those who hadn't been discreet about their bougy shit were hanged.
This wasnt a revolution, and it wasnt put down by superior armour. It was weird af
It probably seems weird because the historical record is entirely one-sided and self-serving. You also have to consider how the Norman rule of terror had affected the peasantry. There was no connection between the barons and the lower classes, the class divide was absolute, and the King had been risen to a position of a demi-god with a divine right to rule. This was a huge departure from the Saxon social organisation, but the non-elites would still largely have Saxon cultural tradition at the time.
@@TheUAoB i just wanted to say both of your comments are fascinating, need to look in to this historical era more. Thanks.
@@sw3783 slavery continued after 1066. Records mention people being sold as slaves from Bristol in the 14th C. Slavery always continues, no one ever "freed the slaves"
The dagger that killed Wat Tyler is still commemorated in the shield of the City of London
@@dubfox1691where is that quote from?
This is an absolutely phenomenal interview. I definitely look forward to reading his book.
I think one key difference in the modern age is that we have a global elite for the first time with global and cosmopolitan interests.
That modern age has been around for at least three centuries of global capital.
and the technology to force their will in ways that were never possible in centuries past. Some of these conversations leave out some very important pieces and sound naive IMHO. I personally don't feel the elites of today will just change their minds. They are working on digital money, limiting travel, and have told us we will own nothing. Do they sound like reasonable people?
Actually, I think what's new and dangerous is that this elite is convinced - for first time - that they can sequester themselves from the consequences of social breakdown; from armed response to escape ranches in New Zealand (and possibly occupying Mars - thanks, Elon). Hence excessive elite competition combined with the belief of personal survivability (along with, perhaps the inevitably of social breakdown) may be generating a negative feedback loop.
Very interesting conversation. Aaron I truly wish you success mate. We need more people like you. 👍
re. lawyers: MP Daniel O'Connell was a lawyer. He was on the side of the poor. He led the first political mass movement in Europe. His Association was so popular the British PM said
"We cannot tamely sit by while the danger is hourly increasing, while a power co-ordinate with that of the government is rising by its side, nay, daily counteracting its views"
He was imprisoned by the English despite his non-violence. He has, predictably, been omitted from the history books in Britain
In fact the UK parliamentary debates for the entire year of 1829 are missing from the online Hansard site, due to the culture wars being shamelessly waged by the UK elites to protect their wealth and privilege by stoking division between the Catholics and Protestants under the guise of protecting British liberties (a bit like the current tactic of protecting their wealth under the guise of being the defenders of Sovereignty and Democracy)
I don't think it's accurate to say Lincoln didn't win the Popular vote. He won 40% to the closest whole number which was way ahead of his closest rival Douglas on 30%. The situation was different because it was a four-way split, with the Southern Democrats and Constitutional Unionists on 18% and 13% respectively. He didn't win a majority but that's very rare even in the two-party dictatorship system the US has now. There's a strong argument that Lincoln would have lost in a runoff, but we don't know. It's totally different to 2016 where Clinton actually got *more* votes than Trump, yet Trump won (edit: because of the electoral college).
People have confused not getting a majority (which is very very common) with losing the plurality vote (which is a problem as it indicates the less popular person won over a more popular person). But hey, damn the facts and truth when trying to rationalize your ideology.
It’s happened in 2 of the last 6 elections. 33% is pretty often.
Mick Lynch is our answer to Bernie, currently. Very enjoyable content. I wish the left could use this insight.
Not a politician, naturally a trade unionist is closer to the working class.
Mike Lynch isn't a politician...?
@@reaceness Having and expressing political views doesn't make you a politician. Wouldn't stop him leading a coup though.
@@opinion3742 well, yes, that is my point.
@@reaceness use of a question mark was a source of confusion there mate
This interview was a very pleasant surprise and quite thought provoking.
"The New Elites forget the lessons..." Spot on! TY Peter Turch and Aaron for hosting.
I challenge the notion that there is no Billionaire Class in the UK. London is the financial capital of Europe rivaling wall street. The Jet Set in Europe includes people like billionaire Emad "Dodi" Fayed. They know to keep their Consumption less conspicuous. Here in the US those Billionaires most needing the Guillotine treatment are very unknown and will need to be dug out.
One of the best interviews I've seen in a long time!
"Shared dysphoric experience". That's what I'm taking away from this. And it makes sense.
Fascinately discussion. Thanks for sharing it!
Classic: "Could the crises we've seen in the last 15 years be just the start of something big. Our guest today Peter Turchin is an historian and applied mathematician. He thinks its just the leading edge of something catastrophic, because he can draw on 200 plus studies into social breakdown, civil war and revolution.
Peter Turchin welcome. Big question: Can we predict the future?
"I don't think so!"
Well I thought there would be more, much more, but thank you. That was Mint.
But we can do a fairly accurate risk assessment.
The future is one of great disaster as evidence by this US proxy war in Ukraine which has created a tragedy of epic proportions not just in Ukraine but also in many of the poor nations where the livelihood of millions r at stake due to the massive inflation arising from this proxy war in Ukraine
We need more of this!!. A lot more!!
Absolutely brilliant - truly such a wonderful conversation & one I’ll share w others
Everything he said resonated as instinctual thoughts I’ve had myself & he was able to so eloquently articulate
Bravo
Thanks for a good interview.
Corporate and private business ownership structures need to be outlawed. Employee ownership is the only moral entity.
It’s good to see a rather old-fashioned evidence and research based person explaining various problems and focusing on the wider economic and political issues that affect the majority, rather than the narrow identity politics we often see (which seems to be mainly fuelling support for anti-progressive groups).
What are progressive groups and what are they progressing to?
A very enjoyable and informative interview, thank you.
Peter Turchin makes similar arguments to Matt Goodwin a couple of months ago regarding the "new elite" of the graduate class. Curiously Aaron was on board with Peter's proposal but confrontational with Matt.
Outstanding interview with great insights !!
Excellent discussion
The conclusions this man comes to are very similar to what Dr Webster Tarpley has been saying for years on the World Crisis Radio podcast. All this except Webster used classical methods (Plato, Machivelli, etc) to come to the same answers.
Either way, it's great to see this, another great vid from Novara media :)
Stopped listening to Tarpley when he picked a fight and got sued by the Trump team … and then Tarpley went all TDS 🤷♀️
For a person so well-versed in how the Elites operate , he spent TOO MUCH TIME on Trump the person .
What a waste
That dude seems to be a regular democrat now. Trump seems to have pressed his buttons.
@SoCalAries I agree. But faced with Trump, though, and how bad the Republicans have become, I think the modern Democrats aren't looking too bad at the moment.
@@sledgyb That's a pretty bizarre statement. Do you watch a lot of mainstream news?
Was blown away by this discussion guys thank you so much. Love the "shared disphoric experience" theory and the idea of a bootcamp for prospective presidents 🤣 artificial but why not?
So fascinating but also depressing. Are the humankind doomed to fail any time about the extension of our elites? Can we breakthrough this vicious cycle of grow and decline? Thank you Aaron and Novara Media for your excellent work ❤
It seems that his main underlying thesis is the wealth pump. Turn that off and the economic pie is shared more equitably.
Post WWII taxes were very high for the elite in the US and society was a happier one. The post war social contract was dismantled in the 1970's and on went the wealth pump.
Tax the 0.1/% in the US and disarm Trump et al .
Presumably wealth redistribution will work everywhere.
I, rather embarrassingly, became an anarchist in my 40s following the meltdown of '08. Anarchy not being a goal to be worked towards but an inevitability to be prepared for. The only way of breaking out of the cycle is to take away the power of the elites. This is happening but slowly - compare the power of the rich and powerful with those of ancient kings and emperors. Disperse power downwards.
@@immortalsofar5314This goes against human nature, power always centralizes. There is always an elite class. Always states.
The best we can hope for is an elite class that is not decadent and understands they need to contribute 90% of their wealth as part of a social contract towards the rest of the population. Good example being Nordic model. The elites need to be taught moral leadership rather than selfish self destructive decadent leadership.
@@williammarshal2190 A contributing factor is the lack of stability in 90% of the world. If the US and Europe weren't the only viable open societies in the world, then everyone would be better off. If Central and South America and Africa can cobble together some English/American style laws and procedures then maybe theres hope. Sadly, I think that's unlikely. When the world depends on the US and Europe, both will decay and fall apart like a drowning man grabbing another man and they both sink.
@@williammarshal2190 most systems are actually decentralized.
I could definitely see someone using a model based on Turchin's work to create a society simulator with AI. Certain assumptions and values can best tested to their logical conlcusions, the metamorphosis of said values and assumptions over time based on intermingling with new ideas, or holding one simulation as a control and testing out certain variations at certain periods in their development. I feel like such a tool could benefit mankind immensely.
Keeping it world class as usual. 🎉🎉🎉
Fantastic analysis ♥️♥️👏🏻👏🏻
Great interview Aaron
I was taught the over production of elites theory at school. Amazing that modern methods of data analysis can now give so much support to that view.
Sounds like it was a good school
wonderful interview about his fascinating book "End Times" - people may have missed some of his references eg Martin Gilens ("Affluence and Influence") and social anthropologist Harvey Westhouse
I'm shocked this interview doesn't have more views
it's because of self-interest of the English hierarchy that there is no acknowledgement in Britain of the victims of the Irish famine, or anti-slavery activists Sir Roger Casement, trade union leaders James Larkin and James Connolly, or the first female to be elected to the House of Commons, Constance Markievicz (for the Sinn Féin party)
Super discussion...compelling content.
We’re not heading toward, we broke down 60 years ago! Look at the rapid increase of murders that started in about 1964. Look at how many of our beautiful inner cities are wastelands. Visit China, Singapore or Japan, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and see how clean and beautiful and high functioning everything is.
This all started with Lyndon B. Johnson and his great society program, it’s destroyed, tremendous amounts of wealth, not to mention the wars that started with him and Kennedy
This is the truth! 👍
This dude is my hero!!❤
Thanking you
His accent makes "Elites" sound like "Idiots". To be fair they should be synonyms at this point
I heard that too. And it's so true, we do have a surplus of idiots.
"there have been many wars where you have a massive power that can't defeat a far smaller one" - thought the Irish War of Independence might get a mention.. but it is an English show
Lord Edward Fitzgerald was a member of the elite - left for dead on the battlefield at Eutaw Springs and rescued by a runaway slave, Tony Small. Lord Edward was later captured for rebelling against English rule and left without medical treatment to die of his injuries in prison
The English hierarchy (as always) feared the Irish funeral as a powerful occasion for anti English-rule sentiment, and so had his funeral take place at 2am, with soldiers stopping and searching the funeral procession. After his death his sister said
"Without ambition he resigned every blessing this world could afford to be of use to you, his countrymen whom he loved better than himself, but in this he did no more than his duty; he was a Paddy, he desired no other title than this"
And you think then when those wretched men (elites) died things would change but of course the system remains. Humans are a failure. Better dogs or the grey mullet fish were in charge.
Amazing amazing amazing work guys.
Love this sh*t
Big love 💚💚💚🇮🇪
Can you interview Thomas Piketty? He is exploring similar patterns of human behavioir.
Very informative and interesting
This series is what brings me back to Novara these days.
It is and will happen because of The indifference of ego, status and greed. I have to say that among the worst and most arrogant of these most insdious traits of the human condition, is almost certainly the exceptionalism that resides within the English sentiment... The worst by far!
in representative democracies and parliamentary systems there is a distinct difference between the plurality and the majority. In the US Bush and Trump both became President with neither a plurality nor a majority. Lincoln, and Bill Clinton, won the plurality. It is naïf of Aaron to gloss this over.
I think the point was that Lincoln was not overwhelmingly popular as he is portrayed to be. Its a similar thing with Tony Blair in the UK - meant to have been super popular but when you look at the voting stats it says otherwise
“The first thing we do is, let’s kill all the lawyers.” Dick the Butcher speaks, Act IV, Scene II Henry VI, Part II (we think written between 1596 and 1599).
In Italy we call our first republic from '64 to '94
" Anni di Piombo " ( years of lead )
or look for
" Strategia della tensione " tension strategy literally.
Can we get a good prediction of the future of our society by studying the activities, interests and skill set of the younger generations.
Hardly! Get back on your phone!
Great Stuff
45:36 "do we live in a democracy"
"Nooh" xddd
Im rooted to the spot this is so fascinating
Will order the book!
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do are doomed to watch others repeat it. If you want to predict the future, take the stupidest crap from the past and repeat, interspersed with a generation or two, ad nauseam.
Interesting, thank you
This dude is a genuus!!!😮
There seems to be a lot of parallels between Gary’s predictions and what Peter Turchin discusses in your interview with him a few months back. Be interested to see those two having a discussion.
I really appreciated Turin's honest reply when the host asked if the US is a democracy. However, I do wonder if it ever was one. I can't stand the US hypocrisy.
1:04:00 Interestingly, Malinowski makes the same observation about the Headhunters of the Pacific when he describes why the beheading sprees restart. (Argonauts of the Pacific - early 1900s)
Lol, I was discussing about this way long ago and this guy is saying this what I already know, good to know that I'm not the only one aware of this
and, despite his reticence to apply his US findings to the UK situation, we know the facts of the "left" being the party of the credentialised, and the right being the party of the uber-wealthy, to be true
The reason why no politician offered "universal " health care ,is that we already have it. What you are asking for is "free" when nothing is free. All the "interests" need their hands in the till and richly. This is not a recipe for "free".
I have to say I disagree with some of the conclusions and implications of turchin’s comments here but I really appreciate being able to hear them in such a great format.
Professor Turchin at 1:26:43 said that "United States for example won the Vietnam War." If he had said that at 00:01:00 we would had confirmed early what we have suspected by 1:26:42.
When money is the loadstone of a person's moral compass, true happiness will be fleeting.
56:05 You say that but in the United States, when people can't find gainful employment they are denied housing and healthcare and this all culminates in premature death.
NOBODY can predict what has not happened yet, it is that simple. 😊
If you believed that you wouldnt watch the weather forecast.
Very interesting interview. PErhaps you can bring Tom luongo of Gold goats and guns to combine the above discussion with economics sector.
Think Turchin makes some good points but he doesn’t seem to have anything to say about the fundamental instability and corrupting nature of capitalism, which leaps from one crisis to the next. It seems naive or silly to argue that democracy can reign in elites when we see that they can leverage their money to turn economic power into political power relatively easily and undo any checks and balances that are in place to limit their ability to accumulate wealth. So I personally don’t find the arguments he makes that persuasive
I think he's trying not to say it in that way
@@jillybe1873 yeah agree.
Thats really not what he was talking about and he never mades that argument for capitailism, his work is about the dynamics of instability, not about political economic systemes. Most of his work fouces on pre industrail agrarian empires.
@@jimpaddy79 can see what you mean but I don’t think you have much to say about current instability of world if don’t analyse the way resources are allocated. Politics and economics are two sides of same coin and talking about one without the other isn’t going to shed any light on anything. Current instability is caused by relentless pursuit of profit and system that demands constant expansion as it has to grow from one year to the next. The reason you have a class of immiserated workers and a class of 1 percent is because this is how capitalism works. Doesn’t matter whether you think it’s good or bad this system will always create these two classes. You can then have the state to intervene to sand off the rough edges or winners and losers but one percent will always seeks to undermine this, as it’s a barrier to profit. Take nhs. You can’t make money out of a public service so it has to be privatized. Unions. They give workers too much more and share of profits so have to be destroyed. Which leads to immiseration of working class. The reason the “wealth tap” is turned on and off is based on who has more political power at any one point. Post WW2 we had strong unions and state that didn’t want to make communism look too appealing so had vested interest in making capitalism work for majority. Once the counter weight of ussr was removed there was “no alternative”, “end of history” so this counterweight was removed and we end up with 50 years of neoliberalism.
You need to read his book. An interview like this only skims the surface. He fully acknowledges democracies vulnerability to the iron law of oligarchy and so the power of plutocratic elites to subvert the political process.
This is Next Level history. Way over the average intellect.
He needs to stop hiding the racial changes to western countries, which is the greatest and most overwhelming change occuring, and this man will agree with the dissent right.
Best interview you've done Aaron, you need to stay on this level
BUT - Soviet Russia DID defeat Finland in 1940. Finland loves to talk about the 1939 Winter War, which was impressive, but ultimately they lost all the territory Russia had demanded and more - which they still have not entirely regained.
He's Hari Seldon... Surely?
Came here to say that! Foundation is where its at. (not the tv adaptation)
totally agree turn off the freaking wealth pump.
Not to mention that John Adams and Tom Jefferson were both lawyers.
Word.
Live this show
I've always thought that the best predictor of tomorrow is today so I always look out for things that will bring about a better tomorrow and I don't see it in those in power or about to take power. Like many, I see the opposite.
Monoparty. None of them want to fix the problems because they are the elite beneficiaries of the present system. Will require revolutionary energy to overthrow this inertia.
Interesting
interested in his take on J.D. Unwin’s thesis in the book ‘Sex and Culture’
Great interview packed with valuable lessons.I didn't know that Lenin's party was financially supported by one of the top ten oligarchs of the day!. The science of history comment and Turchin's development of a mathematical model of history reminded me of Asimov's Foundation series and the theory of psycho-history
Executives were murdered actually in the massive Renault plant in Paris during the long period of industrial conflict in France
Reminds me of Gunnar Heinsohn's youth bulge theory, as described in this book "Sons and World Power".
Of course we can pridict! Accuracy may be an issue but predictions may always be made based on patterns.
Fascinating discussion. Not heard of the interviewee before, very informative.
What he says about revolutionaries coming from dissatisfied elites reminds me of Mark Steels remark that revolutionaries tend to come from small towns... he imagines a bored teenage trotsky getting fed up waiting for a bus (or something) and deciding to become a revolutionary
Yeah-but... notwithstanding that the leadership naturally tend to be intellectuals, since they are capable of elucidating "big ideas" to people with less education, the core of the revolutionary force in Petrograd in 1917 were returned enlisted soldiers ie from working-class and peasant families.
You should pay attention to him , by far the most important social scientist working today .
The accent and lack of popular charisma makes him less well known, but he is leagues above anyone else trying to explain how societies work and the reasons as to why we are where we are
Great video, fantastic guest who adds loads of interesting details. However, your initial statement that "nobody predicted these events" is more a reflection of a limited reading/listening content than a statement of fact.
A more factually accurate intro would have been "Many people have talked about the events that would unfold, but few have brought the same mathematical rigour that Peter Turchin brings.
Keep up the good work!
I wonder if widening the gene pool has something to do with the breakdown of social solidarity. It would make some sort of a sense from an evolutionary perspective it people subconsciously feel that they have less "genetic interest" in helping their neighbours. Is anybody aware of any studies addressing this possibility?
The only study I know that covers this is about how gene diversity can lead to civil wars in ant colonies. For humans social cohesion is more psychological then genic, most people through out history have been ruled as some sort of muilti ethnic empire, and even the white population of Britian has a lot of genic diversity, what effects cohesion is wheater people feel there part of that wider identity, that doesnt mean they have to feel equal, but that they have some place with in it.
@@jimpaddy79 What do you think about Robert Putnams study with regard to ethnic diversity and social trust? I realise these are hugely complicated questions because human society is complex. But it seems like a logical hypothesis that genetic diversity could play a part. It would make sense that people are more likely to co-operate with those closer to them. Though other factors could quite easily override that. I.e. strength of religion etc
@@LS-xs7sg I think Robert Putnam's findings, can be explained that the American identity is not strong enough to to bind the people of different races together into one unifying identity, which isn't surprising given American very difficult racial history, maybe that's why so many people identify as Irish, Italian or African etc America rather then just American. By contrast Syrians and Egyptians identify as Arab despite only sharing 3% genes with Arabs from Arabia. I think history shows that genes people think they have are much more important then the genes they actually, and they think they have those genes because they want to be part of that identity.
@@jimpaddy79 Maybe. Though i guess Egyptian identity benefits from the fact that they have had very low immigration compared to America. Though of course they have their religious problems with the treatment of the Copts. I dont really see what the arabic percentage of egyptians has to do with it though. I would guess that Egyptians are relatively similar to each other genetically since they haven't had large scale permanent immigration like other countries. Also, Egypt might be a rather unique case given the huge cultural cache of Egyptian history. I mean who wouldnt want to identify themselves with the people of the Pyramids etc?
@@LS-xs7sg My point which relates to your first comment is that genes don’t matter to identity and social cohesion, the Egyptians aren’t genetically Arab but they identify as Arab, while Muslim and Copts Egyptians are genetically identical but have conflict due to their perceived identity. Peoples different cultural identity may cause problems of social cohesion but there genes don’t
Is he talking about Asimov's Foundation trilogy's Psychohistory?
Cancelling was also accomplished by accusations of witchcraft. I think it’s a closer analogy.