The Dark Side of Tom Sosnoff's Iron Condor Strategy

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  • Опубліковано 19 січ 2025

КОМЕНТАРІ • 38

  • @thisaccount3403
    @thisaccount3403 9 місяців тому +4

    I am curious why so many TastyTrade videos reference on $-wide wings on SPY rather than Delta-wide wings on any stock/ETF. Wouldn’t explanations using Delta-focused examples be more descriptive?

    • @Luca-rb2uw
      @Luca-rb2uw 5 місяців тому

      I’ve always wondered this…or at least describe using a percentage% of the stock price. Just the width alone doesn’t help a lot and it’s confusing me. Have you found an answer??

  • @pragmatica1032
    @pragmatica1032 10 місяців тому +1

    This lesson is so important! Very happy to have watched this over the week-end as I was just about to enter in a narrow wing IC this week...

  • @randyhibshman3682
    @randyhibshman3682 Рік тому +7

    Thank you for this helpful summary. In these research segments, I would be interested to see histograms of the P/L distributions. There is discussion about how the distributions compare, but I think it would be even more compelling to see comparisons of the actual distributions. Histograms are easy to create using the Analysis Tool Pack in Excel, for example.

  • @0xfouad
    @0xfouad Рік тому +3

    How would the profit profile for butterflies behave if we increase width of wings, let's say $5, 10 and 20? Will it be identical to iron condors?

  • @Deucenheimer
    @Deucenheimer Рік тому +6

    Is there a reason why fees and commissions are included in the calculations? I think it would further drive the point that $1 wide isn't very practical on the 45dte due to the % of that credit eaten by fees. On slide 3, the avg. P/L would go from -$.3 to -$5.3 if you assume $5 per trade in fees and commission.

    • @rickn5833
      @rickn5833 Рік тому +2

      Exactly. If managed at 50%, commissions really cut into profit.
      $1 wide - 31% commission
      $2 - 15%
      $3 - 10%
      $5 - 6%

    • @KnowledgeCurse
      @KnowledgeCurse 5 місяців тому

      That is why low iV environment is not very attractive.

  • @BCNeil
    @BCNeil Рік тому +5

    Thanks guys. I always knew wider was better. I personally do it by delta. Like to sell 20, but 10. But I always had a hunch they were faster to hit 50%. Glad to see that hunch was correct.

    • @pragmatica1032
      @pragmatica1032 8 місяців тому

      Delta seems more logical, but how are you dealing with put / call skew vs your BPR? Are you ending up with different widths (in $ amount) often? How does that affect your BPR? Thanks in advance!

    • @Luca-rb2uw
      @Luca-rb2uw 5 місяців тому

      @@pragmatica1032I have same question. Mine seem to be highly skewed often, especially when trading on less liquid/more uncertain products than SPY. I still stick with the mechanic of “equal delta (NOT equal price)”…

  • @13mae13
    @13mae13 Рік тому +4

    It appears, the assumption is that a trader would allow the price to reach his/her short strike, in which case it would then be easy to hit the long strike, as well. However, what if a trader was willing to manage the spread or an iron condor more closely and expand the narrow wing (say, 5 points on SPX) into a wider wing (say, 10 points on SPX) when rolling up/down and out to get additional credit while reducing the risk of the short strike being reached? How, if at all, would this change the discussion around narrow wings?

    • @randyhibshman3682
      @randyhibshman3682 Рік тому +3

      expanding the wing width as part of a rolling/management strategy tends to increase risk disproportionately to the amount of additional credit received by doing so. expanding the wings can save a breached trade if the underlying treads water or moves favorably, but can result in a much worse condition if the underlying continues to move against the trade. I have found that it is usually better to take a smaller loss and move on, rather than to double-down and increase the capital at risk in a breached trade.

    • @MrEo89
      @MrEo89 Рік тому +2

      Rarely do you get out ahead by doubling down.

  • @frowe2049
    @frowe2049 Рік тому +3

    Excellent analysis. It seems counterintuitive, likely many options traders use smaller wings. Well explained.

  • @amritdas5367
    @amritdas5367 7 місяців тому +1

    What about losses? Wide iron condor has maximum loss than small iron Condor.

  • @BBB_26
    @BBB_26 Рік тому

    Fantastic video! Thank you very much. It would be interesting if you would stratify for the difference in Delta as opposed to the width of the wing. So instead of saying five dollars wide say 15 to 20 Delta wide. I’m just curious if that has any impact or just less variability

  • @13mrbolivar
    @13mrbolivar Рік тому +1

    So, if I do an iron condor 45 days out with the short put and call set at a 10 Delta, there is more risk if my long positions are closer to my short positions? Why?

    • @Luca-rb2uw
      @Luca-rb2uw 5 місяців тому

      Well there’s more “risk” if your long strikes are FURTHER from the shorts (wider spread) as you don’t have as much protection. But you will get more credit this way

  • @kenexlookify
    @kenexlookify Рік тому

    how do I conduct such a research myself!

  • @ha-bg7qo
    @ha-bg7qo 15 днів тому

    Wouldn't be better to increase the body of the iron condor and keep the $5 wings?
    In a small test example that I did it would give you a higher ROC, even considering fees and commissions, while keeping the "profit spread" at the same size (same probability of success).

  • @Q8Patriot
    @Q8Patriot Рік тому

    Wow great info, thanks alot for sharing it 😅😅

  • @Cleszczar
    @Cleszczar Рік тому

    Now what about holding a $1 wide weekly for 4 days; $2 wide two weeks out for a week; $3 wide three weeks out for a week... The gradual size increase with the duration lessoning the volatility is an interesting exercise if all you are going for is a .30 win with each strategy. Because lets face it a strangle gets bought 4 weeks and closed at 2 weeks. So depending on size of underlying, 2 weeks out a $5 wide till expiration might be more like the strangle 5 weeks out

    • @Cleszczar
      @Cleszczar Рік тому

      Think or Swim desktop edition lets you analyze potential return based on time in the trade. Risk graph changes to show how the wings help at first but hurt over time. Tasty has a little bit of forward analytics but not as nice. $100 account with tos gets you all the software...

    • @smartmoney8054
      @smartmoney8054 Рік тому

      Do it on think or swim paper trade and let us know your study results

  • @tdiler12
    @tdiler12 9 місяців тому

    horrific audio.. but informative

  • @MichaelDavidRobinson
    @MichaelDavidRobinson 4 місяці тому +1

    This was very poorly described as to what the difference was in the beginning as to the reason why someone would intially put on a wide IC or narrow IC so you lost people that need to learn form the beginning because you did not explain the premise.

  • @malihachape
    @malihachape 4 місяці тому

    This analysis is good but it is missing half of valuable information and thus is misleading, if you consider different strategies. When you setup one IC with 20 delta and 20 WIDE wings, that's only 1 trade in 45 days. For the same price, you can have around 13 trades with 2 WIDE wings on IWM (same 20 Delta). If you enter all these 13 trades at once, correct, one trade with 20 WIDE wings is better option, however you don't have to enter all these 13 trades in one day. You can spread these over lets say next 20 days, resulting in many ICs with different strikes, depending on move of the underlying. For example, you can enter 5-7 trades 2 WIDE per week. Or you can wait till underlying moves 20 or more points and only then you enter another say 5 trades 2 WIDE, further minimizing losses and optimizing your risk. Think about it, if you enter half of your 2 WIDE trades only after 20 or more point move, you are already better off than one 20 WIDE trade. It is of course more fees and more management, but it might be better strategy especially if you don't have millions to spare.

  • @assorita3861
    @assorita3861 Рік тому +4

    If you are using 0dte, this is useless.
    Because the credit is so tiny, that any width will eat it out x10 fast.
    I use statistic and trade IC 0dte. To expiration. If I close them early, I reduce my reward to risk dramatically and the statistics I looked at become irrelevant. So theoretical proft? No... real.
    If I trade 1:2 reward to risk, and let it expiry, then I know I need 70% win rate approx

    • @jtownjad
      @jtownjad Рік тому +2

      They said in this video that they are basing it on 45 DTE, if this was for 0dte it would be a different video

    • @tomiskind
      @tomiskind Рік тому

      It is the tricky point of early management, while the p/l degrades the win rate also increases.

  • @northatlantic2723
    @northatlantic2723 Рік тому

    The chart on slide 5 is very telling.

  • @billstevens5277
    @billstevens5277 Рік тому +1

    Tom, get your Risk department under control.

    • @MarouenAK
      @MarouenAK 5 місяців тому

      I am definitey confused

  • @assorita3861
    @assorita3861 Рік тому +1

    To me, risk reward is very important in those trades.
    Cause when it pops, it's usually max loss.
    If you don't collect max gain in a statistically designed system... you are off.

    • @smartmoney8054
      @smartmoney8054 Рік тому

      You should watch more educational from tasty and paper trade to become comfortable. Risk management will prevent you from max loss. Manage those trades brotha

  • @MichaelDavidRobinson
    @MichaelDavidRobinson 4 місяці тому

    New traders and old traders don't follow a mandated verbiage. So you did not explain your words from the very beginning as to what you mean what is how wide. Are you talking a how wide the sold call and sold put is? Or how wide the sold call is from the bought put and conversely the width between the sold call and bought call. Which one what? So it is like you guys are having a conversation that you let some people in the door half way through the conversation but did not explain w t F you guys are talking about..... And I have been trading years and literally will show my account at 18k to 23k a week and hold a full time job. 1.50 cents spread between what and what?????!!!! Wider wings what? What part of the wings wider?!!!!!

    • @siupakmd
      @siupakmd Місяць тому

      Yes, should have clarify these first at the very begining