It's interesting that after trying so many indicators and reading so many price actions, I ultimately realized that the good old moving average was most useful.
Yeah same here, I guess it was the sense of longing, hoping to find something that really gives you the best probability out if everything. And the idea that the more unique or complicated an indicator was, meant that it was better or slightly more effective than anything else.
i use some others too but i realize that the MA's are all you need. it's like, when you're a noob, you avoid the fight. when you're a beginner, you look for fights. when you're a master fighter, you avoid the fight too.
@@KavishJhaveri12 the signals only get bad when there are extremely bad impulse moves but at that point you'd recognize the big moves and well, personally I avoid those moments.
Hi Gareth. On review, the 200 day MA strategy only works for the pandemic crash because the dip occurred in late February 2020. If it had occurred in the first week of February 2020, the draw down would have been around 30-35% with the proposed strategy (at least by my calculations). My suggestion is that one never takes more than a 10% loss on SPY and gets out quickly at that point. Alternatively get out quick as soon as the price falls below the 200 day MA. It is always possible to buy back cheaply when the price goes back above the 200 day MA. Dealing costs for SPY are relatively low.
You are right indeed, a solution to that might be a simple rule of two days of closings below 200MA before seeling pos or two days of closing above to go long, wonder what would it do to the results
Another option is to use daily but with a 2-4% latch. You wait for it to drop lower than 2-4% of the DMA to get out and the inverse to get in. It minimizes whipsaw. Or waiting on the weekly. I think I've read somewhere that the 125 DMA offers the best Sharpe & Sortino Ratio.
I would probably use the 200DMA strategy with a trailing stop loss of 15-20% as shown in an other video to prevent bigger loss in case of crash. Would that make sense? Im studying for a job where i'll be working 1 month in- 1 month off and I'm looking for a strategy i could use while away for the month. The 200 DMA would be pretty easy to implement.
@@VinDub18 That's probably a good strategy. If you're trading an index, like SPX, you can probably afford a 10-15% stop loss (currently 400-600 points) if you're primarily a buy and hold investor. I personally think 20% is too much. (Short term traders tend to use stops below 5% for the SPX.) For buying back, which is always the tricky bit, I think you might be better off using the exponential moving average and buying when the 5 day or 10 day EMA crosses above the 200 day EMA. The 10 day gives slightly better confirmation than the 5 day, but risks buying back at a slightly higher price. This is just my own opinion and not advice. Good luck.
After a terrible 2022, shell-shocked financial backers have a lot to think about and losses to recover from. An expansion report and a wealth of other data did little to alter assumptions that the Central bank would likely keep raising interest rates regardless of whether the economy slows down. This implies that portfolios will experience more losses during the first quarter of 2023. I'm currently at a crossroads deciding whether to exchange my $250k security/stock portfolio; how might the continuous market volatility work to my advantage?
Concentrate on two main objectives. First and foremost, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks to reduce losses and maximize gains. Second, prepare yourself to gain from a market turnaround. I advise you to seek the advice of a representative or financial counselor
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv In fact, ever since Coronavirus, I've been in regular communication with financial examiners. Nowadays, buying moving stocks is quite easy; the trick is knowing when to buy and when to sell. The section and leave orders for my portfolio are made by my counsel. accumulated more than $550,000 from a $150,000 savings that was initially stale.
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv She is KRISTIN GAIL CUNNINGHAM , my consultant. Since then, she has devoted section and leave attention to safeguards that I have been keeping an eye out for. You can locate information about the chief online, on the off chance that you're interested. I made no regrets about substantially adhering to their exchange strategy.
@@harrisonjamie794 sincerely thank you I looked her up on the internet and was awestruck by how qualified she was; I contacted her since I need all the help I can get with canning. I've just scheduled a call.
The greater the automated income you can build, the freer you will become. Taking the first step is the hardest, but 5 houses later living off automated income since July 6, 2016. You’ve got to start taking steps to achieve your goal.
Wow!!! I know *ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* and I have been growing with her since 2017. Her expertise has been the best for my financial journey. I have created a passive income over the years and life feels really better and easy for me. I feel so delighted to read these good reviews about her
Thanks for sharing. What are the annual returns for each year from. 2000 to 2016? With starting point of 2000, the comparison is inherently biased against buy and hold. It should be compared across different time frames and starting points in addition to looking at annual returns.
Thank you so much for your videos. I think the next question I have is how you know which index mutual fund to pick. They have large cap , mid cap, small cap, and international fund. Do you apply the same strategy? How do we do the back test for different funds? For example, one investor have this. 40% international fund 40% large cap fund 20% small cap fund If one fund is below 200 day SMA, we exit and keep cash. The other is not below 200 day SMA, we keep. The portfolio is not diversified or balanced anymore. Is that going to affect the performance of the returns?
Great video, but why were the buy and hold results different for each test? Since it’s the same comparative strategy for each test, I would expect the buy and hold returns to be the same each time.
Because it would be unfair if the had different starting points, i,e buy and hold could only be measured from the first entry point of the Moving Average being measured
[regarding the 200D sma] Not sure if initial capital and the exact last day of month matter, but I tested w/ 10K i.c. and every 30 trading days as my time gap; did not even get close to what you are saying. return was %84 w/ max draw down of 9.6%, buy and hold was 164% return. If this tells me anything, either the last day of the calendar month has some significance or shifting the days has a dramatic affect on this strategy. It's hard to believe the former.
I just today backtested it in Python and I also found that it significantly underperforms buy and hold. Over the period 3-1-1928 until 22-12-2023, buy and hold: 267.7 times initial investment, 200-day MA strategy: 188 times initial investment. The gap is too large to be attributed to the randomnes of 'what day of the month you make the decision each month'. A robust strategy wouldn't be dependant on such an arbitrary decision. I also tested it for the NASDAQ, with disappointing results again.
Thanks again for another amazing video! I've watch most if not all of your videos. What's most helpful about your videos, in addition to the way you make things easy to understand, is the fact that they let you see and compare different strategies easily. What I find interesting about the different strategies is that they have many elements in common. Thanks again and keep up the good work.
Thanks for the great explanations and insight! I'd also add; adding to your long positions on those nasty drawdowns is icing on the cake. The whole point of staying in the market through those gut wrenching draw downs, is to be able to get more of your stock at a discounted price, thus making those next new market highs that much sweeter!
Thanks a lot for the analysis on different strategies. But could you kindly tell me what you mean by 'Cash only position' in the 50 & 200 crossover strategy?
I did a back test of these strategies on my own to see if you were accurate. It seems to be accurate but something very interesting happens when you do the calculation from 1/1/2000 to 8/7/2024. The buy and hold kicks all those other methods butt by a long shot.
I really appreciate your efforts! I need some advice: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
Only problem I have with this analysis is the years used to back test which was an extremely bullish period with easy monetary policy which we will likely not see again for awhile
I will backtest a strategy, that rotates into utilities, when SP500 is below 200DMA and rotates into 2xlev SP500 if it is above 200DMA. Also working with the monthly closes, but I might try out weekly closes as well. I think to beat the markets, it is better to act and react more slowly, cant beat the algos on speed anyway.
Nice video!.....Thank you!....It effectively works on index only....If we apply it on individual stocks and waiting of one month to confirm 200MA then the drawdown will be more I think!!!
Love the videos, such clean and to the point information. What's the easiest way to find these trades though? Prior to the Ma's crossing lines? Take you need to put it in a scanner but have no idea what to enter
> 200 Moving Average On 200 MA, use daily stock prices. Signal should only be acted once at the end of the month. At the end of the month if the price closes above the 200 MA, take a Long Position. And, at the end of the month if the price closes below the 200 MA, exit the position and stay in cash.
Wow, I wasn't sure Holly & Steve were widely known! I found most of their Stolly Media output informative, especially their classic 'Moving Averages 101'
Great perspective on the handling of different ma's. However, can you discuss how these or others can be used to swing trade, holding for a few days to weeks?
I think the only reason the drawdown of the 200ma was less than other strategies and in range of the 250ma during the pandemic because the fall was very swift and coincidentally must have happened during end of Feb.. Because during a swift fall if we wait for end of month to react... It would be too late
Thanks a lot for the video... I take trades in fundamentally strong stocks... Ones with good profitability, RoCE and RoE and then combine it with technicals like moving average cross overs especially 20ema crossing 200ema... And the journey till now has been quite rewarding..could instantly relate to your video... Can back it with practical experience 👍👍👍
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
When people have money, they spend it. And some people spend more money when they have more of it. If you want to improve your financial management, you should consult with a financial advisor.
@@SkepticalMechanic-l9x That's right, you can avoid the traps of lifestyle inflation by consulting an expert advisor to help you plan for your short- and long-term goals; it all comes down to proper guidance. Over the past two years and six months, I have seen my income build wealth and now have a fully paid off house and at least $650,000 in stocks. All this is the result of subsequent investments with my savings and the application of expert advice.
@@viewfromthehighchairr Nice, who is the Financial Advisor aiding you if this is not much i'm asking? my retirement plans are going down the drain with my 401k particularly losing everything it gained ever since 2021.
@@viewfromthehighchairr I looked up NICOLE online using her fullname and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Financial market current position, goals and scheduled an appointment. Thanks
Speaking from experience. I am you now at 50 yr old. I pushed myself in the right direction but a little late. You still have time. 1) if you do, stop drinking alcohol. PERIOD. Not even glass of wine blah blah.. 2)stop smoking cigarettes/vaping if you do 3) Stop Drinking Coffee 4) stop ALL sugar consumption / Junk food / fast food 5) stop consuming meat! 6) *** EXECUTE 1-5 All at Once *** 1-5 are things I have done in life which has had a very poor Risk/Reward ratio. There is no Longterm Reward for any of those habits (risk) And watch your life change and watch the money you save$ go through the roof. When your mind and your life is clear of distraction/issues you’ll see clearly what you should do to get to the life you want. Keep in Mind that 1-5 are the most marketed habits on tv. Best wish!
I use 6, 13, and 30. Enter 50% position at the 6/13 cross and 100% position at the 13/30 cross. Then exit 100% of position when the 6/13 cross again. I also trade 5% of account equity when shorting above 200 dma and buying below. Then use 10% of account equity when shorting below 200 dma and buying above 200 dma.
Didn't Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett invent the strategy of buying/investing when the market is low and also buying/investing when the market is high? As Warren Buffet said, he has seen this happen many times in his life. Not an investor. My wife and i never earned more than a middle class salary. We plan to get retired at 58 with a stock portfolio worth $4M. We have never sold so much as one share of stock...
It really isn’t about how much you save, it’s about how you manage your money. Whether you work to earn income or invest, it still boils down to income vs expenses, so yeah you may look into financial advisors for a strategy that suits your timing....
i've been doing this same thing myself. Can't get into trouble with the IRS when I have no income and all my money is in stocks. I don't like doing the work though. Lol. So I just invest through an advisor who does the stock picking. My money grows, and I'm tax-free...
@@martingiavarini Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc
@@hermanramos7092 Have you heard of‘’Catherine Morrison Evans’’ ? She gets featured regularly on CNBC. I myself use tax-deferred accounts to hold my investments. That way I avoid capital gains taxes. There are other options your advisor could brief you about....
@@martingiavarini Thank you. I just checked her out now and I've sent an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. I've been thinking of doing this for a long time now, and I've procrastinated enough already.
Great videos. Probably asked before, but what would happen to the returns if you short SPY at the cash crossover? I would love to see a video on that comparing these strategies. If you want to ignore dividends, i suppose the spx would be just as effective as a proxy. Furthermore, for a buy/short approach it would be best for an investor to avoid negative dividends and just focus on the asset value.
Bro, Could you please post the videos regarding volume action and volume profile!!.... I've already learned breakout and trend following strategy from your videos!...
Isn't the 200 DMA monthly strategy incredibly susceptible to luck? Depending on when a crash happens, I could end up either getting out very early or ending up at the bottom. I wonder if that system would also benefit from a stop loss.
I dont really understand why de "buy and hold" strategy for the same time period (2000-2016) has different returns in each moving average comparation: 125% in the first stratetgy, 127% in the second strategy, 167% in the third strategy. I suppose you are measuring the buy and hold from the trigger of the first entry signal?? is that true? I would consider more appropiate to give the buy and hold strategy from the 1st january of 2000
You have made me learn so many things about the market, I cannot even put into words. You are the best channel I have ever subscribed to. My sincere gratitude towards your hard work and helping us reach new heights. Be blessed.
Thanks for the educational video. I thought that the most interesting part was the illustration of how much of a drawdown the various death cross scenarios would have caused. I would have liked to have seen you illustrate how much of the recovery the various golden cross points would have missed as well.
I did my own backtest of the strategy where you wait for the end of the month and use the 200 MA to decide whether buy, hold or stay in cash. It dit not perform the same way, am I doing something wrong?
I think the data in the video is cherry picked. It is sensitive to what day of the month you choose. I would want to see much longer backtests at different timing offsets and for other markets too.
Fascinating video. I've been burned by some yield traps recently (or, more accurately, I burned myself). In any event, I'm determined to be a more disciplined investor and very much appreciate your content. However, I'm confused by the varying returns of buy and hold compared to the different MA scenarios. I must obviously be missing something. Can anyone clarify?
Just to point out that the S&P 500 is currently just under the 200 day EMA but not yet at the 250 day EMA. This could be a great time to test out the above strategy. Based on a fundamentally strong US economy, I propose, cautiously, to start buying SPY & VUSA.
I'm commenting about 3 years late. Just wondering how would the 200 MA strategy compare to the buy and hold method when we do it from 2000 - 2016 on a year-by-year basis? Would love to know what it looks like.
Backtested. Buy and hold miles better. The index went from 160 to 1281 (8 fold). It missed the 1987 crash in absolute terms. Unfortunately it always loses a few % before the uptrends and in choppyness, and got in at highs and out at lows twice in 1991 (-11%) and 1994 (-4%) - when compounding this matters. On backtesting it got 350% vs 669% gain Buy and hold 1/1/84 to 1/12/99
why does the buy and hold percentage gain from 2000-2016 vary between different strategies. Shouldn't buy and hold be the same across all strategy comparisons? 200 DMA is 125.2% 250 DMA is 127.4% 50x200 is 167% 20x200 is 161% 50x100 is 104%
@@FinancialWisdom thank u so much bro, I am I from india . Really enjoying u r work . Because you , I bought stan Weinstein book and completed it . Really enjoying the book . loving u r work so much❤️❤️❤️🙏👍
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Welcome!
It's interesting that after trying so many indicators and reading so many price actions, I ultimately realized that the good old moving average was most useful.
Yeah same here, I guess it was the sense of longing, hoping to find something that really gives you the best probability out if everything. And the idea that the more unique or complicated an indicator was, meant that it was better or slightly more effective than anything else.
i use some others too but i realize that the MA's are all you need.
it's like, when you're a noob, you avoid the fight. when you're a beginner, you look for fights. when you're a master fighter, you avoid the fight too.
Don't you guys think it gives delayed signals 🤔
@@KavishJhaveri12 the signals only get bad when there are extremely bad impulse moves but at that point you'd recognize the big moves and well, personally I avoid those moments.
Filters (RSI, Stochastic, etc) only are used to provide comfort to the trader. Good traders do what is uncomfortable.
Hi Gareth. On review, the 200 day MA strategy only works for the pandemic crash because the dip occurred in late February 2020. If it had occurred in the first week of February 2020, the draw down would have been around 30-35% with the proposed strategy (at least by my calculations). My suggestion is that one never takes more than a 10% loss on SPY and gets out quickly at that point. Alternatively get out quick as soon as the price falls below the 200 day MA. It is always possible to buy back cheaply when the price goes back above the 200 day MA. Dealing costs for SPY are relatively low.
Thanks William, yes you are right, an element of timing luck here...
You are right indeed, a solution to that might be a simple rule of two days of closings below 200MA before seeling pos or two days of closing above to go long, wonder what would it do to the results
Another option is to use daily but with a 2-4% latch. You wait for it to drop lower than 2-4% of the DMA to get out and the inverse to get in. It minimizes whipsaw.
Or waiting on the weekly.
I think I've read somewhere that the 125 DMA offers the best Sharpe & Sortino Ratio.
I would probably use the 200DMA strategy with a trailing stop loss of 15-20% as shown in an other video to prevent bigger loss in case of crash. Would that make sense? Im studying for a job where i'll be working 1 month in- 1 month off and I'm looking for a strategy i could use while away for the month. The 200 DMA would be pretty easy to implement.
@@VinDub18 That's probably a good strategy. If you're trading an index, like SPX, you can probably afford a 10-15% stop loss (currently 400-600 points) if you're primarily a buy and hold investor. I personally think 20% is too much. (Short term traders tend to use stops below 5% for the SPX.) For buying back, which is always the tricky bit, I think you might be better off using the exponential moving average and buying when the 5 day or 10 day EMA crosses above the 200 day EMA. The 10 day gives slightly better confirmation than the 5 day, but risks buying back at a slightly higher price. This is just my own opinion and not advice. Good luck.
After a terrible 2022, shell-shocked financial backers have a lot to think about and losses to recover from. An expansion report and a wealth of other data did little to alter assumptions that the Central bank would likely keep raising interest rates regardless of whether the economy slows down. This implies that portfolios will experience more losses during the first quarter of 2023. I'm currently at a crossroads deciding whether to exchange my $250k security/stock portfolio; how might the continuous market volatility work to my advantage?
Concentrate on two main objectives. First and foremost, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks to reduce losses and maximize gains. Second, prepare yourself to gain from a market turnaround. I advise you to seek the advice of a representative or financial counselor
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv In fact, ever since Coronavirus, I've been in regular communication with financial examiners. Nowadays, buying moving stocks is quite easy; the trick is knowing when to buy and when to sell. The section and leave orders for my portfolio are made by my counsel. accumulated more than $550,000 from a $150,000 savings that was initially stale.
@@harrisonjamie794 Please provide the information for your investment advisor here. I really need it now.
@@MarcusFred-wn3iv She is KRISTIN GAIL CUNNINGHAM , my consultant. Since then, she has devoted section and leave attention to safeguards that I have been keeping an eye out for. You can locate information about the chief online, on the off chance that you're interested. I made no regrets about substantially adhering to their exchange strategy.
@@harrisonjamie794 sincerely thank you I looked her up on the internet and was awestruck by how qualified she was; I contacted her since I need all the help I can get with canning. I've just scheduled a call.
The greater the automated income you can build, the freer you will become. Taking the first step is the hardest, but 5 houses later living off automated income since July 6, 2016. You’ve got to start taking steps to achieve your goal.
What kind of investment would you advise? And what is the best way to follow it?
Wow!!! I know *ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER* and I have been growing with her since 2017. Her expertise has been the best for my financial journey. I have created a passive income over the years and life feels really better and easy for me. I feel so delighted to read these good reviews about her
Although my biggest winners have resulted from “buy and hold,” I love the simplicity of moving averages strategies.
As always a simple and to-the-point explanation, with perfect graphics to go with it! Thank you 🙏
Glad you liked it!
Thanks for sharing. What are the annual returns for each year from. 2000 to 2016? With starting point of 2000, the comparison is inherently biased against buy and hold. It should be compared across different time frames and starting points in addition to looking at annual returns.
excellent. i use 10 and 20 EMA frequently
my mind is blown that this is actrually effective....the more you learn the less you know
Thank you so much for your videos.
I think the next question I have is how you know which index mutual fund to pick. They have large cap , mid cap, small cap, and international fund. Do you apply the same strategy? How do we do the back test for different funds?
For example, one investor have this.
40% international fund
40% large cap fund
20% small cap fund
If one fund is below 200 day SMA, we exit and keep cash. The other is not below 200 day SMA, we keep. The portfolio is not diversified or balanced anymore. Is that going to affect the performance of the returns?
Wow - Love how you explain so simply and succinctly with the perfect amount of visuals! Thx for making it easy for everyone!
Great video, but why were the buy and hold results different for each test? Since it’s the same comparative strategy for each test, I would expect the buy and hold returns to be the same each time.
Because it would be unfair if the had different starting points, i,e buy and hold could only be measured from the first entry point of the Moving Average being measured
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Perhaps the 200MA and a WEEKLY position action frequency would be better.
[regarding the 200D sma] Not sure if initial capital and the exact last day of month matter, but I tested w/ 10K i.c. and every 30 trading days as my time gap; did not even get close to what you are saying. return was %84 w/ max draw down of 9.6%, buy and hold was 164% return. If this tells me anything, either the last day of the calendar month has some significance or shifting the days has a dramatic affect on this strategy. It's hard to believe the former.
I just today backtested it in Python and I also found that it significantly underperforms buy and hold. Over the period 3-1-1928 until 22-12-2023, buy and hold: 267.7 times initial investment, 200-day MA strategy: 188 times initial investment. The gap is too large to be attributed to the randomnes of 'what day of the month you make the decision each month'. A robust strategy wouldn't be dependant on such an arbitrary decision. I also tested it for the NASDAQ, with disappointing results again.
@@Ramschat I found the same results.. The drawdown is reduced, but it does not out perform.
Thanks again for another amazing video! I've watch most if not all of your videos. What's most helpful about your videos, in addition to the way you make things easy to understand, is the fact that they let you see and compare different strategies easily. What I find interesting about the different strategies is that they have many elements in common. Thanks again and keep up the good work.
Thanks Mitsu - Really means a lot🙏👍
One of the best contents on trading. Thanks a lot for the contents.
Glad you think so!🙏👍
Your videos is the best of the best. I appreciate all your videos.
Thanks!
Thanks for the great explanations and insight!
I'd also add; adding to your long positions on those nasty drawdowns is icing on the cake. The whole point of staying in the market through those gut wrenching draw downs, is to be able to get more of your stock at a discounted price, thus making those next new market highs that much sweeter!
Yet another excellent video that every investor should watch. Thanks.
Much appreciated!
May God bless you with even more abundance and success brother! This is an amazing very well done book summary 👌
Thanks Aymen, same to you... Much appreciated
@@FinancialWisdom is the 200 day MA used, in the experiment on historical data, a simple MA or exponential MA?
Thanks a lot for the analysis on different strategies. But could you kindly tell me what you mean by 'Cash only position' in the 50 & 200 crossover strategy?
No position, cash is in your bank.
When you state DMA, is that the same as SMA?
Fantabulous, thank you very much Sir for this enlightenment
Excellent Video! How about MACD compare to 200 day MA? What about 150 day vs 200 day MA? IF you have back testing data, would appreciated!
Hi Frank I dont have the data sorry, could be worthwhile though...
I did a back test of these strategies on my own to see if you were accurate. It seems to be accurate but something very interesting happens when you do the calculation from 1/1/2000 to 8/7/2024. The buy and hold kicks all those other methods butt by a long shot.
It would do, because you can only start the study from the point of the moving average cross
I really appreciate your efforts! I need some advice: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
Thank you very much you gained a new subscriber.
Awesome, thank you!
Only problem I have with this analysis is the years used to back test which was an extremely bullish period with easy monetary policy which we will likely not see again for awhile
Awesome content 👍🏼
Thank you 🙌
Great content ! Love your animations, very whimsical 😊
I will backtest a strategy, that rotates into utilities, when SP500 is below 200DMA and rotates into 2xlev SP500 if it is above 200DMA. Also working with the monthly closes, but I might try out weekly closes as well. I think to beat the markets, it is better to act and react more slowly, cant beat the algos on speed anyway.
Thanks Tom. Sounds a solid plan
This is such good content I'm in awe..I had massive losses in 2020 this looks beautifully simple to understand.
Thanks 🙏
Nice video!.....Thank you!....It effectively works on index only....If we apply it on individual stocks and waiting of one month to confirm 200MA then the drawdown will be more I think!!!
Yes, correct
Namaste brother,
Amazing effort on all videos n presentation. Thank you
You're most welcome👍
I wasn't sure which one to use, now this has convinced me.
Good to hear👍
Love the videos, such clean and to the point information. What's the easiest way to find these trades though? Prior to the Ma's crossing lines? Take you need to put it in a scanner but have no idea what to enter
Been waiting for ages XD, Love ur content bru
Glad you enjoy it!🙏
Great vid. Has this 200 DMA strategy been back tested against individual stocks?
I would love to hear your thoughts on the 13 and 48 MA swing strategy and if it is as good as the Yahoo post, (yes its old)
Dear Sir, Can you please guide or prepare video on only 50 Day Sma (price crossover sma) and aldo SMA 200, Please
>
200 Moving Average
On 200 MA, use daily stock prices.
Signal should only be acted once at the end of the month.
At the end of the month if the price closes above the 200 MA, take a Long Position. And, at the end of the month if the price closes below the 200 MA, exit the position and stay in cash.
I never understood this but it’s starting to make sense
Great Presentation. Thanks for "clarifying the wisdom".
Glad you enjoyed it!
Awesome video
A really useful piece of backtesting. Thanks.
You're very welcome!
love videos with statistical metrics
Thanks Tim, yes i do try, it makes them more informative i think...👍
You are simply awesome! This is the the best financial education channel out there, period
Wow, thank you!
Great video! Thank you for explaining these strategies, I always wondered about their significance.
Thanks for watching...
From philippines here. Amazing channel!
Thanks! 😃
Wow, I wasn't sure Holly & Steve were widely known! I found most of their Stolly Media output informative, especially their classic 'Moving Averages 101'
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great perspective on the handling of different ma's. However, can you discuss how these or others can be used to swing trade, holding for a few days to weeks?
I think the only reason the drawdown of the 200ma was less than other strategies and in range of the 250ma during the pandemic because the fall was very swift and coincidentally must have happened during end of Feb.. Because during a swift fall if we wait for end of month to react... It would be too late
Well spotted Zailsinh, my observation also...👍
Thanks a lot for the video... I take trades in fundamentally strong stocks... Ones with good profitability, RoCE and RoE and then combine it with technicals like moving average cross overs especially 20ema crossing 200ema... And the journey till now has been quite rewarding..could instantly relate to your video... Can back it with practical experience 👍👍👍
@@zailsinh Great stuff... Your method of combining technical and fundamentals is a great philosophy...
what would be the best strategy for a 401k that has a 24 hour delay to process entry and exit orders.
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
When people have money, they spend it. And some people spend more money when they have more of it. If you want to improve your financial management, you should consult with a financial advisor.
@@SkepticalMechanic-l9x That's right, you can avoid the traps of lifestyle inflation by consulting an expert advisor to help you plan for your short- and long-term goals; it all comes down to proper guidance. Over the past two years and six months, I have seen my income build wealth and now have a fully paid off house and at least $650,000 in stocks. All this is the result of subsequent investments with my savings and the application of expert advice.
@@viewfromthehighchairr Nice, who is the Financial Advisor aiding you if this is not much i'm asking? my retirement plans are going down the drain with my 401k particularly losing everything it gained ever since 2021.
@@viewfromthehighchairr I looked up NICOLE online using her fullname and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Financial market current position, goals and scheduled an appointment. Thanks
Speaking from experience. I am you now at 50 yr old. I pushed myself in the right direction but a little late. You still have time.
1) if you do, stop drinking alcohol. PERIOD. Not even glass of wine blah blah..
2)stop smoking cigarettes/vaping if you do
3) Stop Drinking Coffee
4) stop ALL sugar consumption / Junk food / fast food
5) stop consuming meat!
6) *** EXECUTE 1-5 All at Once ***
1-5 are things I have done in life which has had a very poor Risk/Reward ratio.
There is no Longterm Reward for any of those habits (risk)
And watch your life change and watch the money you save$ go through the roof.
When your mind and your life is clear of distraction/issues you’ll see clearly what you should do to get to the life you want.
Keep in Mind that 1-5 are the most marketed habits on tv.
Best wish!
How can u connect ur programmed Startegy with a broker?
For example u have a strategy programmed in Tradingview?
thanks for sharing, I'm a beginner who joined the nfc community.
this was actually amazing.
Thanks Tom!
Can we combine a moving strategies + a stop loss ?
Absolutely
How are there different Buy and Hold performances for the S&P for the same timeframe possible?
They start at different points depending on when the MA was triggered
I use 6, 13, and 30. Enter 50% position at the 6/13 cross and 100% position at the 13/30 cross. Then exit 100% of position when the 6/13 cross again. I also trade 5% of account equity when shorting above 200 dma and buying below. Then use 10% of account equity when shorting below 200 dma and buying above 200 dma.
Thanks you give me inspiration. I will backtest this strategy
Congratulation sir...nice video and very informative...keep it up...
So nice of you, i'll try..
Your content is very helpful and informative. I learned every time more and more by watching your channel, Keep uploading, please
Good to know thanks
Didn't Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett invent the strategy of buying/investing when the market is low and also buying/investing when the market is high? As Warren Buffet said, he has seen this happen many times in his life. Not an investor. My wife and i never earned more than a middle class salary. We plan to get retired at 58 with a stock portfolio worth $4M. We have never sold so much as one share of stock...
It really isn’t about how much you save, it’s about how you manage your money. Whether you work to earn income or invest, it still boils down to income vs expenses, so yeah you may look into financial advisors for a strategy that suits your timing....
i've been doing this same thing myself. Can't get into trouble with the IRS when I have no income and all my money is in stocks. I don't like doing the work though. Lol. So I just invest through an advisor who does the stock picking. My money grows, and I'm tax-free...
@@martingiavarini Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc
@@hermanramos7092 Have you heard of‘’Catherine Morrison Evans’’ ? She gets featured regularly on CNBC. I myself use tax-deferred accounts to hold my investments. That way I avoid capital gains taxes. There are other options your advisor could brief you about....
@@martingiavarini Thank you. I just checked her out now and I've sent an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. I've been thinking of doing this for a long time now, and I've procrastinated enough already.
Man! I can’t thank you enough for this videos, you’re really enlightening us.
Glad to hear it!🙏👍
Which Software/Homepage can i use for so a kind of Backtest?
Amazing content, with great presentation and clear explanations. Much appreciated, keep up the great work!
Much appreciated!🙏👍
Superb. I have been trading for more than a decade. Read everything under the sun. Your videos are too too good. 👍
Great 👍Thanks Successhighway🙏
Great videos. Probably asked before, but what would happen to the returns if you short SPY at the cash crossover? I would love to see a video on that comparing these strategies. If you want to ignore dividends, i suppose the spx would be just as effective as a proxy. Furthermore, for a buy/short approach it would be best for an investor to avoid negative dividends and just focus on the asset value.
I loved this book. Thanks for breaking it down even more than my understanding.
You're so welcome!
Bro, Could you please post the videos regarding volume action and volume profile!!.... I've already learned breakout and trend following strategy from your videos!...
Sure 👍
Isn't the 200 DMA monthly strategy incredibly susceptible to luck? Depending on when a crash happens, I could end up either getting out very early or ending up at the bottom.
I wonder if that system would also benefit from a stop loss.
I dont really understand why de "buy and hold" strategy for the same time period (2000-2016) has different returns in each moving average comparation: 125% in the first stratetgy, 127% in the second strategy, 167% in the third strategy. I suppose you are measuring the buy and hold from the trigger of the first entry signal?? is that true? I would consider more appropiate to give the buy and hold strategy from the 1st january of 2000
Fascinating.... would need to become emotionally systematic to succeed but this is a beneficial approach.
Being systematic helps...
can we use same strategies for crypto? which one better? in your opinion.
very imformative. salute sir
Possibly, you would need to back test, my last video is how i trade crypto using the MACD indicator
@@FinancialWisdom thanks sir
You have made me learn so many things about the market, I cannot even put into words. You are the best channel I have ever subscribed to. My sincere gratitude towards your hard work and helping us reach new heights. Be blessed.
Wow, thank you Jay! really means the world to me that i'm able to make a difference, thanks🙏👍
Great content. Thanks. I have a questions, which Time Frame we should plot these MAs?
Thanks for the educational video. I thought that the most interesting part was the illustration of how much of a drawdown the various death cross scenarios would have caused. I would have liked to have seen you illustrate how much of the recovery the various golden cross points would have missed as well.
Fair point, yes there is usually a compromise...
Your videos are super interesting, and fun to watch.
I appreciate that!
Thank you for all the amazing videos! A real gold mine of info. Priceless.
I did my own backtest of the strategy where you wait for the end of the month and use the 200 MA to decide whether buy, hold or stay in cash. It dit not perform the same way, am I doing something wrong?
I think the data in the video is cherry picked. It is sensitive to what day of the month you choose. I would want to see much longer backtests at different timing offsets and for other markets too.
Fascinating video. I've been burned by some yield traps recently (or, more accurately, I burned myself). In any event, I'm determined to be a more disciplined investor and very much appreciate your content. However, I'm confused by the varying returns of buy and hold compared to the different MA scenarios. I must obviously be missing something. Can anyone clarify?
I love your videos! Not only educational but entertaining as well!
Happy to hear that!
Great content
Respect from India... 👏👏👏
Your videos are awesome.
Really helping me ...
Thanks for such a wonderful work.
My pleasure!
Just to point out that the S&P 500 is currently just under the 200 day EMA but not yet at the 250 day EMA. This could be a great time to test out the above strategy. Based on a fundamentally strong US economy, I propose, cautiously, to start buying SPY & VUSA.
I'm commenting about 3 years late. Just wondering how would the 200 MA strategy compare to the buy and hold method when we do it from 2000 - 2016 on a year-by-year basis? Would love to know what it looks like.
Excellent review sir.
Thank you kindly!
Is there data on this before 2000? Would you get similar results (better than buy & hold) from lets say 1984-2000?
Hi Edward, without back testing I would not know, but the principle is sound.
Backtested. Buy and hold miles better. The index went from 160 to 1281 (8 fold). It missed the 1987 crash in absolute terms. Unfortunately it always loses a few % before the uptrends and in choppyness, and got in at highs and out at lows twice in 1991 (-11%) and 1994 (-4%) - when compounding this matters. On backtesting it got 350% vs 669% gain Buy and hold 1/1/84 to 1/12/99
Can you suggest gold trading strategy will this kind of backtested results.
I will take a look soon.
I was waiting for your video Good work
Thank you so much 😀
Great job!
Thanks!
why does the buy and hold percentage gain from 2000-2016 vary between different strategies. Shouldn't buy and hold be the same across all strategy comparisons?
200 DMA is 125.2%
250 DMA is 127.4%
50x200 is 167%
20x200 is 161%
50x100 is 104%
No becuase the moving averages start at varying points. It would be an incorrect comparison otherwise
If I sold when price cross below moving average & next day price open gapup ( I MISS GAP UP
Any eventuality is possible, its all about probabilities. Some you win some you lose.
Can this be used for other stocks or is it only S&P 500? I am new to this, but using one of your videos of stop loss placements has really helped. W
Hi Ugochukwu, without backtesting specifically I would assume the concept is suitable for all diversified indexes and ETF's👍
Which time it is most suitable for 200 DMA
Your content is excellent, keep going! Would rather listen to you than read! Love your videos :)
Thanks, means a lot!🙏
Thank You
Thank you!
Hi sir , please try to review the AL Brooks books 🙏
Hi, I will get around to one at some point i'm sure... my list is growing😀
@@FinancialWisdom thank u so much bro, I am I from india . Really enjoying u r work . Because you , I bought stan Weinstein book and completed it . Really enjoying the book . loving u r work so much❤️❤️❤️🙏👍