Walker Harrison - Kick or Receive? Determining Optimal NFL Playoff Overtime Strategy via Simulation

Kick or Receive? Determining Optimal NFL Playoff Overtime Strategy via Simulation by Walker Harrison
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Abstract: This year's Super Bowl was the first to feature an overtime period under the NFL's new playoff rules, which guarantee that each team will possess the ball in the added time. The San Francisco 49ers opted to have the first possession, subsequently lost, and were roundly criticized for not forcing their opponent to start with the ball. But did they actually make a poor strategic decision? To answer this question, we can simulate overtime periods by re-sampling historical plays under some added constraints.
Bio: Walker has loved sports and math ever since he could read a box score. After completing his master's degree in statistics in 2019, he joined the New York Yankees front office as a quantitative analyst. In his free time he likes to explore public datasets and blog about R.
Twitter: / walkwearscrocs
Presented at the 2024 New York R Conference (May 16, 2024)
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