Mark Blyth - Why People Vote for Those Who Work Against Their Best Interests
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- Опубліковано 15 гру 2017
- Recorded 10/11/2017
Mark Blyth's best seller Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea amzn.to/2Lcw556
Mark Blyth is a British political scientist from Scotland and a professor of international political economy at Brown University.
"It's much easier to fool people than it is for people to learn they have been fooled."
Mark Twain
Explains the last 4 years
@@charleskra explains the whole American democratic project.
OMG someone who actually makes sense and lays out the historical path that led to our terrible situation
Is this the first time you listen to Blyth? The guy is spot on on so many topics, it is scary...
@@nikzanzev2402 Be sure to also check out Chris Hedges.
P Dales: Seriously. This lecture should be required viewing for all high school students. Wish I'd found it sooner. When Blyth was talking about the leaked Podesta emails and the most often mentioned place in those documents, I just KNEW he'd say it was Martha's Vineyard. I lived there, year round, for 12 years and saw, with my own eyes, how the entire island was conquered by big money political players. All Democrats, by party designation, but all neo-feudal lords in actual practice. It's "Wall St. East" at this point. I once remarked to a documentary film maker, who was doing a short piece on the Vineyard in winter, "It takes a lot of money to be poor on Martha's Vineyard." ( in the late 80s ) These days it takes a whole lot more money just to become homeless and to starve there, even when you're working 60 or 70 hours a week ( this is quite common in the summer months ). 75 to 80% of all housing is vacant for 9 months out of the year, now. These buildings are "investments" for the extremely wealthy, they are not "homes". As well, the mass importation of cheap Brazilian laborers in the 90s and early 2000s basically created an island slave colony as it forced out island natives. Martha's Vineyard's primary export product, now, is its children. Very few people who are born there ( as my son was ) can afford to live there. I could go on but I think you get my drift. Blyth is spot on!
There are many like Mark Blyth, the trick is finding them. They´re not exactly welcome in the established media in the US or UK.
Remember; that "historical path" included elections and voting, and was guided by those two things.
I love the line when Mr. Blyth says Debt but placing it on people who can't afford to bear it makes you a predator brilliant line
Also: Mark Blythe is awesome. He has a gift of taking complicated economic ideas and presenting them to laypeople in ways we can understand.
True, Afterthought, but I don't like his attempts at humour. Just get on with Mr Blythe. The facts, man, the facts.
why the fck do they blank out Blyth"s swear words.? Watch tv, such is there! it maketh his points hard to follow!
Mark is both intelligent and wrong (or maybe misleading). His arguments are balanced and unique and for that, we should listen to what he has to say. Because he is enthusiastic about his conclusions doesn't make them correct. He does hit some points that are interesting and hold water but then he goes to conclusions where empirical evidence does not exclusively lead. Ph.D. Blythe completely dismisses the invisible hand of the market as if it is some hallucination and then he attributes failures of government interference into the marketplace as proof that the market needs intervention.
Also, his "explanation in ways we can understand" is actually far more complicated than almost any explanation I have ever heard. When an explanation is simple it can easily be repeated by the student without notes or pondering.
I fear this man to some extent. This man speaks like very good car salesmen, in my experience, the best car salesmen are sociopaths. He uses confusion, obfuscation, dismissals, and enthusiasm to gain notoriety.
If you want simple explanations of why Mark is sometimes wrong, take a look at all of these videos.
ua-cam.com/video/Jtxuy-GJwCo/v-deo.html
ua-cam.com/video/eJuA3zN2Tzw/v-deo.html
ua-cam.com/video/h3c2k94GcFU/v-deo.html
ua-cam.com/video/1p4UZRGZXw4/v-deo.html
ua-cam.com/video/3ugDU2qNcyg/v-deo.html
the reason the hand is invisible is because it is grabbing some politician by the balls.
IronSmith agreed. I like what he says but cannot figure out what his solution is. Which side he leans towards?
This is so dense, had to pause and rewind heaps. Lots of value here
He hides a lot of broad presumptions or assumptions with his speed of presentation without adequate defense.
@@simetry6477 And those things that he does not have time to cover in one short presentation, he goes into in other places. Like papers and books.
Not really, it hinges on a number of absurdities that this man believes in: (1) That interest is the "cost" of money as opposed to the time-value of any asset; (2) that interest is caused by wage prices as opposed to money creation by central banks; (3) that ALL single mothers (rather than at most 50% of them) are in that situation through no fault of their own and that pushing these personality-disordered cluster B people into the workforce will add value (rather than rob value through HR and morale costs); (4) that college is a better investment than DARPA (while DARPA is producing innovations such as the internet colleges are producing fuscia-haired xip-xap-xorp gendered communists who are only capable of whining, sabotage, and violence).
@@dowskivisionmagicaloracle8593 wow that was just a bunch of ideological vomit.
@@dowskivisionmagicaloracle8593 I'd like to see some evidence to back those claims please.
Chris Hedges, Abby Martin, Mark Blythe- these 3 people share the qualities of brilliance, moral courage &, a concern for humanity with the ability to call out the bullshit being foisted upon the people's of the lands and even offer workable solutions..... These people are who children should be taught to admire, these are people I respect more every time I hear them speak.
Today, I have heard the Past and Present as "my lyin' damned eyes" saw it for the past 25 years. More significant, is I that felt a twinge of Hope. For the past 25 years, there has not been a better way to devalue Time and totally waste it than to spend a minute on Hope, believing that somehow things will get better. This may be the most important 1 hour and 12 minutes in the past 25 years. Prof Mark Blyth is The Eastman Professor of Politics/Economics at Brown Univ. He doesn't hate. He has nothing to sell. He's not a pussy. But does maintain a palpable distaste for stupid ideas.. particularly those, which wage unnecessary and unrelenting economic pain on one people, by a powerful yet relatively few. There is something sublime about a self-confessed drinking Scotsman having the best eyesight. Few Presentations in the past many years has needed to go viral as much as this one. Cheers!
Everyone that wants to live has something to sell. When people have nothing to sell they get dead.
Mark sells enthusiastic speech. I am not sure how sincere he is about what he states just as I am not sure that a used car salesman believes what he states. Mark does bring up some interesting information but his conclusions are no more fact then are the conclusions of Karl Marx.
CW McClintock I couldn't have said it better. Best UA-cam video I have ever learned so much from.
"Your damn lyin' eyes" do a mean analysis, CW McClintock. I like how he includes spatial and cultural components.
You should check out Mark Fisher :)
This man believes in a number of absurdities: (1) That interest is the "cost" of money as opposed to the time-value of any asset; (2) that interest is caused by wage prices as opposed to money creation by central banks; (3) that ALL single mothers (rather than at most 50% of them) are in that situation through no fault of their own and that pushing these personality-disordered cluster B people into the workforce will add value (rather than rob value through HR and morale costs); (4) that college is a better investment than DARPA (while DARPA is producing innovations such as the internet colleges are producing fuscia-haired xip-xap-xorp gendered communists who are only capable of whining, sabotage, and violence).
As a german I like how he kind of nailed the part about germany. Only thing he got wrong: we have a weird way to count the unemployed. Unemployed peaople are only people who are available for the marked. So if they are sick or in a goverment payed course they count as employed. and thous do not count a unemployed. So there should be about 7-8 million people unemployed.
Other thing is that we have the biggest low pay sector. There are people saying: "the goverment says they have "created" 1.5 million new jobs. Well I have to do 3 of them".
There are people who can not afford their life from their full time jobs. The the minimum per hour payment was enroled in 2015 the bosses of the companies did not took this as a chance to pay there emploees good, instead they took it as a challenge of "how to avoid this". The worst of are emploees of the postal services. The used to be emploees of the state. Now the guy who brings you the stuff from Amazon is his own business and the owner of the truck he uses and gets payed per package and not per hour. He does not gets compensated when he is sick or his truck is broken.
And all this happens while the main share-holders of BMW get 3 million € a day for doing nothing but owning the shares the got as a legacy...
Most countries tweak their numbers in similar ways. This isn’t unique to Germany.
I just love this guy. Very smart man and a credit to Scotland.
there is a long list of brilliant economists, since Adam Smith.... Mark must be the funniest of them all!
This absolutely should have been uploaded in HD!
My only real complaint about Mark is all of his appearance are a technical debacle. This is actually the best his mic ever sounded. Often there's a bunch of feedback, not loud enough, or a lot of popping.
Mark Blyth is able to transform the complexity of the world economy into an informative and entertaining lecture. I love all his talks. A true Genius. Thanks to Scotland for producing such a cool dude.
Mark puts statistics into human terms.
Better than ever. Blyth has added a few simplified explanations to terms and concepts to make this lecture accessible to an even broader audience. Many laywomen/men are mystified by "leverage", "assets versus liabilities", etc.
Damn right, don't piss off Canadians. Politeness is just repressed anger ready to burst.
"if you're leading to someone who you know can't pay back, you're a predator !"
gold there :)
Fantastic lecture. Just fantastic. Thanks for posting
Thank you for putting this video on UA-cam !!! I hope that the new EDUCATION will be by your texts to your family and friends. We need to show them the graphs from this video.
Thanks for posting this :D
I'm putting this guy on my people who are awesome and who I also met through the Jimmy Dore Show list! Right now it's Dr. Richard Wolff and Mark Blyth.
I have listened to several of Mark's lectures, and I think this one is the best. He actually proposes some policies, and his replies to the questions are particularly incisive. 45:12 re Facebook and Google: finally the chickens are coming home to roost; Mark knows all this.
brilliant man. makes sence out of this chaos
The real question is why we don't get to vote against candidates? If a candidate has more votes against than they do for, they should be disqualified.
What a great idea
That IS a VERY interesting idea.
I stopped the video at 1:00 hr. mark.....WTF Mr. Blyth where have you been all my youtube life? I CAN honestly thank the youtube algorithim enough for steering you my way! Beautifully cited work...wish to call you my friend"! Genuine and accurate. Admire your ability to put my thoughts for the last 10 years in eloquent prose! Why we don't have more economist, political experts in the field is beyond comprehension! We have a 5:1 ratio of lawyers in politics which has decimated this country! America recovery has hope with both democrats and republicans in your corner. Cheers! In awe and it's about time. Damn am I behind the intellectual class!
Excellent talk correct on so many levels, thoroughly enjoyed it .
Wow, this guy needs to heard more
1:08:40 "Economics is always expressed in a cultural frame."
I've met a lot of very bright and brilliant people from around the world. But most seem to operate with blinders. They don't work in cubicles but they might as well. Once in a while someone like Blyth comes along who easily peers behind the curtain, who sees the emperor clearly has no clothes, and I wonder what makes this possible and how do I get it?
Excellent presentation, I have been wondering why these parties and leaders are so popular. This makes a lot of sense. We all need to start seeing the big picture presented here.
Fantastic presentation thanks for uploading.
If you cannot default on a debt, then is a tax.
Khaler Jex never a borrower or a lender be
What does it mean that you can't default on a student loan? because technically you can?...
@@lrm9298 you can't discharge it through bankruptcy.
Who else is here after Brexit slammed Corbynism?
#me too
@@brianmoran1196 ua-cam.com/video/KGuaoARJYU0/v-deo.html
Not Corbynism.
Corbyn.
And i think he played them all.
Wow. Wonderful presentation
I've enjoyed this lecture more than any other of his.
Capitalism today is the Lottery Shop economy... Nobody really wants the Lottery Shop closed because everyone dreams about winning one day. That's what it is - the Lottery Shop. Everyone hates and envies the winner who took their money, but don't you dare to close the shop! One day it must be me who is taking the jackpot! Don't take my dream away!
AlexthunderGnum - you sound hopeless. Only saps and losers think of it like you just described - being "rich" is an odd reason to do what we do to get along in this world..even in this country. Most people I know just want to live a decent life - if "money" and riches are your goal, that would explain why you sound so sad.
AlexthunderGnum - Wow! Finally, someone gets it! So many people really think they are going to win the lottery (whether literally or the capitalism lottery), so of course the wealthy need subsidization...
@@freeman7296he is not talking about himself. He is talking about a pervasive view of many people, and he is correct.
@@shooter7a i wouldnt say its the view of the majoirty just rhe view od those in control as they have captial and dont want to lose it as captial is power and influnence in a captialist system
@@randyozaeta1026 you are confused as what capitalism is. Western countries have some capitalism, a lot of socialism and corporations. Capitalism is not when you pay off government officials or politicians for favours to gain an advantage over your competitors.
Tony Blair has the most to answer for. Not only did he claim to be of the left. He supported the rich and he enabled the Bush war in Iraq.
The big secret of the center left and right is that they both have the same foreign policy - liberal internationalism.
Yes and no - Boris Johnson wants to continue with the same failed neoliberal policies of Thatcher and Blair (minus the European Union which Thatcher essentially created and Blair, as an economic Thatcherite, loved)
So he wants to blame the failure of the polices which he supports as a failure of "The Left" - but wants to continue with the same policies.
Lucky for him he's got tribalism on his side
Holy shit this man needs to run for president. That's who we need now. We don't need professional politicians, we need honest, truth-telling economists.
We need leaders who will stand up against neoliberalism and the globalising, privatising behemoth that destroys economies for the 99%!
We need more people explaining information like this and a lot more people paying attention and taking it in rather than p*ssing about on facebook, twitter, instagram and similar
Some of us who piss about on FV and Twitter are discussing exactly this ......
Love this guy. Explains economics in a way that even an idiot like me can understand!
Blyth is always entertaining and clear. Thanks for this
Brilliant analysis! Thank you.
Wow, excellent. Thank you.
I think you'll find it was Harold MacMillan that said 'Britain has never had it so good'. Which is what the Tories ALWAYS say.
They're not saying it now! Now it's "10 years' time...."
Interesting, I’m pretty conservative. One thing I’ve learned over the years, you have to have the ability to tweak your philosophy. Especially because circumstances never stay the same. For example I thought there was no such thing as a bad tax cut. I was wrong now we are on the low side of the sweet spot.
100% correct!! The economy changes! It goes through structural changes and long term cycles. Examples - The best and really the only parallel to 2007-2008 was the start of the Great Depression. The policies that worked in 1984 and beyond, would not have worked in 1960. There is NO parallel for the 2010+ period. We are in uncharted waters.... Etc. Etc.
As for tax cuts, I always laugh when people say "tax cuts boost the economy". My answer is then - "So you want larger deficits". They always say "NO...I am fiscally responsible". So then I say "Oh...if you are in favor of a tax cut, then you must want government spending to be cut to match the drop in tax revenue". They always say "YES!". I then ask - "How will that increase the size of the economy?"
This is where the Conservative fantasy, and exasperation is always revealed. The statement is always something to the effect of "If you leave my money in my hands, I will do a better job using it than the government". The only problem with this theory is that it is self serving bunk. For well over a century, economic data, economic studies, policy changes, they have all shown that where money is spent makes no difference. All that matters is that IT IS SPENT (moral hazard arguments aside)
What does this mean? Let's use the most cliched example - the welfare mother. Say you are paying here far more than she "deserves". How is that hurting the economy? What is she going to do with the money she gets?
1. She pays the rent. So that money ends up in the landlords hand, and likely in turn get spent.
2. She buys groceries. So that money ends up in the grocery stores bank account, which they in turn spend.
3. Maybe she buys some clothes that are nicer than she "deserves". That money ends up in the hands of the clothing boutique.
4. She pays the utilities....
5. That is it...all the money spent. We know that for lower income people, THIS is a reality. They spend every dime they have, every month, just to get by.
So all that money MOVES. It is called the velocity of money. What matters is that the money gets injected into the economy, and moves. Where that initial injection occurs does not matter. Credible economics data has shown this over and over.
So lets go back to the idea of a tax cut, with spending offsets, and the impact on the economy. Let say we cut your taxes by $5K a year, and then cut the welfare queens payments by $5K a year. Here is the key. This is almost certain to DECREASE economic activity. Honestly ask yourself this question. If you get a $5K tax cut this year, what are you going to do with the money? If you spend every single dime, the net impact on the economy is ZERO. This is because the money was being spent before, it is being spent now. The same spending, different entry point. So if you do not spend every dime, you are actually pulling money out of the economy in the immediate term, and parking it. In situations like we have today, with weak systemic demand, tax cuts with matching spending offsets actually DECREASE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
This is why even when the GOP is in charge, when they cut taxes, they never decrease spending. What they KNOW...and what they say, are not the same. They know that if they cut spending to match, the economy will suffer, and the tax cut lie will be exposed.
Great lecture. I would love to hear him at length on Canada’s strategic and tactical choices.
Brilliant, Outstanding, etc.
Considering your conclusion regarding policy recommendations, Dr Blyth, I'll stick with the 'populist' Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn thank you very much.
Sanders is a satanist making up stories about russia, God won't allow this clown to get near the presidency, Corbyn another liberal muslim lunatic
Fortunately - or unfortunately depending on your point of view - we have the DNC for that job.
They lack the omnipresence and omnipotence of god, but they have the advantage of actually existing
Another Christian warmonger....you are all insane
T Castell ... If you watched the whole thing through, you would know Blyth is in the Bernie camp.
Hoops590 "god" lolololol! I'll be laughing for awhile at that pile of horseshit.
I couldn't follow the narrative but I appreciate how he affirms my preconceived notions.
Why did people do X? "Because they're morons". When you call people morons, even if you think you're joking, your destiny is failure. Never underestimate the wisdom of crowds.
I cannot believe I never new of this guy until yesterday. His economics mirror my thoughts for improvement. His analysis of populism is insightful. I am left not quite left populist because if I prioritize top values held by majority of left populist, I am anti-nationalism but bottom of priorities, so I don't want nationalism but I'll deal with it if I had to. I am only anti-capitalism in current neo-liberal and conservative style capitalist systems, although I am skeptical of capitalism period (but I don't have much knowledge of economics yet) being anti-nationalism makes me see entire globe as my shared population and shared land. Although since I am not a fan of Neo-liberal capitalism, I am against multi-national corporations profiting off globalization/global exploitation as if committing globalist rape.
I agree with everything Mark said here, economics are a major factor in populism. But, when it comes to Scotland I think you also need to throw in some old fashioned English hatred.
But that's the same with Brexit. Old fashioned English hatred of the "bloody Krauts and Frogs" - that's what populism plays on. It takes the rational economic grievances and merges them with the emotive cultural ones.
Hey Mark, I've got a great idea - we close our doors in Europe, for example Germany - we die slowly off to 60 million. Less CO2 emissions, less people owning land, sinking prices for the few young people left. Demographic experts somehow always assume population will drop to 0 without any evidence - it could also stabilize in another equilibrium, maybe around 50-60 million.
We get a better resource management, less CO2 emissions etc. and if we go bankrupt - who cares, default, have an economic crisis, again less CO2, wait a few years, it will be over sooner or later. Save the planet, save the culture, downsize. Don't artificially try to keep up the population. It's time to downsize. Japan does it the right way - Europe shouldn't fill the places we lose through birth rates. We should accept that we overpopulated and be happy that we are downsizing, instead of seeing a country as some sort of factory without a soul, culture and tradition that we can replace workers in like it a sort of human resource to maximize profits. Is that really your vision?
I'm not European but I think that will be absolutely fantastic. We can do that with every place, Africa, Asia, the Americas. And then establish a system of pure trade. African countries in my view have so much gold, Coltan etc might want to come with a single currency backed on gold and every trade we do will solely be on our and our terms only. Similar with what Europe will do with her own resources. I like your idea. We can reset the scale. We will have to purge the continent of all leeches of companies and countries draining our resources and propping dictatorships and establish a new order. You are a brilliant man
Good plan, this humorist does not really get it. He is good at presenting the problem, but somehow his solution is completely disconnected from it. If all the profits go to a few people, and they need to bring workers from abroad to keep that system going, and those people upset the population, there is only one solution, all of his solutions are small short term bribes that won't solve the actual problem. Quite a sleigh of hand he did there. The only price is the bank's assets, which is a scam from his own admission. He seems to be doing fine though, so no surprise he would want to keep this going, he is paid to do just that.
This has been my idea too! Degrow the population, degrow the economy, live lives of meaning and beauty on nature and community
@@tescheurich How will we "degrrow" the population if we are to live lives of "community"? Whose lives will be forfeit? Sounds like Nazism.
@@oldishandwoke-ish1181 Thank you, Godwin's law had been suspiciously absent. No one's life is forfeit, you... Emphatic little overarguer, you. Less babies for the next 2 centuries, starting with Africa and India. Undershoot replacement rate, just like Europe is doing. Once we hit a nice level for good lives, say 500 million, which I think we can do in about 250 years, re-subsidize and culturally valorize 3-3.5 births for every woman who wants children.
Mark, haven't emailed you in a bit, however, still operating Our Revolution Southern Oregon promoting the Sanders' agenda. One of my favorite quotes: "In the Soviet Union, capitalism replaced communism; in the U.S., capitalism replaced democracy."
Everyone: All politics are local...get involved!
WOW such a great , funny and super smart person ! With great points
@TomatoPa
It all depends on what you mean by socialism, a label used for a lot, Bernie Sanders is called a socialist.
What most people mean is some sort of mixed economy but with strong regulation reigning in the worst of predatory capitalism and strong social safety nets, unions and less inequality in society.
With this definition the US have been really good historically but have changed drastically the last 50 years, for the worse.
Well the downfall started before but Clinton put the nail in the coffin.
As an example is how Sweden handled the banking crisis, the state took ownership of the banks (simplified) and managed the crisis well without tax payer bailouts.
When asked about this "Swedish model" the answer was "we just did what the US did last time".
Another interesting example is how Island managed it... do not protect high leverage Banks lock them up and regulate it.
They made a fast recovery, compare that the Greece...
Greece is all about protecting miss placed lending, let the creditors burn, that is why they charge interest rates.
The Greek bailout was not about Greece it was about putting Greece more in debt and making sure Deutche Bank did not go "Belly Up"
This is some seriously good shit!
Brilliant man!
Wonderful and persuasive acount of 1945 - date; wonderful, because comprehensive and accurate! And the point that people have a right to assess their own 'interests' without being condescended to , is one that cost Hilary her next job - because she denied it. PS - buy the book! ('Austerity ... '.)
"Never had it so good" was Macmillan not Wilson.
25:00 financial engineering
Mark,
What would you have recommend the Us do to deal with inflation in the 70s?
that's his best and most coherent spiel so far.
At about 34 minutes with the discussion of Berlin, think about his discussion of this in terms of say Alabama, Mississippi or Arkansas who were big recipients of money and assistance who must see immigrants as the problem or in a twisted way that liberals are the problem. Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas are our East Germany, our East Berlin.
The people who are the most anti immigrant tending to be people with the least amount of contact with them should be a problem in Blyths analysis, but he doesn't seem to realize it. If his argument is that Trump voters have real grievances and that you shouldn't talk down to the enthusiastic Trump voters in Alabama; but then he turns around and admits that the social topics like immigration that they shout about aren't really impacting them. If many of the concerns of Trump voters are fictional, how can you turn around and say that they are still voting in their vest interest. Sure they may feel like they are making the correct choice...but they are wrong, and coddling their tender feelings isn't going too make it any better.
In the area of deindustrialization he doesn't have it correct saying that the loss of industry was already happening from northern states to southern state because of right to work laws, etc. There is a lot more to that, but I won't go into that now. If you look at the charts of US manufacturing jobs, you can see that it was trending upward till 1997 or 1998 then started going down. However, the overall trend was that jobs were decreasing but not by a great rate. In the loss of manufacturing jobs, the US still had over 17M and the trend of decline to 16M would have happened maybe 2025. There should not have been a big dislocation that we had 2000-2001 onward.
There were changes in the tax laws in 1997 that changed things, and there was the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the allowing of China into the WTO helped to deindustrialize things in the US. I’ll speculate that the Bush tax cuts and depreciations didn't help in that the industries took the accelerated depreciation and moved their manufacturing. One of the results in the loss of those manufacturing jobs meant that manufacturers didn't have to increase pay or offer decent wages for a long time. In other words, there were too many qualified people and not enough jobs from the changes in trade, banking and taxation law that foments the loss of manufacturing.
While technically the immigrants may not have had as much impact as it was thought by blue collar people to be and the surplus workers didn't help things. NAFTA was seen as another nail in the coffin though the WTO probably was a bigger issue. The country went from 1997 from 17.5M manufacturing jobs to 11.5M manufacturing jobs by 2010.
Here is the problem: the only understandings of economics for most blue collar workers are what they hear on AM radio and watching FOX news. If they do read, it is like Ayn Rand and the John Birch Society books. Beyond that being a conservative is a social club of sorts in that what conservatives believe is being anti-abortion, pray to Jesus, join the NRA, salute the flag and that government and taxes are bad. In the South and where Southerner migrated after the Civil War is a lot of Neo-Confederate anti-federalist stuff that the transnational corporation love, too. They have no understanding that things like the Chicago School of Economic is held holy by both parties and that those ideas are what is causing their loss in wages, standard of living, lowering of educational standards, reduction in longevity, use of opioids, and whatever other ill.
Jacob Prescott ... or maybe they see what's happened in the UK and see the same thing starting to form in the United states. which I have to say, seems perfectly reasonable to me
The "You've never had it so good" quote @ 6 mins was Prime Minister Harold Macmillian in 1957, not Harold Wilson who was a later PM.
This was the BEST answer about brexit ive ever seen ahahahahhaha love it! Need to buy his book!
WOW! I landed on this page by accident and was just about to click away when I started listening to the speaker's introduction, and I thought "Yes. This guy knows what he's talking about!" There was a book many years ago titled "What's the Matter with Kansas?" (I don't remember who the author was, although I suspect he didn't live in Kansas), and I remember that the entire proposition drove me ape shit. The idea that if the people of Kansas or Wyoming or Arkansas voted differently from people in NY or CA or MA, they somehow weren't smart enough to realize that they were voting against their own interests.
the author is Thomas Frank, and, if I remember correctly, grew up and lived in Kansas.
This talk is exactly the tone and approach we need at this time in history, whether he is correct on absolutely every point he makes or not. Acknowledging that folks who voted for Trump and Brexit A) had a RIGHT to do that and B) had a very good reason for wanting to communicate that, "Hey, there is something really wrong here guys!" There is!
I think Bernie Sanders should be, and may have been POTUS, had Democrats not muddled up the primaries and let the People have their say. Chances are that would have made little difference. We'll never know. But his message was on the money, literally and figuratively.
What's wrong with the Bernieite movement was that people splintered off and didn't follow their leader to the end - as he told them to vote for Clinton! He endorsed her. I was a Bernie fan. I voted for Clinton. He told us to!
That's beside the point. The point is something really is not adding up and practically everyone knows it. Either you're paying attention and you're a progressive and you're mad as Hell, or you're a Christian or a conservative and you are driven by those motivations and you are passionate, too, or you are a "Blue" or "Red" fan sitting it out until election time, pretending these elections are a game show where one side wins a zero-sum game, and it may as well be Super Bowl Sunday for you. You don't care about policy, you don't care about the economy: your guy is winning or losing and damnit that matters a whole lot until three days later when you are back to sharing bullshit like cat photos on your smart phone.
It is the latter group with whom I am frustrated. I DO respect Christians and conservatives, liberals, honest people who care about something and vote for it in an honest attempt to make the world a better place as they see it. I do NOT respect sideline tribalists who simply paint their face blue or red one day every four years and go back to being fucking zombies again.
Pay attention!
Mark. Come home and be Prime Minister. Seriously.
Growing up throughout the 70s & early 80s I recall my mother accusing some of being “ Swanky “ or “ Big-heads “ , these people I was taught to mistrust or appreciate weren’t what they pretended to be. How odd that working in a ‘ thriving ‘ part of southern england, one NEVER hears or reads these terms yet I know “ Swankers “ are very real as I issue invoices to these Mercedes drivers whose friends confide me with “/ they’re struggling at the moment “ when I’ve queried why my bill for 79 quid is still outstanding. Love from wessexshire 🏴ps £79 to unblock their toilet.
I'm not German but I have a tremendous appreciation for Schadenfreude.
40:00 baby boomers own 80% of financial assets
your bernie video was awesome
1% of baby boomers own 79% of financial assets. (I maybe exaggerate )
Hey Millenials who still have not learned much due to disinterest and youthful distractions.... the changes that created the world today mostly happened long before we had any political power. So if you can not fix the world by the time you are middle aged, then you created that fucked up world too. No blaming anyone before you since you refuse to accept the reality today.
Stefan Kosikowski if they are at where they are because of past events/conditions that formed them, then so are newer generations subject to the same laws. 3³+4³+5³=6³ each layer builds on what was before it. Seriously peeps should read more Plato
What Blyth said was "80% of assets are held by 20% of Baby Boomers." Are you really blaming the 80% of Baby Boomers who DON’T hold those assets?
8 individuals own more wealth than HALF of the world’s population.
www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2017-01-16/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world
The richest 1% own more wealth than the other 99%.
www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2015-01-19/richest-1-will-own-more-all-rest-2016
This has NOTHING to do with age. It has EVERYTHING to do with CLASS.
One of the best explanations on why Capitalism is a totally failed and shit economic system! Well done Prof Blyth!
Failed? Compared to what other successful system?
A point about automation, the initial costs of automation is high. Which is why it hasn't happened yet. In the university of Manchester they have a robot that reads whitepapers, forms a hypothesis, constructs experiments and performs them and then generates a whitepaper. Human labor will be made redundant, not anytime soon though. The constraint of computation power is a big factor.
Great talk! Will be looking to his writing closely. Thanks for posting.
I thought Bernie would be too old, but it's Sept 2019 and he looks great!
In more ways than one, Tulsi looks better.
Here after his heart attack-minor as it was
Blade RIP tulsi is not a progressive and has no adherence to Medicare for all and has scant economic policy. Just don’t trust that woman
And how am I supposed to vote for my interests? Both parties are the same, they just say different things. They do the same things.
But no no, explain to me why I vote against my interests. Why do some rich people vote to increase the taxes on themselves? Ask a more condescending question why don't you.
Robert; American's Republican party just voted to give you less of the money supply. They did this so they could give it to the people who already own most of the Money ! In that light tell me both parties are the same . The Dems fucked up by not electing Bernie as their standard bearer .
That's why you become an activist and actually.. you know.. do something about it.
I do not live in America, but I would never vote a democrat again. My thought is simple. Voting for anyone, no matter who in order for me to keep an Social Justice Warrior and Far left people from getting any power. I literally would vote for absolutely anyone to keep this guys away from power.
First, you assume that I agree with everything Vaptsarov and Botev stand for and second I do not see how they equate. Botev and Vaptsarov are great, true, but not infallible.
As in regards to the left being the way to go, I can see that. Hate on everything ,restrict all speak, go after painters and writers and comedians, call everyone Racist/Sexist/Homophobe, while you yourself are one, attacking all liberal values possible, the enlightenment and science. Going around saying how you stand for minorities, women and children when you don't care about either one of those. Going with Anarcho-Communist or Fascist values to put restrictions on people and attack. Restricting people's freedom as much as possible. Demonizing half the population and never doing anything that has any value. Only demanding and wanting and entitlements. That's all I see from the left. I am 24 years old. I started working when I was 13 and that's when I got interested in politics. For those 11 years, this is what I observed from the left. I used to be one of the Left, but not anymore. The left has nothing to do with Botev and Vaptsarov that wanted freedom above all else.
Wow! Why have I not heard of this guy before?
Is there a source to obtain Mark’s slides (other than hunting down primary sources)?
Greece should have left Brussels (The EU controllers) long ago and gave them a big finger. Austerity for a whole country to save the bankers some money is stupid
And yet austerity in the U.K. is not being lifted post-Brexit ......
Thought provoking talk. However, I don't think that Mark's suggestion of education, childcare and health provision as the solution to populism is sound, as these are commonplace in Europe. We also don't have an explanation why college educated females in the US voted for Trump. Or why the wealthy in South East England voted for Brexit. So i'm still to find a comprehensive summary of the current collective madness!
Education is a solution if one was educated by Mark. But Unfortunately Mark clones are non existent in UK classrooms and would not be encouraged anyway.
It’s a damn shame Mark Blyth can’t run for President of the United States. He’d turn this sinking ship around in no time.
I couldn't agree more.
A nation of sheep will soon have a government of wolves...
You do not have to have a nation full of sheep to still have a government of wolves. The wolves have always run the world's nations governments.
"A *British* Political Scientist from Scotland"? I dinnae think so! Away wi you!
He was born in Scotland which is still in Britain. He is now also an US citizen as far as I know
My best friend is scottish and she corrects me every single time that I say "you brits..." 😂 I think that's what was meant
18:40 is the most important bit of the whole talk.
id like to hear a discussion between M Blyth and Y Varoufakis
Em, jus' a wee comment, hen, apart from brilliant presentation - ye got yer Harolds mixed up. It was Harold McMillan, arch-Tory, who coined the very American-sounding phrase 'You've never had it so good.' I remember it well, being about 14 at the time. time. Harold Wilson (Labour) was next-but-one Prime Minister. H. Wilson's deathless phrase (that died in a week) was 'the white heat of the technological revolution' with which he'd re-invigorate the UK industrial base. It, too, died shortly after.
With yet another dreary Tory, David Cameron, yo could rightly associate the phrase, 'You've never been had so good' - his - yes, his - Brexit Referendum.
I wish he'd realise that there is a left-wing case for Brexit
I think he did on Jimmy Dore.
It’s anti progressive for Scotland or England to stay
There is, but fat chance getting is realised bearing in mind who bankrolled Brexit....
That was a refreshing lesson on world business economics. Spot on, loved the questions and answer period.
32:50-46:26 For the Cliff's Notes version.
lmao the awkwardly muted responses when he dares to poke at the phoniness of the tech sector's utopian self-image (e.g. his barb at Musk and the privatization of Puerto Rico's energy grid) and suggests that war with China might be a counterproductive thing
American liberals, ladies and gentlemen
The Democratic Party is not a peace party, never has been, although it sends out the appropriate dogwhistles to certain constituencies when election season comes around. Fact is, both of Wall Street's parties are fully committed to war, austerity, social inequality, espionage, etc.
The whole kerfluffle over supposed Russian hacking, the saber-rattling with North Korea, the pivot to Asia under Obama and now Trump's "getting tough" on China, all points to the US ruling elite's explicit fingering of China and Russia as geostrategic and economic rivals (more China for the latter).
Given all of this, the nervous reaction of the upper-middle class/upper class audience to Blyth's points is a manifestation of the social pyschology of these affluent strata who are among the few on this planet who stand to gain from US imperialist hegemony.
Sabre rattling is just basic psychology. Mostly it avoids war
You just described neoliberalism and no one champions that more than conservatives, except for those liberals, because they're the same fucking thing.. Your identity politics is exposing your illiteracy, dood.
Liberals don’t wanna fight China beyond this trade war. But they do want Russia or Iran. Because that’s what both Republican and Democrat establishment wants. It’s why the DNC just screwed Tulsi out of her debate spot. I’m not surprised liberals haven’t noticed. But they should be rioting in the streets for pulling another Bernie/DNC shenanigan. The left has a real problem with being ignorant of their lying media sources, if they bother to keep up with politics at all. It’s why the left can’t debate, so they scream and shut down talks. The modern left has no real principals and it easy to poke holes in their ideas because they often conflict with others. Their foundations are built upon quicksand. And they won’t wake up until the shit hits the fan. There will be blood and poverty before it’s all over and it saddens me because I once identified with the left before I saw the disparity between the ideas and what politicians did in practice. Now I know the only good government is a small or dead government.
@@forcedanonymity1791 Gabbard fans have certainly noticed the DNC's tactics.
I don't really know what a liberal is, the word is used so much it's lost meaning.
People that identify as right-wing; what kind of system do they support? Sure, they don't like people that look different, and they don't like social security. But what else? Are they for a libertarian system? If so, they must be against the system that the US has always implemented; massive government intervention in the economy. Are they for protectionism, ie against global trade? Do they want an economy where people with "simple jobs" can live on their wage?
I agree 100% thats so true..
Not all Canadians love Nafta. We lost alot of manufacturing jobs too.
I voted for brexit but I didn't believe any of the nonsense in the press. Do better Mark.
Hes a out of touch expat
52:40 what happens when robots take all jobs
I think you might not be seeing all the possibilities here. More technology and AI will indeed affect us in a negative way as long as all the beneficiaries from those technologies are a very small group of shareholders. I think Mr Blyth is saying to us that such situation cannot last for much long as either right wing or left wing populism will eventually take over. I think the rude awakening we have on store is not a technological one but a social one. The poor increase in number and misery, the middle class dwindles as they drown in debt and higher cost for all important things like healthcare, housing, transportation, etc. Cops and soldiers are from poor and middle class background as well. At some point we are all going to look around and ask ourselves why the fuck do we even take orders from these rich old pigs.The owner class is perfectly aware of this which is why they try to divide us by race, gender, and social standing. At the end their efforts would be wasted though because even the worse kind of fascist that comes to power would have to end up taking money and power away from the rich if he/she is actually serious about keeping promises and remain in power.
My problem with the notion that "there will be new jobs" is that it's ignoring a crucial part of the job-automation flowchart. And that's the part where new capital, freed up by automation reducing costs, goes to employing new people for new jobs automation can't do yet.
Because here's the thing. In reality, that flow isn't unilaterally directed to new human jobs. To jobs that machines can't do. Some of it always goes to yet more machine jobs. Now in the past, automation has only encompassed a very, very narrow range of job types. And factory-style automation develops very slowly, with the entire automation chain basically having to be redesigned for each new application. Which mean that the amount of new jobs being funneled to machines is actually very tiny. It's basically negligible in economic models. You can ignore it and pretend that all new jobs are just Not Machine Jobs, by default.
That's no longer the case. If robots can only infringe on 5% of all human labor, then yeah, at most they'll recapture 5% of that new job flow (and practically, much less). But when robots can do arbitrary, novel physical labor? And when the same program can be copy-pasted for everything from janitor robots to road-work robots to trail-maintenance robots to burger-flipping robots? That type of labor is a non-negligible fraction of new jobs.
New jobs that technology creates are not, I cannot emphasize this enough, they are *not* inherently jobs that robots cannot do. They are statistically, in aggregate, non-robot jobs because the robots of the past have been able to do so little. But freed up capital is applied to whatever is profitable. If 95%+ types of labor are types of labor only humans can do, then you can approximate capital reinvestment as "there will be new jobs (for people)". If 50%+ types of labor are types of labor that can be automated however, then freed up capital will not be exclusively reinvested in humans. Half of it will be reinvested in whomever owns the robots and that capital will just vanish from the working class sector of the economy. There will be news jobs ... but only half of them will go to humans.
Humans do not inherently capture new jobs like Mark Blyth says. Humans capture whatever fraction of new work that happens to be work only humans can do. And *that* percentage is changing. It is becoming non-negligible in economic models and economists need to wake up to that fact.
Nice discussion here. Another remark is that some people are already talking about AI not just creating new jobs, but freeing humans from work performed in the form of wage slavery. This could be a huge boon to society, freeing up millions of people to do what they really love, if we manage it properly. If hard-AI is actually possible (so the robots to look after baby boomers will be possible), and we get to it soon, then something like a UBI might result --- socializing the return from robots --- which could free up people so that real economic productivity will increase massively. You have an AI doing some menial work that you might once have had to get a wage for, and you get to do something more creative. It is a conservative (false) meme that people give hand-outs will not work. That meme only really applies to the laziest "drop-outs" who are not a very significant fraction of society, or for the super inherited rich who get too lazy and stupid to know what to do productively with their time, but in fact even that is not so true, plenty of entitled royals do great work, for no wage. They of course get something like a super basic income! Trouble is that is not universal!
Unfortunately, my generation, the X Gen, seems to have a lot of greedy ass-holes just as the baby boomers, and they seem to be the ones who get into positions of power, same as always. So it might be the Millenials who get to actually fix society, who will actually care of their elderly as well as leaving enough for their children. They might not even have a choice about it short of full scale free market anarchy, which might be the end of us all, even before we nuke ourselves. I'm exaggerating of course, but seriously, it might take a few more neoliberal economic crises of ever worsening scale before some generation bites the political bullets and implements a proper democratic society.
BTW: looking at Greece's experience, the Brits were probably sensible in their vote for Brexit for monetary reasons. But they did not vote that way for those reasons! They Brexited for completely stupid reasons. That's the irony of Brexit.
I work in AI and I think his take on the AI revolution is disturbingly naive. Yes, robots that take care of the elderly better than humans haven't been invented yet, but there are several labs working on this exact application, and it is only a matter of time before it becomes a reality. And in the ten years since I finished my MSc in the subject, applications like machine learning, computer vision and robotics have actually leapt forward at a pace that far exceeded my expectations. Most of that has been due to only minor improvements in algorithms that have existed since the 60s, and, probably more importantly, the increasing availability of parallel computing through GPUs. And the pace of research is only accelerating due to these successes. Anyone who thinks that this will not have major economic and socio-political consequences over the next few decades is probably not very well informed about the field.
Jelle Kastelein Yeah. Oh, and if you think parallel computing has been a big improvement, wait until you see the stuff us quantum photonics people are working on.
(Turns out the weighting of bipartite graphs, which is classically #p-hard, is a problem which can be solved in polynomial time with boson sampling.)
Highly knowledgeable and great presentation, but in essence Blyth is simply (and rightly) arguing for the return of the European style Social Democracies with mixed economies where certain vital functions can and must ONLY be fulfilled by the state, and which global neoliberalism, pursued in the interests of the few, has systematically help to dismantle for profit since the 1980s.
Took great exception to his grandstanding calling those who voted for Brexit as 'morons' though as some of his own pre-referendum pronouncements were a little more ambivalent and a good deal less cock sure about the EU and its future shall we say.
To be fair, he did explain why he called them morons, and also implied that he considered the leaders more moronic than the followers.
my view the era of workers' paradise was the confluence of three independent events. 1. USSR, China, and Castro: elites were shitty scared that communism was seducing the working class, and the social democrats convinced the bankers and industrialists that without strong unions and safety nets, commies are coming for their assets; 2. Education: the experiment of mass educating everybody in society created opportunity and competence, you do not have to go abroad to bring engineers or dentists; 3. Nationalism: markets were controlled, politics were national, trade was regulated. rest are minor factors. love Mark!
If you hate socialism please stop driving on public roads. Public roads are socialist.
If the enlightenment was a person, it would be you.
If you are a socialist please stop buying food. Food prices in our society are determined primarily by market forces.
Nobody is permitting you to try the system you'd like with food ergo by your logic you should opt out of eating.
Incidentally, not only the logic but the facts are faulty: roads in many countries are built by private contractors. For less money. And higher quality.
If you are an idiot it would be you. Market forces should not determine the food prices.
Philip Baldock, there is a good chance, you are wrong. European agriculture is heavily subsidised. Parts of the US agriculture is also heavily subsidised. I just don't know whether food production is part of it.
Roads and highways are in much better condition in Republican majority states. The worst urban sprawl, potholes, and gridlock is in Democrat majority states.
M Byth has changed his view on BREXIT. He gave a completely different answer a few months ago, and one which made a lot more sense. His lightweight new response does not make any sense.
Tailored for his audience of libtards
I assumed his nonsensical misrepresention of the Brexit debate was due to ex-pat ignorance, but perhaps it is deliberate. Where I think his ideological blinkers really destroyed his credibility was his completely untruthful claim that continued immigration (mainly of unskilled people) is required to maintain the economy. His promotion of a classic cheap-labour Tory lie puts him firmly in the neoliberal globalist camp, dispite his pretence of caring about the working class.
Brian Fullerton - libtard. Aren't you tired of that? Please come up with a new, and more original, insult.
Toby - I think you need to provide a reason here. Blyth's point is that the birthrate in Europe can't sustain the ageing population which seems a incontestable fact to me.
Martyn - Firstly, in this video Blyth worries about automation making many people unemployed in the future with for example self-driving cars. You can't simultaneously claim too many workers after too few jobs is a looming problem and also that we need immigation to make up for a lack of workers. Secondly he says population decline means "the economy's shrinking" (36:10) implying reduced living standards without immigration. That is a common but innumerate and wrong argument conflating gross and per-capita economic activity. Thirdly he bemoans an older demography. People living healthier and longer, even with no automation, does not mean reduced living standards unless you reduce the proportion of their productive life. In fact it's the reverse: a longer-living population is a sign of higher living standards and a reason to celebrate. Fifthly if for some reason you want an absolute increase in population just make a more family-friendly tax and social system, no need for immigration. The only justification for net immigration is for a country with a poor higher education system that wants to grow it's tech sector quickly,. It should use a points-based system to attract highly qualified people. Net immigration of unqualified people is not generally beneficial.
Is there a higher quality version of this somewhere?
Have any of you actually watched this? Thank You Mark Blyth. So spot on. So just what I need to express what I am thinking and feeling. YES Why do we vote against our best interests!?
That's an easy question to answer, *MONEY.*
(43:21) This is the meat of his message. Invest in your people...