Mark Blyth-Debunking Myths About The End of the US Dollar Dominance
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- Опубліковано 6 чер 2024
- In this episode of Let's Just Talk with Hammi, renowned economist Mark Blyth dispels common myths and misconceptions surrounding the decline of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. He challenges conventional economic wisdom and provides insights on the potential implications of this shift on the global economy.
Guest Bio:
Mark Blyth is a political economist whose research focuses upon how uncertainty and randomness impact complex systems, particularly economic systems, and why people continue to believe stupid economic ideas despite buckets of evidence to the contrary. He is the author of several books, including Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2002, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford University Press 2013, and The Future of the Euro (with Matthias Matthijs) (Oxford University Press 2015)
#USdollar #currencyshift #MarkBlyth #USD #economics #globalization #globalcurrency #factvsfiction #politics #foryou #equality #internationalrelations #fyp #ExpertInsights #DebunkingMyths #ConventionalWisdom #Let'sJustTalkWithHammi
Excellent interview
Thank you for watching Bill!
Blyth is a treasure. This may be his best interview, great job covering so many interesting topics so quickly.
Thank you for tuning in! We appreciate your viewership!
Blyth is the kind of bloke I'd have a few beers with as he put the world to rights.
Please don't cut the video so often, and please apply a denoiser to the audio before uploading. Makes a huge difference to viewers.
Thank you so much for this feedback! The only cuts we made were to the “ums” and “pauses” but we see how that makes the video choppy. And moving forward we will apply denoiser to our videos. Thank you again for your constructive feedback!!!
What a great conversation Mark is able to communicate the truth of what is happening with ease. Unfortunately the zombies seem to be holding our economy hostage at the moment.
they are intent on weakening america while claiming to be patriots ...
Could Jerome Powell possibly be one of these "zombies" you are referring to?
@@bouji_ it's a term used by Paul Krugman to describe Republican economic policy.
@@charlesputnam9370 That guy is kind of a jerk, so it doesn't surprise me that "zombies" is his term. Anyway, I'm guessing Jerome Powell does fall under his definition of it. He probably wants negative interest rates.
@@bouji_ If you want to know how it works you need to take an economic s course. Jerome Powell at the moment is raising interest rates trying to get inflation down by slowing the economy. We had very low interest rates for a long time.
it is really hard to say that the US is a market economy nowadays.
No one can say that who is informed on the topic. Therefore it's a good weed out question; ask it and those who say it is should not be taken seriously.
About half-way through this and really enjoying what Mark has to say but so far I found one major issue was that he said banning chip exports to China increases their chances to invading Taiwan... to get said chips. However, TSMC would be useless to China as it operates on US software, constant updates to said software, among many other foreign components. So, quite the opposite.. the chip ban is actually a deterrent and makes China more dependent on Taiwan.... and less likely to win a war due to not being able to update their military nearly as much.
Well, it's a judgment call, I'd say. I think the Taiwanese use Dutch machines or something. If you believe they are depenednt US software updates, the question becomes how hackable they are, or how much of the controlling software (and hardware) could be replaced. The real intelligence in such precision engineering is presumably on the mechanical hardware side. It's the physical precision that counts. But of course the real threat is that either Taiwan or the US will destroy those machines in the case of an invasion as they have promised.
So how badly is China blocked out of the chip markets? If the answer is not that badly, i.e. let's say they they are lag one fab precision behind, a couple of nanometers isn't going to inconvenience them that much. If they get inconvenienced, they'll put more money in developing domestic capability and may some day catch and/or be able to compete globally in that area.
If a chip ban hampers them too much, they may simply roll the die on the invasion because that becomes sort of a win-win: either they capture the machines or they get destroyed, depriving the all of the world, including the US, the most advanced capability as well as some ridiculously hugh percentage of the total global capacity. They would take a hit too, obviously, but it would level the playing field. Of course, if that ended with capability left in the West, limited as it would be in the capacity, it would only have short-term benefits and you'd have the West imposing even more sanctions. And, yes, China is the world's factory, but even a factory needs buyers (and food for workers).
In the end it is a question of whether Xi thinks they could weather the results and if it is worth it. If they can catch up suitably domestically, they could decree that it should be used instead. You might be able to just go massively parallel to bridge such tech gap.
Assuming China cannot upgrade its chip industry is short-sighted.
China can score a diplomatic coup by declaring Taiwan a separate and independent country named Taiwan.
The interesting comment about how markets don't naturally result in competition struck me so hard. I finally realized the perfect rebuttal to the naturalism argument (people arguing free unfettered market because nature always finds balance.) The rebuttal is "Nature doesn't refine balance and competition. The pinnacle of evolution was human beings which dominates nature and holds all life at their mercy. "
An innate tendency towards monopoly and oligopoly are his description of the prevailing situation. And he's one hundred percent right. Free enterprise, free trade, free markets... just insidious and pervasive corporate propaganda.
Thank God there are some sane people still on UA-cam, it’s been literally feeling like the USD has become the “this is the end of the world” prediction that never happens again and again, I hope info like this starts getting out there more
Blyth predicted Brexit and Trump in 2016. There is definitely a lot of nonsense around. Mark cuts through most of it.
U are talking in your sleep. .. just like the Guest Speaker.. let's see in 5 to 8 years time.. how China- Russia with the support of 85 percent of the world population reduce the use of USD .. let get the facts.. currently only less than 60 percent of trade in USD not 70 percent as stated by this half sleeping guest speaker that was 10 years ago data.... while some bilateral trade by barter are not in the Swift System.. ..
Great interview. I think there is a trend happening that is being missed though which is that the end of US Dollar dominance doesn't seem to be happening but the end of US Dollar hegemony is.
Blyth mentions buying wheat, which is mostly done in prices denominated by US Dollars. However with the sanctions on Russia, now wheat is available in much of the Global South in prices denominated in rubles. Importantly, though, payments are not necessarily settled in rubles but rather in any number of currencies at rates set daily by the Russian Central Bank. I noticed that prices for wheat flour significantly declined here in Indonesia where I am currently living once the RCB started setting rates for IDR to Ruble exchanges. It was also widely reported here that in the last year Indonesia had procured deals with Russia to replace Ukrainian wheat imports with Russian ones.
I suspect that large economic players are likely to start doing something similar, particular as something of a sanctions hedge or going through a middleman like Russia as such a hedge. And while that does not mean the end of US dollar dominance in reserves, it does likely mean the end of US dollar hegemony and that is something I think we are seeing right now.
That is a very plausible hypothesis 💡
You're confusing hegemony (a political concept) with what it means for a commodity to be denominated in a currency; the wheat market remains denominated in US Dollars. Plus, Indonesia doesn't get much if any wheat from Russia - Indonesia gets most of its wheat from Australia (Indonesia's largest source), Argentina and Canada; Ukraine was the second largest source, and Russia offered to replace Ukraine in 2022, but that was never a serious option because the cost of insurance for shipping alone would make it too expensive.
@@Eideric Of course stats for where folks buy stuff lags behind. What I can say is that there is virtually no grain coming in from Ukraine these days -- there were wheat shortages that were rapidly resolved before the grain deal took effect and now grain is flowing from Russia.
I am sure Russian insurance can cover the shipping.
@@WorldTravelerCooking Of course there's little or no wheat from Ukraine: the point is that contrary to your earlier assertion, Indonesia is getting very little if any wheat from Russia. The latest stats from Q1 2023 and 2022 show that, and given the nature of the contracts, that won't have changed in the last 2-3 months. And neither does this affect the fact that the global market continues to be denominated in US Dollars.
Insurance costs are going to be higher whoever insures Russian wheat, making it uncompetitive.
Good point.
Really insightful conversation, helped by good questions. Bring Mark back again. Well done.
Thank you for tuning in! We’ll be happy to have Invite Blyth on the show again🙃
Mark is a legend !
what a concise interview that was. I thank you both.
Thank you for tuning into our channel!!
ASEAN countries are also shifting away from the dollar because of their fear of sanctions imposed by the US whenever they feel inclined.
Really enjoyed that!
Thank you, sirs.
Great interview! Very insightful for me.
Thank you so much for tuning in!
a great many people are determined to escape the dollar, and various methods are already flowering. it won't happen over-night, but as people drift away, the process will gather speed.
Well said
don't know if the usd will melt, but if wishing will do it, it's warming as we speak.
Mr Blyth, imperious as ever.
Mark Blyth, a guy that that can eloquently cut right through the BS. Which sadly means not near enough people will listen.
Great interview. And, perhaps more importantly, you win the prize for Best Outro Music!! Nice groove. ;-)
Thank you so much for tuning in! I am so glad someone noticed the music and liked it 🙃 it was very fun producing it 👏🏽
He’s wrong on his assumption that’s others can’t do nothing...
Spot on
Why does it cut off at the 20:00 mark?
Great interview! Always love to hear from Mark Blyth. But the subtitles were of very poor quality. Might be worth it to pay someone a little bit to subtitle your videos (I'm always available 🙂). Otherwise, excellent work!
thank you for the great suggestion :) we appreciate you tuning in!
Nice new insight.
Good diScussion
So you have this as a podcast? 😊
The interesting question is not whether it will go away tomorrow, it's whether the vast majority of the world has any alternative but to try, when their countries are already inevitably set to make American finance profit vastly from war and climate damage.
He got it wrong about one simple thing: both the USA and the EU are hell bent on self-destroying
Sometimes there are no buyers at the T bills auction.
Thank you new to your videos great presentation great guest..... World starting to make sense even with me 😂
Welcome to the channel Jalal! And thank you for tuning in👏🏽
@@letsjusttalkwithhammi thank you all the best with your work 👍
A valuable conversation. The comments about Neoliberalism explain the reality of inflation which is the ability of those with price-setting/raining power to increase prices. That means to impose liabilitie$ on the rest of us so that we are forced to transfer more of our relatively few a$$ets to those who already have most of the a$$ets. Thus, we get more inequality. We have fewer resources for the populace and more for the wealthy. Homelessness and food insecurity falls out of that.
Thank you for your insights! We truly appreciate you tuning in!!!
On the contrary, the chinese have developed a new and far superior chip. Which goes into mass production this year.
Seems like a very interesting interview but over edited. I would love to see a unedited version.
Thank you for your feedback! You are not missing out on much, as we only cut the “ums” and “pauses”. However, we see how that made the video seem over-edited. Moving forward we will be careful about this. Thank you again for your feedback.
Interview Michael Hudson on this same topic for a counter perspective
When the title doesnt understand the content.
Great interview, but we need Dolby NR 😅
Thank you for the suggestion! We'll make sure to apply denoiser to our future videos!
People all over the world know very well that by trading in dollars they are basically financially supporting the US. America's huge trade deficit and the dollar as a reserve currency at the same time allow the USA to consume huge amounts of the domestic economy without adequate production and comparative exports. The use of the dollar has huge geopolitical implications. Basically, the whole world through the FED and speculation on Wall Street, contributes to America's colossal armed forces, military-industrial complex, intelligence services, disproportionately high consumption and disposal of ecology. So, various players on the international scene often act against their own interests by trading in dollars. That will change perhaps as early as this decade, and I think Mark is greatly underestimating the shift in geopolitics. It must be remembered: Global economics is only a result of Geopolitical reality and not the other way around.
I think the shift to to the BRICs currency is inevitable, given their economic power will eclipse Europe and US combined by the end of this decade.
Does China allow free flow of the Yuan. Did China not impose capital controls in 2015 ?
they dont need to. they are not sepeculating
@@sed9406 cope
This is a Lex Friedman interview waiting to happen.
He'll never be on Lex's podcast.
Could they exchange the dollar for CBDC?
Right.
why do we talk abut countries not having dollars when it maybw companies who are buying oil wheat etc?
you can be sure that the taiwan chip plants will not remain intact if they are invaded and it takes many years to rebuild .. they might as well just make them in china ..
china can make them in a few years. why would taiwan ally with the useless usa? they have 2m people who work on the mainland. usa tries to move on taiwan, china sinks the fleet with hypersonics
Why are there so many jumpcuts?
When our enemy's interests are aligned with our major political parties
First, great interview. Second, get someone else to do the subtitles and your editing and audio. The white noise and the wrong cuts are killing me.
Thank you for the feedback. We are working to improve on your suggestions. Hope you see the improvements in our newer episodes!
He also says republicans have a different perception of the economy compared to democrats which are contrary to the indicators. This could probably be explained by how people interact with the economy based on class and social status. The republicans trend towards the hard power in America. If you're a truck driver, small business owner, oil worker, farmer, tradesman, industrial worker a cop or an enlisted man or an officer in a combat role in the military you're probably a republican which means the current regime hates you and is doing everything it can to ruin you. The stated goal of the democrats is to abolish farming, oil and the basic means you need to support yourself and force social credit scores and CBDC's on everyone which is pretty bad. You have also been hard hit by inflation.
Democrats tend towards the soft power in the economy. If you have a cushy job in the civil service or you're a HR lady or a diversity officer or you work in a Gates or Soros funded NGO or censoring people on big tech then things are pretty good. "Work" from home. Or you sit at home all day dealing drugs from your section 8 housing while working suckers pay your welfare then things under the current regime look pretty good for you.
But isn't the German economy blown up? I mean no more dirt cheap Russian oil.
The big elephant in the room that wasn't mentioned, and which will change America's trading/power base, is oil. The BRICS countries are quickly stepping away from previous deals/sales and directing markets to the East. Also, America's current sales boost to the EU, forced by their proxy war against Russia, will also fall apart in my opinion because it is unsustainably expensive.
If the American oil industry wants to sustain transatlantic market to prepare for reduced domestic demand, they should incentivize it with price concessions and build a multinational transport infrastructure.
The fact that Saudi Arabia is shifting its oil trades away from the dollar and trading directly with Eastern Asia in their currency is another major event.
@@yumpladukfoo he may be wrong but he is also, unlike all the Brics currency fanboys, not completely ideologically driven and simply hoping for a change based on hatred of the US. He interprets facts as he understands them and proceeds accordingly. you should try it sometime.
@@brianrothrock5893 trade currency is not very important. the currency countries hold their reserves in is.... amazing, ironic even how much of this interview was focussed on "people believing everything that reinforces their world view and not paying attention to the facts"..... and then in the comments all the BRICS currency hopium goes on to ignore every one of his points. hate them as much as you like but there is a reason the US treasury is not worried about any of this.
absolutely clueless - dollar hegemony existed when the US was a net energy importer. Everyone is moving toward renewable anyway. reserves are still held in ..... wait for it..... dollars. India and China will not join a currency union while China is encroaching on Indias borders and remains so much more powerful than india. It will not happen outside of BRIC fanboy wet dreams. with chinas economy tanking, housing crisis, demographic issues - india may not have to wait too long before it can push china around the way china is doing to all of its neighbours.
They should but I doubt they will.
Nothing like ignoring the Triffin Dilemma. Idiocy in academia, Mark Blythe.
Everything works until it doesn't,if not ask the British with the British pound, and the American economy is a house of cards.Who wants Tesla when you can a better and cheaper electric car from China.
the British pound is still .. STILL!!! one of the top 10 reserve and trade settlement currencies in the world - a gradual decline over a century. which is what is most likely to happen to the USD - all this hopium that USD will explode in months is just inane nonsense.
quick google search puts GBP at 4th.... what was your point again?
to be honest thios was disappointing. For instance nobody said that this will happen tomorrow and nobody thinks about it in a binary way, weakening the dollar dominance is already huge ( the consequences).
.... and there are 100+ countries using LCS now😅
India and Russia are two of the largest exporters of wheat.... You don't need dollars for that....
United States, Canada, France, Ukraine are the following largest wheat exporters after Russia. Russia can’t supply the planet
a simple google search will say that India is no where close to top 5, also India produces a lot but almost all of that goes to indian market, nothing new in that.
as far as dollars not being need to buy wheat, well the buyers need to have access to russian currency and capital markets and that is not there anymore.
@@rushabhchodvadiya3939 nothing changes overnight... It starts slowly.. when countries realise they can buy goods without the need of the dollar, they'll slowly dump it.
@@yaseenmoulana1521 it’s not about needing dollars. They need to use money and it makes sense to use a standard, stable currency. It would be ridiculous to dump it unless what you’re using is what other people are using.
Im 20 years listening to Anglo financial experts predicting the demise of the euro.
he didnt predict its demise, he simply said, with EU and Germany as its beating heart being trade surplus economies - becoming a global reserve is highly unlikely.
"To buy wheat, you need dollars, right?"
The US and US-aligned countries (US, EU, Canada, Ukraine) constitute four of the world top 10 wheat producers, totalling 236 million tonnes/year. The other six (China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, Argentina) produce nearly 400 million tonnes/year. It doesn't seem beyond the wit of the majority producers to come up with a non-$ exchange system.
Mark Blyth has the absolute certainty of everyone who has ever been completely confident in the continuation of the status quo up until the very moment it was overturned.
Of those other six, half of them are wheat importers - China, Pakistan, Turkey. So while they produce a lot, they buy even more. They don't have enough to sell.
India also eats most of their wheat, exporting less than Romania (2021 numbers) despite producing 12x as much.
It is the exporters, not the producers you want to look at for this. 7 of the top 10 are US aligned countries, of the non US aligned, only Russia is in the top 5.
@@terrylfluckiger9113 Good point - thank you!
Looking more deeply, it seems that some of the largest exporters are also significant importers (maybe different times of the year/different kinds of wheat?), so that complicates things a bit.
I suspect my general point about the growing difficulty of the US maintaining a stranglehold over international trade still holds - as witnessed by its inability to bring Russia to its knees through economic sanctions.
Commerce, like water, has a tendency to find paths around obstacles. The privileged position the US dollar holds in the global trading system is based on trust. If that position is weaponised, trust will be undermined. Bad policy decision have an uncanny ability to bring about the opposite outcome to the one intended (e.g. the 'war on terror' fostering a growth in terrorism rather than a reduction). Similarly on trade, America may be strengthening its adversaries by overplaying its hand.
I don't think the Chinese are looking to replace the dollar or edge it out next year. Unlike the US, they seem to have the patience to play the long game. Slowly erode it until it falls.
Slowly erode the dollar. Good luck with that.
@@julianshepherd2038 Haven't you heard? Yellen's begging Japan and China not to sell USD bonds lol
@@julianshepherd2038 Saudi Arabia has already begun this process in a major way by bypassing sales of oil to East Asia in their currency rather than the dollar. This is major!
@@accountantthe3394 75% of US debt is owned internally so China selling US bonds wouldnt make much difference (while it would hurt somewhat, China would also be destroying its savings). Recall what happened to Pimlico Bill Gross, remember the bond market vigilantes? Gross sold billions of US bonds, made no difference tanked Pimlico and later published a mea culpa.
China is running out of time, last decades of growth model is over. Demographics, housing crisis, end of free tech transfer from the west. almost everyone is wary of china now. If i had to bet on a BRIC country's currency taking over it would be rupee not RMB. China has no solution to perennial trade surplus and export driven economy. read Michael Pettis (advises the chinese gov, prof at peking uni)
Sounds fiscally responsible
This was a brilliant conversation and Mark's take raises the unexpected such as by banning access to chip technology encourages a Taiwan invasion , ok, but I think Jinping was/is going to do it regardless .and by using extreme intimidation hopes to get it without firing a shot , but the island still holds out .On trade with China does , say, Walmart, does it pay in $'s or renminbi and cant that change on the whim of the CCP ??
it's already ending now
cope
I like Blyth on a personal level, but he is the personification of the Russell quote, “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”
He speaks incredibly authoritatively, yet has a truly terrible record of predictions (even within the field of economics). There are a number of predictions here that have already proven to be false.
Having said this, he is certainly fun to listen to, though I hope that no one really takes him seriously.
He keeps saying that commodities are priced in dollars and yet Russia is a massive exporter of numerous commodities and in most category's China is an importer and many nations in the global south get their wheat and other commodities from Russia. Seems like there are plenty of willing buyers. It seems to me that the plan is ultimately to under write these trades in gold as a backer which explains why Russia and China have purchased so much of it.
Russia is selling india its oil virtually at a loss, india is processing and selling on to the rest of the world at great margin in.... USD. China - Russia bilateral trade is marginal to the global situation.
No, the US dollar will be reserve currency for at least this century. China, Russia, Euro, Bitcrap, ponzicoin 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂. I usually agree with Mark however he seems to not see China’s imminent demographic and industrial collapse.
China is less likely to collapse than USA at this point since they produce something that other people want while USA runs massive trade and financial deficits. Automation is replacing jobs.
@yumpladukfoo By whom?
like most on the left which mark is (as am I fwiw), china is a massive blind spot. see Adam Tooze (who i admire for many other reasons) for another exaple. Michael Pettis is the only left wing commentator worth listening to on China (that i've found)
I would argue that the biggest incentive for dedollarisation is not the vulnerability to be sanctioned and cut of global markets.
By dedollarising world trade and treasuries, you are able to limit the capability of the United States to have the biggest military in the world. As long as the printing press of the world is located in the United States, they can spend as much money as they want onto the military industrial complex.
But what if nobody wants your currency? Are you still able to wage war against the rest of the world? Are you able to sustain 800 bases around the world?
So, in my view, BRICS+S are aware that it's in their national security interest, to establish a new reserve currency to live in peace.
Have you got any idea what is going on between India and China? The idea that these two countries will enter a currency union is ludicrous - google it - india is not playing ball. Did you pay any attention to the video at all? If most of these countries want to counter US power all they need to do is stop being trade surplus economies. Easier said than done.
"The UK economy is going to grow slower than Russia." Yeah it might be true in the UK case but it's a poor argument to use to try to argue the sanctions on Russia are causing no damage Mark... We see the effects of Russian political corruption on the battlefield. Is their army what the officers, generals and their military industry claimed it was? Nope, it's a field of untrained folks sent out in tanks where the reactive plates were filled with cardboard instead of the real fillers. Can you trust Russian statements of economic growth? Nope. Especially when Russian capital controls to try to save their currency in effect were to prevent Rubles from leaving the country (and the government's hands moreover) meaning, countries buying oil with Rubles aren't able to sell anything to really get more back... driving up the price of the dwindling supply of Rubles for foreign exchange. This is not a country that has a bright long term future, especially when their chief sanctions avoiding export target, China isn't interested in even using the full capacity of the existing oil pipeline and isn't selling Russia anything that it actually needs.
Well growing slower than russia or just a bit more is the same for the uk.
The UK was able to cover their governmental incompetence by having the best deal in the EU, and now that is not possible anymore
@@sciencefliestothemoon2305 To quote Peter Zeihan "Brexit proves that the British shouldn't be in charge of anything ever." It's not really just the choice for Brexit, it's how they handled that choice as well. Their government spent what... 6 years trying to negotiate "Brexit" without actually having the trade terms of leaving the EU. That simply wasn't going to happen.
So in essence instead of accepting the vote of the English people and structuring a new trade system (probably with the US at head sadly) they spent six years doing absolutely nothing at all as no deal Brexit was the only way it was going to happen and they were delusional to think otherwise.
Don't get me wrong.... I actually believe Brexit to be the moral choice. The EU is how continental Europe managed to subvert American imposed liberalism after 50 years of effort. No elected official in the EU government is allowed to draft, propose, or call for the repeal of a law. They are only allowed by the rules to rubber stamp what unelected officials give them. It's a farce of a democracy designed to subvert the very principles of liberalism that the US has been imposing post 1945. The problem is that the British government thought it was right and correct that the public actually doesn't get a say in politics and were outraged that the public voted to get out of the EU and have a say in the way their society is run.
Ukrainian bot 😊😊
We don't look at facts? What economy is he living in? Oh, yeah, he can afford inflationary prices. And he is an ivory tower philosopher. He has no clue what the average person has to contend with.
The second stupid things this guy says this time, china doesn’t have to invade Taiwan to have good chips, they can to develop his own chips and they are doing so, they are development chips completely away from the silicon system and they will no longer need ASLM any more!,, this guy needs more research, very disappointed conversation.
This man is a smart. But in the first 5 minutes he makes several foolish statements (a couple of examples below).
1. He starts by saying countries still have to buy oil, so they'll need dollars.
That is true, if the sellers only accept dollars. But today, Russia/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela today already started selling oil in currencies other that dollars. Same goes for the '70-75%' other things nations buy.
2. He says holders of Treasury Bonds (China, for example) will hold on to them forever.
That is not true. As confidence in US economy, their ability to rein in deficits, falls, the worries that US Treasury bonds will fall in value rises. China and others will then try to dump their Treasury Bonds. (Like the last straw on the camel's back) USA's ability to deficit finance will not gradually fall, the tap will shut off suddenly.
The idea that neoliberalism is leading to oligopoly/monopoly and screwing workers is a very perceptive though.
regarding point #2. If China dumps US treasuries
(they actually don't own anywhere near what people think - 868billion - so if they would dump them it would be a small effect on the dollar but would destroy their own savings. 75% of US debt is owned internally by Americans - its called private sector savings. Even now no matter what the 10 year US treasury bond is people are buying it and getting a return that is less than inflation.
What does that tell you?
As far as dumping US t bills - look what happened to Bill Gross of Pimco when he tried to do that a few years ago. The bond market vigilante got bit on the ass. Bonds tanked, investors howled and he had to issue a mea culpa.
Lucky there were subtitles, i could hardly understand the guy with the bow tie. Why do americans talk funny?
They don't have to blow up their business model themselves, though. They can just let the US blow up Nordstream 2, and boom there goes your export model that's premised on guaranteed access to infinite cheap russian gas. So question is what happens now that German industry will be moving out.
At a certain point your trade partners get fed up with mercantilist export countries - regardless of where their energy comes from.
@@riccles8331 Which country are you talking about exactly? That aside, imperialist practices exist to prevent such "fatigue" from leading anywhere.
@@fjdhaan export countries - trade surplus countries - Germany and china (the biggest beneficiaries of post Regan thatcher globalized world)
@@riccles8331 lol. Okay so the germans and chinese are the problem but not the US which gives pieces of paper to other countries in exchange for actual goods and services. Marvellous logic.
To buy wheat you don’t need dollars, you need rubles!,, I sincerely expect more from this guy, very disappointed!
he explains the difference between trade settlement and reserves. pay more attention.
He might be a good economist, but speculating that "China will invade Taiwan and win" is just meh. First, economical perspective: China's economy is 85% export. If they get under sanctions - they are done. Second, military perspective: China has no chances against NATO in direct confrontation. And China understands it very well. And NATO has enough military bases close to Taiwan to protect it.
How delusional! That just proves just prove just how out of line NATO from their purpose.
In case you missed it, avoiding war hurts NATO bad. They have ran out people of colour to kill.
NATO??? Are you serious? Couldn't defeat Taliban.
NATO is a military alliance based in Europe whose official purpose is to deter the Russian Federation from attacking one of its members. It's not supposed to be for stopping the People's Republic of China from regaining by force an island that is already recognised by the UN as being its own territory.
Mark Blyth is a socialist economist. Professor Richard Wolf is a Marxist economist. Patrick Minford is a Conservative economist. Greg Mankiw is a Conservative economist.
I prefer accountants. Economics has as much credibility to me as astrology. Economics is to accountancy as astrology is to astronomy.
Blythe a socialist? That is new .
@@sciencefliestothemoon2305 please state why he is not. Just because he's not a self indulgent fantasist doesn't make him not a socialist.
nonsense - if you could only study and comment on things that were 100% fact based and binary there would be no study of anything. top tip - predicting the future is usually wrong...
Blow up the German business model. Oh they did that they blew up the gas line.
and thats who's fault?
I think china can do it ,because China trade with 130 plus countries in the world.they can used r m b with out problems .us trade half of it only
as a trade surplus nation with a closed capital account access to RMB is far too limited. mark explains this in the video - watch it again. Rupee is far more likely if the horizon is multiple decades. China has already missed the boat.
Its funny how a guy that is supposedly a Keynesian doesn't believe at all in the prescriptions of Keynes. The Alternative to the dollar was prescribed by Keynes long ago, it is called the Bancor. That's what China and Russia are designing, a modern version of Bancor for the growing list of countries that would want in to such a system. The dollar standards isn't the world's currency. Its just the Anglosphere's currency. It get used by the rest of the world so long as that trade with the Anglosphere remains profitable. But the Anglosphere is so selfish they won't let anyone profit from trading with them so other people will have to stop trading with the Anglosphere and that currency will remain exactly just what it is, the currency for the Anglosphere.
Nope.
"The Fed estimates that between 1999 and 2019 the dollar accounted for 96% of trade invoicing in the Americas, 74% in the Asia-Pacific region, and 79% in the rest of the world. Banks used the greenback for around 60% of all international deposits and loans. "
nope x2 "But the Anglosphere is so selfish they won't let anyone profit from trading with them" how is it that the Anglosphere runs persistent trade deficits and Germany and China run massive trade surpluses? where has chinas growth over the last 30+ years actually come from. Do you have any idea what you are talking about - you couldn't be more wrong.
@@julianshepherd2038 This is such denial. You need to check the trend on what is happening rather than what has happened ages ago. No one says the USD is done already. What people say is that the trends suggest the USD will be far less relevant going forward and may not be relevant in another 5 years.
If you check the trend, USD usage has fallen a lot, from virtually 100% at its height to now just over 50%. This goes in lockstep with their decline economically from near 50% of global GDP and near 40% of global manufacturing to now just over 20% of global GDP and just over 16% of global manufacturing. The FED data you are relying on is also not good. It only covers what happens in SWIFT because the FED has no idea what goes on outside of SWIFT. If you look at the Chinese's own reporting of their own transactions, they already report that they clear more than half of their trade using CNY and conduct more trade with BRI partners than the combined west.
If you google there is a prominent economist that been saying recently he believes that China has a dark pool of 3 trillion of USD which they have hidden. He gets this by following the precise trade numbers and concluding that what the Chinese earn and spend in USD don't add up. According to him there is 3 trillion of missing USD that he is convinced the Chinese have hidden. Now if you could read Chinese and follow Chinese economists you would know that this money has been spent to buying hidden assets in the 3rd world and lent out to replace USD loans for 3rd world countries. This is why the most recent wave of USD money printing produced so much inflation. Rather than soaking up the inflation by taking in dollars and putting them under the mattress the Chinese and other Asians have been circulated all the money back into the global economy. This is making all 3rd world holders of USD antsy and worried about offload their own USD as well. That's why the Saudi's went off the Petro-dollar. The Brazilian's are doing trade with China in CNY. The Indians pegged the rupee to the CNY instead of the USD. Even Argentina has signed a deal with the IMF to repay its USD loans in CNY.
At the end of the day everything should be obvious from the massive bout of inflation the west has experienced when practically no inflation hit Asia. That happening means that the USD are coming back to the US with a vengeance. It is no longer the situation where you can just print USD and have the Chinese and rest of Asia carry all the inflation by vacuuming up the USD and working more. The new situation is that as soon as you print the USD it comes right back to you and feeds domestic inflation. You can now raise interest rates to try to discipline the Asians by threatening to take back more dollars but the problem is that they are calling your bluff and will just keep sending you more dollars back if you ask for them. With that happening inflation is just going to keep going up as more dollars come back. You got to understand the real dynamics of how this works. If the Asians get scared into hording dollars again, US inflation will fall and Asian inflation will rise. If on the other hand they become even bolder in their willingness to sending USD back then it is a one way ticket to persistent high stagflation for the west. Right now we are deep in the act of the US bluffing the world with economic Armageddon but then getting their bluff called by China and the rest of the "non-anglosphere" world.
@@riccles8331 You have been brainwashed by the Keynesians to fundamentally misunderstand economics. Allowing people to run trade surpluses with you is not a selfless act of sacrifice. That's like saying a customer running up their credit card in your store is some kind of great sacrifice that that customer has made to benefit your store. When the debts come due and the customer refuses to make any payments on their credit cards it is you the store owner who has made great sacrifices to benefit your customer. Not only have the Chinese have been selling products at a tiny fraction of their real utility value to the consumer to the US for 30+ years, they've even allowed a large portion of this to be paid for by credit cards that will be defaulted upon. Now its time for them to cut their losses and stop running their charity.
Like a drug dealer the Chinese have got the USA hooked on cheap manufactured goods but are now beginning to make them pay for it.
Thanks for the captions. I can hardly understand that leprechaun sounding guy.
because you are ignorant and racist, he is Scotish, not Irish. Also, train your ear. A bit of brain training for you.
Shrek not leprechaun ..
He lost me on climate change.
Mark... United States had the reserve currency from the 40s, they didn't start running regular deficits until 2001!
The US ran deficits every year between 1970 and 1998.
Even worse then.. Defaulted on the Bretton wood standard after the 25-year war in Vietnam.
Gold will replace dollars, not yuan